responding to the climate emergency...today’s growth and infrastructure resilient in tomorrow’s...
TRANSCRIPT
Responding to the climate emergency
Innovyze
2020 UK and European Conference
Craig WoolhouseDeputy Director of Evidence & Risk
4 March 2020
Overview
•Floods – recent and still to come
•Responding to the climate emergency and a new flood strategy
•Modelling context
Fishlake - 10 November 2019
Storm Dennis
7
River Severn
Aire & Ouse Washlands
8
Significant recent flood events
Year Flood eventProperties
flooded
Properties
protected
February 2020 Storms Ciara & Dennis 3,400 82,700
Autumn 2019 North & South of England 1,200 45,400
2015/16 North of England Floods 17,000 23,400
2013/14 Winter Floods (Dec 13 to May 14) 11,000 1.4m
2012 2012 Floods (Mar to Dec) 7,900 Approx 200,000
2007 Summer Floods 55,000 Approx 100,000
Newcastle 2012
Coining Hull "the forgotten city", the council's then leader Carl Minns pointed out that "if this was Chelsea or Fulham, this would have been plastered over the front pages for weeks"
• 3.8 million homes in England at risk
• National Climate Change Risk Assessment (2016)
• National Flood Resilience Review (2016)
• Inclusion of surface water flooding in the National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies (2017)
• Defra’s 25-year Environment Plan
• Surface Water Management Action Plan (2018)
• Autumn Statement 2018 Funding
• Drainage & Wastewater Management Plans (2019)
Surface Water
National Risk Assessment H19: Coastal
scenario
H21: Inland
scenario
H22: Surface water
scenario
Properties affected
180,000 330,000 108,000
Population affected 185,000 -
215,000
360,000 -
560,000
115,000 -
314,000
Infrastructure affected 110km roads
90km rail
410km roads
190km rail
430km roads
220km rail
Overall damages (£) 5 - 7.5bn 7 – 11bn 1.6 - 2.3bn
Real events (£) 1.3bn in 2013/14 3.9bn in 2007
Advance warning 2-5 days 12-48 hours Very limited
Risk to life
Birmingham May 2018
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Net Zero Carbon by 2030
• Announced 10 October 2019
• Two stages1. Reduce our carbon emissions in
line with Paris Agreement – 1.5 degree warming pathway
2. Balance remaining emissions through investing in carbon absorption projects
• Absolute Zero by 2050?
Net Zero by 2030 – Scope
45% reduction by 2030
✓Build & operate assets
✓Buildings
✓Travel
✓Fuel
✓Supply Chain
✓Commuting
For illustration only
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
2010 2020 2025 2030 2040 2050
Carbon emissions
Carbon emissions
FCERM Strategy ambitions
Climate resilient placesWorking with partners to develop the concept of standards
for flood and coastal resilience as well as a suite of tools
that can be used to deliver resilience in places
Today’s growth and infrastructure resilient in
tomorrow’s climateGetting the right kind of development in the right places to
deliver sustainable growth and infrastructure resilient to
flooding and coastal change
A nation of climate championsBetter preparing society through education and accessible
digital information as well as being a world leader in flood
and coastal resilience
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Evidence & Risk
Community-scale flood
forecasting models to inform
warning and response
activities – inland & coast
Deliver detailed modelling
and quality assurance that
supports scheme design, land
use planning choices and
local risk analysis
National flood risk mapping
products & strategic analysis
to inform effective risk
management
Some problems are simple
…but most are complex
Uncertainty and context
Rainfall and
hydrology
Land survey
Channel survey
and structures Model
schematisation
• Catchments
• Carbon
• Climate
• People
• Politics
Humility There is deep resentment of those who may well have a university
degree but who really have no idea of the land and water that flows
through itLynne Jones, Keswick
What does this mean for us?
• Mitigate - less carbon in modelling life cycle• Data, calibration and verification
• Processing and visualisation
• Working together differently
• Low carbon solutions from the start• What is the objective?
• Natural flood management
• Catchment wide solutions
• Adaptation is more than protection• Resilience
• The past will not be a guide to the future
Conclusions• Floods are about people and politics – we must
engage and inform as much as process and analyse
• We must think and act on carbon
• We must identify adaptive solutions for a future we can’t be sure about
• Our new flood strategy offers leadership to change
• Collaborate to achieve multiple goals – be leaders of change not actors following narrow instruction