RESEARCHING REGIONAL WORKFORCE GAPSAn overview and sample of the micro- and macro-level uses of demand-driven talent development

ABOUT EMSI

• EMSI provides employment data and economic analysis via web tools and customized consulting projects and reports.

• We’ve produced more than 1,000 comprehensive impact analyses for colleges and universities.

• Analyst, our labor market research tool, is used by more than 3,500 professionals in higher education, workforce, economic development and the private sector.

• Career Coach, our career guidance tool, has been implemented by many colleges, universities, and workforce boards to help jobseekers and students.

WHAT IS A REGIONAL EDUCATION SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS?Education supply gap analyses assess the current postsecondary education talent supply based on education program completion, which is then compared to the demand for occupations that align to postsecondary programs.

WHY USE A REGIONAL EDUCATION SUPPLY GAP ANALYSIS?Supply gap analyses can be used by various stakeholders for different purposes. For example:1. Community Colleges and Universities may conduct a gap

analysis to determine if programs are aligned to community and industry needs

2. Workforce Boards may use gap analyses to evaluate regional talent development across multiple institutions and seek to better align workforce development programs

3. State Departments of Education and/or Labor may use gap analyses for long-term planning, assessment, and targeting of talent development to support specific initiatives

INSIGHTS ON OVERSUPPLY AND UNDERSUPPLY

Oversupply (aka Surplus): may lead to higher attrition rates (i.e., brain drain). The region is educating a workforce that is leaving after program completion because of a lack of job opportunities.Undersupply (aka Gap): may lead to missed opportunities for economic growth and put stress on local businesses to find the necessary talent elsewhere.

POTENTIAL POLICY OPTIONSOversupply: 1. Education institutions can scale back potentially costly

programs, due to excess workforce supply;2. Economic developers and business developers have the

opportunity to court businesses employing the types of occupations found in the oversupply of program completers.

POTENTIAL POLICY OPTIONSUndersupply: 1. Education institutions can develop/market programs to

increase enrollment in the desired programs/degrees; 2. When working with dislocated workers, workforce boards

can target programs that align with “in-demand” occupations.

STEPS TO COMPLETE AN ANALYSIS

Define

Region

• Determine geographic boundaries for region• Determine education institutions to measure within region

Select

Target

Occupations

• In-demand occupation• Occupations corresponding to postsecondary ed/training• Occupations aligning to specific initiatives (e.g., STEM)

SOC-to-CIP

Crosswal

k

• Map occupations to education programs• For reference, see: www.xwalkcenter.org

Collect

Occupation Data

• Determine annual occupation demand (e.g., new and replacement jobs), or• Measure demand through some other format (e.g., historical/current job postings)

Education Completion

• Collect education completion data• Compare to occupation demand

SAMPLE OUTPUT: COLLEGE OF WESTERN IDAHO

High Demand Programs

CIP Title2008 Grads

2009 Jobs

09-'19 Change

% Change

Annual Openings

Median Hourly

Wage ($)

Gap/ Surplus

52.0408 General Office Occupations and Clerical Services 3 15,999 2,790 17% 677 $13.58 (674)

custom1 Marketing Management 14 12,185 1,971 16% 468$18.64 (454)

49.0205 Truck and Bus Driver/Commercial Vehicle Operation 17 9,872 1,628 16% 329 $13.59 (312)

52.0401 Administrative Assistant and Secretarial Science, General 0 5,887 1,197 20% 213 $14.81 (213)

52.1701 Insurance 0 3,365 1,020 30% 169 $19.88 (169)

15.1202 Computer Technology/Computer Systems Technology 7 2,585 518 20% 128 $18.63 (121)

Low Demand Programs

51.1613Licensed Practical/Vocational Nurse Training (LPN, LVN, Cert, Dipl, AAS)

136 1,218 387 32% 72 $19.38 64

51.0601 Dental Assisting/Assistant 203 881 439 50% 59 $14.44 144

[1]This program did not have any approximate match among all CIP codes. EMSI created a custom program name and CIP code match.

SAMPLE OUTPUT: MULTI-STATE (OH, PA, NY) TARGET PROGRAM ASSESSMENT

Acco

untin

g

Busin

ess A

dmin

istra

tion

Early

Chi

ldho

od E

duca

tion

Hum

an R

esou

rces

Busin

ess A

dmin

istra

tion

Man

agem

ent I

...

Prof

essio

nal W

riting

Crea

tive

Writi

ng

Seco

ndar

y Ed

ucati

on (S

cienc

e)

Jour

nalis

m

Spor

ts M

anag

emen

t

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Average Annual Openings

Average Annual Graduates and Completers

SAMPLE OUTPUT: NATIONAL ENERGY WORKFORCE

OTHER METHODS• Stay tuned! EMSI is experimenting with other ways to

measure skill gaps:• Growth of jobs and wages over time• Growth of KSAs over time• Considering job switchers and unemployed workers• Potential for shifting low-demand workers into high-demand

positions

FOR MORE INFORMATIONPlease refer to EMSI’s white paper:

http://www.economicmodeling.com/2011/06/28/addressing-regional-skill-gaps/

QUESTIONS

If you would like further information or assistance in developing your own Education Supply Gap Analysis, please contact:

Josh Wright jwright@economicmodeling.com