SCHOOL OF AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SCIENCES

GRADUATE RESEARCH PROJECT REPORT

AGRC 7617

Applying systems thinking to understand deforestation in the Central Highlands in Vietnam

HOANG YEN PHAM

School of Geography, Planning and Environmental Management

Faculty of Science

The University of Queensland

WORD COUNT: 9,141

May 2013

2

Statement of authorship The research carried out in the course of this investigation and the results presented in

this report are, except where acknowledged, the original work of the author, and all

research was conducted during the program.

3

Acknowledgement

I would like to extend my gratitude to my supervisor Dr. Carl Smith, School of

Agriculture and Food Sciences, The University of Queensland for his enthusiastic

guidance, instruction and encouragement at every stage of my research project.

I would like to thank the Australian Agency for International Development for providing

me the scholarship to pursue the Master of Environmental Management.

Many thanks also go to Dr. Thanh Van Mai for sharing his knowledge, Christopher

Howard for his help with language editing and Carole Jilek for her support during my

studies.

4

Abstract Deforestation is a complex problem with multiple and interrelated drivers that come from

different sectors. These drivers interact to produce dynamic behavior that cannot be explained

with a simple linear models or even statistical correlations.

The aims of this research were to identify drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of

Vietnam, explain the interactions among these, and discuss the potential effects of current

forest-related policies, including their unintended consequences, and interventions that may

improve deforestation management.

Using systems thinking, this research developed a conceptual model of deforestation in the

Central Highlands that captures the dynamic interrelationships and feedbacks among various

system components. The results highlight the failures of current policies to address the

deforestation problem. These include migration and agricultural expansion policies,

hydropower policies and afforestation policies that have been exacerbated deforestation.

Deforestation is being driven by reinforcing processes, so in order to properly tackle the

problem, a suite of policies aimed at weakening these processes is required. They include

advanced farming techniques that reduce land demand and provide alternatives to slash and

burn agriculture, developing alternative energy sources rather than hydropower, strengthening

programs on forest protection in combination with afforestation and reforestation, enhancing

forest fire prevention, implementing alternative livelihood programs to alleviate poverty, and

introducing measures to restrict unsustainable timber extraction. It is argued that these

interventions should be implemented simultaneously because none of them are silver bullets

that will adequately address the dynamics of deforestation on their own.

5

Table of Contents

Abstract ................................................................................................................................................ 3

List of figures ...................................................................................................................................... 6

List of tables ....................................................................................................................................... 6

I. Introduction .................................................................................................................................... 7 1.1. Background .......................................................................................................................................... 7 1.2. Research problem .............................................................................................................................. 8

II. Research significance and aims.............................................................................................. 9

III. Literature review .................................................................................................................... 10 3.1. Deforestation models ...................................................................................................................... 10 3.2. Drivers of deforestation in Vietnam .......................................................................................... 14 3.3. Forest policies in Vietnam ............................................................................................................. 16

IV. Research methodologies ...................................................................................................... 16

V. Systems model of deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam .................. 19 5.1. Introduction ....................................................................................................................................... 19 5.2. Behaviour over time ........................................................................................................................ 21 5.3. Causal loop diagrams ...................................................................................................................... 22

5.3.1. Final conceptual model of deforestation ........................................................................................ 25 5.3.2. Analysis of key loops ............................................................................................................................... 28

5.4. Leverage points and intervention strategies ......................................................................... 33

VI. Discussion and conclusions ................................................................................................. 37

References........................................................................................................................................ 40

6

List of figures Figure 1: Forest cover change in Vietnam from 1943 to 2009 ..................................................... 9 Figure 2: The five phases of the modelling process ........................................................................ 17 Figure 3: The Central Highlands in Vietnam ...................................................................................... 21 Figure 4: Behaviour over time of some key variables in the deforestation system in the

Central Highlands ................................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 5: The forest transition curves: shape (A) and rationale (B) ......................................... 23 Figure 6: The process of deforestation……....………………………………………………………………24 Figure 7: The primary conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands ......... 24 Figure 8: The final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands ................ 26 Figure 9: Population growth and agricultural expansion loops ................................................. 29 Figure 10: The interrelationship between poverty and deforestation .................................... 30 Figure 11: Infrastructure development loops ................................................................................... 31 Figure 12: Logging motive loop ............................................................................................................... 32 Figure 13: Forest resource depletion loops ....................................................................................... 33 Figure 14: ‘Limit to growth’ system archetype ................................................................................. 34 Figure 15: ‘Shifting the burden’ system archetype .......................................................................... 35 Figure 16: ‘Fixes that fail’ system archetype ...................................................................................... 36 Figure 17: ‘Tragedy of the commons’ system archetype ............................................................... 37

List of tables Table 1: Positive feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands .......... 27 Table 2: Negative feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands ........ 28

7

I. Introduction

1.1. Background

Deforestation and forest degradation have been an issue of great concern due to their

contribution to global warming, biodiversity loss, soil degradation and desertification, and

threats to ecosystem services, livelihoods and cultural integrity of forest-dependent people

(Mahapatra and Kant, 2005, Turner et al., 2001, Barbier and Burgess, 2001, Angelsen and

Kaimowitz, 1999). During the 1980s, there was a loss of over 15 million hectares of tropical

forests every year (FAO, 1993 in Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999)). This led to a wide range

of policies to halt deforestation and thus, the annual forest loss declined to about 12 million

hectares from 1990 to 1995 (FAO, 1997 in Mahapatra and Kant (2005)). However, forest

areas in tropical regions have continued to decrease. This decline indicated that forests are

valued for short-term economic benefits rather than their long-term contribution to the

environment.

The history of humans is the history of deforestation. Human societies are closely associated

with forests since they provide food, fuels and ecosystem services that improve the quality of

life. Nowadays, nearly 1.6 billion people on the planet are entirely dependent on forests for

their livelihoods and cultural values (FAO, 2011, Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). During the past

two decades, global economic growth reached USD 70 trillion, a three-fold increase during

the period (FAO, 2011). However, along with rapid economic growth, natural resources

including forest resources have been over-exploited, causing numerous environmental

problems and serious consequences on the socio-economy. The decline in forests is mainly

the result of conversion of forestland for agricultural expansion and infrastructure

development (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). During the last decade, nearly 13 million hectares

of global forests each year were converted for other land uses (FAO, 2011). The important

underlying drivers of deforestation include increasing population, economic growth and

poverty, which lead to growing demands for agricultural land and forest products and

infrastructure development. These drivers, along with weak governance in forest protection

and management have put more pressure on forest areas.

Recent efforts in afforestation and reforestation have decreased the deforestation rate globally

(FAO, 2012). However, there is still forest loss in many regions, particularly in the tropics.

Policy makers have largely relied upon technical solutions such as afforestation and

reforestation programs but such programs are not adequate to control the disappearance of

tropical forests (Saxena, 1997). Plantation programs were developed but they could not

provide a variety of use and non-use benefits as produced by natural forests such as

8

biodiversity conservation, carbon storage and watershed protection (Barbier and Burgess,

2001). Protection and restoration of natural forests are therefore of crucial importance.

However, sustainable forest policies and practices can only be effective when the process

causing deforestation is well explained. It is necessary to understand not only direct drivers

but also underlying socio-economic factors influencing deforestation and their interactions as

a whole system so that effective forest policies can be developed.

1.2. Research problem

Accounting for 40% of the total land area and being rich in biodiversity, forests play a vital

role in poverty reduction, socio-economic development and environmental sustainability in

Vietnam (VNFOREST, 2013). Forest in Vietnam is among the highest biodiversity in the

world because of its abundant native wild animals and plant species (UN-REDD, 2011b).

There are approximately 25 million people, including 12 million ethnic minority people living

in forests (UN-REDD, 2011a). The country has encountered numerous problems in

sustainable forest management and development due to challenges of balancing

environmental, social and economic benefits.

Vietnam lost about half of its forest cover between 1943 and 1990, from 14.3 million hectares

to 9.2 million hectares, 43% and 27.2% of the total land area, respectively (VNFOREST,

2013). Since then, the Government has made substantial efforts to recover its forest cover. As

a result, forests have increased by approximately 2% per year (UN-REDD, 2011a). The total

forest cover in Vietnam in 2009 was 13.3 million hectares or 39.1% of the total land area

(UN-REDD, 2011a) (Figure 1). However, this trend is mainly the result of rapid growth in

plantation forests. Despite the increase in the forest area, deforestation and forest degradation

still occurs, particularly in the Central Highlands. It is estimated that the deforestation rate in

Vietnam is the second highest in the world after Nigeria (FAO, 2005 in UN-REDD (2011a)).

Besides, the quality and biodiversity of natural forests are continuously fragmented and

degraded. Nearly 70% of natural forests appear to be in poor quality (VNFOREST, 2013).

The Central Highlands has experienced the highest rate of deforestation in the country (FCPF,

2011). Approximately 206,000 hectares of forests (20% of the forest area) disappeared from

2005 to 2012 (Tan and Trang, 2013). Much of this disappearance is the result of forestland

conversion for rubber plantation and hydropower construction (Dinh, 2005). In addition,

illegal logging appears to be out of control because of weak governance in forest protection

and management (Pham et al., 2012).

9

Figure 1: Forest cover change in Vietnam from 1943 to 2009

(Source: DOFP (2011))

This serious loss of forests causes numerous concerns because the Central Highlands is home

to a large proportion of the ethnic minority communities who are spiritually and culturally

associated with forests and heavily depend upon forests for their survival (FCPF, 2011).

Besides, forests in the Central Highlands play a vital role in biodiversity conservation,

prevention of soil erosion and watershed protection for the surrounding areas (Hoan, 2013).

It is generally acknowledged that deforestation is driven by multiple and dynamic factors that

are not likely to be addressed in the forestry sector alone. Its causes and drivers come from

other sectors such as agriculture and infrastructure development and they are interrelated and

interact (Saxena, 1997). Initially, several causes or relationships may be dominant but they

may change their behaviour over time (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Deforestation therefore,

is a complex and dynamic process, which cannot be explained with a simple linear approach.

This research project demonstrates that effective forest policies and management practices

can only be developed using systems approaches.

II. Research significance and aims

Forests in the Central Highlands play an important role in livelihood improvement, poverty

reduction and job creation. With the current rapid economic growth rate and growing demand

for timber and forest products in domestic and global markets, it is challenging to stabilize

and increase the forest cover. Vietnam is considered among the countries most vulnerable to

climate change with serious impacts on the forest sector. Addressing deforestation is therefore

10

a key to mitigate and adapt to climate change and a significant contribution to sustainable

socio-economic development of the country.

However, deforestation is a complex process with multiple and interconnected drivers that

root in various sectors (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). These drivers interact in dynamic

relationships that need to be explained with a holistic approach. The aims of this research

project are therefore to: (i) identify drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of

Vietnam, (ii) explain the interactions of these drivers, and (iii) discuss the potential effects of

current forest-related policies, including their unintended consequences and interventions that

may improve policy performance.

To achieve these aims, three major research questions to be addressed are identified:

(i) What are the drivers of deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam?

(ii) How do these drivers interact?

(iii)What are the potential effects of current forest-related policies?

To deal with the complexity of the system, systems thinking methods are employed. By

applying these methods, this project aims to explain the root causes of deforestation and the

feedback mechanisms that control deforestation.

III. Literature review

3.1. Deforestation models

Economists have paid attention to analyses of tropical deforestation since the mid-1980s

(Barbier and Burgess, 2001). Many approaches to analyze deforestation have been developed

in the last decade (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Instrumental ways can be employed to

investigate the proximate factors of deforestation (such as logging and cash cropping)

whereas structural ways examine underlying or ultimate causes of deforestation (Hirsch,

1999). One popular method is to list factors and develop quantitative analysis, using

regression approach for example, to examine the effects of those factors on forest loss (Rudel,

1998 in Hirsch (1999)). Regression analysis is employed in most empirical models; primarily

using the standard ordinary least squares (OLS) method. It has been used in a large number of

studies in about 50 countries across Latin America, Africa and Asia to explore the causes of

tropical deforestation (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). However, they were unable to deal with

autocorrelation problems, causing the decline in variables below statistically acceptable levels

(Scrieciu 2007 in McCarthy and Tacconi (2011)).

11

Another model is to use structural analysis to investigate the interests in forest values among

various stakeholders so that analytical connection of ultimate and proximate causation is built

(Hirsch, 1999). Structural approaches often require an insight of the socio-economic, political

and ecological contexts where deforestation occurs (Hirsch, 1999). Besides, historical

analysis on forest cover change is employed in some cases to explain deforestation. Scales of

the analyses vary from local through national to global and thus, such analyses are generally

holistic.

Mahapatra and Kant, in one of their studies, used a multi-nominal logistic model to explore

the causes of deforestation (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Deforestation is not only driven by

the direct causes such as agricultural expansion and forest product consumption and export,

but also the underlying causes like population growth and economic growth that influence the

direct causes. The authors developed a model that incorporates explanatory variables (the

underlying causes) that originate from demographic, macroeconomic, agriculture,

infrastructure and political sectors (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). With the hypothesis that

explanatory variables may produce positive (increase in deforestation) and negative effects

(decrease in deforestation) through different mechanisms, these dual effects of each variable

were included in the model (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). That partly helps to overcome

shortcomings in some previous models when the direct and the underlying causes are used in

combination as explanatory variables that lead to incorrect results and misspecification of the

model (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005). Multinomial logistic models also produce more

informative and robust results than the binary logistic and the ordinary least squares methods

(Mahapatra and Kant, 2005).

In a review on the causes of tropical deforestation, Angelsen and Kaimowitz (1999)

synthesized the results of over 140 economic models and built a conceptual model to serve

their analysis (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). Three different levels are used to analyze

deforestation including: sources (agents of deforestation), immediate causes (decision

parameters such as institutions, infrastructure, markets and technology) and underlying causes

(macroeconomic variables and policy instruments) (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). These

three levels are clearly distinguished since microeconomic models tend to address the

immediate causes while macroeconomic models focus on the underlying causes. Besides, the

immediate causes are mainly determined by the underlying causes, and by sources of

deforestation (agents). Thus, a clear distinction between these levels is needed to avoid

confusing the causal relationships that are involved in this process (Angelsen and Kaimowitz,

1999).

12

Recent studies have focused on economic modeling approaches to investigate in much more

detail the underlying causes that influence deforestation and land use in tropical countries.

New methods like spatial analysis were introduced to demonstrate geographical factors in

understanding forestland use patterns (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). Simulation models at the

microeconomic level mainly used the linear approach while at the macroeconomic level are

computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (Angelsen and Kaimowitz, 1999). CGE

models have been widely employed to understand economic and policy impacts on

deforestation and agricultural development (Barbier and Burgess, 2001). To date, macro-level

models, particularly empirical models at cross-country level are the most popular tools for

modeling the economics of deforestation. But it has an unaddressed problem. This is related

to “one-way hypothesis of the effect of causal variables on deforestation” (Mahapatra and

Kant, 2005).

There are also a large number of studies analyzing the socio-economic factors influencing

deforestation, mainly focusing on macro-economic variables at global or regional levels. The

Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) model has been used to explain the relationships

between economic development (per capita income) and deforestation (McCarthy and

Tacconi, 2011). This model hypothesized that environmental quality gets worse as per capita

income increases until it reaches a critical transition point (Stern, 2004 in McCarthy and

Tacconi (2011)). However, EKC hypothesis has seemed not to be supported so far (Stern,

2004 in McCarthy and Tacconi (2011)) as it has produced mixed results (McCarthy and

Tacconi, 2011).

Several studies on deforestation were conducted at country and cross-country levels. These

studies examine the economic causes of deforestation based on statistical analyses of factors

influencing deforestation across tropical countries (Barbier and Burgess, 2001).

Besides, some other models are also employed including the Competing Land Use Models,

exploring the relationship between natural forest protection and agricultural conversion, the

Forest Land Conversion Models, dealing with the decisions on conversion of forested land of

agricultural households and the Institutional Models at country and cross-country levels,

focusing on institutional factors influencing deforestation such as property rights, land use

conflicts and political stability (Barbier and Burgess, 2001),.

As indicated above, many deforestation models have been developed to investigate the

process of deforestation. By the late 1990s, there were more than 150 models of deforestation

being developed (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). In general, economic models can be

employed to explore factors influencing land use and deforestation in tropical countries and in

13

fact, they can explain some of general trends of deforestation. However, it appears that these

models still lack regional or local features, particularly specific causes of deforestation in a

specific region or country (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011). Deforestation is not a homogenous

process (Lambin and Geist, 2003) but dynamic and complex with causal relationships among

its factors (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Causes of deforestation cannot be generalized at

global level but must be country specific (McCarthy and Tacconi, 2011).

Integrative approaches were used in developing models to understand the dynamics of

deforestation and other land-cover changes, such as in the southern Yucatan peninsular region

(Turner et al., 2001) and the Brazilian Amazon (Garcia et al., 2007). Garcia et al. (2007)

developed a model that integrates different levels of socioeconomic organization of

municipalities for the Brazilian Amazon to predict deforestation, including five components

that influence the mobility of deforestation: population, economic development, agrarian

infrastructure, agricultural and timber production and social development (Garcia et al.,

2007). In the southern Yucatan peninsular region project, the project developers tried to build

models that incorporate ecological, social and remote sensing sciences to monitor and predict

forest cover change under various assumptions (Turner et al., 2001).

In another study, Saxena and Nautiyal (1997) found that linear methods, such as statistical

techniques using the correlation and regression analyses were not useful in explaining

complex systems like deforestation (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). This is because such

methods ignored the feedback mechanisms between the factors influencing deforestation. In

statistical regression, the process of deforestation is analyzed on a factor-by-factor basis and

the causal relationships between factors were neglected (Saxena, 1997). Thus, policy

interventions recommended in these analyses appeared to be incomplete and ineffective.

Saxena and Nautiyal (1997) investigated deforestation at systems level, using a systems

dynamic approach to serve their analysis (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997). Since the systems

approach specifies the interrelationships between constituent elements of the system, it can

reveal the dynamic behavior of that system. It is hypothesized that the relationships between

various causes of deforestation can be linear or non-linear. A systems approach is useful to

incorporate all drivers of deforestation into one coherent framework that captures the

interactions among those causal factors (Saxena, 1997).

In summary, there were three main categories of approaches to the analysis of deforestation:

descriptive (e.g. structural analysis), theoretical (e.g. multi-nominal logistic) and empirical

(e.g. CGE models). These approaches identified numerous causes of deforestation, but they

either ignored the interactions between factors that directly influence or contribute to

14

deforestation or missed the dynamic links between forest systems with other socio-economic

systems (Saxena and Nautiyal, 1997).

The dynamics of deforestation are complex. The deforestation process is an outcome of the

interactions between the forest (bio-physical) and socio-economic systems and thus, the

causal relationships among factors are of crucial importance. Therefore, it is necessary to

apply a systems approach in understanding its complex proximate and underlying causes and

investigating dominant relationships so that effective policy intervention can be determined.

3.2. Drivers of deforestation in Vietnam

The drivers of deforestation and their underlying causes are multiple and highly complex

(Pham et al., 2012). They have changed throughout the course of the country’s history. For

example, much of the forest loss between 1943 and 1993 was due to war and the expansion of

agricultural areas by people from the lowlands migrating into the upland forested areas (Pham

et al., 2012). More recently, rapid economic growth and increasing demands for forest

products and agricultural land driven by population growth and migration are factors driving

change to Vietnam’s forests (FCPF, 2011). Besides, drivers of deforestation also differ from

region to region (Pham et al., 2012). Most forest loss in the North has largely been the result

of land conversion for crop production, while in the Mekong Delta in the South, it has been

converted to shrimp farms and aquaculture (Pham et al., 2012). In the uplands, large areas of

forest were lost due to land conversion for commercial and perennial crops (Pham et al.,

2012).

Currently, the main direct drivers of deforestation are generally agreed by the Ministry of

Agriculture and Rural Development to be the result of: (1) Conversion to agricultural land

(mainly for industrial perennial crops); (2) Unsustainable logging (particularly illegal

logging); (3) Infrastructure development (notably for hydropower installation); and (4) Forest

fires (FCPF, 2011, UN-REDD, 2010).

Land conversion to agricultural land

During the past five years, about 25,000 hectares of forestland was lost each year due to

conversion to other land uses (DOFP, 2010). Much of this conversion was the result of

farmland expansion. Vietnam becomes one of the leading exporters of agricultural

commodities in the world with its high export productivity in coffee, cashew, pepper,

shrimps, rice and rubber (FCPF, 2011). The expansion of industrial crops has increased

considerably during the recent years, from 1.3 million hectares in 2005 to 1.9 million hectares

in 2008 (Pham et al., 2012). The Central Highlands and the Southeast have experienced the

15

highest rate of deforestation mainly due to this recent expansion (FCPF, 2011). Some of the

agricultural policies have supported a large-scale expansion of industrial crops such as rubber

and coffee, leading to considerable forest disappearance. Between 1990 and 2000, coffee

areas in the Central Highlands grew from 50,000 to 500,000 hectares (FCPF, 2011).

Unsustainable logging

Unsustainable logging, including legal logging (licensed exploitation, usually takes place in

production forests) and ‘informal’ logging (unlicensed exploitation in natural forests) is

perceived as the main cause of forest degradation (Pham et al., 2012). This is primarily the

result of poor management practices and illegal logging activities (FCPF, 2011). Growing

demands for raw materials for paper production, mining and timber export has mainly driven

large-scale encroachment into natural forests. Between 1983 and 1993, there was a loss of

80,000 hectares of natural forests to supply the Bai Bang Paper Company (MARD, 2008).

More than 25,000 violations of state regulations with respect to unlicensed logging were

reported in 2009 (FCPF, 2011).

Infrastructure development

Incomplete infrastructure has restrained the economic growth of Vietnam. Therefore, the

Government has encouraged investment in infrastructure development, mostly in road

building and dam construction. As a result, large areas of forests have been destroyed. For

example, over 15,000 hectares of natural forests were lost due to the establishment of dams

along Dong Nai River (FCPF, 2011). Moreover, the installation of hydropower plants in the

uplands has led to the resettlement of a large proportion of residents who have no other choice

than to clear the forests for their subsistence.

Forest fires

Fire in forests is mainly the result of slash-and-burn practice, hunting and honey and wood

collecting by people in the uplands. It is estimated that over 6 million hectares of the

country’s forests is vulnerable to fire (Pham et al., 2012). During the period of 1992-2002,

there were about 6,000 hectares of forests being destroyed each year due to fires.

It is acknowledged that the indirect causes of deforestation in Vietnam involve increasing

demands for forest resources and agricultural products and economic growth (FCPF, 2011,

Pham et al., 2012). An important underlying factor driving agricultural expansion is

population growth that leads to growing demands for food, fuel and forest products. Vietnam

has experienced a rapid and substantial increase in its population during the past decades.

Besides, resident distribution is not equal throughout the country, with high densities in the

16

Red River Delta in the North and the Mekong River Delta in the South. To cope with that, a

series of policies on rural resettlement and new economic zone establishment were developed

during the period of 1990-2000 with the aim of encouraging migration to the uplands. This

migration put more pressure on forest areas as new migrants often convert forested land to

produce food for their survival (FCPF, 2011, Pham et al., 2012). Besides, a growing demand

for timber to make inexpensive furniture has led to the illegal extraction of wood in the

country. Vietnam has become one of the largest wood exporters in the world (FCPF, 2011). In

addition, some of the existing forest policies have unintentionally opened up opportunities for

illegal wood extraction. Weak land administration, particularly the corruption in forestland

allocation and poor governance of forests at the local level has led to further deforestation in

many parts of the country.

3.3. Forest policies in Vietnam

It appears that no strong policies were in place for forest protection in Vietnam before 1990.

In recognition of serious consequences of forest resource depletion, a series of policies were

introduced with the aim of increasing the overall forest cover in the country. The first major

policy initiative was the “National Target Program for Re-greening the Barren Hills and

mountains” (1992), which was replaced by the “Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program”

(1998). The objectives of these programs are to restore the protection and special-use forests.

The later Program “Support for Development of Forest Plantations in the period of 2007-

2015” focuses on production forests and aims to reduce pressure on natural forests. The goal

of these programs is to achieve 43% of forest cover of the total land area by 2015 (FSIV,

2009). Subsequently, the “Forest Protection and Development Strategy in the period of 2006-

2020” and a series of new laws on forest protection and development were also introduced to

establish a legal basis for forest protection. In general, as a result of these programs, the trend

of deforestation has been reversed. There was an increase of 30% of forest cover between

1990 and 2009 (FCPF, 2011). However, deforestation still occurs in some areas of the country

at high levels, which reflects the ineffectiveness of current forest policies. This will be

discussed in detail in Section V.

IV. Research methodologies

Today, systems thinking and system dynamics approaches have been increasingly used to

understand and manage the complexity of social, economic and environmental systems (Le et

al., 2012). By incorporating all components of the system, these methods produce a holistic

approach to complex and ambiguous systems (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Bosch et al., 2007).

17

Based on the consideration of the ‘whole’ system and of relationships of the constituent

elements, they enable detecting the root causes of the problem rather than just focusing on the

symptoms (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). Moreover, systems thinking and system

dynamics enable generating solution options to improve the situation (Maani and Cavana,

2007) and testing the potential effects of intervention strategies before applying them in

reality (Sherwood, 2002). Policy measures are thus evaluated and improved.

As mentioned earlier, deforestation is a complex and dynamic system and thus, systems

thinking and system dynamics approaches should be employed to investigate the root causes

and the feedback processes in that system. Within this research, systems thinking methods are

applied as the overall methodology to develop a conceptual model so that the drivers of

deforestation and their interactions can be identified and well explained. The research is

developed based on the existing literature and through discussions and consultation with

relevant people.

“Modelling is an iterative process” (Sterman, 2000). The systems thinking and modelling

process includes five main phases: Problem articulation; Formulation of a dynamic

hypothesis, Formulation of a simulation model; Testing; and Policy design and evaluation

(Figure 2). Each phase includes a number of steps but not all phases as well as steps are

compulsorily required (Maani and Cavana, 2007). It is the modellers’ decision to follow

phases, depending on the problems they are facing. The focus of this research is on the first

two phases (Problem articulation and Formulation of a dynamic hypothesis) that will be

described in the following section.

Problem articulation

Dynamic hypothesis

Simulation modelTesting

Policy design and

evaluation

Figure 2: The five phases of the modelling process

(Adapted from Sterman (2000))

18

Problem articulation

This phase allows the identification of the real problem, the purpose of model development

and main variables operating in the system, by focusing on the following questions:

(1) What are the problems that need to be addressed? Why is it a problem?

(2) What are root causes of the problems?

(3) What are the key variables that need to be considered?

(4) How far into the future and back into the past should the problems be considered?

(5) What is the historical behaviour of the key variables?

(Sterman, 2000, Mai, 2013).

By seeking the answers for these questions, the modeller will be able to define the real

problem of concern and clarify the purpose of their model that formulate a basis for a

successful model.

Behaviour over time

Behaviour over time (BOT), which is also known as ‘reference mode behaviour’ is a useful

tool of systems thinking to represent the trend and variation of a variable over an extended

period in the form of a graph or charts (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). A BOT graph

includes the horizontal axis representing time and the vertical axis representing the

performance indicator of interest (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Using BOT helps to capture the

underlying dynamics present in the system (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

Formulation of dynamic hypothesis

This phase aims to design a dynamic hypothesis that explains the BOT of the system

(Sterman, 2000). It involves the ‘initial hypothesis generation’ that determines the current

theories of behaviour and the ‘endogenous focus’ that formulates dynamic hypotheses

explaining the dynamics of the system through the interaction of its variables (Sterman,

2000). There is a range of techniques that help in formulating a dynamic hypothesis, such as

model boundary chart, subsystem diagrams, causal loop diagrams, stock and flow maps and

policy structure diagrams. Within this research, causal loop diagrams are used to represent the

causal links among the variables in the system (e.g. factors driving deforestation).

Causal loop diagrams

A causal loop diagram (CLD) is a flexible tool to reveal the causal relationships among the

variables in a system (Sterman, 2000, Maani and Cavana, 2007). By capturing hypotheses

about the causes of the problem or the mental models of individuals or groups, a CLD is a

useful tool to represent the feedback mechanisms within a system (Sterman, 2000). CLDs

19

consist of variables (factors) connected by arrows (links) that show the causal relationships

between variables (Maani and Cavana, 2007). An arrow can be labelled as ‘+’ when two

variables move in the same direction or ‘-’ when they move in opposite directions (Maani and

Cavana, 2007). In other words, a positive link means that the cause and effect variables move

up and down together while a negative link indicates that if the cause variable moves up, the

effect variable will move down and vice versa (Sterman, 2000, Maani and Cavana, 2007).

There are two types of feedback loops represented in a CLD: Reinforcing (R) or positive

feedback loops and Balancing (B) or negative feedback loops (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

Reinforcing loops represent a growing or declining action whereas balancing loops seek a

goal or an equilibrium state (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013). A CLD may consist of a

number of reinforcing and balancing loops and ‘delay’ (//) which is the time lapse between a

cause and its effects (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Delays are often responsible for trade-offs

between the short- and long-term effects of policies and may cause unintended consequences

(Sterman, 2000, Mai, 2013).

Systems archetypes and leverage points

Systems archetypes are generic systems structures or templates that can present various

situations (Maani and Cavana, 2007). They provide a high-level map of dynamic processes

and suggest areas of leverage change (Maani and Cavana, 2007, Senge, 1991).

In systems thinking, leverage means “actions or interventions that can have a lasting impact

on the system in terms of reversing a trend” (Maani and Cavana, 2007). Leverage points may

lie in any complex system (Mai, 2013). Intervention strategies can be developed based on

leverage points that can be identified in system archetypes (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

V. Systems model of deforestation in the Central Highlands of

Vietnam

5.1. Introduction

The Central Highlands in Vietnam, including five provinces Kon Tum, Gia Lai, Dak Lak,

Dak Nong and Lam Dong, form a plateau (Figure 3). It is one of the two agro-ecological

zones of the country. With the basalt soil at the average altitude of 500-600m, this region is

particularly appropriate for the production of industrial crops such as coffee, cocoa, pepper,

cashew and rubber. Currently, coffee is the most important industrial plant in this region. It is

also the second largest region for rubber plantations in the country.

20

The Central Highlands is home to a large proportion of the ethnic minority communities.

Before 1954, a vast majority of the region’s population was ethnic minorities (Hirsch, 1999).

Under the resettlement policies, the region has become the destination of millions of Kinh

(ethnic Vietnamese) people who migrate from the lowlands to settle in the New Economic

Zones (Hirsch, 1999). The region’s population increased considerably as a result of this

resettlement scheme. In 1991, it was 2.8 million people but by 2000, it had reached 4.2

million (Xuan et al., 2010). Population growth is considered to be one of the leading causes of

poverty and natural resources exploitation within the region.

With its high terrain and numerous waterfalls, the Central Highlands has abundant

hydropower potential. Many hydropower plants have operated in the region with high

capacity such as Da Nhim (160,000 kW), Dray H’inh (12,000 kW) and Yaly (700,000 kW).

The Central Highlands comprises numerous forests and national parks. Its forest cover is

among the highest in the country, more than 40% of the total land area, with high

concentration of timber resources and wood stocks (FSIV, 2009). Forests in the Central

Highlands play a vital role in biodiversity conservation, soil erosion prevention and watershed

protection for the surrounding areas (Pham et al., 2012).

During the Second Indochina War (Vietnam War), approximately two million hectares of

forests in the Central Highlands were damaged due to chemical defoliants such as the Agent

Orange used by the United States Air Force (Hirsch, 1999). These defoliants were used to

destroy the crops and the vegetation cover where Vietnamese soldiers hid from attacks.

As a result of some forest policies such as the “National Target Program for Re-greening the

Barren Hills and mountains” (1992) and the “Five Million Hectare Reforestation Program”

(1998), the forest cover of the Central Highlands increased. However, contrary to other

regions in Vietnam, this region has experienced a rapid and extensive forest loss during the

last decade. Approximately 206,000 hectares of forests (20% of the forest area) disappeared

between 2005 to 2012 (Tan and Trang, 2013). Forest resource depletion has resulted in the

decline in timber extraction output, from 600,000-700,000 m3/year in the late 1980s-early

1990s to 200,000-300,000 m3/year at present (FREC and FIPI, 2011).

Much of forest loss in the Central Highlands appears to be the result of forestland conversion

for industrial crops and hydropower construction (Dinh, 2005). In addition, illegal logging is

most likely to be out of control partly because of the weak governance in forest protection and

management (Pham et al., 2012). The main indirect causes of deforestation in the Central

Highlands include population growth and economic growth, which increase the demands for

forest products and agricultural land. However, underlying these drivers are policies that have

21

unintentionally put further pressure on the forests in the region. These will be discussed in

detail in the analysis of the conceptual model.

Figure 3: The Central Highlands in Vietnam

(Source: www.nchmf.gov.vn)

5.2. Behaviour over time

In order to understand the complexity of the deforestation system in the Central Highlands,

the Behaviour Over Time (BOT) of some key variables were identified. Along with the

reduction in the forest area, environmental quality is also declining whereas the poverty level

amongst forest dependent people is high (Sunderline and Huynh, 2005). The Central

Highlands is among the regions with the highest incidence of poverty (Sunderline and Huynh,

2005). Although there were no exact data for all key variables, the graphs in Figure 4

presented the overall trend of some variables over time. The following section will discuss

interrelationships and interactions between these key variables.

22

Figure 4: Behaviour over time of some key variables in the deforestation system in the

Central Highlands

5.3. Causal loop diagrams

Some studies explained the changes of forest areas by introducing the Forest Transition

concept (Mather (1992), Walker (1993) and Grainger (1995) in Köthke et al. (2013)). The

decrease in the forest area is initially the result of increasing demands for agricultural land

(Figure 5). However, the forest area can recover due to the progress in agricultural

productivity that enables the abandonment of less productive areas (Köthke et al., 2013).

Some factors may delay this transition like increasing demands for food driven by population

growth, or accelerate it like the progress in technology (Köthke et al., 2013).

23

Figure 5: The forest transition curves: shape (A) and rationale (B)

(Source: Köthke et al. (2013))

Deforestation can be explained based on a structure in dynamic systems called S-shaped

growth where there is an exponential growth at first, then a gradual slowing until an

equilibrium level is reached (Sterman, 2000). Deforestation may initially increase as a result

of land required for agriculture, but this reinforcing feedback will be limited by a balancing

feedback. This is because as the total area of forest remaining is reduced through

deforestation, the area available for conversion to agriculture is reduced and the pressures

(such as political pressure) that counteract deforestation increase. If the progress in

afforestation and reforestation can be achieved, a decline in deforested area will occur (Figure

6).

24

Figure 6: The process of deforestation

(Adapted from Köthke et al. (2013))

Based on this hypothesis, a simple CLD is developed to explain different phases of

deforestation (Figure 7). Land conversion for agriculture drives the reinforcing phase of

deforestation while the decline in the forest estate represents the balancing phase. The

reinforcing phase might be dominant at first but as the carrying capacity is reached, the

balancing phase will occur and limit the growth.

As indicated in Figure 7, increasing demands for agricultural products results in more land

converted to agriculture. When forests are cleared, available land for agriculture increases,

leading to a rise in agricultural productivity. This increase will fuel economic growth, which

in turn leads to increasing demand for agricultural products. Contrary to the reinforcing loop,

the balancing loop shows how deforestation is controlled. When the forest estate declines as

the result of forest clearing, deforestation decreases because of the limit of the total forest

area. The growth of deforestation will be counteracted, as the balancing phase becomes

dominant.

Demand for

agricultural products

Economic growth Forest clearingForest estate

Land conversion

for agriculture

Available land for

agricultureAgricultural

productivity

Total forest area

+

+

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

R B

Figure 7: The primary conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands

25

5.3.1. Final conceptual model of deforestation

Figure 8 represents the final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands. This

model was developed based on the existing literature on deforestation in the Central

Highlands and consultation with some staff in the School of Agriculture and Food Science at

The University of Queensland and in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development of

Vietnam. The model can illustrate the big picture of deforestation in the Central Highlands

and the dynamic relationships among factors present in the deforestation system.

Key variables and feedback loops are listed in Table 1 and Table 2. There are nine main

reinforcing loops (R1 to R9) and eight main balancing loops (B1 to B8) in the conceptual

model. The reinforcing loops represent the current dominant mechanisms driving the growth

in deforestation while the balancing loops limit this growth, but are currently sub-dominant.

Migration to

forested areas

Population growth

Demand for

agricultural products

Land conversion

for agriculture

Deforestation

Available land for

agricultureAgricultural

productivity

Income generation

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Forest estate

-

Global demand for

agricultural

commodities

+

Policies on

agricultural

expansion

+

Agricultural export

+

Forest products

Soil degradation

Water in soil and

groundwaterLivelihoods

Community

concern

Pressure on halting

deforestation

+

-++

-

+

Poverty

+

+

Employment

opportunities+

+

Total forest area

+

Hydropower

operation

+

+

+ -+

+

Energy demand

Land conversion for

infrastructure

development

Economic growth

+

Available land for

hydropower

Electricity output+

+

Resettlement

Demand for

hydropower

++

+

+Slash and burn

practice

Forest fires

+

+

+

+

+

Forest protection

policies

Cultural values

Biodiversity

GHG emissions

Climate change

Demand for timber

Logging motives

Global growth

Living standard

+

+

+

Timber

Revenue+

Weak governance

+

Poor awareness

++

+

+

+

+-

-

++

+

-

+

+

-

+

+

+

R1

R2

R4

B1

-

B2

B3B4

B5

B6 B7

B8

+

R5

R6

R9

+

-+

R7

R8

R3

Figure 8: The final conceptual model of deforestation in the Central Highlands

Table 1: Positive feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands

Loop name Loop

number

Key variables

Population growth

and agricultural

expansion

R1 Population growth, migration to forested area,

demand for agricultural products, land conversion for

agriculture, deforestation, available land for

agriculture, agricultural productivity, income

generation

R2 Population growth, migration to forested area,

demand for agricultural products, land conversion for

agriculture, deforestation, available land for

agriculture, agricultural productivity, employment

opportunities

R3 Population growth, poverty, policies on agricultural

expansion, land conversion for agriculture,

deforestation, available land for agriculture,

agricultural productivity, economic growth, demand

for agricultural products

R4 Global demand for agricultural commodities, policies

on agricultural expansion, land conversion for

agriculture, deforestation, available land for

agriculture, agricultural productivity, agricultural

export, economic growth

R5 Population growth, poverty, demand for agricultural

products, slash and burn practice, forest fires,

deforestation, forest estate

R6 Population growth, poverty, policies on agricultural

expansion, land conversion for agriculture,

deforestation, forest estate

Infrastructure

development

R7 Economic growth, energy demand, demand for

hydropower, land conversion for infrastructure

development, deforestation, available land for

hydropower, electricity output

R8 Economic growth, energy demand, demand for

hydropower, resettlement, deforestation, timber,

revenue

Logging motives R9 Economic growth, living standard, demand for

timber, logging motives, deforestation, timber,

revenue

28

Table 2: Negative feedback loops of deforestation system in the Central Highlands

Loop name Loop

number

Key variables

Forest resource

depletion

B1 Deforestation, forest estate

B2 Deforestation, forest estate, soil degradation,

agricultural productivity, livelihoods, community

concern, pressure on halting deforestation, forest

protection policies

B3 Deforestation, forest estate, water in soil and

groundwater, agricultural productivity, livelihoods,

community concern, pressure on halting

deforestation, forest protection policies

B4 Deforestation, forest estate, forest products,

livelihoods, community concern, pressure on halting

deforestation, forest protection policies

B5 Deforestation, forest estate, biodiversity, community

concern, pressure on halting deforestation, forest

protection policies

B6 Deforestation, forest estate, GHG emissions, climate

change, community concern, pressure on halting

deforestation, forest protection policies

B7 Deforestation, forest estate, cultural values,

community concern, pressure on halting

deforestation, forest protection policies

B8 Deforestation, forest estate, water in soil and ground

water, hydropower operation, electricity output,

community concern, pressure on halting

deforestation, forest protection policies

5.3.2. Analysis of key loops

Population growth and agricultural expansion

About two centuries ago, Malthus stated that population growth would increase pressure on

natural resources, including land and forests (Palo, 1994 in Mahapatra and Kant (2005)). This

is because population growth will lead to growing demands for food, fuel, shelter and income

generation through logging (Mahapatra and Kant, 2005).

Vietnam is among the countries that have large populations. In 2009, the total population was

89 million, including about 25 million ethnic minority people living in and close to forested

areas (Pham et al., 2012). It is estimated that Vietnam’s population will reach 100 million by

2020 (Pham et al., 2012). This rapid growth has resulted in a range of rural resettlement

policies introduced by the Government. One of the major policies is the development of New

Economic Zones in mountainous areas and islands where migration from the lowlands was

encouraged (Pham et al., 2012). From 1975 to 2000, over six million people migrated from

the lowlands of Vietnam to the Central Highlands (FCPF, 2011), leading to an increasing

29

demand for agricultural land and forest products. Much of forestland has been cleared for

agriculture by new migrants (Pham et al., 2012).

The reinforcing loops R1 and R2 (Figure 9) indicate the relationships between population

growth and deforestation. As population grows, demand for agricultural products increases,

leading to more conversion of forestland for agriculture to serve the population. As more land

for agriculture is available, agricultural productivity will increase, which results in more

employment opportunities and income generation for local people (Mahapatra and Kant,

2005). These in turn encourage further migration to the Central Highlands. This migration has

significantly contributed to vast deforestation during the last decades (FCPF, 2011).

Moreover, due to increasing global demands for agricultural commodities, several policies on

expansion of the perennial industrial crops such as coffee, cashew, pepper and rubber were

introduced (FCPF, 2011). The recent expansion of these crops has concentrated in the Central

Highlands and the Southeast of Vietnam (Hang et al., 2011). As a result of more land devoted

for the industrial crops, agricultural export production rises, contributing to rapid economic

growth and further demand for cash crops (Reinforcing loop R4).

Migration to

forested areas

Population growth

Demand for

agricultural products

Land conversion

for agriculture

Deforestation

Available land for

agriculture

Agricultural

productivity

Income generation

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

+

Global demand for

agricultural

commodities

+

Policies on

agricultural

expansion

+

Agricultural export

+

Employment

opportunities

+

+

+

Economic growth

+

+

+

R1

R2

R4+

Figure 9: Population growth and agricultural expansion loops

30

In addition, as presented in the reinforcing loop R3 (Figure 10), to cope with poverty that is

mainly driven by population growth, a number of agricultural development policies were

introduced to achieve food self-sufficiency for ethnic minority people in mountainous regions

(Pham et al., 2012). More forestland was cleared for agriculture, which leads to an increase in

agricultural productivity and economic growth. As a result of economic growth, demand for

agricultural products continues to increase, leading to further conversion of forestland.

The reinforcing loop R5 (Figure 10) shows the vicious circle of poverty in the Central

Highlands. Poor communities have been using unsustainable practices such as slash and burn

agriculture to make a living (FCPF, 2011). Trees are burnt due to escaped fires from slash and

burn practice, which increased the depletion of forest resources, while these communities

themselves need forest products for fuel, construction and income (Sunderline and Huynh,

2005). The high dependence on forests makes them unable to escape from poverty. Besides,

policies to encourage the industrial crops without consideration of forest conservation have

exacerbated poverty. Many people have not benefited from coffee and rubber plantations

while their livelihoods are threatened by forest loss (Reinforcing loop R6).

Population growthDemand for

agricultural productsLand conversion

for agriculture

Deforestation

Available land for

agriculture

Agricultural

productivity

+

+

+

+

+

Policies on

agricultural

expansion

+

Poverty

++

+

Economic growthSlash and burn practice

Forest fires

+

+

+

+

R5

R6

+

R3

Forest estate

-

-

Figure 10: The interrelationship between poverty and deforestation

31

Infrastructure development

The development of infrastructure is most likely to address the growing demand for energy

driven by economic growth. Because it is mountainous, the Central Highlands is very suitable

for hydropower, making it a strategic region for hydropower construction. As natural forests

are cleared for hydropower plants, dams and roads, more land becomes available for

hydropower and electricity output increases (Figure 11). This helps to boost economic

growth. This growth, in turn accelerates demand for energy (Reinforcing R7). As a result of

hydropower development, a vast number of ethnic minority people have been displaced to

other areas (Reinforcing R8). This resettlement is destructive to their livelihoods and gives

them no other choice but to clear more forest areas so that they can earn a living, and thereby

increasing deforestation (FCPF, 2011).

Deforestation

Energy demandLand conversion for

infrastructure

development

Economic growth

+

Available land for

hydropowerElectricity output

+

+

Resettlement

Demand for

hydropower+

+

+

+

+

Timber Revenue+

+

++

R7

R8

Figure 11: Infrastructure development loops

Logging motives

Rapid economic growth of the globe in general and Vietnam in particular, has led to a

growing demand for timber. As a result, unsustainable logging, including legal and illegal

logging takes place widely in the Central Highlands. Poor awareness and weak governance in

forest protection at local level allow logging motives to continue unabated (Pham et al.,

2012). Economic gains from timber extraction have resulted in an increasing demand for

timber and further logging, as illustrated in the reinforcing R9 (Figure 12).

32

Deforestation

R9

Economic growth

Demand for timber

Logging motives of

natural forests

Living standard

+

+

Timber

Revenue

+

Weak governance

at local level

+

Poor awareness

+

+

+

+

+

+

Figure 12: Logging motive loop

Forest resource depletion

Deforestation cannot continue indefinitely because there are balancing loops in the system

that limit the reinforcing loops driving deforestation. The balancing loop B1 represents a

counteracting process whereby deforestation cannot clear more forest than that available

(Figure 13). Because of the over-conversion of forestland for agriculture and infrastructure

development, forest resources have been declined seriously, leading to a reduction of water in

soil and groundwater (Le, 2013). Water shortage makes it difficult for hydropower operation

and agricultural production, affecting the livelihoods of local people (Hoan, 2013). Recent

conferences on forests in the Central Highlands have highlighted the urgency of controlling

deforestation by terminating projects that convert forestland to non-forestry uses (Linh, 2013).

Furthermore, the decrease in the forest estate has resulted in the decline in forest products and

biodiversity, the increase in soil degradation and the growth in greenhouse gas emissions,

leading to rising community concern (Hoan, 2013, Le, 2013). Forest estate reduction also

poses a threat to the cultural values of the region when forest-related traditional festivals are

affected (Hoan, 2013). These all have led to increasing pressures to halt deforestation, as

showed in the balancing loops B2 to B8. Policies on forest protection have been introduced to

control deforestation in the region (FREC and FIPI, 2011).

33

DeforestationAgricultural

productivity

Forest estate

-

Forest products

Soil degradation

Water in soil and

groundwater

Livelihoods

Community

concern

Pressure on halting

deforestation

+

-

++

-

+

Total forest area

+

Hydropower

operation

+

-

++

Electricity output+

Forest protection

policies

Cultural values

Biodiversity

GHG emissions

Climate change

+

-

-

++

+

-

+

+

-

B1

-

B2

B3

B4

B5

B6

B7

B8

Figure 13: Forest resource depletion loops

5.4. Leverage points and intervention strategies

‘Limit to growth’ archetype

This type of system archetype consists of a reinforcing and a balancing loop (Maani and

Cavana, 2007). While the reinforcing process accelerates the growth or expansion of the

system, the balancing process pushes it back (Mai, 2013).

As illustrated in Figure 14, deforestation in the Central Highlands increases because it is

driven by economic growth. Due to the growth of the economy, demands for agricultural

products, as well as for energy, increase. These lead to forest clearing for agricultural

expansion and infrastructure development. More available land will increase agricultural

production and electricity output, in turn promoting economic growth. However, the

balancing loop indicates that there is a limiting force (the total forest area) that can limit the

growth of deforestation. The decline in the forest estate will halt deforestation because of the

pressure from the community.

34

Economic growth

Demand for

agricultural products

Deforestation

Available land for

agriculture

Agricultural

productivity

Forest estate

+

+ -

-+

+

+

Total forest area

+

R B

Community concern

-

Economic growth

Energy demand

Deforestation

Available land for

hydropowerElectricity output

Forest estate

+

-

-+

+

+

Total forest area

+

RB

Hydropower

projects

+

+

Community concern

-

Figure 14: ‘Limit to growth’ system archetype

The key leverage point for this case is to find ways to strengthen the limiting force and

weaken the reinforcing process so as to slow deforestation. Leverage points can lie in both

reinforcing and balancing loops. In this case, reducing the conversion of forestland to other

land uses should be applied. Specifically, the pressure on land conversion for agriculture can

be reduced through applying improved farming techniques, which requires less agricultural

land (UN-REDD, 2011b). Also, energy development policies focusing on alternative energy

sources rather than hydropower should be introduced so as to reduce land required for

hydropower development.

Another solution, identified in the balancing loop, is to increase the total forest area through

afforestation and reforestation. Specifically, afforestation programs implemented by

hydropower project owners should be encouraged as an offset for forest areas lost due to these

projects. However, this intervention should be applied along with other solutions because it

may cause side effects that will be discussed in the following system archetype.

35

‘Shifting the burden’ archetype

This archetype represents the situation in which people tend to adopt quick fixes to deal with

the problem symptoms rather than implementing fundamental solutions (Maani and Cavana,

2007). The quick fixes can create side effects and delays that exacerbate the problem

symptoms and increase the need for further quick fixes (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

The balancing loop B1 in Figure 15 represents how the quick fix (reforestation) works to halt

the decline in the forest estate. However, this fix has resulted in the growing dependence on

reforestation, which delays natural forest protection (Balancing loop B2). The reinforcing

loop shows that the quick fix (reforestation) has caused procrastination in implementing the

fundamental solution of stronger forest protection policies. Over time, the delay in

implementing these policies will only lead to further forest estate depletion and an increase in

the need for further reforestation. The potential intervention for this problem is to focus on the

fundamental solution, which is stronger forest protection policy.

Reforestation

Growing dependence

on reforestationForest estate depletion

Natural forest

protection

+

-

+

+

B1

B2

-

-

R

Figure 15: ‘Shifting the burden’ system archetype

‘Fixes that fail’ archetype

This is the situation where undesirable consequences follow a well-intentioned action (Maani

and Cavana, 2007). A fix may help to tackle the problem in the short run but cause

unintended or even harmful effects, which result in the reversion of the system to its original

condition after delays (Maani and Cavana, 2007).

36

Figure 16 shows one of the causes of poverty in the Central Highlands. Slash and burn

practice has been widely applied in this region to increase agricultural production and reduce

poverty (Balancing loop B). However, the inhabitants have been unable to escape from

poverty. This is because their slash and burn practice has caused forest fires leading to the

decline in the forest estate. As their income also comes from forests, the decline of forest

resources has led to increasing poverty in the region (Reinforcing R).

To tackle this problem, the local authority should implement measures to reduce slash and

burn practice, including raising community awareness on the negative effects of this practice

and strengthening programs on fire prevention in the forests. Another potential strategy is to

develop alternative farming systems and livelihood opportunities so that people are less

dependent on slash and burn agriculture for their livelihoods.

PovertySlash and burn

practice

Forest fires

Forest estate

+

+Agricultural

products

Forest products

-

+

-

+

-

B

R

Figure 16: ‘Fixes that fail’ system archetype

‘Tragedy of the commons’ archetype

Hardin (1968) described this archetype as a situation where a common pool resource is over

exploited (Maani and Cavana, 2007). This happens when everyone wants to gains the benefits

from the common resources, leading to undesirable consequences for all concerned (Maani

and Cavana, 2007, Mai, 2013).

In the Central Highlands, timber-processing enterprises have tried to extract as much timber

as they can so that the maximum net gain can be obtained (Reinforcing loops R1 and R2 in

Figure 17). However, as each timber processor tries to maximise their net gain from the

forest, the total timber resource is depleted, reducing the net gain for everyone after a delay

(Balancing loops B1 and B2).

37

One solution to deal with this archetype is to strengthen campaigns to raise public awareness

on the limit of the common resources that they are sharing. At the same time, measures to

restrict over-exploitation of timber should be applied, such as setting harvesting quotas.

Timber

extraction of ARevenue of A

Timber

extraction of BRevenue of B

Total timber output Timber available

Timber limit

+

+

+

+

-

+

+

+

+

+

R1

R2

B1

B2

Figure 17: ‘Tragedy of the commons’ system archetype

VI. Discussion and conclusions

This research indicates that deforestation in the Central Highlands of Vietnam is governed by

several drivers that exist not only in the forestry sector but other economic sectors such as

agriculture and infrastructure development. Specifically, the direct causes of deforestation in

the Central Highlands are land conversion for agricultural expansion and for infrastructure

development, logging motives and forest fires. These factors are mainly influenced by

growing demand for forest resources, agricultural products and for hydropower that are driven

by population growth and economic growth.

The systems analysis has highlighted some potential unintended consequences of current

forest-related policies. For example, the afforestation programs have not reversed the rate of

deforestation in the Central Highlands but have resulted in a delay on the development of

natural forest protection policy. The slash and burn practice that has been used by many

ethnic minority people to tackle poverty has not reduced poverty in the region but has

38

exacerbated it through further forest loss. Focusing on agricultural expansion, particularly

cash crops, without considering forest conservation has exacerbated poverty because not

everyone benefits from agricultural expansion and those who are dependent on forests for

their livelihoods have become even further disadvantaged. The policies to encourage

migration to the Central Highlands, as well as hydropower development policies, have

resulted in further deforestation.

Deforestation is a complex, multi-dimensional and dynamic process. Through the analysis of

deforestation system in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, it can be clearly seen that

deforestation interacts with socio-economic sectors such as agriculture and infrastructure

development. Therefore, it is necessary to use a systems approach in order to have a

comprehensive understanding of the root causes of deforestation as well the feedback

mechanisms influencing it.

Previous studies have failed to capture the dynamics of deforestation as they simply identified

the factors driving deforestation rather than explaining the feedback mechanisms that these

factors are involved. By employing a systems thinking approach, this research not only

detects numerous direct, indirect and underlying drivers of deforestation in the Central

Highlands, but also reveal their interactions through reinforcing and balancing feedback

loops.

These loops can present the non-linear dynamics of the system. At any given point in time,

some loops will be dominant (e.g. deforestation for other land uses which increase economic

growth and the need for further deforestation) and have most influence on the trajectory of the

system. However, loops shift in dominance over time and it is these shifts in loop dominance

that generates the complex system behaviour. Therefore, complex system dynamics can be

created from a relatively small number of feedback loops. Consequently, in order to

understand complex system behaviour, it is not enough to understand the parts, but must also

understand how the parts interact.

This study also reveals the shortcomings of the existing policies in the Central Highland.

These policies have not been effective because they only focus on one sector or a small

number of factors influencing deforestation. For example, policies on agricultural expansion,

aiming to reduce poverty in the region, have not foreseen that poverty in the region is not only

driven by population growth but by forest depletion. Even though the agricultural expansion

policies have produced satisfactory results in the short term, they have failed to tackle poverty

in the region in the long term. Similarly, afforestation has not been sufficient to offset forest

loss caused by forestland conversion for other purposes and has resulted in a delay in the

39

implementation of stronger forest protection policies.

Using systems thinking, a better insight into the deforestation process in the Central

Highlands of Vietnam has been achieved. Thus some potential interventions can be

recommended to reverse the deforestation trend. They include applying advanced farming

techniques that reduce land demand and provide alternatives to slash and burn agriculture,

developing alternative energy sources rather than hydropower, strengthening programs on

forest protection in combination with afforestation and reforestation, enhancing forest fire

prevention, implementing alternative livelihood programs to alleviate poverty, and

introducing measures to restrict unsustainable timber extraction. More importantly, it is

argued that these interventions should be implemented simultaneously because none of them

are silver bullets that will adequately address deforestation on their own.

The conceptual model developed in this research is based on the current literature, the

author’s understanding and discussions with some relevant people, and thus cannot include all

aspects of the deforestation system. Further studies are required to develop more

comprehensive conceptual models that can capture the concerns of all relevant stakeholders in

the Central Highlands. Moreover, a simulation model developed based on the conceptual

model and existing data is necessary so that potential intervention strategies can be designed,

evaluated and tested before being applied in reality.

40

References ANGELSEN, A. & KAIMOWITZ, D. 1999. Rethinking the causes of deforestation: Lessons

from economic models. Oxford Journals, 14, 73-98. BARBIER, E. B. & BURGESS, J. C. 2001. The Economics of tropical deforestation. Journal of

Economic Surveys, 15, 413 - 433 BOSCH, O., KING, C., HERBOHN, J., RUSSEL, I. & SMITH, C. 2007. Getting the big picture in

natural resource management - Systems Thinkings as 'method' for scientists, policy makers and other stakeholders. Systems Research and Behavioral Science, 24, 217-32.

DINH, D. T. 2005. Forestry, Poverty Reduction and Rural Livelihoods in Vietnam”. Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam.

DOFP 2010. Data of changes in the forest of Vietnam from 2002 to 2009. Hanoi, Vietnam: Department of Forestry and Planning, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development.

DOFP 2011. Presentation for assessment of R-PP of Vietnam. The 8th REDD Participants’ Committee Meeting Da Lat, Vietnam.

FAO 2011. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010 - main report. Rome, Italy. FAO 2012. State of the World's Forest. Rome, Italy: Food and Agriculture Organization. FCPF 2011. FCPF Readiness Preparation Proposal. In: DEVELOPMENT, M. O. A. A. R.

(ed.). Vietnam: Forest Carbon Partnership Facility. FREC & FIPI 2011. Establishment of forest status map in 2011 and analysis of forest

changes during the period from 2005-2011 in Di Linh and Lam Ha District of Lam Dong Province. Ha Noi, Vietnam: Forest Inventory and Planning Institute, Forest Resources and Environment Center.

FSIV 2009. Vietnam Forestry Outlook Study, Asia-Pacific Forestry Sector Outlook Study II Working Paper. Bangkok: Forest Science Institute of Vietnam.

GARCIA, R. A., SOARES-FILHO, B. S. & SAWYER, D. O. 2007. Socioeconomic dimensions, migration, and deforestation: An integrated model of territorial organization for the Brazilian Amazon. Ecological Indicators, 7, 719-730.

HANG, N., KILLMANN, W., PHAM, X. P. & TRINES, E. 2011. Vietnam National REDD+ Programme: Background document. UN -REDD Programme.

HIRSCH, P. 1999. UNDERLYING CAUSES OF DEFORESTATION IN THE MEKONG REGION. Australian Mekong Resource Centre, School of Geosciences, University of Sydney.

HOAN, C. 2013. Forest protection in the Central Highlands [Online]. Vietnam: Sai Gon Giai Phong Online. [Accessed 10 April 2013].

KÖTHKE, M., LEISCHNER, B. & ELSASSER, P. 2013. Uniform global deforestation patterns — An empirical analysis. Forest Policy and Economics, 28, 23-37.

LAMBIN, E. F. & GEIST, H. J. 2003. Regional differences in tropical deforestation. Environment, 45, 22-36.

LE, D. H., SMITH, C., HERBOHN, J. & HARRISON, S. 2012. More than just trees: Assessing reforestation success in tropical developing countries. JOurnal of Rural Studies, 28, 5-19.

LE, H. B. 2013. Environmental impacts of deforestation [Online]. Vietnam: babelake.vn. [Accessed 1 April 2013].

LINH, N. 2013. Forest management in the Central Highlands [Online]. Vietnam: The Government of Vietnam's online newspaper. [Accessed 1 April 2013].

MAANI, K. E. & CAVANA, R. Y. 2007. Systems Thinking, System Dynamics: Managing Change and Complexity, Auckland, New Zealand, Prentice Hall.

MAHAPATRA, K. & KANT, S. 2005. Tropical deforestation: a multinominal logistic model and some country-specific policy prescriptions. Forest Policy and Economics, 7, 1-24.

41

MAI, V. T. 2013. Sustainable Tourism - Systems Thinking and System Dynamic Approaches: A case study in Cat Ba Biosphere Reserve of Vietnam. Degree of Doctor of Philosophy, The University of Queensland.

MARD 2008. Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (FCPF) Readiness Plan Idea Note (R-PIN) Template. In: DEVELOPMENT, M. O. A. A. R. (ed.). Vietnam.

MCCARTHY, S. & TACCONI, L. 2011. The political economy of tropical deforestation: assessing models and motives. Environmental Politics, 20, 115-132.

PHAM, T. T., MOELIONO, M., NGUYEN, T. H., NGUYEN, H. T. & VU, T. H. 2012. The context of REDD+ in Vietnam: Drivers, agents and institutions. Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).

SAXENA, A. K. 1997. Deforesation: Causes and sustainable solutions with reference to India.

SAXENA, A. K. & NAUTIYAL, J. C. 1997. Analyzing deforestation. Journal of Sustainable Forestry, 5, 51-80.

SENGE, P. M. 1991. The fifth discipline: The art and practice of the learning organization, Random House.

SHERWOOD, D. 2002. Seeing the forest for the trees: A manager's guide to applying Systems Thinking, London, UK, Nicholas Brealey Publishing.

STERMAN, J. 2000. Business dynamics: Systems thinking and modelling for a complex world, Boston, Irwin/Mc Graw-Hill.

SUNDERLINE, W. D. & HUYNH, T. B. 2005. Poverty alleviation and forests in Vietnam. Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR).

TAN, T. & TRANG, T. 2013. The Central Highlands lost 206,000 hectares of forests in 8 years [Online]. Vietnam: Tuoi Tre Online. [Accessed 5 April 2013].

TURNER, B. L., VILLARB, S. C., FOSTERC, D., GEOGHEGAND, J., KEYSA, E., KLEPEISE, P., LAWRENCEF, D., MENDOZAB, P. M., MANSONA, S., OGNEVA-HIMMELBERGERA, Y., PLOTKINC, A. B., SALICRUPG, D. P., CHOWDHURYA, R. R., SAVITSKYH, B., SCHNEIDERA, L., SCHMOOKB, B., VANCEI, C. 2001. Deforestation in the southern Yucatán peninsular region: an integrative approach. Forest Ecology and Management, 154, 353-370.

UN-REDD 2010. UN-REDD Vietnam Programme Phase II: Operationalising REDD+ in Vietnam. In: DEVELOPMENT, M. O. A. A. R. (ed.). Vietnam.

UN-REDD 2011a. Legal Preparedness for REDD+ in Vietnam. International Development Law Organization.

UN-REDD 2011b. Vietnam National REDD+ Program: Discussion document. In: DEVELOPMENT, M. O. A. A. R. (ed.). Vietnam: UN-REDD Programme.

VNFOREST 2013. Vietnam Forestry: Introduction to the forests and forest sector of Vietnam. Vietnam: Vietnam Administration of Forestry.

XUAN, D. T., LEWIS, R., LU, J. & MILLS, J. 2010. Population & Natural Resources case study: Is population growth responsible for the loss of rainforests? AAG Center for Global Geography Education.