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RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015

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Page 1: RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015 · RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015. 2 2 DISSAPOINTING GLOBAL GROWTH • Global economy showing sluggish growth at 0.1% to 2.6% in 2014 and 2.7% for Q1 2015 •

RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015

Page 2: RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015 · RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015. 2 2 DISSAPOINTING GLOBAL GROWTH • Global economy showing sluggish growth at 0.1% to 2.6% in 2014 and 2.7% for Q1 2015 •

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DISSAPOINTING GLOBAL GROWTH

• Global economy showing sluggish growth at 0.1% to 2.6% in 2014 and 2.7% for Q1 2015

• Recent global market turmoil as a result of China economic slowdown and currency devaluation

• Commodity linked emerging markets have been particularly hard hit through global de-risking

and evaporation of global carry trade

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F

GDP Growth*

World High Income Developing* World Bank Forecasts July 2015

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OUTLOOK ON DOMESTIC ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

• GDP slowed to 1.5% in 2014; GDP growth flat for H1 2015. Downside risks:

› Increased pressure on output and exports due to continued structural constraints

› Protracted structural challenges limiting growth capacity

• Rand depreciation and consequent inflationary effects versus contracting economic growth

have brought into question the likelihood and timing of future interest rate hikes

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW

3.0% 3.2%

2.2% 2.2%1.5%

2.0% 1.8%2.4%

4.3%5.0%

5.7% 5.8% 6.1%

4.8%

6.2%5.4%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017e

Real GDP CPISource: Nedbank August 2015

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GLOBAL TOURISM

• International tourist arrivals grew by 4.4% in 2014 (1,1billion)

• International tourist receipts, strongly correlated to arrivals, grew by 3.7% to $1 245 billion

• Top long haul source markets in 2014 were USA, UK, China, Canada, Japan and Germany

• Arrivals to Africa grew by 2% to 56 million and are forecast to grow by 3% - 5% in 2015

• European outbound travel is expected to rise 3% in 2015

• MICE market share continues to rise as traditional business trip segment declines due to

technological solutions

GLOBAL TOURISM

› lead by strong growth in the Americas (+8%),

Asia and the Pacific (+5%) and the Middle

East (+5%)

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AFRICAN HOTEL MARKET

• Africa showed 2% increase in arrivals to 56 million while receipts showed growth at 3% to

$36 billion

• Fear of Ebola outbreak in North Africa impacted arrivals to the entire African continent

• With African markets maturing, global hotel chains are shifting towards the multi-brand

approach

SOUTH AFRICAN HOTEL MARKET

• SA tourism contributes 9.4% to GDP employing around 1,7 million people

• Domestic tourists down by 4% to 12 million (2014) contributing about 57% to total tourism

expenditure

• New visa regulations and biometric requirements suggested to have caused 7% decline in

foreign arrivals in Q1 2015

AFRICAN & SA HOTEL MARKET

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SA HOTEL DEVELOPMENT PIPELINE – SHORT TO MEDIUM TERM

• High-end hotels trading at a discount to replacement costs reducing supply risk

• Long-lead time needed to develop competitive products, up to 36 months

• Development Pipeline:

› Upscale:

– Radisson Residence CT (214 keys)

– The Houghton Hotel (143 keys of which 55 rentable)

› Midscale:

– City Lodge Johannesburg CBD (148 keys)

– Radisson Red CT (V&A) (235 keys)

– SunSquare CT (200 keys)

› Economy:

– Road Lodge Pietermaritzburg (90 keys)

– CTICC Expansion

– StayEasy CT (300 keys)

SA HOTEL PIPELINE

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RISKS FACING SA HOTEL MARKET

• Stringent visa requirements

• Deterioration of infrastructure

• Airline capacity issues

• Reduced government spending

• Labour unrest – strikes

• Security concerns

• Xenophobia

• Competition from unregulated accommodation businesses such as AirBnB

• Terror impact on African markets

• African disease outbreak such as Ebola

Page 8: RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015 · RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015. 2 2 DISSAPOINTING GLOBAL GROWTH • Global economy showing sluggish growth at 0.1% to 2.6% in 2014 and 2.7% for Q1 2015 •

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SOUTH AFRICAN TOURISM MARKET

• International tourist arrivals showed meagre growth of 0.1% to 9,5 million in 2014

SA TOURISM MARKET

2.1%-3.8%

6.4%4.6% 4.0%

5.0% 4.4%5.7%

3.8%

15.1%

3.3%

10.2%

4.7%

0.1%

-5.00%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

International Tourist Arrivals (growth %)

Global South Africa

Sources: Stats SA & UNWTO

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MAY 2014 – APRIL 2015: SOURCE MARKET OVERSEAS ARRIVALS

SA TOURISM MARKET

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

2014 2015 Sources: Stats SA

Immigration & Biometric requirements

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MAY 2014 – APRIL 2015: SOURCE MARKET OVERSEAS & AFRICA ARRIVALS

SA TOURISM MARKET

-

1 000 000

2 000 000

3 000 000

4 000 000

5 000 000

6 000 000

7 000 000

8 000 000

Overseas Africa

2014 2015 Sources: Stats SA

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NOMINAL GDP AND REVPAR GROWTH RATES

NOMINAL GDP & REVPAR GROWTH

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015Q1

% C

han

ge

GDP Growth RevPAR

FIFA World

Cup 2010

Global Recession

ZAR depreciation

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TRADING FIGURES OUTPERFORM THE OVERALL MARKET (JULY 2014 – JUNE 2015)

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

61.4% 62.3% 62.0% 62.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

HPF'14 STR'14 HPF'15 STR'15

Occupancy HPF* vs STR

R 1 162

R 992

R 1 237

R 1 051

R 0

R 200

R 400

R 600

R 800

R 1 000

R 1 200

R 1 400

HPF'14 STR'14 HPF'15 STR'15

ADR HPF* vs STR

* HPF YE June 2015 data for traditional F&V and Variable hotels (i.e. excluding conference hotels)

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HPF’S OCCUPANCY CYCLE*

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

66.3% 66.0% 68.3%

55.6%

53.4%51.4%

57.5% 60.1%61.4% 62.0%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Peak Occupancy

* HPF YE June 2015 data for traditional F&V and Variable hotels excluding conference hotels.

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YEAR END 30 JUNE 2015

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

YE2014 YE2015

Gross Rental Income

R 426 million 1.8% R 434 million

Portfolio Value

R 4,83 billion

6.8%R 5,16billion

Weighted Average Cost of Debt

9.14% -0.2% 9.12%

Total Debt

R 1,77 billion 5.1% R1,86 billion

YE2014 YE2015

Net Asset Value per Linked Unit

1 140cents

3.0%1 174cents

Distributable Debenture Interest

R240 million -2.8% R 233 million

Gearing (% of asset value)

36.7% -1.9% 36.0%

Interest Cover Ratio

2.64x -7.2% 2.45x

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YEAR END 30 JUNE 2015

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

-87%

129%

83%

-61%

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%Y-on-Y Growth

-7%

19%

5% 5%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%Y-on-Y Growth

7.91c18.08c

33.45c

13.15c

-

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015

B Linked Unit Distribution

113.08c134.63c 141.35c 148.43c

-

50

100

150

200

2012 2013 2014 2015

A Linked Unit Distribution

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Q2 AND Q3 ARE THE STRONGEST PERFORMING MONTHS IN TERMS OF EBITDA

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

Q1 (Jul-Sep) Q2 (Oct-Dec) Q3 (Jan-Mar) Q4 (Apr-Jun)’12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ’12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ’12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15 ’12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15

EBIT

DA

R’m

illion

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LEASE EXPIRY PROFILE (CY) –WEIGHTED AVERAGE EXPIRY 12.1 YEARS

THE YEAR IN REVIEW

14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38

Protea Hotel - The Winkler

Protea Hotel - The Richards

The Bayshore Inn

Protea Hotel Imperial

Protea Hotel Hazyview

Protea Hotel Hluhluwe & Safaris

Premier Hotel King David

Holiday Inn Sandton - Rivonia Road

Kopanong Hotel & Conference Centre

Crowne Plaza Johannesburg - The Rosebank

Inn on the Square

Protea Hotel Edward

Champagne Sports Resort

Protea Hotel Marine

Protea Hotel Richards Bay

Arabella Hotel and Spa

Birchwood Executive Hotel & OR Tambo…

Mount Grace Country House & Spa

Protea Hotel Victoria Junction

Radisson Blu Gautrain Hotel

Radisson Blu Waterfront

Westin Cape Town

Initial Period Option Period(s)

Non-core

Non-core

Non-core

Sold

Sold

Under Offer

Under Offer

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DEBT MATURITY PROFILE AS AT 30 JUNE 2015 (R’MILLION)

STRATEGIC PLAN

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nedbank Secured Note Unsecured Note

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CAPEX SPENT IN 2015 (R53 MILLION)

• Birchwood - Soft refurbishment of 167 rooms relaunched as “The Silverbirch Hotel”; Capex

spent: R20,7 million

• Mount Grace Country House & Spa - Development of a Mountain Bike and a Kids Club

and Replacement of all thatched roofing across the resort; Capex spent R13,2 million

• Radisson Blu Gautrain Hotel - Refurbishment of the reception level including; Capex spent

R3 million

• Radisson BluWaterfront - Refurbishment of public and reception areas including the

conference rooms and business centre; Capex spent R9,0 million

• Westin Cape Town - Construction of outside swimming pool; Capex spent R7,3 million

PROPERTY PORTFOLIO

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ACQUISITIONS

• 25 additional units at Radisson BluWaterfront (R76 million)

• 4 additional units and 25 parking bays at Radisson Blu Gautrain Hotel (R12,4 million)

• 35% undivided share in 215 rooms at Birchwood (R60 million)

PROPERTY PORTFOLIO

Radisson BluWaterfront

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DISPOSALS

• Interests in 4 Courtyard properties (sold R80 million)

• PH The Richards (sold R46 million)

• PH Hluhluwe & Safaris (sold R14,5 million)

• Premier King David (under offer)

• PH Imperial (under offer)

• PH Richards Bay (under negotiation)

• Kopanong Hotel & Conference Centre (3 sold to date)

• Bayshore Inn

• PH Hazyview

• PH The Winkler

PROPERTY PORTFOLIO

PH Hluhluwe & Safaris

PH Imperial

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SA HOSPITALITY OUTLOOK

• Pessimistic market outlook driven by concerns relating to new visa regulations negatively

affecting the foreign leisure and foreign business segments

• International source markets to continue to decline amid visa regulation ‘crisis’ somewhat

offset by weaker Rand

• Government conferencing rate ceiling expected to be relaxed in the next 12 months

• Minimal occupancy growth expectation, RevPAR growth driven by inflationary rate growth

• SA hotel development pipeline focused on Cape Town, 4-5 new developments by 2018

• Continued above inflation pressure on salaries & wages and utility costs

• Weaker Rand lead to South African leisure traveller to remain local

MARKET OUTLOOK

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• Tough trading conditions to continue until the economy picks up

• Focus on:

› Driving revenues

› Operational efficiencies

› Value extraction

• Capital restructure

• Tsogo potential transaction

› Issue of shares for property

› Conversion to single share class

• REIT conversion

THE YEAR AHEAD

Mount Grace Country House & Spa – Kids Club

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DISTRIBUTION TIMEFRAME

November

S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

8 9 10 11 12 13 14

15 16 17 18 19 20 21

22 23 24 25 26 27 28

29 30

September

S M T W T F S

1 2 3 4 5

6 7 8 9 10 11 12

13 14 15 16 17 18 19

20 21 22 23 24 25 26

27 28 29 30

Last day to trade cum interest 11 September

Linked units trade ex-interest 14 September

Record date 18 September

Payment date 21 September

Annual general meeting 13 November

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RESULTS PRESENTATION 2015