RESILIENCE SYSTEMS ANALYSISHow to analyse risk and build a roadmap to resilience

What does a resilience systems analysis do?

• Translates political will and theory into better programming on the ground

• Based on a whole-of-system approach (trends, not events….)

How?

• Pooling existing knowledge, information, datasets

• Bringing together 3 x experts:–Experts in risks–Experts in systems–Decision makers

The scope

• The resilience of what system, for who, to what risks, over what timeframe?

An example:• The resilience of the well-being of

urban communities in Egypt to geo-political, natural, climate and economic shocks, over the next three years

The risks…

• Geo-political (social unrest, ethnic tensions etc…)

• Economic (price shocks, inflation, etc…)• Natural/climate (earthquakes, water

salination, etc)

• Idiosyncratic (eg sickness, unemployment, etc) and covariate (eg drought, Ebola)

• Over the next three years

The risk heatmap

The system

Physical capital

Social capital

Political capital

Natural capital

Human capital

Financial

capital

Eg essential household items

Eg formal/ informal conflict management mechanisms

Eg access to those in powerEg land for

agriculture

Eg health

Eg savings

Absorb, adapt, transform…

Prioritisation the roadmap

• Time-frames: Short/medium/long term• Power dynamics• Different layers of society

• Eg Drought…. Where is it best to work?– with families to absorb shocks– with communities to adapt livelihoods– with local authorities to adapt market access– with states to transform economic policy– Or a mix of these?

What does the analysis help us do?

• Prioritise planning and programming based on risk

• Understand whole-of-system resilience

• How to work at different layers of society … to achieve the same goal

• Who to work with, based on power dynamics

• Buy-in from key decision makers

Next steps for us

• Somalia – 24/25 February• Others –

Bangladesh/Burundi/Somalia+ etc• Training – USAID staff in Asia in May• Simple economic model – to support

“layers of society” decisions• Measurement - linking up with

INFORM