return of the active manager - athenainvest€¦ · phantastic objects. behavioral wealth advisor...
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Return of the Active Manager:A Behavioral Approach
March 26, 2020
C. Thomas Howard, PhD Emeritus Professor of Finance, University of Denver Chief Investment Officer, AthenaInvest
Steve Bogosian Director of Sales, AthenaInvest
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✓ Today’s Challenging Environment
✓ What is Behavioral Investing
✓ Investor Cognitive Errors
✓ Behavioral Wealth Advisor
✓ Selecting and Evaluating Managers
✓ Behavioral Investment Management
✓ Conclusions
Today’s Discussion
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TODAY’S CHALLENGING ENVIRONMENT
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Today’s Environment
✓ This is an extreme and, as a result, very emotional market
✓ The current situation challenges our ability to separate our personal feelings from the advising and investing decisions we need to make
✓ At times like this it is important to keep your hand firmly on what data is available
✓ Taking a behavioral investing approach on the rebound is a smart move and that’s what we’re talking about today
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Active Management in Recovering Markets
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WHAT IS BEHAVIORAL INVESTING?
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KEY CONCLUSIONS
PEOPLE ARE NOT RATIONAL
MARKETS ARE NOT EFFICIENT
THESE BUILT THE FOUNDATION FOR
BEHAVIORAL
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT
Nobel Prize Recognizes Behavioral Researchers
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Robert
ShillerMarket Volatility
2013
Daniel
KahnemanProspect Theory
2002
Richard
ThalerBehavioral Nudging
2017
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AthenaInvest Foundation and Research
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C. Thomas
Howard, PhDEmeritus Professor of Finance
University of Denver
Chief Investment Officer
Patented
Behavioral Research
Six US and International Patents
STRATEGY
CATEGORIES
MARKET
BAROMETERS
FUND AND
STOCK RATINGS
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1. Market prices are dominated by emotional crowds.
2. Behavioral research reveals unique market opportunities.
3. In large part, emotions determine investment outcomes.
4. Behavioral management can dramatically improve investment success.
Behavioral Foundational Concepts
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INVESTOR COGNITIVE ERRORS
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Old
Has not evolved in 150,000 years
Hungry
Consumes 20% of our daily energy but is only 3% of body weight
Impatient
Optimized to survive the threats faced 150,000 years ago
The Human Brain
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The Behavioral Investor by Daniel Crosby (2018)
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Our 150,000-Year-Old Brain
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THREAT RESPONSE
Cognitive Reaction
• Higher-level functions
decrease
Physical Reaction
• Breathing accelerates
• Blood pressure rises
• Primed for action
FAST AND AUTOMATIC
PLEASURE
Cognitive Reaction
• All brain areas
contribute
SLOW AND COMPLEX
• Threat detection
• Process positive stimuli
• Emotional memories
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Investor Cognitive Errors
The Undoing Project by Michael Lewis (2016)
Myopic Loss Aversion
Social Validation
Availability Bias
Availability Cascade
Representativeness
Framing
WYSIATI
Anchoring
Fallacy of Information
Fallacy of Control
Peak-end Memories
Fooled by Randomness
Phantastic Objects
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BEHAVIORAL WEALTH ADVISOR
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Creating High-Confidence Outcomes
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Portfolio Planning Framework – Separation of Concerns
Stable PrincipalGOAL
Loss of ValueBIGGEST RISK
Accumulate WealthGOAL
UnderperformanceBIGGEST RISK
Fund Ongoing NeedsGOAL
Decrease in PayoutBIGGEST RISK
LIQUIDITY INCOME GROWTH
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Risk in Growth Portfolios
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Sources: AthenaInvest, Thomson-Reuters Financial, Center For Research In Securities Prices, St Louis Federal Reserve FRED data base.
True RiskInGrowthPortfolio
$13,659,117 (11.0%)
$454,595 (5.7%)
$165,148 (4.1%)
$79,714 (3.1%)$0
$2,000,000
$4,000,000
$6,000,000
$8,000,000
$10,000,000
$12,000,000
$14,000,000
$16,000,000
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Asset Class Returns: $10,000 Invested in 1950 - 2019
S&P 500
T-Bond
T-Bill
CPI
T-Bills are the riskiest investment
What goes down must go up
Risk is leaving money on the table
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SELECTING AND EVALUATING MANAGERS
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We ask portfolio managers
to focus on a number of things
other than performance.
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Closet Indexing Factory
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MPT Tools
Regulations
Business Risk
Suitability
Grievances
Volatility as risk
Diversification
Tracking error
Emotional reaction
to volatility & tracking error
creates business risk
for the company.
Making of the Closet Indexing Factory
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Behavioral Finance
Discard MPT Tools
Manager Behavior
• Past performance
• Sharpe Ratio
• Tracking Error
• Style Drift
• Strategy
• Consistency
• Conviction
Avoiding the Closet Indexing Factory
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Patented Mutual Fund Categorization Methodology
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Competitive Position Profitability
Economic Conditions Quantitative
Future Growth Risk
Market Conditions Social Considerations
Opportunity Valuation
Strategy Peer Groups
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Strategy Consistency Impact on Fund Performance
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-1.11
-0.66
-0.10
0.16
1.01
-1.50
-1.00
-0.50
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
1 2 3 4 5
An
nu
al F
un
d A
lph
a
Strategy Consistency Quintile
Strategy Consistency is measured as the % of own strategy stocks held by the fund. Sample includes US Equity Funds from 1997-2017, resulting in 288,000 fund-month observations. Sources: Morningstar and AthenaInvest.
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Based on single variable, subsequent gross fund alpha regressions estimated using a data set of 44 million stock-month equity fund holdings over Jan
2001- Sep 2014.
6.1
2.3
-4.7-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Top 10 Next 10 20+
BP
Incre
ase F
und A
lpha /1%
wt
Incre
ase
Investing in High Conviction Stocks
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AVERAGE LENGTH OF ACTIVE EQUITY FUND UNDERPERFORMANCE / OUTPERFORMANCE (2003 – 2017)
How Long can a Good Fund Underperform its Benchmark?
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Source: How Long Can a Good Fund Underperform Its Benchmark, Paul D. Kaplan, Ph.D. and Maciej Kowara, Ph.D., Morningstar Manager Research, March 20, 2018
The 3 Year decision
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BEHAVIORAL INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT
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2.2
7.4
9.4
14.8
19.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
T-Bills S&P 500 Best Funds Best Stocks Best Markets
Ann
ua
l R
etu
rn
For the period April 1997 through December 2016 For details regarding truly active funds (DR5 funds), Best Idea Stocks (DR5
stocks), and Best Markets, visit AthenaInvest.com. Data sources: AthenaInvest, Thomson Reuters Financial, and Lipper
Conviction
TrackingError
LeverageEmotional Triggers
Volatility
Behavioral Investing Opportunities
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Analyst Confidence
Creditor Confidence
Manager Confidence
Athena Behavioral Investing: Pure Valuation|Profitability
Stock Picking:
• Traditional valuation combined withbehavioral factors
• High Conviction (10 stocks)
• Rules-based purchase and sell decisions
• Unconstrained
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Importance of Tail Events (Positive Skewness)
-80 -30 20 70 120 170 220
Return
Pure Stock Matched Net R2K Returns (99 stocks July 2002 - June 2019)
Patiently Harness Tail Events
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29
Tactical Strategy - Expected Market Returns
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Morningstar Category: Tactical Allocation Funds
Global Tactical ETFs Peer Group Comparison (as of 12/31/19)
30
Inception-to-Date vs. Peer Group
Athena GT 17.8%
High 10.2%
Average 5.3%
Low 0.9%
Ratings & Rankings vs. All Mutual Funds
#173 out of 12,261 Mutual Funds
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
An
nu
aliz
ed R
etu
rn %
98TH
P e r c e n t i l e
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✓ View advising and investing through the lens of behavior
✓ Separate long and short-term needs to minimize emotional impact of volatility
✓ Avoid closet indexers and the closet indexing factory
✓ Strive for excess returns through truly active management
✓ Let your managers ROAM!
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Conclusions
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Wow! I expected a terrific book from Howard and Voss, but
ROAM knocked me back. It’s a once-a-decade genre-
defining must-have-on-every-investor’s-bookshelf type of
book. Read this and your wealth (and life!) will be wiser and
smoother for it.
Richard L. Peterson M.D., author of 'Inside the Investor’s
Brain' (Wiley, 2007) and CEO of MarketPsych
Advisors – drop everything and read this book!
Barbara Stewart, CFA, Author of the Rich Thinking
series of white papers on women and finance
Voss and Howard shine a practical light on the massive
opportunity that exists for truly active fund managers in this
day and age – if they are willing to focus on identifying and
mitigating their own behavioral biases, in addition to
exploiting those of other market participants. It's a must-read
for all next-generation fund managers.
Clare Flynn Levy, Founder & CEO, Essentia Analytics
Get the Book at Amazon
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Behavioral Viewpoints – Athena’s Unique Perspective
33
Focused on Behaviors
❑ We take a behavioral view of the markets and financial advice.
❑ The AthenaInvest investment process is based entirely on behavioral factors.
❑ The Viewpoints section of our website is a valuable resource for unique behavioral perspectives.
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“In large part, emotions determine investor success.”
Tom Howard, PhD, CEO and Chief Investment Officer, AthenaInvest
Questions ?
Contact Us
Tom Howard [email protected]
Steve Bogosian [email protected]
www.AthenaInvest.com
Get behavioral insights straight to your inbox :Register at www.athenainvest.com/register
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RISKS: An investment utilizing our investment methodology involves risks, including the risk of loss of a substantial portion (or all) of the amount invested. There is
no assurance that the investment process outlined in this document will consistently lead to successful results.
You should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses carefully before investing.Athena fact sheets contain this and other
information and may be obtained from AthenaInvest by calling (877) 430-5675 or visiting us online at www.athenainvest.com. Please read the fact
sheets or prospectuses carefully before investing.
• Some figures shown are pre-inception research results. Hypothetical or simulated performance results have inherent limits. Unlike an actual performance
record, simulated investments do not represent actual investments.
• Some figures shown are past results. Past performance does not guarantee or indicate future results.
• There are risks involved with stock investing, including the risk of loss of principal. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to
successful results.
• Opinions and forecasts regarding industries, companies, countries and/or themes, and portfolio composition and holdings, are all subject to change at any time,
based on market and other conditions, and should not be construed as a recommendation of any specific security.
INDEX DEFINITIONS
Indices used in this presentation are for comparative purposes only. Index performance does not reflect fees, expenses, or taxes and it is not possible to invest
directly in an index.
For more information please call (877) 430-5675 or visit us online at www.atheninvest.com.
Copyright © 2020 AthenaInvest, Inc. All Rights Reserved. US Patents 7734526, 8352347, 8694406 | Singapore Patents 150371, 184692 | Taiwan Patent 200828170
Important Information
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