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Assessing Leadership Potential
© 2015 Civil Service College
Research Report: Assessing Leadership Potential
By Iris Wong
of the Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development November 2015
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Iris Wong is a Researcher in the Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD), Civil Service College, Singapore. In addition to research, Iris is also actively involved in ILOD’s suite of leadership development programmes for Public Service leaders.
ABOUT THE INSTITUTE
The Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD) promotes and supports the development of leadership and organisation development capabilities in the Singapore Public Service. Its research seeks to inform and sharpen practice of effective leadership and organisational intervention in public agencies.
SYNOPSIS The assessment of leadership potential is a topic of much interest and relevance in the Singapore Public
Service, especially with the increasing recognition that the process of identifying of leadership potential can
have an extensive and long-lasting impact on Public Service leadership. Appropriate identification of leadership
potential in the Public Service is thus essential towards surviving and thriving in a changing environment.
This paper integrates and consolidates existing frameworks of leadership potential, and utilises ILOD’s
philosophy of leadership and leadership development to offer a perspective of leadership potential in the
Singapore Public Service.
KEYWORDS POTENTIAL; LEADERSHIP; LEADERSHIP DEVELOPMENT
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Contents
Assessing Leadership Potential.................................................................................................. 4
What is leadership? .................................................................................................................... 5
What is leadership potential? ..................................................................................................... 6
Are there other components of leadership potential? .............................................................. 11
Derailers ................................................................................................................................... 15
Issues related to the identification of leadership potential ....................................................... 16
Conclusion ............................................................................................................................... 22
References ................................................................................................................................ 24
Appendix A .............................................................................................................................. 30
Appendix B .............................................................................................................................. 34
Appendix C .............................................................................................................................. 37
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Assessing Leadership Potential
Every organisation faces a challenge in ensuring a capable workforce to serve their
business strategy and outcomes, in order to retain a competitive advantage in the ever-
changing world today. Talent management is therefore important to organisations so that
they can select, develop, and sustain a leadership pipeline of people who have the proper
capabilities to perform the appropriate roles at the appropriate times. There is an additional
focus beyond allocating resources to improving current performance, and beyond
performance for promotion, towards ensuring and sustaining long term future performance.
To do this, organisations have begun to put in place various processes that help to identify
and develop talent and high potentials (Silzer & Church, 2009). Leadership potential, in
particular, is a construct of much academic and practical interest. There is an increasing
recognition that identifying leadership potential is vital towards the continuing survival of
the organisation (Troth & Gyetvey, 2014). Identifying leadership potential presumably
allows us to make better predictions of future leadership behaviour that has an impact on
the organisation. Although the exact definition of leadership potential can differ from
organisation to organisation (or even from individual to individual), we broadly define
leadership potential as the capacity and interest towards leadership growth,
development, capability, and the ability to make leadership transitions.
It is notable that the concepts of leadership potential and high potential are
overlapping and the literature frequently does not differentiate them clearly. However, this
paper has a special interest in leadership potential. While high potential is about being
effective in various roles at more senior positions in an organization, we believe that
leadership potential should additionally include more components that speak to what
enables the ability to make leadership transitions and what makes good leadership in a
particular context.
This paper therefore aims to consolidate and integrate existing research to gain a
clearer understanding about the construct of leadership potential in the workplace, and in
the Singapore Public Service. We will begin by discussing what leadership means for the
Singapore Public Service. We will then outline existing models of leadership potential.
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Following that, we will attempt to utilise our understanding of leadership, along with the
frameworks of leadership potential, to inform how we view leadership potential. In doing
so, we hope to encourage further contemplation about how we may possibly think about
leadership potential for the Singapore Public Service.
Rothwell (2001) believes that the definition of leadership potential should be
different for each unique organisation. Karaevli & Hall (2003) similarly state that each
distinct definition of leadership potential should be aligned with the organisation’s business
context, and that their people are also aligned in their understanding and practice. Likewise,
we believe our mental model of leadership potential must be informed by our philosophy of
leadership within the Singapore Public Service. Hence, before we can explore what
constitutes leadership potential, we must understand what leadership means to us and
define what we mean by ‘leadership’.
What is leadership?
In the globalised world today where the environment is volatile and issues are
increasingly complex, it is difficult for a single individual or group to possess the immense
knowledge that is necessary to support an organisation. An adaptive, dynamic, and
interactive form of leadership is needed to enable organisations to be resilient and
responsive to rapid changes.
The Singapore Public Service similarly faces complex challenges that span across
boundaries. The future of Singapore and her Public Service is also unpredictable and
uncertain, and there is an increasingly diverse public, and increasing public expectations.
Therefore, while the Singapore Public Service is structured under a firm hierarchy and
bureaucracy, it also needs to be able to adapt according to the swiftly changing times, and
her leadership plays a significant role in enabling this. Given the nature of Public Service, its
connectedness with the machinery of nation-building, and its regulation of societal issues, a
failure to adapt will have wide-spread ramifications. It is thus crucial that the nature of
Public Service leadership and its impact is constantly and heavily considered and discussed.
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According to ILOD’s philosophy of leadership (Goh, 2012), leadership is a relational
and dynamic process of influence and interaction between leader(s) and followers who do
leadership together. This expands beyond positional leaders to include non-positional
leaders, where leadership is not necessarily inherent in an individual and what he/she does,
but within the process of interaction between people (Lichtenstein et al., 2006). This also
means that leadership and followership is interchangeable. Furthermore, leadership is a
facilitative process of enabling direction, alignment and commitment by leaders who
provide meaning, structure, and value people and their ideas. This process must also be
based on a moral ground, whereby it has to emerge from an intention for good, and an
attitude for service towards others. The ultimate result should be positive transformation.
ILOD’s view of leadership development follows from how we define leadership.
Leadership includes (but is not restricted to) the ability to enhance one’s capacity for
continuous personal leadership development by seeking developmental opportunities and
learning from experiences by engaging in the reflective process. It includes the ability to
coach and facilitate others’ learning by believing in a coaching/developmental mindset.
Leadership is also the capacity to activate a moral consciousness of the morality of
leadership and to view leadership through an ethical lens.1 Leadership potential takes into
account an individual’s capacity for leadership development and hence is the capacity to
build one’s leadership in these ways.
What is leadership potential?
Organisations and researchers across the world in different sectors and industries
believe that identifying leadership potential is a top priority, yet struggle to define and
recognise it (Buckingham & Vosburgh, 2001; Fulmer & Bleak, 2008). Studies have found
wide variations in how people define leadership in the first place (i.e. their implicit
leadership theories), depending on their context and demographics such as culture (Xiao &
1 Refer to “Essence of Leadership” at https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/pages/essence-of-leadership.aspx, a
position paper by Goh Han Teck, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD), Civil Service College. This paper expresses what ILOD believes leadership is and should be in today’s context. It also discusses more factors that leadership development should entail.
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Wu, 2014; Ayman & Korabik, 2010; House, Javidan, Hanges & Dorfman, 2002;), gender (Deal
& Stevenson 1998; Ayman & Korabik, 2010), personality (Keller, 2000), self-concept
(Ehrhart, 2015), or other individual differences such as attachment styles (Keller, 2003) This
would unmistakably result in differing definitions of what constitutes leadership potential,
even within a single organisation.
As evident in Charan, Drotter and Noel’s (2001) six leadership passages2 model,
leadership requirements such as skills, values and job functions change across each
transition to the next level of leadership. Apart from the specific skills and values needed at
every milestone, navigating such leadership transitions necessitates certain universal
abilities that will facilitate an individual’s exit and entry to a new role. These abilities are
likely to be meta-abilities that underlie and support the acquisition of other specific skills
and abilities. Studies of the construct of leadership potential should have an interest in
these general, universal meta-abilities.
There is an expanding body of empirical work in defining and identifying leadership
potential (e.g. Bhatnagar 2007; Dries & Pepermans, 2012; Hirschfield & Thomas, 2011; Silzer
& Church, 2009). Some of these arose through academic research (e.g. Church, 2006;
Sprietzer, McCall & Mahoney, 1997; Dries & Pepermans, 2012), and others emerged from
consultancies’ in-house practice research (e.g. Hogan, 2009; Hay, 2008; Korn Ferry, 2015)3.
However, all models of leadership potential unanimously agree that leadership potential is
not one single factor, and the assessment of leadership potential must be
multidimensional. A sample of models of leadership potential can be found in Appendix A.
Appendix B contains more detailed information and illustrations of some models that are of
particular interest to us.
2 Refer to “The leadership pipeline: How to build the leadership powered company” by Charan, Drotter and Noel (2001) for
more information on specific skills, values, job requirements needed for transitions. 3 When looking up frameworks of leadership potential, it would be useful to keep their purposes and origins in mind.
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The various models of leadership potential tend to agree on a number of broad qualities
that are often categorised differently:
Cognitive ability
Drive and motivation
Learning potential
Interpersonal intelligence
1. Cognitive Ability
This is the raw cognitive ability and intelligence that we possess, such as the capacity
for conceptual, abstract, strategic, and analytical reasoning. This translates to problem-
solving and decision-making abilities. It also includes the important element of navigating
complexity and dealing comfortably with ambiguity, which is a vital capability needed to be
effective in the volatile world today (Silzer & Church, 2009; Troth & Gyetvey, 2014).
Leadership involves being able to solve complex issues related to organisational
effectiveness, and intelligence or mental ability has been found time and again to be
associated with general performance, leadership performance, and potential (e.g. Silzer &
Church, 2009; Schmidt & Hunter, 2004; Ones, Dilchert, Viswesvaran & Salgado, 2010). In the
various models of leadership potential, general mental ability and its derived abilities are
almost unanimously agreed upon as a crucial factor in determining leadership potential.
2. Drive and Motivation
Drive and motivation refers to the motivation to serve and the drive towards
leadership influence. Existing models of leadership potential include factors such as
perseverance, dedication, aspiration, ambition, commitment, and results-orientation,
among others. It should be noted that the motivation to serve and the drive towards
leadership influence can be distinct, or overlapping, depending on whether the intentions
behind them are primarily self-serving or other-serving. For instance, individuals could be
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motivated to lead and serve4 when they pursue leadership influence because they believe in
the service value of leadership work, which is the opportunity to have a positive impact on
others, and to make a positive difference (Korn Ferry, 2015). On the other hand, leadership
ambition can exist for various personal reasons without a motivation to serve others.
Leadership drive includes leadership aspirations, self-promotion, self-development,
motivation to lead, and ambition. This motivation to lead is associated with leadership
potential (Waldman, Galvin & Walumba, 2013). It is vital because leadership potential
requires a particular orientation and preference towards having leadership influence, and it
is broadly agreed that it would not be wise to place an individual into a leadership role
against his or her preferences. Other-centric service factors and motivations may include
organisational commitment, dedication, stakeholder-orientation, and organisational
citizenship behaviour. Some authors make a distinction between leadership drive and the
motivation towards service (Dries & Pepermans, 2012) and other authors combine it (Silzer
& Church, 2009; Troth & Gyetvey, 2014). We believe this distinction is important and will
expand upon it in the following sections.
3. Learning Potential
As the world becomes more dynamic and the future harder to foresee, it becomes
more challenging to predict competencies that each leadership level requires. It is also
unreasonable to expect a junior level staff to exhibit the same sort of competencies that
those in advanced leadership positions do. However, many of these leadership skills can be
learned through experience and either formal or informal training. Thus, it can be argued
that the ability of people to learn and adapt becomes increasingly important (Yost &
Plunkett, 2010). Moreover, Lombardo and Eichinger (2000) effectively state that learning
agility is what characterises high potentials, such as being able to simultaneously hold
multiple perspectives while maintaining one’s own view, and then shifting between them.
4 Refer to “Servant Leadership” by Greenleaf (1977) for an insight into the notion of a leader who is motivated
to ensure that others’ needs are served first.
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Learning oriented-skills are the self-regulation strategies which Yost and Plunkett
(2010) define as the “ability to capture lessons of experience and apply them to future
challenges”. Although having leadership experiences is important, it does not automatically
guarantee that learning occurs. Having the ability to mindfully engage in and reflect on the
experience, for instance, aids in an individual’s learning (Khoo, 2015). Many authors also
deem these strategies “meta-capabilities/skills/abilities” (e.g. Derry & Murphy, 1986; Yost &
Plunkett, 2010; Sternberg, 1998) that determine how “developable” an individual is. It
includes metacognition, which is the ability to be aware of and monitor one’s own learning
processes (Peters, 2000), such as the ability of an individual to engage in double-loop
learning (Argyris, 1991), a reflective practice in which they learn (and flex) how they learn.
An ability to learn is useful but insufficient, and this category also includes the
motivation towards learning. Egon Zehnder’s research suggested that the motivation to
learn is a major indicator of potential (Pande, 2015) and labelled it “curiosity”, which they
defined as “the penchant for seeking out new experiences, ideas and knowledge; seeking
feedback and learning new things in order to change” (Blais, 2013). Lombardo and Eichinger
(2000) similarly describe this as seeking out learning experiences, appreciating the
associated complex challenges, and sense-making from those experiences to expand one’s
behavioural repertoire. Silzer and Church (2009) label it as an “interest for learning” and
“learning orientation”, which are both sub-dimensions under their leadership potential
framework of learning variables.
4. Interpersonal intelligence
Interpersonal intelligence is a distinct category that frequently emerges in models of
leadership potential. This is understandable as leadership roles cannot be exempt from the
relational aspect of work. Leadership cannot exist without people, and cannot exist without
followership. Essentially, people bring legitimacy to leadership. Leadership is thus a process
of influence, and interpersonal intelligence fundamentally provides the emotional
intelligence and the capacity to empathise with others’ motivations, intentions and desires
(Gardner, 1999), as well as the interpersonal skills involved in influencing, persuading,
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inspiring, managing, and empowering others. Apart from staff and colleagues, these
interpersonal skills also extend to stakeholder and customer sensitivity.
Most models of leadership potential propose factors associated with leadership
potential that can be broadly classified or subsumed under these categories. The next
section will discuss some factors that are less emphasised in the leadership potential
literature, yet we believe to be just as important because they are aligned with how we
think about leadership.
Are there other components of leadership potential?
Based on our conception of leadership, we believe that the discussion of leadership
potential in the Public Service might benefit with an emphasis on a few more factors. Some
common themes that emerge from our leadership and leadership development philosophy
are the importance of:
Intrapersonal intelligence
Developmental orientation
Values
1. Intrapersonal Intelligence
Interpersonal and intrapersonal intelligence is often combined under the term
“emotional intelligence”, defined by Salovey and Mayer (1990) as “the ability to monitor
one’s own and others’ feelings and emotions, to discriminate among them, and to use this
information to guide one’s thinking and action”, even during stressful and ambiguous
circumstances (Wong & Law, 2002). It is this emotional and social intelligence that enables
one to learn and nurture emotional competencies that facilitate leadership effectiveness
(Goleman, 1995). However, while frameworks of leadership potential usually include
constructs related to interpersonal intelligence (as shown previously), they tend to under-
represent the importance of intrapersonal intelligence or exclude it altogether.
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Gardner (1999) defines intrapersonal intelligence as “the recognition and
understanding of one's own emotions and desires” and the “ability to use the information in
productively regulating one's life.” In the perspective of leadership potential, this is an
individual’s existing self-awareness (Bebb, 2009), as well as the desire, capacity and ability
to increase self-awareness. It is the awareness of one’s own strengths, weaknesses and
aspirations, a mindfulness towards self-regulation (Langer, 1992), the ability for active and
continual reflection, and the desire for feedback.
Self-awareness is a fundamental quality that underlies our notion of what leadership
should be. It feeds into the capacity for personal leadership development, enables the
expansion of one’s repertoire in using influential power and enacting leadership, helps in
coaching capabilities, and is central towards cultivating mindfulness in the practice of
leadership (Goh, 2012). While self-awareness can be developed to a certain extent, the
measurement of one’s leadership potential would also benefit from a consideration of their
inherent capacity and openness towards the enhancement of their self-awareness and
intrapersonal intelligence.
2. Developmental Orientation
A quality that deserves attention is the developmental mindset and orientation5
towards oneself and others. This involves having firm beliefs that professional and personal
development is important, and that time and effort would be well-spent in pursuing it. The
individual with a developmental orientation inherently adopts a “growth mindset”, believing
that people’s abilities are not immutable and that they can grow over time (Blackwell,
Trzesniewski, & Dweck, 2007; Dweck, 1999; Dweck, 2007). This is the belief that these
abilities are essentially potentials that emerge with effort, practice and direction (Dweck,
2009).
5 Refer to “Nurturing a Developmental Culture” at https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/pages/nurturing-a-
developmental-culture.aspx by Iris Wong and Goh Phek Suan, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD), Civil Service College. The section on Guiding Principles of a Developmental Culture provides more information on what could enable a developmental mindset and orientation.
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Existing frameworks of leadership potential do sometimes include leadership skills
that involve development, such as coaching, motivating, and empowering others (e.g. Silzer
& Church, 2009; Hezlett, Ronnkvist, Holt & Hazucha, 1997). However, it should be noted
that a developmental orientation goes beyond having the skills, interpersonal intelligence,
and intrapersonal intelligence to develop oneself and others. It also includes the drive to
develop oneself and others, and the belief that it is important to do so.
To have a developmental mindset for oneself is to believe that one is developable
and ready to be developed6. This can show up as perseverance, a “never-say-die” attitude,
experimentation, and a welcoming of challenges and feedback. Additionally, according to
interviews from a qualitative study by ILOD and researchers at the University of Michigan
(Myers & DeRue, 2012), Singapore Public Service officers who are developmentally ready
have an open, learning-oriented and reflective attitude, and intentionally create time,
space, and energy to learn from developmental experiences. This comes about because they
believe in the importance of self-improvement, that they can improve, that the time and
resources spent are worth it, and they are motivated to grab opportunities that allow them
to develop themselves.
Since leadership potential includes the capacity and interest for self-improvement
towards future leadership growth, a developmental mindset (and developmental readiness
7) towards oneself is a crucial factor that should be considered when assessing someone for
leadership potential.
Furthermore, in Singapore’s Public Service today, leadership that develops, engages
and enables others is also becoming increasingly important, such as the ability to coach and
facilitate learning in others (Goh & Goh, 2011; Goh, 2012). This can emerge as a concern for
the welfare of others, as well as the intentional practice of coaching, mentoring,
empowering others, and facilitating others’ development. Similar to the creation of
6 Refer to “Understanding Developmental Readiness” at https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/pages/understanding-
developmental-readiness.aspx by Chia Nah Nah and Khoo Ee Wan, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD), Civil Service College. 7 Developmental readiness broadly refers to developability and how much someone is ready to develop themselves. It is a
combination of many variables, including cognitive abilities (such as those listed earlier) and meta-cognitive abilities (such as those that determine learning potential), beliefs and attitudes (such as a growth mindset), motivational factors, personality-related factors, and self-constructs.
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bandwidth for oneself to develop, a developmental mindset means believing in the
importance of others’ development, and facilitating the creation of bandwidth for them to
learn from developmental experiences.
First and foremost, having an overall developmental mindset is vital to facilitate
one’s own leadership growth. Secondly, a developmental mindset also allows one to
facilitate the growth of others, which is becoming increasingly essential in today’s
leadership context. A core responsibility of leadership, then, is to facilitate the development
of oneself and of others, so a developmental mindset just might be an important factor to
consider in identifying potential for leadership.
3. Values
One facet of our view of leadership that must be emphasised is the values behind
the practice of leadership. As discussed earlier, frameworks of leadership potential take into
account the drive and motivation towards leadership. However, they often do not clarify the
intentions and motivations behind it. We believe that leadership and a drive for leadership
should ideally stem from a moral ground, so this is fundamentally a question about values
and motivations. This suggests that just having a drive towards leadership is insufficient in
the identification of leadership potential because such a drive could very well be self-
serving, and having a self-serving leader will be harmful to the organisation in the longer
term.
The values associated with stewardship8 are relevant here. Stewardship is essentially
linked to a moral orientation for the welfare of others, and refers to a leadership drive and
motivation that is society-centred, since the role of leaders are to work in service of the
people in the organisation, as well as to sustainably drive the organisation forward in the
longer term. Paying attention to the right values, attitudes, and mindsets certainly seems
8 Refer to “Stewardship in the context of public sector leadership” at
https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/pages/stewardship-in-the-context-of-public-sector-leadership.aspx by Khoo Ee Wan, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development (ILOD), Civil Service College. This paper explores the concept of stewardship and its applications in the Singapore Public Service.
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important, considering the detriment that could occur upon misjudgement. In fact, in their
model of potential, Egon Zehnder’s research states that the very first indicator of potential
is “motivation”, which they define as a “fierce commitment to excel in the pursuit of
unselfish goals” (Fernández-Aráoz, 2014). Clearly, having the right values is significant,
particularly since it is difficult to impart or change a person’s values. The identification of
leadership potential should therefore include a consideration of one’s values, whether they
are aligned with the values that the organisation believes in, and whether they are values
associated with stewardship.
Derailers
Models of leadership potential typically include positive qualities that are sought after.
However, it is also important to consider dysfunctional attributes that could eventually
result in leadership failure. Leadership potential is effectively limited by the presence of
derailers9. Some derailers are unfortunate traits or idiosyncracies that people possess but
are unable to manage. Other derailers could be traits that may have propelled individuals
towards leadership positions in the first place but have become excessive. For example, a
large part of leadership performance is the drive towards achieving results. This is
undeniably beneficial, but an over-emphasis on results could bring about increasing
amounts of pressure on themselves and others to succeed, which eventually leads to
exhaustion and disengagement on both sides.
Derailment risks are a signpost of Korn Ferry’s (2015) model of leadership potential,
which they have separated into three sub-dimensions of risk: 1) Volatile – Being mercurial,
erratic or unpredictable, 2) Micromanaging – Controlling the work of direct reports, and 3)
Closed – Lack of openness to alternative perspectives and opportunities. Other researchers
9 Refer to “Understanding Managerial Derailment” at
https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/ethos/issue%209%20jun%202011/pages/understanding-managerial-derailment.aspx by Khoo Ee Wan, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development, Civil Service College, for a deeper understanding of the nature of managerial derailment.
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have also identified other “dark side” traits10 that can cause derailment, such as narcissism,
emotional illiteracy, a lack of self-awareness, Machiavellianism, subclinical psychopathy,
mischievousness, and scepticism (Paulhus & William, 2002; Burke, 2006; Hogan & Hogan,
2001; Palmer, 1994). The effects of derailment and leadership failure could include poor
work performance, bad decision-making, employee disengagement, high turnover, and
organisational decline at worst.
In essence, derailers lead to bad leadership, which can result in much damage to the
organisation. Since the tendency towards derailment increases as one progresses through
leadership levels (Korn Ferry, 2015; Tang & Dai, 2013), it is crucial that we consider
derailment risks when discussing the identification and assessment of leadership potential
at any stage. Together with the typical assessments of leadership potential, Korn Ferry
(2015) also recommends a thorough assessment of derailment risks and managing them
before making leadership decisions.
Issues related to the identification of leadership potential
Potential is not Performance
Performance and potential are intuitively related but theoretically distinct concepts.
Performance refers to how effective individuals are in their current or previous role and
position, while leadership potential refers to a projected estimate of how effectively
individuals can make leadership transitions and how effective they will be in future
leadership roles. Performance is basically about the past and present, while potential is
about the future. McKinsey’s Performance-Potential 9-box matrix is a widely-used talent
management tool that arose in the 1970s that illustrates this differentiation by showing how
employees can fall on either end of the performance and potential spectrum (See Appendix
B for a diagram). For instance, a content expert may be high in performance but low in
10
Refer to “the Dark Side of Leadership” at https://www.cscollege.gov.sg/knowledge/pages/the-dark-side-of-leadership.aspx by Aurora de Souza Watters, Institute of Leadership and Organisation Development, Civil Service College for a longer discussion on “dark side” leadership traits and how organisations can support leaders in developing self-awareness and tempering them.
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potential for leadership, while a new hire may be low in performance but judged to be high
in potential for leadership. Furthermore, Qotywa (2014) investigated leadership potential in
the Australian public sector and found that there was no significant relationship between
performance and leadership potential11.
At the moment, researchers and organisations have differing opinions on the use of
performance evaluations to predict leadership potential. Some, like the Singapore Public
Service, incorporate performance and technical measures into their frameworks (e.g. Silzer
& Church, 2009; Corporate Leadership Council, 2005), while others do not (e.g. Lombardo &
Eichinger, 2000; Hezlett, Ronnkvist, Holt, & Hazucha, 1997). Some explicitly state that they
have intentionally steered clear of performance assessments for a number of reasons (Dries
& Pepermans, 2012).
In practice, the identification of leadership potential often involves some measure of
performance, and many organisations believe that performance is an important factor to
consider when making decisions about future leadership roles (Troth & Gyetvey, 2014; Silzer
& Church, 2009; Robinson, Fetters, Riester & Bracco, 2009). Silzer and Church (2009) state
that identifying and managing leadership potential should originate and extend from
developing current performance towards future positions, and extrapolate into sustained
future development. Their model of potential thus includes performance, technical, and
functional skills. Furthermore, although high performance is not indicative of leadership
potential, high leadership potential is what enables high performance in a leadership
position. Having high performance also helps by bringing attention to the existence of
leadership potential (Khoo, 2011). Along these lines, performance and potential seem very
much related.
A problem arises, however, when organisations and their employees are unclear
about the distinction between assessments of performance and potential12 (E.g. Rogers &
11
This study utilised Dries and Pepermans’ (2012) model of leadership potential. The model intentionally excludes measures of performance. 12
Dries and Pepermans (2012) developed a broadly accepted of leadership potential that addresses many inherent issues
with existing models. Their model focuses on leadership potential at any level, in opposition to pegging against successful
and mature leadership. It also makes a clear distinction between leadership potential and current performance.
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Smith, 2007; Hewitt Associates, 2008) and assume that high performance results in high
potential for future roles (Silzer & Church, 2009). Church and Waclawski (2010) called this
tendency the “performance-potential paradox”, which occurs when performance and
potential are tied too closely together and when there is a lack of clarity regarding the
difference between them. Some organisations even promote individuals to higher positions
with different job roles mainly based on their performance (Dries & Pepermans, 2012).
Although the individual could be a good performer in their previous role, such a move
results in their derailment or inability to perform effectively, because the requirements and
responsibilities of the new role are different. Furthermore, a dip in performance is often not
visible for a length of time. Similarly, stellar leadership performance in a current leadership
role does not guarantee a high leadership potential for the same reasons.
Other criticisms of the use of performance evaluations for leadership potential
assessments include the increased possibility of a halo (or horns) effect bias, which occurs
when a supervisor’s good (or bad) impression of their employee’s performance influences
their judgment on his or her other characteristics, such as leadership potential (Dries &
Pepermans, 2012; Konczak & Foster, 2009; Heidemeier & Moser 2009). Greer and Vrick
(2008) also argue against attributing too much value to performance evaluations as they
typically assess technical competency and expertise. These become less important as one
climbs the ladder of leadership, and a different set of strategic and managerial skills become
more important. For instance, a person may be promoted based on their good operational
capabilities. However, at higher levels of leadership, operational capabilities no longer
differentiate good and poor performers simply because they are no longer considered to be
a requirement of the new role. Operational performance, then, is a factor of performance at
lower levels, but not of leadership potential.
Furthermore, Dries and Pepermans (2012) state that organisations tend to rely on
performance reviews and specific competency models in identifying leadership potential.
They caution against using competency frameworks that are founded on successful cases of
leadership, because the frameworks are based on the assumption that leadership potential
and matured leadership are equivalent (McCall, 1998). The inherent issue with this is that
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using matured leadership as a base refers to a sensing from experienced leaders about what
is required in their leadership positions currently, while leadership potential involves
identifying junior employees to perform in those leadership positions in the future. When
the competencies needed for these are assumed to be equivalent, the first concern is that
there is no clear distinction between what is expected of a junior and senior employee.
However, we intuitively know that it is not realistic to place similar expectations on them.
The second problem is that the environment is volatile and uncertain, and the mature
leadership competencies that are successful or required today will inevitably change over
time (McCall, 1998; Goh & Hennessy, 2011). Equating current competencies with leadership
potential thus means that people identified to have leadership potential today may not
actually have the leadership potential and competencies suitable for the future. This could
lead to 1) wasted organisational efforts at identification of leadership potential and
development of the leadership pipeline, or 2) people residing in leadership positions with
competencies that are not aligned with current needs, which could result in businesses that
stagnate and become more unsustainable as the world progresses. Thus, we believe it may
be more meaningful to seek capacities that could generally facilitate an individual’s
progress, rather than have a constantly-revised laundry list of selection criteria or specific
competencies. For instance, Egon Zehnder’s research acknowledged that competency-based
assessments and promotions are inadequate for today’s VUCA (volatile, uncertain, complex
and ambiguous) world, and suggest assessing for higher-order qualities such as curiosity,
engagement, insight and determination (Fernández-Aráoz, 2014).
While it is up to an organisation to determine if an individual’s past performance is
essential in determining their leadership potential, it is important to be clear about the
difference between them. Managers themselves, who determine employees’ potential,
should also be clear that there is a difference between them, so that they may minimise
their biases in misattributing leadership potential. It is also important to ensure that
leadership potential is defined in ways that do not penalise employees simply due to their
lack of experience, and that we measure the potential to assume leadership positions in
future, rather than the capability to perform in those future positions based on how they
are performed currently. Using the current competencies of mature leaders as a baseline for
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identifying leadership potential in junior employees is therefore inappropriate. The
literature universally indicates that there is much more to leadership potential than current
performance, and identifying and developing individuals simply using current performance
as the main predictor is inadvisable (Miller & Desmarais, 2007). Doing so will have far-
reaching implications on the organisation as a whole.
Assessment of Potential is an Interactive Task
Domnick and Gabriel (2009) raised an interesting perspective on the identification of
potential. They observed that the identification of potential involves multiple interactions
between multiple parties. Potential does not simply reside in an individual, but those who
seek to identify potential in others have influenced the process by their capacity to
perceive potential. In other words, the labelling of an individual’s potential is shaped by the
environment around them. This implies that the labelling of potential is not fixed. Although
some traits such as cognitive ability do remain relatively stable over time, the mindsets or
implicit leadership theories held by managers can affect the perception of their employees’
potential. For instance, managers’ self-awareness could influence their capacity to recognise
potential in their employees when they are better able to understand and regulate their
performance-based biases (Dominick & Gabriel, 2009) as well as beyond their implicit
leadership theories. Managers’ ‘fixed’ or ‘growth’ mindsets can also play a part in their
assessment of potential in their employees (Dweck, 2006). Managers with a ‘growth’
mindset are more likely to believe that their employees’ potential is changeable, while
managers with a ‘fixed’ mindset would tend to believe that potential stays constant over
time.
While we have earlier established that potential can change across time and context,
the self-fulfilling prophecy effect also comes into play, where the labelling of someone’s
potential can influence their actual potential. This implies that managers who are less able
to regulate their biases, or have ‘fixed’ mindsets, are likely to mislabel their employees’
potential, which will have unintended effects in the long run.
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In sum, the identification of leadership potential is an interactive and dynamic
endeavour. Hence, in addition to looking at an individual’s potential, and the components of
potential, we should also be paying attention to those who identify potential in others.
This may have implications on selection and assessment processes, such as the way
assessors are trained and the way selection procedures are designed and executed.
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Conclusion
The issue of identifying leadership potential is a topic of much interest and debate, given
the extensive real-world implications for organisations worldwide. This paper has sought to
explore and consolidate various conceptualisations of the construct of leadership potential
in the workplace, and also suggests additional components that are worth considering in the
identification of leadership potential.
Based on the integration of various frameworks of leadership potential , we have found
four common factors that seem to cut across the literature and need to be given due
consideration when thinking about leadership potential: cognitive ability, drive and
motivation, learning potential, and interpersonal intelligence. Furthermore, based on our
view of leadership in the Singapore Public Service, we have identified three more factors
that we believe are important to emphasise: intrapersonal intelligence, developmental
orientation, and values. Other than positive indicators of leadership potential, we have also
highlighted the need to consider derailers – negative factors that could undermine
potential. Lastly, we have discussed various issues surrounding the lack of clarity in
distinguishing between performance and potential, as well as introduced the perspective of
the identifier of leadership potential as some food for thought.
Additionally, we could benefit from seeking answers to a number of questions that
remain. Dries and Pepermans (2012) raised the question: How do we know which qualities
are predispositional, and which qualities are more developable over time? This would affect
how much emphasis we place on identifying various qualities in leadership potential. By
association, how do we know which qualities are more important than others? Some
authors have an opinion but most do not13. Moreover, if leadership potential can change
across time and across functions, when can it be assessed14? Finally, how far can an
assessment of leadership potential predict actual leadership performance? Perhaps further
13
Based on their framework, Silzer and Church (2009) ranked emergent leadership as most important, followed by drive, learning agility, and analytical skills. 14
Based on their framework, Egon Zehnder believes that the primary indicator of potential is someone’s “motives” (Fernández-Aráoz, 2014). Hence they believe that potential can be assessed anytime, even from the beginning, since “motives” are established early in a person’s lifetime.
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empirical research could be done to explore some of these issues, particularly within a
distinctive context such as the Singapore Public Service.
Note:
This paper serves to stimulate thought and provides some direction about various aspects to
consider when thinking about potential. It does not intend to recommend or espouse any
existing measure of leadership potential. Many frameworks of leadership potential exist
(See appendix A for a sample), and some even come complete with recommendations of
measurement scales for each individual facet (e.g. Dries & Pepermans, 2012). However, it is
not advisable to adopt any measure wholesale. The organisation first has to thoroughly
consider and define its theory of leadership and leadership potential to suit its specific
context and environment.
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Appendix A
Frameworks of Leadership Potential (In chronological order)
Korn Ferry (2015) Egon Zehnder: Fernández-Aráoz (2014) Dries & Pepermans (2012)
Drivers - Advancement drive - Career planning - Role preferences
Experience - Core experience - Perspective - Key challenges
Awareness - Self-awareness - Situational self-awareness
Learning agility - Mental agility - People agility - Change agility - Results agility
Leadership traits - Focus - Persistence - Tolerance of ambiguity - Assertiveness - Optimism
Capacity - Problem solving
Derailment risks - Volatile - Micromanaging - Closed
Motivation - Being energized and engaged on an emotional
level with the work of leadership. Curiosity
- Seeking out new experiences, ideas and knowledge
- Seeking feedback and learning new things in order to change.
Insight - Proactively gathering and making sense of a
vast amount of information from a wide range of sources, and discovering new insights that, when applied, transform views or set new directions.
Engagement - Deeply engaging others, - Communicating a persuasive vision and
inspiring genuine emotional connection between individuals, the organization and the leader.
Determination - Managing and maintaining long term, sustained
effort and focus despite obstacles and distractions, while not ignoring evidence that the nature of the activity should change.
Analytical skills - Intellectual curiosity - Strategic insight - Decision making - Problem solving
Learning agility - Willingness to learn - Emotional intelligence - Adaptability
Drive - Results orientation - Perseverance - Dedication
Emergent leadership - Motivation to lead - Self-promotion - Stakeholder sensitivity
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Silzer & Church (2009) Hogan Assessment Systems (2009) Hay Group (2008)
Cognitive abilities - Conceptual or strategic thinking, breadth of
thinking - Intellect, cognitive ability - Dealing with complexity/ambiguity
Personality variables - Interpersonal skills, sociability - Dominance - Maturity, stability, resilience
Learning variables - Adaptability, flexibility - Learning orientation, interest in learning - Learning agility - Openness to feedback
Leadership skills - Leadership capabilities, managing and
empowering people - Developing others - Influencing, inspiring, challenging the status
quo, change management Motivation variables
- Drive, energy, engagement, tenacity - Aspiration, drive for advancement, ambition,
career drive, organisational commitment, interests
- Results orientation, risk-taking Performance record
- Performance track record - Leadership experiences
Other variables - Technical/functional skills, business
knowledge - Qualifiers - Cultural fit
Business domain - Strategic reasoning - Tactical problem solving - Operational excellence
Leadership domain - Results orientation - Talent development
Interpersonal domain – relationships - Respect for people - Collaboration
Interpersonal domain - work challenges - Strategic self-awareness - Tenacity - Judgment
Eagerness to learn - Willingness to take risk to learn something
new - Curiosity
Breadth of Perspective - Thinking beyond boundaries, take broad view - Conceptual ability, raw computing power or
IQ Understanding others
- Capacity to accurately understand other’s perspective and experiences
- Motivation and ability to listen Personal Maturity
- Ability to experience feedback as chance to learn and grow
- Maintain emotional balance, resilience & realistic optimism
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YSC (UK): Rowe (2007) Development Dimensions: Rogers & Smith (2007)
Corporate Leadership Council (2005)
Intellect / judgment - Style of thinking - Analytical rigor, balanced approach to
decision making, successfully spotting key issues
Individuality - Drive to make a distinct impact, relentless
almost obsessive quality - Initiative - Self-assurance to enable them to operate
with optimism about their ability to overcome problems
- Aspiration Shaping the environment
- Influencing - Adapt to situations
Leadership Promise - Propensity to lead - Brings out best in people - Authenticity
Personal Development Orientation - Receptivity to feedback - Learning agility
Mastery of Complexity - Adaptability - Conceptual thinking - Navigates ambiguity
Balance of Values and Results - Culture fit - Passion for results
Ability - A combination of innate characteristics
(mental/cognitive agility and emotional intelligence), and learned skills (technical/functional skills and interpersonal skills) that an employee uses to carry out his/her day to day work.
Engagement - Consists of four elements: emotional
commitment, rational commitment, discretionary effort, and intent to stay.
Aspiration - The extent to which an employee wants or
desires prestige and recognition in the organization, advancement and influence, financial rewards, work-life balance, and overall job enjoyment.
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Lombardo & Eichinger (2000) Spreitzer, McCall & Mahoney (1997)
Hezlett, Ronnkvist, Holt & Hazucha (1997)
Hogan, Curphy, & Hogan (1994)
People agility - Know themselves well - Learn from experience - Treat others constructively - Cool and resilient under
pressures of change Results agility
- Get results under tough conditions
- Inspire others to perform beyond normal
- Exhibit the sort of presence that builds confidence in others
Mental agility - Think through problems
from a fresh point of view - Comfortable with
complexity - Comfortable with ambiguity - Comfortable with explaining
their thinking to others Change agility
- Curious - Have passion for ideas - Like to experiment with test
cases - Engage in skill building
activities
End-state competencies - Has broad business
knowledge - Is sensitive to cultural
differences - Has the courage to
take a stand - Brings out the best in
people - Acts with integrity - Is insightful - Is committed to
success - Takes risks
Learning-oriented competencies
- Seeks feedback - Uses feedback - Is cross-culturally
adventurous - Seeks opportunities
to learn - Is open to criticism - Is flexible
Thought leadership - Analyse issues - Champion change - Establish plans - Know the business - Manage execution - Provide direction - Use sound judgment - Use technical/functional
expertise Results leadership
- Drive for results - Lead courageously - Show work commitment
People leadership - Build relationships - Coach and develop - Display organizational savvy - Foster open communication - Foster teamwork - Influence others - Listen to others - Manage disagreements - Motivate others - Speak effectively
Self-leadership - Act with integrity - Demonstrate adaptability - Develop oneself
Surgency - Sociability - Gregariousness - Assertiveness - Dominance - Capacity for status - Social presence - Need for power
Emotional intelligence - Calmness - Steadiness - Coolness - Self-confidence - Positive affect
Conscientiousness - Hard work - Perseverance - Organization - Responsibility - Ambition - Need for achievement - Dependability
Agreeableness - Cooperativeness - Likeability - Friendly compliance - Need for affiliation
Intellectance - Imaginativeness - Broad-mindedness - Curiosity - Culture - Openness to experience
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Appendix B
Dries and Pepermans (2012) developed a broadly accepted framework of leadership potential that addresses many inherent issues with existing
models. Their model focuses on leadership potential in opposition to successful and mature leadership. It also makes a clear distinction between leadership
potential and current performance. The model, illustrated in the diagram below, consists of two dimensions: 1) Conation vs. Cognition (Heart vs. Head),
where conation refers to drive, motivation and action, while cognition refers to analytical skills. 2) Extrapersonal vs. Intrapersonal (Context vs. Self), where
extrapersonal refers to interactions between an individual and the external environment, while intrapersonal refers to one’s inner life. Their notion of the
extrapersonal-conation (context-heart) in the form of emergent leadership is of particular interest to us and our view of leadership, whereby emergent
leadership is the capacity to be influential, and emerges not from position or authority but by the legitimacy granted to them by their followers.
Figure 1. Dries and Pepermans (2012) Two-Dimensional Model of Factors of Leadership Potential
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The Korn Ferry Assessment of Leadership Potential (KFALP) was developed based on extensive research and review of academic and business literature. It is characterised by seven signposts of potential, organised into four dimensions of leadership and talent. Interestingly, it considers factors that are uncommonly found in the literature, such as derailment risks and self-awareness. Under the dimension of experiences, it also considers core experiences, diversity of perspectives gained from experience, and experience with key challenges.
More information on the KFALP can be found at: http://static.kornferry.com/media/sidebar_downloads/KFALP_Technical_Manual_final.pdf
Figure 2. Egon Zehnder’s Seven Signposts of Potential Figure 3. Egon Zehnder’s Four Dimensions of Leadership and Talent
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Egon Zehnder’s framework of potential emerged from empirical and experiential research that included academic sources, interview data, appraisal data, and other sources of information. Four core leadership traits are considered to be hallmarks of potential: Curiosity, insight, engagement, and determination.
An additional factor, which they consider to be the first indicator of potential, is the appriopriate motivation. They define this as the “fierce commitment to excel in the pursuit of unselfish goals.” This is considered first because motives and values are often unconscious and stable, are formed very early in life, and underlie who people really are. Motivation is of interest as it speaks to the importance of values towards leadership, and when identifying leadership potential.
More information on Egon Zehnder’s model can be found at: http://www.egonzehnder.com/files/look_past_performance_to_see_potential.pdf.
Curiosity: Seeking out new experiences, ideas and knowledge; seeking feedback and learning new things in order to change.
Insight: Proactively gathering and making sense of a vast amount of information from a wide range of sources, and discovering new insights that, when applied, transform views or set new directions.
Engagement: Deeply engaging others, communicating a persuasive vision and inspiring genuine emotional connection between individuals, the organization and the leader.
Determination: Managing and maintaining longterm, sustained effort and focus despite obstacles and distractions, while not ignoring evidence that the nature of the activity should change.
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Appendix C
The GE/McKinsey Performance-Potential 9-box matrix is a performance management tool that arose in the 1970s and was first used by General Electric. It is a tool commonly used in organisations to categorise individuals based on ratings of performance and potential, in order to make talent decisions, such as identifying individuals with high potential, individuals who may benefit from a change in position, and individuals who could be successors for various positions. It distinguishes between potential and performance, whereby high potentials can have poor performance, and vice versa.
Figure 4. GE/McKinsey Performance-Potential 9-box matrix (Viapeople, Inc)
More information about the use of this model can be found at: http://web.viapeople.com/viaPeople-blog/bid/81566/Development-at-the-Top-Use-
the-9-Box-to-Develop-Talent-in-Succession-Planning.
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