Residential PropertyMarket Overview

Tax Year 2019

Houston EconomyKey metrics to healthy Houston housing market: • Home inventory• Home starts• Sales volume• Sales prices

Home Inventory• According to the Houston Association of Realtors (HAR), the inventory of available homes was 3.7 months in January 2019

• Increased from 3.2 months supply in January 2018 • 3.7 months of inventory is also the national average

Home Inventory

 $‐

 $1

 $2

 $3

 $4

 $5

 $6

 $7

 $8

 $9

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Billion

s

Housing Starts

Building Count New Construction Value

Sales Volume

According to HAR, sales volume for single family residential properties increased 3.8 percent from 2017 to 2018 

• 2017:  79,143 units• 2018:  82,144 units

Sales Prices• Both the average and median sales prices continued to rise• Average sales price increased 2.6% for the full year sales:

• 2017:  $291,340• 2018:  $298,982

• Median sales price increased 3.3% for the full year sales:• 2017:  $229,900• 2018:  $237,500

Hurricane Harvey• Conducted a driving review of almost 240,000 homes to identify those damaged in the storm • September to mid‐November• Identified almost 70,000 damaged homes

• Visited all damaged homes between January and March for tax year 2018 

• More than 42,500 homes still damaged under review for tax year 2019

2019 Outlook and InsightsNatural Disasters:• Impact of new legislation on HCAD• New FEMA rules and building codes affecting the housing market• HCAD will reinspect flood property for next 3‐4 years

Interest Rates:• Increase in interest rates can have a cooling effect on economy and housing market

• Federal reserve raised the interest rates 7 times in the last two years• Fed funds rate currently 2.5%

Tax Policy:• New federal tax policy impact on the housing market• “Salt” provisions may adversely affect the higher end of housing market

2019 Residential Noticing

• Residential noticing began Friday, March 8th

• Single family homes including townhomes, condos, and mobile homes were noticed

• Some flood related property were noticed with first batch, but most is still under review

• Approximately 932,000 accounts noticed the first weekend• Another 25,000 accounts noticed the second weekend

2019 Single‐family Increase, Decrease, No Change(as of March 18)

Market Value ParcelsPercent of Parcels

No Change Increase DecreaseUnder 80,000 82,043  28.0% 69.7% 2.2%80,000 ‐ 149,999 233,859  9.5% 87.4% 3.1%150,000 ‐ 249,999 353,496  6.2% 86.9% 6.9%250,000 ‐ 499,999 181,411  10.1% 72.1% 17.8%500,000 ‐ 999,999 43,715  11.4% 72.1% 16.5%1 million and up 20,846  7.0% 77.7% 15.3%Total 915,370  10.1% 81.6% 8.3%

Tax Year 2018 77.3% 17.1% 5.6%

2019 Single‐family Percent Change(as of March 18)

Market Value

Average Percent of ChangeOverall Percent of 

ChangeReappraisal Onlywith New 

ConstructionUnder 80,000 17.73% 18.12% 15.64%80,000 ‐ 149,999 15.19% 16.55% 13.35%150,000 ‐ 249,999 10.38% 19.34% 9.91%250,000 ‐ 499,999 7.70% 25.18% 8.12%500,000 ‐ 999,999 7.73% 16.03% 8.18%1 million and up 8.08% 11.77% 9.38%Total 11.56% 19.34% 9.63%