research - space tourism in india

SPACE TOURISM IN INDIA

A REPORT OF AN INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH STUDY BY THEUNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM AND ENERGY STUDIES,

DEHRADUN, INDIA

DIRECTED BY PROF. DR. RAM S. JAKHU

CENTRE FOR AVIATION STUDIES

UNIVERSITY OF PETROLEUM & ENERGY STUDIES

DISCLAIMER

The contents of this Study Report neither represent the personal views or opinions of the externaladvisors-reviewers and the Project Director, nor of the organizations with which they are associatedor affiliated. The University of Petroleum andEnergy Studies, Dehra Dun, India, and the membersof the Research Team from this University remain ultimately, individually, jointly and exclusivelyresponsible for the propriety of any material used (or abused, as the case may be) in this Report.

RAM S. JAKHUProject Director

Copyright (c) 2010 by University of Petroleum and Energy Studies, Dehradun, India.

Executive Summary viiPreface/Acknowledgements ixForeword xiResearch Team xiiiList of Tables xvList of Figures xviiDefinitions and Acronyms xix

CHAPTER 1: OVERVIEW 1

1.1 Need for and Significance of this Study1.2 Mission Statement1.3 Scope of the Study1.4 What is Space Tourism?

1.4.1 Space1.4.2 Tourism

CHAPTER 2: MARKET 7

2.1 Methodology of the Survey2.2 Suborbital Demand Forecast Methodology

2.2.1 Estimating the Potential Market forSuborbital Travel in India

2.2.2 Pioneering Reduction2.2.3 Physical Fitness2.2.4 Suborbital Demand Forecast

2.3 Orbital Forecast Methodology2.3.1 Estimating the Potential Market2.3.2 Pioneering Reduction2.3.3 Physical Fitness2.3.4 Conversion to Launches2.3.5 Orbital Forecast

CHAPTER 3: FACILITIES, INFRASTRUCTURE AND HUMAN RESOURCES 17

3.1 Vehicles for Space Tourism3.1.1 Spaceship3.1.2 Rocketplane XP3.1.3 Lynx3.1.4 Astrium3.1.5 Which Vehicle will be the Most

Desirable for Space Tourism in India?

Contents3.2 Spaceports and Ground Infrastructure and

Facilities3.2.1 Present Scenario3.2.2 A Spaceport in India

3.3 Medical Facilities and Training3.3.1 Space Adaptation Syndrome/Space

Sickness3.3.2 Effects of High Gravity Loads on the

Human Body3.3.3 Effects of Microgravity3.3.4 Medical Requirements for Space

Tourists3.3.5 On-Site (Ground) Medical Services

3.4 Specialized Workforce

CHAPTER 4: SAFETY, LIABILITY ANDINSURANCE 27

4.1 Safety Issues Related to Spaceflight4.1.1 Technical Factors Related to Space

Safety4.2 Liability for Death, Injury and Damage

4.2.1 Civil Liability4.2.2 Criminal Liability

4.3 Liability and Insurance4.3.1 Liability Insurance for Spaceflight

Participants under U.S. Law4.3.2 Statutory Waiver Against Liability4.3.3 Protection of Spaceflight Operators

from Liability4.3.4 Insurance for Space Fight

Participants/Operators4.3.5 Space Tourism Insurance Market4.3.6 Space Travel Insurance in India

CHAPTER 5: REGULATORYREQUIREMENTS AND COMPLIANCE 35

5.1. Requirements of the Law5.1.1 International Obligations5.1.2 National5.1.3 Role of National Regulatory Bodies

vi / An Interdisciplinary Study on Space Tourism in India

CHAPTER 6: PRESENT AND FUTURECHALLENGES 41

6.1 Availability of Appropriate Space Vehicles6.2 Lack of Public Interest6.3 The Green Factor6.4 Estimating the Cost of Suborbital Flights

and Financial Planning6.5 Estimating the Cost of Orbital Flights and

Financial Planning6.6 Lack of Entrepreneurial Interest

CHAPTER 7: FINDINGS ANDRECOMMENDATIONS 477.1 Number of Tourists

7.2 Cost7.3 Target Market7.4 Type of Vehicle and Location Planning7.5 Safety, Liability and Insurance7.6 Private Parties Undertaking Space Tourism

Activities7.7 Insurance for Space Travellers7.8 Governments Incentive to Facilitate the

Development of Space Tourism in India

Selected Bibliography 51

End Notes 53

Selected Bibliography / vii

This project, the first of its kind in India, consistsof a Study about the potential, and possibleoperation, of a space tourism industry in India. Ithas been carried out from an interdisciplinaryperspective covering the business, technical, legal andregulatory aspects of this newly emerging industry.This Report is thus a preliminary appraisal of thetechnological, infrastructural, financial, marketing,safety, and legal requirements for the establishmentof a space tourism industry in India. Focusing onthe transportation of tourists to and from space,the Report analyzes the conditions that should beput in place in order to foster and sustain theestablishment and development of this industry inIndia. It commences with an overview of the currentstatus of global space tourism and, as part of it,significant and important terms which lie at thefoundation of the Study are defined and set out.The Report then records and analyzes data obtainedfrom a survey conducted as part of the Study todetermine whether there is a potential market forspace tourism in India. The survey provides the basisfor a number of important forecasts made in theReport. Of particular significance in this regard arethe demand, cost and revenue forecasts for bothsuborbital and orbital space tourism in Indiaextending to the year 2030. It is important to notethat the figures in the Study Report are mere

Executive Summaryforecasts and projections and should not be regardedas accurate estimates. Following the survey, theStudy assesses the facilities, infrastructure and humanresources required for a successful launch of the spacetourism industry in India. The two Chapters thatfollow address safety, liability and insuranceconcerns in connection with space tourism in Indiaon the one hand, and regulatory/complianceconcerns on the other. In this regard, the Reportdescribes the existing challenges under each sub-heading and discusses possible options forovercoming them. Since space tourism is seen as afuturistic concept by a great majority of people, theReport attempts to identify and address both presentand future challenges associated with it. Thus, theReport contains a broad assessment of the feasibilityof space tourism in India from the perspective ofcost, technological development, and the possibilityof growth. The conclusions of the Study aresynthesized into a series of recommendations aimedat instigating policymakers, stakeholders in theaerospace industry as well as the general public inIndia to start thinking critically about the potentialrole of space tourism in generating employment in,and enhancing the global credibility of, India as amajor space-faring and advanced nation.

Can the space tourism industry be viable inIndia? This Study Report attempts to answerthis question by: conducting an analysis of thebusiness potential of space tourism; forecasting theexpected revenue; estimating the investment costsfor developing space tourism; and analyzing itsfinancial implications. The fact that space travel forpurposes of tourism has not been established in Indiais due mostly to the high cost of manned spaceflights(in both monetary and safety terms) and the lack ofversatile space transportation facilities. Once spacetourism becomes safe and affordable to the generalpublic, space tourism activities, especially thoseinvolving manned space programs, will develop andincrease in a manner which may exceed present dayimaginations. In this Report, we have analyzedvarious impediments to the development of the spacetourism industry in India taking economic, legal andpolicy considerations into account.

This Study Report is the result of the cooperativeefforts of several students and faculty members fromthe University of Petroleum and Energy Studies(UPES), Dehra Dun, India, carried out under mydirection and supervision (See the list of TeamMembers). As the Project Director, it has been agreat pleasure to work with them all and I wish toexpress my appreciation to them for their hard workand cooperation. I also wish to express special thanksto: Dr. Parag Diwan for his mentorship andencouragement; to Prof. Dr. K.C. Gandhi for his

Preface/Acknowledgementssuperb coordination of the Research Team at UPESand the collection of materials; to Mr. MukeshPandey for his tireless efforts in putting togetherthe first consolidated draft of the Study Report andsplendid work in revising it; and to Mr. YawNyampong for his outstanding editing of the entireStudy Report.

I particularly acknowledge the immense contributionmade by the external advisors-reviewers, comprisinga hand-picked team of international experts in spacetourism related matters, who helped the ResearchTeam in the execution of the project and carefullyreviewed the draft Study Report. A caveat must besounded at this juncture. In spite of the variouscontributions made by the external advisors-reviewers and myself towards the completion of thisStudy Report, it should be noted that the UPESand the members of the UPES Research Teamremain ultimately responsible for the propriety ofany material used (or abused, as the case may be) inthis Report.

The contents of this Study Report were developedwith the intention of initiating discussion and furtherelaborated analytical studies of each of the subjectsdealt with herein. They do not represent the personalviews or opinions of the external advisors-reviewersand myself. Neither do they represent the views ofthe organizations with which they are individuallyassociated or affiliated.

RAM S. JAKHUProject Director

10 July 2010

Space tourism is a fledgling industry, born out ofnecessity, yet driven by the same curiosity andambition that took humanity to the Moon; it appearsto be here to stay.

http://www.space.com/spacetourism/

Countries like the U.S., Russia and Japan havealready started work aimed at establishinghabitats on the planet Mars by the year 2030, andare devising various transportation systems in orderto reach Mars. Private companies from thesecountries are vying to become leaders in the globalspace tourism industry. Virgin Galactic for instancehas already made its maiden attempt by successfullydeploying SpaceShipOne. A few wealthy individualshave flown into outer space as space tourists.

Having missed the opportunities presented by thefirst industrial revolution, India continues to remaina developing country. The next industrial revolutionseems to be taking root now as developed countriesrace towards the Moon and Mars. India has theopportunity now to join this exclusive club of nationsto possibly establish colonies and eventuallyindustries on the Moon and Mars.

In the last twenty five years, Indian space and missiletechnologies have matured and as a result, the nationnow possesses a tremendous integrated potential fordeveloping new world class systems. Indias spaceprogrammes have achieved several successful missionsand accomplishments. Today, the country is self-reliant in space technology as recently demonstratedby the Chandrayaan programme encompassingthe successful development from scratch and testingof a launch vehicle at a cost which is below the costof developing a passenger jet aircraft. With thisunprecedented strength in integrated technology,

ForewordIndia is presently in a position to advance furtherand embark upon new missions. With its immensecompetitive advantages, particularly in the spacesector, India needs to move from the old era oftechnology demonstration to the modern era ofcommercialisation by exploring new strategies andtechnologies for human spaceflight programmes andlow-cost access to space. Space tourism is one sucharea where India can play a niche role with itsaffordable yet reliable solutions.

In keeping with the foregoing, the Centre forAviation Studies of the University of Petroleum andEnergy Studies, Dehra Dun, India, with the extensivesupport and superb direction of Prof. Ram S. Jakhuof the Institute of Air & Space Law, McGillUniversity, Montreal, Canada, has conducted thisinterdisciplinary Study in order to assess thefeasibility of launching the space tourism industryin India.

This is the first such Study in India in which a teamof Research Assistants and Teachers from the fieldsof Management, Law and Aerospace Engineeringhave collaborated and brought their respectiveinterdisciplinary perspectives to bear on an emergingarea of commercial endeavour. It is hoped that theStudy Report will instigate critical thinking and alsoserve as a basis for carrying out further research inthis field.

DR. PARAG DIWANVice Chancellor

University of Petroleum & Energy StudiesDehra Dun, India

Research TeamChief Mentor

Dr. Parag Diwan, Vice Chancellor, UPES

Project Director

Prof. Dr. Ram S. Jakhu, IASL, McGill University

Research Team from UPES

Research Coordinator Prof. Dr. K.C. Gandhi, UPES

Faculty from Aerospace Engineering Prof. Dr. Om Prakash, UPES

Faculty from Law Prof. A.C. Kher, UPES

Research Assistant: Business Mr. Mukesh Mohan Pandey, UPES

Research Assistant: Business Mr. Awanish P. Singh, UPES

Research Assistant: Business Mr. Vikramjit Nath , UPES

Research Assistant: Engineering Ms. Disha Ahluwalia, UPES

Research Assistant: Engineering Mr. Abhijit Kumar, UPES

Research Assistant: Law Ms. Aparijita Sharma, UPES

Research Assistant: Law Mr. Sumit Kishore, UPES

External Advisors-Reviewers

Mr. Derek Webber, Spaceport Associates,Washington, DC, U.S.A.Dr. Olga Zhdanovich, European Space Agency, Noordwijk, the Netherlands

Dr. Ranjana Kaul, Dua Associates, New Delhi, India

Editor

Mr. Yaw Nyampong, IASL, McGill University

Table 1: Comparison between Suborbital and Orbital Flights 5

Table 2: Cross Tabulation of Variables with Participation in Suborbital Travel after Flipside 9

Table 3: Cross Tabulation of Variables with Participation in Orbital Travel after Flipside 14

Table 4: Requirement and Consequences of Orbital Vehicles 21

Table 5: Cost Structure of a Company Operating Suborbital Trips 43

Table 6: Expected Cash Flows for Suborbital Trip 43

Table 7: Cost Structure of Company Operating Orbital Flights 44

Table 8: Sensitivity Analysis of Cost Structure of Company Offering Orbital Trips 44

List of Tables

Figure 1: SpaceShipTwo slung beneath the WhiteKnightTwo Carrier Craft 3

Figure 2: Suborbital Forecast Methodology 9

Figure 3: Demand for Suborbital Travel for Tourism in India 11

Figure 4: Revenue Forecast from Suborbital Tourism in India 12

Figure 5: Methodology of Orbital Forecast 13

Figure 6: Expected Tourists on Soyuz 15

Figure 7: Expected Revenue in million US dollars 16

Figure 8: Design of Spaceport America 22

Figure 9: Architectural Rendering of Singapore Spaceport 22

Figure 10: Interest in Space Activities 41

List of Figures

SUBORBITAL: A spaceflight in which the spacecraft reaches space, but its trajectory intersects theatmosphere or surface of the gravitating body from which it was launched, so that it does notcomplete one orbital revolution

LOW EARTH ORBIT (LEO): An orbit within the locus extending from the Earths surface up toan altitude of 2,000 km.

ORBITAL: A spaceflight in which a spacecraft is placed on a trajectory where it could remain inspace for at least one orbital revolution

TRANS ORBITAL: This term is generally associated with the orbit far away from the Earths orbit

ISS: International Space Station

HNIs: High Net worth Individuals

CSLAA: Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act of 2004 (U.S.A.)

EASA: European Aviation Safety Agency

FAA: Federal Aviation Administration of the United States

GDP: Gross Domestic Product

HTHL: Horizontal Takeoff, Horizontal Landing

ICAO: International Civil Aviation Organization

SS1/SS2: SpaceShipOne / SpaceShipTwo

ROI: Return on Investment

VTVL: Vertical Takeoff Vertical Landing

RLV: Reusable launch vehicle

NPV: Net Present Value

IRR: Internal Rate of Return

SFP: Spaceflight Participants

ECLSS: Environmental Control and Life Support System

Definitions and Acronyms

C H A P T E R

1 Overview1.1 NEED FOR AND SIGNIFICANCE OF

THIS STUDY

Irrespective of the recent financial crisis that hasafflicted countries around the world, the fact remainsthat the world economy has grown during the pastdecade and so is the case of Indias economy. In severalcountries around the world, significantdevelopments have already taken place in the areaof space tourism. It is believed that as countriesemerge from the financial crisis, there will be a boomin economic and technological development, whichin turn, might also generate immense interest in spacetourism in India. With the current availability ofmoderate to high levels of income surpluses in India,and with the rapidly increasing middle and upperclasses of the general populace, it is expected that anew space tourism industry (or a sub-sector of theexisting adventure travel industry) will evolve. Inthis new era of travel, adventure seekers and travellerscan look forward to the possibility of enjoying thethrill and adventure of the high ground andmicrogravity environment of outer space. It istherefore timely to objectively determine therequired investment, market, infrastructure andregulatory regimes needed to facilitate the evolutionand establishment of this rather fascinating industryin India

1.2 MISSION STATEMENT

The purpose of this Study Report is encapsulatedin the following mission statement: Identification

and brief discussion of business, technical, regulatoryand policy issues with respect to the potential for,and possible operation of, the space tourism industryin India.

1.3 SCOPE OF THE STUDY

Space tourism involves travel adventures into, andthe experience of weightlessness in, outer space wherethere is almost no gravitational pull of the Earthand space. Over the last few years, a lot of productivework has been done in this field, yet the concept oftransporting passengers into space primarily fortourism still sounds futuristic. Thisnotwithstanding, there are clear and positiveindications that a space tourism industry is emergingin the world. The important segments/elements ofthe space tourism industry are the passengers(market), the infrastructure and manufacturers(facilities), and the space travel service operators andagencies (service providers). Each of these constituentelements is significantly influenced by secondaryfactors/requirements such as organization, financing,legal and policy matters, etc. The scope of this Studyis to explore and discuss these factors that mayfacilitate or hinder the establishment and operationof the space tourism industry in India, using aninterdisciplinary collaborative methodology.Before we proceed any further, it is necessaryto describe what the term Space Tourism is allabout.

2 / An Interdisciplinary Study on Space Tourism in India

1.4 WHAT IS SPACE TOURISM?

Space tourism encapsulates the notion that humanpassengers will have the opportunity to travelbeyond the Earths atmosphere and experienceorbital flights, prolonged stays in rotating spacehotels, and as well participate in research,entertainment and even sports while in outer space.At the outset, it is important to emphasize that thisconception of space tourism necessitates a paradigmshift in how space is perceived. Beyond consideringspace as a medium of flight akin to the air space (andthus constituting the journey), the concept of spacetourism requires that space be seen also as thedestination of the journey. The first terrestrialvehicle penetrated the orbit surrounding the Earthin 1957. Since then, the exploration and use of spacehas remained largely within the domain of nationalgovernments and professional astronauts. Over thecourse of human history, there has always been astrong desire to explore and travel to new andexciting places. Space exploration has captured theimagination of the general public for the last 50 years;it is only natural that members of the general publicare beginning now to ask if and when they too mightventure into space. In order to gain a practicalunderstanding of the term Space Tourism, it isessential to split the term into its two components:space and tourism, and each one of them exploredseparately.

1.4.1 Space

Space has been defined in many dictionaries as:

A boundless three-dimensional extent inwhich objects and events occur and has relativeposition and direction. (Merriam-Websterdictionary)

The infinite extension of the three-dimensionalregion in which all matter exists. (Freedictionary.com)

The empty area outside the Earthsatmosphere, where the planets and the starsare. (Cambridge Dictionaries).

The word space invigorates in any curiousindividual enthusiasm towards the darkness of theuniverse. In other words, curiosity gets the betterof us humans when we consider the extent andcomposition of space and one literally tries to seethe light beyond this darkness. Although it is saidthat curiosity kills, it is the same curiosity that drovemankind to reach the heights it has attained so far.Space exploration, aerodynamics, technology,communication, satellites, orbits and the list goeson-and-on are all attributable to human curiosityand enthusiasm for aviation and space explorationand use.

Space is a term that can refer to various phenomenain science, mathematics, and communications. Inastronomy and cosmology, space is the vast three-dimensional region that begins from where theEarths atmosphere ends. Space is usually thoughtto begin at the lowest altitude at which satellites canmaintain orbits for a reasonable time without fallinginto the Earths atmosphere. This is approximately60 miles (about 100 kilometres) above the surface ofthe Earth. Although the frontier between theatmosphere and space is not officially defined, it isgenerally accepted that for all practical purposes spacebegins at an altitude of about 100 km from thesurface of the Earth.

1.4.2 Tourism

Tourism derives from the word tour which meansa journey in a circuit. The operative word in thatdefinition is circuit and it signifies a return journeyto the point of origin. The United Nations WorldTourism Organization (UNWTO) defines touristsas people who travel to and stay in places outsidetheir usual environment for more than twenty-four(24) hours and not more than one consecutive year

Overview / 3

for leisure, business and other purposes not relatedto the exercise of an activity remunerated fromwithin the place visited.1

Tourism has become a popular global leisure activity.According to the UNWTO, international tourismhas been expanding annually at a rate of 6.5% (from25 million tourists in 1950 to 806 million in 2005),contributing about US$ 680 billion to the worldeconomy in 2005 alone. Moreover, it has beenreported that in 2009, international tourismgenerated an amount of US$ 852 billion in revenueand it is expected that by 2020, the number ofinternational tourists will surpass 1.5 billion.2

In India, the adventure travel industry has onlyrecently emerged as an important sub-sector of thelocal travel & tourism industry. Forecasts suggestthat this is likely to represent 0.2% of the overallaggregate revenue of the industry. A Demand Notefor 2010-2011 presented by the Ministry of Tourismto the Ministry of Finance emphasises the Indiangovernments focus on the developing/strengtheningthe leisure and cultural tourism sector. Adventuretourism and Medical tourism have been identifiedas new focus segments. Presently, only a few fivestar hotels and upmarket travel agents are offeringfor sale products falling within this unique sectorof the market.

Space and tourism have both developed at an equallyrapid pace, and the potential for growth of the twoendeavours when combined is definitely huge.Although currently, human spaceflight is onlypossible in a handful of space-exploring nations,recent advances in space technology andentrepreneurship are about to change the status quo.China for instance was able to place an astronaut inspace in 2003 in a fraction of the time that it tookother traditional space powers (such as the U.S. andthe U.S.S.R.) to achieve this feat. The first credibleprivate space-tourist venture is already a reality. Mr.Denis Tito became the first private space touristwhen, in 2001, he travelled to space as a fare paying

tourist. Although the flight involved a governmentvehicle, his participation in it was privately funded.

Thus, space tourism connotes the provision offacilities and services that enables humans to accessand experience space for purposes of adventure andrecreation, and in like manner, a space tourist is aperson who travels to and experiences space foradventure and recreation. In this Report, the termspace tourist is used interchangeably with spacetraveller, space passenger, and spaceflight participant.

Essentially, space tourism flights can be grouped intotwo categories: i.e. suborbital and orbital flights onthe basis of how they travel in space.

1.4.2.1 Suborbital Tourism

As the term suggests, a suborbital flight is a flightinto space that does not attain orbital altitude.Currently priced at around US$ 200,000 perpassenger per flight, a suborbital flight would takea tourist to an altitude above the Earth on atrajectories path, at the peak of which one wouldexperience microgravity and can see the Earthscurvature and the hollow black space around it. Thespacecraft will probably shut off its engines beforereaching maximum altitude and then coast up to itshighest point. Participation in a suborbital flightrequires about a weeks worth of training.

(Courtesy: Virgin Galactic Scaled Composite Design)

Figure 1: SpaceShipTwo slung beneath theWhiteKnightTwo Carrier Craft


As seen in Figure 1 above, the flight would be in anaircraft-like vehicle with rocket engines, which wouldbe ferried by a carrier aircraft to an altitude of 50,000feet from where it would be jettisoned and launchedfor the suborbital flight phase with the aid of rocketpower achieving a speed of Mach 3.5 in the process.The rocket fuel would be depleted as the vehiclecompletes its ascent, and at the top of the trajectory,the spaceship would have reached its maximumaltitude where the effect of microgravity would befelt. The spacecraft would then glide back to theEarth and would make a conventional landing eitherat the take-off airport or at any other alternateairport/spaceport chosen for the purpose.

Initially, suborbital tourist flights will focus onattaining the altitude required to qualify as havingreached space. The likelihood is that the flight pathwill be either vertical or very steep, with thespacecraft landing back at its original take-off site.In addition to being used for space tourism, futuresuborbital flights may hold the potential to reduceexisting intercontinental flight times usingconventional aircraft to a fraction of what they aretoday and they could also provide a platform forbiotechnology and medical science experiments.

1.4.2.2 Orbital Tourism

Orbital tourism on the other hand involves a verticallaunch of passengers into orbit aboard a reusablelaunch vehicle (RLV) such as the American spaceshuttles. The vehicle would dock with a space-basedhabitat such as the International Space Station (ISS)

and the space travellers would stay there for a weekor more before returning to the Earth. So far, onlya handful of tourists have been to theISS, paying a price of about US$ 20 Million perpassenger.

The orbital experience is totally different from thesuborbital experience in the sense that in the former,participants will experience microgravitythroughout their stay, orbit the Earth and see thesunrise every 90 minutes. They will eat and live likeastronauts do and tell the world about theuniqueness of the trip. But, participating in an orbitalflight comes with a hefty set of health and fitnessrequirements. Flying to space requires a high levelof physical fitness due to the extreme amounts ofstress that the body is subjected to as a result of theabsence of gravity. A person participating in anorbital trip would be required to undergo rigoroustraining for about 6 months so as to becomeacclimatized to zero gravity living, manoeuvring andalso some operational functions and controls in theISS.

From Table 1 below, it can be seen that an orbitaltrip would exert more pressure on the human bodyin the terms of speed, heat, gravity-forces andtemperature. The risks are also very high for theorbital trip; an orbital trip is exposed to an increasedlevel of danger during re-entry. An orbital vehiclewould be more susceptible to debris due to itsattitude and duration, but the overall experience inparticipating in such flights would be exhilaratingfor those seeking high adrenaline adventures.

Overview / 5

Comparing Orbital Launch Systems (Reusable) with Suborbital Spaceplane Systems

Differences in Characteristics Reusable Orbital Launch System Sub-orbital Spaceplanes

Maximum velocities Up to Mach 30 Mach 4 to 6

G forces Very High G forces 3 to 5 g (during descent)

Thermal Gradients on Re-entry Thousands of Degrees Celsius Hundreds of Degrees Celsius

Environmental Protection Systems and Structural Strength of Vehicle

Very demanding in terms of design and materials

Much less demanding in terms of structural strength, atmospheric systems, life support, etc

Exposure to Radiation Can be at high levels Minimal exposure due to short flight duration and lower altitudes

Exposure to Potential Orbital Debris collisions

Exposure increases as length of mission increases

Exposure risk is very low due to short duration and lower altitudes

Escape systems Parts of the flight are exposed to high thermal gradients making escape systems extremely difficult and expensive to design

Escape systems are much easier to design due to lower thermal gradients, lower altitude, etc

Types of flight suits required Complex and expensive flight suits required Simple and lower cost flight suits are required due to lower altitudes, lower thermal gradients, much shorter exposure to low oxygen atmosphere

Launch Risk Factors

(overall)

Very high Considerably lower and different

Table 1: Comparison between Suborbital and Orbital Flights

C H A P T E R

2 MarketAn understanding of the potential demand andmarket for space tourism is the key toexamining the feasibility of space tourism in India.As such, in order to make market forecasts for spacetourism in India, a preliminary survey wasconducted as part of this Study. In this Chapter,the methodology adopted for the conduct of thatsurvey and to arrive at the resulting forecasts isdiscussed. This Chapter also provides forecasts foreach type of space travel (i.e. for suborbital andorbital tourism in India). It is important to notethat the figures in the Study Report are mereforecasts and projections and should not be regardedas accurate estimates

2.1 METHODOLOGY OF THE SURVEY

To explore the feasibility of establishing an Indianspace tourism industry from scratch, very highweight was attributed to the analysis of factorsaffecting demand for travel/trips similar to spacetourism in the sense that people generally have avery low level of awareness about such adventures.Accordingly, the survey questions were designed insuch a way that they also contained a briefdescription about the pros and cons of the two typesof flights that can be used for space tourism; i.e.suborbital and orbital flights. The current demandfor space travel in India was examined by selecting agroup of High Net worth Individuals (HNIs), thesegment of the general population that can affordsuch trips. The objective was to subjectively analyze

current demand to provide a foundational basis formaking verifiable market and demand forecasts forthe future. The survey focussed on the followinggeneral themes:

What are the characteristics of potentialcustomers?

What would be the best time to introduce theventure in India?

What is the revenue expected from the market?

Although orbital and suborbital transportationis open to many potential applications (e.g.,point-to-point travel on the surface of theEarth) the survey was restricted to only twotypes of travel:

A suborbital trip of 15-minutes duration

An orbital trip with possible stay of atleast one week at the ISS

The survey participants were also exposed to somenear future possibilities (i.e., those likely tomaterialize over the next 20 years) and asked to makeforecasts and give opinions about developmentsrequired to facilitate the occurrence of those futurepossibilities.

Each participant was given a questionnaire containinga set of objective questions with a brief descriptionabout the experiences of the trip so as to allow for abetter conceptual understanding of the question. TheHNIs selected to participate in the study were those


with a minimum net worth of US$ 1 million orannual income greater than US$ 0.1 million. Thedata was obtained from a combination of sourcesincluding: the Capitaline financial advisory database;the 2008 Annual World Wealth Report publishedby Capgemini & Merril Lynch; and, the 2008 ForbesList of Indian billionaires.

According to the 2008 Capgemini & Merril LynchAnnual World Wealth Report, there are 84,000Indians with disposable net worth greater than US$1 million. Therefore, the population size for thestudy was fixed at 84,000. At a confidence intervalof 95% and a margin of error of +/- 8%, the samplesize for the study was 150. The sampling methodadopted was the probability simple randomsampling without replacement method. In this typeof method, the selection sample is randomly selectedfrom the population and is never again selected.

A questionnaire was prepared in order to extractfrom the survey participants the appropriateinformation required for a robust market analysisand to allow for better conceptual understanding.Realities such as fitness and training requirements,the physical hardship of the trip itself, and thecurrent price of orbital and suborbital flights are allfactors that could greatly affect customer interestin, and thus the demand for, space travel services.Realizing that an accurate assessment of the currentdemand for space travel is dependent upon anaccurate portrayal of every aspect of space tourism,the survey sought to incorporate objectivity andrealism by presenting a complete picture of spacetravel both its glamorous and less-glamorous sides,thus making it more realistic and accurate. A pilottest of the questionnaire was also conducted.

The timeframe of the survey was from 21st June 2009to 15th September 2009. Since HNIs usually havevery little time to participate in such surveys, wewere only able to collect responses from a mere 10%of our sample size during the three-month duration

of the survey. Consequently, the responses of theremainder of the sample size were simulated on thebasis of their correlation with each particularrespondents age, education, gender, profession andlocation.

2.2 SUBORBITAL DEMAND FORECASTMETHODOLOGY

A survey was undertaken to try to determine andportray the current market for space travel in India.This survey comprises of fifteen-year forecast ofmarket demand. The results of the survey aresignificant elements in the forecasts for public spacetravel. Together with additional data incorporatedinto the questionnaire to reconfirm the respondentsparticipation, the survey results were analyzed todetermine the number of suborbital space travelpassengers per year for the next fifteen years. Asummary of the methodology used to formulate theforecast is presented in Figure 2 below along withdetailed descriptions in the subsections that follow.Factors identified and considered in order to obtainthe forecasts from the baseline population have beenstatistically validated.

2.2.1 Estimating the Potential Market for SuborbitalTravel in India

The suborbital travel forecast attempted to predictthe potential pool of customers for the service.Although a great portion of the general populationmay be interested in suborbital travel, the currentprice tag prevents many from becoming viablecustomers for this service.

In order to extrapolate the forecast from the resultsof the survey for suborbital travel by HNIs, it wasassumed that one qualifying individual is equal toone household and that the attitudinal andbehavioural component of each respondenttowards space travel remained constant over a periodof time.

Market / 9

The potential market was then narrowed to a targetmarket for suborbital space travel by applyinglimiting factors such as interest in suborbital travel,willingness to pay current prices, reasons forinterest in spaceflight and physical fitness.

Specifically, the individual levels of interest weremeasured on the basis of responses such asdefinitely and very likely given by respondentsto questions pertaining to their participation insuborbital space travel, after having been presented

Figure 2: Suborbital Forecast Methodology

Table 2: Cross Tabulation of Variables with Participation in Suborbital Travel after Flipside

Base Population

Interest

Unique Experience

Physical Fitness

Target Market

Passenger Forecast

Number of affluent households (i.e., net worth greater than US$1 million)

Apply percentage of households interested in sub orbital trip

In out-years of forecast, remove customers likely to lose interest in space flight because of the desire to be a pioneer

Apply percentage of households likely to be physically fine enough to withstand space flight unique experience

Arrive at target market for suborbital flights (number of people, assuming 1 person per household)

Arrive at total passenger forecast for suborbital public space travel

Participation after flip side description Likeliness to pay for suborbital trip Visit to theDoctor Reason for space travel Crosstabulation

Reason for spacetravel Visit to the Doctor

Unique experience Once in a fortnight Participation after flip side Never 25 25Total 25 25

Once in a month Participation after flip side Very likely 5 0 5Doubutful 0 10 10

Total 5 10 15

Once in a six month Participation after flip side Very likely 8 8Total 8 8

Space enthusiam Once in a fortnight Participation after flip side Never 39 39Total 39 39

Once in a month Participation after flip side Very likely 0 7 7description Doubtful 11 0 11Total 11 7 18

Once in a six month Participation after flip side Definitely 0 10 0 10description Very likely 0 0 7 7

Doubtful 0 8 0 8Never 20 0 0 20

Total 20 18 7 45

Likeliness to pay for suborbital tripINR 1 crore INR 75 lacs INR 50 lacs INR 25 lacs Total


with both the attractive and non-attractive aspectsof suborbital flight. Their responses were thenanalyzed in addition to their responses to the rangeof suborbital price points given in the survey.

Overall, this analysis revealed that although 25% ofrespondents were interested in participating in aspace tourism trip even after hearing the flipsidedescription of such travel, none of the surveyrespondents were willing to pay the current pricecharged for a suborbital trip. However, with areduction in price to US$ 150,000, it was found that3% of the individuals sampled were willing toundertake a suborbital trip. With a further reductionof the price to US$ 100,000 it was found that 11%of the respondents were willing to take part in asuborbital trip.

Meanwhile, according to the 2009 World WealthReport published by the McKinsey Global Institute,the number of households in the millionaire categorywill continue growing at a compounded annualgrowth rate of 10% till 2025. Therefore, in the surveywe also compounded our baseline potentialcustomer population with the same rate. Thereafter,we applied these percentages to the baseline potentialcustomer population to arrive at a baseline demandfor suborbital space travel from 2010 to 2025assuming the attitudinal and behavioural patternsof potential customers remained constantthroughout.

2.2.2 Pioneering Reduction

Customers interest in new products and servicesvary for any number of reasons and can changequickly. The reasons provided by respondents insupport of their interest in space travel included:fulfilling a lifelong dream; wanting to see Earth fromspace; and, experiencing weightlessness. However,more than 5% of the respondents who wereinterested in, and willing to pay US$ 100,000 for,suborbital travel indicated that the primary reason

for their interest was to do something that only afew people had done before; in other words, tobecome a pioneer. This reasoning presents a potentialthreat to interest levels as the service becomes regular.Thus, to account for this likely drop-off in interestdue to the loss of pioneers, a pioneering reductionwas inculcated into the forecast. This reduction beginsafter the tenth year of service in 2021 for thesuborbital travel market, with complete removal ofthe pioneer-driven demand in the period between2021 and 2025. Therefore, it can be observed fromthe cross tabulation that although 16% of peoplewere willing to pay US$ 100,000 and are interestedin participating in a suborbital trip, 5% of that 16%were willing to go because it is unique and exclusive.Taking this phenomenon into account, only 11%(as against 16%) of the sample size was taken as thedemand for suborbital trips in the given period.

2.2.3 Physical Fitness

At this time, affordability and interest in suborbitaltravel are the primary constraints on demand forsuborbital travel. However, suborbital spaceflightis an inherently risky activity and will requireparticipants to have attained a certain level of physicalfitness in order to withstand the physical stresses ofthe flight at least until such time that the vehicleshave undergone substantial changes that wouldreduce those stresses. Therefore, interestedcustomers who can afford a ticket may be effectivelyprevented from participating in suborbital flightson account of their low levels of physical fitness.

Therefore, as part of the survey respondents werequestioned regarding the frequency of their visitsto the doctor. Respondents who indicated that theyvisit the doctor at least once in a month wereconsidered fit to withstand the stresses of suborbitaltravel. It must be noted however that, as an indicator,regular visits to the doctor is just one of many criteriafor assessing individual fitness.

Market / 11

2.2.4 Suborbital Demand Forecast

The baseline forecast for suborbital public spacetravel assumes a 15-minute trip on a suborbitaltrajectory, preceded by three to seven days oftraining. Although it is likely that at some point inthe future, suborbital vehicles could be used to serveother niche markets such as rapid package deliveryand point-to-point passenger transport, it is not clearwhen expansion into these applications will likelyoccur. Therefore, the suborbital forecast focusessolely on the suborbital scenario described aboveand does not reflect changes in demand attributableto the extension of suborbital transportation to otherapplications.

The initial service price of US$ 200, 000 per passengerper trip has been maintained for the first three yearsof service; however the price is reduced to US$150,000 and kept constant at that level till 2020.Thereafter, it is reduced further to US$ 100,000.

Figure 3 below illustrates the number of passengerslikely to demand suborbital public space travelservice over the forecast period. This forecast doesnot assume any supply constraints following theinitial launching of the service as service capacity andtechnical details of potential vehicles have not beenestablished at this time. However, demand isconstrained until the assumed or expected date ofcommencement of service in 2010 at which pointdemand would be nil. However, with a slightreduction in price to US$ 150,000, the demandforecast shoots to 4,192 passengers in 2010 and toover 49,749 passengers in 2025 at which time fullregular service is finally assumed to have begun. Wesee a dramatic rise in demand from the year 2021onwards mainly due to the fact that respondentswere highly sensitive to prices; with a reduction inthe price of a suborbital trip from US$ 150,000 toUS$ 100,000, of the great majority of respondentsopted to undertake the travel.

Figure 3: Demand for Suborbital Travel for Tourism in India


The revenue projections for the suborbital travelmarket demonstrate the potential revenue that couldbe realized if all of the forecasted demand for flightscould be met. Thus, in Figure 4 below, it will beobserved that total revenues from suborbital trips

start from US$ 629 million in 2013 and increases toUS$ 4,975 billion in 2025. It should be noted thatsupply constraints on the market could significantlylower the potential number of passengers andtherefore, revenue.

Figure 4: Revenue Forecast from Suborbital Tourism in India

2.3 ORBITAL FORECASTMETHODOLOGY

As with the suborbital forecasts, the results of thesurvey were analysed along with additional datausing a methodology that is tailored to the orbitalmarket in order to develop a demand forecast fororbital space travel assuming that supply would notbe a constraint. A summary of the methodologyused to formulate the forecast is shown in Figure 5below, with detailed descriptions in the subsectionsthat follow. The factors identified and consideredin order to arrive at forecast from the baselinepopulation were statistically validated using the chi-square test of significance.

2.3.1 Estimating the Potential Market

Given the current ticket price of US$ 20 millionper passenger per trip, affordability is the majorbarrier to becoming a viable customer for orbitalspace travel. According to a Space Tourism MarketStudy conducted by Futron Corporation a[c]ombined analysis of the ticket price, the networth ratio of past space tourists Dennis Tito andMark Shuttleworth, and the vacation anddiscretionary income spending habits of the Futron/Zogby survey results indicate that the ticket priceshould be no more than ten percent of anindividuals net worth for that individual to beconsidered a viable customer.3 Therefore, at acurrent ticket price of US$ 20 million, the potentialcustomers net worth would have to be US$ 200million at the very least.

Market / 13

Respondents with individual net worths greater thanUS$ 200 million are a rare group and belong to asuper affluent class in India. Information and dataconcerning such respondents was gathered fromForbes 2008 list of Indian billionaires andCapitalines 2008 report. These individuals were usedas the pool of potential customers for orbital trips.

From the base pool of potential customers in India,the target market of customers was identified usinglimiting factors such as interest in orbital travel,willingness to pay current prices, reasons for interestin spaceflight, and level of physical fitness.

The survey measured interest in orbital space travelby questioning respondents about their interest andparticipation. Specifically, the level of interest ofindividual respondents was measured based on thetypes of responses provided by the respondents.Those individuals who responded definitely orvery likely to questions pertaining to theirwillingness to participate in orbital travel after

having been presented with both the positive andnegative aspects of orbital spaceflight were selectedto form the target group.

Overall, the analysis revealed that 13% of surveyrespondents were both interested in the flight andwilling to pay the current price of US$ 20 million,and their interest remained unaffected by pricereductions going as low as US$ 10 million. Therefore,the price of US$ 20 million for this type of travelwas kept constant throughout the forecast period.

Thereafter, the percentage of people interested inand willing to pay the price of the flight was appliedto the total target market to arrive at a potentialbaseline demand for orbital public space travel inthe period spanning 2010 to 2025.

2.3.2 Pioneering Reduction

As with suborbital travel, the respondents reasonsfor wanting to participate in orbital travel included

Figure 5: Methodology of Orbital Forecast

Base Population

Interest

Unique Experience

Physical Fitness

Target Market

Passenger Forecast

Number of affluent households (i.e., net worth greater than US$1 million)

Apply percentage of households interested in sub orbital trip

In out-years of forecast, remove customers likely to lose interest in space flight because of the desire to be a pioneer

Apply percentage of households likely to be physically fine enough to withstand space flight unique experience

Arrive at target market for suborbital flights (number of people, assuming 1 person per household)

Arrive at total passenger forecast for suborbital public space travel


fulfilling a lifelong dream, wanting to see Earth fromspace, and experiencing weightlessness. It was alsofound that a few respondents wanted to participatejust because only an exclusive group of people havepreviously undertaken orbital flights; in otherwords, they too wanted to become pioneers ormembers of this unique class of people. Thisreasoning presents a potential threat to interest levelsas the service becomes regular. Thus, to account forthis likely drop-off in interest due to the loss ofpioneers, a pioneering reduction could have beenintroduced into the forecast. However, the surveyindicated that the overwhelming majority ofinterested respondents wanted to participate in anorbital flight due mainly to their enthusiasm forspace, and not exclusively because they wanted tobe unique. As such, no pioneering reduction wasapplied in the analysis.

2.3.3 Physical Fitness

Presently, affordability and interest in orbital travelare the major factors that determine the viability ofdemand for orbital travel. However, orbitalspaceflight is an inherently risky activity andcurrently requires thorough medical certificationand up to six months of extensive training. Eventhough potential customers may be interested inundertaking an orbital trip and are able to affordthe ticket price, they may be prevented from doingso on the basis of their current state of physicalfitness.

Respondents were assessed in terms of physicalfitness on the basis of the frequency of their visitsto the doctor. Since regular visits to the doctor isonly one of many criteria that could be used inassessing individual levels of physical fitness, it wasassumed in this survey that respondents who visitedthe doctor at least once every six months werephysically fit to participate in such trips.

Table 3: Cross Tabulation of Variables with Participation in Orbital Travel after FlipsideParticipation in orbital trip after flip side description Likeness to pay for Orbital trip Visit to the Doctor Networth Reason for space travel Crosstabulation

Reason for space travel Networth Visit to the Doctor

Likeness to pay for Orbital trip Total

INR 100crore

INR 50crore

INR 25crore

Unique experience 5-35 Crore Once in a fortnight 25 25Total 25 25

Once in a month Participation in orbital trip after flip side description Doubtful 10 10

Total 10 1036-1000 Crore Once in a month Participation in orbital trip after flip side description Doubtful 5 5

Total 5 5Once in a six month Participation in orbital trip after flip side description Doubtful 8 8

Total 8 8

Space Enthusiam

Market / 15

2.3.4 Conversion to Launches

Currently, the only vehicle used in providing orbitalspace travel flights is the Russian-developed Soyuzrocket. This reality places a rigid supply constrainton orbital space travel launches available for publicparticipation. In the forecast, a number of key factorsincluding the existence of an orbital travel marketand a vehicle to provide the service, as well as knownsupply constraints were applied to the passengerforecast.

Using the passenger demand statistics, passengerswere allocated extra seats on Soyuz capsules thatwould be flying on ISS supply missions in the initialyears of the forecast. It was assumed that Soyuzflights to the ISS would continue at the current rateof two tourists per year until 2015, and wouldexclusively serve Indian passengers throughout theforecast period. From 2015 to 2020, it was assumedthat four Soyuz flights carrying four passengers per

year would accommodate all the crewmembers ofthe ISS. However, the current trend of carrying asingle passenger on a Soyuz flight is subject to changewith the introduction of a single astronaut and twopassenger configuration. We assumed that thischange will occur in 2020; therefore the Soyuzcapsule would carry eight passengers per year.

2.3.5 Orbital Forecast

The forecast for orbital space travel is based on atwo-week orbital trip preceded by six months oftraining. The forecast assumes a current ticket priceof US$ 20 million at the beginning of the forecast in2010, which remains unchanged till 2025. Theforecast for orbital space travel results in a cumulative8 passengers over the entire forecast period as theonly means of providing the flight till now is througha Soyuz capsule.

Figure 6: Expected Tourists on Soyuz

The revenue forecast for the orbital travel marketdemonstrates the potential revenue that can berealized if all of the demand for orbital flights couldbe met. However, supply continues to remains asevere challenge. Up until now, it is only the Soyuz

rocket/capsule that is capable of ferrying passengersinto and out of orbit. Accordingly, we assumed thatup till the year 2025, it is possible that no otheragency would commence such type of travel. Thus,we found that, at most, supply projections can only


fulfil demand for 8 passenger seats per year between2020 and 2025. This is shown in Figure 6 above. Wealso found that total revenue from orbital trips

would start at US$ 40 million in 2010 and increaseto US$ 160 million by 2025. (See Figure 7 below).

Figure 7: Expected Revenue in million US Dollars

These revenue forecasts are exclusively based on thehardcore operations of space-flight. Various ancillaryrevenue sources like theme and virtual reality spaceparks; space camps; training, production and launchrecovery facilities, trip training facilities, and othersuch public quasi-entertainment facilities have notbeen taken into account in the revenue forecasts. In

the realm of air transportation for example, suchancillary revenues represent quite an importantmeans of revenue generation in the aviation industryas a whole. In similar fashion, the inclusion ofsecondary revenue sources in the projection ofrevenue forecasts for orbital space travel couldprovide a very promising picture.

C H A P T E R

3 Facilities, Infrastructureand Human ResourcesThe facilities, infrastructure and human resourcesrequired for a viable space transportationnetwork are a significant part of the challenge facingthe development of the space tourism industry. Inthis connection, the key considerations relate to therequirements for a safe transportation system(vehicle), appropriate spaceports and other relatedground infrastructure, suitable air and space trafficmanagement systems, and the impact of theseelements on other areas of human activity and onthe Earth and space environment. This Chapterdiscusses these issues and describes some of thechallenges, potential solutions, and conditions thatmust be met if the space tourism industry is to beviable in India.

3.1 VEHICLES FOR SPACE TOURISM

Over the last few years, various technologicaldevelopments have occurred in the field oftransportation for space tourism and the technologycontinues to evolve at a rapid rate. Numerous privatecompanies are venturing into this field and investinghuge amounts of capital. Some of the major namesin this field are Virgin Galactic, Bristol Spaceplanes,Rocketplane, XCOR Aerospace, Space X, and BlueOrigin. Also, governmental organizations like theEuropean Aeronautic Defence and Space CompanyN.V. (EADS) are building and testing various kindsof space vehicles that could be used to providetransportation for space tourism. In this sub-section,the discussion of vehicles is restricted to sub-orbital

travel since we believe that within of the next 7 to10 years, sub-orbital flights will become a routinedue to its lower cost to prospective tourists and theproven safety and reliability associated with thetechnology. As such, in comparison to orbital travel,it is expected that the suborbital travel sector willattract more space tourists in the years to come.

3.1.1 Spaceship4

The Spaceship vehicle is an air-launched suborbitalspace-plane developed by Scaled Composites Inc.,meant for transportation of passengers to an altitudeof about 100 kilometres above the Earths surfacewhere they will experience micro gravity.SpaceShipOne features a rubber-nitrous oxidehybrid rocket engine and cold gas attitude controlthrusters; a graphite/epoxy primary structure; 3-place, sea-level, shirt-sleeve cabin environment; a lowmaintenance thermal protection system; and aunique feathered reentry system.5 The modifiedversion, SpaceShipTwo, which will be usedcommercially for space tourism, will carry 2 crewmembers and 4 passengers.

The space-plane is carried under the belly of a ScaledComposites WhiteKnight carrier aircraft. TheWhiteKnight is a piloted, twin-turbojet aircraft. Itsfirst flight took place on 1st August 2002. It providesa high-altitude airborne launch of SpaceShipOne.The WhiteKnight is also equipped to flight-qualifyall the SpaceShipOne systems, except those driven


by rocket propulsion. The aircrafts cockpit,avionics, life support systems, pneumatics, trimservos, data system, and electrical systemcomponents are identical to those installed inSpaceShipOne.

At 50,000 feet, the WhiteKnight dropsSpaceShipOne, which then climbs almost verticallyunder power at 3-4g acceleration. The hybrid engineburns out at Mach 3.5, 65 seconds after ignition.The spaceplane coasts to an altitude of approximately100 km. (328,000 ft.) before free-falling back to theEarth. The pilot and passengers experiencemicrogravity above the atmosphere for about 3 to 5minutes.

While in space, the wings of SpaceShipOne are foldedto provide a shuttle-cock or feather effect, givingthe spaceship extremely high drag for re-entry. Thisallows re-entry deceleration to occur at a higheraltitude and greatly reduces the forces and heatingto which the structure would have been otherwiseexposed. Also, in the feathered configuration, theship aligns itself automatically so that the pilot has aless-critical flight control task. Once in contact withthe atmosphere, the feathered wings position thevehicle to the correct altitude without pilot input.

Virgin Galactic, founded by Sir Richard Branson,is perhaps the most visible company in the privatespace race, attempting to be the first to send touristsinto sub-orbit. The company is selling tickets aboardits SpaceShipTwo suborbital vehicle for aboutUS$200,000 per passenger, with the first flightsexpected to occur soon.

The concept of a spacecraft which takes-off and landshorizontally has also been explored and used byScaled Composites Inc., (under contract with VirginGalactic). It involves an aircraft calledWhiteKnightOne, a mother ship, taking off froman airport with a spacecraft, SpaceShipOne. WhenWhiteKnightOne reaches an altitude of 50,000 feet,SpaceShipOne that takes off (is launched into)

towards space and the mother ship,WhiteKnightOne, returns to an airport and landshorizontally like an aircraft. SpaceShipOne climbsto an altitude of more than 60 miles (approximately100 kilometers) with its passengers (occupants orspaceflight participants) where they experienceweightlessness before re-entering into the Earthsatmosphere and SpaceShipOne likeWhiteKnightOne returns to an airport and landshorizontally like an aircraft.

As a sleek and more powerful six-passenger craft,the SpaceShipTwo (second generation ofSpaceShipOne) is designed to travel at about fourtimes the speed of sound and to zoom completelyout of the Earths atmosphere reaching true spacemore than 60 miles (approximately100 kilometers)above the Earth.

The price tag for developing Virgin Galactics high-profile venture, including a hulking, four-enginedplane intended to carry the rocket-powered vehicleduring the initial part of its ascent, could end upbeing more than US$ 50 million per spacecraft.

3.1.2 Rocketplane XP6

The Rocketplane XP is a suborbital space vehiclebeing developed by Rocketplane Inc. It promises aflight carrying one pilot and 5 passengers up to analtitude of 100 kilometres, including a four-minuteexperience of weightlessness and a spectacular view.The vehicles fuselage is a modified Lear 25 seriesaircraft that will use two General Electric CJ-610turbojet engines. These will be used for take-off andwill be shut down after ignition of the rocket engineat an altitude of about 12 kilometres. One of the jetengines would be restarted at high altitude after re-entry as the craft makes its way on the approachcorridor of the spaceport. Rocketplane Inc., hassecured a rocketdyne RS-88 rocket engine fromNASA for a period of 3 years for use in flight tests.

Further developments to this design include a delta

Facilities, Infrastructure and Human Resources / 19

wing that attaches to the Lear jet fuselage. Inaddition, a new aft fuselage structure is beingfabricated to accommodate the rocket engine thrustload. The vehicle also is getting a new vertical tailstructure. The starting fare per passenger is targetedto be between US$ 150,000 and US$ 160,000 withan estimated 200 passengers per year initially. Inspite of the foregoing, Rocketplane Inc., has not beenable to gather the required funds to start the project.

3.1.3 Lynx7

The Lynx vehicle is a two person suborbital space-plane designed by XCOR Aerospace as a follow upto an initial design of space ship Xerox. The Lynxwill only fly to an altitude of 60 miles and passengerswill experience weightlessness and have a broad viewof the Earth below. It will use a new engine,designated as 5K18 which produces between 2500to 2900 pounds per foot (lb/f) thrust by burning amixture of liquid oxygen and kerosene. The enginehas been successfully tested at XCORs rocket testfacility located at the Mojave Air and Space Port inthe U.S. As a possible pre-emption of any criticismof the vehicle on environmental grounds, thecompany has stated that the Lynxs liquid-propellantengines will minimize the environmental impactof the flights. They are fully reusable, burn cleanly,and release fewer particulates than solid fuel orhybrid rocket motors. Tickets are expected to sellfor US$ 95,000 each.

3.1.4 Astrium8

Although different space jet designs were studiedby EADS, the current shape of the Astriumspacecraft is the outcome of computer simulationsand final wind tunnel verification work at theGerman Aerospace Centres Cologne facility in thelast quarter of 2006. The fuselage will have a highcomposite content and its moving canards areintended to aid vertical climb and to play a key rolein helping to change the vehicles descent mode from

re-entry to conventional flight. Reaching 39,300ft(12,000m) with two turbofans, the vehicles singlepilot will fire an EADS Ottobrunn-design, liquid-oxygen, methane rocket motor. The plane will thenrise along a vertical trajectory. For 90 seconds offlight with a top speed of Mach 3, the plane will berocketed upwards. The maximum acceleration is 3 g(30 m/s). At an altitude of 60 km, the rocket engineis shut down and the plane continues to climb up toa maximum altitude of 100 km. Then the planedescends to an altitude of 15 km at a high angle ofattack, being progressively decelerated byatmospheric drag. At this altitude, the planetransitions to aeronautical mode and the jets arereignited to bring the plane back to a classical landingstrip. At present, the Astrium business plan envisagesone flight per week.

3.1.5 Which Vehicle will be the Most Desirable forSpace Tourism in India?

It is obvious that internationally, there is an ongoingrush to develop space vehicles of various kinds.However, the new spaceflight technologies are stillin their developmental stages to date, there hasbeen only one test flight involving the SpaceShipOnevehicle. As such, it is difficult to assess and verifythe safety of these emerging means of spacetransportation. There is no solid accumulatedknowledgebase that can be relied upon todemonstrate that, from an engineering point ofview, the SpaceShipOne vehicle is safe for humantravel to space, and that effects on the human bodyas forecasted are correct from the perspective of thesafety of passengers, and that tour operators knowexactly how to train passengers in order to maketheir flights safe.

In this context, one may recall that before YuriGagarin took flight into space, there were morethan 10 launches of the spaceship Vostok with mock-up human passengers and dogs Belka and Strelkawho returned safely aboard the craft. However, a


few other dog-crew members died because a boosterrocket was blown at the launch pad. It should alsobe kept in mind that currently the private sector israpidly developing technology without consultingthe well established space industry which hasdeveloped fairly proven, reliable and safe technologydating back more than 50 years.

From the economic perspective, it is clear that thingsare going to change for the better. Globally, positiveindicators such as rising per capita income andgroveling GDP suggest that change is about to occur.But the question that arises is whether India will beprepared to take full advantage of this new era ofopportunity. For present purposes, this translatesinto an inquiry about the possibility of offeringspace travel services from India. In order to offerspace travel services from India, three options areavailable: (a) Provision of the service by a foreignoperator; (b) Provision of the service by an Indiancompany with foreign built vehicles; and, (c) thepossibility of developing a vehicle in India byindependent means or through a joint venture withan international entity having the expertise andexperience in this field. The following sections brieflyexplore each of these options.

Provision of the service by a foreign operator: Thisis one of the most pragmatic options available forpurposes of starting a space tourism industry in India.Already, Virgin Galactic is trying to market its spacetravel services for tourists based in India. It has adedicated Indian-based marketing wing for thepurpose, operating under name of Spazio Travel.

Provision of the service by an Indian company withforeign-built vehicles: Although this option has notbeen experimented with in India as yet, it seemspragmatic enough. A space travel company couldprocure spacecraft from foreign manufacturers andoffer services in India. However in order for this tohappen, some sort of regulation, certification,operating permits and development of spaceportswill be required. In this regard, India could develop

space tourism together with entities from Russia andthis may include private investments in sub-orbitalflights or private mini stations. At least from anexperience point of view, Russia currently possessesthe best knowledge in space transportation and it isthe only country that has expressed a continuinginterest in extending international cooperation inspace exploration after the expiration of the ISSAgreement. Russia is also working on new Soyuzcapsule with 5 or 6 seats.

The possibility of developing a vehicle in India byindependent means or through a joint venture: Thereis also the possibility that a space vehicle could bedesigned and built in India. Companies likeHindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) and IndianSpace Research Organization (ISRO) have broadexpertise and thus might be capable to develop suchvehicles, if they decide to do so. However, in orderto embark upon a speedy construction of spaceaerospace vehicles, these organizations might explorepossibilities of forming joint ventures with foreigncompanies/countries to develop these vehicles inIndia. But, for this to happen, the encouragementand support of the Government of India would berequired. And exercising this option might provideimmense spin-off benefits to the country from thespace travel sector.

Additionally, it will be imperative to appropriatelycategorise space tourism as aviation, space and/or tourism. The current policies of the Indiangovernment and regulatory regimes for these threesectors will need to be examined and perhaps ahybrid policy and regulatory framework put inplace to start the process in India. The foreign directinvestment policy in this context will also need tobe revisited.

3.2 SPACEPORTS AND GROUNDINFRASTRUCTURE AND FACILITIES

The locations and facilities for launching - takingoff - and receiving or landing spacecraft, aerospace


vehicles, are indispensable for space travel. Such asite or facility is called spaceport or aerospace port.Spaceports are designed as per the vehicle design, inaccordance with the mission of the vehicle, the typeof propulsion mechanism used in vehicle etc. Vehiclesdesigned to be launched horizontally for suborbitalflight will primarily be used for short duration spacetourism or point-to-point transportation of humanpassengers or cargo. On the other hand, vehicles

designed to be launched vertically for longer durationorbital flights would have higher risks associatedwith them and the energy needed to reach orbit ismuch more than that required for suborbital flight.Multi-stage vehicles are required, probablyrestricting the location of the spaceport to an isolatedarea or near the ocean due to the possibility ofdebris falling during stage separation. See Table 4below.

Table 4: Requirement and Consequences of Orbital Vehicles

3.2.1 Present Scenario

The Mojave Airport and Spaceport located inCalifornia, U.S., was the launch site ofSpaceShipOne, the first privately funded spaceflight.Developed from an existing airport, the spaceporthas a 12,500-foot (3,810-meter) runway forhorizontal launches.

Current Capabilities: Already in place are an airtraffic control tower, a terminal and hangars, a highbay building, offices, a maintenance shop, fuel servicefacilities, rocket engine test stands, and an aircraftstorage and reconditioning facility. Also availablenearby is an industrial area that includes facilitiesfor: BAE Systems, Fiberset, Scaled Composites,XCOR Aerospace, Orbital Sciences Corporation,and General Electric.

Planned Future Capabilities: A series of additionalfacilities are planned for the spaceport particularlyto support manufacturing by XCOR Aerospaceand Scaled Composites - the Spaceship Corporation.

Spaceport America (see Figure 8 below) wasconstructed in 2008 on the ground of a barren (anuninhabited wilderness that is worthless forcultivation) desert in New Mexico, the U.S. Costingan estimated US$ 225 million, it has already attractedVirgin Galactic and Up Aerospace. If completed ontime in or about 2011, Spaceport America willbecome the first purpose-built commercialspaceport, meaning a spaceport specificallyconstructed to facilitate space tourism.

Requirement Consequence

Multiple State rockers

1. Higher Energy Space port should be a isolated area depending on debris analysis

2. Higher Safety Requirements Fail safe abort procedures

High reliability engines

Reliable thermal protection systems during re-entry

3. Launch Recovery models VTVL

Air launch with very large aircraft


(Courtesy of Foster and Associates)

Figure 8: Design of Spaceport America

Current Capabilities: Major facilities that are underconstruction include a spaceport central controlfacility, airfield, maintenance and integration facility,launch and recovery complex, and a cryogenic plant.

Spaceport Singapore (see Figure 9 below) has beenpublicized since 2006. With financial assistance fromthe United Arab Emirates, Spaceport Singaporereportedly joined with Space Adventures SpaceTourism Company in a public-private partnershipto create a mixed tourist and commercial attractionsimilar to Spaceport America. However, no progresshas been reported since.

(Courtesy of Space Adventures)

Figure 9: Architectural Rendering of SingaporeSpaceport

Spaceport Sweden, located in Kiruna, Sweden, is ajoint-project of the Swedish Space Corporation, theKiruna Airport and the neighbouring ICEHOTELand business development company Progressum.With its first suborbital flight scheduled for 2012,Spaceport Sweden plans to become Europes basefor space tourism. The Swedish spaceport has alsoentered into a partnership agreement with VirginGalactic to facilitate its suborbital flights.

3.2.2 A Spaceport in India

We can infer from the above descriptions that mostof the spaceports are located near to the oceanbesides the fact that they all are in vicinity of thebusiest airport of the country concerned. Inaddition, spaceports benefit from and actually cannotfunction without an air traffic control tower,maintenance hangars, industrial area, long runwayetc. Therefore, any proposed spaceport in India musthave abundant space to accommodate all of theforegoing.

Although the vehicle to be used plays a significantrole in the selection of a suitable site for a spaceportin India the following factors are also equallyimportant and will have to be taken intoconsideration:

It is believed that future hypersonic aircraftwill require a very long runway.

Spaceports will present unique challenges innoise abatement, zoning, and passenger access,with as much as a 30- mile wide corridorsurrounding a 5-mile long runway.

A dedicated mass transit system from thenearest public access point to the spacecraftboarding area will be required.

In India, the development of a spaceport nearMumbai would be most appropriately placed sinceMumbai is a large metropolis situated close to thesea and also to one of the busiest airports in the


country. In addition, the existing airport facility isalready being expanded considerably andmodernised. Thus, there is no need to develop aspaceport right from scratch. However, a spaceportintended for use by VTVL (vertical take-off andvertical landing) spacecraft could be located at theSriharikota launch centre, which already has in placewell developed and tested infrastructure and facilities.

In addition, it should also be kept in mind that inrecent years, the Government of India has beenunfolding its policy for privatization anddevelopment of airports in India. This has led tothe emergence of airport developers including bigticket Indian companies like GVK and GMR as wellas efforts by private individuals (Non-ResidentIndians and locals) who have come together to formnew companies to develop airports; e.g. Cochinairport. In such cases, the State government typicallyholds 26% of the equity. Progressive stategovernments like that of the State of Gujarat havealso planned for the development of aerotropolisto capitalize on the aviation, tourism anddevelopment matrix. Locating a spaceport in adesignated Special Economic Zone (SEZ) will qualifyfor tax benefits although certain special concessionsmay be required.

There have been some rumours that a U.S. entitywas keen to develop a spaceport in Kerala, India.However, an ISRO official expressed scepticismwhen asked whether they were going ahead withthis project.

In any case, having regard to the experience inattracting foreign airport developers and airportoperators to participate in the consortia that are nowengaged in airport development in the country, itwould seem that India already has in place a workablemodel to attract foreign spaceport developers to formconsortia with Indian entities with equityparticipation of the relevant state governments andthe Government of India.

It may be noted that the Airports Authority of India(AAI), which previously actively operated the Delhiand Bombay airports has now left that role and hasbeen replaced by the GMR/GVK consortiumsrespectively. The AAI now functions only as an airnavigation services (ANS) provider. Attention oughtto be given to the question as to which entity willprovide the required ANS services for spacetransportation vehicles and which entity will be theregulator (ISRO or Airports Economic RegulatoryAuthority of India (AERA)?

3.3 MEDICAL FACILITIES AND TRAINING

During a suborbital or orbital flight, passengers willbe exposed to high rates of acceleration, themicrogravity environment, and again to heavygravity-loading upon re-entry. The effects of thesemultiple stressors on the human body have beenstudied extensively and they include cardiovascular,musculoskeletal and neurological disorders. Thesecan broadly be classified as follows:

3.3.1 Space Adaptation Syndrome/SpaceSickness9

Space adaptation syndrome (SAS) or space sicknessis a condition experienced by about 50% of all spacetravellers during the process of their adaptationto microgravity. It is related to motion sickness,as the vestibular system adapts to weightlessness.Changes in gravitational forces, such as the transitionto weightlessness during a space voyage,influence our spatial orientation and requireadaptation.

The vestibular system or the balancing organ presentin the ear detects either rotational or linearmovement. It consists of three semicircular canalsthat sense which way the head is turning and sac-like organs, called otoliths that sense linearmovement. The canals and otoliths are filledwith fluid. This fluid is set in motion when the


head moves, bending the hair-like structurescalled cilia, which are attached to cells; this stimulatesthe cells and communicates the movements to thebrain.

To date, about 60% of all Space Shuttle crewmembershave experienced space sickness on their first flight.It is likely generated by the ability to move aroundin larger spacecraft. As with motion sickness,symptoms can vary from mild nausea anddisorientation to vomiting and intense discomfort;headaches and nausea are often reported in varyingdegrees. Space sickness relieves itself after about 3days. Putting space tourism (i.e., both suborbitaland orbital flights) in perspective, it is apparent thatmoving around in the space vehicle will be anattraction and the trip will not last up to 3 to 5days, at least during the initial stages.

Hence, there is need for medicine to cope with spacesickness. Modern motion-sickness medications cancounter space sickness but one may suffer drowsinessand other side effects. Transdermal dimenhydrinateanti-nausea patches and other medical remedies aretypically used whenever space suits are worn byastronauts because vomiting into a space suit couldbe fatal.

3.3.2 Effects of High Gravity Loads on the HumanBody10

Human tolerance to high gravity loads depends uponthe magnitude of the gravity-force, the length oftime it is applied, the direction in which it acts, thelocation of application, and the posture of the body.To some degree, gravity-tolerance can be trainable,and there is also considerable variation in innateability between individuals. In addition, someillnesses particularly cardiovascular problems reducegravity-tolerance.

One immediate but not so severe effect of highgravity-force is difficulty in breathing, which iscaused by the pushing of the rib cage onto the lungs,

thus emptying the lungs of air. The passenger feelsfatigued and worn out as a result of the oxygendeprivation. Another effect is the variation of bloodpressure in the body. Blood is pulled down towardsthe feet, away from the brain. This causes loss ofperipheral vision. Tunnel vision is experiencedfollowed by greying out (vision is black and white).If the g-force acts longer, there is complete loss ofvision (called black out) and the passenger eventuallyloses consciousness. This is called G-LOC (LOCstands for Loss of Consciousness).

This scenario comes into consideration in the eventthat a Horizontal Take off and Landing (HTOL)or a mother ship like the WhiteKnight carries thespace vehicle. The human body thrives better atsurviving gravity-forces that are perpendicular to thespine. In general when the acceleration is forwardso that the gravity-force pushes the body backwards(colloquially known as eyeballs in), a much highertolerance is shown than when the acceleration isbackwards, and the gravity-force is pushing the bodyforwards (eyeballs out), since blood vessels in theretina appear to be more sensitive in the latterdirection. Hence, in the case of VTOL vehicles, thepassenger seats have to be designed in such a mannerthat the passengers undergo eyeballs in accelerationat all times.

3.3.3 Effects of Microgravity11

In relation to long voyages into space and stays atspace habitats in the LEO, microgravity will havesevere effects. The human body is used to acontinuous load of 1g. The muscles and bones workagainst this amount of force even if one is juststanding.

In microgravity environments, this familiar pull ofgravity is absent. This induces the muscles to atrophyquickly and lose 20% of their mass if not regularlyexercised. Bones in space atrophy at a rate of 1% amonth and can lose as much as 60% of the bone


mass. Under the pull of gravity, blood pools up inthe feet. The blood pressure in the feet can be ashigh as 200 mm Hg whereas in the brain it is 60-80mmHg. In space, the blood pressure equalizes andbecomes about 100 mmHg throughout the body.That is why astronauts can look odd: their facesfilled with fluid, puffed up, and their legs (whichcan lose about a litre of fluid each) thinned out.

But that shift in blood pressure also sends a signal.Our bodies expect a blood pressure gradient. Higherblood pressure in the head raises an alarm: The bodyhas too much blood! Within two to three days ofweightlessness, astronauts can lose as much as 22percent of their blood volume as a result of thaterrant message. This change affects the heart, too. Itis going to atrophy because it does not need to pumpso hard when there is less blood to pump.

This underscores the need for artificial gravity inspace destinations like LEO habitats. Exercise is key.Various devices have been developed to mimic thehelp that gravity provides. One Russian experimentprovides resistance by strapping jogging cosmonautsto a treadmill with bungee cords. Another promisingdevice, the Lower Body Negative Pressure (LBNP)device, attempts to mimic gravity even more closely.It provides body weight by applying negativepressure over the lower body.

If an individual suffers or has suffered fromhypertension, coronary artery disease and insulin-treated diabetes, he/she needs to undergo special testsin order to determine whether he or she is fit enoughto participate in such trips. There must be a basiclevel of fitness in regard to these health issues, whichmust be satisfied in order to allow tourists to engagein space travel.12

3.3.4 Medical Requirements for Space Tourists13

In 2006, the FAA (U.S.) published a documententitled Guidance for Medical Screening ofCommercial Aerospace Passengers.14 This paperprovides an overview of the general medical

assessments needed for orbital and suborbitalpassengers. For suborbital passengers, the documentrecommends the use of a medical historyquestionnaire relating to issues such as heart,circulatory disorders, mental disorders, surgicalhistory, and respiratory disorders. The success ofthis questionnaire is incumbent upon the spaceflightparticipants provision of honest responses.Passengers participating in suborbital aerospaceflights (or exposed to a gravity load of up to +3Gzduring any phase of the flight) need not be requiredto undergo a physical examination or completemedical laboratory testing. However, nothing in thisguidance precludes the physical examination of anyprospective aerospace passenger as deemed necessaryby the physician who is authorized by a commercialaerospace vehicle operator to conduct medicalassessments.

The neurological, cardiovascular andmusculoskeletal systems are at greater risks duringan orbital flight due to the longer duration of theflight. The screening process for passengersparticipating in orbital aerospace flights (or exposedto a gravity-loads exceeding +3Gz during any phaseof the flight) is more comprehensive and consists ofa medical history assessment, a focused physicalexamination and testing. This is due to the higher g-loads associated with re-entry from orbital flight.The medical history assessment is similar to thesuborbital questionnaire but includes additionalitems such as history of pneumothorax, kidneystones, and prior exposure to radiation. The FAArecommends that the physical examination mustinclude vital signs, ophthalmological evaluation,heart, lungs, chest, and peripheral vascular system.A battery of medical testing is recommended inaddition to the questionnaire and generalexamination. Examples of examinations include chestX-rays, resting EKG, and urine analysis. It shouldbe stated that these are only guidelines for medicalprocedures and the launch vehicle operators mighthave their own medical standards that could be


expected to be more demanding due to liabilityconcerns.

3.3.5 On-Site (Ground) Medical Services15

3.3.5.1 Preventive Medicine

Preventive medicine programmes provide supportfor spaceport personnel, spaceflight crew, andspaceflight participants. Effective prevention includesemployee-targeted training, certification, andknowledge dissemination to ensure that spaceportoperations are in compliance with applicable healthand safety standards. Frequent inspection andrehearsal of spaceport procedures are supplementalstrategies to ensure compliance with standards andimprove procedures.

3.3.5.2 Occupational Medicine

In addition to preventive medicine strategies, thespaceport will provide occupational medicineinfrastructure. This will help to maintain the healthand safety of spaceport personnel, spaceflight crew,and spaceflight participants. This infrastructureshould include programs for screening (e.g. periodicsurveillance of hearing loss in at-risk ground crew),acute management of on-site mishaps (e.g. treatmentof toxic fuel exposure), and in situ job monitoringsystems (in-flight and post-flight monitoring andmanagement of spaceflight and microgravity relatedillness).

3.3.5.3 Emergency Medical Services

Spaceport activities are inherently hazardous andthey require substantial supporting capabilities foremergency medical response. The essentialcomponents of an effective emergency medicalresponse include on-site medical services,communications, search and rescue, and mechanismsfor transfer of patients to a definitive care facility.As such, the spaceport should have the capability torespond to emergency medical events ranging fromburn injuries, toxic exposures, blast trauma to flight-related illnesses.

3.4 SPECIALIZED WORKFORCE

Expanded space commercialization will considerablychange the space era in coming years. Along withthe advent of the new space age, there will beincreasing demand for

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