responding to climate change in moldova’s agricultural...

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INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED

Responding to Climate Change in

Moldova’s Agricultural Sector:

Impact Assessment

on CropsAna Iglesias

April 2011


18 sites

12 scenarios

10 years / scenario

6 crops

4 variables / crop

8 management strategies

35 people

1 country, Moldova

2


Acknowledgements: 4 stakeholder groups + Institutions

1 Research field cropsBoris Boincean, FC Inst “Selectia”

Anatol Meleca, I Phyto“Porumbeni”

Sandu Tatiana, Nat C Plant Varieties

Vladimir Rosca, Nat C Plant

Varieties

Vladimir Todiras, Inst PP & Org Farm

2 Research horticulture

and viticultureGrigore Marian, Moldovan Agr Univ

Maria Pintea, Inst of Horticulture

Tudor Cazac, Inst of Wine and Vine

Victor Bucarciuc, Inst Horticulure

3 Policy Ion Sula, M. Agr &Food

Leonid Volosciuc, Inst Plant

Protection and Organic Farming

Silvia Mistret, Inst Phy “Porumbeni”

Tamara Roznerita, M Agr &Food

Veronica Matenco, M Agr &Food

4 Technical aspects Dorian Pasat, FC Inst “Selectia”

Elena Zbank, , FC Inst “Selectia”

Ivan Sicora, , FC Inst “Selectia”

Marin Cebotari, , FC Inst “Selectia”

Sergiu Gavrilas, , FC Inst “Selectia”

Vadim Cuzeac, , FC Inst “Selectia”

5

M. Agr & Food, Hydromet

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED 7

Summary

OverallSome aspects of climate

change such as longer growing

seasons and warmer

temperatures may bring

benefits, …..

…..but there will also be a

range of adverse impacts,

including reduced water

availability, more variability

and more drought

Potentially strong

distributional effects


Possible

effect

Confidence

level

Optimal location of

crops (zones)change high

Crop productivity change high

Irrigation

requirementsincrease high

Damage by

extremesincrease medium

Env and soil

degradation, pest &

diseases damage

increase medium

Summary


Summary

9

NorthIncreased potential for

spring wheat and maize

for fodder

Potential pasture

decrease due to reduced

precipitation in summer

Marginal areas may

become very vulnerable

due to lack of adaptive

capacity0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Brisceni

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Soroca

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Camenca

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Ribnita

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Balti

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Falesti


Summary

CentralPotential increase of crop

suitability for all field

crops, given adequate

water supply

Decrease productivity in

some high quality crops

Need for supplemental

irrigation for all crops

irrigation

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Bravicea

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Cornesti

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Dubasari

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Codrii

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Baltata

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Chisinau


Summary

SouthIncreased risk of drought

Potential increase of crop

productivity for all field

crops, vegetables and

grapes, given adequate

water supply

Decrease productivity in

some high quality crops

Need for supplemental

irrigation for all crops

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Tirastopol

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Leova

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Stefan Voda

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Comrat

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Ceadir-Lunga

0

25

50

75

100

125

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 910

11

12

mmC Cahul


The choice of crops

Wheat most widespread

Maize silage, grain, 3rd area

Alfalfa & pasture livestock

feed (important sector)

Grapes high value

Apples the most important

fruit product

Walnuts important for

mitigation


atmosphere

soil

crop

management

crop models


Limitations, uncertainty, complexity

16

uncert

ain

ty

complexity

model theory

(architecture)

model

parameter

(calibration)


450

550

650

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Bricen

i

Soro

ca

Cam

enca

Rib

nita

Balti

Falesti

Bravicea

Co

rnesti

Du

basari

Co

drii

Baltata

Ch

isinau

Tiraspo

l

Leova

Stefan V

od

a

Co

mrat

Cead

ir-Lun

ga

Cah

ul

Monthly Total Precip (mm)Avg Mean Temp (C)Avg Max Temp (C)Avg Min Temp (C)Avg Solar Duration (h)

Tem

per

atu

re (C

)So

lar

du

rati

on

(h)

Pre

cip

itat

ion

(mm

)

Northern Central Southern

Current climate


Changes in growing season precipitation

18

-250

-200

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

BASE

SC01

SC02

SC03

SC04

SC05

SC06

SC07

SC08

SC09

SC10

SC11

SC12

Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)mm

ScenariosScenarios

-150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

BASE

SC01

SC02

SC03

SC04

SC05

SC06

SC07

SC08

SC09

SC10

SC11

SC12

Dryland: Growing season precipitation changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)mm

ScenariosScenarios

maize

wheat


Variability of maize yield: high impact 2040s scenario

0 - 25 Perc.

25 - 75 Perc.

75-100 Perc.

50th Perc.

Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha)

Treatment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Mat yie

ld k

g/h

a

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

0 - 25 Perc.

25 - 75 Perc.

75-100 Perc.

50th Perc.

Box Plot of Yield at maturity (kg [dm]/ha)

Treatment

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Mat yie

ld k

g/h

a8000

7500

7000

6500

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

rainfed

irrigated


Changes in rainfed crop productivity

20

maize

wheat

-3500

-3000

-2500

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

BASE

SC01

SC02

SC03

SC04

SC05

SC06

SC07

SC08

SC09

SC10

SC11

SC12

Dryland: Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)kg/ha

ScenariosScenarios

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

BASE

SC01

SC02

SC03

SC04

SC05

SC06

SC07

SC08

SC09

SC10

SC11

SC12

Dryland: Yield changes from baseline (sites 1 to 18)kg/ha

ScenariosScenarios


Yield changes (summary, medium scenario)

In all zones,

the crops in the Reut

basin are

more at risk (up to -30%)

Irrigated/ Rainfed

Crop Northern Central Southern

Irrigated

Maize -8% -6% -9%

Wheat -14% -30% -34%

Alfalfa -7% -13% -18%

Grapes -4% -3% -5%

Apples 0% 0% -3%

Vegetables -5% -9% -13%

Rainfed

Maize -9% -3% -10%

Wheat -36% -38% -45%

Pasture -17% -22% -19%

Alfalfa -13% -18% -12%

Grapes -4% -3% -2%

Apples -2% -4% 3%

Vegetables -9% -13% -9%

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED22

The final impacts depend on:

• Heat stress and drought in

summer

• Floods, water-logging

• Environmental degradation


• Decline of high quality crops

• Regulations may limit opportunities


Water demand for irrigation: Balti, 4 crops

24

maize wheat

pasture grapevine

0

100

200

300

400

500

1

s00

s01

s02

s03

s04

s05

s06

s07

s08

s09

s10

s11

s12

maize total irrgi damand(mm/yr)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1

s00

s01

s02

s03

s04

s05

s06

s07

s08

s09

s10

s11

s12

wheat total irrgi damand(mm/yr)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1

s00

s01

s02

s03

s04

s05

s06

s07

s08

s09

s10

s11

s12

pasture total irrgi damand(mm/yr)

0

100

200

300

400

500

1

s00

s01

s02

s03

s04

s05

s06

s07

s08

s09

s10

s11

s12

grapevine total irrgi damand(mm/yr)


Irrigation water demand projections, total

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

base

low

medium

high

millions of cubic meters

larger demand, earlier in the season


Can optimal management improve opportunities?

26

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

base

low

medium

high

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

base

low

medium

high

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

base

2010s

2030s

2040s

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

base 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

base

2010s

2030s

2040s

irrigatedSouth regionrainfed

management

level 0

management

level 4


Role of RD

(CAP)

A flexible

framework

Axis 1

Farm modernization

Restoring & prevention

Farm advisory services

Training

Axis 2

Agri-env measures

Payments linked to WFD

Axis 3

Diversification into non-

agricultural activities

Leader

INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS, INCORPORATED28

• Water scarcity and drought

• Conflicts among water users


The past is not a reliable indicator for the future

Reasons for concern when we think about

climate change and agriculture in Moldova

Consequences are unequal

Solutions: Agricultural technology,

cooperation, improved management, policy

Ahead: Deciding on the solutions that are

appropriate (the how issue)

29


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responding to climate change in moldova’s agricultural...

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