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Appendix 4:

Public Service Reform – Rochdale MBC

Initial Assessment for High Demand for Services

16th June 2016

Author: Matthew Boulter CV 66740, Intelligence Analyst, GMP Rochdale

Summary:

The analysis shows that, based on Police incidents between June 2015 and May 2016, Lower Falinge and College Bank is one of the highest demand locations in Rochdale.

Ten Police beats account for over a quarter of volume demand when ‘called in’ from private households. By this measure Lower Falinge and College Bank is not the highest of locations but is third behind Kirkholt (10) and Milkstone (2).

However, when using a comparative and standardised measure of incidents per 1000 households Lower Falinge and College Bank is effectively responsible for the highest household demand in Rochdale.

Spatially, Lower Falinge and College Bank is a comparatively small area, and is densely populated. It consequently generates more household demand than any other beat location in Rochdale.

When looking at all Police incidents from all types of premises and locations (i.e. also deriving from a commercial premises or from a public area) for larger residential areas (i.e. contains over a 1000 households) Lower Falinge and College bank is ranked seventh. However, the rate per 1000 household elevates the area to second place (behind Newbold and Waithlands).

Lower Falinge and College Bank is made up of a high concentration of social housing tenancies (flats) and is established as a challenging area in terms of deprivation, opportunities and welfare.

This is an intelligence assessment based on the raw GMP data and should be not taken as official or complete. However, the comparative figures provide a strong steer to the location and nature of demand, and re-affirm the sense that Lower Falinge and College Bank is a place worthy of further direct intervention.

Aim and Purpose:

The purpose of this document is to set out - in summary form - the rationale for establishing a sensible location for phase 2 of the Public Service Reform activity in Rochdale. In essence it compares demand in small areas and neighbourhoods in Rochdale. The document refers to reported incidents only and does not attempt to define the ‘hidden demand’ placed on local services. This important factor in defining demand will require data from other services and further qualitative analysis with those working directly in the location.

Data:

The data used in this assessment is primarily drawn from extraction of incidents (FWINS) in GMP data systems (using iBase and Business Intelligence). The extractions are for 12 months – 1st June 2015 to 31st May 2016 for Rochdale (P) Division. The data is ‘raw’ and

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has not been the subject to any audit or full verification. Consequently the figures provided should not be relayed as 100% accurate or official. They do however provide a strong intelligence picture of high demand in Rochdale. The Lower Falinge and College Bank is a predefined Police beat area (P1A5). The comparable Lower Supper Output Areas are E01005483 and E01005482.

About Lower Falinge and College Bank

Lower Falinge and College Bank is an area of social housing in the centre of Rochdale. It is a neighbourhood in Rochdale’s Central ward. Its population is given as 2073 and made up of 1246 households. It is a small geographic area – just 0.128 sq. Km. (N.B. These measurements are lodged in GMP systems and are used in the below analysis, but have not been further verified).

The vast majority type of housing is made up of 7 high rise blocks which are the College bank flats– (known locally as ‘Seven sisters’) and - just to the north - a number (approximately 20) of three storey flat blocks known as Lower Falinge. The majority of the tenancies are managed by Rochdale Boroughwide Housing.

There are very few commercial concerns – most notably a Lidl supermarket on Spotland Rd.

The area has been unfortunately associated with deprivation, worklessness and crime. This initial document does not aim to fully explore these wider deprivation indicators but to assist:

E01005482 – is ranked in the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation as 33rd deprived area in England. This is the worst in Rochdale – (out of 134 Rochdale LSOAs).

E01005483 - is ranked in the 2015 Index of Multiple Deprivation as 470th deprived area in England. This is ranked as the 7th most deprived area in Rochdale (out of 134 Rochdale LSOAs)

Both LSOAs are comfortably in the highest decile - i.e. are in the 10% most deprived in England. In fact the area E01005482 ranks in the top 1% of deprived locations in England and is the second most deprived area in all of Greater Manchester.

(Source: English Indices of Deprivation 2015, Department for Communities and Local Government)

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Maps:

Data Assessment

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Assessing demand for a place can be skewed by the type of incident being measured. Locations like shopping centres, supermarkets and pubs etc. can give a different sense of demand than that of places of with a higher numbers of residential streets, houses and flats. To this end I have deliberately excluded from some of the analysis commercial premises and public places and just included incidents that are marked against private houses, flats, flat blocks, hostels and care homes. This provides a more balanced analysis of the type of demand where people actually live rather than where they work or visit. Further balance is provided by reporting the comparable figures by incidents and crimes by volume of household and spatial area.

The following tables show the reported high demand in Lower Falinge and College Bank:

The first table shows all household demand by volume – i.e. calls to Police which are usually 999 or 101 contact and is broken down by broader ‘closing code’ categories (however, it should be noted that within each broad demand type there is a more complex set of factors that will refine our picture of what is going on – such as issues with alcohol and drugs, mental health or domestic violence and this requires further granular analysis). ‘Administration categories’, for example, is a very generic cover for issues such as ‘call made with good intent’ (that is the caller suspects an issue that proves not be the case), and ‘passed to other agencies’ (such as ambulance or the council services) and missing from home checks.

The following 10 Police beat areas are the places that collectively account for just over a quarter of activity when calls are made from private residences in Rochdale. On pure total volume Lower Falinge and College Bank flats is ranked the third highest, with Kirkholt and Milkstone slightly ahead. Kirkholt has previously been subject to PSR activity. Milkstone demand is skewed by Statham House – a hostel for 16 to 18 year olds which reports numerous ‘missing from home’ incidents.

Type of demandRank (out 117) Beat

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour Other

All demand (house-holds)

1 P2H1 - KIRKHOLT 473 329 303 208 27 13402 P1G3 - MILKSTONE 461 282 159 88 13 1003

3P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 314 242 164 155 13 888

4 P1G4 - DEEPLISH 388 204 175 90 11 8685 P3P1 - SIDDAL MOOR AND NEWHOUSE 323 188 238 103 4 8566 P3M3 - LANGLEY EAST 338 175 180 146 15 8547 P3M4 - HOLLINS 305 218 171 127 13 8348 P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 313 205 173 127 11 8299 P3K2 - MOORCLOSE AND MILLS HILL 304 207 158 123 14 806

10 P3M2 - LANGLEY WEST 309 174 136 104 9 732

Rochdale Total 12765 7972 7790 4561 533 33641Rochdale Average: 115.00 72.47 71.47 42.23 4.29 297.71

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Rank (out 117) Beat

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour Other

All demand (house-holds)

1 P2H1 - KIRKHOLT 4% 4% 4% 5% 5% 4%2 P1G3 - MILKSTONE 4% 4% 2% 2% 2% 3%

3P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 3%

4 P1G4 - DEEPLISH 3% 3% 2% 2% 2% 3%5 P3P1 - SIDDAL MOOR AND NEWHOUSE 3% 2% 3% 2% 1% 3%6 P3M3 - LANGLEY EAST 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3%7 P3M4 - HOLLINS 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%8 P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 2% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%9 P3K2 - MOORCLOSE AND MILLS HILL 2% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%

10 P3M2 - LANGLEY WEST 2% 2% 2% 2% 2% 2%

% these 10 beats account for total demand in Rochdale (at residential addresses) 28% 28% 24% 28% 24% 27%

There is a shift in the place rankings when we take a more comparable standardised view of demand. This is measured by the number of incidents per 1000 households in each location. By this measure Lower Falinge and College Bank is effectively the highest demand place in Rochdale. (Roch Valley and Rochdale Town centre skew the figures because they have very low number of residences but high numbers of relative incidents emanating from them. Roch Valley because the only place people live in this area is Springfield Park Nursing Home).

Rank (out 117) Beat

Households

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour

All demand (house-holds

1 P1B4 - ROCH VALLEY* 6 3166.67 411.76 235.29 235.29 2000.00

2P1W2 - ROCHDALE TOWN CENTRE SOUTH* 97 463.92 138.08 159.00 100.42 594.14

3P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 1246 252.01 116.74 79.11 74.77 428.36

4 P1G3 - MILKSTONE 761 605.78 112.94 63.68 35.24 401.68

5 P3L6 - BAGULEY CRESCENT 351 170.94 111.30 63.36 37.67 318.49

6 P1G1 - SPARTHBOTTOMS 360 266.67 84.10 76.04 43.78 314.52

7 P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 1021 306.56 75.65 63.84 46.86 305.90

8 P2T2 - GREAT HOWARTH 745 249.66 68.39 70.60 37.51 284.06

9 P3N6 - ANGEL MEADOW 564 177.30 43.11 74.04 64.67 276.48

10 P2F4 - SANDFIELD 673 222.88 66.34 58.73 53.29 265.36

Rochdale per 1000 hh 87525 145.84 91.08 89.00 52.11 384.36Rochdale Beat Area Average: 781.00 165.02 41.54 38.30 22.52 171.14

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The concentration of household based incidents deriving from each beat is greatest from Lower Falinge and College Bank, which has a relatively tiny footprint when compared to the sprawling estates of Langley or Kirkholt.Rank (out 117) Beat

Area (sq. km)

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour

All demand (house-holds)

1P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 0.128 2453.13 1890.63 1281.25 1210.94 6937.50

2 P1G2 - FREEHOLD 0.068 1441.18 588.24 676.47 338.24 3073.533 P1G3 - MILKSTONE 0.327 1409.79 862.39 486.24 269.11 3067.284 P2T1 - HURSTEAD AND GREEN MEADOW 0.316 645.57 427.22 414.56 382.91 1911.395 P2F4 - SANDFIELD 0.266 563.91 458.65 406.02 368.42 1834.596 P1A4 - FALINGE 0.272 698.53 408.09 492.65 180.15 1805.157 P3N6 - ANGEL MEADOW 0.171 584.80 269.01 461.99 403.51 1725.158 P2T2 - GREAT HOWARTH 0.314 592.36 394.90 407.64 216.56 1640.139 P1G5 - MEREFIELD AND LONG HILL 0.21 585.71 404.76 461.90 147.62 1633.33

10 P2T7 - THE CRAY 0.124 572.58 330.65 379.03 169.35 1459.68

Rochdale Total 82.32 51.41 50.24 29.41 2.01 216.96Rochdale Beat Area Average: 1.38 239.92 149.92 143.83 85.52 629.05

The following tables reports All demand in an area – not just that derived from a household – but does limit it to Police beat location that have more than 1000 households within it to allow a reasonable comparison. Collectively these 10 areas account for 23% of demand to Rochdale Police. The larger housing estates and places characterised by the typical dense terraced streets such as Deeplish and Moorclose – are responsible for overall higher demand – but the rate of all demand as measured per 1000 household places Lower Falinge and College Bank as second (behind Newbold and Waithlands).

All Demand - Area has more than 1000 households - total volume

Beat

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour

ALL Demand

P2H1 - KIRKHOLT 642 449 438 406 2013P1G4 - DEEPLISH 546 383 370 259 1647P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 430 331 400 290 1527P3K2 - MOORCLOSE AND MILLS HILL 425 361 299 299 1449P3M2 - LANGLEY WEST 449 256 230 258 1230P1A3 - TOWNHEAD AND FOXHOLES 333 290 286 187 1191P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 361 293 223 206 1131P3O2 - DARNHILL 307 195 204 179 899P2I3 - CASTLETON WEST 279 171 237 144 860P3O3 - HEADY HILL 278 188 165 188 852P2T1 - HURSTEAD AND GREEN MEADOW 252 176 166 175 796P3N2 - BACK O'TH MOSS 228 188 163 168 770P2R1 - LITTLEBOROUGH TOWN CENTRE 204 212 168 114 739

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All Demand - Area has more than 1000 households (rate per 1000 h/h)

Beat

Public Safety Welfare

Administration Categories Crime

Anti-Social Behaviour

All Demand

P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 421.16 122.14 147.60 107.01 563.47P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 289.73 141.34 107.57 99.37 545.59P1A3 - TOWNHEAD AND FOXHOLES 316.84 101.86 100.46 65.68 418.34P1G4 - DEEPLISH 411.76 84.16 81.30 56.91 361.90P2R1 - LITTLEBOROUGH TOWN CENTRE 194.66 97.25 77.06 52.29 338.99P2H1 - KIRKHOLT 239.37 73.21 71.42 66.20 328.22P2T1 - HURSTEAD AND GREEN MEADOW 215.20 69.13 65.20 68.74 312.65P2I3 - CASTLETON WEST 222.84 61.36 85.04 51.67 308.58P3O2 - DARNHILL 241.92 64.21 67.17 58.94 296.02P3N2 - BACK O'TH MOSS 197.75 70.12 60.80 62.66 287.21P3M2 - LANGLEY WEST 234.83 58.17 52.26 58.62 279.48P3K2 - MOORCLOSE AND MILLS HILL 180.77 68.61 56.82 56.82 275.37P3O3 - HEADY HILL 172.35 53.26 46.74 53.26 241.36

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Category Definitions of Demand:

For the tables above ‘Other’ includes *** Uncategorised ***, Qualifiers, RTC (Road Traffic Collision) and Transport – relative low values mean that the figures for these categories are not included, but are within totals.

Principal closing category description Principal closing code and description

C21 - Sexual Offence Other Than RapeG29 - Non Deployment/Local Resolution

C20 - RapeD65 - Domestic Violence - Disclosure Scheme

*** Uncategorised ***

G26 - Human Traffic/Modern SlaveryL20 - Contact Record / Message / Information

L08 - Call Made with Good IntentP06 - Police Generated Resource Activity

L24 - Passed to Other AgencyG11 - Lost / Found Property / Person

L03 - Complaints Against PoliceL02 - Other Police Force Dealing

L04 - Pre-Planned EventsL06 - Accidental Injury / Damage

Administration Categories

ZZZ - Incident Closed by OPUSD92 - Rowdy or Inconsiderate Behaviour

D93 - NeighboursD71 - Vehicle Nuisance / Inappropriate UseD50 - Malicious / Nuisance Communications

D70 - AbandonedD52 - Hoax Calls to Emergency Services

D80 - NoiseD17 - Animal Problems

D91 - FireworksD12 - Begging / Vagrancy

D95 - TrespassD90 - Littering / Drug Paraphernalia

D08 - Street Drinking

Anti-Social Behaviour

D13 - Prostitution Related ActivityC05 - Other Theft, Handling & Fraud

C01 - ViolenceC03 - Burglary inc. bogus / distraction caller

C13 - Other CrimeC07 - Vehicle Crime

C06 - Criminal DamageC04 - Robbery & Theft from Person

C11 - Drug Related Crime

Crime

C08 - Firearm IncidentNo Category Code No Closing Code

G74 - Suspicious CircumstancesD62 - Domestic Incident - Between Adults

D51 - Abandoned CallG16 - Concern for Safety (18 and over)

Public Safety Welfare

G60 - Missing Person

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D61 - Domestic Incident - Juvenile PresentL18 - Bail/Curfew - Checks/Breach

G21 - Civil DisputesG07 - Concern for Safety (17 and under)

G10 - Sudden DeathG63 - Missing Person - Unauthorised Absence

A05 - Monitor Stn - False Alarm - Staff ErrorA03 - Alarm - Audible Other (Non-BAURN)

G14 - Pets / Domesticated AnimalsA02 - Alarm - Police / Home Link Installation

G06 - Collapse / Injury / Illness / TrappedD63 - Domestic Incident - Non ACPO Domestic

A09 - Monitor Stn - False Alarm - Personal AttackG13 - Insecure Premises / Vehicles

G22 - ImmigrationA04 - Monitor Stn - Genuine Call - No Arrest

D64 - Domestic Incident - Prevent a Breach of the PeaceA08 - Alarm/Duplicate

G81 - WildlifeG73 - Suspicious Package / Object

G23 - LicencingL05 - Industrial Incident / Accident

A01 - Monitor Stn - Genuine Call - ArrestG24 - Natural Disaster / Incident / Warning

G09 - Absconders / Absent Without Leave (AWOL) / EscapeeA10 - Monitor Stn - False Alarm - Withdrawn

G51 - Dangerous BuildingD18 - Firearms IncidentsG90 - Protected places

P02 - Police PursuitQualifiers

G36 - Arrested - S136 Mental Health ActT53 - Damage

T51 - InjuryRTC T50 - Death

T03 - Road Related OffenceT13 - Highway DisruptionTransport

T10 - Transport Incident - NOT road related

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Beat areas with more than a 1000 households – highest at top

Beat Population HouseholdsArea (sq km)

P2H1 - KIRKHOLT 6133 2682 1.615P3M3 - LANGLEY EAST 5619 2540 1.162P3K2 - MOORCLOSE AND MILLS HILL 5262 2351 1.341P3L5 - ALKRINGTON WEST 5684 2312 1.516P3K1 - ALKRINGTON EAST 5008 2261 1.08P3M2 - LANGLEY WEST 4401 1912 0.967P2S1 - MILNROW 4313 1868 1.083P1B6 - BAMFORD 4507 1824 1.645P3P1 - SIDDAL MOOR AND NEWHOUSE 4268 1789 0.813P3J4 - STANNYCLIFFE 4480 1765 0.833P3M4 - HOLLINS 3794 1762 0.8P3O3 - HEADY HILL 3530 1613 0.721P1E1 - SHAWCLOUGH 3588 1452 0.952P2R6 - SMITHYBRIDGE 3396 1387 1.148P3O4 - SUMMIT 3263 1363 0.511P1G4 - DEEPLISH 4551 1326 0.73P2I1 - MEADWAY AND SUDDEN 3183 1294 0.683P3O2 - DARNHILL 3037 1269 0.692P2I3 - CASTLETON WEST 2787 1252 1.507P1A5 - LOWER FALINGE AND COLLEGE BANK 2073 1246 0.128P2Q4 - STARRING 2932 1226 1.096P1C1 - ELMSFIELD AND SHELFIELD 3183 1209 1.149P1E2 - HEALEY 2990 1209 0.945P3J2 - CHEAPSIDE 2666 1200 0.552P2T1 - HURSTEAD AND GREEN MEADOW 2546 1171 0.316P3N2 - BACK O'TH MOSS 2681 1153 0.891P3P2 - HOPWOOD AND LANE END 2642 1106 1.051P1E4 - SYKE AND FIELDHOUSE 2959 1104 0.786P3L3 - RHODES 2336 1086 0.669P3N5 - HOPWOOD NORTH 2286 1076 1.161P1A3 - TOWNHEAD AND FOXHOLES 2847 1051 0.655P2Q3 - WARDLE 2517 1048 1.075P2R1 - LITTLEBOROUGH TOWN CENTRE 2180 1048 0.756P2F5 - NEWBOLD AND WAITHLANDS 2710 1021 0.575P3J3 - BOARSHAW 2299 1014 0.433