retention of casnr undergraduate students brianna hitt, university of nebraska-lincoln
TRANSCRIPT
Retention of CASNR Undergraduate Students
Brianna Hitt, University of Nebraska-Lincoln
Motivation Previous work
Enrollment predictions Model retention with financial data, all colleges
New Student Enrollment surveys Programming
How can CASNR better support students?
Data New Student Enrollment (NSE) survey Academic Management Information System
(AMIS) base_enrollment database Student demographics Academic information for each semester enrolled
Over 150 variables Linked by Student NUID through Microsoft®
Access®
NSE variables Pre-professional programs Working on/off campus Weekly work hours Best subject Worst subject Concerns about college Number of activities Campus activities
Student Demographics Age Gender Ethnicity AP / CLEP credits ACT scores High school GPA High school class size High school class rank
Semester Academic Information Retention First-time freshman JD Edwards Honors program FERPA Resident status Veteran status Full-time
Total term credits High school
graduation Cumulative GPA Cumulative earned
hours Cumulative transfer
hours Transfer student Previous college
credits
Methods Means and proportions Kendall’s tau-b correlation Logistic regression
Stepwise selection Modeling semester retention Linear effects for all indicators
Scoring Used new students to check the model Predicted probabilities Confidence intervals Overall fit statistics
Fall 2013 Students
Retention from 2013 NSE to Fall 2013
Effect P-value Estimate Odds RatioIntercept .0001 3.8030Pre-health .0466 -1.5734 .207Planning to work off campus .0544 -1.2245 .294Best subject science .0275 1.4824 4.404Best subject writing .2038 1.0971 2.995Worst subject math .0204 -1.8362 .159Worst subject science .2633 1.2930 3.644Worst subject writing .1847 -1.0725 .342Worried about time management .1292 1.6874 5.405Worried about too large an environment .1901 1.0836 2.955Worried about making friends .0053 -1.8980 .150Planning to participate in Greek life .2962 0.8420 2.321Planning to participate in honors program .2451 -1.0816 .339
Retention from 2013 NSE to Fall 2013
Variables not included Pre-professional programs other than Pre-Health Planned weekly work hours
Retention from 2013 NSE to Spring 2014
Effect P-value Estimate Odds RatioIntercept .0001 2.2454Planning to work off campus .0057 -0.9832 .374
Variables included, then removed Full-time status
Variables not included Pre-professional
programs Planned weekly work
hours Best/worst subjects
Concerns about college
Activities Demographics Fall 2013 academic
information
Retention from 2013 NSE to Fall 2014
Effect P-value Estimate Odds RatioIntercept .0037 -6.0425Planning to work more than 15 hours .0057 -1.2398 0.289White ethnicity .0048 2.0606 7.850High school grad in the last 12 months (fall 2013) .0091 -2.0421 0.130
Previous college (fall 2013) .0015 1.3983 4.048Total term credit hours (spring 2014) .0051 0.3623 1.437Cumulative GPA (spring 2014) .0002 0.8522 2.345
Retention from 2013 NSE to Fall 2014 Variables included, then removed
Hawaiian/Pacific Islander ethnicity indicator
Variables not included Pre-professional
programs Planned location of
work Best/worst subjects Concerns about college Demographics Fall 2013 retention
Resident status Veteran status
Full-time status Cumulative GPA,
earned, and transfer hours from Fall 2013
All variables from Spring 2014 other than cumulative GPA
Fit Statistics for SCORE Data
Total Frequency
417 SC 210.3975
Log Likelihood
-65.9837 R-Square -0.07533
Error Rate 0.0312 Max-Rescaled R-Square
-0.34813
AIC 157.9673 AUC 0.517353
AICC 158.8706 Brier Score 0.032482
BIC 210.3975 Model built using Fall 2013 first-time freshman Used Fall 2014 first-time freshman to check the
model 3.12% error rate in predicting which students
retained
Retention from 2013 NSE to Fall 2013
Shared Characteristics for Student Not Retained
NR = Not Retained
Shared Characteristics for Majors
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Agribusiness 0% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.1% 3.0% 10.3%Agricultural Journ. 6.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%Animal Science 13.3% 8.6% 8.5% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 13.9%Biochemistry 13.3% 6.9% 6.8% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3% 4.4%
Less likely to major in Agribusiness or Animal Science
More likely to major in Agricultural Journalism or Biochemistry (first fall only)
Shared Characteristics for Majors
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Env. Studies 6.7% 6.9% 6.8% 5.5% 4.6% 4.6% 3.1%Forensic Sci. 13.3% 17.2% 17.0
%14.6% 16.0% 15.9
%
9.3%
Fish & Wildlife 6.7% 12.1% 11.9%
10.9% 9.2% 9.1% 5.7%
Pre-Vet Med. 13.3% 17.2% 17.0%
15.5% 16.0% 15.9%
13.7%
Vet Science 6.7% 8.6% 8.5% 8.2% 8.4% 8.3% 5.7% More likely to major in Environmental Studies,
Forensic Science, Fisheries and Wildlife, Pre-Veterinary Medicine, or Veterinary Science
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Pre-health 20.0% 10.3% 10.1
%11.8% 11.5% 11.4
%
7.0%
Off-campus work 40.0% 34.5% 35.6%
30.0% 20.0% 28.8%
19.3%
On-campus work 20.0% 29.3% 28.8%
35.5% 35.1% 35.6% 35.8%
Future work 33.3% 27.6% 27.1%
25.5% 28.2% 28.0%
33.8% More likely to plan on Pre-Health More likely to plan to work off-campus Less likely to plan to work on-campus (first
year only) Less likely to plan to work in the future
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 38815+ hours 20.0% 24.1% 23.7
%28.2% 27.5% 27.3
%
17.8%
Not working 6.7% 10.3% 10.2% 10.0% 8.4% 8.3% 11.1%Future work hours
26.7% 24.1% 23.7%
21.8% 24.4% 24.2%
31.2%
More likely to plan to work more than 15 hours Less likely to plan not to work (first fall only) Less likely to plan to work future hours
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Good math 46.7% 36.2% 37.3
%38.2% 40.5% 40.2
%
49.2%
Good science 53.3% 65.5% 64.6% 68.2% 67.9% 68.2% 68.0%Good writing 20.0% 29.3% 28.8% 28.2% 29.8% 29.5% 29.1%
Less likely to consider math their best subject Less likely to consider science or writing their
best subject (first fall only)
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Bad math 53.3% 53.4% 52.5
%53.6% 50.4% 50.8
%
44.3%
Bad science 6.7% 10.3% 10.2% 11.8% 11.5% 11.4% 14.9%Bad writing 53.3% 41.4% 42.4% 39.1% 39.7% 40.2% 43.8%
More likely to consider math their worst subject Less likely to consider science their worst subject More likely to consider writing their worst subject
(first fall only)
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Worried about doing well
33.3% 55.2% 54.2%
50.9% 50.4% 50.8%
44.8%
…paying for college
46.7% 43.1% 44.1%
47.3% 45.8% 45.5%
36.9%
Less likely to be worried about doing well (first fall only)
More likely to be worried about doing well (after first fall)
More likely to be worried about paying for college
Shared Characteristics for NSEQuestion NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388…managing time
6.7% 25.9% 25.4% 26.4% 24.4% 25.00% 24.5%
…finding help 33.3% 20.7% 20.3% 19.1% 21.4% 21.2% 25.8%…larger environment
13.3% 13.8%% 15.3%
15.5% 16.0% 15.9%
22.4%
…making friends
33.3% 12.1% 11.9% 9.1% 10.7% 10.6% 11.3%
Less likely to be worried about managing time (first fall only)
More likely to be worried about finding help, making friends (first fall only)
Less likely to be worried about college being too big
Shared Characteristics for NSE
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Greek life 13.3% 29.3% 28.8% 26.4% 28.4% 28.0% 28.1%No activities 33.3% 36.2% 35.6
%32.7% 29.8% 30.0
%
24.5%
Athletics 6.7% 10.3% 10.2%
9.1% 8.4% 8.3% 4.6%
Less likely to plan to participate in Greek life (first fall only)
More likely to plan not to participate in activities
More likely to plan to participate in athletics
Shared Characteristics for Demographics
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388Black 6.8% 6.7% 6.2% 5.9% 5.9% 2.1%Hispanic 11.4% 13.3
%11.3% 9.3% 9.2% 7.0%
White 90.9% 88.9%
86.6% 88.1% 88.2%
94.1%
Multi-racial 13.6% 13.3%
11.3% 9.3% 9.2% 8.0%
More likely to be Black or Hispanic Less likely to be white/Caucasian More likely to be multi-racial (first year only)
Shared Characteristics for Demographics
Question NR Fall 1 NR Spring 1 NR FS 1 NR Fall 2 NR Spring 2 NR FS 2 OverallNumber 15 58 59 110 131 132 388High school class size
234.41 240.80
265.46
251.58 250.57
190.38
High school rank
83.64 87.16 87.39 85.06 85.13 56.54
Larger high school classes (by about 50 students)
Lower high school class rank (by about 30 students)
Shared Characteristics for Academics
Students NR after the first fall semester: Were less likely to be in the Honors program Were more likely to have graduated in the past
12 months Had fewer cumulative earned hours on average Had fewer cumulative transfer hours in the
second year Were less likely to have had previous college
experience
Future Work Enrollment predictions More and different data Checking accuracy of other models Trends in class size and majors Investigate students without NSE data
Did not attend Attended with different plans
Compare Fall 2013 and Fall 2014 students Combine to look at trends
Acknowledgements Dr. Erin Blankenship – MS Advisor
Dr. Stephen Kachman – MS Committee Member
Dr. Tiffany Heng-Moss - Associate Dean of CASNR, MS Committee Member
Dr. Steven Waller - Dean of CASNR
Vanessa Roof - Inst. Retention and Assessment Research Analyst, Academic Affairs
Judy Carter - Programmer Analyst, IANR Finance & Personnel
Traci Kaslon - Inst. Research Analyst, Office of Inst. Research and Planning
Dr. Pamela Fellers Section on Statistical Education
Contact Information Brianna Hitt University of Nebraska-Lincoln [email protected]