response of arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived climate … · 2015. 11....
TRANSCRIPT
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Response of Arctic temperature to changes in emissions of short-lived
climate forcers
Maria Sand Terje K. Berntsen, Knut von Salzen, Mark G. Flanner,
Joakim Langner, and David G. Victor
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Arc0chaze
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WhatareSLCFs?
Gasesandpar0clesthathaveanatmosphericlife0meofafewdaystoadecade.
BLACKCARBON Sootproducedfromcombu0onsources.Absorbssolarradia0on.CO-EMITTEDPOLLUTANTS ~Sulfurdioxide,organiccarboncomponds.ScaFersolarradia0on.OZONE Troposphericozone,airpollutant,harmful.Greenhousegas.
METHANE OtherreportJ
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∆T>0
∆T<0 ∆T>0 ∆T>0∆T>0
dzdθ
The direct effect The indirect effect
The ‘semi-direct’ effect
The snow/ice-forcing effect
SW
LW
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GlobaltrendsinSLCFsemissions
AMAPBC&O3report,2015
BC OC SO2
NOx nmVOC
Griddedemissions1850-2000Lamarqueetal.(2010).
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Goal:AssesstheimpactonArc0cclimateofSLCFemissionsfromdifferentregionsandsectors
Ø Challengingtaskbecauseofsmalld(climate)signalandlargeuncertain0es,especiallyduetocloudindirecteffects
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Problem:smallperturba0ons,largevariability
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Estimating the climate response
UsingregionaltemperaturesensiKvityfactors:allowsarapidevalua0onofregionalemissionreduc0ons(ShindellandFaluvegi,2009;Shindell2012)
Emissions
ConcentraKons
RadiaKveForcing
TemperatureResponse
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Surface temperature response altitude dependent
IncreasedabsorpKonathigheralKtudesintheArc0c(posi0veforcing)couldleadtosurfacecooling.
Flanner,JGR,2013
IncreasedAAOD
IncreasedAAOD
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Blueshading:indicatesal0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtocooltheArc0csurface.Redshading:al0tudeswhereBCisexpectedtowarmtheArc0csurface.
Surface temperature response altitude dependent VerKcalprofilesofBCintheArcKcàorigina0ngfromBCemissionsoccurringwithindifferentla0tudebands.
AMAPBC&O3report,2015
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Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringoil/gas
AMAPBC&O3report,20153%ofglobalBCemiss,33%>60°N,66%>66°N
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JAN
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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FEB
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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MAR
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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APR
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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MAY
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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JUN
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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JUL
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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AUG
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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SEP
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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OCT
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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NOV
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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DEC
Oneexample:BCemissionsfromflaringinRussia
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Emissionregions
Canada UnitedStates NordicCountries
SouthEastAsiaRussia Non-Arc0cEurope
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Arctic temperature change
1)domes0c2)energy/industry/waste3)Transport4)agriculturalwasteburning5)forestfires6)flaring
1234 56
• Largest sources of warming: – E/S Asia domestic emissions (largely via extra-Arctic forcing) – Russia gas flaring (via Arctic forcing) – ROW domestic emissions (high BC/SO2 emission ratio)
• Largest sources of cooling: – Energy+Industry+Waste emissions (esp. E/S Asia, low BC/SO2 emission ratio)
• Fire emissions are near climate-neutral because of low BC/OC emission ratio
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
Arc0csurfacetemperaturechange
4
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‘Bang for the buck’ • High-latitude sources (Russia,
Nordic, Canada) have largest impact by this measure
• Warming from BC stands out because of its large radiative efficiency
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
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Mitigation potential
Global mitigation scenario for SLCFs – all emission mitigation measures with both a
beneficial air quality and short-term climate impact
– focused on mitigation options that resulted in a global net cooling (using the GTP20 metric).
– 2015 … 2050 Derived from model-mean equilibrium dT’s and impulse response functions (Boucher and Reddy, 2008)
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1)domes0c2)agriculturalwasteburning3)energy/industry/waste4)transport
Volkswagen
Sandetal.,NCC,2015
Mi0ga0onpoten0alArc0csurfacetemperatures