rethinking data - university of illinois · based on an example from think like a freak: the...
TRANSCRIPT
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Rethinking data
© 2007-2017, Avail Advisors
Please do not reproduce any part of this presentation
without permission V7
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Source: www.justicemap.org
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-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
I am recognized for my contributions
My supervisor listens to my ideas
I get to do interesting work
My supervisor provides regular feedback
I am involved in decisions that imapct my work
There is open communication in my department
My compensation is fair
The orgnaization has a clear strategy
My orgnaization behaves in an ethical manner
I am satisfied with my benefits
Impact on satisfaction Impact on dissatisfaction
Drivers and detractors of employee satisfaction
I am satisfied with my benefits
My organization behaves in an ethical manner
The organization has a clear strategy
My compensation if fair
There is open communication in my department
I am involved in decisions that impact my work
My supervisor provides regular feedback
I get to do interesting work
My supervisor listens to my ideas
I am recognized for my contributions
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Q4 Snapshot
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000
Northeast
Southeast
Western
Northwest
Midwest
Newcustomers
Q4Customeraquisition
$0 $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000
Northeast
Southeast
Western
Northwest
Midwest
$000s
Q4Revenue
First Last State Region Q4Sales
Katherine Dunn California Western 431,210$
Benjamin Ward California Western 427,430$
Raymond Adams California Western 423,710$
Stephen Scott California Western 421,010$
Debra Warren California Western 420,040$
Robert Williams California Western 419,960$
Catherine Holmes California Western 416,230$
Theresa Wagner California Western 408,720$
Michelle Ortiz California Western 405,510$
Judith Spencer California Western 405,070$
Top10SalesPeople
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Focusing on numbers doesn’t work
Focusing
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1986 Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster 1986 Chernobyl Meltdown 2005 Katrina Devastation of New Orleans 2007 Global Financial Meltdown 2010 Hunza River Valley Landslide 2011 Fukushima Meltdown
The value of data
is not
the data
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1986 Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster 1986 Chernobyl Meltdown 2005 Katrina Devastation of New Orleans 2007 Global Financial Meltdown 2010 Hunza River Valley Landslide 2011 Fukushima Meltdown
Nope, not insights…
…but you’re getting closer
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1986 Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster 1986 Chernobyl Meltdown 2005 Katrina Devastation of New Orleans 2007 Global Financial Meltdown 2010 Hunza River Valley Landslide 2011 Fukushima Meltdown
Sources: Pasternack, Alex. Was Space Shuttle Challenger a Casualty of Bad Data Visualization? Motherboard. Jan 27 2012, Web. LaFrance, Adrienne. Disasters That Were Foretold, The Atlantic, Sep 4 2015, Web. Dörner, Dietrich. The Logic of Failure: Recognizing and Avoiding Error in Complex Situations. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley Pub., 1997. Print. Lewis, Michael. The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. New York: W.W. Norton, 2010. Print.
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1986 Space Shuttle Challenger Disaster 1986 Chernobyl Meltdown 2005 Katrina Devastation of New Orleans 2007 Global Financial Meltdown 2010 Hunza River Valley Landslide 2011 Fukushima Meltdown
The value of data
is
decisions and actions
The value of data is not
the data
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People want answers, not numbers
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Your brain isn’t very good with numbers
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Rethinking how we think
Rethinking Data
Aligning data and decisions
Turning information into
action
Reporting answers instead
of numbers
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Rethinking the way we think
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Who would you let in?
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First 100 Availability Bias
“Good looking” Confirmation Bias
Bribe Vested interested
Friends Familiarity Bias
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Can you
spot the
the mistake? 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
52 = 25
13 x 4 = 52
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Green Purple Red Blue Red Green Blue Purple Red Green The Stroop Effect
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The more you see, the more you miss
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2 4 6
Source: The Art of Thinking Clearly by Rolf Dobelli
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Request Award
$100 $990
$20,000 $36,000
$5 mil $440,000
$1 bil $490,000
Source: The More You Ask for, the More You Get... Anchoring in Personal Injury Verdicts, Gretchen B. Chapman and Brian H. Bornstein, (1996)
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How fast were the cars going when they . . .
Smashed
Collided
Bumped
Hit
Contacted
40.8
39.3
38.1
34.0
31.8
Source: The Psychology of Decision Making, The OpenLearn team, http://www.open.edu/openlearn/body-mind/psychology/the-psychology-decision-making, October 2005, accessed March, 2016
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Millionaire Jackpot
Lottery
4 9 15 22 29 36
Tonight’s Jackpot
$1.3 Billion
Millionaire Jackpot
Lottery
6 13 21 24 32 40
Tonight’s Jackpot
$1.3 Billion
1 2 3 4 5 6
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Jill bought a bat and a ball for $1.10. The bat cost $1.00 more than the ball.
How much did she pay for the ball?
Source: Thinking Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman
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Ok.co
$0.10 $1.10 $1.20
$0.05 $1.05 $1.10
Ball Bat Total
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Cotton Shirt
Usual store $15
Alternate store $5
Business
Suit
Usual store $800
Alternate store $790
Cotton Shirt Business
Suit
Usual store $15 $800
Alternate store $5 $790
$10 $10
Dan Ariely, Predictably Irrational
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The more you see, the more you (unconsciously) use
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WWW.TRAVELSITE.COM
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Bradley Kolar
123 Main Street
Cool City, CA 90210
(213) 555 1234
02/29/72
WBX10943
Name
Street
City, State, Zip
Phone
DOB
FF#
?????
Clunky system Airline
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Bradley Kolar ------------- ------------- -------------
Clunky system
Add Car
Passenger 2 ------------- ------------- -------------
Passenger 3 ------------- ------------- -------------
Passenger 4 ------------- ------------- -------------
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Name
Street
City, State, Zip
Phone
DOB
D/L#
Clunky system
Bad programming Bradley Kolar
123 Main Street
Cool City, CA 90210
(213) 555 1234
02/29/72
K325-65-5531
Car Rental
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Name
Street
City, State, Zip
Phone
DOB
Reward #
Clunky system
Bad programming Bradley Kolar
123 Main Street
Cool City, CA 90210
(213) 555 1234
02/29/72
CHR32134
Hotel
Submit
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Airline
Passenger: Brad Kolar
Flight: High Sky Airlines 184
Depart: ORD, 27-Jan, 5:15pm
Arrive: TPA, 27-Jan, 9:15pm
CONFIRMATION Clunky system
Bad programming
Brad Bad processes
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Airline
Passenger: Bradley Kolar
Flight: High Sky Airlines 184
Depart: ORD, 27-Jan, 5:15pm
Arrive: TPA, 27-Jan, 9:15pm
CONFIRMATION Clunky system
Bad programming
Questionable customer service skills
Bad processes
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“These guys have no clue what they are doing”
Imag
e cr
edit
: ab
idal
©1
23
rf.c
om
I’m going to get charged a fee
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High Sky Airlines Fee $25.00
Statement
Date: Dec 15 Description: Service Fee Amount: $25.00
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“They are so incompetent they can’t even get the date
right”
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You checked your father-in-law three
days ago and paid his $25.00 baggage fee.
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Using data effectively is about
setting and resetting your filters
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To see more, look at less
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Simplicity drives understanding
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Based on an example from Think Like a Freak: The Authors of Freakonomics Offer to Retrain Your Brain by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner
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Sales and advertising show increases twice a year
• Large increase– November/December
• Small increase– May/June
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Source: Think Like a Freak: The Authors of Freakonomics Offer to Retrain Your Brain by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner
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Aligning data and decisions
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Six word challenge! We should increase
marketing for X
• Profitability is down from last year
• Market Share is down from last year
• Retailers aren’t
providing enough
shelf space
We should increase
marketing for X
• Consumers aren’t
aware of the
product
• Consumers are
cost-focused
• Competitors are
aggressively driving
promotions
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Decision: Is Bobby be ready to transition to a lower level of care?
61
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Does our course provide value?
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Does course provide value?
Alignment with
priorities?
Support core skills?
Fit our cost model?
Within time guidelines?
Reach target audience?
Improves productivity?
Good transfer and application?
Fills a critical gap?
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Does course provide value?
Aligned with strategy?
Fit operating guidelines?
Has impact?
Priorities
Skills
Cost
Time
Audience
Productivity
Gap Transfer
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3-5 Main Questions
3
to
5
Sub
Ques
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Decision
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Does course provide value?
Aligned with strategy?
Fits operating guidelines?
Has impact?
Priorities
Skills
Cost
Time
Audience
Productivity
Gap Transfer
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Course provides value because . . .
Aligned with strategy
Fits operating guidelines
Has impact
Priorities
Skills
Cost
Time
Audience
Productivity
Gap Transfer
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Course does not provide value because . . .
Not aligned with strategy
Doesn’t fit guidelines
Doesn’t have impact
Priorities
Skills
Cost
Time
Audience
Productivity
Gap Transfer
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Course provides value because . . .
Aligned with strategy
Fits operating guidelines
Has impact
Cost
Time
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Bobby is ready to transition because . . .
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Simplifying your message
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1:1:1 Rule
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1 idea per sentence
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Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows the average
pretax income of the bottom 50 percent
of U.S. adults has stagnated since
1980, while the share of income of U.S.
adults in the bottom half of the
distribution collapsed from 20 percent
in 1980 to 12 percent in 2014.
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Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows that the bottom
half of US adults have taken quite a
hit. Their average pretax income has
stagnated since 1980. Also, their share
of income decreased from 20 percent
(1980) to 12 percent (2014).
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1:1:1 Rule
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1 theme per paragraph
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Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows the average pretax
income of the bottom 50 percent of U.S.
adults has stagnated since 1980, while the
share of income of U.S. adults in the bottom
half of the distribution collapsed from 20
percent in 1980 to 12 percent in 2014. In a
mirror-image move, the top 1 percent
commanded 12 percent of income in 1980
but 20 percent in 2014.
![Page 79: Rethinking data - University Of Illinois · Based on an example from Think Like a Freak: The Authors of Freakonomics Offer to Retrain Your Brain by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042304/5ecf2f69dbbbed738d71cb0e/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows that the bottom half
of US adults have taken quite a hit. Their
average pretax income has stagnated
since 1980. Also, their share of income
decreased from 20 percent (1980) to 12
percent (2014).
The trend is opposite for the top 1 percent.
During the same timeframe, their share of
income increased from 12 percent to 20.
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Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows that the bottom half of
US adults have taken quite a hit. Their
average pretax income has stagnated since
1980. Also, their share of income decreased
from 20 percent (1980) to 12 percent
(2014).
The trend is opposite for the top 1 percent.
During the same timeframe, their share of
income increased from 12 percent to 20.
![Page 81: Rethinking data - University Of Illinois · Based on an example from Think Like a Freak: The Authors of Freakonomics Offer to Retrain Your Brain by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042304/5ecf2f69dbbbed738d71cb0e/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
Six word challenge! Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows the average pretax
income of the bottom 50 percent of U.S.
adults has stagnated since 1980, while the
share of income of U.S. adults in the
bottom half of the distribution collapsed
from 20 percent in 1980 to 12 percent in
2014. In a mirror-image move, the top 1
percent commanded 12 percent of income
in 1980 but 20 percent in 2014.
Flesch-Kinkaid Grade-level: 14.5
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Six word challenge! Inequality runs deeper than thought.
New research shows that the bottom half of
US adults have taken quite a hit. Their
average pretax income has stagnated
since 1980. Also, their share of income
decreased from 20 percent (1980) to 12
percent (2014).
The trend is opposite for the top 1 percent.
During the same timeframe, their share of
income increased from 12 percent to 20.
Flesch-Kinkaid Grade-level: 8.4
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1:1:1 Rule
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1 decision per presentation
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1:1:1 Rule
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The “Five Second” Rule
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How are we doing? What needs to be fixed?
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Unfavorable/ Behind target
Some Risk/ uncertainty
On Track
Ahead of Target
Significantly Ahead
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What action do you take if
your metric is . . .
• Unfavorable to/behind target
• Some risk/uncertainty vs. target
• On track
• Ahead of target
• Significantly ahead of target
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-0.6 -0.4 -0.2 0 0.2 0.4 0.6
I am recognized for my contributions
My supervisor listens to my ideas
I get to do interesting work
My supervisor provides regular feedback
I am involved in decisions that imapct my work
There is open communication in my department
My compensation is fair
The orgnaization has a clear strategy
My orgnaization behaves in an ethical manner
I am satisfied with my benefits
Impact on satisfaction Impact on dissatisfaction
Drivers and detractors of employee satisfaction
I am satisfied with my benefits
My organization behaves in an ethical manner
The organization has a clear strategy
My compensation if fair
There is open communication in my department
I am involved in decisions that impact my work
My supervisor provides regular feedback
I get to do interesting work
My supervisor listens to my ideas
I am recognized for my contributions
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We need to focus on rebuilding the Southeast region
• Not keeping up with the market
• Not meeting organizational goals
• Leadership issues
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Six word challenge!
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Consumers will reward sustainable companies
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“There is a new candy store across the mall”
“We are getting closer to the candy store”
“We are passing the candy store!”
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We should . . .
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We should sell sustainable products
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Where would you put the diapers and the beer?
D B D
B
Next to each other As Far Apart As Possible
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The “story” in your report is incomplete
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101
Valu
e
Interpretation
Collect
Summarize
Analyze
Synthesize
Low
High
High Low
Data
Facts
Relationships/ patterns
Answers/ stories
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The structure of a six word recommendation
Action Assessment Urgency
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Action Assessment Urgency
Sell sustainable products
Start selling sustainable products
Increase Continue now cautiously slowly
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We should start selling sustainable products now!
• Customers want it • Customs will pay a premium • Our product portfolio is lacking • We are behind our competition
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Simplifying your reports
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You don’t look at reports for the numbers
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Fail – retake
Barbara Hamilton Helen Ellis Aaron Bennett Debra Warren Ernest Long George Martin Heather Mills Amy Hicks Larry Hernandez Janice Stephens Jennifer Sullivan
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Customer satisfaction report
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Store Q Performance Report
Consistently Bad (Major resources –
re-engineer)
Associates made me feel welcome
Adequacy of store hours
Associates provide appropriate assistance
Cleanliness of store
Inconsistent (Moderate resources – update
targeted processes)
On the edge of greatness (Minimal resources,
“polish”)
No hassle return
High performing (No action needed) I was greeted promptly
Associates answered all of my questions
Associates treated my courteously
Associates acted professionally
Product selection
Product pricing
Product availability
Check out simple and fast
![Page 111: Rethinking data - University Of Illinois · Based on an example from Think Like a Freak: The Authors of Freakonomics Offer to Retrain Your Brain by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022042304/5ecf2f69dbbbed738d71cb0e/html5/thumbnails/111.jpg)
Let’s see some live examples
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Creating a decision-based report
1. Define your question/decision
2. List your choices/options
3. Identify the data you will use to make your choice
4. Determine the rules for each choice
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List your choices/options
Which metrics need immediate attention?
Which metrics are at risk?
Which metrics are ok?
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Identify the data you will use to make your choice
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Identify the data you will use to make your choice
• Performance against target
• Performance against last quarter
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Determine the rules for each choice
Improving
Missing Target
Getting worse
Hitting Target
Immediate Attention Required
At Risk
No Action
At Risk
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Improving
Missing Target
Getting worse
Hitting Target
At risk
• Manufacturing defect rate • # of training hours/employee
No action needed
• Operating expense • Customer complaints (per 1000
customers)
Immediate action required • Revenue • Operating profit • Capital expenses • Customer satisfaction • Likelihood to recommend • Customer growth • Employee engagement
At risk
• Investment revenue • Product returns (%)
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Turn one of your reports into a decision-based report
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Creating a decision-based report
1. Define your question/decision
2. List your choices/options
3. Identify the data you will use to make your choice
4. Determine the rules for each choice
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The eight rules of rethinking data
• Provide answers, not numbers
• See more by looking at less
• Make things simple to foster understanding
• Separate relevant data from related data
• Provide context to create meaning
• Use reasoning to support your decisions
• Become a prosecutor not a mystery writer
• Design reports around answers not numbers
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About Avail Advisors
For nearly a decade, Avail Advisors has provided executive consulting, speaking, and leadership development to executives and leaders around the world. Our goal is to help leaders drive business success by bringing clarity, simplicity and resolution to their complex issues. We bring a unique combination of business acumen, an understanding of how people think and process information and innovative ways of re-framing challenging issues. We help leaders be more mindful in their decision-making and actions without sacrificing speed or agility.
Our clients range from Fortune 50 businesses to mid-sized companies. We also serve large non-profit organizations and local government executive teams. Avail has helped leaders in nearly every major industry across thirty-six countries.
Our clients seek us out to help them think differently about their business, their role as leaders, and their problems and issues. We pride ourselves on being “agitators” – we will challenge what you know, what you do, and how you think. The result: better outcomes for you and your organization.
Our services focus on helping executives frame problems more effectively, develop a strategic focus, drive outcomes and accountability, use data more effectively, and drive change.
If you are tired of the status quo, contact us today.
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Rethinking Data Workshop
Our Rethinking Data workshop will help you put these tips into action.
This workshop provides an overview of how to shift from being data - driven to being decision - driven.
Workshop Options
The Rethinking Data workshop is offered in several formats. We recommend the full, eight - hour instructor - led workshop, as that option provides the deepest learning experience as well as the oppo rtunity to practice and receive feedback. We offer other options to help meet your schedule and audience needs. All workshops address the eight tips at varying levels of detail and application.
Workshop Outcomes
Close the gap between analysis and action by :
• Understanding and managing the three key biases that inhibit data - driven decision making.
• Quickly defining the data needed to make a decision so that you spend more time thinking about what the data is telling you and less time searching for it.
• Turning data into act ions that drive decision making.
• Creating reports that provide answers rather than numbers, thus significantly decreasing the time needed to make a decision.
• Creating simple, logical, fact - driven recommendations and presentations that speed up and drive audience decision - making
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Rethinking Data Workshop - Feedback
• One of the most thought-provoking presentations was Brad Kolar’s. His perspective on how to present information to people, based on human evolution and how our brains are wired was extremely beneficial and fascinating. This can definitely be applied directly to real-life work situations.
• Loved it! Game changer! We need more of these. -Sales Manager, Fortune 50 Consumer Packaged Goods company
• The 10 principles Brad share [sic] were amazing, this is truly a [sic] transformational training, I wish more people on [sic] the organization took it.
• I appreciate Brad for being open and bold in his feedback. I appreciate he gave us his contact information in case we have questions afterwards. Very dedicated instructor =)
• Brad was full of energy and always showed interest in all participant’s questions, giving helpful answers to apply in the everyday routine.
• Just had a great workshop with Brad Kolar from Avail Advisors about using data more effectively. It totally changed the way we will look at and use data and will make our decision-making much more efficient and effective. Anyone whose organization is struggling to use data better should give Brad a call.
• Candid feedback from the larger group reveals that your working session was among the most popular during our time there.
• Amazing! This was the best virtual training I’ve ever taken.
• Your common sense and efficient approach this week was refreshing. I thought about trying to get out of this session but I chose to attend. Boy am I glad that I did and I really mean that. (Manager, Fortune 100 Financial Services Company)
• I thought that my reports were very simple until I took this course
• Fantastic workshop and one of the best I have ever been to! You kept our attention and engagement all day and really demonstrated to us that we can really improve how we get through all of the data and what we really need and want from it. –Claims Executive, Fortune 50 Insurance Company.
• This is one of the best classes I have taken. What I learned will help me use a better approach to making decisions and determining the best direction going forward. (Director, Systems Department, Fortune 100 Company)
• I love the simplicity of what you taught us while appreciating how complex it can be underneath the data! I am excited to start planning my report from the reverse order and then communicating in the same way! (City Manager, City of Champaign, IL)
• This is probably one of the most relevant trainings I’ve attended and I hope we can cascade this to more people in the organization.
• This course will transform the way you look at and report on data! Anyone expected to report data to leadership should take this course.
• Brad was amazing! He had complete control of the subject and of the group. He was even able to regain our attention after a fire drill.
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Contact us today!
Avail Advisors
630.343.9354
www.availadvisors.com
www.availadvisors.com/rethinkingdata