Climate Risk Management BC Climate Action Secretariat

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Building British Columbia’s Climate Resilience

Outline

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• Context and background for climate resilience

o What it means

o Why it matters

• Steps being taken to build B.C.’s climate resilience

o Strategic Provincial Climate Risk Assessment

o Climate Change Accountability Act

o Climate Resilience “Readiness” Framework

Government has publicly committed to releasing an Intention Paper on Adapting to Climate Change

Target Launch: June 2019

What is Climate Resilience?

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Climate resilience: The capacity of individuals, communities, institutions, businesses, and systems to thrive and succeed in spite of extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changing climatic conditions. Climate adaptation: Adjustments in social, economic or ecological systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli and their effects Disaster mitigation: measures that eliminate or reduce the impacts and risks of hazards through proactive measures taken before a disaster occurs. GHG mitigation: minimizing greenhouse gas emissions to prevent further changes to climate from taking place in the future.

Why Is Climate Resilience Important?

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• B.C. is experiencing the unavoidable effects of climate change including the increasing magnitude and frequency of such events as:

floods 2017 flood season: $73M in provincial government response costs

Estimated cost of a climate-driven, 100-yr flood in the Lower Mainland: $32B (2016 study for the Fraser Basin Council)

heat waves 2009 Vancouver heat wave: 200 additional deaths directly attributable (cause excess deaths that exceed the background death rate)

wildfires 2017 season: 65,000 people evacuated, many for 60+ days, with significant psychosocial effects felt many months after the event

extreme weather events

Precipitation: Peace Region flood in 2016 required $120M in TRAN infrastructure repairs

• Estimated cost of climate change impacts (e.g. sea level rise, health, forestry) across Canada will rise from $5B/yr in 2020, to between $21B and $43B/yr in 2050 (2011, National Round Table on the Environment and the Economy)

What the Auditor General Told Us About Resilience

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• Government is not adequately managing the risks of climate change

• Contains 17 recommendations - 15 target adaptation

• Recommendation #1: undertake a province-wide risk assessment and provide an overview of key risks and priorities

• Recommendation #2: release a new climate adaptation plan

• Recommendation: #6: performance monitoring framework

• Recommendation: #7: provide detailed public reporting on adaptation when completing legislated reporting on mitigation.

Managing Climate Change Risks – An Independent Audit B.C. Office of the Auditor General February 2018

Government wholeheartedly accepted the recommendations and committed to establishing a process to ensure their intent is achieved.

Building Blocks of Climate Resilience

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Understand Climate-Related

Risks

Build Capacity

Manage Climate-Related

Risks

Plan for a Resilient Future

Report on Climate-Related

Risks

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Understand Climate-Related Risks

• Climate risk assessment framework has been developed, consistent with provincial risk policy and standards

• To assess provincially-significant climate risks o understand risk consequences o support prioritization of government investment in adaptation

• Target completion: March 2019

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2020

Beginning with a report for the 2020 calendar year, and continuing with a report for every subsequent even-numbered calendar year, government will publicly report on climate change risks and progress. This includes: o the risks to BC that could reasonably be expected to result from a

changing climate, o the progress that has been made toward reducing those risks, o the actions that have been taken to achieve that progress, and o the plans to continue that progress.

Climate Change Accountability Act – New Reporting Requirements

Report on Climate-Related Risks

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Climate Resilience Readiness Framework

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Evaluating effectiveness is tricky

Shifting baselines

Uncertainty

Measuring risks avoided

Universal indicators inappropriate

Contribution ≠ Attribution

Long temporal horizon

Lack of universal definitions

Outcome-based

Process-based

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Capacity-based

Were adaptation outcomes accomplished? Risks avoided?

Were the processes for adaptation equitable, effective, efficient, legitimate, etc.?

Were conditions that can enable adaptation strengthened?

Vulnerability-based How is vulnerability changing?

Different Approaches to Adaptation M&E

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• Indigenous knowledge

• Regionally relevant research

Measures of Readiness

Measures of Readiness

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• Training/certification for professionals

• Public, free data sets

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• Co-produced knowledge • Adaptation trained staff

Measures of Readiness

Measures of Readiness

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• Ability to act/decide without additional permissions

• Appropriate jurisdiction

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• Strategic Plans • Public statements

Measures of Readiness

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• Public opinion/understanding surveys

• Media coverage of adaptation/climate impacts

Measures of Readiness

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• Staff capacity • Coordinating team/lead

department • Involvement in

collaborative committees

Measures of Readiness

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• Dedicated funding for implementation

• Multi-year funding • Ability to use funding;

respond to funding calls (shovel-ready projects)

Measures of Readiness

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• Projects implemented that consider adaptation

• Adaptation considered in capital planning, demographic planning

Measures of Readiness

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• Adaptation in key performance indicators

• Ongoing risk/capacity/vulnerability assessment process

• Iteration built in

Measures of Readiness

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• Commitment to reporting on adaptation

• Adaptation included in other reporting

• Adaptation included in planning progress reports

• Public disclosure of implications

Measures of Readiness

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• Planning iteration required or a commitment

• Existence of mandated/committed regular reviews

Measures of Readiness

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Evaluation Example

Questions?

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Amanda Broad, Senior Policy Analyst Climate Risk Management

BC Climate Action Secretariat Amanda.Broad@gov.bc.ca

Bours, D., McGinn, C., Pringle, P. (2014) Guidance for M&E of Climate Change Interventions. SeaChange and UKCIP, London, UK. Ford, J. and King, D. (2015) A framework for examining adaptation readiness. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 20: 505-526 Ford, J., Berrang-Ford, L., Lesnikowsky, A., Barrera, M., Heyman, S.J. (2013) How to Track Adaptation to Climate Change: A Typology of Approaches for National-Level Application. Ecology and Society 18: 40. Gagnon-Lebrun, F. and Agrawala, S. (2007) Implementing adaptation in developed countries: an analysis of progress and trends. Climate Policy 7: 392-408. Moser, S.C. and Ekstrom, J.A. (2010) A framework to diagnose barriers to climate change adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 107(51): 22026–22031. Moser, S.C. and Boykoff, M. (eds.) (2013) Successful Adaptation to Climate Change – Linking science and policy in a rapidly changing world. New York, Routledge.

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Adaptation M&E References