resilient cities - peak oil and climate change - vancouver board of trade nov 2010

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Dynamic Cities: Planning for Peak Oil and Climate Change Bryn Davidson B.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

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Bryn Davidson's presentation to the Vancouver Board of Trade, November 2010.

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Dynamic Cities:Planning for Peak Oil and

Climate Change

Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

Page 2: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Peak Oil and

Climate Change

Page 3: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
Page 4: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

US Domestic Oil Production

Page 5: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
Page 6: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

US Energy Information Agency

Page 7: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

US Energy Information Agency

Page 8: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

US Energy Information Agency

Page 9: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

US Energy Information Agency

Page 10: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Peak Oil

+ Climate Change

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Page 11: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Make resilient investments in infrastructure

Create resilient city systems

12

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Page 12: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Make resilient investments in infrastructure(invest in projects that retain their value across many futures)

Create resilient city systems

12

Scenario Planning!

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Page 13: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Make resilient investments in infrastructure

Create resilient city systems(that remain functional, and fair, through transition shocks)

12

Prepare for Likely Transition Shocks

The Dynamic City = Sustainable and Resilient

Page 14: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

=

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

Page 15: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Bundle of strategies for reducing emissions.

Page 16: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Only ~15% of strategies address oil dependence

Page 17: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions

?

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

‘Peak Oil’ is missing from the conversation.

Page 18: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

BC: ‘Gateway’ Highway Expansions

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

Page 19: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Why are we only planning for a future that looks like the past?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

Page 20: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Do these projects still have value in a future defined by peak oil and climate change?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

Page 21: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

WA: Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel

Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?

San Antonio: 410 Expansion

Page 22: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Will they become stranded assets?Are they diverting resources from more important projects?

Page 23: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 24: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Oil Depletion Scenario: Conventional OilAvailable to U.S. Consumers

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 25: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Total miles driven using oil-based diesel fuel

Example: Freight Truck Miles

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 26: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 27: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Tar Sands, Shale, Coal Liquids Etc.

Page 28: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Total Transportation Capacity

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 29: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Required Road Capacity: Peak Roads?

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 30: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Local Population Growth Scenario: including migration driven by peak oil and climate change

Population

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 31: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Oil Depletion (Fuel rationed by

increasing prices)

B.A.U. (Population and economic

growth)

Today

Mobility Shortage vs. Today’s Standards

Population

Widening Mobility Gap

Modeling a future with both peak oil and climate change

Page 32: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
Page 33: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010
Page 34: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Concern for climate change is critical, but what really drives change ‘at scale’?

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

Page 35: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

= Transition Shocks

Page 36: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Is this an investment that has value in a post-oil world?Does it contribute to a resilient transportation system?

- Price Spikes- Recession- Rationing- Shortages

= Transition Shocks

Page 37: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

The Dynamic City = ‘Sustainable’ + Resilient

Page 38: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Planning Dynamic Cities:

1. Throw away your extrapolated forecasts

2. Get your team up to speed on peak oil and climate change

3. Create a Transition Scenario for your region / organization (Bundle together multiple assumptions)

4. ‘Stress Test’ Projects- Test your project’s value across multiple scenarios- Test your technology and funding through transition shocks

5. Start talking about the ‘Resilient Post-Carbon Economy’- Prioritize projects reducing emissions and oil dependence- New low carbon trade links within the Cascadia mega-region- Plan as if we’re at ‘peak roads’

Page 39: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Investing in electrified rail (skytrain, streetcars, freight rail)

Page 40: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Bike Lanes: Facilitating ‘Post-Carbon’ Consumer and Employee Mobility

Page 41: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

‘Net Positive’ BusinessAs the business grows, regional oil consumption goes down

Page 42: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement

Page 43: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

‘Post Carbon’ Goods Movement

All electric goods movement

Rail to Electric cross docking(False Creek Flats)

Page 44: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

‘Eco-density’Laneway Housing

Page 45: Resilient Cities - Peak Oil and Climate Change - Vancouver Board of Trade Nov 2010

Bryn DavidsonB.Eng. M.Arch. LEED-AP

[email protected]

604.728.0606