results of the analysis of the forecast periods for southeast europe coordination initiative study...

8/10/2019 Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning Uncertainties (2015-2020), USAID

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15th ELECTRICITY FORUM OF THE ENERGY COMMUNITY

ATHENS

Results of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for SoutheastResults of the Analysis of the Forecast Periods for Southeast

Europe Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission PlanningEurope Coordination Initiative Study on Transmission Planning

and Uncertainties (2015and Uncertainties (2015--2020)2020)

Robert F. Ichord, Jr., Ph.D.

Chief, Energy and Infrastructure

Jamshid Heidarian, Ph.D.Senior Energy Advisor

US Agency for International Development

Europe and Eurasia Bureau

on behalf of SECIon behalf of SECI--TPWGTPWG

November 26, 2009


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SECI TSP Goals

Promote Regional Transmission Planning AmongSoutheast Europe TSOs

Harmonize Transmission Planning Principles,

Methods and Methodologies

Identify Priority Investments in Transmission

Systems & Interconnections


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SECI TSP Objectives

Create Sustainable International ExpertTransmission Planning Working Group (WG)

Support Common Planning Software Platform

(PSS/E) Analyze Regional System to Identify Bottlenecks

Identify Potential Transmission Investments

Needed to Enhance Trade

Promote Analytical Results To Policy &

Regulatory Authorities


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SECI TSP Governance & Operation

MOU Steering Committee

Working Group - 2 participants from each TSO

Project Technical Coordinator: MEPSO USAID & USEA Provide Technical, Financial &

Admin Support

TSOs Cost Share

Model Integrator & Analytical Support: Electricity Coordination Center of Belgrade

Energy Institute of Croatia


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SECI TSP Project Participants

Albania -- Transmission System and Market Operator Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Independent System Operator in

Bosnia and Herzegovina -- Electricity Transmission Company of

Croatia -- HEP Transmission System Operator LLC Kosovo Transmission System and Market Operator (KOSTT)

Macedonia Macedonia Transmission System Operator

Montenegro AD Prenos

Romania Transelectrica

Serbia JP Elektromereza Srbjie (EMS)

Italy TERNA (observer)

Slovenia Elektro Slovenia (observer)

Turkey Turkish Electricity Transmission Company (observer)


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Overview

HISTORY Southeast Europe Cooperation Initiative 1998

Regional Transmission System Planning Project 2001

Models for 2005, 2010, 2015 AND 2020: PSS/E Format, Steady

State, Dynamic, Short Circuit (Winter Peak, Summer Off-Peak) Studies

Regional Electricity Interconnection Study 2002

Generation Investment Study (GIS): PSS/E Analysis and

Results 2004 Transmission Network Investment Criteria 2007

Evaluation Of Investments In Transmission Network toSustain Generation and Market Development In SEE 2007


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Transmission Network Planning

VERTICALLY INTEGRATED UTILITIES INTEGRATED PRODUCTION, TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION

PLANNING

OPTIMIZATION ON NATIONAL LEVEL

AVAILABLE DATA

UNCERTAINTIES (LOAD GROWTH, HYDROLOGY, GENERATORS AND

NETWORK AVAILABILITY)

OPEN MARKET ENVIRONMENT

REGULATED TRANSMISSION ACTIVITIES

SEPARATED COMPANIES

MARKET TRANSACTIONS (UNPREDICABLE FOR A LONG-TIME FRAME) SECURITY VS. ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY

PLANNING ABOVE NATIONAL LEVEL (COORDIATION BETWEEN TSOs)

UNCERTAINTIES (POWER PLANTS CONSTRUCTION AND DISPATCH,ELECTRICITY PRICES, MARKET TRANSACTIONS, REGULATORYREQUESTS, ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES etc.)


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Transmission Network Planning

EXPERIENCES IN THE SEE 9 TSOs

National Grid Codes

Lack of Regional Grid Code

Different Planning Criteria (Harmonization Is Needed) Market Issues - Not Satisfactory Treated

PLANNING CRITERIA AND METHODOLOGY

Mostly Used (N-1) Technical Criterion

Lack of Economic Criteria Power System Simulations, Multi-scenario Analyses

SECI Study Transmission Network Investment Criteria Suggestion Of Common Technical And Economic Criteria From

Regional Perspective Transmission Projects Prioratization From Regional Perspective


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What is the most influential uncertaintyin your country related to a

transmission network planning?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Unknownpowerplantssizeandlo

cations

Unknownproductioncosts/bidsandgener...

Loadgrowthrate

Futuremarkettransactions

Other(W

PPs)

Other(electricityprice)

No of answers

THE MOST IMPORTANTUNCERTAINTIES:

Unknown Power PlantsSize And Locations

Load Growth

Wind Farms

Future MarketTransactions

Unknown Generators

Dispatch Electricity Price

Uncertainties in SEE Transmission Network


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Study on Uncertainties in the SEE

Transmission System Objectives:

Identify Most Important Uncertainties in EachIdentify Most Important Uncertainties in Each SSEE CountryEE Country

Analyze & Evaluate Impact of Different Uncertainties onAnalyze & Evaluate Impact of Different Uncertainties onPlanned Transmission Investments and SEE TransmissionPlanned Transmission Investments and SEE TransmissionSystemSystem

Scenarios (73):

Power Plants Construction Plan Connection of Italian Market With SEE Market

Connection of Turkish Market With SEE Market

Individual Countries Power Balance

Branches And Generators Availability

Planning Time Frame


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COUNTRIES POWER BALANCE:

ALBANIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)

BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA (ZEROBALANCE, EXPORT)

BULGARIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)

CROATIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)

MACEDONIA (ZERO BALANCE,IMPORT)

MONTENEGRO (IMPORT, EXPORT)

ROMANIA (ZERO BALANCE,EXPORT)

SERBIA (ZERO BALANCE, IMPORT)

Transmission Planning Uncertainties Contd

SLOVENIA (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)

TURKEY (IMPORT, EXPORT)

UNMIK (ZERO BALANCE, EXPORT)


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TPP

Kosovo

NPP

Krsko 2

HPP

KozjakWPP AL - IT ME - IT HR - IT RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS SI TR UNMIK

Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI) X X X XTransformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA) X X

Transformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME) X

Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME) X

Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR) X

Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR) X

Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS) X

Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO) X

Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO) X X X

Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS)Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East

Line 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU) X

Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI) X

Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG) X

Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO) X

Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO) X

Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO) X

Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO) X

Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO)

Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR)

Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL)

Power balance uncertainties for the territoriesConnection to Italian/Turkish market

uncertaintiesCritical element

Base

case

Power plants construction uncertainties

IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2015:


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TPP

Kosovo

NPP

Krsko 2

HPP

KozjakWPP AL - IT ME - IT HR - IT RO - TR AL BG BA HR MK ME RO RS SI TR UNMIK

Line 220 kV Dunamenti - Martonvasar (HU) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Tie-line 220 kV Divaca (SI) - Padriciano (IT) X X X X

Tie-line 220 kV Pehlin (HR) - Divaca (SI)

Transformer 400/220 kV in Trebinje (BA) XTransformer 400/220 kV in Pljevlja (ME)

Tie-line 220 kV Trebinje (BA) - Perucica (ME)

Line 220 kV Zakucac - Konjsko (HR)

Line 220 kV Zakucac - Imotski (HR)

Tie-line 220 kV Fierza (AL) - Prizren (RS)

Transformer 400/220 kV in Sibiu (RO)

Line 220 kV Lotru - Sibiu (RO) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Line 220 kV Beograd 8 - Beograd 17 (RS) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Transformer 400/220 in Maritsa East XLine 400 kV Sajoszoged - Detk (HU) X X

Tie-line 400 kV Melina (HR) - Divaca (SI)

Line 220 kV Dobrudzha - Madara (BG)

Line 220 kV Focsani Vest - Barbosi (RO)

Transformer 400/220 in Rosiori (RO)

Line 220 kV Ungheni - Iernut (RO)

Line 400 kV Constanza - Cernavoda (RO)

Line 400 kV Tantareni - Turceni (RO) X

Line 220 kV Orlovac - Konjsko (HR) X

Line 220 kV Elbasan - Cekin (AL) X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Power balance uncertainties for the territoriesConnection to Italian/Turkish market

uncertaintiesCritical element

Base

case

Power plants construction uncertainties

IMPACT OF UNCERTAINTIES ON TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS 2020:


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THE MOST CRITICAL LINES ANDTRANSFORMERS IN THE REGION

OHL 220 kV DIVACA (SLO) PADRICIANO (I)

OHL 220 kV PEHLIN (HR) DIVAA (SLO)

TR 400/220 kV TREBINJEOHL 220 kV ZAKUCAC (HR) IMOTSKI (HR)/RAMA

(BIH)

TR 400/220 kV MARITZA

OHL 400 kV CONSTANTA CERNAVODA

TR 400/220 kV ROSIORI

OHL 220 kV UNGEHENI - IERNUT


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Conclusions

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

Alba

nia

Bosnia

and

Herzegovin

a

Bulg

aria

Croatia

FYRO

M

Montenegro

Romania

Serbia+UN

MIK

Slovenia

Austria

Hungary

Greece

MVAorMW

Interconnection capacities (MVA)

Production capacities (MW)

Peak load (MW)

SEE REGIONAL TRANSMISSION

SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT:

STRONG INTERCONNECTIONSEVEN TODAY

CONGESTION MANAGEMENT

COORDINATED AUCTIONING

HIGHER NTC VALUES

INTERNAL NETWORK

REINFORCEMENTS

NEW PROJECTS IF TECHNICALLYAND ECONOMICALLY FEASIBLE

STRONGER REGULATORY

AGENCIES INDEPENDENT TSOs

COORDINATION IN PLANNING HARMONIZATION OF PLANNING

STANDARDS


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Black Sea Regional Transmission Planning

Project

Electro Power System Operator of Armenia

Energy Institute of Armenia

Electricity System Operator -- ESO EAD BulgariaGeorgian State Electrosystem (GSE)

Moldelectrica

Transelectrica

System Operator United Power System of Russia

Turkish Electricity Transmission Company

National Electric Company Ukrenergo

United States Agency for International Development

United States Energy Association


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Project

Modeled

Equivalented

RUS

GE

AZB

BUL

BL

ES

GRE

HUN

LA

LI

MKD

POL

ROM

SV

TU

UK

SCG Black Sea

MLD

ARM


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Black Sea Regional Transmission

Planning Project High voltage network-transmission network

750kV,500kV,400kV,330kV,220kV,150kV,110kV

networkGenerator units at their nominal voltage level

Step-up transformers for main generation

capacities All new substations and lines that are expected to

be operational till 2020 (according to the longterm development plans)

Development of Regional model Guidelines


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Project

Load flow Model development 2010 Winter peak,

2010 Summer off-peak 2010 Summer peak

2015 Winter peak

2015 Summer peak 2015 Summer off-peak

2020 Winter peak

2020 Summer peak

2020 Summer off-peak


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Project

Evaluation of network transfer capabilities

ETSO methodology used Identify the existing potential for electric power

trade in the region

Verify values through dynamic analysesCritical regimes (exchange)

Select outage to investigate

Monitor machines


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Working Group

Network Models Developed According to the Long Term National

Development Plans

Annual Updates Based on Significant Changes in the National

Economies

BSTP WG Developed Strong Analysis Skills and Accurate Tools

For Assessing the Efficiency of Investments, not only from

National Points Of View, but from a Regional Point of View

Completed Network Models for Middle And Long Term Horizons,

for both Steady State and Dynamic Stability Analysis

High Level Expertise Regarding Possible Transfer Scenarios andTechnical Conditions for Market Based Transactions

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