review kahneman

8/2/2019 Review Kahneman

1/3

He has the cocksureness, the insularity, and the continuous need of an audience of the born autodidact.

As one who was brought up with Herbert Simon andsatisficing, I have mixed feelings about thisbook. As an intelligence professional I know for a fact that corrupt politicians have zero interest in thefacts, only in what will profit them personally in the short-term. As much as I would like to see integrityrestored as the core value of government, economy, and society, in the larger context in which we livethis book is a curiosity.

There are gems and it is certainly worth reading, but as one other reviewer points out, it is not theeasiest reading nor the most delightful. Here is what I got out of it (my summary notes, I donate allbooks right after I read them, to a nearby university).

For those instances when BOTH intelligence (decision-support) officers and their clients (politicians,policy makers, acquisition managers, operational commanders) have integritya condition that does

not exist today, this book is very useful as a training aid.

01 It strives to provide a deeper understanding of judgments and choices by humans.

02 It fully documents the biases of intuition (judgment informed by past cases)

03 It documents the fact that decision making under uncertainty leads to humans being too prone tobelieve findings based on inadequate evidence, and too prone to avoid collecting a sufficiency ofobservations or research findings by others.

The essence of the book is the authors distinction between System 1 and System 2.

System 1 is automatic, fact, and falls prey to illusions.

System 2 is controlled, slow, requires attention, and is easily distracted.

Conclusions about judgment heuristics (rules of thumb):

HARD to think statistically

EASY to think associatively

We have EXCESS CONFIDENCE in what we think we know, and a deep, deep, deep inability toacknowledge our ignorance.

Humans DEVIATE from rational model with two major CORRUPTIONS:

01 Treat problems in isolation instead of as part of a systemic whole

02 Treat problems in relation to framing effects that distort perceptions with inconsequential trivia

QUOTE (34): We found that people, when engaged in a mental sprint, may become effectively blind.

That one sentence made the book worthwhile to me. I have long been a fan of Red Cells and walk-abouts and other forms of being forced to engage outside the box, this one sentence reminded me ofmy now firm view that all analytic teams need an independent Yoda to challenge them.


2/3

The author surprises me with a substantive discourse on how money has caused people to collaboratelessit makes them more independent of one another and displaces the social value of collaboration.

I am fascinated by the authors focus on surprise as a litmus test for the extent to which we are open.

He emphasizes that hypotheses should be confirmed by trying to REFUTE the hypothesis rather than

by searching for additional supporting evidence. Having the hypothesis is enough. If it cannot berefutes, THAT is worth much more than a documented but not seriously challenged hypothesis.

QUOTE (117): The tendency to see patterns in randomness is overwhelming.

This in the context of the anchoring effect, and the stark strong impact of preconceived notions thatshape perception of inclusive into conclusive, contradictory into confirming.

The discussion of risk, for an intelligence professional, is very very interesting. The author focuses onhow critical it is to actually have a measure of riskto know with some precision what you are definingas risk, why.

I am blown away by a discussion that makes it clear that praise or punishment are generally irrelevantfor professionals. They tend to do the best they can, and the odds are such that praise or punishmenthave no effect but appear to have effect because they zig zag along a mean. It is what it is. I connectthis with the National Football League, and how calm most team players are when they miss a catchor a block. It is what it is.

Im not sure this is the book I would want for advanced intelligence courses, but I really like chapter 19on the illusion of understanding and chapter 20 on the illusion of validity. Even if our political officialsare corrupt, we intelligence professionals should at least strive to get it right.

The author is a believer in algorithms over experts. I have mixed feelings about that. Certainly I agreethat most experts are wrong and much narrower in their understanding than common competence

requires, but I am also very skeptical of algorithms, witness Googles math hacks against digitalgarbage. As a believer in collective human intelligence (citizen wisdom councils, etcetera), I accept theimportance of taking algorithms as far as they can go, but algorithms are no better than the humanswho constructed them and the data known to the humans at that time.

I give the author great credit for providing a superb overview across the book of stars in this field. Thisis not a selfish or self-centered bookit appears to do full justice to all others.

Great thoughts in this book:

01 Capitalistsboth inventors and entrepreneursoverestimate their success rate by two times.

02 Illusion of control is increased by a failure to seek out data from others [this is one reason Ichampion M4IS2--Multinational, Multiagency, Multidisciplinary, Multidomain Information-Sharing andSense-Making) and public intelligence in the public interest).

QUOTE (262): Organizations that take the word of overconfident experts can expect costlyconsequences.

NEW TO ME: Psycho-physics--relation of mind and matter. This may be a different way of talkingabout quantum physics, but it is one more indication that mind-matter interfaces are going to be ahuge area of study in the future.

The author confirms Machiavelli 101--defenders of the status quo are always stronger than reformersseeking change [he does not say this but Kuhn and others do: UNTIL the status quo self-destructsfrom its own corruption, and the reformers are free to build on its ashes].


3/3

On page 411 he provides a very serious critique of libertarianism, pointing out that libertarians assumeall individuals are rational and see no value in aggregate services.

QUOTE (417): Observers are less cognitively bvusy and more open to information than actors.

The more I think about this, the more I think that we need a new class of intelligence professionals

who are neither collectors nor analysts, but observers in situ with decision-makers or in situ withcrisis situations, and they provide the third eye. I am writing the chapter on The Craft of Intelligencefor the next Routledge Handbook of Intelligence Studies, and this is one new idea that I credit to thisbook and author, that I plan to integrate into my thinking about the future of intelligence as a discipline.

There are two appendices and an excellent index.

As is my custom, I always use Amazons link feature to point to other related books. Here are ten inthe decision-making arena that I consider especially valuable.

Radical Man: The Process of Psycho-Social DevelopmentThe Knowledge Executive

Tools for Thought: The History and Future of Mind-Expanding TechnologyThinking in Time: The Uses of History for Decision-MakersPlanning with Complexity: An Introduction to Collaborative Rationality for Public PolicyBusiness War Games: How Large, Small, and New Companies Can Vastly Improve Their Strategiesand Outmaneuver the CompetitionReflexive Practice: Professional Thinking for a Turbulent WorldOpen Space Technology: A Users GuideAtlas of Science: Visualizing What We KnowHolistic Darwinism: Synergy, Cybernetics, and the Bioeconomics of Evolution
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