review of general fund revenues and the virggyinia...

August 21, 2017

Review of General Fund Revenues and the Virginia Economy g y

for Fiscal Year 2017

A presentation to the Senate Finance, House Appropriations, and House Finance Committees

Richard D. BrownRichard D. BrownSecretary of Finance

Overview…

Fiscal Year 2017 Year-in-Review

• Economic Performance

• Actual General Fund Collections

• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections• Actual Commonwealth Transportation Fund Collections

• Financial Results Balance Sheet

• Revenue Stabilization Fund BalanceRevenue Stabilization Fund Balance

Looking Forward

• July 2017 General Fund Collections

• Fall Forecasting Process

1

In Fiscal Year 2017, The U.S. Economy Performed Near Expectations, While Virginia’s Economic Performance Was Slightly BelowEconomic Performance Was Slightly Below What Was Projected…

• As measured on a fiscal year basis (July through June), estimated real GDP increased 2.0 percent, slightly above th f t hil ti ll l i dthe forecast, while nationally, personal income and wages and salaries grew slightly less that expected.

• In Virginia, growth in employment, personal income, and wages and salaries was below the forecast based onwages and salaries was below the forecast based on available data.

Summary of Key U.S. and Virginia Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY16 Actual

FY17 Forecast

FY17 Actual

U.S.

Real GDP 1.7 1.7 2.0

Consumer Spending 2.7 2.8 2.9p g

Employment 1.9 1.5 1.6

Personal Income 3.8 3.8 3.4

Wages & Salaries 4.6 4.3 3.5

Virginia


Professional/Business 3.2 3.5 1.8

Construction/Mining 2.8 4.6 0.3

Education/Health 3.8 2.0 3.1

Government 0.2 0.5 0.4

2

* FY17 Actual data is based on the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year. Fourth quarter data will be released in the fall and expectations are for continuing improvement based on withholding receipts.

Personal Income* 4.1 3.9 3.4

Wages & Salaries* 4.3 4.4 3.4

Including Transfers, Fiscal Year 2017 General Fund Resources Grew 4.0 Percent and Finished $136.6 Million (0.7 Percent)and Finished $136.6 Million (0.7 Percent) Above Forecast…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2017 Revenue Collections(millions of dollars)

Major Sources Official Actual Change

Withholding $11,713.3 $11,895.4 $182.1 3.6 % 5.2 %

Nonwithholding 3,048.5 3,018.5 (30.0) (0.7) (1.7)

% Growth Over FY16Official Actual

g ( ) ( ) ( )

Refunds (1,848.0) (1,861.0) (13.0) 1.5 2.2

Net Individual $12,913.8 $13,052.9 $139.1 2.9 % 4.0 %

Sales $3,386.8 $3,357.1 ($29.7) 2.8 % 1.9 %

Corporate 794.2 827.0 32.8 3.8 8.1

Wills (Recordation) 398.6 394.4 (4.2) 8.0 6.9

Insurance 344.1 340.9 (3.2) 1.5 0.5

All Other Revenue 723.5 722.9 (0.6) 1.1 1.0

Total Revenue $18,561.0 $18,695.1 $134.1 2.9 % 3.6 %

A.B.C. Profits $108.4 $110.5 $2.1 25.3 % 27.7 %

Sales Tax (0.375%) 365.4 365.9 0.5 2.8 2.9

Transfers 177.0 176.9 (0.1) 48.0 47.9

Total Transfers $650.8 $653.3 $2.5 15.9 % 16.3 %

• The gain in payroll withholding and the corporate income tax, about $215 million, was somewhat offset by shortfalls in

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $19,211.8 $19,348.4 $136.6 3.3 % 4.0 %

nonwithholding and sales tax collections.

3

Fiscal Year 2017 General Fund Revenue Grew At an Average Pace of 3.6 Percent…

14%

Growth in Total General Fund Revenue CollectionsFY17 Monthly and Year-to-Date

8.1%

4 6%

8%

10%

12%

Forecast: 2.9%

3.7% 3.6% 3.5%

5.4%

4.0%4.6% 4.5%

4.6%

3.6% 3.7% 3.6%

2%

4%

6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun

Monthly Year-to-Date

Monthly

• Total general fund revenue collections exceeded the forecast by $134.1 million, excluding transfers in fiscal year 2017, a forecast variance of 0.7 percent.

Growth: 3.7% 12.0% -2.4% 3.4% 13.4% -1.0% 7.4% 3.6% 5.7% -3.4% 4.6% 3.0%

• Total general fund revenue collections rose 3.6 percent, ahead of the annual forecast of 2.9 percent growth.

4

Payroll Withholding Tax Collections Exceeded The Annual Estimate By $182.1 Milli (1 6 P t) I Fi l Y 2017Million (1.6 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2017…

20%

Growth in Withholding Tax CollectionsFY17 Monthly and Year-to-Date

9.5%10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Forecast: 3.6%

4.1%4.3%

7.1%

4.5% 5.0% 5.0%5.3%

4.8% 5.1%5.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

Forecast: 3.6%

1.4%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun


Monthly

Growth: 1 4% 17 7% -5 8% 4 8% 18 9% -5 8% 8 0% 5 0% 6 8% 0 7% 8 2% 6 4%

• Collections of payroll withholding taxes, 63 percent of total general fund revenues, grew 5.2 percent, above the annual estimate of 3.6 percent. This is significantly improved from

Growth: 1.4% 17.7% 5.8% 4.8% 18.9% 5.8% 8.0% 5.0% 6.8% 0.7% 8.2% 6.4%

p g y pthe past fiscal year, which grew 2.4 percent.

• Both employment and wage and salary gains are the drivers of this source.

5

The Acceleration in Withholding was Broad-Based and Included Strong Growth in Large g gBusinesses…

Withholding Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2015 - 2017

Millions of Dollars

# of FirmsIndustry (% of Total $ Amount) in FY16 FY16 FY17 FY15 FY16 FY17

Millions of Dollars Percent Changey (% $ )

Public Sector (18%) 93 $2,019.7 $2,086.8 3.9% 2.9% 3.3%Education and Health Services (8%) 244 $854.9 $941.8 4.2% 6.1% 10.2%Federal Contractors (4%) 192 $431.5 $459.2 -2.6% -1.9% 6.4%Finance (3%) 134 $316 8 $376 2 3 1% 6 7% 18 8%Finance (3%) 134 $316.8 $376.2 3.1% 6.7% 18.8%Professional and Business Services (3%) 538 $344.4 $374.8 6.1% 5.9% 8.8%Investment (2%) 148 $219.7 $267.1 14.6% 7.1% 21.6%Manufacturing (1%) 174 $155.3 $158.1 -1.8% 0.5% 1.8%Transportation (1%) 41 $118 6 $135 6 1 6% 2 5% 14 3%Transportation (1%) 41 $118.6 $135.6 1.6% 2.5% 14.3%Housing (1%) 47 $98.6 $101.0 6.1% 14.7% 2.5%Other (4%) 720 $438.4 $485.7 3.1% -9.4% 10.8%

T t l L P (45%) 2 331 $4 997 8 $5 386 3 3 5% 2 5% 7 8%

Large Payers Include Payments in Excess of $100,000

Total Large Payers (45%) 2,331 $4,997.8 $5,386.3 3.5% 2.5% 7.8%Total Small Payers (55%) 242,267 $6,308.5 $6,509.1 6.8% 2.3% 3.2%Total All 244,598 $11,306.3 $11,895.4 5.3% 2.4% 5.2%

6

Individual Income Tax Nonwithholding Collections Were $30.0 (1.0 Percent) Behind Th A l E ti t I Fi l Y 2017The Annual Estimate In Fiscal Year 2017…

Growth in Estimated and Final Payments, FY97-FY17Percent Growth Over the Prior Year

60%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Estimated Payments

Final Payments

0%

10%

20%

30%

30%

-20%

-10%

0%

• Collections of nonwithholding, 16 percent of total revenues and one of the most olatile re en e so rces ere slightl

-40%

-30%

97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

and one of the most volatile revenue sources, were slightly behind expectations. Had not the Collar of $185 million been applied, the shortfall would have been much larger.

• Total nonwithholding collections fell 1.7 percent in fiscal g pyear 2017 compared with the annual estimate of a 0.7 percent decline.

7

Total Sales Tax Collections Fell Short of The Annual Estimate By $29.7 Million (0 9 P t) I Fi l Y 2017(0.9 Percent) In Fiscal Year 2017…

Growth in Sales Tax Collections FY17 Monthly and Year-to-Date

6.1%

6%

9%

12%

2.7%

0.2%-0.3%

-0 2%

0.9% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9%0%

3%

Forecast: 2.8%

-2.5%

0.2%

-9%

-6%

-3%

-12%Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun


Monthly

Growth: 6.1% 1.1% -3.5% -1.5% -9.2% 10.4% 6.3% 5.3% 2.8% -0.3% 4.1% 3.3%

• On a year-to-date basis, collections increased 1.9 percent, behind theannual estimate of 2.8 percent growth.

• Sales tax collections performed better in the second half of the fiscal year, as nationally economic conditions (especially employment)

8

year, as nationally economic conditions (especially employment) continued to improve.

Despite Declines in Supercenters, Department Stores, and Other Retail / Wholesale Business, Sales Tax Gains Occurred in Housing, GrocerySales Tax Gains Occurred in Housing, Grocery Stores and Leisure and Hospitality…

Sales Tax CollectionsFiscal Years 2015 - 2017

Millions of Dollars

# of Firms

Industry (% of Total $ Amount) in FY16 FY16 FY17 FY15 FY16 FY17

Housing (15%) 177 $504 1 $523 4 5 7% 2 3% 3 8%

Millions of Dollars Percent Change

Housing (15%) 177 $504.1 $523.4 5.7% 2.3% 3.8%

Warehouse Clubs/Supercenters (12%) 6 $429.8 $425.9 3.7% 4.0% ‐0.9%

Department Stores (9%) 126 $332.7 $326.5 0.7% ‐7.7% ‐1.9%

Grocery Stores (9%) 23 $317.8 $325.3 0.7% ‐2.1% 2.4%

R t il T d (9%) 112 $316 1 $313 0 2 3% 5 7% 1 0%Retail Trade (9%) 112 $316.1 $313.0 2.3% 5.7% ‐1.0%

Restaurants (4%) 90 $151.8 $153.5 3.2% ‐4.8% 1.1%

Wholesale Trade (2%) 78 $101.3 $76.5 3.0% 36.6% ‐24.4%

Leisure and Hospitality (2%) 63 $50.8 $54.9 13.9% ‐3.8% 8.0%

Gasoline Stores (1%) 24 $45.8 $47.1 5.4% ‐4.9% 2.8%

Other (5%) 363 $152.1 $168.2 3.1% ‐1.7% 10.5%

Total Large Payers (68%) 1,062 $2,402.3 $2,414.2 3.2% 1.0% 0.5%

Large Payers Include Payments in Excess of $100,000

• Other industry is primarily manufacturing, telecommunications,

Total 124,879 $3,443.0 $3,541.3 4.9% 2.2% 2.9%

9

y p y g, ,rental/leasing services and energy companies.

Other Revenue Sources Were Mixed Relative To Their Respective Forecasts In Fi l Y 2017Fiscal Year 2017…

Corporate Income Tax

• Corporate income tax collections exceeded its forecast by $32.8 million (4.1 percent), advancing 8.1%.

Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (Recordation Tax)

• Wills, Suits, Deeds, and Contracts (primarily recordation tax collections) finished $4.2 million behind the annual forecast (1.1 percent), advancing 6.9%.

– The first half of the fiscal year saw continued gains in the housing market, while the last 5 months were flat.

Insurance Premiums Tax

I i t ll ti f ll h t f th l• Insurance premiums tax collections fell short of the annual estimate by $3.2 million (0.9 percent).

All Other Revenues

• All Other Revenues finished $0.6 million behind expectations (0.1 percent variance).

– Declines in most minor sources were partially offset by estate taxes payments due from 2007 and prior years.

10

Commonwealth Transportation Fund (CTF) Revenues Finished Fiscal Year 2017$31 7 Milli Ah d f th Offi i l E ti t$31.7 Million Ahead of the Official Estimate…

Summary of Fiscal Year 2017 Revenue CollectionsCommonwealth Transportation Fund

(millions of dollars)( )Actual Collections Compared to the Official Forecast for Fiscal Year 2017

(Millions of Dollars)

Percent Change

FY2016 FY2017 FY2017 2016-2017 Forecast Variance

Revenue Sources Actual Actual Forecast Actual Forecast Amount Percent

Motor Fuels Tax 848.3 857.9 856.0 1.1% 0.9% 1.9 0.2%

Road Use Tax 10.9 12.3 11.1 12.8 1.8 1.2 10.8

Vehicle Sales Tax 918.9 957.7 938.0 4.2 2.1 19.7 2.1

Vehicle Licenses 253.4 260.2 253.0 2.7 (0.2) 7.2 2.8

State Sales Tax 1 000 5 1 020 4 1 023 1 2 0 2 3 -2 7 -0 3State Sales Tax 1,000.5 1,020.4 1,023.1 2.0 2.3 -2.7 -0.3

Recordation Tax 44.2 48.1 47.2 8.8 6.8 0.9 1.9

Insurance Premiums Tax 150.3 163.1 163.1 8.5 8.5 0.0 0.0

Int'l Registration Plan 67.7 66.2 68.1 (2.2) 0.6 -1.9 -2.8

Interest Earnings 3.7 6.4 3.3 73.0 (10.8) 3.1 93.9

Rental Tax 37.5 39.5 38.5 5.3 2.7 1.0 2.6

Aviation Fuels Tax 1.8 2.0 1.8 11.1 0.0 0.2 11.1

Miscellaneous 18.4 18.4 17.3 0.0 (6.0) 1.1 6.4

TOTAL $3,355.6 $3,452.2 $3,420.5 2.9% 1.9% $31.7 0.9%

• Total revenue growth was ahead of target with a 0.9 percent forecast variance.

As required by Section 33.1-23.03:8A(2) of the Code of Virginia , all revenues that exceed the official forecast are deposited into the Priority Transportation Fund.

11

– The forecast variance was due to stronger than expected motor vehicle sales tax collections.

The Fiscal Year 2017 Revenue Surplus will be Used for Various Reserves on the Commonwealth’s Balance Sheet…

Preliminary Balance SheetGeneral Fund - Budgetary (Cash) Basis (Unaudited)

Fiscal Year 2017(millions of dollars)( )

Assets

Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments $ 1,424.6

Cash, Travel Advances and Amounts Due from Other Funds 0.9

Total Assets $ 1,425.5

Liabilities and Fund Equity

Liabilities:

Payments Awaiting Distribution 76.4

Deposits Pending Distribution and Amounts Due to Other Funds 9.3

Total Liabilities $ 85.7

Fund Equity:

Reserved Fund Balance:

Revenue Stabilization Reserve Fund - 6/30/17 548.8

Additional Revenue Stabilization Deposit from 2017Additional Revenue Stabilization Deposit from 2017 -

Lottery Proceeds Fund 4.0

Water Supply Assistance Grant Fund 4.3

Total Reserved Fund Balance 557.1

Commitments and Assignments:

Reappropriation 2017 Unexpended Bal. for Cap Outlay 103.3

Central Capital Planning Fund 2.5

Communication Sales and Use Tax 35.6

Natural Disaster Sum Sufficient 11.2

Amount Required for Mandatory Reappropriations 66.2

Virginia Health Care Fund 28.1

Virginia Water Quality Improvement Fund Deposit - Part A 13.4

Virginia Water Quality Improvement Fund Deposit - Part B 9.1

Balance Required by Chapter 836 148 0Balance Required by Chapter 836 148.0

Revenue Cash Reserve 60.4

Capital Projects Reserve 60.4

Local Government Fiscal Distress Fund 0.5

Nonrecurring Expenditure 0.7

Transportation Trust Fund 1.4

Amount Required for Discretionary Reappropriations 80.0

12

Select NGF Balances 161.9

Total Committed and Assigned Fund Balance 782.7

Total Fund Equity 1,339.8

Total Liabilities and Fund Balance $ 1,425.5

A Mandatory Deposit of $605.6 Million Was Made to the Revenue Stabilization Fund in FY2017 A W ll A A Withd l f $294 7FY2017 As Well As A Withdrawal of $294.7 Million. The Fund Balance was $548.8 Million as of June 30, 2017…

Revenue Stabilization Fund June 30 BalanceRevenue Stabilization Fund – June 30 BalanceFY1995-2017 Actual and FY 2018 Forecast

(millions of dollars)

$1,200

$1,064.7

$1,189.8

$800

$1,000

$715.6

$ ,

$1,014.9

$687.5

$400

$600

$361.5

$574.6

$472.4

$340.1

$482.3

$575.1

$295 2$299.4

$303 6

$440.0 $467.7

$548.8

Mill

ion

s

$0

$200

$80.1$85.0

$156.6

$224.3 $247.5$295.2 $303.6

$235.5$281.8

• Another withdrawal estimated at $272.5 million will occur in FY2018.

13

• A mandatory deposit is not required to the Fund in FY 2018. Also, pending certification by the Auditor of Public Accounts, we estimate no deposit will be required in FY 2019.

The Official Fiscal Year 2018 Total General Fund Revenue and Transfers Forecast C ll F A 2 5 P I C dCalls For A 2.5 Percent Increase Compared to Actual Collections for Fiscal Year 2017…

Summary of General Fund Revenue Collections

Official Estimate

% Annual Growth Req By

Actual Collections % Actual Amount

Official Estimate

% Change From

Summary of General Fund Revenue Collections FY2017 and FY2018(millions of dollars)

Estimate FY2017

Req By Estimate

Collections FY2017

% Actual Growth

Amount Variance

Estimate FY2018

From Actual

Revenue Source

Individual Income Tax:

Withholding 11,713.3$ 3.6% 11,895.4$ 5.2% 182.1$ 12,103.9$ 1.8%

Tax Dues/Estimated Payments 3,048.5 -0.7 3,018.5 (1.7) (30.0)$ 3,229.7 7.0

(Refunds) (1 848 0) 1 5 (1 861 0) 2 2 (13 0) (1 943 6) 4 4(Refunds) (1,848.0) 1.5 (1,861.0) 2.2 (13.0) (1,943.6) 4.4

Net Individual Income Tax 12,913.8 2.9 13,052.9 4.0 139.1 13,390.0 2.6

Sales and Use 3,386.8 2.8 3,357.1 1.9 (29.7) 3,450.6 2.8

Corporate Income 794.2 3.8 827.0 8.1 32.8 840.6 1.6

Insurance Premiums 344.1 1.5 340.9 0.5 (3.2) 364.8 7.0

Wills, Suits, Deeds, Contracts 398.6 8.0 394.4 6.9 (4.2) 407.9 3.4

Interest 61.8 17.5 56.0 6.4 (5.8) 61.8 10.4

Other Revenue 661.7 (0.2) 666.8 0.6 5.1 677.6 1.6

Total General Fund Revenue 18,561.0 2.9 18,695.1 3.6 134.1 19,193.3 2.7

Transfers 650.8 15.9 653.3 16.3 2.5 640.8 -1.9

Total General Fund Resources 19,211.8$ 3.3% 19,348.4$ 4.0% 136.6$ 19,834.1$ 2.5%

14

The Current IHS Markit Outlook for Fiscal Year 2018 Shows Improved Growth…Year 2018 Shows Improved Growth…

• Supported by robust gains in employment and household wealth, real consumer spending (the biggest component of GDP) is forecast to advance at a 2.7 percent rate.

• A crisis of confidence due to uncertain fiscal and monetary policy are risks to the economy.

Summary of Key U S and Virginia Economic IndicatorsSummary of Key U.S. and Virginia Economic IndicatorsPercent Change Over the Prior Fiscal Year

FY17Actual Official July

U S

FY18

U.S.

Real GDP 2.0 2.3 2.6

Consumer Spending 2.9 2.2 2.7


Personal Income 3 4 4 7 4 1Personal Income 3.4 4.7 4.1

Wages & Salaries 3.5 5.0 4.3

Virginia

Employment 1.1 1.0 tbd

Professional/Business 1.8 2.3 tbd

Construction/Mining 0.3 3.5 tbd

Personal Income* 3.4 4.2 tbd

Wages & Salaries* 3.4 3.9 tbd

15

* FY17 Actual data is based on the first 3 quarters of the fiscal year.

July’s Revenue Collections were up 5.4 percent…

Summary of July FY18 Revenue CollectionsSummary of July FY18 Revenue Collections

As a %of Total YTD Annual

Major Source Revenues Actual Estimate Variance

Percent Growth over Prior Year

Withholding 63.1 % 6.7 % 1.8 % 4.9 %Nonwithholding 16.8 (25.6) 7.0 (32.6)Refunds (10.1) 28.4 4.4 24.0 Net Individual 69.8 3.6 2.6 1.0

S l 18 0 2 8 2 9Sales 18.0 5.7 2.8 2.9Corporate 4.4 196.6 1.6 195.0Wills (Recordation) 2.1 4.2 3.4 0.8Insurance 1.9 n/a 7.0 n/aAll Other Revenue 3.9 11.8 2.3 9.5

- July is not a significant month, representing only 6 percent of the FY18 forecast

Total 100.0 % 5.4 % 2.7 % 2.7 %

the FY18 forecast.

- The July increase was largely due to 2 factors:• Payroll withholding remained strong.• Sales tax collections increased by almost 6 percent.

16

y p

The Fall Forecasting Process Will Begin In September…September…

• Trends in revenue collections over the next few months will be incorporated into the fall forecasting process.

– September:• Individual, corporate, and insurance estimated

payments are due.

– October:• Retailer corporate estimated payments are due.• Joint Advisory Board of Economists (JABE) reviews

economic projections for current and next biennium.

– November:• Corporate refunds from extension returns peak.• Governor’s Advisory Council on Revenue Estimates

(GACRE) i f t f fi l(GACRE) reviews revenue forecast for fiscal year 2018 and 2019-2020 biennium.

– December:• General fund revenue forecast finalizedGeneral fund revenue forecast finalized.• Governor McAuliffe’s amendments to the 2017-2018

budget and 2019-2020 budget are presented to the Joint Money Committees.

17

Appendix

Fiscal Year 2017 General Fund Collections: Actual and Official Forecast

Official General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2018

Official Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2018

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues, Fiscal Years 1961 to ,2018

June 2017 Revenue Report

July 2017 Revenue ReportJuly 2017 Revenue Report

Note:

The General Fund Preliminary Annual Report, August, 2017 is available at the Department of Accounts web site (www.doa.virginia.gov).

Thi t ti i il bl t th S t f Fi bThis presentation is available at the Secretary of Finance web site (www.finance.virginia.gov).

18

(Dollars in Millions)

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 764.9 (8.0) % $ 794.2 $ 827.0 $ 32.8 3.8 % 8.1 %


Gross 14,376.4 10.5 14,761.8 14,913.9 152.1 2.7 3.7

Withholding 11,306.3 2.4 11,713.3 11,895.4 182.1 3.6 5.2

Nonwithholding 3,070.1 0.9 3,048.5 3,018.5 (30.0) (0.7) (1.7)

Refunds (1,820.7) 3.6 (1,848.0) (1,861.0) (13.0) 1.5 2.2

Net 12,555.6 1.8 12,913.8 13,052.9 139.1 2.9 4.0

Insurance Company Premiums 339.1 12.8 344.1 340.9 (3.2) 1.5 0.5

State Sales & Use Tax 3,295.9 1.9 3,386.8 3,357.1 (29.7) 2.8 1.9

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 369.1 6.6 398.6 394.4 (4.2) 8.0 6.9

Total Major Tax Sources $ 17,324.6 1.7 % $ 17,837.5 $ 17,972.2 $ 134.7 3.0 % 3.7 %

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES

Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 175.3 5.6 % $ 183.2 $ 180.7 $ (2.5) 4.5 % 3.1 %

Bank Franchise Tax 17.8 (6.5) 18.4 22.0 3.6 3.4 23.9

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 42.3 1.0 42.3 41.7 (0.6) 0.1 (1.4)

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 53.6 10.4 50.0 53.4 3.4 (6.8) (0.5)

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (7.4) (8.5) (7.1) (7.9) (0.8) 3.4 (7.9)

Estate & Gifts 0.2 126.5 0.0 8.2 8.2 (100.0) n/a

Institutional Revenues 5.3 (28.8) 6.0 2.3 (3.7) 14.2 (57.0)

Interest & Rents 52.6 7.3 61.8 56.0 (5.8) 17.5 6.4

Licenses & Permits 4.1 1.6 4.1 4.2 0.1 (0.6) 0.9

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 240.3 3.5 230.0 237.3 7.3 (4.3) (1.3)

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 38.8 18.3 37.0 30.1 (6.9) (4.6) (22.4)

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 92.6 (6.0) 97.8 95.1 (2.7) 5.6 2.7

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 715.5 3.3 % $ 723.5 $ 722.9 $ (0.6) 1.1 % 1.0 %

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 18,040.1 1.7 % $ 18,561.0 $ 18,695.1 $ 134.1 2.9 % 3.6 %

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 86.5 3.8 % $ 108.4 $ 110.5 $ 2.1 25.3 % 27.7 %

Sales Tax (0.25%) 355.5 0.9 365.4 365.9 0.5 2.8 2.9

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 119.6 (39.7) 177.0 176.9 (0.1) 48.0 47.9

Total Transfers $ 561.6 (11.4) % $ 650.8 $ 653.3 $ 2.5 15.9 % 16.3 %

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 18,601.7 1.3 % $ 19,211.8 $ 19,348.4 $ 136.6 3.3 % 4.0 %

August 21, 2017

% Growth Over FY 16Official

The Official to Actual General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2017

Official Actual

Fiscal Year 2016 Fiscal Year 2017

% Growth Forecast Actual VarianceActual

The December forecast is based on the October 2016 IHS Markit Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation with recommendations from GACRE and Governor's amendments.

The Official forecast is based on the October 2016 IHS Markit Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation and includes actions of the 2017 General Assembly Session -- Chapter 836.

(Dollars in Millions)

MAJOR TAX SOURCES

Corporate Income $ 824.9 $ 840.6 $ 15.7 3.9 % 5.8 % $ 1,619.1 $ 1,634.8 $ 15.7


Gross 15,322.8 15,333.6 10.8 3.8 3.9 30,084.6 30,095.4 10.8

Withholding 12,100.2 12,103.9 3.7 3.3 3.3 23,813.5 23,817.2 3.7

Nonwithholding 3,222.6 3,229.7 7.1 5.7 5.9 6,271.1 6,278.2 7.1

Refunds (1,942.6) (1,943.6) (1.0) 5.1 5.2 (3,790.6) (3,791.6) (1.0)

Net 13,380.2 13,390.0 9.8 3.6 3.7 26,294.0 26,303.8 9.8

Insurance Company Premiums 364.8 364.8 0.0 6.0 6.0 708.9 708.9 0.0

State Sales & Use Tax 3,445.5 3,450.6 5.1 1.8 1.9 6,831.3 6,837.4 6.1

Wills, Suits, Deeds, & Contract Fees 407.9 407.9 0.0 2.3 2.3 806.5 806.5 0.0

Total Major Tax Sources $ 18,423.3 $ 18,453.9 $ 30.6 3.3 % 3.5 % $ 36,259.8 $ 36,291.4 $ 31.6

MISCELLANEOUS TAXES AND OTHER REVENUES

Alcoholic Beverage State Tax $ 187.9 $ 191.4 $ 3.5 3.6 % 4.5 % $ 369.2 $ 374.6 $ 5.4

Bank Franchise Tax 18.4 18.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.8 36.8 0.0

Beer & Beverage Excise Tax 42.3 42.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 84.6 84.6 0.0

Corporate Franchise & Charter Fees 50.0 50.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 100.0 0.0

Excess & Other Fees from Officers (7.1) (7.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (14.2) (14.2) 0.0

Estate & Gifts 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/a 0.0 0.0 n/a

Institutional Revenues 6.0 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.0 12.0 0.0

Interest & Rents 61.8 61.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 123.6 123.6 0.0

Licenses & Permits 4.1 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.2 8.2 0.0

Miscellaneous Taxes and Penalties 237.4 237.8 0.4 3.4 3.4 466.9 467.8 0.9

Other Miscellaneous Revenues 36.6 36.9 0.3 (0.5) (0.3) 73.4 73.9 0.5

Public Service GR / Consumption Tax 97.8 97.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 195.6 195.6 0.0

Total Misc. Taxes and Other Revenues $ 735.2 $ 739.4 $ 4.2 2.0 % 2.2 % $ 1,456.1 $ 1,462.9 $ 6.8

TOTAL GF REVENUES $ 19,158.5 $ 19,193.3 $ 34.8 3.2 % 3.4 % $ 37,715.9 $ 37,754.3 $ 38.4

TRANSFERS

A.B.C. Profits $ 101.4 $ 103.0 $ 1.6 4.2 % (5.0) % $ 198.7 $ 211.4 $ 12.7

Sales Tax (0.375%) 374.0 374.3 0.3 2.4 2.4 739.4 739.7 0.3

Transfers Per Appropriations Act 133.9 163.5 29.6 (2.4) (7.6) 271.1 340.5 69.4

Total Transfers $ 609.3 $ 640.8 $ 31.5 1.6 % (1.5) % $ 1,209.2 $ 1,291.6 $ 82.4

TOTAL GENERAL FUND $ 19,767.8 $ 19,834.1 $ 66.3 3.2 % 3.2 % $ 38,925.1 $ 39,045.9 $ 120.8

OfficialDecember Forecast ForecastForecast Forecast Change

December OfficialFiscal Year 2018

The December to Official General Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2018April 28, 2017

% Growth Over FY 17ChangeOfficial

2016-2018 BienniumDecember

The December forecast is based on the October 2016 IHS Markit Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation with recommendations from GACRE and Governor's amendments.

The Official forecast is based on the October 2016 IHS Markit Standard Outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation and includes actions of the 2017 General Assembly Session -- Chapter 836.

The Official and August Commonwealth Transportation Fund Forecast for Fiscal Year 2018(Dollars in Millions)

August 21, 2017

Fiscal Year 2017 Fiscal Year 2018Official August % Growth over FY 17

Actual % Growth Forecast Forecast Change Official August

Highway Maintenance & Operating Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 695.1 1.5 % $ 699.0 $ 702.3 $ 3.3 0.6 % 1.0 %Road Tax 4.2 44.8 2.7 3.8 1.1 (35.7) (10.0)Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 721.8 4.5 712.1 729.1 17.0 (1.3) 1.0Motor Vehicle License Fees 237.9 2.6 233.5 239.9 6.4 (1.8) 0.8Retail Sales and Use Tax 277.1 0.1 291.7 281.8 (9.9) 5.3 1.7International Registration Plan 66.2 (2.2) 64.0 62.2 (1.8) (3.3) (6.0)Miscellaneous 18.4 0.0 17.3 18.4 1.1 (6.0) 0.0Total State Taxes and Fees $ 2,020.7 1.6 % $ 2,020.3 $ 2,037.5 $ 17.2 (0.0) % 0.8 %

Transportation Trust Fund

Motor Fuels Tax $ 162.8 (0.4) % $ 166.0 $ 164.6 $ (1.4) 2.0 % 1.1 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 163.1 8.5 169.1 168.0 (1.1) 3.7 3.0Road Tax 8.1 1.3 8.0 8.0 0.0 (1.2) (1.2)Motor Vehicle Sales And Use Tax 235.9 3.5 235.2 238.1 2.9 (0.3) 0.9Motor Vehicle License Fees 22.2 2.8 21.9 22.8 0.9 (1.4) 2.6Retail Sales and Use Tax 743.3 2.7 753.5 760.7 7.2 1.4 2.3Recordation Tax 48.1 63.1 48.4 49.2 0.9 0.5 2.4Interest Earnings 6.4 73.0 2.3 4.5 2.2 (64.1) (30.3)Rental Tax 39.5 5.3 39.6 40.6 1.0 0.3 2.9Aviation Fuels Tax 2.0 11.1 1.8 2.0 0.2 (10.0) 0.0Total State Taxes and Fees $ 1,431.4 4.7 % $ 1,445.8 $ 1,458.5 $ 12.7 1.0 % 1.9 %

Total HMOF And TTF

Motor Fuels Tax $ 857.9 1.1 % $ 865.0 $ 866.9 $ 1.9 0.8 % 1.1 %Insurance Premiums Tax (1/3) 163.1 8.5 169.1 168.0 (1.1) 3.7 3.0Road Tax 12.3 12.8 10.7 11.8 1.1 (13.0) (4.2)Motor Vehicle Sales and Use Tax 957.7 4.2 947.3 967.2 19.9 (1.1) 1.0Motor Vehicle License Fees 260.1 2.6 255.4 262.6 7.2 (1.8) 1.0International Registration Plan 66.2 (2.2) 64.0 62.2 (1.8) (3.3) (6.0)Retail Sales and Use Tax 1,020.4 2.0 1,045.2 1,042.5 (2.7) 2.4 2.2Recordation Tax (3 cents) 48.1 8.8 48.4 49.2 0.9 0.5 2.4Interest Earnings 6.4 73.0 2.3 4.5 2.2 (64.1) (30.3)Rental Tax 39.5 5.3 39.6 40.6 1.0 0.3 2.9Aviation Fuels Tax 2.0 11.1 1.8 2.0 0.2 (10.0) 0.0Miscellaneous 18.4 0.0 17.3 18.4 1.1 (6.0) 0.0

Total State Taxes and Fees $ 3,452.2 2.9 % $ 3,466.1 $ 3,496.0 $ 29.9 0.4 % 1.3 %

Transfers per the Appropriations ActRetail Sales Tax - AST (TTF) 0.0 n/a 0.0 0.0 0.0 n/a n/aTotal Transfers $ 0.0 n/a $ 0.0 $ 0.0 $ 0.0 n/a n/a %

Total Transportation Fund $ 3,452.2 2.9 $ 3,466.1 $ 3,496.0 $ 29.9 0.4 % 1.3 %

The Official forecast is based on the November 2016 Global Insight Standard outlook and the corresponding Virginia state forecast developed by the Department of Taxation.The August forecast is based on FY17 actual collectons.

Growth in Total General Fund Revenues

Fiscal Year 1961 - Fiscal Year 2018

(Nominal - Actual Dollars)

FY Total Revenues Growth FY Total Revenues Growth

61 230,998,887 - 90 5,494,884,000 0.3%

62 242,144,567 4.8% 91 5,471,879,000 -0.4%

63 286,304,265 18.2% 92 5,623,213,000 2.8%

64 298,033,919 4.1% 93 6,133,637,000 9.1%

65 323,213,412 8.4% 94 6,503,368,000 6.0%

66 365,129,776 13.0% 95 6,881,145,000 5.8%

67 414,755,644 13.6% 96 7,356,110,000 6.9%

68 533,597,744 28.7% 97 7,949,327,000 8.1%

69 706,254,374 32.4% 98 8,773,520,000 10.4%

70 743,721,322 5.3% 99 9,702,747,000 10.6%

71 807,954,651 8.6% 00 10,788,482,000 11.2%

72 922,653,686 14.2% 01 11,105,275,000 2.9%

73 1,054,469,443 14.3% 02 10,678,954,000 -3.8%

74 1,168,562,871 10.8% 03 10,867,149,000 1.8%

75 1,303,178,893 11.5% 04 11,917,867,000 9.7%

76 1,428,421,157 9.6% 05 13,687,252,000 14.8%

77 1,636,301,819 14.6% 06 14,834,298,000 8.4%

78 1,923,085,084 17.5% 07 15,565,827,000 4.9%

79 2,115,211,522 10.0% 08 15,766,951,000 1.3%

80 2,344,928,934 10.9% 09 14,315,060,000 -9.2%

81 2,579,663,941 10.0% 10 14,219,477,000 -0.7%

82 2,796,458,741 8.4% 11 15,040,200,000 5.8%

83 2,975,687,935 6.4% 12 15,846,665,000 5.4%

84 3,397,710,261 14.2% 13 16,684,600,000 5.3%

85 3,790,816,000 11.6% 14 16,411,400,000 -1.6%

86 4,131,778,000 9.0% 15 17,735,600,000 8.1%

87 4,590,434,000 11.1% 16 18,040,100,000 1.7%

88 5,054,382,000 10.1% 17 18,695,100,000 3.6%

89 5,478,912,000 8.4% 18* 19,193,300,000 2.7%

* Chapter 836 (Excludes Transfers)

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200

400

600

800

1000

1200

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1600

1800

2000

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JUL

AU

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-10-

review of general fund revenues and the virggyinia...

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