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Naas Road Retail Strategy

Alison Scott/Sean Flahive September 2009

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Retail Assessment

For the

Naas Road Land Strategic Plan

Dublin City Council

September 2009



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Table of Contents

1.0 Executive Summary

2.0 Introduction

3.0 Planning Policy

3.1 National Spatial Strategy

3.2 Regional Planning Guidelines 2004-2016

3.3 Retail Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities, 2005

3.4 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016

3.5 Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011

3.6 District Centres

3.7 Prime Urban Centres

3.8 Drimnagh Integrated Area Plan

3.9 Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan, 2009

3.10 Draft Naas Road Development Framework, 2009, South Dublin

CountyCouncil.

4.0 Qualitative Analysis of Existing District Centres

4.1 Introduction

4.2 Ballyfermot

4.3 Crumlin Shopping Centre

4.4 Crumlin Village

4.5 Inchicore

4.6 Kilmainham

4.7 Walkinstown

4.8 Kimmage

4.9 Overall Assessment

4.10 Naas Road Lands

4.11 Conclusion

5.0 Demographic Profile of the Catchment Area

5.1 Age Profile

5.2 Social Status

5.3 Employment Status

5.4 Car Ownership

5.6 Demographic Analysis & Implications for Retail Market

6.0 Quantitative Assessment

6.1 The approach

6.2 Defining the catchment Area

6.3 Population Projections in catchment Area

6.4 Average Expenditure Per head on Convenience and Comparison Goods

6.5 Spending Forecasts

6.6 Total Available Expenditure in the base year and beyond to 2018



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6.7 Existing Retail floor space in Catchment Area (District Centres)

6.8 Existing and Permitted Retail Floor space in Catchment Area

6.9 Turnover of Existing Floor space

6.10 Remaining retail floor space capacity in catchment area

6.11 Remaining Capacity having regard to outflows of expenditure

6.12 Additional Floor space requirements in catchment area

6.13 Quantitative Assessment – Conclusion.

7.0 Conclusions

Appendices



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1.0 Executive Summary

Policy Context

Dublin City Council commissioned the Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan in 2008 for

lands located around the junction of the Naas Road, Long Mile Road, Walkinstown

Avenue and Kylemore Road. The main purpose of the Plan was to establish the

potential of the area and to identify the „Key Moves‟ necessary for the creation of a

new high quality mixed use neighbourhood.

Two core recommendations emerged from the Naas Road Land Strategic Plan

(1) to designate an area in and around the junction of the Naas Road and

Walkinstown Avenue as a Prime Urban Centre and (2) to rezone a similar but

not identical block of lands from Z6 to Z14 to provide for a more sustainable mix

of uses and activities.

The proposed Prime Urban Centre will accommodate a mix of uses including retail,

commercial, leisure and community. However, as it is anticipated that a significant

quantum of retail may be delivered at the core of the Prime Urban Centre, Dublin City

Council has prepared a retail impact assessment. The purpose of the assessment is to

establish the quantum and type of retail that can be supported at this location without

detriment to the study area and a wider area, including lands within the administrative

area of South Dublin County Council.

In light of the limitations imposed by current market demands caused by the severe

economic downturn Ireland is experiencing, Dublin City Council has chosen a long

term projection period of up to 2018, by which time it is anticipated that the economic

climate will have significantly improved.

South Dublin County Council is also in the process of preparing a framework plan -

the Draft Naas Road Development Framework Plan (2009), for an extensive area of

circa 740 hectares, a mixture of brown and greenfield lands. The eastern boundary

area of their plan area adjoins the administrative area of Dublin City Council. The

Draft Plan states that the planned Prime Urban Centre within the City Council‟s

administrative area will help support the future development of these lands

The Retail Impact Assessment

For the purposes of this study, the catchment area is defined as a 3km band, as

measured from the junction of Kylemore Road and the Naas Road. A number of

existing district and prime urban centres are located within the catchment including:

Crumlin Shopping Centre (PUC), Ballyfermot (PUC) Inchicore, Kimmage,

Walkinstown, and Crumlin Village. The catchment area also extends into the

administrative area of South Dublin County Council.



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The population projections are based on information supplied by the Dublin

Transportation Office as augmented by the potential population growth projected for

the two study areas identified in the Naas Road Strategic Framework Plan (Dublin

City Council) and the Draft Naas Road Development Framework Plan (South Dublin

County Council).

The qualitative assessment has established that the existing centres serve a very local

need. The assessment would suggest that they have not developed effectively as

district centres, failing to provide a viable retail core and a comprehensive range of

essential local services and facilities. Indeed, the assessment reveals that most of the

centres have limited capacity to expand with the possible exceptions of Ballyfermot or

Crumlin Shopping Centre or to develop into a high quality urban centre, focal points

for the local communities.

The quantitative assessment has estimated the existing quantum of retail development

in the area and also estimated the additional floor space requirements in the catchment

area up to 2018, based on population projections and estimated retail turnover. As

part of this assessment, an allowance has been made for leakages in expenditure to

centres outside the catchment area.

The assessment has determined that there is an additional retail floorspace

requirement in the catchment area for approximately 39,929 net retail floor space.

The assessment also revealed that there is a greater floor space requirement for

comparison shopping than convenience shopping in the catchment area. These

figures should be seen as indicative only.

In conclusion, the retail impact assessment has determined that the existing District

Centres have only the capacity to meet the immediate needs of local communities, are

not functioning as proper District Centres, and have limited potential to expand.

Furthermore, the retail impact assessment establishes that there is an anticipated

demand for additional retail floor space in the general vicinity of the Naas Road

Lands, including lands in South Dublin County Council‟s administrative area.

It is evident from the Naas Road Strategic Lands Plan that the proposed Prime Urban

Centre is the optimum location within this quadrant of the city to provide a viable

retail core (including convenience and comparison shopping based on a 40:60 split)

alongside a comprehensive range of essential local services as it offers a highly

accessible location and the opportunity to deliver a high quality urban environment.



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2.0 Introduction

Dublin City Council commissioned the Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan in 2008 for

lands located around the junction of the Naas Road, Long Mile Road, Walkinstown

Avenue and Kylemore Road. The scope of the strategic plan extends to approximately

60 hectares of zoned lands. The area was selected because of its significant

development potential, but also critically it‟s prime location on an important entry

point to the city. It has with good transportation links to the wider metropolitan area

including Heuston Station, the City Centre, Tallaght and other key destinations. It is

in close proximity of the Kildare Railway Line providing national connectivity and

the M50 Motorway providing high quality access to other established and emerging

development areas.

The main purpose of the Plan was to establish the potential of the area and to identify

the „Key Moves‟ necessary for the creation of a new high quality mixed use

neighbourhood. Two core recommendations emerged from the Naas Road Lands

Strategic Plan:

1) The designation of an area in and around the junction of the Naas Road and

Walkinstown Avenue as a Prime Urban Centre (a higher order district centre)

2) The rezoning of a similar but not identical block of lands from Z6 to Z14 to

provide for a more sustainable mix of uses and activities.

It is intended that the proposed Prime Urban Centre will accommodate a mix of uses

including retail, commercial, leisure and community. However, as it is anticipated that

a significant quantum of retail may be delivered at the core of the Prime Urban

Centre, Dublin City Council has prepared a retail impact assessment. The purpose of

the retail impact assessment is to establish the quantum and type of retail that can be

supported at this location without detriment to the study area and wider catchment

area, including lands within the administrative area of South Dublin County Council.

In preparing the retail impact assessment, Dublin City Council acknowledges the

opportunities presented by the Plan to radically transform the Naas Road area and

create a high quality mixed use neighbourhood, but also recognises current market

demands and the severe economic downturn that Ireland is currently experiencing. In

light of the above Dublin City Council has chosen a long-term projection retail

forecast up to 2018, at which time it is anticipated that Ireland‟s economic climate

will be more favourable.



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3.0 Planning Policy

3 .1 National Spatial Strategy 2002 - 2020

The National Spatial Strategy(NSS) sets out the national planning framework to co-

ordinate future development and planning in Ireland in a sustainable manner. The

strategy sets out the importance of Dublin as National and International economic

drivers and promotes the continued growth and development of the Greater Dublin

Area. The strategy clearly states that it is not desirable for this growth to continue to

spread outwards into the surrounding counties, and that it is essential to consolidate

the physical growth of the city, which should in turn be supported by effective land

use policies for the urban area, which in turn allow for the public transport system to

function more effectively.

The proposal to upgrade the Naas Roads Lands to a Prime Urban Centre will

consolidate the growth of these lands on a strategic transportation corridor, which is in

keeping with the National Spatial Strategy.

3.2 Regional Planning Guidelines 2004-2016

The Regional Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Area (RPGs) were adopted

in 2004. The RPGs set out a robust sustainable planning framework for the Greater

Dublin Area with a core function of delivering the National Spatial Strategy (NSS) to

County and City level. The RPGs seek to develop the Greater Dublin area as an

internationally competing City-Region with all areas located in the GDA collectively

contributing to this success. The settlement strategy adopted divided the area into two

development policy areas- (i) the metropolitan area and (ii) the hinterland area.

For the metropolitan area the key policy objective is consolidation, with a much-

enhanced multi-modal transport system. For the City Centre this requires increased

densities for residential developments particularly at public transport nodes.

For the hinterland areas development is to be focused primarily into identified towns

separated from each other by a strategic green belt; with an increase in overall

densities and a high level of employment activity, high order shopping and a full

range of social facilities in the key towns. The longer-term objective of these towns is

to achieve a strong level of self-sufficiency with limited commuting to the

metropolitan area. Both to support economic activity and to accommodate existing

and some future commuting these towns should be well linked to Dublin by good road

and public transport infrastructure.

In relation to retail and commercial policy the RPGGDA recommended that planning

authorities



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- Ensure that additional retail floor space is directed to existing centres with

significant population bases and those centres selected for additional

population growth.

- Ensure that the future provision of significant retail developments within the

GDA is consistent with the policies and recommendations of the Retail

Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities and, following review, with the

Retail Planning Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area.

3.3 Retail Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities, 2005

Government policy with regard to retail development is outlined in the Retail

Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities 2005 (RPGs). The Guidelines provide a

framework to guide local authorities in preparing development plans and in assessing

planning applications for retail development.

The guidelines identify five key Policy objectives

To ensure that in future all development plans incorporate clear policies and

proposals for retail development

competitive and healthy environment for the retail industry of the future

To promote forms of development which are easily accessible particularly by

public transport

To support the continuing role of town and district centres

To presume against large retail centres located adjacent or close to existing

new or planned national roads/motorways.

The Retail Planning Guidelines state that the preferred location for new retail

development where practicable and viable, is within a town centre (or district or major

village centre).

3.4 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016

Under the „Retail Planning Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area (RPS/GDA)‟ it is

stated that -

The Strategy for each county needs to respect the significant differences in the role of

shopping centres throughout the Greater Dublin Area. Dublin City Centre, which has

the dominant role, is the preferred centre for most high order shopping. Within the

Dublin City Council boundary considerable capacity for additional comparison floor

space was identified up to 2006 and beyond. It is considered that the City could

support new shopping development in the Docklands area and elsewhere in the City

Centre, the expansion of district shopping in the suburbs, one or two retail parks

together with the equivalent of up to two superstores in suburban Dublin.

The Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area proposes a five-tier hierarchy for the

categorisation of retail centres within the GDA. (see Appendix 1)

- Level 1 Metropolitan Area

- Level 2 Major Town Centres / County Town Centres

- Level 3 Town and District Centres / Sub-county town centres

- Level 4 Neighbourhood Centres / Local Centres - small towns and villages



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- Level 5 Corner Shops / smaller villages

The Naas Road PUC Retail Core would be defined as a Level 3 District Centre. Also

included within this category are Ballyfermot and Crumlin Shopping Centre. A Level

3 District Centre includes at least one Supermarket/superstore, and a range of non

retail services. The DOEHLG Retail Planning Guidelines set an upper floor limit of

20,000m2

for such centres where appropriate. However the Retail Strategy has

acknowledged that in areas of new high density developments with in excess of

10,000 population an additional 15,000m2

of lettable floor space could be considered.

In relation to the non retail services the Retail Strategy recommends that an additional

20% floor area be added to the Comparison Floor space assessment in order to reflect

the requirements of uses such as hairdressers, bookies and coffee shops.

3.5 Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011

Appendix 7 of the Dublin City Development Plan 2005-11, sets out the hierarchy with

particular reference to Dublin City Council.

Table 1: Retail Centre Hierarchy

Level GDA Classification Dublin City Council/Areas

Level 1 Metropolitan Centre Central Shopping Area

Level 2 Major Town Centre None

Level 3 Town/District Centres District Centre Category A

District Centre Category B

District Centre Category C

Market Streets

Level 4 Neighbourhood Centres Neighbourhood Centres

Level 5 Corner Shops Local/Corner Shops

The Retail Chapter in the Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011 sets out the

follows policies.

Policy S1

„It is the policy of Dublin City Council to have regard to the Retail Planning

Guidelines and the Retail Planning Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area (RPS/GDA)

in preparing plans and in the assessment of planning applications for retail

developments‟

Policy S3

„It is the policy of Dublin City Centre to maintain and reinforce the dominant position

of the central shopping core as the premier shopping area in the State.

Policy S5



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„It is the policy of Dublin City Council to seek to maintain and strengthen the existing

district and neighbourhood centres. Where such centres are in close proximity to

residential areas, twenty four hour shopping and 7/24 shopping shall not be

permitted.‟

3.6 District Centres

The district centres in the Dublin City Development Plan are defined by the zoning

objective Z4 on the land use maps in the Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011.

The zoning objective seeks „To provide for and improve mixed services facilities‟

The District Centres within the catchment area in the South West quadrant of the city

can be broken down into the following sub categories

- Category A Centres – This category includes the Prime Urban Centres of

Crumlin Shopping Centre, and Ballyfermot,

- Category B Centres – Kimmage,

- Category C Centres – Crumlin Village, Inchicore, Walkinstown, and other

small centres not included in categories A & B above

Town and/or District Centres are widely distributed throughout the Metropolitan

Area. District Centres are defined in the Retail Planning – Guidelines for Planning

Authorities (2005) as: -

“Purpose built district shopping centres are normally provided within the built up

area of major conurbations or in the suburbs of large towns. They are usually

anchored by a large food store and contain a range of unit shops and non-retail

service outlets (such as banks, post office or hairdressers). They perform an

important retail function for the local community living within a 15-20 minute drive

time of the site. There is no clear size threshold for a district centre although,

depending on the density of population in the catchment area, they are likely to

comprise about 10, 000 square metres in or adjacent to the main towns and up to 20,

000 square metres within some parts of Dublin.”

In addition the Dublin City Development Plan 2005-11 defines District Centres as

follows: -

“These centres are usually anchored by convenience shopping. They offer middle to

lower order comparison retailing and also contain a range of service uses. Typically

they serve catchments within 10-15 minutes drive time, but density of population and

the proximity of adjoining centres determine the size of their catchments. With the

consolidation and expansion of the metropolitan area, the potential exists for further

level 3 centres to be developed with planned residential communities.”

3.7 Prime Urban Centres

The Dublin City Development Plan 2005-11 identifies 8 Prime Urban Centres. In the

South West quadrant of the city there are two existing PUC‟s, Crumlin Shopping

Centre(PUC 8) and Ballyfermot,(PUC 5)



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The Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011 defines PUC‟s as areas that have, or

will have in the future, the capacity, by reason of their existing size, accessibility to

public transport and/or established urban form, to deliver on a range of requirements,

the most important of which are:

- An increased density of development

- A viable retail and commercial core

- A comprehensive range of high quality community and social services

- A distinctive spatial identity with a high quality physical environment.‟

3.8 Drimnagh Integrated Area Plan

The Drimnagh Integrated Area Plan (IAP) sits within the hierarchy of plans.

The objectives of the IAP include preparing guidelines for key development sites

including Davitt Road, The Crumlin Shopping Centre, Childrens Hospital and

Glenview Industrial Estate. It is also an objective to improve the shopping areas in

Drumlin Road, Drimnagh Road, Galtymore Road, and Errigal Road.

3. 9 Naas Roads Lands Strategic Plan 2009

The study area for the Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan is located approximately 6km

to the south west of Dublin City Centre. The „Plan area‟ comprises lands located

along and in close proximity to the major national primary route of the N7 Naas Road

and the regional routes of Long Mile Road, Kylemore Road and Walkinstown

Avenue.

The aim of the Strategic Plan is to facilitate and co-ordinate the redevelopment of

lands within the Naas Road study area and to ensure that new development interacts

positively with the local and city-wide environment. The Plan seeks to promote

connectivity within the study area and outwards to emerging development areas in the

locality as well as making provision for meaningful permeability, both physically and

socially to existing local communities.

The area‟s existing qualities are currently characterised by its industrial, commercial

and infrastructural land uses, and it is proposed to harness and improve on these

qualities with a view to establishing a significant mixed-use development node. It is

considered that the Naas Road Land‟s potential will be best unlocked through its

partial designation as a Prime Urban Centre, as defined in whole or in part by a Z14

zoning.

In summary, the Plan proposes a strategy to guide future sustainable development

within the Naas Road Lands area, based upon the following objectives:

An Identification of the Big Moves for the area: The Plan identifies the „big

moves‟ - the essential physical infrastructure, connections and urban

framework required to support the co-ordinated and integrated redevelopment

of the Plan area.



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A Proposal for a Prime Urban Centre: The plan proposes the partial

designation of the study area as a Prime Urban Centre, defined in whole or in

part by a Z14 zoning. A „mixed-use‟ area is proposed at the core of this larger

Prime Urban Centre, an area to the south of the Naas Road, in close proximity

to the Naas Road/Walkinstown junction. This core will accommodate a mix of

retail, commercial, residential and community uses, uses necessary to ensure

the creation of a „living community‟ of residents, workers and visitors at the

heart of the Naas Road Lands Plan area.

A Future Movement Strategy: The Plan proposes the provision of strategic

movement routes for pedestrians, cyclists, public transport and vehicles that

respond to the existing qualities of the Plan area and that are fundamental to

healthy urban growth of the area.

A Provision of Public Realm and Collective Space: The Plan proposes the

provision of quality public realm / collective space that corresponds to key

movement routes and green spaces will enhance the amenity and legibility of

the area.

A Rediscovering of the Areas Landscape Structure: This strategic plan

seeks to rediscover, re-establish and, where appropriate, reinterpret the

landscape structure, which in turn will assist in providing a robust urban

design structure for future development.

Following a public consultation process, the South Central Area Committee approved

the Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan on the 20th

May 2008 and is now at

implementation stage. The Plan is non-statutory and provides a broad strategic

framework for the future development of the study area.

3.10 Draft Naas Road Development Framework (2009) South Dublin County

Council

The draft Naas Road Development Framework prepared by South County Dublin

covers an extensive area of circa 740 hectares, a mixture of brown and Greenfield

lands. The study area may loosely be defined as extending in an east-west direction

from the boundary with Dublin City Council to Newlands Cross, with a north-south

extent of around 500 metre as measured from the centre of the Naas Road in each

direction.

The most relevant elements of the draft Naas Road Development Framework to

Dublin City relate to the redevelopment of lands located between the city boundary

and the Red Cow Interchange. Subject to infrastructural and open space changes,

these lands have been earmarked for the first phase of development from 2010 to

2016. The Draft Framework Plan states that the future development of these lands will

be determined by the potential offered by three „conditions‟ – the transformation of

the Naas Road into an urban boulevard, the creation of a linear park wit a triple

function of connecting, providing local amenities and ameliorating existing surface

water problems and the proximity of the planned Prime Urban Centre within the City

Council‟s administrative area.



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In terms of the main strategies emerging from the draft plan and addressing the core

issues of connectivity, open space, land use and density, the various strategies

proposed by South Dublin County Council in the Development Framework are

considered to be consistent and complementary to the City Council‟s Naas Road

Lands Strategic Plan.



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4.0 Qualitative Assessment of District Centres in proximity to the Naas Road

Lands.

4.1 Introduction

There are a number of Prime Urban Centres and district centres located within the

South West Quadrant of Dublin City, a number of which fall within the Naas Road

lands catchment area. These are Ballyfermot PUC, Chapelizod, Inchicore,

Walkinstown, Drimnagh, Crumlin PUC, Kilmainham and Kimmage which is just on

the border of the study area.

The aim of the qualitative assessment is to determine whether or not these retail areas

are functioning effectively, and whether or not they are providing for a purely local

area or serving a wider area.

There are 7 existing centres located within the catchment area of the plan as defined

in the Quantitative study of this plan. These are:

Ballyfermot,

Crumlin Shopping Centre,

Crumlin Village,

Inchicore

Kilmainham,

Walkinstown

Kimmage



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As part of the qualitative analysis the Roads & Traffic Planning Division undertook a

comparative transportation analysis of the existing district centres within the

catchment area. This exercise involved assessing the current and future accessibility

of the centres with reference to existing and proposed public transport and sustainable

means of transport including cycling and walking. Car and cycle parking was also

assessed. The report also assesses the Naas Road Framework Plan area in terms of its

existing and future accessibility and its potential to accommodate large-scale retail

floor area.

4.2 Ballyfermot

The retail core or Z4 area of Ballyfermot is situated between the junction of the

Ballyfermot Road and Kylemore Road and the junction of the Ballyfermot Road and

Le Fanu Road. There are 3 separate Z4/retail areas in Ballyfermot. The first and

largest is the strip of retail and retail service units to the north of the Ballyfermot

Road. The second is the Tesco outlet to the south of the Ballyfermot Road. Finally the

third area of retail in Ballyfermot is located around the junction of the Le Fanu Road

and the Ballyfermot Road.

The retail strip north of the Ballyfermot Road comprises a two storey building with

approximately thirty units on the ground floor with commercial and retail service uses

on the first floor. The retail units comprise mainly independent comparison and

convenience retailers. There are also take away units, financial services and a bulky

household goods outlet.

The retail units which are located adjacent to the junction of Le Fanu Road and the

Ballyfermot Road are also two storey units with retail, retail services and food and

drink outlets on the ground floor and commercial and professional services in the first

floor of some of the units. There are two prominent vacancies, which detract from the

amenity of the centre, which are the former Gala Bingo Hall and the former Iceland

outlet.

There is a large amount of available car parking within Ballyfermot located at the

Tesco site, the Iceland site and along Ballyfermot Road and Le Fanu Road adjacent to

the retail units. The majority of car parking within the area is „pay and display‟.

Ballyfermot is a busy centre with a high demand for on street car parking. In addition

it would appear that a number of people travel to Ballyfermot via bus. There are bus

stops located adjacent to both the Tesco site and Iceland site (outside the Gala). It is

noted that there is also a taxi rank located within the Tesco site.



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There are a number of cycle parking stands located along Ballyfermot Road however

there is no cycle lane. Ballyfermot is considered to be adequately served with regard

to pedestrian facilities in the form of both generous footpaths and crossing facilities.

The overall area would not be considered to provide a pleasant shopping environment.

Furthermore, the range of retail facilities is considered to be limited. The area is

dominated by uses such as retail services (e.g. beauticians), pharmacies, bookmakers,

professional services (e.g. solicitors) and some lower order comparison goods outlets.

4.3 Crumlin Shopping Centre

Crumlin Shopping Centre is located adjacent to the junction of Sundrive Road and

Crumlin Road. The shopping centre is dated, poorly designed and is in decline. The

shopping centre has a poor quality retail environment that is characterised by a high

level of vacancy and the Shopping Centre appears to have low levels of pedestrian

footfall. The shopping centre is anchored by a Dunnes Stores and a Tesco outlet but

there is a significant vacancy rate in the smaller units with only three units occupied.

A bus stop and taxi rank are located adjacent to the entrance of the centre along the

Crumlin Road. There are good pedestrian links to the site in the form of wide

footpaths and pedestrian crossings.

There are 490 car parking spaces associated with the shopping centre. These spaces

are accessed from the Crumlin Road. In addition there is limited unrestricted car

parking located within the surrounding residential streets.



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It is considered that the shopping centre has a local walking catchment and wider

driving catchment from the residential estates within Crumlin and areas such as

Drimnagh, Inchicore, Rialto and Kilmainham.

4.4 Crumlin Village

Crumlin Village is located at the junction of St. Agnes Road and Windmill Road. The

village contains a Garda Station, a Post Office depot and a number of independent

retail, retail services and food and drink outlets located on the ground floor of two

storey buildings. There is a Londis outlet and a Centra outlet in the village. There is a

low level of vacancies and retailers appear to be trading well. However, given the

small number of units within this district centre, the range of services being provided

is quiet limited.

A large volume of unrestricted car parking is available, in the church grounds,

adjacent to retail units and along sections of St. Agnes Road. It is noted that bollards

are located along sections of the street to ensure vehicles do not park on the footpath.

It is noted that Crumlin Village is a busy centre with high demand for on street car

parking.

Crumlin Village is considered to be adequately served with regard to pedestrian

facilities in the form of both wide footpaths and crossing facilities. There is no cycle

lane along Agnes Road and it would appear that no bicycle parking is provided.

There is a limited variety of retail and commercial units located in Crumlin Village.

This combined with the fact that there is no anchor store, ensures that residents go to

nearby shopping centres for larger items.



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4.5 Inchicore

Inchicore District Centre is located at the junction of Tyrconnell Road, Emmet Road

and Grattan Crescent. The centre has a pleasant environment with good quality street

paving, some older buildings of architectural merit and some recent high quality

mixed-use developments. There is a Tesco Express and a Eurospar located on the

ground floor of two of these recent mixed-use developments.

There is a low level of vacancies, the most notable vacancy being the former

foodmarket located on Emmet Road. Apart from the recent mixed-use schemes the

centre is characterized by a traditional Irish streetscape with two and three storey

buildings. The ground floor of these units are occupied predominantly by retail

services, professional services, financial services, food and drink outlets and

independent retailers.

Inchicore is considered to be adequately served with regard to pedestrian facilities in

the form of both footpaths and crossing facilities. There are no cycle lanes within

Inchicore Village. There are however a limited number of bicycle parking stands.

There is a wide variety of retail and commercial units located within Inchicore. The

majority of units are located at the junction of Tyrconnell Road, Grattan Crescent and

Emmet Road with limited on street „pay and display‟ car parking spaces located along

these roads. The units have a local walking and driving catchment. Although there is a

Tesco Express located on Tyrconnell Road there is no large anchor store. Therefore it

is considered that residents would travel out of Inchicore for larger shopping trips.

There does not appear to be potential within the district centre to provide for a large

anchor store.



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4.6 Kilmainham

Kilmainham District Centre is located at the junction of South Circular Road /

Emmett Road / Old Kilmainham.

The majority of retail units in this District Centre are located on the South Circular

Road. These include a Spar, hairdressers, dry cleaners, laundry service and DCC local

area office. A Four Star Pizza is located on opposite site of Emmet Road. All the units

at this district centre would appear to be relatively small in size, with no room for

expansion at this location. Therefore it is considered that residents would travel out of

Kilmainham for larger/weekly shopping trips. The number and size of the units at this

location is very limited, providing very restricted shopping facilities. This District

Centre clearly works well at a local level only and does not cater for the wider area.

There is no car parking outside the retail units on the South Circular Road due to

double yellow lines however there are 2 pull in bays on the opposite side of the road.

Pay and display parking is available on Emmett Road.

A pedestrian crossing is located outside the retail units South Circular Road. However

there is no crossing at the heavily trafficked junction of South Circular Road / Emmett

Road / Old Kilmainham.

There is a cycle lane along South Circular Road adjacent to the retail units however it

is noted that there is no bicycle parking.

4.7 Walkinstown



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Walkinstown District Centre comprises two main areas, which include the Superquinn

shopping centre and the retail units fronting the Drimnagh Road. The Superquinn

shopping centre is the main anchor retail outlet in the area. The shopping centre is

dated and does not create an attractive shopping environment as it is a poorly

designed, stand alone shopping centre which is removed from other retail and service

outlets located on Drimnagh Road. The units fronting onto the Drimnagh Road

comprise traditional two storey units, which are similar to those in Kimmage and

Crumlin Village.

There is a large amount of available car parking including the Superquinn car park,

the halfway house car park and along Drimnagh Road / Long Mile Road adjacent to

the retail units. Walkinstown is a busy centre with a high demand for on street car

parking on Drimnagh Road / Long Mile Road. It is noted that there are a number of

bus stops within Walkinstown and a taxi rank located along the Drimnagh Road.

There is a cycle lane located along Drimnagh Road / Long Mile Road and a limited

number of bicycle parking stands are provided adjacent to the retail units.

Walkinstown is considered to be adequately served with regard to pedestrian facilities

in the form of both footpaths and crossing facilities.

It is considered that due to the fragmented nature of the overall centre, which is

caused by the distance between the Superquinn outlet and the heavy vehicular flows

on the Drimnagh road, there is limited potential to create a consolidated district centre

with a pleasant shopping environment.

4.8 Kimmage

Kimmage District Centre is located on Sundrive Road and is focused on the

Superquinn shopping centre and retail units located at the junction of Sundrive Road

and Kimmage Road Lower. The Superquinn shopping centre also includes eleven

smaller retail units. There are three and two storey buildings located along Sundrive

Road and Lower Kimmage Road respectively which are predominantly occupied by

retail services, professional services and food and drink outlets located on the ground

floor.

A large volume of unrestricted car parking is available, both within the Superquinn

Shopping Centre and adjacent to retail units. On street „pay and display‟ parking is

also available on Sundrive Road. It is noted that bollards are located along sections of



22

the street to ensure vehicles do not park on the footpath. It is noted that Kimmage is a

busy centre with high demand for on street car parking. There is also a taxi rank on

Sundrive Road adjacent to the Superquinn Shopping Centre.

The centre appears to be trading well as there are few vacancies and a high level of

pedestrian footfall in the area. There is one recent development opposite the

Superquinn outlet, which has vacant office units to let at first floor level with a

bookmakers and an off license at ground floor level. Similar to the other district

centres, the area is dominated by vehicular movements and there is no formal public

open space. The Superquinn outlet, which is dated, has a car park located at the front

of the unit and the centre is focused on a busy junction between Sundrive Road and

Lower Kimmage Road. There is no formal public open space provided in the area.

There would appear to be limited opportunities for the provision of a more modern,

pedestrian friendly retail development.

4.9 Overall Assessment

It is considered that district centres such as Ballyfermot, Walkinstown, Kimmage,

Inchicore and Crumlin Village have naturally evolved as retail and service centres for

surrounding residential areas and they have not been designed to function effectively

has district centres. They do not have the characteristics of a high quality urban

environment or a high quality retailing environment. The Retail Strategy for the

Greater Dublin Area has defined such centres as „older Inner Suburban Centres,

which would previously had reasonable market share (in a smaller market), but now

no longer have competitive tenant mixes, suitable shop sizes and attractive shopping

environments.‟1

The majority of the district centres that have been assessed are dominated by

vehicular movements. The centres therefore do not have a pedestrian friendly

environment. There is generally a lack of good quality formal public space within the

district centres.

It is considered that there is limited potential within the existing district centres in the

catchment area to create a high quality urban environment with an increased density

of development.

It is questionable whether the district centres assessed above have the potential to

expand and strengthen the retail provision, as well as other services and facilities in

line with the Development Plan‟s definition of district centres. The Retail Strategy

recognises that recent trends are towards the provision of larger stores with a greater

range of produce, which in some cases includes comparision goods. It also

acknowledges that many of the existing supermarkets in inner suburban centres are

too small to offer the full range of goods at low prices. This can result in a significant

proportion of the population of such centres travelling some distance to shop.

It is considered that the Naas Road Strategic Framework Study area contains a

number of key sites, which provide an opportunity to create a high quality urban

environment with a level of retail provision, which is appropriate to a district or town

centre as well as an extensive range of other leisure and community uses necessary to

1 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016 - p30



23

support new and established communities. It is considered that the development of a

Level 3 centre at this location would be in keeping with the provisions of the Retail

Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, and would provide a valuable contribution to

the shopping needs within the catchment area. The population in the study area will

also increase, as there are significant opportunities for redevelopment in the area that

will be facilitated by the Strategic Framework Plan.

4.10 Naas Road Lands

The Naas Road Strategic Plan area is already very accessible by public transport with

Luas and a QBC running through the area. (It will also benefit from the planned

expansion of the Luas network as outlined in Transport 21 with proposed route to the

Luas line (F) and Citywest (A1)) When compared with the existing district centres, it

is well served by public transport and this position looks set to further improve. It is

also the only centre with sufficient land available to accommodate not only substantial

additional retail floor area but also a full range of other services and facilitates that go

to make up a sustainable urban centre and focus of a residential community lies a “A

Living Community”.

4.11 Conclusion

Many of the centres studied are served by bus only with varying levels of service and

frequency. There are no proposals for additional public transport facilities that would

benefit these centres. Other district centres that currently enjoy accessibility due to

the presence of Luas and good bus services such as Kilmainham, Inchicore and

Drimnagh, do not appear to have capacity within the centres to accommodate

additional large scale retail development even in the form of a standard anchor

supermarket. It is considered that these areas in particular, which currently lack large

anchor supermarkets and which are linked to the Naas Road via Luas, would benefit

from retail provision in this area.

This qualitative assessment clearly indicates that the study area is potentially the most

accessible centre in the south west part of the city. It is currently served by Luas red

line which links to mainline rail and which is currently being extended to City West

and Docklands. It will in future also be served by line F which will link the site to

Lucan. The study area is also well served by bus. Having regard to the site‟s existing

and future accessibility and to the land available at this location, it is considered that

this is a good location to accommodate additional retail development.

In conclusion therefore, the Naas Road Framework Plan area is potentially the most

accessible centre and has the most capacity to accommodate large-scale retail use. In

order to accommodate this development sustainably however, every effort should be

made to provide for and improve pedestrian and cycle facilities and linkages to public

transport and to restrict the availability of car parking.



24

5.0 Demographic Profile of the Catchment Area

5.1Age Profile

As part of the Naas Roads Lands Strategic Plan, a demographic profile was compiled

for the study area. The figures are based on a 5 minute and 10 minute catchment of

the study area.

The age profile is older than the national average. Within a 5 minute catchment of the

site there is a low percentage of persons under 19years (23.7% ) compared with the

national average of 29.5%. In terms of the middle aged brackets, 31% approximately

are aged between 25 and 44 years and 22% between 45 – 64 years. Overall the

catchment area compared to the National average would have a lower percentage of

0-14 year olds and a higher than average percentage of over 65+.

Within a 10 minute catchment of the site the age profile is slightly younger. 46.6% of

the population are aged between 20-44, with only 9% aged 65+. In National terms the

catchment has a lower than average concentration of 0-19 year olds and over 45 year

olds.

5.2 Social Status

Within a 5 minute catchment of the study area, there is a high proportion of working

population who are skilled manual workers, 20% are state pensioners, 19% are semi-

skilled workers, 19% are intermediate management. The lowest proportion or

workers is in higher management positions which accounts for only 4%.

5.3 Employment Status

In terms of employment status in the study area, it is noted from the plan that over

half of the study area are classified as working. The unemployment rate in the study

area was higher than the national average, accounting for 7% compared to national

average of 5.7%,

5.4 Car Ownership

The figures are taken from the Naas Roads Lands Plan and are taken within a 5

minute catchment analysis and a 10 minute.

From the report submitted as part of the Naas Road Lands Plan it is noted that car

ownership levels within the study area were high. 44% of households in the study area

have at least 1 car within a 5 minute catchment and 39% within 10 minutes. 19% had

two cars and 23% owned two within 10 minutes, & 4% had three or more cars. It

was noted however that in the study area, one third of households within a 5 and 10

minute catchment do not have access to a car, making them reliant on public

transport.



25

5.5 Demographic analysis and implications for the Retail Market

The Nass Road Strategic Plan envisages that the upgrading of the Naas Road lands to

a Prime Urban Centre will enhance its commercial viability for potential retail

development. The designation would essentially diversify the mix of retail units in the

area and create a retail core with surrounding streetscape. The immediate catchment

area has a mature and established population, with an above average concentration

of individuals over 65 and below average concentration of individuals less than 19

years of age. This factor is attributed to the composition of housing in the area which

comprises of low density housing estates . This contrasts with the 10 minute

catchment area of the subject lands which have over four times the amount of housing

than the five minute catchment, and as a result has a more diversified and younger

population. The immediate catchment area does not have sufficient access to

satisfactory retail provision, when one considers that over a third of the households

within a five minute catchement of the area does not own a car, and a further 40% of

households own just one car.

There is a lack of adequate retail provision in the area , especially in terms of a large

supermarket and related services to carter for the existing population. The nearby

district centres do provide supermarkets and a variety of smaller retail units, but they

are generally outdated and would not serve the needs of the new Prime Urban Centre

at the Naas Road Lands.

Based on the current and potential demographics of the local area and the future

quantum of retail supply planned for the west suburban market, there is undoubtedly

demand for prime urban centre retail accommodation in the area.



26

6.0 Quantitative Assessment

The purpose of the quantitative assessment is to provide a broad assessment of the

additional retail floor space required in the Naas Road Lands, up to 2018. Projected

capacities are presented up to 2018, to allow for a longer term broad examination of

potential retail floor space capacity in the catchment area. The base year for the

purposes of this study is 2006.

The quantitative assessment can only provide an indicative quantum of retail floor

space that should be achieved in the study area. The assessment involves making

population projections up to 2018, based on natural increases in population growth

and also taking into account significant growth planned in residential development in

the Naas Roads Lands Strategic Plan , and also estimations of residential growth in

the draft South Dublin County Council Lands which border the study area.

As part of the assessment Dublin City Council has made a number of assumption

including population expenditure, turnover and other factors. The information on

existing retail floorspace is sourced from the Retail Strategy for the Great Dublin

Area.1

Based on the assumptions and estimates of existing and predicted retail floor space

the quantitative assessment can only provide a broad indicator of the anticipated need

for additional floorspace.

6.1 The Methodology: To determine the existing and future capacity for Retail Floor space the following

steps are taken:

1) The population was projected to 2018 for a defined catchment area.

2) The average expenditure per head of population was extrapolated to 2018.

3) An evaluation was made of the retail floor space in the catchment, existing

and permitted.

4) The turnover of existing floor space was estimated

5) In order to determine the capacity of the are to sustain additional retail

development it was necessary to determine Additional Retail Capacity.

6) Provision was made to consider outflows in expenditure and the Capacity of

Retail Floor space in the catchment area was adjusted accordingly

6.2 Defining the Catchment Area

Dublin City Council in liaison with the Dublin Transportation office, undertook an

assessment of the appropriate catchment area for the Naas Road lands.

The catchment area for the basis of this study comprised of two concentric rings, of 1

and 3km based on the identified centre of the study area. The centre was taken as

1 Retail Strategy for the Great Dublin Area, 2008-2016



27

the junction of between Kylemore Road and Naas Road. A distance of 1 km is

considered a suitable distance for local walking trips, and a distance of 3km is

appropriate for local cycling trips. Once distances go beyond 3 km the propensity to

use mechanised modes of transport increase significantly. 1

Figure 1 : Catchment area showing 1km and 3km rings

6.3 Population Projections in Catchment Area

The main databases used in the calculation of population and employment are taken

from the Census data 2006, the Census Small Area Population Statistics (SAPS)

database with respect to population, and the Census2006 Place of Work Census

Anonymised Records (POWCAR) database for employment. Other sources used

include the DTO Household Travel Survey, which presents all day trip information

for the Greater Dublin Area*GDA) and An Post Geo-Directory which gives spatial

point data for each building in the GDA2 .

The forecast data used in this report has been taken from the DTO strategy test

Scenario A (RPG compliant) which sets out population , employment and education

projections for the GDA to the year 2030.

Figure 2 Catchment Area showing the District Electoral Divisions and the DTO‟s

Zones

1 Based on report from the Dublin Transportation Office, August 2009

2 Based on report from the Dublin Transportation Office, August 2009



28

For the purposes of this study Dublin City Council will concentrate on the 3km

catchment area. Having regard to the size of the proposed Prime Urban Centre, it is

considered that a 3km zone of influence is a reasonable catchment area. Table 1 – Census and Forecast Data for 3 Kilometre Catchment from Kylemore Centre

Code Pop 2002 Pop 2006 Pop 2018 Pop 02 – 06 Pop 06 -18

Total 3km 93,870 94,062 100,136 192 6,074

The DTO figures have been amended to take account of future residential landuse

developments planned as part of the Naas Road Strategic Plan, and the Naas Road

Development Framework 1 plan in South Dublin County Council Lands

The Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan prepared by Dublin City Council proposes the

continued creation of enterprise and employment uses together with a significant

growth in residential use within the study area. The land use strategy proposes the

provision of 52,188 sq.m of new residential floor space (gross floor area) giving a net

floor area of approximately 46969 sq.m. This figure when divided by 80 sq.m (the

average apartment size required by the Dublin City Development Plan standards)

provides an estimate of approximately 590 additional units in the catchment area.

This quantum of development would accommodate a population of approximately

1,475 , assuming an average household size of 2.5.2

1 The Naas Road Development Framework, Draft Plan by South Dublin County Council

2 Since 1981, household size has decreased steadily over every intercensal period. Between 1991 and

1996, the average household size in the Greater Dublin Areas decreased from 3.4 to 3.1. This trend is

expected to continue until the average household size eventually stabilises. The average household size



29

Phase 1 of the Draft Naas Road Development Framework Plan prepared by South

Dublin County Council proposes a quantum of approximately 5,300 residential units

within the catchment of this retail assessment. The Draft Development Framework

Plan sets out to transform the Naas Road area and has earmarked the crossing of

Long Mile Road as an appropriate starting point for this.

The predicted population for the Naas Road Development Framework prepared by

South Dublin County Council , of which our own catchment area overlaps is

approximately 13250.

Taken in conjunction with the overall population projection in the catchment the

estimated population projection for the period up to 2018 is 114, 861.

Table 2 – Population projections in the catchment area, taking into account

projections based on residential accommodation proposed in Dublin City Council

lands and also the Draft Framework for Naas Road lands ,by South Dublin County

Council

Study

Area

Pop

2002

Pop

2006

Pop

2018

Pop

02-06

Pop

06 -18

Projections

for SDCC &

Naas Road

Lands

Total

Anticipated

Pop

2018

3km 93,870 94,062 100,136 192 6,074 14,725 114, 861

Population in Base Year (2006) 94,062

Population Projections up to 2018 114, 861

6.4 Average expenditure per Head on convenience and comparison goods

In terms of expenditure per capita , Dublin City Council will base their estimates on

the figures used in the „Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016‟.

In this report the spending estimates for 2006 have been produced for each zone that

constitute the GDA. Each of the zones is defined in terms of electoral divisions. (The

forecasts for spending per head would be consistent with the population forecasts

provided by Colliers CRE and consistent with the RPG figures.) The zone level

populations in the Retail Strategy for 2007 to 2016 have been produced by assuming

a straight line rate of population change within each zone.

In terms of retail spend the report estimates that the total spend per head in the

Republic of Ireland in 2006 is 5,835 . At a sub regional level the spend per head is

4.2% higher in Dublin than the National average.

in the Greater Dublin Area is estimated to fall to about 2.5 by the year 2011. The fall in average

household size is due to trends towards smaller average family size, coupled with increasing rates of

household formation. These trends are evident in all developed countries and reflect social and cultural

conditions, including a greater tendency for single people to form households and taking account of

household fission and re-formation



30

Table 3 Average expenditure per head (Euros) on convenience and comparison goods.

Figures taken for Dublin South West1

Area

Available

Expenditure

2006 on all

Retail

Goods

(€ per head)

Average

Expenditures

per head on

Convenience

Goods

(€ per head)

Average

Expenditure

per head on

Comparison

Goods

(€ per head)

Average

Expenditure

per head on

non Bulky

Comparison

Goods

(€ per head)

Average

Expenditure

per head on

Bulky

Comparison

Goods

(€ per head)

Dublin

South West

6042 2553 3489 2409 1080

6.5 Spending Forecasts

In terms of spending Forecasts Colliers CRE estimate that the total spending per head

in the Republic will grow on average by 2.9% per annum up to 2016. Dublin is

expected to grow faster than both Mid East and Republic of Ireland for all

components of spend. The estimates are outlined in table 4

Table 4 – Average annual growth rates in Spending per Head , 2007 -2016(% constant

prices)2

Dublin Mid East Republic of Ireland

Convenience Goods 1,1% 0.9% 0.8%

Comparison Goods 4.8% 4.5% 4.4%

Non Bulky

Comparison

4.7% 4.3% 4.3%

Bulky Comparison 4.9% 4.9% 4.5%

In order to forecast anticipated spending forecasts, the growth rates are applied to the

average expenditure per head on convenience and comparison goods. See Table 5.

Table 5 – Existing and projected spending forecasts for base year and beyond

Year Convenience (€ per head)

Growth rate of 1.1% Comparison(€ per head)

Growth rate of 4.8% 2006 2553 3489

2008 2609 3832

2012 2726 4622

2016 2848 5575

2018 2911 6123

1„ Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016‟

Spending Forecasts for the GDA, Republic of Ireland, Experian

2 „ Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016‟

Spending Forecasts for the GDA, Republic of Ireland, Experian



31

6.6 Total available expenditure in the base year and beyond to 2018

The total available expenditure is set out in the Table 6. This is calculated by

multiplying the population from Table 2 by the expenditure per capita for each

category for each year as per Table 5. This gives the total available expenditure for

convenience and comparison goods anticipated for 2018.

Table 6 – Total available expenditure for base year and beyond to 2018

Year Convenience Comparison Total

2006 240,140,286 328,182,318 568,322,604

2018 334,360,371 703,293,903 1,037,654,274

6.7 Existing Retail Floor space in the catchment Area.(District Centres)

The catchment area defined for this study already has a certain level of retail

provision. The existing retail floor space in the catchment area is estimated having

regard to the Draft Retail Strategy for the GDA 2008. 1Figures are total net existing

floor-space as of 2007

Table 7 – Existing Retail Provision in Catchment Area.(Excluding completions

services floor space) All figures Sqm Net

Convenience

Goods

Non Bulky

Comparison

Bulky Comparison

Ashleaf Crumlin

Cross

2358 2894 0

Ballyfermot 3557 621 8414

Crumlin 5538 2552 0

Chapelizod 86 0 0

Drimnagh 436 247 0

Inchicore 800 497 0

Kimmage 2481 1753 0

Royal Liver 611 149 0

Walkinstown 4219 666 0

Walkinstown South 1058 147 3594

Total 21,154 9526 12,008

Total Convenience Retail Floorspace ( excluding completions service floorspace)

21,154 sqm net.

1 Source Appendix 6B Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, 2008 – 2016. This data is

from surveys carried out in 2007 and it is bases on DTZ Pieda Consulting Floor space surveys that were conducted in 2001 This is then updated by the various local authorities.



32

Comparison(bulky & non-bulky) Retail Floorspace (excluding completions service

Floorspace) 21,534 sqm net.

These figures are based on existing retail provision within the catchment area.

Adjustments have been made to take account of recent retail planning applications in

the area. Proposals for which decisions have not been made will be excluded.(See

Appendix)

6.8 Existing and permitted Retail Floor spaces in Catchment Area

Table 8 provides an estimate of the existing retail floor area and retail floor area

which has been approved within the catchment area.

Table 8 – Existing and permitted Retail developments in Catchment area (Sqm Net)

Convenience Comparison Goods

Existing 21,154 21,534

Permitted 737 492

Total 21,819 22,026

6.9 Turnover of Existing Floor space

The turnover of the existing floor space is estimated by dividing the Total Available

Expenditure (Table 6) by the floor space in each category.(Table 8)

In 2007 the assumed forecast Sales Density Figures were 12000 for convenience

goods and 7000 for comparison goods. The assumed growth rates in turnover as per

the GDA draft Retail Strategy are 0.50% for Convenience goods and 1.75 for

Comparison Goods

Table 9 – Assumed Sales Density figures (€ per sqm net)., with assumed growth rates of

0.5% for Convenience Goods and 1.75% for Comparison Goods1

Year Convenience Goods Comparison Goods

2006 11,940 6878

2007 12,000 7000

2018 12,677 8472

The turnover of existing floor space is estimated by multiplying the sales density

figures above(Table 9) by the existing floor space in each category.(Table 8) (i.e. for

2006 the figure for convenience would be 11940 X 21154 =252578760) For future

turnover rates the turnover per square metre would be achieved by multiplying the

existing and permitted floor spaces in the area.

1 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, 2008-2016, Appendix 1 – Methodology Data Sources

and Assumptions



33

Table 10 Turnover of Existing Floor space within Catchment Area (€ )

Year Convenience Comparison

2006 252.578,760 148,110,852

2014 271,122,894 174,093,504

2018 276,599,463 186,604,272

6. 10 Remaining Retail Floor space capacity in catchment area

In order to determine the capacity of the area to sustain additional retail development

it is necessary to determine additional retail capacity in the area. The figures for the

turnover of existing floor space in the catchment area (Table 10) should be subtracted

from the total available expenditure.(Table 6)

Table 11 – Remaining Capacity of Retail Floor space in Catchment Area (€ )


2018 57,760,908 516,689,631

6.11 Remaining Capacity in Catchment Area having regard to outflows of

expenditure

As part of this quantitative assessment it is assumed there will be a certain level of

leakages of expenditure to other centres such as the City centre, Liffey Valley,

Tallaght, Blanchardstown, and other centres outside of the catchment area.

In order to allow for this our figures will be readjusted. The Planning Authority will

have regard to the Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, Appendix 3E of the

Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area which gives a detailed breakdown of

Market share spending for each centre/zone ie, where most people in each zone tend

to shop.1

In terms of this assessment the results from Zone 5 covered the DED‟s in our

catchment area. It is noted from the data that a large portion of people in Zone 5 carry

out both Bulky and non bulky comparison shopping outside of the catchment area.

For example in terms of non bulky comparison shopping approximately 38.58% of

residents carry out their shopping n the city centre, with 32% approx going to Liffey

Valley, 5.18% to Tallaght and 10.94% to Blanchardstown. In all over 91% of

residents in Zone 5 carry out their non bulky comparison shopping outside the

catchment area. This is equally high for bulky comparison shopping with 29.96%

shopping in Dublin City Centre, 19.27% in Liffey Valley, 9.42 % in Tallaght and

5.55% in Dundrum. In total approximately 76% carry out their bulky shopping needs

outside of the Zone 5 catchment.

1 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, 2008 – 2016, Appendix 3E



34

Taking an average of the total leakage between bulky and non bulky comparison this

will bring the average down to 84% of people in Zone 5 do their comparison shopping

outside of the catchment area.

As the study area is a proposed PUC it is hoped that this new centre will be able to

claw back a lot of this leakage for comparison shopping. In light of the Draft plan for

South Dublin and the Naas Road Lands and also the increased population in Dublin

City Council area , and due to its strategic location and excellent transport links, it is

considered that this area could attract approximately 50% if not more of the

comparison shopping that leaves the area. On average approximately 84% of bulky

and non bulky comparison shopping leaks outside of Zone 5. However, for the

purposes of this study we are assuming that 50% of this will be attracted back into

the area, as a result the anticipated leakage for comparison shopping would be 42%

For the purposes of this study we are assuming that there will be no leakages in

expenditure for convenience shopping.

Table 12 - Remaining Capacity of Retail Floor space in Catchment Area , taking

account of leakages in Comparison goods from the area


2018 57,760,908 299,679,986

Assumed level of leakage is 42%.

6.12 Additional Floor Space Requirements in Catchment Area

Turnover of Future Floor space

The ultimate goal is to determine the additional retail floor space requirements in the

catchment area. In order to get this it is necessary to estimate the future turnover per

sqm of retail floor space. (Table 13) .

Table 13 Turnover of Future Floorspace1


2007 12,000 * 7000 **

2014 12,426 * 7904 **

2018 12,677 * 8472 **

Assumed Growth Rate for Convenience 0.5%

Assumed Growth Rate for Comparison 1.75

Table 14 – Future Floor Space Requirements (sq.m. net)

Year Convenience Comparison Total

2018 4,556 35,373 39,929

1 Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area, 2008-2016



35

Assumption : 42% outflow of expenditure on comparison goods.

An estimate for the future floor area requirements for the catchment area to the year

2018 are achieved by dividing the turnovers of future floor space into the remaining

capacity which has been identified in Table 12. The resulting anticipated future floor

space requirements are shown in Table 14.

6.13 Quantitative Assessment - Conclusion

In total there is an overall retail floor space requirement identified for approximately

39,929sqm of net retail floorspace in the area. As noted above these figures should be

used for guidance only as they are based on approximate levels.

A cautionary note should be attached, as these figures are based on a number of

assumptions and sources, including data from the Retail Strategy for the Greater

Dublin Area, 2008-2016. The figures used were based on surveys and estimates based

in 2006 figures. The Standards set out in the Retail Strategy provides a guide of

35,000m2

of net lettable floorspace for a Level 3 District Centre. Taking this into

consideration and the economic landscape; which currently presents a constrained

financial situation , substantial levels of unemployment, low economic growth as

well as other consequent and related changes it is considered reasonable to adopt a

cap of 35,000m2

retail floor space in any future development in the area. This figure

shall include provision for non retail uses which should not exceed 20% of the total

retail floorspace. This is a long term projection, extending to 2018, providing for a

time frame which it is hoped will see an upturn in the economic climate.

The figures above should not be taken as prescriptive thresholds, but rather as

indicative floorspaces requirements for convenience and comparison goods. Due to

the changing pattern of development of the area in the next 10 years with increased

population levels, it is likely that there will be a growing demand for high quality

convenience shopping in the area. The qualitative assessment indicated that many of

the existing centres are not operating as full capacity, with many centres outdated, and

poor shopping environments. Many of the centres do not offer a high quality

shopping environment, and have a limited range of goods. There is therefore the

opportunity in the Naas Road Lands to provide high quality convenience and

comparison shopping.



36

7.0 Conclusions

The Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan has already demonstrated that the lands located

in and around the Naas Road, Kylemore Road and Walkinstown Avenue have the

potential to be developed as a mixed-core or Prime Urban Centre. Step by step, the

Plan outlines how a „viable retail and commercial core‟ together with increased

commercial and residential opportunities could be provided at this location within a

high quality physical environment, and ably supported by sustainable means of

transport. The quantitative and qualitative analysis carried out for this Retail Impact

Assessment reinforces and supports this proposal to designate the mixed-use core as a

Prime Urban Centre, accommodating an appropriate quantum of retail and retail

services.

The quantitative analysis estimates that there is capacity for an additional 39,929

square metres of net retail floor space to the year 2018 in this quadrant of the Dublin‟s

outer city and extending into the administrative area of South Dublin County Council.

This quantum of retail floor space (including provision for approximately 20% retail

service) has been determined based on the existing extent, quality and distribution of

retail floor space in the catchment area, projected population increases and the

capacity for additional floor space. Although, the quantitative study indicates that

there is a need for more comparison than convenience floor space, a ratio of 40:60

convenience/comparison has been selected. This has been deemed necessary to

address existing deficiencies in the provision, location and quality of convenience

shopping highlighted by the qualitative analysis.

The proposed quantum of retail floor space is relatively high, however, this has taken

into consideration existing deficiencies in retail provision (convenience and

comparison) and the limited capacity of the existing prime urban centres and district

centres to expand. Furthermore, regard has been had to the large outflows of

expenditure for comparison shopping from the catchment area to other centres such as

the City Centre, Tallaght Town Centre, Liffey Valley, and Blanchardstown Town

Centre. It is envisaged that the proposed Prime Urban Centre will be in a position to

claw back some of this outflow of expenditure currently leaving Dublin City.

To conclude, having regard to the site‟s existing and future accessibility, to site

capacity and to existing and projected needs of the area, it is considered that this is a

good location to accommodate additional retail development:

It is the most accessible location in this part of the city, well served by the

Luas Red Line linking Tallaght Town Centre to the city centre and to mainline

rail services, and by a Quality Bus Corridor.

It is considered that an appropriately designed core with a mix of uses

including commercial, residential and retail along the main artery into Dublin

City, combined with significant public realm improvements, would

substantially improve the image of the Naas Road, which is one of the main

entrances to Dublin City.

Finally, it is felt that the proposed location for mixed-use development at the

junction of Kylemore Road and Naas Road would allow future development at



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this location to form a strong relationship with the adjoining commercial areas

to the east, creating an area that functions appropriately as a whole, as well as

ensure the creation of a „living community‟ of residents, workers and visitors

at the heart of the Naas Road Lands Plan area.



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39

APPENDICES



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Appendix 1

Retail Strategy for the Great Dublin Area 2008 -2016

Table EI: Retail Hierarchy for the GDA

Level 1 Metropolitan Centre

Dublin City Centre

Level 2 Major Town Centres & County Town Centres

Fingal: Swords, Blanchardstown

South Dublin: Tallaght, Liffey Valley

Dun Laoghaire: Dun Laoghaire, Dundrum

Wicklow: Bray, Wicklow

Meath: Navan

Kildare: Naas/Newbridge, Leixlip(icluding Collinstown*)

Level 3 Town and or District Centres &

Sub-County Town Centres

Dublin City: Finglas, Northside Shopping Centre, Ballyfermot

Rathmines, Crumlin Shopping Centre, Donaghmede Shopping Centre,

Omni, Ballymun, Point Village and Poolbeg

Fingal: Malahide, Balbriggan, Skerries, Charlestown

South Dublin:Adamstown, Crumlin(Ashleaf) Clonburris/Balgaddy,

Clondalkin, Fortunestown, Kilnmanagh, Lucan, Rathfarnham

Dun Laoghaire Rathdown: Stillorgan, Blackrock, Cornelscourt,

Nutgrove, Cherrywood

Wicklow: Greystones , Arklow, Blessington, Baltinglass

Meath:Dunboyne**, Ashbourne, Dunshaughlin, Kells, Trim,

Laytown/Bettystown, Enfield

Kildare: Celbridge, Kilcock, and Maynooth, Kilcullen, Athy, Kildare,

Monasterevin, Clane

Level 4 Neighbourhood Centres, Local Centres – Small Tons and Villlages

Level 5 Corner Shops/Small Villages

Leixlip and the Collinstown area will gradually develop along a 20 year time

period reaching a level 2 status

** Dunboyne will gradually develop over the next 20 years towards level 2

status



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Appendix 2

Population Projections. .Source: Dublin Transportation Office



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Appendix 3

Source: Dublin Transportation Office – Numbers of jobs in the catchment area, and in the adjoining DEDs respectively.



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Table 5 – Number of Jobs per DED adjoining Kylemore Catchment



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Appendix 4

Glossary of Terms

Net Retail Area – The area of a shop or store which is developed to the sales of retail

goods (including the area devoted to checkouts)

Gross Retail Area – This is the net lettable area – i.e sales space, plus storage space,

offices, toilets, canteen and circulation space1

Sales Density figures

Types of Retail Goods

Convenience

Food

Alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverages

Tobacco

Non-durable household goods

Comparison

Clothing and footwear

Furniture, furnishings and household equipment

Excluding non-durabe household goods)

Medical and pharmaceutical products, therapeutic

appliances and equipment

Educational and recreation equipment and accessories

Books, newspapers and magazines

Goods for personal care and goods not elsewhere classifies

Bulky Goods

Goods generally sold from retail warehouses where DIY

goods or goods such as flat pack furniture are of such a size

that they would normally be taken away by car and not be

manageable by customers travelling by foot, cycle or bus,

ot that large floor areas would be required to display them

e.g. furniture n room sets, or no large individually, but part

of a collective purchase which would be bulky e.g.

wallpaper , paint.

1 Retail Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities, 2005



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Appendix 5

The table below sets out the planning permission either granted or pending for large comparison and convenience retail citywide. Extant Planning Permissions (Table 4)

Location Description Gross Retail Area (sq. metres)

Comment Status

Dublin Docklands The Point Village 25, 000 sq. metres North Lotts Planning Scheme Amendment

Approved

Santry Omni Shopping Centre

7, 501 sq. metres additional floorspace

Plan.No. 5303/05 Plan.No. 3866/02

Granted permission

North Fringe Clongriffen 30,400 sq. metres Retail including Clare Hall. Potentially a small percentage of this floor area could be used as office

Granted permission

Ballymun Town centre 28, 084 sq. metres retail floor space net

Plan.No. 2913/03 Granted permission appeal ref. PL29N.205145 withdrawn

Pelletstown Lands adjacent to Pelletstown House known as 'Pelletstown', bounded generally by River Road to the north, the Royal Canal to the south, Ashtown Road to the west and the Ratoath Road to the east at Ashtown, Finglas, Dublin 11

225 sq. metres Plan. No. 4289/00 Granted permission


Comment Status

Poolbeg Planning permission for a mixed development on c. 4.9-hectare site at South Bank Road, Ringsend, Dublin 4. The site is bounded by Sean Moore Park on the south west, the former Irish Glass Bottle Company lands to the north west and Sandymount Strand to the south east.

2934 sq. metres Application 4996/04 granted by Dublin City Council - Refused permission on appeal to An Bord Pleanala PL29S.217742 20/09/07

Pelletstown Lands adjacent to Pelletstown House known as 'Pelletstown', bounded generally by River Road to the north, the Royal Canal to the south, Ashtown Road to the west and the Ratoath Road to the east at Ashtown,

3434 sq. metres retail

(of which 1117 sq. metres is proposed to be a supermarket)

Plan.No. 1366/06 Planning permission granted



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Finglas, Dublin 11

Dolphins Barn Bounded by 276-288, South Circular Road, St Catherine’s Avenue, Donore Avenue and St Teresa's Gardens. Dublin 8

7756 sq. metres 3130/06 – Granted permission by An Bord Plenala PL.29S.221190l

Donaghmede Donaghmede Shopping Centre, Grange Road, Donaghmede, Dublin 13

6256 sq. metres additional floor space

Application 1077/06 granted permission by Dublin City Council – Granted permission by An Bord Pleanala ref: PL29N.218416 November 2006

Ballymun Ballymun Town Centre, site is bounded by Ballymun Road to the east, Silloge Road to the west, Balbutcher Lane South to the north and Sillogue Avenue to the south, Dublin 11.(site currently occupied by Ballymun Shopping Centre, Swimming Pool etc)

37, 265 sq. metres net retail proposed

This is an increase of approx. 9181 sq. metres over original retail floor space granted permission.

Application 4570/06 – Refuse permission on appeal PL.29N 221985

Parkwest Sector 3, Parkwest Business Park, Nangor Road, Gallanstown, Dublin 10

This development includes 13, 000 sq. metres of retail / mixed use

Application 6300/05 Granted permission on appeal PL.29S.220410 September 2007

Extant Planning Permissions (Table 4)


Comment Status

Dublin Docklands The Point Village 25, 000 sq. metres North Lotts Planning Scheme Amendment

Approved

Santry Omni Shopping Centre

7, 501 sq. metres additional floorspace

Plan.No. 5303/05 Plan.No. 3866/02

Granted permission

North Fringe Clongriffen 30,400 sq. metres Retail including Clare Hall. Potentially a small percentage of this floor area could be used as office

Granted permission

Ballymun Town centre 28, 084 sq. metres retail floor space net

Plan.No. 2913/03 Granted permission appeal ref. PL29N.205145 withdrawn

Pelletstown Lands adjacent to Pelletstown House known as 'Pelletstown', bounded generally by River Road to the north, the Royal Canal to the south, Ashtown Road to the west and the Ratoath Road to the east at Ashtown, Finglas, Dublin 11

225 sq. metres Plan. No. 4289/00 Granted permission



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Planning Permissions Pending in Catchment Area


Comment Status

Royal Liver Mixed Use scheme is 6 Blocks. Includes 35 new retail /commercial units, totaling 15,822

15,822sq. metres Application 1337/08 Granted by Dublin City Council Currently on appeal to An Bord Pleanala PL.29S.232080

Crumlin Shopping Centre

Demolition and redevelopment of shopping centre. Mixed USe Two anchor retail untis & 4 retail units

12,117 sq metres

(of which 1117 sq. metres is proposed to be a supermarket)

Plan.No. 1366/06 Planning permission granted

Crumlin Leisure Centre

Mixed use development on site of Leisure Centre. Two storey 2 Retail units at part of application Two anchor units

424 sq. metres 3093/09 Additional Information received on 14/08/09. Decision still pendingl



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Appendix 6

Recent Planning Applications in Study Area

Crumlin Shopping Centre

There is a current application to redevelop the leisure Centre complex in Crumlin

PUC Reg. 3093/09, this applications has 2 retail units with a floor area of 424sqm.

The main application on this site is Reg.3078/09 which will provide 2 large anchor

stores measuring 9,288, and 2316sqm net. Four other retail units are proposed

measuring a stated 513sqm. Additional information has been received by Dublin City

Council but decision is still pending. This figures will not be taken into consideration

as the decision on the file is still pending.

Royal Liver Site

The other main application in the area is the redevelopment of the Royal Liver Site, .

Reg.1337/08. As this is currently on appeal to An Bord Pleanala PL.29S.232080., this

will not be taken into consideration

Smaller Applications in Area

Reg.5665/07 – Permission granted for construction of a mixed-use development

including

a) 8 no. apartments (2no. 1 beds; 4no. 2 beds; 2no. 3 beds) in a 3-storey block over

ground floor retail unit with fourth floor recessed to the rear of the site.

b) 1 no. 2 bed apartment at first floor over car park entrance facing Drimnagh Road to

the front of the site.

c) Office block (area ca.2182sqm) to the front of the site stepping from 4 storeys to 5

storeys in total with the top floor recessed.

d) Ground floor level of the development is retail containing 3 no. retail units in fornt

block and 2no. cafe/bistro in rear block (total retail floor area c.1263sqm).

e) 28no. underground parking spaces accessed from Drimnagh Road with 4 no. pull-in

bays and a loading bay on Drimnagh Road.

f) The two blocks have balconies to front and rear and landscaped garden between at

first floor level. The development will also include new boundary treatments and

associated works on a ca.0.22ha site.

Reg. 4394/07 – Planning permission granted on appeal PL.29S.227535 for

demolition of existing industrial buildings including ancillary offices and ancillary

outbuildings and the construction of mixed residential/commercial development of

710.5sqm of ground floor commercial, 126 no. apartment, 4 no. live/work units all in

two blocks of 3-7 storeys all over basement car park. Block A contains 3 no. self

contained commercial/retail units at lower and upper ground level, 4 no. love/work

duplex units at lower and upper ground level fronting Camac Close, 26 no. 3 bed

apartments, 28 no. 2 bed apartments, 16 no. 1 bed apartments, all with balconies and



49

roof gardens at fifth and sixth floor levels with central landscaped courtyard at lower

ground level. Block B contains 1 no. self contained commercial/retail unit at lower

ground level, 14 no. 3 bed apartments, 36 no. 2 bed apartments, 6 no. 1 bed

apartments all with balconies and roof gardens at fifth and sixth floor levels with

central landscaped courtyard at lower ground level over basement car park for 140

cars accessed from Camac Close, provision of a new pedestrian access from Camac

Close and provision of a new pedestrian floor bridge over the Camac River and all

associated site works.



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Appendix 7

Sources of Information

1) Dublin Transportation Office. Report submitted, August 2009.

„DTO Report on Naas Road Study Area as part of the Retail Strategy‟

2) Roads and Traffic Report- Dublin City Council , August 2009.

„Ccomparative transportation analysis of the existing district centres‟

3) Central Statistics Office, Small Area Statistics, 2002, 2006

4) Various Retail Impact Assessments

a) Crumlin Shopping Centre, May 2009 Stephen Ward Planning Consultants

b) Retail Assessment – Royal Liver Site, Naas Road, September 2008

c) Retail Study for the Naas Road Strategic Framework Plan, John Spain

Associates, September 2008

d) Ballsbridge Retail Strategy, September 2006

e) Draft Rathmines Retail Strategy, John Spain Associates,

5) National Spatial Strategy 2002-2020

6) Regional Planning Guidelines 2004-2016

7) Retail Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities , 2005

8) Retail Strategy for the Greater Dublin Area 2008-2016

9) Dublin City Development Plan 2005-2011

10) Naas Road Lands Strategic Plan 2009

11) Drimnagh Integrated Area Plan

12) The Naas Road Development Framework,2009 , Draft, South Dublin County

Council

13) ESRI Medium Term Review 2008 – 2015

retail assessment for the naas road land strategic plan ... · alison scott/sean flahive september...

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