reserve bank of new zealand decision - impact on the market
DESCRIPTION
This Invast report contains a summary of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's decision and its impact on the market. Using our MT4 Trading platform, we explained how traders continued to back the NZD which resulted in the depreciation of the AUD over the NZD. We also discussed, how gold performs as market prices stabilise, and ways to trade copper.TRANSCRIPT
Invast Insights
Week Commencing March 10, 2014
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This week we look at the following topics:
1.0 Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision
2.0 The magic formula to stock investing
3.0 Gold bulls vs. bears as price stabilises
4.0 How to trade the copper price
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www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278
1.0 Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised its overnight cash rate from
2.5% to 2.75% last week. With inflation running well above the target band
range, it was a case of needing to raise rates in order to maintain legitimacy.
The biggest risk a central bank faces is that of lost legitimacy and credibility.
It’s always a catch 22 situation.
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The NZD rallied hard following the announcement, which was being priced as
a 95% chance by traders surveyed ahead of the announcement. It doesn’t
come as a complete surprise but we think those hoping for future aggressive
monetary policy moves from the RBNZ in isolation of other developed
economies should think twice. We now have to look forward.
The RBNZ is expected GDP to grow by 3.3% in the year to March and states
that the growth in the economy is becoming more broad based. We don’t
dismiss this at all, but at Invast we think the rally in the NZD is significant and
perhaps dangerous, now almost near parity with Australia. This will start to
have a detrimental impact to New Zealand’s exports and increase Australia’s
competitiveness. The RBNZ stated “The high exchange rate remains a
headwind to the tradables sector. The Bank does not believe the current level of
the exchange rate is sustainable in the long run.” The market hasn’t budged at
all so it will be interesting to see how the RNBZ will manage the currency
headache in the coming months. Jawboning is a dangerous game, just ask
RBA Governor Glenn Stevens.
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The RBNZ went on further to say “Prices for New Zealand’s export
commodities remain very high, and especially for dairy. Domestically, the
extended period of low interest rates and continued strong growth in
construction sector activity have supported recovery. A rapid increase in net
immigration over the past 18 months has also boosted housing and consumer
demand. Confidence is very high among consumers and businesses and hiring
and investment intentions continue to increase.”
International trade is a large part of New Zealand’s economic output,
accounting for around 24%. Most of this is also centred on agricultural
products which are sensitive to price movements. The diary industry is one of
the strongest pillars and the emergence of a huge middle class in China and
eventually India should support growth in demand for New Zealand’s
products, but there are other alternatives in the region – Australia for starters.
Tourism is also a reasonable large part of the economy, contributing around
10% of total output. So it’s obvious from these numbers that a higher
currency will start to chip away at the country’s competitiveness.
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www.invast.com.au | 1800 468 278
The Australian economy is still feeling the impact of tits currency’s rally above
parity over the past few years. Job losses from Toyota, Holden and Qantas
among many others are all compounded by the high cost of doing business.
These decisions don’t take place immediately and so there is a lagging effect.
The high NZD will start to have this lagging impact no doubt.
Perhaps the dairy industry in New Zealand is more resilient than the car or
aviation industry in Australia, but the point here is that the currency plays an
important part in determining the cost base of multinationals. The rebuilding
of Christchurch and other organic growth stories in New Zealand cannot be
completely ignored but neither can the huge appreciation in the currency.
Traders are likely to continue backing the NZD towards what we think will be
a breaking point for the currency. This might be at parity with the Australian
dollar. We don’t propose fighting the market for the time being, going short
the NZD will be a difficult trade in the short term but makes perfect sense – at
least against the AUD – over the medium term.
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Below is a chart form Invast’s MT4 trading platform which shows the
depreciation of the AUD over the NZD.
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In summary we could continue to see the AUDNZD fall in the short term
towards the A$/NZ$1.04912 range where it should find some support. If the
currency pairs remains below A$/NZ$ 1.06650 then it seems that the former
level will be in traders sights. Parity isn’t completely out of the question but
this will depend on data out of Australia. Make sure you check out
blog.invast.com.au on a daily basis to get our latest technical analysis and
short term trading insights.
2.0 The magic formula to stock investing
Investing can be really simple. Many in the market over complicate things.
Take analysts for example that spend all day long crunching numbers,
running them through their complex computer models and then publishing
reports over dozens of pages just to get to one conclusion – either a buy or a
sell. More often than not, these conclusions are wrong which makes the
whole exercise pointless. My experience in markets has taught me that the
best investments are usually the simplest. This is the most common piece
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of advice given to me by my mentors. My advice for many people over the
years is to invest in what you understand – if you don’t understand anything,
keep your money in the bank. That doesn’t mean that you should never
understand, it just means that you should learn what you are investing in
before handing over your money.
When it comes to investing in shares, there really is only one magic formula
and it’s much simpler than you think. It’s ok, you don’t need to take out your
calculator. It’s called studying the business strategy. Simple, right? Some might
be cynical but please let me explain why I think strategy is the most
important formula in evaluating a business.
The recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut brings about some
important questions. I havebeen hearing the following question from clients
over the past few months. Should investors be aiming for dividend stocks
despite the huge rally in banking shares? Is Telstra (TLS) going to $6? Should
the focus be on growth opportunities from lower lending rates? Is franking
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the swing factor? Should a premium be paid for certainty, which can
disappoint like the Coca-Cola Amatil (CCL) downgrade? Or are the miners that
are trading on big discount the way to go?
These are all very relevant questions and all very confusing from a portfolio
perspective. Let's stand back for a minute and think things through. The
answer I believe really depends on the underlying investment strategy. It all
sounds very formal, having a strategy around your investments, but it really is
the most important starting point to every investment process. Many
investors think they have a strategy, but if you ask them to define it in one
sentence, they will struggle. If you're reading this, ask this question of yourself.
The most common answer is something along the lines of: "I want a little bit
of income and capital growth. I also want to find a small-cap stock with huge
returns and not lose any money during the process.“
Basically, that's an "I want it all" approach, which we all know is not possible.
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It's not just individual investors. Many companies also fail to define their
investment strategy. I met a company at an investment briefing this week,
which is looking at putting together an IPO (initial public offering) in the real-
estate space. After an hour-long presentation and various questions from the
analyst team, I realised the presentation slides did not contain a section or
even sentence on strategy. It's something that is often overlooked.
The very intelligent and experienced managing director managed to answer
the question when asked, but not having it in the presentation slides shows
how even the most intelligent investor in the market can often overlook the
most simplistic issues. So, what's the right investment strategy? That's
something that you will need to answer for yourself. It largely depends on
circumstances, motivations, risk tolerance, goals, and the pace at which you
want to achieve them. What I plan to do here is show you an example of how
strategy setting in portfolios plays an important part in success. You can look
at fund managers, or even better, find companies that have strategised
successfully over the years.
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One of the best-performing stocks on the Australian market over a long
period of time has been Westfield Group (WDC). The company has changed
forms over the years, more so in recent history, but the focus on strategy is
something that is always front of management's mind when driving the
portfolio. It's a simple business - build and develop shopping centres, rent
them out and manage the operation.
But without a firm strategy, the business could have easily lost its way over
the years. Many property groups blew up during the crisis, particularly larger
ones in the US of comparable size. Yet Westfield managed to ride out the
downturn in good shape. The strategy is simple and summed up in one
sentence, which you will always find within the first few pages of a Westfield
presentation to the market: "To develop and own superior retail destinations in
major cities by integrating food, fashion, leisure and entertainment using
technology to better connect retailers with consumers."
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The strategy changes over time. Food, for example, is now a main priority in
the development and management of centres. People have to eat - and
Westfield wants to feed them. Will Westfield develop in remote areas?
Probably not, since the strategy says the focus will be on major cities. Are they
afraid of online shopping? Probably not, since the strategy embraces
technology that connects retailers and consumers.
So, does having a well-thought-out strategy make Westfield a good
investment? Assets are geographically diversified: Australia 41 per cent, US 40
per cent, the UK 15 per cent and other locations the remaining amount. Please
note that the Westfield Retail Trust (WRT) is a different vehicle. Total assets
under management for Westfield Group are $64.4 billion. Group occupancy is
at 97.8 per cent, with comparable growth in net operating income of 3.3 per
cent. These numbers are as of the end of financial year 30 June 2013.
The brand has become iconic globally, perhaps similar to a Mercedes, Prada or
Louis Vuitton. We often complain that the Australian market lacks such global
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consumer brands, but I would argue that we have the brand to house them all
in one location - shopping malls. We might not comprehend this in Australia
because we have become so used to walking through a Westfield mall, but
many developing economies around the world who seek to embrace Western
brands would acknowledge a Westfield mall as a sign of progress in their
economy.
Having Westfield flagship malls on Pitt Street in Sydney, at the World Trade
Centre site in New York and the Olympic site in London is no coincidence. It's
all part of the strategy. Does the gloss stack up financially? Return on
contributed equity is at 11.4 per cent - the return Westfield is earning on its
investments. It's not a great amount of money, but to me it means there is
scope for earnings growth. Remember, Westfield is not just an owner of malls,
it also develops and manages them. The development pipeline has been slow
in recent years, but that is a sign of prudence and patience. Westfield targets
12-15 per cent un-geared returns on its developments.
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If Westfield's dividend grows at 5 per cent annually over the next decade, last
year's 51-cent distribution will become 84 cents a share. It's by no means
guaranteed, but it's also worth noting that Telstra paid a 27-cent dividend in
2003 and will pay 28 cents a share this year, so the growth has been much
less. The banks have seen a much larger rate of growth in their dividends over
the period, but for investors looking at diversifying outside of the banks,
Westfield on merit deserves a closer look.
I started off with a range of different questions and ended up with a simple
investment that we all know fairly well. Even if you don't like the Westfield
proposition or it doesn't fit into your strategy, it's hard to discredit their
successful execution of their own portfolio. We can learn a lot from them. They
have a well-thought-out plan, a track record spanning many decades, solid
and well-tenanted assets, reasonable earnings growth, a commitment to
dividends and prudence in spending money. Understanding a company’s
strategy is the most important first step to investing. Even if you have been
investing for decades, ask yourself this question – do you understand the
strategy of each stock you are currently holding right now?
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We’ve recently welcomed a whole list of new clients to Invast which might
have not read our previous reports. For the new comers, we want to reiterate
some of the basics around our service. The same way of thinking articulated
above is put into practice monthly when we update our portfolios. There are
three portfolios which Invast clients receive free as part of our premium
content. Our model portfolios are aimed to give you an idea and framework
around managing your investments - they are general in natural and do not
take into consideration your personal circumstances so please keep that in
mind.
The portfolios are not benchmarked to any particular index, they are run with
an absolute return basis in mind. They will also evolve to include global
foreign exchange and index positions and so picking one stock index to
benchmark against is pointless. Common benchmarking to the ASX200 is
pointless since:
• The index is just a measure based on market capitalisation and doesn't
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really mean much other than a mathematical calculation and 2: Most
individual investors do not have to be invested 100% of the time, unlike fund
managers and so the opportunity cost of investing is being in cash.
Without knowing personal circumstances, our general portfolios are set up to
reflect time horizon. If you are 20 years old and looking at growing your
wealth your portfolio should very different to somebody aged 64 and about
to enter into retirement. Most stock tipping sheets and research services will
tell you which stock to buy but they won't tell you how much and for how
long you need to hold that investment. Even the ones that provide model
portfolios, there isn't enough emphasis on time horizon. Is a balanced
portfolio suitable for the 20 year old just as much as the 64 year old?
In a perfect world we would balance time horizon with risk tolerance etc but
then the value of the portfolios will become too complicated. The portfolios
we update on a monthly basis will just drill down on what we think - on a
general basis - each age category should be looking at (buying/selling) from
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time to time. For those 20 year olds that feel like growing up quickly, they
have the choice of adopting a shorter time frame approach and conversely for
the baby boomers looking at going into retirement, they can opt to be young
forever.
The three portfolios explained - We think most investors are in one of three
stages - wealth creation phase, wealth preservation phase and then
drawdown phase. A fully franked dividend is much more important later on in
life when income from salary becomes difficult than it is for somebody who
has a life and work expectancy of more than 40 years. Again, this is a general
statement only and individual circumstances will change. In our portfolios,
each category tries to capture:
Wealth Creation - Higher tolerance for risk, more exposure to forex and
commodity positions, greater appetite for growth and emerging
opportunities. Taking large losses is tolerable although focus is on very tight
risk mitigation methods like stop losses. Return target above 10% pa.
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Portfolio commences with $50,000.
Wealth Preservation - We have made the money and looking at smart ways to
invest it. Quality is key, income is important but not as important as certainty.
We have some tolerance for the riskier things in life but not too much as
retirement is the next phase of our life. Return target between 5-10% pa.
Portfolio commences with $50,000.
Drawdown Phase - We have created our wealth, preserved it well and now
need to find ways to generate a reliable income because we are no longer
work and need to make sure we have enough money to pay the bills as they
fall due. Return target around 5% excluding franking credits pa. Portfolio
commences with $50,000.
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3.0 Gold bulls vs. bears as price stabilises
We were recently asked by a client to state both the fundamental bull and
base case scenarios for the gold price over the coming few years. We thought
it would be interesting to share these with you this week. We will update our
gold chart levels next week – it seems as though gold is forming some solid
support from its recent lows. Clients should note that we update our view on
major market movements daily via blog.invast.com.au and hold a weekly live
market analysis session where you can ask questions, to register to this week’s
session click here.
Bulls say: Inflation is set to rise globally from historically low levels and gold is
seen as a major inflation hedge against traditional paper currencies. The
world can print an infinite amount of money but the amount of physical gold
is only becoming harder and harder to mine which means its relative value is
only set to keep rising. As governments fuel more money into the global
financial system, the next major collapse could be only around the corner
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which means that gold will once again become the preferred safe heaven
sending its price to new all-time highs.
Bears say: The world is experiencing lower growth which means price rises are
not likely to be seen like the past few decades and with deleveraging,
deflation is the largest threat to the financial system. This means gold will
continue to lose favour and traditional income producing assets, like currency,
will remain in favour. Gold carries with it inconvenient carrying costs like
storage etc. It has little utility other than a store of value – you cannot eat
gold or use it to produce much other than jewellery.
4.0 How to trade the copper price
The recent slump in copper price has been driven by much weaker than
expected Chinese data. We have previously made the case that at the time
being, China is still the key marginal consumer of copper and worse than
expected economic data – while still positive in absolute terms – has put
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pressure on the industrial commodity. We remain fairly positive on the
medium term outlook for copper, we think that China and India are still in the
early stages of their full consumption of copper and supply continues to
struggle. Copper stock piles at the London Metals Exchange have come off
their five year historic high levels and currently trading at around the 265,000
tonnes which compares to the high of 680,000 experienced in May last year.
Click here to see the full copper stockpile and private analysis via Kitco Metals
website.
While our fundamental view is positive, we think short term technical levels
should not be ignored either. We are of the view that copper will find a base
of support at around US$3/lb – many large producers like Oz Minerals (OZL)
in Australia are producing at around or above this level and so a sustained
copper price around here will see many smaller and less economic mines go
out of business, adding more pressure to global supply. Copper needs to rise
at around US$3.60/lb for the producers to start generating a reasonable
return on their capital.
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The following chart shows the copper price via our Invast MT4 trading
platform. We currently see the following short term technical levels playing
out over the next few weeks – support levels at US$2.9075/lb and then at
US$2.8645/lb with resistance from here at US$3.00/lb and at around the
US$3.10/lb. We think the price has bottomed and a long position with a stop
loss at the above mentioned support levels could generate a profitable
position over the next few months. Please note that patience is needed and
stop losses should be put into place.
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Visit our website to learn more about Meta Trader 4 and its use.
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7.0 Disclaimer
Please note that you are receiving this report complimentary from Invast Financial Services Pty Ltd (AFSL 438 283). Invast staff members may from time to time purchase securities which are included in this or future reports. The authors of this report may or may not be holding a position in the securities mentioned. Please note that the information contained in this report and Invast's website is of a general nature only, and does not take into account your personal circumstances, financial situation or needs. You are strongly recommended to seek professional advice before opening an account with us.
General Disclaimer: This newsletter contains confidential information and is intended only for the person who downloaded it. You should not disseminate, distribute or copy this newsletter. Invast does not accept liability for any errors or omissions in the contents of this newsletter which arise as a result of downloading this newsletter. This newsletter is provided for informational purposes and should not be construed as a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any financial product. Invast Financial Services Pty Ltd is regulated by ASIC (AFSL 438 283 | ABN 48 162 400 035).
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