research paper - european economic and social committee · i university of applied sciences kiel,...

I

University of Applied Sciences Kiel, Faculty Agriculture, Osterrönfeld

in Cooperation with

ife Food Research Institute Kiel

Research Paper

Economic Analysis of EU Dairy Sector Development beyond 2015:

Trade, Exports and World Market Integration

Prof. Dr. Holger D. Thiele1,2 , Dipl. Ing. Erhard Richarts2,

Dr. Henrike Burchardi2

1 University of Applied Sciences Kiel, Faculty of Agriculture, Am Kamp 11, D-24783

Osterrönfeld (Rendsburg), Germany, Phone: +49 (0)431-845-128, Email: [email protected], www.fh-kiel.de

2 ife Institute of Food Economics, Research, Fraunhoferstrasse 13, D-24118 Kiel,

Germany, Phone: +49 (0)431-2609-8600, Email: [email protected], www.ife-ev.de

Kiel / Rendsburg, September 2013

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.fh-kiel.de/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ife-ev.de/

2

Content

List of tables ................................................................................................... 3

List of figures .................................................................................................. 4

1 Executive Summary ................................................................................ 6

2 Introduction ........................................................................................... 8

3 Demand of milk - EU and world: trends, outlook, determinants ............. 9

4 Milk production – EU and World markets: trends, outlook, determinants .........................................................................................22

5 EU exports and milk prices/values: trends, outlook, determinants ........25

6 Economic Statements for future development of EU Dairy Sector beyond 2015 ..........................................................................................31

7 Annex ....................................................................................................32

List of tables

3

List of tables

Table 1: World import demand of different dairy products – Forecast

of OECD/FAO until 2022 .......................................................................... 11

Table 2: Calculated surplus of EU dairy products will increase by 11 %

until 2022 ................................................................................................ 24

Table 3: Dairy Trade of the European Union from 2011 to 2013 and

forecast for 2017 and 2022, converted into Milk Equivalents

(1,000 t) ................................................................................................... 26

Table 4: Interdependence between World market prices and EU

market prices in the case of butter, skim milk powder and

the raw milk in two periods .................................................................... 29

Table 5: Demand for Dairy Products: Whole Milk Powder 2011 and

Forecast for 2017 and 2022 .................................................................... 32

Table 6: Demand for Dairy Products: Liquid Milks and Fresh Dairy

Products 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022 ..................................... 32

Table 7: Demand for Dairy Products: Butter, AMF, Ghee 2011 and

Forecast for 2017 and 2022 .................................................................... 33

Table 8: Demand for Dairy Products: Skim Milk Powder 2011 and

Forecast for 2017 and 2022 .................................................................... 33

Table 9: Demand for Dairy Products: Cheese 2011 and Forecast for

2017 and 2022 ......................................................................................... 34

Table 10: Demand for Dairy Products: All in terms of milk equivalent

2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022 .................................................... 34

Table 11: Calculated Surplus for Dairy Products in the European Union

2011, 2012, and Forecast for 2017 and 2022 ......................................... 35

List of figures

4

List of figures

Figure 1: World population development and forecast until 2025 ......................... 9

Figure 2: Population development in the EU-27, EU-15 and in the EU-

12 new members from 1990 until 2025 ................................................. 10

Figure 3: Annual growth rates of world population, EU-27 population

and EU-12 new members population in % from 1990 until

2025 ......................................................................................................... 10

Figure 4: Demand for all dairy products in milk equivalent terms until

2022 in m.t. ............................................................................................. 15

Figure 5: Demand for liquid milk and fresh products treated by dairy

companies until 2022 in m.t.................................................................... 16

Figure 6: Demand for skim milk powder until 2022 in m.t. ................................... 18

Figure 7: Demand for whole milk powder until 2022 in m.t. ................................. 19

Figure 8: Demand for butter, AMF, Ghee until 2022 in m.t. .................................. 20

Figure 9: Demand for industrially produced cheese until 2022 in m.t. ................. 21

Figure 10: World milk production development until 2022 (OECD-FAO

forecast) .................................................................................................. 22

Figure 11: Development of the EU milk production in the EU-27, EU-25,

EU-15 and EU-12 from 1990 until 2022 .................................................. 23

Figure 12: Development of the EU milk exports 1999 until 2013, m.t.

milk equivalent ........................................................................................ 25

Figure 13: Forecast of EU dairy exports in m.t. milk equivalent until

2022 ......................................................................................................... 25

Figure 14: Skim milk powder with strong correlation between World

market prices and European market prices ............................................ 27

5

Figure 15: Butter: Increasing correlation between World market prices

and European market prices ................................................................... 27

Figure 16: Strong positive correlation between milk values based on

World market prices and farm gate milk prices in the case of

Germany .................................................................................................. 30

Executive Summary

6

1 Executive Summary

Consumption of milk and dairy products within the EU is nearly stagnating and in view of

an already high level the prospects that it might increase are poor.

Small gains in consumption can only be expected:

by sectors for cheese and fresh dairy products

by areas mainly in those member countries which have joined the EU since 2004

But on the medium term the average growth will hardly exceed 0.3% per annum.

Export of EU dairy products has developed already since the Nineties from a mostly

surplus disposal business to a real market, which is running well now without export aids,

and has absorbed 18 million metric tons or 13% of all milk which was delivered to dairies

in the years 2011 and 2012, compared to 14 million tons in 2005.

Earnings from exports transferred into milk values mostly exceed those from the

domestic market, where competition is very hard on all market levels. Without exports

milk prices in the EU would be in general closer to the existing safety net, which is

guaranteed by the residual of the former intervention prices which are now reference

prices at very low levels.

Therefore the price volatility which has been observed since 2007 has been generated

positively by the influence of the world market with its export opportunities: Without

exports the prices would have been depressed. The high degree of correlation between

EU and world market prices has imported the upward trend also into the EU dairy market.

The World Market will continue to grow for a long time ahead in absolute volumes and

will offer additional opportunities also for products of EU origin.

Mainly by growing volumes of Cheese, Whey Products -whey powder, proteins and

lactose - and Skim Milk Powder the EU will take its part in the growing international

trade. Cheese and whey exports are an ideal combination, because whey is the by-

product of cheese.

The opportunities for exports of Butter and Whole Milk Powder are also good, but the EU

will not be in the position to supply sufficient quantities because not enough milk fat will

Executive Summary

7

be available in the foreseeable future to produce all the volumes which the world market

can absorb beside those from other origins.

Taking part in the world market growth and providing enough dairy products to the

domestic European market requires an ongoing Expansion of the EU Milk Production and

investments in additional processing facilities.

________________________________

Short economic statements for future development of EU Dairy Sector beyond 2015

based on the findings of the research paper of Thiele/Richarts/Burchardi, 2013:

There is a significant trend that the volume of EU milk production exported

increases by 3.5 million tons (+18.4%) over time from calculated 19.1 million tons

in 2011 to 22.6 million tons in 2022.

The share of EU milk production exported out of the EU is also significant

increasing from 13.7 % in 2011 up to 15.4 % in 2022.

Therefore, EU milk markets are strongly connected to the world milk price trends.

In the last years EU milk markets have already benefited from the world market

price trends: in the period from January 2006 until August 2013 an increase of

world milk value by 1.0 Cent per kg milk increased the EU milk value by 0.78 Cent

per kg milk on average.

There is a strong positive correlation of 0.81 to 0.90 between EU milk prices and

world market prices (from 2006 to 2013).

Consequently, efficient EU dairy policy measures are those which foster the

international competitiveness of the EU dairy markets. This will support the EU

dairy market prices and adjustments in the future.

Introduction

8

2 Introduction

“The abolition of the European Union milk quota system in 2015 will create a new context

for economic operators, who have been dealing with milk quotas for some 30 years. To

prepare the sector for this new operating environment, a series of new instruments has

been developed in the context of the “Milk Package”. Moreover, the milk sector has been

the subject of intense discussions during the CAP reform process and the agreement

reached on 26 June reinforces instruments to tackle difficulties in the milk sector;

amendments have been introduced to the single Common Market Organisation (CMO)

rules to improve the market orientation of EU agriculture in the light of increased

competition on world markets, while providing an effective safety net for farmers in the

context of external uncertainties (together with direct payments and options for risk

management under rural development).” (EU Commission, 08/2013, Invitation to the

Conference “The EU dairy sector: development beyond 2015”, Brussels, 24 September

2013).

Concerning this background the aim of the following milk market research paper is to

develop a short description and analysis how important the world market of milk and milk

products really is for the development of the milk market of the European Union. This

could support the decision making process in European dairy sector policy beyond 2015

to find suitable solutions to support a successful further development of the EU dairy

sector.

Demand of milk - EU and world: trends, outlook, determinants

9

3 Demand of milk - EU and world: trends, outlook, determinants

There is a strong increase of world population which will increase worldwide demand of

milk. Between 1990 and 2012 the annual growth declined from +1.64 % to 1.16 %

following World Bank data. The FAPRI forecasts the future world population growth to

further slow down. Following FAPRI the annual growth will be +0.85 % in 2025 (World

Bank, 2013; FAPRI, 2013). However, a growth rate of larger than 0.85 % per year will

increase the demand for dairy products, especially in emerging markets.

Figure 1: World population development and forecast until 2025

Source: World Bank, FAPRI, 2013.

In contrast to the international development the population in the EU-27 grew since 1990

slower with annual growth rates of only +0.15 % and up to +0.46 %. For the future the

FAPRI expects a slowdown till 2025 on +0.0 %. This development is partly due to the

continuously declining population in the 12 new member countries. The population of

these 12 countries decreased from 107 million people in 1990 onto 103 million people in

2012. The FAPRI forecasts a further decline onto 100 million people in 2025. Therefore

the population in the EU-15 countries grew between 1990 and 2012 from 366 million

people onto 402 million people. The FAPRI expects the population in these 15 countries

to be grown till 2025 onto 411 million people.

5

5,5

6

6,5

7

7,5

8

World population in billion people

FAPRI forecastWorld Bank data 1990-2012


10

Figure 2: Population development in the EU-27, EU-15 and in the EU-12 new members from 1990 until 2025

Source: World Bank, FAPRI, 2013.

Figure 3: Annual growth rates of world population, EU-27 population and EU-12 new members population in % from 1990 until 2025

Source: own calculation based on World Bank and FAPRI.

Based on the Outlook by OECD/FAO until 2022 the world import demand of cheese,

butter, skim milk powder and whole milk powder will increase significantly by 17.2 % for

Butter, 20.1 % for Cheese, 20.9 % for Skim milk powder, and 11.3 % for Whole milk

powder.

460

480

500

520

19

90

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

EU-27 population in million people

FAPRIforecast

World Bank data 1990-2012

+0.15% to

+0.46% p.a.

+0.16% to +0% p.a.

340

360

380

400

420

19

90

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

EU-15 population in million people

FAPRIforecast


+0.23% to

+0.62% p.a.+0.23% to

+0.09% p.a.

95

100

105

110

19

90

19

99

20

02

20

05

20

08

20

11

20

14

20

17

20

20

20

23

EU-12 new members population in million people

FAPRIforecast


-0.71% to +0.02% p.a. -0.1% to

-0.36% p.a.

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5World population annual growth rates in %

EU-27 population annual growth rates in %

EU-12 new members population annual growth rates in %

FAPRI forecastWorld Bank data 1990-2012


11

Table 1: World import demand of different dairy products – Forecast of

OECD/FAO until 2022

Jahr Butter 1,000 t

Cheese 1,000 t

SMP 1,000 t

WMP 1,000 t

2013 859.9 2390 1784 2299

2022 1008 2869 2156 2559

Diff. 148 479 372 260

Growth +17.2% +20.1% +20.9% +11.3%

Source: OECD / FAO, 2013

Milk and most genuine dairy products are regarded as basic part of the diet in most

European countries. If the level of their consumption is compared with those of other

countries of the world, most Western and Northern member countries hold top levels in

the range of 280 to 300 kg per capita. The average of the EU is around 243 kg in total of

milk equivalent, which is very similar to that of the United States and Canada. In the

Eastern member states levels move around 200 kg, which also is high when compared to

international figures from other parts of the world. Therefore, the potential to extend the

market for milk and dairy products within the EU is only small: Most innovations in the

range of dairy products tend to gain market shares at the expense of other ones. With

low birth rates consumer numbers are no more a driving force for more consumption of

food items. And one experience following high price periods at retail level is a certain

reaction of consumers by compensating reduced purchase volumes by reduced wasting of

food, after detecting that the “best before…” suggestion on the shelf life is almost not the

final deadline of the product.

The major potential for growing consumption exists mainly in the Eastern member states,

in particular with regard to cheese, fresh dairy products and to some extent also to

butter. But if the whole dairy range is expressed in milk equivalent on the EU level, the

potential of annual growth has been almost below 0.5% per annum. And if the recent

projection results of the EU Commission regarding the different dairy products are

transformed into milk equivalents (based on the estimated solids contents), the average

annual consumption growth for the decade until 2022 is around 0.3%. In the food

industry dairy products tend to be substituted by other items, i. e. butter and milk fat by


12

vegetable fats, milk proteins by whey proteins or vegetable proteins, cheese partly by

other food preparations with reduced dairy content etc. In the past years, however, the

total use of dairy in food industry application does not seem to have declined, since new

applications had been developed and have compensated for the losses in some sectors.

Moreover, the use of dairy ingredients in some sectors of the food industries has

expanded because of increasing export opportunities, i. e. in the sector of confectionery

goods, dietary and infant food. On the other hand, the use of skim milk powder in milk

replacers for calves has been reduced to a minimum content, and whole milk powder has

been replaced by mixtures of SMP or whey derivatives with vegetable fats.

The Outlook: Stagnation in most domestic food markets of the EU

Therefore the major determinants of dairy consumption within the EU are:

Stagnating and even in some member states declining number of ageing

consumers

A per capita consumption which is hard to increase from the levels which are

already achieved

As result, the outlook for expanding sales within the EU is poor. Expanding within the

European market has already led and will also lead in the future to stronger competition

on all market levels.

Based on this situation, all projections about agricultural and dairy markets reveal quasi

stagnation for coming years, also the last one of the European Commission with

projections until 2022.

A reduction of demand growth per annum in the size of 0.5% is expected until

2017 and after that unchanged sales are predicted until 2022. Slight losses in the

northwestern member states are compensated by small gains in the new member

countries in the east.

Small gains are expected in the butter market in both areas of the EU, following

the experience that butter consumption has recovered especially where it had

reached low levels.

A modest growth can be expected for cheese consumption, in both western and

eastern areas of the EU. Eastern consumers are still lagging behind the western

cheese consumption level but will catch up to some extent.

Complete stagnation is expected for the milk powder sector, both for skimmed

milk powder and whole milk powder.


13

Consequently, an expanding food industry has to look and prepare for increasing export

opportunities, and that is what already happened since a long time ago. It was clear for

many leaders of the dairy industry that export strategies had to be built on their

competitiveness in international market when market orientation and trade liberalization

combined with the dismantling of export aids was announced. And the international

demand started the same time with an accelerated evolution, when growing consumer

numbers with growing purchasing power, which was generated by economic

development, came into the focus. Based on the milk equivalent calculation depending on

the milk solids content the volume of all dairy exports of the EU reached a calculated

volume of 18.24 m. metric tons of milk in 2012, with different evolutions by product:

Still of minor importance but recently with attractive growth and reportedly better

revenues from export outlets than from domestic markets is the sector of liquid

milk, mainly UHT, and fresh dairy products. More than 1.5% of the overall

production will be achieved in 2013.

Butter exports have declined but represented in recent years between 6 and 8% of

the domestic production, although usually European butter prices are mostly

above the level of international market prices. The EU-share in the international

butter trade fluctuated between 18 and 15% in recent years.

Cheese export is a true story of success: It has doubled since 1999 to an expected

volume of over 0,8 m. metric tons in 2013. Its share in the domestic production

was 8% and its share in the international cheese trade was 31% in 2012.

EU exports of milk powders have declined in recent years. 43% of domestic skim

milk powder production was exported in 2011 and 2012, and over half of the

production of whole milk powder. In the world trade the EU shares were 31% for

SMP and 18% for WMP.

More than tripled have the exports of whey and whey derivatives. With Europe as

leading cheese producing and whey generating area the European whey

processors have developed specific applications for whey powder, lactose and

other derivatives for very different applications, which are highly welcomed both

in the European and the international market as well, in particular as nutrients of

high value in infant food, dietary foods, pharmaceuticals and feed.

It is crucial for the European dairy industry to keep and develop these markets in the

future. This view is confirmed by the projections of the European Commission in their

medium term outlook papers which are published annually. In the paper published in

2011 the view was expressed that the EU dairy sector is among all sectors of the farming

and food industries the one with the best prospects for the future, and this mainly but


14

not only by the developments in the cheese market and exports. In the prospects

published in December 2012 the projected development of cheese exports can be

regarded as a very conservative estimate, since the expected volumes for 2012 and 2013

are outpaced by the real evolution of exports.

These careful projections do not comply with those of OECD and FAO, which foresee only

a stagnation of EU cheese exports and constant declines of the net trade in butter and

milk powders. Butter and skim milk powder exports are also expected to go up, but not

the whole milk powder exports. This seems to be plausible in view of the developments in

the recent years and in particular with respect to the supplies of milk fat in general, which

are short of the market opportunities within the EU, the increasing requirement of milk

fat for cheese manufacturing plus only modest butter exports. It raises the question

whether it should be useful in dairy cattle breeding to focus again on improving the fat

content of the milk which is produced.

The Outlook: Growing world milk consumption

In the last twenty years the worldwide consumption of dairy products has taken a

spectacular upward movement which is still going on without having lost its dynamics.

Even a simple extrapolation of this trend is promising further expansion. But to monitor

the major determinants helps better to assess prospective developments.

Number of potential consumers

The purchasing power and its impact on the spendings for food

Already existing consumption habits and new trends

It is a simplification but it helps to understand the current evolution to consider the world

divided into developed and emerging markets. Developed markets are those with an

existing high level of dairy consumption in all items, which means that the growth

potential is mainly depending on the number of consumers and less on purchasing power

and changing consumption habit. By fast economic growth of the emerging markets every

year more employees come closer to urban agglomerations where “Western” food

including genuine dairy products or processed products containing dairy are in the reach,

and the money to purchase them also.


15

With the strong growth in emerging and the modest growth in established markets, the

milk consumption in major areas of the world as shown in the graph below will grow from

a calculated level of 609 million tons to 741 million tons in 2022, which is an average

growth of 12 million tons per annum. Over longer time spans the growth rates in

percentage terms normally tend to slow down, even if the absolute changes are stronger

at the end of the periods under consideration, and that is here the case.

Figure 4: Demand for all dairy products in milk equivalent terms until 2022 in m.t.

Source: FAO, IDF, ZMB, EU Commission, 2012; ife Kiel; own calculations.

The acceptance of dairy products depends also on the consumer’s knowledge how to deal

with the different product and taste preferences. Therefore it certainly makes a

difference if people are already familiar with dairy products or not. Typical examples

might be India as growing market with a large and growing number of consumers which

are familiar to consume dairy products and China with the majority probably not being

familiar yet. Common to both markets is a growing economy developing more purchasing

power which often is used to spend more money for better and tastier food, new items

and services around nutrition as event. On top of this several governments in East and

South East Asia recently further promote just milk products for providing a healthier

nutrition. The value of all components is highly appreciated by the officials (and they do

not care about lactose intolerance as many Western media do).

Growing markets with a special high acceptance for milk and milk products have emerged

not only in East and South Asia, but around the globe in North Africa and Middle East, in


16

Latin America, Eastern Europe and CIS countries and are obviously in an earlier stadium in

Africa south of the Sahara. Nevertheless still a small share of all milk produced is being

traded globally in the form of products with a high value in relation to transportation

costs, these are mainly powders, cheese, butter and ingredients. Regardless how the

different products are calculated back into milk equivalent, the trade share is still below

10% of the worldwide milk production, but according to the IDF the trade has been

increased since 2000 double as fast as the production.

Liquid milk and fresh dairy products

The markets for liquid milk and fresh dairy products are one major outlet in the dairy

business. The expected growth for the period under consideration shown in the

respective graph is 10%, most of this growth will happen in emerging markets. The high

share of emerging markets is resulting from the figures for India and Pakistan which are

included.

Anyway, the overall figures of this sector shown in the graph below are not complete, but

the particular growth in emerging markets is obvious.

Figure 5: Demand for liquid milk and fresh products treated by dairy companies until 2022 in m.t.


But in general this sector is the one where international trade plays the least role. It is no

more the question of perishability which is the major obstacle, since UHT and ESL


17

technologies are good options to tackle that problem. It is mainly the high cost for

transportation in relation to the products values. A high share of the imports, where they

are necessary, already goes on since long times and will continue and grow by importing

dry milks for recombination to liquid products. Nevertheless some trade flows have

appeared, i.e. from Australia to South East Asia and recently also from Europe to China.

Milk Powders

The major products to be supplied to emerging markets are skim milk and whole milk

powders. They are often used in dairy facilities for the recombination of milk products by

adding water and additional treatment, but also in many other applications of the food

industries; they are in general destined for markets where not enough freshly produced

milk is available. Worldwide many companies invest in dairy processing facilities relying

more and more on imported raw materials, mainly in the form of milk powders, which is

the reason that the most important dairy items traded are whole and skim milk powders.

To them might catch up very soon also the market of whey derivatives.

For the dairy industry in the countries of origin milk powders are the utilization which is

anyway required to process milk in temporary market situations when no other options

to treat the milk are available. This happens in peaks like the spring milk flush and during

holiday times. The necessary high investments in drying capacities also requires a certain

constant flow of milk to them. And it is also necessary when companies aim at being

reliable partners in the trade.

Skim milk powder is regarded to be the ideal product for markets with lower purchasing

and economic power. It is used in the food industries and for recombination with other

fat products or butteroil. The consumption in developed markets is stagnating, in

particular in the applications for the calf feed industry. European suppliers are preparing

for taking part in the growth of the international market, since in many regions in the

northwestern parts of the EU the growing milk deliveries require also growing drying

capacities.

Considering trends of the past are misleading. Since the year 2000, exports have declined

significantly. In the future, this decline of the exports is likely to turn in an upward trend


18

anyway. The projections of the EU Commission expect an increase to 625 kt in 2017 and

678 kt in 2022, which seems to be a conservative forecast.

Figure 6: Demand for skim milk powder until 2022 in m.t.


Whole Milk Powder is the product which is more required by the markets with a strong

economic and purchasing power, like oil exporting countries. A special case is China

where whole milk powder is the ideal product for seasonal balancing of the market and

balancing between regions of high surplus of fresh milk and only a small number of

consumers which are far away from regions with megacities in the southeast and virtually

no supply of local fresh milk. Therefore China has developed to the biggest producer of

whole milk powder with more than one million tons produced which are all consumed

domestically, to which since 2008 fast growing imports are added, making the country

within few years the No. 1 in imports. But China is not the only driving force for

worldwide growing consumption of whole milk powder. The EU is expected to take in that

field a minor role simply because not enough whole milk powder can be produced as not

enough milkfat is available.

Corresponding to this the projections of the EU Commission see a more or less stable

export volume between 370 and 390 kt. The question should be considered to improve

the fat content of European dairy cows in the programs of the cattle breeding


19

federations, which might be helpful also in easing the relative shortage of milkfat for all

purposes, be it the butter, cream and cheese markets.

Figure 7: Demand for whole milk powder until 2022 in m.t.


Butter and other Milkfat

Butter, anhydrous milkfat and ghee have developed to a worldwide growing market, too.

In the global market of butter, anhydrous milk fat and ghee it is the high volume of South

Asia (India, Pakistan,…) which is remarkable and gives the total of emerging markets the

special weight in the graph.

The possibilities of EU suppliers to participate in the expected overall market growth

which is accompanied by a similar growth in the international butter trade, however, are

limited for two reasons:

One is the relative shortage in the European market for milkfat.

The other one is mostly higher prices in the European market than in the

international market.

In their projection, the EU Commission sees exports rising from 124 kt to 185 kt in 2022. It

is sometimes a question of special qualities, which are not obtainable elsewhere. To

North African and Middle East markets EU butter is exported despite lower prices from

other origins for a selection of butter with white color.


20

Figure 8: Demand for butter, AMF, Ghee until 2022 in m.t.


Cheese

The worldwide cheese consumption and trade is mainly concentrated in already

developed markets like Europe, North America, also in countries with a lower level of

consumption but with consumers being familiar with cheese, which is the case in Russia,

Latin America, North African and Middle East countries. The introduction of cheese in

new markets happened as a first step often with processed cheese for caterers and

special cheeses intended for fast food purposes. Nevertheless the prospects for rising

consumption in emerging markets, where cheese consumption is still at the very

beginning, are more modest than in other areas of the world, where already a certain

consumption is existing, i.e. in Russia and some Latin American countries, because small

gains in percentage terms from a higher level, multiplied with consumer numbers can be

more in absolute volumes than strong percentage rates starting from a very low level like

in China. Nevertheless, initial starts are easier when companies are already present with

other dairy products.

In the international cheese trade so far, the EU is the major supplier and certainly will

keep this position. Russia is the strongest importing country and the prospects in general

for an ongoing increase of consumption and trade are favorable. Starting with the year

2011, the EU projection sees exports to all destinations go up to 910 kt in 2017 and 956 kt


21

in 2022. There is a good chance that these expectations will be outpaced by the reality as

exports have stepped up faster in the last two years.

Figure 9: Demand for industrially produced cheese until 2022 in m.t.


Whey, the by-product of cheese, has been turned by intensive and long lasting R.&D.

investments from a costly burden for the cheese manufacturers to a highly appreciated

source of valuable nutrients for food, feed and pharmaceutical purposes. Whey

derivatives are also asked from export markets with the strongest dynamics in the last

years. Thus whey has become a source of additional market returns for milk, both from

domestic and foreign markets. The more cheese is produced, the more whey will be

available to meet the demand for very different applications. One of them is at present in

the public interest: that is the official and the unofficial export market of infant formulas.

Milk production – EU and World markets: trends, outlook, determinants

22

4 Milk production – EU and World markets: trends, outlook, determinants

Figure 10: World milk production development until 2022 (OECD-FAO forecast)

Source: OECD / FAO, 2013.

Taking into account the export opportunities which grow faster than the slow domestic

market, also larger volumes of milk are needed to meet both.

The expansion of production has already started with the stepwise increase of milk

quotas resulting from the “soft landing” policy. Over the whole of the EU, these real milk

supplies have lagged significantly behind the available quotas with the result that in some

member states the system is only available as political tool without function.

Nevertheless, in particular in northwestern parts of the EU many farmers are preparing to

expand their milk supplies and so does the dairy industry. This will not only end up in a

regional concentration which requires investments in milk processing capacities at the

expenses of others going out of production, but also in a constant growth of milk

production over the next decade. A strong incentive is also given by the positive price

prospects, which is already the experience of the time since 2005. Irrespective of the

stronger volatility the observed prices promise stability in real terms. The projections of

the EU Commission forecasts increasing milk volumes of milk production and deliveries to

dairies from 138.6 million tons in 2011 for the EU-27 up to 144.5 in 2017 and 146.9 in

2022.

750

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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

World milk production in million t

OECD/FAO forecastannual growth: +1.6-2.0%


23

The EU commission expects the EU-27 milk production to increase from 153 million tons

milk in 2012 onto 159 million t milk in 2022.

Figure 11: Development of the EU milk production in the EU-27, EU-25, EU-15 and EU-12 from 1990 until 2022

Source: ZMP, ZMB, EU Commission, 2013.

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Calculation of the EU dairy market surplus - Methodology and assessment Source are own calculations based on figures with three digits behind the comma based on

documents of ZMB and EU Commission projections. They include official figures or

estimates for Croatia. The transformation into milk equivalent is based on solids content of

the individual products. This method is described in the IDF bulletin 390/2004. Solids

contents can be determined relatively exactly for butter and milk powders, but they had to

be estimated for the mix of products in the sectors liquid milk, fresh products and cheese.

The whey solids include estimates of the consumption of whey powders and lactose. Here

estimates are also necessary for the initial years 2011 and 2012 because their production is

reported statistically only for few member states, they are those with the major production.

In absolute volumes the forecast on butter, cheese and milk powder consumption are not in

any case identic with the Commission documents because of some differences in the details

of the underlying balance sheets, but very close to them. The calculated surplus is not

identic with the calculated exports. But it should be of the same size and differences are

also due to stock variations which occured in 2011 and 2012.


24

Table 2: Calculated surplus of EU dairy products will increase by 11 % until 2022

2011 2012 2013 2017 2022

Demand for Dairy Products million t million t million t million t million t

Ordinary Liquid Milks, treated in

dairies 33.1 32.8 32.9 33.0 33.0

Fresh Dairy Products, Cream,

Desserts, Drinks etc. 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.0 12.4

Butter 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.1

Cheese 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.3

Whole Milk Powder 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3

Skim Milk Powder 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.8

Condensed milk 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9

Whey solids 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7

Total in milk equivalent 121.8 122.2 121.9 124.1 125.4

Milk supplies 140.9 142.4 142.2 145.6 148.0

Calculated surplus 19.1 20.2 20.3 21.5 22.6

Explanation: Total milk supplies are calculated from cow milk delivery figures and statistically

reported stock variations. Anyway stock variation figures do not fully cover different evolutions

in stocks which are not statistically reported but also subject to significant movements in and

out, in particular for items which can be stored over long time periodes like milk powders, whey

derivatives and hard and semi-hard cheeses.

EU exports and milk prices/values: trends, outlook, determinants

25

5 EU exports and milk prices/values: trends, outlook, determinants

There is a significant rising trend of EU dairy exports over the period under consideration,

despite 1. the step by step and finally to zero reduced export refunds, 2. the conversion of

external trade into EU-intra trade by the different enlargement steps, and 3. rising prices.

Figure 12: Development of the EU milk exports 1999 until 2013, m.t. milk equivalent

Source: ife Kiel, own calculation based on Eurostat, EU Commission.

Figure 13: Forecast of EU dairy exports in m.t. milk equivalent until 2022

Source: ife Kiel, own calculation based on Eurostat, EU Commission.

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26

Also the upward trend of EU dairy market exports will continue in the future. Until 2022 a

gain of 25.5 % growth of exports is expected based on the future consumption and

production data estimates.

The dairy trade expectation, e.g. export and import numbers of different dairy products,

until 2022 are calculated for each product group and expressed in milk equivalent data in

the next table.

Table 3: Dairy Trade of the European Union from 2011 to 2013 and forecast for

2017 and 2022, converted into Milk Equivalents (1,000 t)

Remarks: figures marked with red colour are forecast numbers of the EU Commission. Source: ife Kiel, own calculation based on Eurostat; EU Commission.

Importance of world market prices for the European price level

Already from the next figures for skim milk powder and butter the interdependence

between world market prices and EU market prices is obvious. Since 2006/2007 a

stronger interdependence is observed due to the reduction of intervention prices in the

European Union and the increasing world market demand for dairy products. Both

determinants expand the price range for European milk market prices.

1,000 t Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import Export Import

Liquid milk 211 3 318 2 360 2 450 2 600 2

Fresh products etc. 227 9 261 9 270 10 310 10 360 10

Butter 131 47 122 52 130 40 173 38 185 39

Cheese 683 74 776 77 820 75 910 75 956 76

SMP 518 0 523 2 450 1 625 1 678 1

WMP 390 2 387 3 350 1 380 2 372 2

Cond. Milk 246 1 292 1 290 1 300 1 300 1

Casein 79 24 81 20 70 20 70 20 70 20

Whey solids 750 4 790 7 850 8 800 10 900 10

Dairy Trade converted

into Milk Equivalents 17,582 833 18,454 884 18,300 792 20,512 832 22,061 843

2011 2012 2013 2017 2022


27

Figure 14: Skim milk powder with strong correlation between World market prices and European market prices

Source: ZMP, ZMB, USDA, 2013.

Figure 15: Butter: Increasing correlation between World market prices and European market prices

Source: ZMP, ZMB, USDA, 2013.

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EU Intervention/ Reference price

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28

Table 4 documents the statistical analysis of interdependence between World market

prices and European market prices/values over the period of January 2000 until August

2013 (164 month observations). Due to the structural change we also observed the

period from January 2006 until August 2013 (92 month observations).

The results are very robust and statistically significant (t-values are high). The variances of

World market prices can explain the variances of EU market prices by 37 % in the case of

butter (adjusted R²) and 74 % in the case of skim milk powder. The EU skim milk powder

market is much more integrated than butter market. For farm gate milk prices in Europe

the raw milk values based on both products are important. The statistical calculation

shows that the variances of the World market milk value explain the variances of the EU

market milk value by 60 %. This is already a strong integration of EU milk markets to

World markets.

If the World milk value (or the World milk price) goes up by 10 Cent per kg the EU milk

value or farm gate milk price goes up by 5.4 Cent per kg. In the case of skim milk powder

the connection is much stronger. If the skim milk powder prices on the World market

increases by 100 EUR / ton this will increase European skim milk powder prices by 62 EUR

/ ton. As butter is less competitive, the regression coefficient is only 0.42.

Due to the structural change after 2006, with higher World market prices and lower

intervention prices in Europe we also applied statistical analysis for the shorter period

from January 2006 until August 2013. The overall result support the hypothesis that since

2006 we have a stronger impact from the World market on EU milk markets. Therefore,

the variances of the World market prices and values explain the EU internal variances of

milk prices and values by 66 % (butter), 77 % (milk value), to 81 % (skim milk powder).


29

Table 4: Interdependence between World market prices and EU market prices in

the case of butter, skim milk powder and the raw milk in two periods

Source: ife Kiel, own calculation.

Furthermore, since 2006 the direct price adjustment determined by World market price

adjustment are much higher: If the World market price of butter or skim powder

increases by 100 EUR per ton the EU market prices of both products will increase by 76

EUR per ton. This also influences EU dairy farmers: The European raw milk value will

increase by 0.78 Cent. These results can also be confirmed for the milk value based on

World market prices and farm gate milk prices in the case of Germany (see figure).


30

Figure 16: Strong positive correlation between milk values based on World market prices and farm gate milk prices in the case of Germany

Source: ife Kiel, own calculation, BMELV Bonn, USDA.

The further question is how often the European dairy sector profits from the mentioned

stronger connection between World market and EU milk market? In the observed 164

month period from January 2000 until August 2013 world market prices of butter went up

87 month and down 77 in month, skim milk powder went up in 90 month and down in 74

month. It is obvious that the world market development also can have negative impacts

on European markets like in the periods 2008 to 2009.

Hence, we applied statistical trend analysis to answer the question if EU milk market has

more advantages than disadvantages concerning the last 13 years. Even if we include the

financial crisis situation 2008/2009 into the trend analysis we found a strong positive

trend in World market prices of butter, skim milk powder and the milk value. For butter

the positive trend can explain 66 % of the price variances, for SMP it is 24 % and for the

milk value it is 40 %. Ceteris paribus and on average, since January 2000 there is a positive

world milk market price step per month of +17.8 EUR/t for butter, +7.2 EUR/t for skim

milk powder, and +0.12 Cent / kg milk. On average the milk value at the World market

level increases 1.4 Cent per year. Accordingly, the European dairy farmers benefit from

the strong connection to the world milk market. Especially since 2009 the positive price

developments in the European dairy markets is essentially the result of the strong world

market impact.

© ife 2013

Economic Statements for future development of EU Dairy Sector beyond 2015

31

6 Economic Statements for future development of EU Dairy Sector beyond 2015

There is a significant trend that the volume of EU milk production exported

increases by 3.5 million tons (+18.4%) over time from calculated 19.1 million tons

in 2011 to 22.6 million tons in 2022.

The share of EU milk production exported out of the EU is also significant

increasing from 13.7 % in 2011 up to 15.4 % in 2022.

Therefore, EU milk markets are strongly connected to the world milk price trends.

In the last years EU milk markets have already benefited from the world market

price trends: in the period from January 2006 until August 2013 an increase of

world milk value by 1.0 Cent per kg milk increased the EU milk value by 0.78 Cent

per kg milk on average.

There is a strong positive correlation of 0.81 to 0.90 between EU milk prices and

world market prices (from 2006 to 2013).

Consequently, efficient EU dairy policy measures are those which foster the

international competitiveness of the EU dairy markets. This will support the EU

dairy market prices and adjustments in the future.

Annex

32

7 Annex

Table 5: Demand for Dairy Products: Whole Milk Powder 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


Table 6: Demand for Dairy Products: Liquid Milks and Fresh Dairy Products 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


Demand for Dairy Products: Whole Milk Powder

2011 2017 2022 2017 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2011 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU - 28 340 334 340 98.2 100.0 0.3% 0.4%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 23 23 23 100.0 100.0 0.0% 0.0%

CEEC outside EU 4 4 4 100.0 100.0 0.0% 0.0%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 144 160 176 111.1 122.2 1.6% 1.9%

Other CIS 19 20 21 105.3 110.5 0.8% 1.0%

Iran, Turkey 6 10 13 166.7 216.7 4.5% 5.4%

Japan, Korea,

Taiwan 189 190 190 100.5 100.5 0.0% 0.0%

China 1,470 1,715 1,900 116.7 129.3 1.7% 2.1%

S.E.Asia 451 544 628 120.6 139.2 2.4% 2.9%

South Asia 216 240 270 111.1 125.0 2.0%

USA, Canada 8 9 10 112.5 125.0 1.8% 2.1%

Latin America 972 1,143 1,271 117.6 130.8 1.8% 2.1%

Middle East + North

Africa 182 230 280 126.4 153.8 3.3% 4.0%

Sub-Sahara Africa 24 26 27 108.3 112.5 0.6% 0.8%

Oceania 32 38 42 118.8 131.3 1.7% 2.0%

Other 120 124 125 103.3 104.2 0.1% 0.2%

Total 4,200 4,686 5,195 111.6 123.7 1.7% 2.1%

Demand for Dairy Products: Liquid Milks and Fresh Dairy Products

2011 2017 2022 2022 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2017 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU-28 44,738 45,000 45,400 100.6 101.5 0.1% 0.2%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 1,425 1,443 1,460 101.3 102.5 0.2% 0.3%

CEEC outside EU 27 940 1,000 1,050 106.4 111.7 1.0% 1.2%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 10,264 10,500 11,000 102.3 107.2 0.4% 0.5%

Other CIS 760 800 850 105.3 111.8 0.9% 1.0%

Turkey, Iran 3,700 4,000 4,350 108.1 117.6 1.3% 1.6%

Japan, Korea 7,772 7,800 7,850 100.4 101.0 0.1% 0.1%

China 12,600 15,500 19,000 123.0 150.8 3.5% 4.2%

S.E. Asia 4,300 4,400 4,500 102.3 104.7 0.4% 0.5%

South Asia 1,000 1,100 1,200 110.0 120.0 1.6% 1.9%

USA, Canada 30,300 30,500 30,650 100.7 101.2 0.1% 0.1%

Latin America,

Caribbean 30,700 31,300 31,800 102.0 103.6 0.3% 0.4%

Middle East + North

Africa 25,500 28,500 31,000 111.8 121.6 1.9% 2.2%

Sub- Saharan Africa 2,600 3,100 3,600 119.2 138.5 3.0% 3.6%

Oceania 2,820 2,920 3,000 103.5 106.4 0.6% 0.7%

Other 1,000 1,060 1,110 106.0 111.0 1.0% 1.2%

Total 180,419 188,923 197,820 104.7 109.6 0.8% 0.9%

Annex

33

Table 7: Demand for Dairy Products: Butter, AMF, Ghee 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


Table 8: Demand for Dairy Products: Skim Milk Powder 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


Demand for Dairy Products: Consumption of Butter, AMF, Ghee

2011 2017 2022 2017 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2011 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU - 28 1,966 2,050 2,070 104.3 105.3 0.2% 0.2%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 57 59 60 103.5 105.3 0.3% 0.3%

CEEC outside EU 10 11 12 110.0 120.0 1.5% 1.8%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 480 500 510 104.2 106.3 0.3% 0.4%

Other CIS 20 22 23 110.0 115.0 0.7% 0.9%

Iran, Turkey 271 280 290 103.3 107.0 0.6% 0.7%

Japan, Korea,

Taiwan 190 200 210 105.3 110.5 0.8% 1.0%

China 90 110 140 122.2 155.6 4.1% 4.9%

S.E.Asia 72 88 95 122.2 131.9 1.3% 1.5%

South Asia 4,974 5,870 8,100 118.0 162.8

USA, Canada 850 850 907 100.0 106.7 1.1% 1.3%

Latin America 350 402 440 114.9 125.7 1.5% 1.8%

Middle East + North

Africa 107 137 154 128.6 144.6 2.0% 2.4%


Oceania 110 122 124 110.9 112.7 0.3% 0.3%

Other 310 320 330 103.2 106.5 0.5% 0.6%

Total 9,877 11,046 13,495 111.8 136.6 3.4% 4.1%

Demand for Dairy Products: Consumption of Skim Milk Powder

2011 2017 2022 2017 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2011 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU - 28 810 800 800 98.8 98.8 0.0% 0.0%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 26 26 27 101.5 103.8 0.4% 0.5%

CEEC outside EU 7 8 9 114.3 128.6 2.0% 2.4%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 192 210 222 109.4 115.6 0.9% 1.1%

Other CIS 31 32 33 103.2 106.5 0.5% 0.6%

Iran, Turkey 12 14 16 116.7 133.3 2.3% 2.7%

Japan, Korea,

Taiwan 225 243 240 108.0 106.7 -0.2% -0.2%

China 162 201 240 124.1 148.1 3.0% 3.6%

S.E.Asia 451 544 628 120.6 139.2 2.4% 2.9%

South Asia 410 505 630 123.2 153.7 3.8%

USA, Canada 609 696 729 114.3 119.7 0.8% 0.9%

Latin America 375 465 540 124.0 144.0 2.5% 3.0%

Middle East + North

Africa 245 275 325 112.2 132.7 2.8% 3.4%


Oceania 53 56 58 105.7 109.4 0.6% 0.7%

Other 572 645 700 112.8 122.4 1.4% 1.7%

Total 4,220 4,765 5,247 112.9 124.3 1.6% 1.9%

Annex

34

Table 9: Demand for Dairy Products: Cheese 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


Table 10: Demand for Dairy Products: All in terms of milk equivalent 2011 and Forecast for 2017 and 2022


2011 2017 2022 2017 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2011 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU-28 8,970 9,140 9,340 101.9 104.1 0.3% 0.4%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 267 273 278 102.2 104.1 0.4% 0.4%

CEEC outside EU 50 56 60 112.0 120.0 1.9% 1.4%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 1,070 1,165 1,250 108.9 116.8 1.4% 1.4%

Other CIS 50 57 63 114.0 126.0 2.2% 2.0%

Turkey, Iran 810 840 870 103.7 107.4 0.6% 0.7%

Japan, Korea 363 388 410 106.9 112.9 1.1% 1.1%

China 316 359 395 113.6 125.0 2.1% 1.9%

S.E. Asia 41 50 56 122.0 136.6 3.4% 2.3%

USA; Canada 5,402 5,644 6,149 104.5 113.8 0.7% 1.7%

Latin America 1,850 2,190 2,500 118.4 135.1 2.9% 2.7%

Middle East + North 580 820 930 141.4 160.3 5.9% 2.5%

Sub-Saharan Africa 60 70 80 116.7 133.3 2.6% 2.7%

Oceania 254 284 309 111.8 121.7 1.9% 1.7%

Other 117 120 130 102.6 111.1 0.4% 1.6%

Total 20,200 21,456 22,820 106.2 113.0 1.0% 1.2%

Demand for Dairy Products: Cheese

2011 2017 2022 2017 2022

Average annual

change

Average annual

change

1,000 t 1,000 t 1,000 t 2011 = 100 2011=100 2017/2011 2022/2017

EU-27 121,810 124,120 124,120 101.9 101.9 0.3% 0.0%

Iceland, Norway,

Switzerland 4,319 4,402 4,472 101.9 103.5 0.3% 0.3%

CEEC outside EU 1,438 1,558 1,652 108.4 114.9 1.3% 1.2%

Russia, Ukraine,

Belarus 24,183 25,593 27,050 105.8 111.9 0.9% 1.1%

Other CIS 1,630 1,755 1,873 107.6 114.9 1.2% 1.3%

Turkey, Iran 12,186 12,820 13,500 105.2 110.8 0.8% 1.0%

Japan, Korea 14,579 15,027 15,302 103.1 105.0 0.5% 0.4%

China 26,972 32,245 37,632 119.5 139.5 3.0% 3.1%

S.E. Asia 11,538 13,205 14,654 114.5 127.0 2.3% 2.1%

South Asia1) 203,405 246,381 283,000 121.1 139.1 3.2% 2.8%

USA, Canada 84,006 86,915 91,974 103.5 109.5 0.6% 1.1%

Latin America,

Caribbean 56,287 62,016 66,875 110.2 118.8 1.6% 1.5%

Middle East + North

Africa 32,291 37,873 41,968 117.3 130.0 2.7% 2.1%

Sub- Saharan Africa 3,514 4,144 4,767 117.9 135.7 2.8% 2.8%

Oceania 6,108 6,600 6,944 108.1 113.7 1.3% 1.0%

Other 5,220 5,418 5,637 103.8 108.0 0.6% 0.8%

Total 609,485 680,072 741,419 111.6 121.6 1.8% 1.7%

Demand for Dairy Products: All in Terms of Milk*

Annex

35

Table 11: Calculated Surplus for Dairy Products in the European Union 2011, 2012, and Forecast for 2017 and 2022

Source: EU Commission, 2012: ife Kiel; own calculations.

* To understand the differences see explanations on page 23 and 24.

Demand for Dairy Products

2011 2012 2013 2017 2022

million t million t million t million t million t

Ordinary Liquid Milks, treated in dairies

EU-28 33.11 32.82 32.9 33.00 33.00

- EU-15 28.13 27.69 27.70 27.60 27.40

- EU, 13 new M. C. 4.98 5.13 5.20 5.40 5.60

Fresh Dairy Products, Cream, Desserts, Drinks etc.

EU-28 11.63 11.60 11.60 12.00 12.40

- EU-15 9.74 9.66 9.63 9.95 10.30

- EU, 13 1.89 1.94 1.97 2.05 2.10

Butter

EU-28 1.97 2.02 2.01 2.05 2.07

- EU-15 1.74 1.78 1.77 1.81 1.83

- EU, 13 0.23 0.24 0.24 0.24 0.25

Cheese

EU-28 8.97 9.04 9.04 9.14 9.34

Hard-, Semi-hard soft 5.42 5.44 5.44 5.50 5.66

Quark, cottage, cream 2.95 3.00 3.00 3.04 3.10

Proc. Cheese 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60 0.60

- EU-15 8.03 8.08 8.07 8.09 8.24

- EU, 13 0.94 0.96 0.97 1.05 1.10

Whole Milk Powder

EU-28 0.34 0.32 0.30 0.33 0.34

Skim Milk Powder

EU-28 0.81 0.81 0.74 0.80 0.80

Condensed milk

EU-28 0.88 0.95 0.90 0.90 0.90

Whey solids

EU-28 3.52 3.55 3.61 3.66 3.66

Total in milk equivalent

EU-27 121.81 122.16 121.93 124.12 125.39

Milk supplies 140.93 142.38 142.19 145.63 148.03

- from deliveries 139.70 140.80 140.70 144.80 147.20

- from imports, m. e. 0.83 0.88 0.79 0.83 0.83

- from stock variation, m. e. -0.40 -0.70 -0.70 0.00 0.00

Calculated surplus * 19.12 20.23 20.26 21.52 22.64

- calculated from export statistics * 17.58 18.45 18.30 20.51 22.06

research paper - european economic and social committee · i university of applied sciences kiel,...

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