results from impact evaluation of cash transfer programs ... › ... ›...
TRANSCRIPT
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Results from impact evaluation of cash
transfer programs in sub-Saharan
Africa
Benjamin Davis
FAO, PtoP and Transfer Project
Conferencia Nacional de Assistencia Social
Monday, October 21, 2013
Luanda, Angola
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The rise of cash transfers in Sub Saharan Africa
• Approximately half of the countries of Sub Saharan Africa have some kind of government run cash transfer program – And most others have multilateral/NGO run CT
programs
• Some programs are national – Others scaling up
– Some are pilots
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0
5
10
15
20
25
• % of population covered by cash transfer program • Since 2010, planned or on-going expansions (eg: Lesotho, Ghana, Kenya)
Scale up of cash transfer programs in Sub Saharan Africa
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The rise of cash transfers in Sub Saharan Africa
• Variety of designs – Universal old age pensions; near universal child
grants • Primarily southern African countries
– Targeted programs to specific vulnerabilities • Kenya, Lesotho, Malawi, Mozambique
– Cash for work for able-bodied • Ethiopia, Rwanda
– A few conditional programs • Burkina Faso, Tanzania, Nigeria
– Cash in emergency settings • Niger, Somalia, Mali
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Who are cash transfer beneficiaries in Sub Saharan Africa? An example from the Zambia CGP
• Over 95% of households are extremely poor; over 99% poor
• Almost 75% of expenditures spent on food
• Large families (over 5 members on average) – More than half children under 13
• 1/3 of children under 5 are stunted
• 1/3 of school aged children do not attend school; 22% are orphaned
• Over 80% of households produce crops • Most grow local staples, using traditional technology and low levels of modern
inputs
• Most have low levels of assets – Half hectare of agricultural land, few small animals, basic agricultural tools
and low levels of education
• Over half of all children worked on family farm
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Evidence on cash transfers from Sub Saharan Africa
• Improve welfare – Reduce poverty and increase food consumption – Improve food security and nutritional status
• Enable poor and vulnerable to become productive citizens – Increase human capital
• Heath status and use of health services • Educational enrolment and school attendance
– Safer transition to adulthood – Improve livelihoods (productive activities) – Dynamic local economy
• Evidence based on ongoing impact evaluations from
unconditional cash transfer programs – Malawi, Kenya, Ethiopia, Zambia, Ghana, South Africa and Lesotho
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Reduce poverty
• Zambia CGP – 5 pp reduction in poverty, 11 pp in poverty gap, 11 pp in
severity of poverty gap (using severe poverty line)
• Kenya CT-OVC – 13 pp reduction in poverty (less than $1 a day)
• South Africa (all) – Reduce the poverty gap by 45% and destitution gap by 67%
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Cash transfers increase household expenditures on food
Zambia Kenya Ghana Malawi
impact baseline
Total 15 47 +++ NS +++
Food 12 34 +++ NS +++
Education NS NS NS NS NS
Health 1 3 +++ NS +++
Clothing NS NS NS NS
• No increase in expenditures on alcohol or tobacco in any country
Over 35%
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Leading to an improved diet
Zambia Kenya Ghana Malawi
impact baseline
Meat 2.4 6.8 +++ NS +++
Dairy .7 .9 +++ NS +++
Cereals 4.5 11.6 NS NS +++
Fruits/vegetables NS NS NS NS +++
Sugars 1.3 .8 +++ NS +++
Fats, oil, other 1.8 1.5 +++ NS +++
Dietary diversity 1.4 4.8 +++ NS +++
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And improving multiple dimensions of food security
• Zambia CGP • Kenya CT-OVC • Ethiopia PSNP • Malawi SCT • South Africa CSG
With mixed story on nutritional status
Zambia
Kenya
Malawi
South
Africa
Stunting NS NS +++ +++
Multiple determinants of nutritional status
• Increasing number of meals a day
• Reducing going to bed hungry, etc
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Cash transfers also led to improvement in health status and use of health services
• Reduction in diarrhea (children under 5) – Zambia CGP, Kenya CT-OVC, Malawi SCT
• Increase in seeking curative care (children under 5) – Kenya CT-OVC
• Increase in seeking preventative care (children under 5) – Kenya CT-OVC
– Ghana LEAP (for female headed households)
• Increase in access to national heath insurance – Ghana LEAP (34 pp for children under 5)
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As well as increased school enrolment and attendance
• Increased primary and/or secondary school enrolment – Kenya CT-OVC
– Zambia CGP (for mothers with lower levels of education)
– Malawi SCT
– Ghana LEAP
– South Africa Old Age Pension
• Highest grade completed – Kenya CT-OVC
• Reduced grade repetition – Ghana LEAP
• Reduced absences – South Africa CSG
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Cash transfers can make the transition into adulthood safer for adolescents
• Kenya CT-OVC – Less likely to have had sexual debut (8 pp)
– Reduced number of sexual partners in last 12 months
– Reduced frequency of unprotected sex in last 3 months
– Less likely to be pregnant (5 pp) • But mediated through increasing in schooling
– Improvement in psycho-social status • Less depression
• South Africa CSG
• Malawi Zomba cash transfer experiment
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Cash transfers can lead to productive investment
• Increase in investment in agricultural inputs and tools – Zambia CGP, Ethiopia PSNP, Malawi SCT
• Increase in agricultural production – Ethiopia PSNP
– Zambia CGP • And increase in sales at market (12 pp from 23% base)
• Increase in home production of food – Kenya CT-OVC and Malawi SCT, in cereals and animal products
• Increase in livestock ownership – Zambia CGP, Kenya CT-OVC and Malawi SCT
• Increase in ownership of non agricultural enterprises – Zambia CGP (17 pp from 22% base) and Kenya CT-OVC
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Move on farm and into family productive activities
• Reducing adult agricultural wage labor and increasing time spent on the family farm – Zambia, Kenya, Malawi (ganyu labor), Zimbabwe (maricho labor),
Ghana (increase on own farm labor) • Zambia: particularly for women (17 pp to 29%; 12 days fewer to 19)
• Increase in labor dedicated to family non agricultural enterprise – Zambia, Kenya
• Increase in labor market participation – Zambia CGP
– South Africa CSG
• Allowed elderly and physically disabled to “rest” – Zimbabwe
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But mixed results on child labor
• Kenya: reduction in on farm activity for children – Particularly for boys (12 pp from 42%)
• Malawi: reduction in wage labor, increase in on farm activity
• South Africa: reduction in child wage labor
• Zambia: no impact
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Cash transfers improve the ability of households to manage risk
• Reduce negative risk coping strategies – Malawi, Ethiopia, Kenya
• Pay off debt and increase savings – Zambia, Ghana and Kenya
• Increase in credit worthiness – Ghana and Lesotho
• Though often reluctant to increase debt
• Re-engagement with social networks, community activities – Allow households to participate, to “mingle” again – Ghana, Zimbabwe and Kenya
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Transfer How do local
economy effects
work?
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Transfer
T,T
T, NT
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Transfer
Rest of
Lesotho
Rest of
World
T,T
NT,NT’
T, NT
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Transfer
Rest of
Lesotho
Rest of
World
T,T
NT,NT’
NT,T
NT’,NT
T, NT
Transfer
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Transfer
Rest of
Lesotho
Rest of
World
T,T
NT,NT’
NT,T
NT’,NT
NT,NT
T, NT
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Ghana: LEAP households spend about 80% of income inside the local economy
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Cash transfers can have large income multiplier effects
Multiplier Total Income
Nominal 2.50 (CI) (2.38 - 2.65)
Ghana LEAP Program
Every 1 Cedi transferred can generate 2.50 Cedis of income
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If supply response is constrained, income multiplier can be as low as 1.50
Multiplier Total Income
Nominal 2.50 (CI) (2.38 - 2.65)
Real 1.50 (CI) (1.40 - 1.59)
Ghana LEAP Program
Production constraints can limit supply response, which may lead to higher prices and a lower multiplier
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Income multiplier varies by context
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
W Kenya E Kenya ethiopia -abi-adi Zambia Lesotho Ghana ethiopia - hintalo
Nominal
Real
Differences across countries:
Openness of local economies
Where money is spent in local economy
Every 1 Cedi transferred can generate 2.50 Cedis of income
If constraints are binding, may be as low as 1.50
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Non beneficiary households gain most the income multiplier
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
W Kenya Abi-Adi E Kenya Zambia Lesotho Ghana Hintalo
Non-Beneficiary
Beneficiary
Policy message: In order to maximize income multipliers, pay attention to supply response by all, particularly non beneficiaries
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Design and implementation are important for achieving objectives
• Demographic profile of beneficiary households – Available labor: OVC? Households with young
children?
• Relevance of messaging and soft conditions on social spending
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Regular and predictable transfers allow people to plan: the lumpy LEAP
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Reaching objectives requires transfer equal to 20- 30% of per capita income of poor households
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
GhanaLEAP(old)
Burkina KenyaCT-OVC
(big)
KenyaCT-OVC
Lesotho(CGP)
RSACSG
GhanaLEAP
(current)
KenyaCT-OVC(small)
Zim(HSCT)
ZambiaCGP
ZambiaMCP
MalawiSCT
Larger impact
Little impact
30
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Cash transfers need to be linked to supply of services
• Cash transfers can help address demand-side barriers to accessing services (economic and financial barriers)
• But to maximize impacts need to develop linkages with other sectors (education, health, nutrition, etc) – Ensure supply of quality services to meet demand
– Complementary services to address outcomes with multiple determinants (eg: behavioral practices around nutrition)
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Cash transfers needs to be part of a rural development strategy
• Cash transfer programmes cannot replace sector economic development strategy, nor do they constitute a motor of growth in and of themselves
• Almost three quarters of economically active rural population are smallholders, most producing own food
• Small holder agriculture as key for rural poverty reduction and food security in Sub Saharan Africa – Relies on increased productivity, profitability and sustainability of
small holder farming
• Social protection and agriculture need to be articulated as part of strategy of rural development – Link to graduation strategies
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In conclusion: The evidence shows……
• Cash transfer programs are not charity
– They enable the poor and vulnerable to become productive citizens
• Cash transfers can have a big impact even without conditions
– Though messaging is important
• A small amount of money can go a long way
– Cash transfers equal to 20 to 30 percent of per capita average income of poor households can have big impacts
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Our websites
From Protection to Production Project
http://www.fao.org/economic/PtoP/en/
The Transfer Project
http://www.cpc.unc.edu/projects/transfer