Danielle ShannonNorthern Institute of Applied Climate Sciencewww.ForestAdaptation.org/water

Responding to Climate Change Impacts in Forested Watershed Management

Forests & wetlands Water quality

Water quantity Infrastructure & facilitiesAquatic habitat

A changing climate will affect the condition and quality of forested

watersheds

Roads

• Interactions can intensify change

• Effects are cumulative

Watershed (conceptual)

Wetlands

Riparian

Roads

Crossings

Forest health decline (stressed) Invasive species

Riparian - pests

Adaptation MitigationPeople

Greenhouse GasesImpacts

How do we respond to climate change?

Adaptation actions are designed to specifically address climate change impacts and vulnerabilities in order to meet

goals and objectives

Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in preparation or in response to climate change.

Ecosystem-based adaptation activities that build on sustainable management, conservation, and restoration.

Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in preparation or in response to climate change.

Adaptation is the adjustment of systems in preparation or in response to climate change.

• What do you value?• How much risk are you willing to tolerate?

If you want a single “answer” for how to respond to climate change, it’s

“It depends”

It depends on where you are working and what you’re trying to achieve.

Adaptation Concepts

Reduce impacts/ Maintain current

conditions

Forward-looking/ Promote change

Resistance Transition(Response)

Resilience

Manage for Persistence:Ecosystems are still recognizable as being the same system (character)

Manage for Change:Ecosystems have fundamentally changed to something different

Millar et al. 2007, Stein et al. 2014, Fisichelli et al. 2016

Millar et al. 2007

TRANSITION

Watersheds + forests + climate change

Can land management enhance the ability of a system to cope with climate change

and meet your goals and objectives?

Making a plan!

• Designed for a variety of land owners with diverse goals

• Works at project-level

• Centers around manager’s expertise, and judgement

• Does not make recommendations

AdaptationWorkbook.org

Forest Adaptation Resources

Adaptation Workbook: Decision-support toolProvides “structured flexibility”

1. DEFINE, management

objectives.

2. ASSESS climate impacts and

vulnerabilities.

3. EVALUATE management

objectives given vulnerabilities.

4. IDENTIFY adaptation

approaches and tactics.

5. MONITOR and evaluate

effectiveness actions.

Vulnerability assessments,

scientific literature, and other resources

Menu of Adaptation Strategies & Approaches

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

Adaptation Menus of Strategies and Approaches

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543 and www.AdaptationWorkbook.org

A “menu” of possible actions that allows you to decide what is

www.AdaptationWorkbook.org/strategies

Adaptation Menus of Strategies and Approaches

www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/40543 and www.AdaptationWorkbook.org

A collection of plausible adaptation actions that is:

• Specific to a discipline

• Organized into a tiered hierarchy

• Thorough and comprehensive (including opposing ideas!)

www.AdaptationWorkbook.org/strategies

Adaptation Strategies for Natural Resource ManagementAdaptation topics = a variety of perspectives

• Forests• Urban forests• Agriculture

Forested watershedsTribes & cultural resources

• Carbon management• Non-forested Wetlands*• Wildlife*• Coastal habitats*, Grasslands*,

Glacial Lakes, *Resources in development

forestadaptation.org/strategies

Adaptation Resources: Forests• Forest management focused on habitat quality, tree species, landscape

connectivity and more.• Vegetation focus

Forest & Ecosystem Management

• Sustain ecological functions• Reduce biological stressors• Reduce risks related to disturbance• Maintain/create refugia• Enhance structural diversity• Increase redundancy• Promote landscape connectivity• Enhance genetic diversity• Facilitating change, and community

transitions

FOREST Adaptation Strategies

Swanston et al. 2016 (2nd edition) www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/52760

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches

Adaptation Resources: Forests + Water• Forest management for the maintenance/enhancement of water

resources in a watershed• Resources now reflect a hydrologic & watershed perspective

Water quality

Water quantityInfrastructure &

facilities

Aquatic habitat

Shannon, P.D., et al 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.005

Forest & Ecosystem Management

Adaptation Strategies and Approaches focus on these topics

Design and modify infrastructure to accommodate future conditions

Accommodate altered hydrologic processes

Watershed Adaptation Strategies: Big ideas

Shannon, P.D., et al 2019. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2019.01.005

Sustain fundamental hydrologic processes

Maintain and enhance water quality

Facilitate forest ecosystem adjustments through species transitions

Maintain or restore forests and vegetative cover

Goal: Develop local examplesof adaptation

Forestadaptation.org/demos

+350Real-world projects

using the Adaptation Workbook

Adaptation Examples!

Adaptation in the wildExamples: Coping with too much water

• Shorter, warmer winters • Increase frequency of rain-on-snow events• Reduced seasonal snowpack depth and retention

Using downed wood to deflect & infiltrate snowmelt runoff to trout stream• Retain trees better adapted to future conditions• Plan for more freq. winter melting & runoff

• Enhanced infiltration, protect snowpack, increase retention of water on-site

More info at: ForestAdaptation.org/MNdnrKnifeRiver

Transition/Resilience

Strategy 5. Accommodate alteredhydrologic processes

Approach 5.4: Respond to or prepare for excessive overlandflows (surface runoff)

Examples: Coping with too much water• High intensity rain events• Flashy high velocity streamflow• Warmer summers, reduced thermal refugia

Improved structures:• Increases hydrologic connectivity • Provides Aquatic Organism passage

• Increases resilience to extreme storms & conveys lower low flows

More info at: forestadaptation.org/TU-ne

Adaptation in the wild

Approach 6.1: Reinforce infrastructure to meet expected conditions

Strategy 6: Design and modify infrastructure to accommodate future conditions

Resilience

• Create custom adaptation plans using Adaptation Workbook

• Regional or topical focus

In-person 1-2 day interactive workshop

Online • Distance learning course• 8 weeks – 1 session/week• Access to adaptation coaching

Join us for a training! In-person or online

forestadaptation.org/trainingUpcoming Course:

Winter 2020!

Uncertainty is the new certaintyIncorporate it, don’t succumb to decision paralysis

Same job, new challengesSimilar stressors, but new patterns and agents

Adapt based on values and risk toleranceThink about place and objectives within the context of risk and values

Document rationale and intent…then share your plan!

Closing Thoughts…

Danielle Shannondshannon@mtu.edu

https://ourwatershed.ca/resources/support/for-municipalities/

https://ourwatershed.ca/resources/support/for-municipalities/

Actions for Adaptation…are

Connect the dots! - What are your management goals and

objectives?- How might your ecosystem be uniquely

affected by climate change?- How are your goals challenged? Are they

still feasible?- What specific actions can you take to

address specific impacts?

Actions for Adaptation…are

“Climate-informed” decisions still reflect- Restrictive mandates, plans, laws, etc.- Public perception- Costs- Values- Other barriers to change

…but not always different

Prioritization: based on the vulnerability of resources and on the likelihood that actions will be effective in reducing vulnerability.

"No regrets" decisions: Actions that result in a wide variety of benefits under multiple scenarios and have little or no risk.

Precautionary actions: Where vulnerability of an ecosystem is high, taking precautionary actions to reduce risk and protect in the near term.

Managing for variability and uncertainty: Increasing climate variability will lead to equal or greater impacts that will need to be addressed.

Managing multiple stressors: Where impacts from changing climate create ecological disturbances (wildlife, flood, insects and disease).

Image: NOAA Sea Grant PA

Taking action

Adaptation actions* may not look that different from current actions, especially in the near term.

Same actions–Small “tweaks”

New & different

wild & crazy

Slide Number 1Slide Number 2Slide Number 3How do we respond to climate change?Slide Number 5Slide Number 6Slide Number 7Slide Number 8Adaptation ConceptsSlide Number 10Watersheds + forests + climate changeMaking a plan!Forest Adaptation ResourcesAdaptation Workbook: Decision-support toolAdaptation Menus of Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Menus of Strategies and ApproachesAdaptation Strategies for Natural Resource ManagementAdaptation Resources: ForestsAdaptation Resources: Forests + WaterWatershed Adaptation Strategies: Big ideasSlide Number 24Adaptation Examples!Adaptation in the wildAdaptation in the wildJoin us for a training! In-person or onlineClosing Thoughts…Slide Number 30Slide Number 31Actions for AdaptationActions for AdaptationTaking actionSlide Number 35