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Page 1: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 1

Residential Developer Market Intelligence

MAJOR RESEARCH PARTNER

Q3 –2019 High Society by Geocon

Page 2: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

2 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

The aim of the Urban Icon Research Platform is to facilitate the distribution of research data & property market insights, as well as to undertake applied urban research relevant to

the development industry.

www.urbanicon.org

The Urban Icon Research Platform has four initiatives:

The Research Briefing Series showcases cutting edge urban research and innovation in a series of entertaining events.

The Urban Icon Magazine is our flagship publication that presents news and analysis by some of the property industry’s brightest minds and most influential figures.

City Life Labs is a collaborative research program focused on harnessing digital technology and cutting-edge applied research techniques to help create more Liveable, Affordable and Connected cities.

The Members’ Knowledge Hub is a private collection of research and market dashboards for the exclusive use of UDIA NSW members.

Thornton by Landcom

Page 3: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3

Silver SponsorsResearch Partners Gold Sponsors

Welcome to the Q3-2019 edition of the UDIA NSW Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) report. The quarterly RDMI aims to provide a targeted residential market performance update across the Greater Sydney, Lower Hunter, Central Coast, Illawarra and ACT housing markets.

This publication is prepared with the understanding that residential property market dynamics are complex and nuanced, and thus quality, timely market intelligence is essential for market participants supplying new products.

The publication draws upon a range of information sources including exclusive and bespoke data provided by CoreLogic - our key research partner. A key feature of the RDMI report is the inclusion of ‘bottom-up’ insights provided by our leading developer members on the state-of-play in their regional market of operational focus.

The RDMI reporting output and content inclusions continue to evolve and this edition we feature headline results from the latest Rider Levett Bucknall (RLB) Crane Index (page 20) which is an innovative lens into construction activity across the nation. The Q3-2019 RLB Crane Index highlights that the number of active cranes has increased across the last six months in Sydney, Wollongong, Central Coast and Newcastle with cranes supporting residential projects comprising 71% of the total 363 cranes recorded in NSW.

At a consumer scale, market sentiment continues to build across Greater Sydney with many residential developers reporting increased buyer enquiry and heightened sales across Q3-2019. This is especially the case with greenfield land developers. Increased purchaser activity appears to be supported by the combined impact of improved access to housing finance, falling interest rates (and the prospect of another rate cut next year) and generally positive media reporting.

Despite the upbeat media narrative, the persistence of low dwelling approvals and a drop-off in commencements suggest the supply pipeline will likely soften over the coming 2-3 years driving down future dwelling completions. There is a real prospect that demand for greenfield lots and house and land products will continue to build in the wake of the on-going challenges facing the apartment sector, stimulating the necessity to expedite rezoning and enabling infrastructure provision.

I trust the data and insights in this RDMI are of value for you and your organisation, and would welcome any feedback or thoughts about the publication emailed to [email protected]

Toby Adams

General Manager Strategy & Research

UDIA NSW

Residential Developer Market Intelligence Q3 2019

Page 4: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

4 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Median Price of New Dwellings

3 Month Change

Annual Sales Volume (New)

$916,500 3.5%New Houses

$713,500 6,3331.3%New Units

Greater Sydney

New Houses

New Units

Lower Hunter

New Houses

New Units

Illawarra

Source: CoreLogic, UDIA NSW

New Houses

New Units

ACT & Queanbeyan

New Houses

New Units

Central Coast

NSW New Houses and Units: Price & Volume

3 Month Change

9,169 0.9%0.1%

$630,000 1.1%$575,000 1761.5%

858 4.1%2.2%

$525,000 2.8%$500,000 2300%

1,038 4.1%0.2%

$675,000 2.1%$595,000 2470.8%

817 1.7%6.8%

$705,000 0.7%$455,000 2941.1%

1,066 1.8%0.3%

Page 5: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 5

New House Median Price

New Unit Median Price

NSW New Houses and Units: Price & Volume Capitals: New House and Unit Price

• UDIA NSW’s dataset of median sale price for new dwellings provided exclusively by CoreLogic recorded a retraction of 3.5% for settled new house sales for Greater Sydney in the three months ending 31 July 2019.

• This reflects a total retraction of 11.9% since data series peak in March 2018 when the median sale price for all new detached houses across Greater Sydney was $1.04M.

• Typically the median sale price for new houses is higher than the broader market median price across Greater Sydney, with an average differential of +4.5% since 1999. For this latest reporting period the differential was just +1.8% which reflects the closest arbitrage since September 2001.

• Greater Melbourne also recorded a further drop in median pricing of new houses (down 4.3% since peak) in the latest data, while price growth change across the remaining capital cities remained negligible/flat.

• New unit sales across Greater Sydney retracted 1.3% in median sales pricing for the three months ending 31 July 2019, which reflected a total retraction of 2.9% since peak (November 2017) when the median new unit price was $735,000.

• The differential between the median sale price for new units and the broader market median unit price across Sydney for the latest reporting period was +2.1% which is considerably lower than the long average of +6.2%.

• Greater Sydney’s new median unit pricing ($713,500) currently represents a +25% sale price premium over Greater Melbourne ($570,600) and +66% premium over Greater Brisbane ($430,225).

Source: CoreLogic, UDIA NSW

Page 6: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

6 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Population Growth (NSW)

Source: ABS

NSW Employment/Unemployment (Seasonally Adjusted)

Building Construction Outputs

Source: ABS

Cash Rate and Average Lending Rates

Source: RBA

Economic Snapshot

NSW recorded a net population increase of 33,500 persons in Q1-2019 which reflected a total annual increase of 114,100 persons at a growth rate of 1.43%, which is on trend with the previous 12-month period. Victoria and Queensland continue to register stronger annual population growth than NSW, at 2.08% and 1.77% respectively.

The cash rate currently sits at 0.75 per cent. The RBA hasn’t ruled out further interest rate cuts, but leading economists are divided on the issue. The lending rate for investors and owner-occupiers remains the same, with not all the cuts being passed through by the banks.

The unemployment rate dropped this quarter, with the significant hit to the construction sector lost among gains in other sectors. According SEEK’s employment index (national), construction job advertisements are down 14.7 per cent on Sept 2018.

Source: ABS

New construction continues to rally in Sydney, driven by a high volume of work in the capital city and influenced by slight increases in material costs. Melbourne continues to rise, after a faltering year in 2018. There are continuing pressures from labour costs.

Page 7: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 7

National Housing Snapshot

First Home Buyers Australia, Proportion and Loan Size

Source: ABS

Capital City Approvals (12 Months to Aug 2018 vs 12 Months to Aug 2019)

Source: ABS

Housing Affordability Ratios

Source: CoreLogic

Incentives for First Home Buyers are stimulating this section of the market, despite other financial pressures. The market downturn of the past 18 months and the possibility of a rebound has motivated a number of first home buyers. Loan sizes are starting to creep upward in line with pricing.

Despite the broadscale market correction in the last year, housing affordability ratios remain high and globally significant across the capital cities.

This highlights that housing affordability is a persistent problem unlikely to be solved by falling prices.

DA approvals have reduced across all capital cities, as the weakened housing market has reduced the volume of applications across the board, particularly in housing.

Apartments have declined the fastest, with weakening pre-sales reducing the volume of applications. The lag-effect of approval data means the market bounce in Sydney and Melbourne is yet to be reflected.

Page 8: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

8 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Approvals by District (12 months to Aug 2018 vs 12 months to Aug 2019)

Source: ABS, UDIA NSW

Sydney Annual New House and Unit Sales

Source: ABS

Sydney New House and Unit Price Movement (3 Month Change in Rolling Annual Average Price)

Source: CoreLogic

Greater Sydney

Source: Domain

Weekly Auction Clearance Rates (Sydney)

Page 9: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 9

Residential Vacancy Rate (Sydney, Monthly)

Median Days on Market Selected LGAs (12 months to Aug 2019)

Source: CoreLogic

“Improved consumer sentiment in the wake of the Federal election and the opening of the Sydney Metro Northwest has spurred a market bounce in Sydney’s north west growth corridor, with leads and sales volumes increasing four-fold since mid-2019. There has been a notable shift away from off-the-plan sales, as customers increasingly seek registered or close-to-registered stock, perhaps as a result of bank finance constraints and adjusted broker advice.

“Overall, customers are seeking developers with a strong track record and projects close to amenity. In this environment, product that is priced correctly is selling well, however some customers are only committing to contracts once incentives or discounts are included – with many wanting to feel that they haven’t missed the bottom of the cycle. Presently, the biggest challenge is valuations relative to contract values, with even new customers seeking formal loan approval prior to committing to a sale. On the vendor side, price expectations haven’t yet adjusted for the market correction, with this transition in mindset expected to take at least a further 24 months.

“In summary, the outlook for the north-west is exceedingly positive, with growing employment opportunities, infrastructure and migration all reinforcing the future prospects for land and home owners in the region.”

Steve Barlow – General Manager, Clearstate

Developer Insight

Greater Sydney Dwelling Commencements (Rolling Annual)

Source: ABS

Greater Sydney

Source: REINSW

Page 10: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

10 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Source: CoreLogic

Spotlight on Central City: LGA Market Update

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12

months)

Median days on market for

properties sold in last 12 months

Median rental yield (12 months) Average hold period

Blacktown$710,000 4,396 -17.8% 44 3.4% 11.3

$560,000 993 -15.0% 57 3.9% 8.6

Cumberland$785,555 1,491 -18.6% 55 3.4% 14.1

$550,000 1,392 -23.8% 65 4.2% 9.1

Parramatta$1,061,500 1,477 -11.9% 47 2.8% 15.2

$650,000 2,571 -15.2% 62 4.0% 8.8

The Hills$1,142,500 2,219 -7.6% 48 3.0% 11.7

$778,500 533 -6.8% 51 3.6% 8.6

Source: CoreLogic

Spotlight on Western City: LGA Market Update

Median sales price last 12

months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12

months)

Median days on market for properties sold in last 12 months

Median rental yield (12 months)

Average hold period

Blue Mountains $650,000 1,585 -10.2% 58 3.6% 10.8

$528,000 100 6.5% 52 3.5% 9.3

Hawkesbury$725,000 1,141 -7.7% 83 3.2% 12.4

$480,000 149 -19.9% 71 4.1% 9.6

Penrith$659,500 2,585 -15.7% 45 3.5% 13.6

$479,000 942 -19.1% 58 4.1% 8.7

Camden$700,000 2,236 -12.8% 54 3.9% 7.7

$555,000 76 -20.6% 58 3.7% 5.3

Campbelltown$585,000 2,062 -19.7% 41 3.8% 11.8

$420,000 505 -24.0% 61 4.7% 9.7

Fairfield $725,000 1,460 -15.2% 55 3.4% 14.6

$427,000 503 -14.0% 55 4.3% 10.7

Liverpool$745,000 2,149 -20.4% 54 3.6% 12.8

$495,603 725 -21.5% 57 4.2% 9.5

Wollondilly$705,000 891 -7.0% 72 3.4% 9.4

$410,000 38 -35.5% 33 4.7% 8.2

Greater Sydney: District Spotlight

Page 11: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 11

1. Ryde2. Canada Bay3. Strathfield4. Burwood5. Inner West6. Georges River7. Bayside8. Sydney9. Randwick10. Waverly11. Woolhara12. Mosman13. North Sydney14. Willoughby15. Lane Cove16. Hunters Hill

1. Ryde2. Canada Bay3. Strathfield4. Burwood5. Inner West6. Georges River7. Bayside8. Sydney9. Randwick10. Waverly11. Woolhara12. Mosman13. North Sydney14. Willoughby15. Lane Cove16. Hunters Hill

1

2

3 4 5

67

8

910

1 1

1213

1415

16

1

2

3 4 5

67

8

910

1 1

1213

1415

16

Source: CoreLogic

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12

months)

Median days on market for

properties sold in last 12 months

Median rental yield (12 months) Average hold period

Blacktown$710,000 4,396 -17.8% 44 3.4% 11.3

$560,000 993 -15.0% 57 3.9% 8.6

Cumberland$785,555 1,491 -18.6% 55 3.4% 14.1

$550,000 1,392 -23.8% 65 4.2% 9.1

Parramatta$1,061,500 1,477 -11.9% 47 2.8% 15.2

$650,000 2,571 -15.2% 62 4.0% 8.8

The Hills$1,142,500 2,219 -7.6% 48 3.0% 11.7

$778,500 533 -6.8% 51 3.6% 8.6

Median Sales Price Changes

Detached, Whole of Market(3 Month % Change in Median Sales Price as at 31/07/2019)

Multi Unit, Whole of Market(3 Month % Change in Median Sales Price as at 31/07/2019)

Source: CoreLogic

Page 12: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

12 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Approvals (Central Coast, Rolling Annual)

Source: ABS

Central Coast Annual New House and Unit Sales

Source CoreLogic

Central Coast Residential Vacancy Rate (Monthly)

Source: REINSW

Central Coast New House and Unit Price Movement (3 Month Change in Rolling Annual Average Price)

Source: CoreLogic

Central Coast

Approvals by Dwelling Type (12 Months to Aug-18 vs 12 Months to Aug-19)

Source: ABS

• Despite recent improvement in consumer sentiment, the Central Coast market continues to face challenges.

• Volumes of new house sales in the year to July 2019 were down 12% on the year, with new units down 26%.

• Median pricing remained relatively stable. The median sale price of new houses fell 3% over the year to July 2019 to $630,000, and the median price of new units fell 2% to $575,000.

• Approvals for new dwellings have fallen 31% over the year, with only 1,404 dwellings approved in the year to August 2019. Apartment approvals have experienced the most significant decline, falling 67% to just 320, well below the peak of 1,016 in May 2018.

Page 13: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 13

Central Coast Selected Suburb Update as at 31/07/2019

Source: CoreLogic

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12 months)

Median days on market for properties sold in last

12 months

Median rental yield (12 months)

Average hold period

Avoca Beach $1,067,500 85 -17.1% 55 2.8% 7.8

$850,000 33 -2.9% 39 3.0% 11.2

Copacabana $930,000 76 -8.4% 71 3.2% 10.8

East Gosford $750,000 55 0.0% 35 3.3% 8.5

$552,500 95 -1.0% 48 4.0% 9.8

Erina $813,000 59 -15.8% 59 3.5% 10.3

$455,000 50 6.3% 4.6% 10.0

Gosford $430,000 229 10.9% 63 4.7% 7.5

Hamlyn Terrace

$615,000 246 -25.4% 76 4.3% 7.9

Terrigal $885,000 222 14.6% 47 3.6% 10.9

$720,000 164 14.3% 78 3.9% 7.8

Wyong$490,000 100 -12.7% 71 4.5% 10.4

$355,000 32 70.0% 101 5.1% 7.2

12

3 45

6

7

8

1. Avoca Beach2. Copacabana3. East Gosford4. Erina5. Gosford6. Hamlyn Terrace7. Terrigal8. Wyong

Central Coast: Suburbs

Page 14: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

14 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Residential Vacancy Rates (Hunter, Monthly)

Source: REINSW

Lower Hunter Approvals (Rolling Annual)

Source: ABS

Approvals by LGA (Year to Aug-18 vs Year to Aug-19)

Source: ABS

Lower Hunter New House and Unit Price Movement (3 Month Change in Rolling Annual Average Price)

Source: CoreLogic

Lower Hunter• The Lower Hunter market has remained relatively

stable over the past year, considering challenging market conditions.

• Dwelling approvals fell 14% in the year to August 2019, with most of the decline coming from apartments (down 37%) and medium density dwellings (down 26%).

• The median sale price of new houses fell by 6% over the year to $525,000 and the median sale price of new units fell just 3% to $500,000.

• The difficulties facing the market are more visible in the shift in sales volumes, with total new dwelling sales down 26% in the year to July 2019. New house sales fell by 17% while new unit sales halved over the year, with just 230 new units sold in the year to July 2019.

Page 15: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 15

Cessnock

Maitland City

Port Stephens

Lake Macquarie Newcastle

↓ 0.6%

↑ 1.1%

0.0%

↑ 1.5%

↓ 0.5%

↓ 0.7%↓ 2.4%

0.0%

↓ 0.2%

0.0%

3 Month Change in Median Sales Price (Whole of Market, as at 31/07/2019)

LGA Market Update as at 31/07/2019

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12 months)

Median days on market for properties sold in last

12 months

Median rental yield (12 months)

Average hold period

Cessnock $387,500 1,278 -9.7% 57 5.1% 9.9

$285,500 145 -15.8% 63 5.4% 9.6

Lake Macquarie$577,000 3,795 -5.5% 49 4.0% 12.3

$447,000 666 -5.0% 49 4.3% 9.0

Maitland$470,000 1,719 -12.6% 48 4.6% 8.9

$340,000 156 -18.6% 67 4.9% 7.8

Newcastle$605,000 2,664 0.3% 45 3.9% 11.7

$510,000 1,011 -4.4% 51 4.2% 8.1

Port Stephens$568,750 1,570 -2.2% 62 4.0% 11.2

$420,000 514 -13.6% 75 4.3% 10.0

Lower Hunter: LGAsNewcastle and Lake Macquarie New House and Unit Sales Volumes (Rolling Annual)

Source: CoreLogic

Page 16: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

16 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

Residential Vacancy Rates (Illawarra, Monthly)

Source: REINSW

Approvals by LGA (Year to Aug-18 vs Year to Aug-19)

Source: ABS

Illawarra Approvals (Rolling Annual)

Source: ABS

Illawarra New House and Unit Price Movement (3 Month Change in Rolling Annual Average Price)

Source: CoreLogic

Illawarra

New House and Unit Sales Volumes(Rolling Annual)

Source: CoreLogic

• The Illawarra market has faced a challenging year, although green shoots are starting to show.

• Approvals fell 15% over the year to August 2019, even with approvals in Shellharbour rising by 35%. As with other areas of the Greater Sydney Megaregion, apartment approvals have experienced the most significant decline - falling 29% over the year.

• New dwelling sales fell 15% in the year to July 2019, down 45% from the peak in August 2015. Apartment sales make up the majority of the decline, falling 18% over the year and 71% since peak.

• The median sale price of new dwellings remained relatively stable over the year. New house prices fell just 4%, and new unit prices fell by 2%.

Page 17: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 17

WollongongKiama

Shellharbour

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

Shoalhaven

LGA Market Update as at 31/07/2019

↓ 4.2%

↑ 1.9%

↓ 1.5%

↓ 3.7% ↑ 0.7%

0.0%

“Pockets of the housing market continue to rise, primary interest is in completed new homes and existing real estate where there is the highest demand as this solution allows first home buyers to jump through the bank finance constraints and get into their own home. Investors, downsizers and luxury up-sizers are creating strong demand for land purchasers where creating a lifestyle solutions and dream houses has seen increased activity since the federal election with improved consumer sentiment”

Andrew Guesdon – House & Land Director, Wisdom Homes

↓ 2.8%

↓ 1.7%

Developer Insight

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12 months)

Median days on market for properties sold in last

12 months

Median rental yield (12 months)

Average hold period

Kiama $845,000 391 1.3% 53 3.6% 12.8

$650,000 134 23.4% 55 3.8% 7.6

Shellharbour$630,000 1,157 -9.0% 63 4.1% 10.4

$493,500 319 -7.9% 77 4.5% 9.7

Shoalhaven$555,000 2,940 -3.6% 98 3.7% 10.8

$435,000 313 -1.2% 99 3.9% 8.4

Wollongong$705,000 2,337 -9.1% 57 3.7% 12.1

$565,000 1,230 0.6% 61 3.7% 9.0

3 Month Change in Median Sales Price (Whole of Market, as at 31/07/2019)

Illawarra: LGAs

Page 18: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

18 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

ACT & Queanbeyan Approvals (Rolling Annual)

Source: ABS

Weekly Auction Clearance Rates (ACT)

Source: CoreLogic

ACT New House and Unit Price Movement (3 Month Change in Rolling Annual Average Price)

Source: CoreLogic

ACT & QueanbeyanACT New Dwelling Sales Volumes (Rolling Annual)

Source: CoreLogic

• Despite price stability, the ACT Market has faced difficult market conditions over the last year with an ongoing decline in approvals and sales volumes.

• Approvals fell by 21% over the year to August 2019, primarily due to apartment approvals falling by 39%.

• New house sales declined by 14% from July 2018, with only 1,066 new houses sold in the year to July 2019. New unit sales experienced a greater decline, falling 31% over the year to 294.

• The price of new dwellings has remained stable over the year to July 2019, with the median price of new houses rising by 2% and the median price of new units rising by 6%.

Page 19: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 19

3 Month Change in Median Sales Price (Houses), as at 31/07/2019

LGA Market Update as at 31/07/2019

Source: CoreLogic

Source: CoreLogic

Queanbeyan Urban (NSW)

ACT

0%

Median sales price last 12 months

# of listings last 12 months

12 month change in total listings (12 months)

Median days on market for properties sold in last

12 months

Median rental yield (12 months)

Average hold period (years)

ACT$665,000 5200 -9.1% 41.0 4.5% 10.9

$425,000 3394 1.4% 54.0 5.8% 8.9

Queanbeyan$638,000 904 -6.1% 57 4.6% 9.0

$331,000 471 -20.9% 56 5.2% 9.3

ACT & Queanbeyan

Page 20: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

20 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

RLB Crane Index, Q3 2019

The RLB Crane Index is a measure of active cranes in urban centres around Australia. This data point provides unique insight into the future of the national construction pipeline.

The growth in the number of active residential cranes in the Greater Sydney Megaregion, along with the ‘green shoots’ of consumer sentiment, show the potential for a more positive story for the residential sector in the coming quarters.

Number of Active Residential*

Cranes

Number of Other Active Cranes

Sydney 233 10.3%860.4%6 Month Change 6 Month Change

Central Coast 13 0%18.3%

6 Month Change 6 Month Change

Newcastle 10 100%2100%6 Month Change 6 Month Change

Wollongong 13 5

Canberra 23 211.5%6 Month Change

*Includes mixed use

Sydney Central Coast

Wollongong CanberraNewcastle

0%6 Month Change

First Time Reported On

First Time Reported On

Page 21: Residential Developer Market Intelligence · UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 3 Research Partners. Gold Sponsors Silver Sponsors ... capital cities

UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 21

THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA (UDIA) IS THE PEAK BODY REPRESENTING THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA.

UDIA NSW OFFICE

Officially established in 1963, UDIA NSW has grown to become the leading industry body representing the interest of

the NSW property development sector.

UDIA NSW aims to secure the viability and sustainability of the urban development industry for the benefit of our

members and the communities they create by advocating for more liveable, affordable and connected cities.

We represent the leading participants in the industry and have more than 500 member companies across the entire

spectrum of the industry including developers, institutional investors, third party logistics providers, financiers,

builders, suppliers, architects, engineers, lawyers, town planners, academics and state and local government bodies.

A quarter of these members are based in regional NSW.

UDIA NSW members are represented by an elected council of 13 leading industry practitioners who are responsible

for the strategic direction of the Institute. UDIA NSW also has an extensive committee and regional chapter structure

that involves more than 300 of the development industry’s key stakeholders in policy formulation.

UDIA NEW SOUTH WALES 02 9262 1214

LEVEL 5, 56 CLARENCE ST. SYDNEY, NSW 2000 www.udiansw.com.au

[email protected]

KEY CONTACTSSTEVE MANN CEO

[email protected]

ANTHONY NICOLAOU

GENERAL MANAGER SALES AND MARKETING

KYLIE PRINCE GENERAL MANAGER

OPERATIONS

TOBY ADAMS GENERAL MANAGER

STRATEGY AND RESEARCH

RDMI EDITOR

ANGUS MANN RESEARCH OFFICER

Please direct enquiries to: [email protected]

About UDIA NSW

MIA KWOK MEDIA AND

COMMUNICATIONS MANAGER

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22 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

The aim of the Urban Icon Research Platform is to facilitate the distribution of research data & property market insights, as well as to undertake applied urban research relevant to

the development industry.

www.urbanicon.org

The Urban Icon Research Platform has four initiatives:

The Research Briefing Series showcases cutting edge urban research and innovation in a series of entertaining events.

The Urban Icon Magazine is our flagship publication that presents news and analysis by some of the property industry’s brightest minds and most influential figures.

City Life Labs is a collaborative research program focused on harnessing digital technology and cutting-edge applied research techniques to help create more Liveable, Affordable and Connected cities.

The Members’ Knowledge Hub is a private collection of research and market dashboards for the exclusive use of UDIA NSW members.

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UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019 23

THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT INSTITUTE OF AUSTRALIA (UDIA) IS THE PEAK BODY REPRESENTING THE URBAN DEVELOPMENT

INDUSTRY IN AUSTRALIA.

UDIA NSW OFFICE

Officially established in 1963, UDIA NSW has grown to become the leading industry body representing the interest of

the NSW property development sector.

UDIA NSW aims to secure the viability and sustainability of the urban development industry for the benefit of our

members and the communities they create by advocating for more liveable, affordable and connected cities.

We represent the leading participants in the industry and have more than 500 member companies across the entire

spectrum of the industry including developers, institutional investors, third party logistics providers, financiers,

builders, suppliers, architects, engineers, lawyers, town planners, academics and state and local government bodies.

A quarter of these members are based in regional NSW.

UDIA NSW members are represented by an elected council of 13 leading industry practitioners who are responsible

for the strategic direction of the Institute. UDIA NSW also has an extensive committee and regional chapter structure

that involves more than 300 of the development industry’s key stakeholders in policy formulation.

UDIA NEW SOUTH WALES 02 9262 1214

LEVEL 5, 56 CLARENCE ST. SYDNEY, NSW 2000 www.udiansw.com.au

[email protected]

KEY CONTACTSSTEVE MANN CEO

[email protected]

ANTHONY NICOLAOU

GENERAL MANAGER SALES AND MARKETING

KYLIE PRINCE GENERAL MANAGER

OPERATIONS

TOBY ADAMS GENERAL MANAGER

STRATEGY AND RESEARCH

RDMI EDITOR

ANGUS MANN RESEARCH OFFICER

Please direct enquiries to: [email protected]

About UDIA NSW

MIA KWOK MEDIA AND

COMMUNICATIONS MANAGER

Wirraway by Defence Housing Australia

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24 UDIA NSW, Residential Developer Market Intelligence (RDMI) Q3 2019

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