rethinking growth the schumpeterian perspective...country-specific productivity breaks reformers...
TRANSCRIPT
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Rethinking Growth The Schumpeterian Perspective
Philippe Aghion May 10th, 2017 LUISS University, Rome
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Peter Howitt
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Joseph Schumpeter
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Schumpeterian growth theory
• Long-run growth driven by innovations
• Innovations result from entrepreneurial activities motivated by prospect of innovation rents
• Creative destruction: new innovations displace old technologies
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Ufuk Akcigit
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Competition and growth: theoretical prediction
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Competition and growth: empirical relationship
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Richard Blundell
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Competition, growth and distance to frontier
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Competition and growth: the inverted-U relationship
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Outline
• Introduction
•Growth enigmas
• “Next”
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Growth enigmas
• The middle income trap
• The debate on secular stagnation
• Innovation, inequality, and social mobility
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Argentinian versus US per capita GDP
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Frontier innovation vs catch up growth
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Enhancing productivity growth in advanced countries
- Liberalization of product market
- Investment in higher education
- Liberalization of labor market
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Enhancing productivity growth in emerging market economies
• Foster technology transfers
• Reallocate factors
• Improve management practices
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Long run growth effect of1000$ per-person spending on education
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Fabrizio Zilibotti EEA Presidential Address
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Growth enigmas
• The middle income trap
• The debate on secular stagnation
• Innovation, inequality, and social mobility
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Secular stagnation?
• Gordon and the fruit-bearing tree approach
• Summers and the keynesian approach
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Two productivity growth waves
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Secular stagnation?
• Dale Jorgenson
• Missing Growth
• Europe
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Sweden versus Japan
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Country-specific productivity breaks
Reformers
Netherlands: Wassenaard agreement, 1982 • TFP growth : 1977-1983 0,5 %, 1983-2002 1,5 %
Canada, reforms initiated in early 1990s • TFP growth: 1974-1990 0,3 %, 1990-2000 1,1 %
Australia, reforms initiated in early 1990s • TFP growth: 1971-1990 0,4 %, 1990-2002 1,4 %
Sweden, reforms initiated in early 1990s • TFP growth: 1976-1992 0,4 %, 1992-2008 1,9 %
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Growth enigmas
• The middle income trap
• The debate on secular stagnation
• Innovation, inequality and social mobility
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Income shares at the very top over last 100 years: US top 1% increases from 9% in 1978 to 22% in 2012
Source: Atkinson, Piketty & Saez; High Income Database
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Two main ideas
• Different measures of inequality which must be looked at differently • Top income inequality, “Gini”, social mobility
• Innovation is a source of top income inequality which differs from other sources (entry barriers,..) • *Steve Jobs* versus *Carlos Slim*
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Why innovation differs from other sources of top 1% increase?
• Generates growth (we know)
• But in addition, *we* show that: • Innovation generates temporary rents (imitation and creative destruction)
• Innovation enhances social mobility (creative destruction)
• Innovation does not increase broad inequality
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Innovation and Top Income Inequality
Philippe Aghion (LSE)
Ufuk Akcigit (Chicago)
Antonin Bergeaud (LSE)
Richard Blundell (UCL)
David Hemous (Zurich)
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By contrast, lobbying…
• Increases top income inequality
• Increases inequality at large
• Reduces social mobility
• Does not enhance growth
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Lobbying VS Top1% (USA)
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Lobbying VS GINI (USA)
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Looking ahead
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Growth meets development
• Hsieh and Klenow
• Akcigit, Alp and Peters
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Link between the age and the size of firms
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Distribution of firms productivity
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Becoming an inventor
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Becoming an inventor
• Akcigit, Toivanen, Vaananen (Finland)
• Bell, Chetty, Jaravel, Van Reenen (US)
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Introduction
• Basic questions: 1. What determines who become inventors?
2. Income mobility of inventors versus non-inventors?
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Probability of Becoming and Inventor: IQ
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Probability of Becoming and Inventor
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Probability of Becoming and Inventor
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Probability of Becoming and Inventor
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Probability of Becoming and Inventor
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Conclusion
• We have proposed a new theory but also a new way to do growth theory, through continuous dialogue with micro-data
• Our purpose was both, to better understand the growth process and also to rethink growth policy
• Addressing growth enigmas is useful, not only to satisfy our scientific curiosity, but also for society