Research Needs for Research Needs for Critical Loads and Critical Loads and

LevelsLevels

A.R. Riebau, Ph.D.A.R. Riebau, Ph.D.17 Feb 200517 Feb 2005

Riverside, Ca.Riverside, Ca.

Do we want a North Do we want a North American approach?American approach?

Canada, Mexico, Canada, Mexico, USA?USA?

A.R. Riebau, Ph.D.A.R. Riebau, Ph.D.17 Feb 200517 Feb 2005

Riverside, Ca.Riverside, Ca.

Greetings from the NAFC Greetings from the NAFC Working Group on Working Group on

Atmospheric Change and Atmospheric Change and ForestsForests

Our group is established under Our group is established under the UN FAO to coordinate efforts the UN FAO to coordinate efforts between Mexico, Canada, and between Mexico, Canada, and the USA on forests, air quality, the USA on forests, air quality, and climate change.and climate change.

NAFC = North American Forestry Commission

NAFC Atmospheric Change NAFC Atmospheric Change and Forestsand Forests

Three governmental agencies Three governmental agencies primary leads:primary leads:

Canadian Forest Service (Dr. Harry Canadian Forest Service (Dr. Harry Hirvonen, Roger Cox, others…)Hirvonen, Roger Cox, others…)

Mexican Forest Service or CONAFOR Mexican Forest Service or CONAFOR (Ing. Carlos Gonzoles-Vincete, Tomas (Ing. Carlos Gonzoles-Vincete, Tomas Hernadez)Hernadez)

USDA Forest Service (A.R. Riebau, Mark USDA Forest Service (A.R. Riebau, Mark Fenn, Karl Zeller, Rich Fisher,others…)Fenn, Karl Zeller, Rich Fisher,others…)

Website: http://www.fs.fed.us/global/nafc/

Research needs:Research needs:

Development of a program that Development of a program that links ground level measurements, links ground level measurements, models, and remote sensing in to models, and remote sensing in to one cogent program.one cogent program.

Ground-level data Ground-level data collectioncollection

Linking existing data:Linking existing data: Fairly easy:Fairly easy:

NADP/NTNNADP/NTN CASTNETCASTNET IMPROVEIMPROVE ARNEWSARNEWS US EPA Federal reference US EPA Federal reference

Ground-level data Ground-level data collectioncollection

Linking existing data:Linking existing data: Fairly easy:Fairly easy:

US DOI NPS Air MonitoringUS DOI NPS Air Monitoring USDA FS Air Resource USDA FS Air Resource ManagementManagement

LTER/experimental Forests and LTER/experimental Forests and watersheds watersheds

Ground-level data Ground-level data collectioncollection

Linking existing data:Linking existing data: Fairly hard:Fairly hard:

US FIAUS FIAMexico?Mexico?

LTER/ NEON??LTER/ NEON??

Ground-level data Ground-level data collectioncollection

We need research to We need research to capitalize on our exisiting capitalize on our exisiting data for CL&L while data for CL&L while designing an approach for designing an approach for new data collection new data collection (nested opportunistic (nested opportunistic network)network)

What was Humble our plan What was Humble our plan from last year’s meeting?from last year’s meeting?

Develop a system of a system Develop a system of a system of demonstration sites.of demonstration sites.

Develop a methods Develop a methods comparison paper, to explain comparison paper, to explain parallels between ICP and parallels between ICP and recent North American critical recent North American critical loads approaches.loads approaches.

Candidate CL & L Candidate CL & L demonstration sites (as of May demonstration sites (as of May

2004)2004) :: Presidential Range, NH Presidential Range, NH Lye Brook, VT Lye Brook, VT Hubbard Brook, NH Hubbard Brook, NH Monongahela National Forest, WV Monongahela National Forest, WV Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiment Site Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiment Site

WY WY Kings River Project, CA Kings River Project, CA San Bernardino National Forest, CASan Bernardino National Forest, CA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Columbia River Gorge National Scenic

Area, OR/WA Area, OR/WA

Candidate CL &L demonstration Candidate CL &L demonstration sitessites

Presidential Range, NH Presidential Range, NH Lye Brook, VT Lye Brook, VT Hubbard Brook, NH Hubbard Brook, NH Monongahela National Forest, WV Monongahela National Forest, WV Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiment Site WY Glacier Lakes Ecosystem Experiment Site WY Kings River Project, CA Kings River Project, CA San Bernardino National Forest, CASan Bernardino National Forest, CA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, OR/WA Columbia River Gorge National Scenic Area, OR/WA

Just an aside—Just an aside—

Is this still a good idea? How might we move this forward?Is this still a good idea? How might we move this forward?How about Canada and Mexico?How about Canada and Mexico?

Research needs:Research needs:

Development of a program that Development of a program that links ground level measurements, links ground level measurements, models, and remote sensing in to models, and remote sensing in to one cogent program.one cogent program.

Models and Models and Modeling?Modeling?

Methods Comparison PaperMethods Comparison Paper

Modeling methods are really Modeling methods are really the driving issue, as several the driving issue, as several modeling approaches have modeling approaches have been in use.been in use.

Policy implications (need to Policy implications (need to work with ICP on these).work with ICP on these).

ICP Modeling and MappingICP Modeling and Mapping

Need to gain more Need to gain more understanding of ICP understanding of ICP approaches.approaches.

Applications of techniques and Applications of techniques and emissions permitting process.emissions permitting process.

Policy implications of analyses.Policy implications of analyses.

Models and Models and Modeling?Modeling?

But what about…But what about…

Modeling and MappingModeling and Mapping

Can we capitalize on the NOAA/EPA Can we capitalize on the NOAA/EPA Air Quality Forecasting Program Air Quality Forecasting Program (for the USA)?(for the USA)?

Weather at high resolution (8 or 6 KM)Weather at high resolution (8 or 6 KM) OzoneOzone ParticulatesParticulates DepositionDeposition

Modeling and MappingModeling and Mapping

Can we capitalize on our Can we capitalize on our ecosystems modeling for ecosystems modeling for global change (LANDIS, global change (LANDIS, others)?others)?

Fire ecology models? Fire ecology models?

Many moreMany more

Modeling and MappingModeling and Mapping

The point is can we “imbed” The point is can we “imbed” this nested opportunistic this nested opportunistic network within a framework network within a framework of on-going simulation of on-going simulation initiatives to:initiatives to: Gain spatial coverageGain spatial coverage Gain temporal coverageGain temporal coverage Gain usefulness & creditabilityGain usefulness & creditability

Research needs:Research needs:

Development of a program that Development of a program that links ground level measurements, links ground level measurements, models, and remote sensing in to models, and remote sensing in to one cogent program.one cogent program.

Remote Sensing?Remote Sensing?

Remote SensingRemote Sensing Can we capitalize on the new programs Can we capitalize on the new programs

being developed by NASA and NOAA?being developed by NASA and NOAA?

Terra/Aqua MODIS (forest and ecosystem Terra/Aqua MODIS (forest and ecosystem health) health)

NPOESNPOES

New “troposphere” atmospheric satellites New “troposphere” atmospheric satellites

Automated dronesAutomated drones

Remote SensingRemote Sensing

The point is can we these on-The point is can we these on-going RS initiatives to:going RS initiatives to: Validate suspected damageValidate suspected damage Separate highly sensitive areas Separate highly sensitive areas

from lessfrom less Gain spatial coverageGain spatial coverage Gain temporal coverageGain temporal coverage Gain usefulness & creditabilityGain usefulness & creditability

ConclusionsConclusions

We are in this for the “long haul.”We are in this for the “long haul.”

Although many of the old problems aren’t Although many of the old problems aren’t solved, new approaches could change the solved, new approaches could change the relevancy and urgency of these problemsrelevancy and urgency of these problems

Might this convergent system approach Might this convergent system approach (e.g., on-ground to simulation to remote (e.g., on-ground to simulation to remote sensing) better align us with the larger sensing) better align us with the larger science communityscience community

This view-point might draw much interest This view-point might draw much interest from other sources and partnersfrom other sources and partners

Farewell but not Farewell but not goodbye… we goodbye… we

really need to a really need to a long-term long-term

relationship!relationship!

Website: http://www.sgcp.ncsu.edu/criticalloads/