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CHAPTER III
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
3.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the review of literature with a view to examine how the
problem has been analyzed by different researchers from time to time. The review is
classified in to four parts as under:
1. Studies focused on agricultural growth
2. Studies focused on growth and instability in agriculture.
3. Studies focused on the decomposition of sources of instability.
4. Other related studies.
3.2 Studies Focused on Agricultural Growth
Haffis et al., (1992)1 worked out the growth patterns on food grains economy of
India. This study employed secondary data of 40 years time series from 1949-50 to 1988-89.
The net results emerged than the study that though the productivity of food grain crops
has increased during the last 40 years, nut this increase in productivity has failed to boost
up the area under the production of these crops due to the shifting of a portion of land.
The contribution of yield effect increased from 53.42 per cent in the first decade to
104.06 per cent in the fourth decade. Finally, the study concludes at a low growth rate or
present level of area, our country has achieved self-sufficiency in food grains production
recently. Some implications of the policy are given in the study.
Singh and Kaur (1992)2 studied the growth in agricultural productivity in Punjab.
It had been increasing at a growth rate of little above 4 per cent during the seventies and
eighties. The average productivity per hectare increased from Rs. 3294 per hectare in
1 Haffis , Shaik, Y. V. R. Reddy, P. Lakshmi and R. K. Raju, (1992), “Growth Patterns in Foodgrains
Economy of India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLVI, No.12, pp: 905-908. 2 Singh, Karam and Kulwinder Kaur, (1992), “Growth in Agricultural Productivity and Nature of
Technological Changes in Punjab Agriculture”, Agricultural Situation of India, Vol. XLVII, No. 4,
pp: 355-358.
33
1970-71 to Rs. 4914 in 1980-81 and further to Rs. 6544 per hectare in 1988-89.
The growth in productivity was leveling off in various districts. During the seventies, as
many as 4 districts had growth rate higher than 5 per cent but during the eighties only
2 districts had this much growth.
Verma (1992)3 reviewed the contribution of agriculture as growth component can
be analyzed and examined in terms of (i) product contribution; (ii) factor contribution and
(iii) market contribution. It would be interesting to discuss how Indian agriculture had
behaved on these fronts in recent past and particularly during 80‟s.
Sinha and Thakur (1993)4 analyzed the growth performance of major food crops
in Bihar. The study highlights the remarkable increase in area, production and productivity of
the wheat followed by rice and maize throughout the study period. The variability analysis
revealed that the yield for all these three crops was found to be more stable in the post-green
revolution period as compared to the pre-green revolution period. Further, the Chow‟s test
also supported the fact that the new production technology had a significant impact in
production process of Wheat and Maize during the Green Revolution period. In case of rice,
technological progress was observed over the time, though it has no significant impact on the
production of rice during the period of Green Revolution.
Bastine and Palanisami (1994)5 analyzed the trends in growth rates over the
period 1965-66 to 1989-90 and the decadal changes in growth rates of area, production
and productivity of major crops of Kerala. Despite the fact that the value of the
agricultural product per unit of land in Kerala is one of the highest in the country because
of diverse crop combination.
3 Verma, B. N. (1992), “Agriculture as a Growth Component in Indian Economy During 80‟s”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLVI, No.11, pp: 793-798. 4 Sinha, D. K., and Jawahar Thakur, (1993), “An Economic Analysis of Growth Performance of Major
Food Crops in Bihar”, Agricultural Situation of India, Vol. XLVIII, No. 7, pp: 543-548. 5 Bastine, C. Latha and K. Palanisami, (1994), “An Analysis of Growth Trends of Principal Crops in
Kerala”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLVIII, No.12, pp: 885-891.
34
Bhatnagar and Nandal (1994)6 addressed about the growth of wheat in Haryana.
The result suggested that the growth rates of wheat for a period of 25 years (1966-67 to
1990-91) were found highly significant. Interaction between area and yield had played a
significant role in increasing the production of wheat. Further, the production has
increased to a larger extent by adoption of high yielding varieties of wheat, good
irrigation facilities, good consumption of fertilizers, adoption of proper technology and
also good harvesting price of wheat. Thus, wheat being a relatively much less risky crop
as compared to other Rabi crops impetus the farmers to increase the area under wheat.
Naidu et al., (1994)7 points out the trends in area, production and productivity of
major crops in Andhra Pradesh. They found that the time series analysis from 1980-81 to
1989-90 indicated high productivity of rice per unit of area in Srikakulam district and
increase in area under groundnut in all the three districts viz., Srikakulam, Vizianagaram
and Visakhapatnam. They also concluded that ragi and bajra based cropping system was
slowly fading away and in its place the more remunerative commercial crops like
groundnut and sugarcane were creeping in. Though the sesamum and mesta were other
important crops of this area, better deal to be given to these crops for better production
and productivity. Setting up of a full-fledged groundnut research station may be highly
helpful to the oilseed farmer of this tract.
Singh and Singh (1994)8 estimated the growth of agriculture in Punjab. The paper
shows that Punjab had made a remarkable progress in agriculture. The need of the day
was to sustain agricultural productivity. Over-exploitation of underground water was a
matter of great concern to agricultural scientists and the Government. Area under
protective food crops like pulses had declined. There was a need to increase area under
leguminous crops so that they may enrich the soil with nitrogen. Besides chemical
fertilizers use of organic manures should also be encouraged.
6 Bhatnagar, Sharad and D. S. Nandal, (1994), “Growth of Wheat in Haryana”, Agricultural Situation
of India, Vol. XLIX, No. 8, pp: 575-578. 7 Naidu, M. R., K. Ramalinga Swamy and T. K. V. V. Mallikarjuna Rao, (1994), “Trends in Area,
Production and Productivity of Major Crops in North Coastal Districts of Andhra Pradesh”,
Agricultural Situation of India, Vol. XLIX, No. 8, pp: 571-574. 8 Singh, Guriqbal and Jasvinder Singh, (1994), “Growth of Agriculture in Punjab”, Agricultural
Situation of India, Vol. XLIX, No. 8, pp: 587-591.
35
Ghosh and Neogi (1995)9 carried out the supply response of foodgrains and policy
actions. They made an attempt to study the growth of per capita production of rice, wheat and
foodgrains as a whole and to find out the possible connection between different policy
actions of the government, on the one hand, and production and marker prices, on the other.
Mander and Sharma (1995)10
dealt with production performance of cereal crops in
India. The data for the study were obtained from statistical Abstracts of India for the
years 1966-67 through 1988-89. The growth rates of production, area and yield of
important cereal crops such as rice, jowar, maize, bajra and wheat for different States
were worked out by making use of an exponential function.
Sharma and Joshi (1995)11
discussed about the performance of rice production
and factors affecting acreage under rice in regions of India. For the purpose of this study,
secondary data on acreage, production and yield of rice in different traditional coastal and
non-traditional rice growing regions were collected from different published sources for
the periods 1970-71 to 1988-89. Compound growth rates of acreage, production and yield
of rice were worked out by fitting exponential functions.
Maheshwari (1996)12
assessed the agricultural growth in Karnataka. She used the
kinked exponential estimates of rates of growth to arrive at more complete picture of trends,
it was found that in Karnataka the yield increased brought about by HYV seeds were not
really revolutionary. These findings pointed out the importance of water management in a
semi-dry area like Karnataka in maintaining growth in the agricultural sector.
9 Ghosh, Nilabja and Chiranjib Neogi, (1995), “Supply Response of Foodgrains and Policy Actions:
A Model with Rational Exceptional Hypothesis”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol.
50, No. 2, pp: 135-152. 10
Mander, G. S., and J. L. Sharma, (1995), “Production Performance of Cereal Crops in India – State-wise
Analysis”, Agricultural Situation of India, Vol. XLXII, No. 28, pp: 57-61. 11
Sharma, Vijay Paul and P. K. Joshi, (1995), “Performance of Rice Production and Factors Affecting
Acreage under Rice in Coastal Regions of India”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Vol. 50, No. 2, pp: 153-167. 12
Maheshwari, Asha, (1996), “Agricultural Growth in a Semi-Arid Area – The Case of Karnataka”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp: 315-327.
36
Misra and Panda (1996)13
analyzed the development of agriculture in Orissa during
eighties and indicate the strategy that need to be followed in the nineties. They found that the
growth rate of agricultural production had shown no significant increase during 1969-70 to
1981-82. However, the recent development in production is not so unsatisfactory.
The growth rate of production and yield of all the crops was found quite significant.
Prasad et al., (1996)14
assessed the growth pattern in area, production and
productivity of rice crop and also found out the causes for disparities in rice yield in
Karimnagar district of Andhra Pradesh. In order to find out the growth pattern they
collected secondary data from season and crop reports and computed compound growth
rates with help of exponential function. They also collected the primary data to prove the
yield discrepancies. They found that the co-efficient of variation of area, production and
productivity were found to be by and large stable in the study area. They also found that
the soil type, soil fertility and irrigation sources were the reasons for yield disparities in
the sample area.
Singh et al., (1996)15
analyzed the growth behaviour of agriculture in the State of
Madhya Pradesh. They also used the exponential form of the function. Their study covers
two short-run and one long-run period to analyze the growth behaviour. They found that
the growth rates of area, production and productivity of most of the crops were
statistically significant during short-run. Their analysis revealed that there was a need to
minimize acreage fluctuations via expanding irrigational network.
Tripathy (1996)16
made an attempt to find the growth and trends in area, yield and
production of rice in Orissa. The results of the present study indicated that the output of
13
Misra, B. and R. K. Panda, (1996), “Perspectives of Agricultural Development in Orissa”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIII, No. 6, pp: 403-408. 14
Prasad, Y. Eswara, M. Manohar Rao and Narasimbha Reddy, (1996), “Analysis of Growth and Causes
for yield Disparities in Rice in Karimnagar District of Andhra Pradesh”, Agricultural Situation in
India, Vol. LIII, No. 2, pp: 69-72. 15
Singh, Lal Mrigendra, Neelkanth G. Pendse and S. K. Choubey, (1996) “An Economic Analysis of
Crop Production in Madhya Pradesh during 1969-70 to 1991-92”, Agricultural Situation in India,
Vol. LIII, No. 2, pp: 89-92. 16
Tripathy, S. (1996), “Growth and Trends in Area, Yield and Production of Rice in Orissa”,
Agricultural Situation of India, Vol. LII, No. 10, pp: 661-664.
37
rice during the post-green revolution period grew at an annual rate of 1.43 per cent and
this was contributed solely by per-hectare yield. Area under rice experienced deceleration
due to diversion of area to oilseeds and pulses.
Bhalla and Singh (1997)17
highlighted the results of an analysis of state level data
on area and output of 43 crops for the years from 1962-65 to 1992-95. It reveled that
there was a marked acceleration in the growth rate of agriculture output in India during
1980-83 to 1992-95 as compared with the earlier periods. Furthermore, Agricultural
growth had become regionally much more diversified.
Dhindsa and Sharma (1997)18
attempted to analyze the growth behaviour and
factors influencing the supply of various pulse crops in Punjab. The specific objectives of
the study were (a) to study the growth of area, production and yield of various pulse
crops in Punjab during 1966-67 to 1991-92, (b) to examine the acreage response of
various factors determining the decisions regarding allocation of land among different
pulse crops in Punjab and its various sub-regions, (c) to estimate the short-run elasticities
of acreage under various pulse crops with respect to various price and non-price factors
and (d) to suggest measures to increase the production of pulse crops in the state.
Kalirajan and Shand (1997)19
studied the sources of output growth in Indian
agriculture. They observed that TFP growth in the pre-reform period was negative in four
out of 15 states and that, by the end of the decade, it was small for those states where the
contribution of TFP growth was positive. The contribution of technology (in its two
components) to output growth declined substantially, particularly from 1988 to 1990.
Sawant (1997)20
presented an update of growth performance of India‟s
agricultural sector for the green revolution period. He focused on the national and state
17
Bhalla, G. S., and Gurmail Singh, (1997), “Recent Developments in Indian Agriculture: A State Level
Analysis”, Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 32, No. 13, pp: A2-A18. 18
Dhindsa, K. S. and Anju Sharma, (1997), “A Regional Analysis of Growth and Supply Responses of
Pulses – A Study of Punjab”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, No. 1, pp: 87-100. 19
Kalirajan, K. P. and R. T. Shand, (1997), “Sources of Output Growth in Indian Agriculture”, Indian
Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, No. 4, pp: 693-706. 20
Sawant, S. D., (1997), “Performance of Indian Agriculture with Special Reference to Regional
Variations”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp: 374-386.
38
level analysis of aggregate growth performance, i.e., of crop and livestock sub-sectors
combined, elaborates evaluation of growth in the crop sector and emerging regional
patterns of growth and diversification.
Shiyani and Pandya (1998)21
measured the diversification of agriculture in
Gujarat. They concluded from the results presented in this study that there existed wide
spatiotemporal disparity in the acreage allocation under different crops. In general, the
farmers had shifted their cropping pattern from the subsistence crops to the commercial
crops. On an average, relatively higher growth rate of acreage under tur, castor, rapeseed-
mustard, sugarcane, maize and wheat were found in different agro-climatic sub-zones of
Gujarat, whereas negative compound growth rates of acreage under pearl millet, jowar
and cotton were noticed in most of the zones.
Srivastava (1998)22
examined the agricultural development in Bihar in the context
of performance of agriculture during the period 1970-71 to 1991-92; potential generated
and constraints inhabiting agricultural development and strategy for agricultural
development. He found that there was a decline in the net area sown during the latter
parts of his study.
Brothakur and Bhattacharyya (1999)23
used compound growth rates which
computed for area, production and productivity of rice based on the exponential function
for three periods [viz., pre-green revolution period (1951-52 to 1970-71), post-green
revolution period (1971-72 to 1993-94) and the total period (1951-52 to 1993-94)].
Although, the high yielding varieties were introduced in the State of Assam during 1965-66,
its impact was felt only after 1971-72. Hence, the period 1951-52 to 1970-71 was
considered as the pre-green revolution period.
21
Shiyani, R. L., and H. R. Pandya, (1998), “Diversification of Agriculture in Gujarat: A Spatio-Temporal
Analysis”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 53, No. 4, pp: 627-638. 22
Srivastava, G. C. (1998), “Sustainable Agricultural Development in Bihar: Potential and Constraints”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LV, No. 4, pp: 197-207. 23
Brothakur, S. and B. K. Bhattacharyya, (1999), “Trend Analysis of Area, Production and Productivity
of Rice in Assam: 1951-1993”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVI, No. 4, pp: 203-206.
39
Chugh and Satyapal (1999)24
evaluated that the data had been indexed on base
year (Triennium ending 1974-75). Use had been made of linear and exponential models
for the estimation of growth rates. Comparison had also been made on the growth rates of
production, between the States and within the period of his study.
Chattopadhyay and Das (2000)25
estimated of growth rate in West Bengal
agriculture. They found that the rainfall did not have any significant effect on agricultural
production and, the recent developments in West Bengal agriculture was lopsided. Only a
few crops had dominated the field of the farmers by elbowing out other crops, like high
protein pulses, wheat etc., and the locational base had also not been widened.
Dashora et al., (2000)26
enquired about growth in production of important pulse
crops in Rajasthan. They found that the output growth in aggregate pulse crops was
positive but non-significant in the overall period. The contribution of area in the
aggregate pulse crops output was 53 per cent while that of yield was 22 per cent.
Joshi et al., (2001)27
focused about the agricultural performance in semi-arid
tropics of India. This study concluded that the performance of superior crops, like rice
and wheat, was remarkable, while that of inferior crops, like pearlmillet and sorghum,
was quite dismal. Pearlmillet-sorghum, cotton-sorghum, and sorghum based cropping
systems proved to be the systems of low-income and higher risk in comparison to rice,
and rice-wheat based cropping systems.
Pillai (2001)28
highlighted paddy productivity growth in West Bengal and Orissa.
She found that input productivity had indeed played an important role in the growth
performance in the 1980s and early 1990s in this region. While growth in inputs and total
24
Chugh, K. and Satyapal, (1999), “Statistical Appraisal of the Progress of Production of Wheat”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVI, No. 7, pp: 403-406. 25
Chattopadhyay, Arup Kumar and Purnendu Sekhar Das, (2000), “Estimation of Growth Rate:
A Critical Analysis with Reference to West Bengal Agriculture”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 55, No. 2, pp: 116-133. 26
Dashora, Snajay Kumar, J. M. Dhaka and N. L. Agarwal, (2000), “Growth in Production of Important
Pulse Crops in Rajasthan”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVII, No.8, pp: 453-458. 27
Joshi, P. K., B. S. Chandel, S. M. Virmani and J. C. Katyal, (2001), “Agricultural Performance in
Semi-Arid Tropics of India”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 56, No. 1, pp: 71-87. 28
Pillai, Renuka, (2001), “An Analysis of Paddy Productivity Growth in West Bengal and Orissa”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 56, No. 4, pp: 613-629.
40
factor productivity had contributed significantly to the output growth in both the states,
the performance of West Bengal had been better than Orissa. This improvement in input
productivity in West Bengal had been brought about both by efficiency and technology in
the presence of variations across seasons and seed varieties. Improvements in production
technology were apparent between 1986-87 and 1990-91. Although use of inputs and
technical efficiency increased over time, it had not been as dramatic as the improvement
in the state of production technology.
Singh and Chandra (2001)29
analyzed the growth trends in area, yield and production
of food grains in Uttar Pradesh. They found that the state of Uttar Pradesh had registered a
considerable change in agricultural development during different phases of the green
revolution. Introduction of High Yield Varieties of major crops in the State in the mid-seventies
paved the way to significant rise in foodgrains production. The growth rate in production was
low during the green-revolution period compared to post-green revolution era.
Singh and Chandra (2001)30
studied the agricultural productivity in Madhya
Pradesh. The authors found that the food grains production in the state increased from
5.896 to 17.41 million tones during 1951-52 to 1996-97 achieving an annual growth of
2.38 per cent. Although, the yield during this period increased from 461 to 1105 kg/ha
but this is still very low compared to all-India average of 1614 kg/ha. The low yield was
found due to lower use of agricultural inputs mainly fertilizer and irrigation water.
The analysis has revealed that fertilizer consumption in the state increased. Yearly growth of
fertilizer use in the state has been erratic and low compared to all-India growth trend.
Ramasamy and Selvaraj (2002)31
observed the reasons for the slow growth of
pulses, oilseeds and coarse cereals. The paper showed that the growth in pulses and
oilseeds production had not kept pace with the population growth, resulting in an overall
decline in per capita availability and generally higher prices for pulses and edible oils.
29
Singh, G. and H. Chandra, (2001), “Growth Trends in Area, Yield and Production of Foodgrains in
Uttar Pradesh”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVIII, No.9, pp: 423-426. 30
Singh Gyanendra and Hukum Chandra, (2000), “Growth Trends in Area and Productivity Affecting
Total Foodgrains Production in Madhya Pradesh”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVII, No.11,
pp: 597-602. 31
Ramasamy, C., and K. N. Selvaraj (2002), “Pulses, Oilseeds and Coarse Cereals: Why they are Slow
Growth Crops”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 57, No. 3, pp: 289-314.
41
Sarkar and Chakraborty (2002)32
examined the growth crisis of food grain
production in West Bengal. The study concluded that the growth in the food grain area,
production and yield trends in the State of West Bengal had decreased significantly
during Reform Period and Overall period. This was mainly due to the significant decrease
of the growth in rice production and yield trends and pulse area, production and yield
trends, during reform period compared to the Pre-reform period, although production and
yield growth of pulse crop were negative during Pre-reform period.
Singh and Kumar (2002)33
addressed to India had made impressive strides on the
agricultural front during the last three decades. Much of the credit for this success should
go to the several million small farming families that formed the backbone of Indian
agriculture and economy. Policy support, production strategies, public investment in
infrastructure, research and extension for crop, livestock and fisheries had significantly
helped to increase food production and its availability.
Bharti et al., (2003)34
reported the growth of pulses in India. They declared that
India was a major player in the world pulses market. It was not only the largest producer
of pulses, but also biggest consumer. Though there was greater importance of pulses for
Indian consumers, its performance had been dismal in the last five decades due to a
number of constraints like their cultivation on rainfed and marginal lands, high
susceptibility to insect, pests and diseases, weather aberrations, lack of genetic break
through, diversion of pulses area to other more remunerative crops, etc. there was a wide
gap between the demand for and supply of pulses in India.
Haridoss (2003)35
examined the inter-district variations in foodgrains production
in Tamil Nadu. He concluded that Thanjavur had no model district. In foodgrains
production, Pudukkotai alone had reached more than potential target apart from
32
Sarkar, Bebnarayan and Sanjukta Chakraborty, (2002), “Growth Crisis of Foodgrains in West Bengal”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVIII, No.11, pp: 511-516. 33
Singh R. B., and Praduman Kumar, (2002), “Acceleration of India‟s Agricultural Growth during the
Tenth Five Year Plan and Beyond”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIX, No. 5, pp: 259-266. 34
Bharti, D. K., L. S. Gangwar, Ashwani Kumar and Sandeep Kumar, (2003), “Analysis of Growth of
Pulses in India – Last Five Decades”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LX, No. 6, pp: 511-516. 35
Haridoss, R., (2003), “Inter-District Variations in Foodgrains Production in Tamil Nadu”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIX, No. 11, pp: 673-684.
42
Thanjavur district. In the case of area under foodgrains production, the district actually
realized than the computed targets were Cuddalore, Villuppuram, Thiuvannamalai, Salem
and Dharmapuri. It was also evident that the districts except Villuppuram, Coimbatore,
Erode, Tiruchirapalli, Thanjavur and Tirunelveli had not achieved potential target in the
utilization of fertilizer. Regarding the foodgrains productivity Thiruvarur, Nagapattinam
and Madurai districts had exceeded the targets. Cropping intensity was found to exceed
the target values in the districts of Salem, Dharmapuri and Thiruvarur. Therefore,
Thanjavur was a model district for other districts in the foodgrains production in Tamil
Nadu. The Kanniyakumari district was lagging behind in the pattern and measure of
development of foodgrains production in Tamil Nadu.
Shah (2003)36
investigated the slow growth foodgrain crops in Maharashtra.
The findings of the study showed tremendous increase in pulses output over the past
decade and a half in majority of the pulses growing regions of Maharashtra. Both yield
and area expansion had contributed to this increase in pulses output. However, coarse
cereals had shown very slow growth in their output, especially after the late eighties
period. Although there had been perceptible rise in yield of coarse cereals over time, this
yield expansion could not raise coarse cereal output as majority of the regions of
Maharashtra had shown a decline in area under these crops. In fact, the effect of area
reduction was so intense that it had outweighed the effect of yield expansion and
consequently there had been a very slow growth in output of coarse cereals.
Srivastava et al., (2003)37
made an attempt to know about the growth in area,
production and productivity of pulses in eastern Uttar Pradesh. They estimated the
Compound growth rates by fitting the exponential function to the district-wise data.
They found that arhar production declined at a compound rate of 0.3 per cent per annum
in the study area. This was mainly due to the negative growth in productivity.
36
Shah, Deepak, (2003), “Sustainability of Slow Growth Foodgrain Crops in Maharashtra: Issues and
Options”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LX, No. 7, pp: 457-466. 37
Srivastava, S. C., C. Sen and A. R. Reddy, (2003), “An Analysis of Growth of Pulses in Eastern Uttar
Pradesh”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIX, No. 12, pp: 771-775.
43
Kumar and Jain (2004)38
analyzed the growth pace in foodgrain production and
resource use for major grain producing States of India. More specifically the objectives of
the study were:
1. To study the growth behaviour in foodgrain production;
2. To study the growth behaviour in resource use in agriculture, and
3. To highlight the policy implications of the study.
Jahanmohan et al., (2005)39
investigated the growth performance of agriculture in
agro-climatic zones of Tamil Nadu. This was organized into five sections viz., section I
gave the introduction; section II depicted methodology including sources of data; section
III explicited the outcome of the study; section IV summarized the results with
conclusion and section V provided the references. Compound growth rates of area,
production and productivity of the crops were worked out by fitting exponential function
for all the periods separately.
Kumar et al., (2005)40
enquired into the production performance of maize crop in
northern India. The study was mainly based on secondary data pertaining to area,
production and yield of maize crops. These secondary data were collected from the
Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES), Government of India, various issues of
Economics Survey, and other published sources. This study pertained to the traditional
maize growing States of Punjab, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and
Orissa, which together account for about 60 per cent of the maize area.
Tuteja (2006)41
analyzed the growth performance in terms of area, production and
yield of five important pulse crops (gram, arhar, moong, urad and massar) along with
38
Kumar, Sandeep and K. K. Jain, (2004), “Growth Performance of Foodgrain Production and Resource
Use in India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXI, No. 6, pp: 409-423. 39
Jahanmohan, K. R., K. R. Sundaravaradarajan, L. P. Swaminathan, S. Padmarani and S. P. Saravanan,
(2005), “Growth Performance of Agriculture in Agro-Climatic Zones of Tamil Nadu”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LXI, No. 10, pp: 679-686. 40
Kumar, Ranjit, R. P. Singh, N. P. Singh and A. K. Vasisht, (2005), “Production Performance of Maize
Crop in Northern India: A District-wise Exploration”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXI, No.
11, pp: 765-771. 41
Tuteja, Usha, (2006), “Growth Performance and Acreage Response of Pulse Crops: A State-Level
Analysis”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 610, No. 2, pp: 218-237.
44
total pulses at the all India level. She concluded that the all India pulse production grew
at the dismal rate of 0.7 per cent per annum.
Alagh (2007)42
studied the macro story of faster growth of the agricultural sector
since the eighties. Also growth was sourced by yield in the eighties with area showing no
growth. This study concluded that the cropping patterns were different and different
areas, also because these factors were of a long term or permanent nature and there was a
kind of basic stability in cropping patterns. They changed because of economic reasons or
technological reasons-but the change was slower.
Tuteja (2007)43
discussed about the need for second green revolution in India.
The author concluded that India needed second green revolution to bring food security to
its billion plus population, to remove distress of farming community and to make its
agriculture globally competitive.
Lawwa and Kumar (2008)44
measured the growth performance of oilseeds by
calculating the compound growth rates, variability and decomposition analysis.
The requisite time series data on area, production and yield of oilseeds crops were
collected from Agricultural Department, directorate of economics and statistics Rajasthan
etc. For measuring the compound growth rates (CGR) in area, production and yield,
log-linear equation was used.
Dalwai (2012)45
analyzed the dynamics of agricultural growth in India. He concluded
that India today has 1.21 billion people and is expected to overtake china and become the
world‟s most populous country by 2025. This world put tremendous pressure on natural
resources and government would have a challenge in providing food, water, health, shelter,
sanitation and jobs to all. The challenge is to channelise the additional world force to
accelerate the growth of agriculture in the country, by madding it a modern enterprise with
appropriate infusion of capital, technology, skilled resources and relevant reforms.
42
Alagh, Munish, (2007), “Indian Agriculture – Growth and Change”, Agricultural Situation in India,
Vol. LXIV, No.5, pp: 55-57. 43
Tuteja, Usha, (2007), “Indian Agriculture: In Search of Second Green Revolution”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LXIV, No. 5, pp: 9-14. 44
Lawwa, Rupesh and Anil Kumar, (2008), “Growth Performance of Oilseeds in Rajasthan”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXV, No. 9, pp: 589-592. 45
Dalwai, Ashok, (2012), “Dynamics of Agricultural Growth in India”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 67, No. 1, pp: 27-45
45
Sharma (2012)46
observed the India‟s agricultural development under the new
economic regime. He found that more than half of the workforce is still engaged in
agriculture for their livelihoods and employment, agriculture continues to be a predominant
sector of the Indian economy, even though its share in national gross domestic product has
declined in recent year. Rapid growth of the non-agricultural sectors, particularly services, in
post-reforms period has failed to accelerate agricultural growth or poverty reduction. During
the last two decades Indian agriculture has been facing major challenges like deceleration in
growth rate, degradation in growth rate, degradation of natural resources, inter-sect oral,
inter-regional equity, declining input efficiency, etc.
3.3 Studies Focused on Growth and Instability in Agriculture
Panda (1992)47
dealt with growth and instability in the agriculture of Orissa.
He found that the analysis revealed positive association between higher growth in yield and
higher fluctuations in case of oilseeds. Only in the Eastern Ghats a little deviation was
noticed where higher yield growth in oilseeds associated with lower degree if instability.
Kaushik (1993)48
points out the growth and instability of oilseeds production.
He revealed that the fluctuation in yield was the major cause for the fluctuation in the
output and hence the fluctuations in yield had to be controlled to bring kin stability in the
output. This would mean concerted research efforts in developing new varieties of
oilseeds whose yield potential was stable across different agro-climatic regions. These
new varieties of seeds had not only to be high-yielding even under adverse weather
conditions but will also have to be disease and pest resistant. The prime concern of farm
scientists should be to increase the competitiveness and profitability of oilseeds with that
of other field crops.
46
Sharma, Vijay Paul, (2012), “India‟s Agricultural Development under the New Economic Regime:
Policy Perspective and Strategy for the 12th
Five Year Plan”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 67, No. 1, pp: 46-77. 47
Panda, R. K. (1992), “Growth and Instability in the Agriculture of Orissa – An Inter-Regional
Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLVI, No.12, pp: 905-908. 48
Kaushik, Krishan Kanta, (1993), “Growth and Instability of Oilseeds Production”, Indian Journal of
Agricultural Economics, Vol. 48, No. 3, pp: 334-338.
46
Tripathy and Gowda (1993)49
observed that growth, instability and area response
of groundnut in Orissa. They identified that area was the dominant source of growth of
output during the post-green revolution period. The per hectare yield of groundnut was
almost stagnant in the state. Efforts should be directed to increase productivity through
development of suitable varieties for different agro-climatic zones by applying
recommended fertilizer and pesticides and bringing more area under irrigation during rabi
season. The results of the empirical findings of the study emphasis yield stabilizing
policies in Central, Eastern Ghat and Northern zones of the state. Concerted efforts
should be directed towards strengthening research and extension system and increasing
the irrigation facilities in the state to stabilize the productivity of groundnut.
Jha (1994)50
found that instability in gross return and yield largely declined over
yeas. The decline in yield instability in crop viz., paddy and wheat was brought about
with increased area under irrigation over years. Nevertheless, Government‟s consistent
price policy also helped in reduction of instability in farm harvest prices. Thus, it can be
inferred that with new technology, instability in agricultural income reduced with
adequate irrigation facilities and consistent price policy. However, the second hypothesis
of high instability in agriculture accompanied with high growth rate was established.
Singh and Mathur (1994)51
analyzed the growth and instability in the production
and price of potato in India. They found that the production of potato increased rapidly
mainly due to the significant high growth of area in the major growing states. Yield also
showed a rising trend but its growth was low in some of the states. Hence, there was a
need to raise the yield by the use of improved seeds and package of practices as
recommended by the extension organizations of the regions. For storing a semi-
perishable commodity like potato, cold storage capacity, particularly on the public and
cooperative sectors, should be expanded by the Government.
49
Tripathy, S. and M. V. Srinivasa Gowda (1993), “An Analysis of Growth, Instability and Area
Response of Groundnut in Orissa”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 48, No. 3,
pp: 345-350. 50
Jha, Prajesh Kumar, (1994), “Growth and Instability in Agriculture Associated with New Agricultural
Technology – District Level Evidence”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLIX, No.7, pp: 517-520. 51
Singh, Chhotan and V.C. Mathur, (1994), “Growth and Instability in the Production and Price of
Potato in India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLIX, No.6, pp: 429-433.
47
Ali and Singh (1995)52
conducted a study on growth rates and variablities in area,
production and productivity of wheat crop in Chhattisgarh Region and its constituent
districts as well as the State of Madhya Pradesh as a whole using time-series data from
1970-71 to 1989-90. For the purpose of analysis, standard statistical techniques of
coefficient of variation and linear regression models were employed. Their analysis
reveals greater variability in area, production and productivity of wheat.
Jain et al., (1996)53
made an assessment of instability of oilseed production in
Bundelkhand agro-climatic zone of Madhya Pradesh. They concluded that the
contribution of area to production was more evident rather than the yield. Moreover, their
analysis revealed that mere extension of area under oilseed crops will not solve the problem
of increasing the production, but adequate attention had to be paid to increase the
productivity of the oilseed crops. Further, in view of major contribution of soyabean in Guna
and groundnut in Shivpuri districts towards total oilseeds of the zone, immediate necessary
measures were needed to increase the productivity levels of the crops in the districts.
Vani and Vyasulu (1996)54
analyzed the growth, variability and instability of
three cereal crops, viz., rice, ragi and jowar, Karnataka with reference to the following
questions: What had been the performance of different districts with respect to area,
production and yields of these three crops? Had the trend in their production decelerated
in 1980s? Had the green revolution brought variability and instability in their yields?
Barmon (1997)55
tried to find the production behaviour of pulses in Assam. He found
that the State of Assam is endowed with fertile soil, abundant rainfall and favourable
climate and as a result varieties of crops are grown in the State. But the production of
52
Ali, M. A., and A. K. Singh, (1995), “Growth and Fluctuations in Area, Production and Productivity of
Wheat in Chhattisgarh Region of Madhya Pradesh”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LII, No.9,
pp: 609-614. 53
Jain, R. K., J. S Raghu, L. N. Yadav, R. S. Raghuwanshi and R. S. Ghuraiya, (1996), “Instability of
Oilseed Production in Bundelkhand Agro-Climatic Zone of Madhya Pradesh – An Economic
Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LII, No.10, pp: 673-677. 54
Vani, B. P and Vinod Vyasulu, (1996), “Growth, Variability and Instability of Three Major Cereal
Crops in Karnataka: A District Level Analysis from 1955-56 to 1989-90”, Economic and Political
Weekly, Vol. 31, No. 26, pp: A74-A83. 55
Kandarpa Kumar Barmon, (1997), “The Production Behaviour of Pulses in Assam: Its Growth and
Instability”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIII, No. 10, pp: 697-701.
48
pulses in Assam has not been satisfactory. Against the total foodgrains production of
33.80 lakh tones in 1991-92, pulses accounted for only 3.54 lakh tones, which show that
the contribution of pulses in the total foodgrains production is quite insignificant.
Reddy (1997)56
estimated the inter-regional and temporal variations of costs,
productivity of growth of paddy in Andhra Pradesh. He analyzed the economics of paddy
cultivation in the 1980s in Andhra Pradesh, which revealed the following significant
findings: the relatively lower prices of modern inputs, viz., fertilizers and tractors in
relation to those of traditional inputs, namely manures and bullock labour, which were
partly due to subsidies given to modern inputs had enabled the farmers to substitute
modern inputs for traditional inputs and thereby to obtain higher yields at lower costs.
Sardana et al., (1997)57
enquired into the agricultural performance of different
districts (regions) of Haryana during the green revolution and post-green revolution
periods, its growth and variability and the important factors determining its performance.
This study concluded that there had been reduction in disparities among districts of
Haryana with regard to agricultural performance (value of agricultural produce per
hectare) during the last 25 years. The potential for growth in agricultural performance
with the existing technology lied in the backward districts.
Singh et al., (1997)58
tried to examine temporal and spatial performance of
important foodgrain and non-foodgrain crops in terms of area, production and yield and
the factors responsible for determining yield and acreage of important foodgrain crops
across the states and the country.
56
Reddy, P. Prudhvikar, (1997), “An Analysis of Inter-Regional and Temporal Variations of Costs,
Productivity and sources of Growth of Paddy in Andhra Pradesh”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp: 406-416. 57
Sardana, Praveen K., Veena Manocha and A. C. Gangwar, (1997), “Growth and Variations in
Agricultural Performance in Haryana”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3,
pp: 387-393. 58
Singh, I. J., K. N. Rai and J. C. Karwasra, (1997), “Regional Variations in Agricultural Performance in
India”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 52, No. 3, pp: 353-372.
49
Shukla (1998)59
addressed the growth and instability of pulses production. It was
an inter-state analysis. He concluded that area and production of tur and other pulses was
increased marginally while area under gram was shrinking. However, the production of
gram was found constant because of slight increase in yield during last two decades.
The stagnation in yield of pulses was observed because of low input use and growing of
this crop under unirrigated conditions.
Radha and Prasad (1999)60
analyzed the variability and instability of area,
production and productivity of rice and maize in Northern Telangana Zone of Andhra
Pradesh. They found that in maize, the area was found to be decreased during ex-post
NARP over ex-ante, but the mean values of production and yield exhibited a positive
change. Though the coefficients of variation was found to be increasing in areas and
yield, the production variation decreased i.e., attaining stability of maize production was
observed during the second period.
Krishnamoorthy and Reddy (2002)61
examined the question of growth and instability
in exports and imports of India over a two-decade period ranging from 1980-81 to 2001-02.
Regression results relating to these two variables had been reported both in rupee and
dollar terms. They attempted a granger causality test between growth and instability of
exports and imports in India over a longer period namely 1949-50 to 2001-02. The results
however remained inconclusive.
Shiyani (2002)62
examined the growth and instability of inland fish production in
Gujarat. He used ratio percentage methods to estimate relative share of different species in total
production. In order to examine the period-wise trend of fish production linear and exponential
function was finally selected considering the higher value of coefficient of determination (R2).
59
Shukla, N. D. (1998), “Growth and Instability in Pulses Production – An Inter-State Analysis”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLV, No. 10, pp: 639-643. 60
Radha Y., and Y. Eswara Prasad (1999), “Variability and Instability Analysis of Area, Production and
Productivity of Rice and Maize in Northern Telangana Zone of Andhra Pradesh”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LV, No. 10, pp: 623-626. 61
Krishnamoorthy, D. and V. V. Subba Reddy, (2002), “Growth and Instability in India‟s Foreign Trade:
A Comparative Analysis of Pre and Post-Liberalization Periods”, Artha Vijnana, Vol. XLIV, No. 3-4,
pp: 349-366. 62
Shiyani, R. L., (2002), “Growth and Instability of Inland Fish Production in Gujarat – Spatio -
Temporal Analysis”, Artha Vijnana, Vol. XLIV, No. 2, pp: 189-198.
50
Singh and Srivastava (2003)63
addressed the growth and instability in sugarcane
production in Uttar Pradesh. This study made use of time-series data on area, production
and productivity of sugarcane for western, eastern and central (including Bundelkhand)
regions as well as for the state with reference to the period, 1980-81 to 1998-99 and was
based on the data available from secondary sources. Semi-log equations were fitted to estimate
compound growth rates in area, production and productivity of cane. Instability in area,
production and productivity was measured through coefficient of variation analysis using
de-trended data. The production instability was also decomposed to examine the magnitude of
various components of regional sugarcane production variability.
Job and Nandamohan (2004)64
estimated the rice production in Kerala. This analysis
was primarily based on secondary data. Time series data on area, production and
productivity were complied from the various issues of “Statistics for Planning” and
“Economic Review” published by the Bureau of Economics and Statistics, Government
of Kerala and Kerala State Planning Board, respectively. In this study an exponential
trend, which approximately beat uniform rate of growth, and log quadratic trend, which
was an extension of an exponential equation by adding a quadric term were used.
Kumar and Badal (2004)65
evaluated the State level time series data on area,
production and yield of various fruits and vegetables for the period 1991-92 to 1999-2000
were obtained from various issues of Horticulture Production Year Book, National
Horticulture Board, Ministry of Agriculture, GOI, New Delhi. Compound Growth Rate
of area and productivity was computed using this study.
Shaheen and Shiyani (2004)66
emphasized that growth and instability of Fruit
Crops in Jammu and Kashmir. The study was based on the secondary data collected from
63
Singh, Archana and R. S. L. Srivastava (2003), “Growth and Instability in Sugarcane Production in
Uttar Pradesh”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 58, No. 2, pp: 279-282. 64
Job, Elsamma and V. Nandamohan, (2004), “Rice Production in Kerala – Trend and Instability”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXI, No. 3, pp: 135-139. 65
Kumar, Pramod and P. S. Badal, (2004), “Growth and Instability of Horticulture Crops in North-
Eastern India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXI, No. 7, pp: 499-504. 66
Shaheen and Shiyani (2004), “Growth and Instability in Area, Production and Yield of Fruit Crops in
Jammu and Kashmir – A Disaggregate Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LX, No. 10,
pp: 657-663.
51
published sources. The district-wise time series data pertaining to area, production and
yield of fruit crops were scanned from Directorate of Horticulture, Srinagar, Government
of Jammu and Kashmir (J & K). The study also gives the instability index (I.I) given by
Cuddy Della Valle (1978) which corrected the coefficient of variation.
Lakshmanan et al., (2005)67
studied the growth and instability of pulse economy
in India. They concluded that area and production of Arhar and other pulses was
increased marginally while that of Gram was shrinking. However, the production of
Gram was found constant because of slight increase in productivity during the last two
decades. A stagnation in yield of pulses was observed because of low input use and
growing this crop under unirrigated conditions.
Kumar and Sharma (2006)68
evaluated government price policy in controlling
food price variability using monthly indices of wholesale prices of wheat, rice and
coarse-grains. Annual price analysis showed that inter-year variability in annual nominal
prices declined for both wheat and rice in the nineties as compared to eighties.
The variability declined for the real price of rice also but the real price of wheat and
nominal and real prices of coarse grains displayed increased variability during the 1990s
in comparison to 1980s analysis of monthly prices revealed that intra-year variability shot
up for wheat while it came down for rice during the nineties in comparison to eighties.
Sadeesh et al., (2006)69
focused the growth and instability of major oilseeds in
India. The study was based on the time-series data of area, production and yield of the
major oilseeds in India for the period of 1971-72 to 2002-03. The statistical information
pertaining to the period under study was gathered from www.indiastat.com. This study
covered the period from 1971-72 to 2002-03 including the implementation of Technology
Mission on Oilseeds in 1986. For analyzing the data, they used compound growth rates
and co-efficient of variation.
67
Lakshmanan, P., A. Pouchepparajou and R. Sendhil, (2005), “Growth and Instability: A Study of Pulse
Economy of India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No.2, pp: 101-114. 68
Kumar, Parmod and Anil Sharma, (2006), “Price Variability and Its Determinants: An Analysis of
Major Foodgrains in India”, Indian Economic Review, Vol. XXXXI, No. 2, pp: 149-172. 69
Sadeesh, J., A. Pouchepparadjou and K. Thimmappa, (2006), “Growth and Instability Analysis of
Major Oilseeds in India”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No. 3, pp: 179-189.
52
Swain and Bhakar (2006)70
analyzed the trends in the area, production and yield
of some common commercial crops, cereals and pulse crops growth in Rajasthan.
They also focused on the degree of fluctuations in the growth of area, production and
yield of commercial crops.
Swain (2007)71
studied the trends and variability in the growth of oilseeds
production in Rajasthan. The study concluded that production of most of the oilseeds
have increased mainly due to the area expansion. Thus he suggested that the level of
oilseeds production can be increased in future only by increasing the yield rather than the
area under oilseeds in Rajasthan. The study also concluded the existence of acutely high
degree of variability in the growth of area, production and yield of oilseeds in the state
which can be warranted through regular provision of irrigation facility, HYV seeds,
fertilizers and different other pre and post harvesting measures to the cultivators by the
Government under the kind patronage of technology mission on oilseeds (TMO).
Hasan et al., (2008)72
measured the change and instability in area, production, and
yield of two major cereal crops wheat and maize in Bangladesh based on secondary data
during 1980/81-2003/04 using different statistical techniques. They found that area and
production of wheat increased satisfactorily. But yield was not increased to meet the
demand of the country. In the case of maize, significant increment happened in yield
during the study period. Area and production of maize also increased to fulfill the
increasing demand of population. Presently production of maize increased more rapidly
than its area. They also found that the growth in area, production, and yield of wheat
slightly improved in period-II, whereas the growth rate in area, production, and yield of
maize improved rapidly. Though both of wheat and maize are unstable crops, maize
showed very instability in its area and production because of its increasing tendency in
the recent years.
70
Swain and Bhakar (2006), “Trends and Variability of Some Cereals, Pulses and Commercial Crops in
Rajasthan”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No. 6, pp: 377-385. 71
Swain, H., (2007), “Growth and Variability of Oilseeds Production in Rajasthan”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LXIV, No.8, pp: 367-375. 72
Hasan M. N., M. A. Monayem Miah, M. S. Islam,
Q. M. Alam
and M. I. Hossain, (2008), “Change and
Instability in Area and Production of Wheat and Maize in Bangladesh”, Bangladesh Journal of
Agricultural Research, Vol. 33, No. 3, pp : 409-417, September 2008.
53
Jhagrawat and Varghese (2008)73
enquired into agricultural production growth
and instability during new economic regime in Rajasthan. This study concluded that the
crops maize, barley, arhar, groundnut, rapeseed and mustard, mango, papaya and guava
were found to have positive growth in production due to positive growth in yield in
Rajasthan during new economic regime. The crops wheat, maize, bajra, jowar, barley,
moth, groundnut, rapeseed and mustard, corriander, mango, papaya and guava were
found to have positive growth in yield with positive yield effect in the increased
production of these crops.
Roy (2008)74
examined state wise growth rates and fluctuations in terms of total
agricultural production on India during 1970-1971 to 2000-2001. the broad findings of
this study included (1) a tendency towards deceleration in the growth of total agricultural
production in India in recent years; (2) tolerable impact of green revolution on
crop-output fluctuation; (3) absence of definite pattern with regard to the association
between growth and fluctuation, and; (4) the major driving force behind the output
growth and fluctuation in productivity hence the technological improvement.
Chand and Raju (2009)75
discussed about the instability in Indian agriculture
during different phases of technology and policy. They found that when a longer period
was taken into consideration, which witnessed spread of improved technology to large
area, the inference on increase in instability due to adoption of new technology gets
totally refuted at country level.
3.4 Studies Focused on Decomposition of Sources of Instability
Hazell (1982)76
employed variance decomposition model to investigate the
sources of instability in cereal production in India. He reported that the variance of total
73
Jhagrawat, Seema and K. A. Varghese, (2008), “Assessment of Agriculture Production Growth and
Instability during New Economic Regime in Rajasthan”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXV,
No. 5, pp: 631-636. 74
Roy, Soma, (2008), “A Study of Growth and Fluctuation in Crop Output in India during Post Green
Revolution Period”, Artha Vijnana, Vol. L, No. 1, pp: 61-78. 75
Chand, Ramesh and S. S. Raju, (2009), “Instability in Indian Agriculture during Different Phases of
Technology and Policy”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 64, No. 2, pp: 187-207. 76
Hazell, P. B. R., (1982), “Instability in Indian Foodgrain Production”, Research Report 30,
International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, D. C., USA.
54
cereal production increased by 342 per cent between 1954-65 and 1967-78 and 82 per cent of
this variance was due to increase in co-variance of production between crops grown in
different states. He pointed out that as continued growth in food grain production is of
paramount importance to India, the most promising approach is to focus on maximizing
growth and to offset the resulting effects of increased production instability through
policies designed to stabilize consumption rather than production.
Jamal and Zaman (1992)77
analyzed the growth trend in agricultural value of
output. It tried to decompose the growth into several components which could build a
framework fork reflective speculation on some policy alternative. The main purpose of
the paper was to modify the existing methodology and to give a clear picture of all
components. This objective was achieved by dropping explicit „pooled-effect-term‟ from
the scheme through further decomposing the conventional „residual term‟ by introducing
some new indices of price, quantity and yield changes and by using logarithm to make
the analysis more convenient for interpretation.
Patel and Agarwal (1994)78
examined the extent of instability existing in the
production of groundnut in Gujarat. The study concluded that the production performance
of groundnut oilseed in the Gujarat state had not been an encouraging one. Growth rates
of its production in the state as well as in districts were negative during both the time
periods. This was mainly due to negative growth rate in productivity of the crop whereas
area under the crop has not shown any significant change overtime.
Nagaraj and Gowda (1997)79
made an attempt to know about the growth and
instability in the area, production and productivity of safflower in Karnataka. They used
district-wise time series data on area, production and yield of safflower and other related
agricultural statistics. They found that the production of safflower in the State was
destabilized due to interaction between changes in mean yield and area variances
implying that increase in mean yield results in greater variability of area.
77
Jamal, Haroon and Asad Zaman, (1992), “Decomposition of Growth Trend in Agriculture: Another
Approach”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 47, No. 4, pp: 644-652. 78
Patel, G. N. and N. L. Agarwal, (1994), “Growth and Instability in Production of Groundnut in
Saurashtra Region of Gujarat”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. XLIX, No.3, pp: 171-174. 79
Nagaraj, C. V. and M. V. Srinivasa Gowda, (1997), “Growth and Instability of Safflower Production in
Karnataka”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIV, No. 5, pp: 257-260.
55
Tripathy and Mishra (1997)80
found that growth and instability of Ragi production in
Orissa. They identified that during post-green revolution period, area was the dominant source
of output growth of ragi in the State as well as district level. As area expansion has limited
scope, effort to increase per hectare yield will be major thrust in increasing ragi production in
the State in future. The stagnation of per hectare yield of ragi calls for development of varieties
suitable to agro-climatic zone and application of higher dose of inputs.
Siju and Kombairaju (2001)81
estimated the rice production in Tamil Nadu.
They found that an increased trend of production and productivity had been observed.
In the pre-green revolution period, the growth in production was solely due to increase in
area under rice in the state. In the post-green revolution period area showed a decreased
trend even though the rate of decline was statistically not significant. In the post-green
revolution period productivity showed positive and significant growth. The decline in
area was more than compensated by increase in productivity and hence, production
registered positive growth during the post-green revolution period.
Kalamkar et al., (2002)82
dealt with coarse cereals and pulses production in India.
They concluded that the area under total coarse grains had significantly declined whereas
area under total pulses had been stagnanted over a period of time. The magnitude of
reduction in area under barley, small millets and jowar had been quite substantial where it
was only marginal in case of bajra and ragi. There had been marginal increase in
production and yield of coarse grains and pulses during period of time.
Salim and Ananthan (2003)83
made an attempt to find out the sources of growth
and variability in Indian marine products exports. They employed Hazell‟s
decomposition model and found that that the contribution of change in mean export
quantity was the highest among the other components of change. Their findings also
80
Tripathy, Sudhakar and S. N. Mishra, (1997), “Growth and Instability of Ragi Production in Orissa”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIV, No. 2, pp: 77-80. 81
Siju. T., and S. Kombairaju (2001), “Rice Production in Tamil Nadu: A Trend and Decomposition
Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVIII, No. 4, pp: 143-146. 82
Kalamkar, S. S., N. V. Shende and V. G. Atkare, (2002), “Coarse Cereals and Pulses Production in
India: Trends and Decomposition Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIX, No. 2,
pp: 581-587. 83
Salim, Shyam and P. S. Ananthan (2003), “Decomposition Analysis of Export of Indian Marine
Products”, The Bihar Journal of Agricultural Marketing, Vol. XI, No. 1&2, pp: 8-14.
56
indicated that, the revenue had been generated primarily from the changes ill the export
quantiti.es and nteraction between the export quantity and export value with no sizeable
contribution and realization from the unit value.
Alemu (2005)84
conducted a study to measure the causes of instability in cereal
production in Ethiopia. In this study the extent of instability in cereal production was
analyzed by computing the following statistics, namely average production, coefficient of
variation (CV), and F-statistics. The CVs were computed based on results on the fitted
trend lines of polynomials of different order. He found that production instability was
caused more by increased yield instability than instability in an area. Yield instability
could be the result of changes in technology, changes in policy and changes in weather
conditions. It was concluded by this study that instability regarding yield was
predominantly the result of weather variability.
Manjumdar and Basu (2005)85
conducted a study of growth composition of
foodgrains output in West Bengal. The main sources of data for this study were from the
various issues of Economic Review and Statistical Abstract published by Government of
West Bengal. The data used for this study were the state and district level output, yields,
area and harvest prices of the different foodgrains. Aus rice, aman rece, boro rice, wheat,
barley, gram and other pulses are considered in the foodgrain items. The average farm
harvest price of the three normal years (1987, 1988, 1989) had been taken as constant
price weight. As the harvest price for the other pulses were directly available, an estimate
on the basis of price ratio to similar crops had been made for the analysis.
Reddy (2005)86
examined growth and instability of chickpea production at state
and national level. The study pertained to major chickpea growing states and the country
as a whole. Time series data on chickpea production area and yield for these states for
33 years was collected from Directorate of Economics and Statistics of the Ministry of
84
Alemu, Z. G., (2005), “Causes of Instability in Cereal Production in Ethiopia”, Working Paper,
Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences at the University
of the Free State, Ethiopia. 85
Manjumdar and Basu (2005), “Growth Decomposition of Foodgrains Output in West Bengal:
A District Level Study”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 60, No. 2, pp: 220-233. 86
Reddy, A. Amarender, (2005), “Growth and Instability in Chickpea Production in India: A State Level
Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No. 9, pp: 621-628.
57
Agriculture, Government of India. For calculation of Compound Growth Rate (CGR),
Coppocks Instability Index (CII) and decomposition of change production and variability,
whole period was divided into two sub periods.
Meenakshi and Gayathri (2006)87
measured instability in cereals production.
They identified that change in the interaction between change in mean area and yield variance
had been an important contributor to the cereals production instability in Tamil Nadu state.
Therefore, efforts should be made to stabilize cereals production in the state.
Sharma et al., (2006)88
carried out a study on the extent and source of instability
in foodgrains production in India. They found that an increase in average production of
major food grain crops, namely, rice, maize, bajra and pulses and total food grains in the
nineties over eighties. The decomposition of change in average production further
revealed that increase in mean yield was the most important source of increase in the
average production of individual crops and total foodgrains. The notable exceptions were
jowar, small millets and ragi where increase in area was an important source of increase
in average production.
Mahir and Abdelaziz (2011)89 conducted a study to measure the extent of
instability and contribution of different components to change in mean production of the
main crops grown in the Gezira scheme. They used time series data covering the period
before the adoption of liberalization policy (1970/71 to 1991/92) and the period after the
adoption of liberalization policy (1992/93 to 2007/08). The main crops included in the
study were sorghum, wheat, cotton and groundnuts. They found that changes in mean
yield accounted for large shares of the change in mean production of wheat and sorghum
but change in mean area contributed largely in cotton and groundnuts. Furthermore, their
analysis showed that changes in the variance of yield accounted for large share of
87
Meenakshi, R. and J. Gayathri, (2006), “Instability in Cereals Production: An Analysis of Tamil
Nadu”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXIII, No. 7, pp: 431-434. 88
Sharma, H. R., Kamlesh Singh and Shanta Kumari, (2006), “Extent and Source of Instability in Food
Grains Production in India”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 61, No. 4, pp: 647-666. 89
Mahir, Mohamed Elamin Abd Ellatif and Hag Hamad Abdelaziz, (2011), “Analysis of Agricultural
Production Instability in the Gezira Scheme”, Journal of the Saudi Society of Agricultural Science,
Vol. 10,pp: 53–58.
58
changes in the variance of production for sorghum, while for wheat the large share was
due to variance of area. The changes in the residual term were important in explaining the
changes in the variance of production in the case of groundnuts.
3.5 Other Related Studies
Sharma (1992)90
examined the Indian cereals economy was net subsidized by
estimating Producer Subsidy Equivalent (PSE) of rice, wheat, sorghum and maize at
region-specific level. First he examined an overview of the government intervention in
cereals economy. Then he presented the methodology for estimating PSEs and the results
were presented. Policy implications followed finally.
Bhalla (1995)91
examined the implications of globalization of Indian agriculture,
keeping in view the dimensions of domestic demand and supply of foodgrains and some
other important agricultural commodities in India. Therefore globalization of Indian
agriculture offered both opportunities and challenges to the policy makers. There do exist
opportunities for deriving large benefits through massive increase in agricultural exports
specially exports of high value labour intensive allied agricultural products.
Arya and Maheshwari (1996)92
analyzed the agriculture production and
productivity trends in the region comprising Haryana, Rajasthan, Gujarat and the Union
territories of Daman & Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli. In view of the agricultural
problems being faced by these states and union territories they suggested a national
research agenda for these regions.
Gopalappa (1996)93
emphasized the crop diversification and income levels in
Karimnagar district of Andhra Pradesh. He found that there was a significant change in
90
Sharma, Pradeep K., (1992), “Producer Subsidies in Cereals Economy: Implications for Policy”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp: 343-347. 91
Bhalla, G. S., (1995), “Globalization and Agricultural Policy in India”, Indian Journal of
Agricultural Economics, Vol. 50, No. 1, pp: 7-25. 92
Arya, S. R. S., and R. C. Maheshwari, (1996), “Agricultural Productivity Trends and Research Agenda
for Region No. VI”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LII, No.12, pp: 793-799. 93
Gopalappa, D. V., (1996), “Crop Diversification and Income Levels in Karimnagar District of Andhra
Pradesh”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 3, pp: 381-387.
59
the income levels and standard of living of the marginal and small farmers due to
diversification of the farm activities. To achieve these, the farmers had to be supported by
means of financial assistance and extension service.
Kumar and Mathur (1996)94
examined the changes in the consumption pattern and
decomposed the changes in consumption due to price, income and non-price (structural
shifts) factors. They concluded increase in the demand for non-cereals and non-crop
commodities vis-à-vis cereals would provide incentives to the producers to diversify their
production. The extent of diversification due to structural changes in consumption would
be compounded by increased demand for the export market, especially for fruits,
vegetables, and marine products as a result of new economic policies and globalization.
Pandey and Sharma (1996)95
attempted to make the evaluation with a view to
examine the conflict, between crop diversification and self-sufficiency in foodgrains.
The timeframe for the analysis related to the post-green revolution period in which the
role of technological changes had been prominent and also holded the promise future.
Radhakrishna (1996)96
conducted a study of food trends, public distribution
system and food security concerns. He found that there was a significant change in the
foodgrain scenario from a scarcity to a surplus situation because of the acceleration in the
production of foodgrains in the 1980s. More significant, foodgrains stocks held by the
government have increased beyond the requirements. The predictions were that the
surplus situation would sustain, that agriculture would be diversified and that the exports
of rice, wheat and agro-products would increase.
Satyasai and Viswanathan (1996)97
explained the diversification of Indian
agriculture and food security. The study suggested that Indian agriculture had witnessed
94
Kumar, Praduman and V. C. Mathur, (1996), “Structural Changes in the Demand for Food in India”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp: 664-673. 95
Pandey, V. K. and K. C. Sharma, (1996), “Crop Diversification and Self-Sufficiency in Foodgrains”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp: 644-651. 96
Radhakrishna, R., (1996), “Food Trends, Public Distribution System and Food Security Concerns”,
Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 1&2, pp: 168-182. 97
Satyasai, K. J. S. and K. U. Viswanathan, (1996), “Diversification of Indian Agriculture and Food
Security”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp: 674-679.
60
diversification with impressive improvements in the shares of livestock and fishery
sectors in the total income from agriculture. Within the crop sector, the pattern of
diversification was characterized by growth in the share of non-foodgrain crops as a group.
Singh and Grewal (1996)98
highlighted the economic profile of rice production in India
with a focus on identifying the factors, having bearing differential levels of productivity.
The major factors associated with wider ranging level of productivity of rice across states were
assured irrigation and associated expenditure on fertilizers, manures, machinery. Besides, the
institutional problems of consolidation of holdings and tenurial arrangements.
Vyas (1996)99
discussed the concept of diversification which was relevant to the
Indian situation. Then, they looked into the rationale for diversification between
agriculture and non-farm sector as well as within agriculture and, examined the
determinants of such changes at the enterprise level. They concluded by referring to the
desired public policies to sub-serve the objectives of diversification.
Shah (1997)100
assessed the foodgrain production in India. He concluded that
India had witnessed an upward trend in the foodgrain output due to introduction of
seed-fertilizer-water technology in the post-green revolution period. However, this
technology revolution could gain momentum only in some select regions of the country
and that too; in terms of some cereal crops like rice and wheat. By and large, the impact of
new technology, popularly known as HYV, was tardy and dismal in the case of pulses and
coarse cereals. This gave reflection that the growth in the production of superior cereals had
been achieved at the cost of coarse cereals and pulses through reallocation of land.
Shah (1997)101
focused some of the more recent trends in production and
demonstrated that the yield based growth in food production had taken place in most
98
Singh, Balwinder and S. S. Grewal, (1996), “Economic Profile of Rice Production in India”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIII, No.1, pp: 11-15. 99
Vyas, V. S., (1996), “Diversification in Agriculture: Concept, Rationale and Approaches”, Indian
Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 51, No. 4, pp: 636-643. 100
Shah, Deepak, (1997), “Foodgrain Production in India: A Drive towards Self-Sufficiency”, Artha
Vijnana, Vol. 39, No. 2, pp: 219-239. 101
Shah, Amita (1997), “Food Security and Access to Natural Resources: A Review of Recent Trends”,
Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 32, No. 26, pp: A46-A54.
61
states including dry land regions; that the diversification was a large process that had
already set in before liberalization; and that the shift from oilseeds to food grain
production was essential for economic sustainability of dry land farming.
Nagaraj et al., (1998)102
focused to evaluate the resource use efficiency in
cultivation of various crops under different cropping systems. The results of the study
indicated that the regression coefficients for manures and fertilizers were negative in
paddy production. He also found that land and human labour were the two factors
significantly influenced the sunflower and jowar cultivation and in the case of groundnut
manures, fertilizers and human labour had a significant influence on the gross returns.
Ranjan and Singh (1998)103
dealt with the cropping pattern in North Bihar during
post-green revolution period. The analysis of crop-mix indicated cereal dominated cropping
pattern in north Bihar. Rice and wheat jointly constituted more than 60 per cent of gross
cropped area in the project area during period under study. There was no marked increase in
rice area but wheat area showed an increasing trend. Oilseeds are, no doubt, unimportant
crops with respect to area but gained in area during post-green revolution period.
Gangwar (1999)104
expressed his evidence which revealed that the crop
productivity could increased from 40 to 162 per cent by providing irrigation facilities
using Bamboo boring. As against traditionally monocropped systems, the crop sequence
like greengram-potato-rice in Assam, maize-fallow-potato in Ganga Diara of Bihar and
maize-potato-wheat in Saryu Diara of the Uttar Pradesh had been identified to be most
potential using improved crop varieties in Diara areas.
102
Nagaraj, T., H. S. S. Khan and N. N. Karnool, (1998), “Resource Use Efficiency in Various Crops
under Different Cropping Systems in Tungabhadra Command Area (Karnataka)”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LV, No. 3, pp: 135-139. 103
Ranjan, Kumar Priya and R. K. P. Singh, (1998), “Cropping Pattern in Backward Agriculture – A Case
of North Bihar”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIV, No. 2, pp: 69-72. 104
Gangwar, B., (1999), “Technical Advances for Increasing Crop Productivity in Diara Areas”,
Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LV, No. 10, pp: 615-620.
62
Poddar et al., (1999)105
estimated the cropping sequences which were of paramount
importance to the farmer from the point of view of his farm incomes. Farmer selected
crop mix based on the net returns from different cropping sequences over a period of
time. But at times net returns serve as poor indicators for selecting a sustainable
sequence. To overcome this lacuna, the sustainable value index, index of variability and
benefit cost ratios were worked out to find out the profitable cropping sequences.
Ram (1999)106
pointed out the cropping pattern diversification in Orissa. He discussed
on the trend of diversification of cropping pattern in Orissa from 1980-81 to 1993-94
revealed an overall departure from cereals towards oilseeds, pulses and vegetables.
Although, area under winter and autumn rice during kharif and summer rice during rabi
had increased, the rate of increase was significant for the latter only.
Badal and Singh (2000)107
reviewed the resource productivity and allocative
efficiency in Maize production in Bihar. They concluded that resource use efficiency for
different inputs varied widely across the crops and there was scope to reallocate the resources
in order to achieve optimal allocation of inputs. High yielding varieties (HYVs) of rabi maize
offered a greater scope for input-use for an enhanced productivity compared to any other crop
of the season. Human labour which was available in abundance could be increased on HYVs
maize farms in both rabi and kharif as well as on wheat farms.
Basavaraja (2000)108
conducted a study in the northern dry zone of Karnataka,
was an attempt to estimate the yield gaps (difference between the potential and actual
yield) in crop production and identify the factors responsible for such gaps. In general,
the difference between the potential farm yield and actual yield (Gap-II) was larger than
the difference between the potential yield and potential farm yield (Gap-I) and gaps
varied from crop to crop. The yield gaps were attributable to the inability of the farmers
105
Poddar, Rajendra, Venkataramanappa, R. A. Shetty and H. Basavaraja, (1999), “Economic Evaluation
of Cropping Sequences under Tungabhadra Project Command Area in Northern Dry Zone of
Karnataka”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LV, No. 10, pp: 621-622. 106
Ram, Salik, (1999), “Cropping Pattern Diversification in Orissa”, Agricultural Situation in India,
Vol. LVI, No. 1, pp: 15-18. 107
Badal, P. S. and R. P. Singh (2000), “Resource Productivity and Allocative Efficiency in Maize
Production in Bihar”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVI, No. 10, pp: 593-596. 108
Basavaraja, H., (2000), “Crop Yield Potentials and Constraints in the Production of Major Crops in
Northern Dry Zone of Karnataka”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVI, No. 12, pp: 743-753.
63
to apply critical inputs to the recommended level. Major portion of yield gaps
and variation there-in were explained by the variation in the constraint variables included
in the model.
Kumar De (2000)109
points out agricultural diversification particularly the
changing cropping pattern had been contributing significantly to the rural development in
West Bengal, which was an important agricultural state of India over a long period of
time. The paper examined the spatio-temporal nature of crop diversification in the state in
terms of some crop diversification indices.
Venkatram and Subramanian (2000)110
assessed the supply of major food crops in
Southern districts of Tamil Nadu. The estimation on cropping pattern index showed a
change in cropping pattern. There was a gradual decline either in area under the food
crops (or) their share in gross cropped area.
Hazra (2001)111
tried to find the rice production scenario in India and central
intervention. He classified his study of rice development programmes and made strategies
to step-up rice productivity.
Sekhar (2002)112
examined the agriculture and rural development. In his study, he
discussed the context of deceleration in agricultural growth, rural employment and a
slowdown in the decline in rural poverty over the last decade, comprehensive policy
reforms were required to generate long-term sustainable growth in agriculture. This was
also crucial from the standpoint of overall economic growth and equity. The broad
reforms suggested above pertain to policies on subsidies, trade and land reforms.
109
Kumar De, Utpal, (2000), “Diversification of Crop in West Bengal: A Spatio – Temporal Analysis”,
Artha Vijnana, Vol. XLII, No. 2, pp: 170-182. 110
Venkatram, R., and P. Subramanian, (2000), “Supply Response of Major Food Crops in Southern
Districts of Tamil Nadu”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LVI, No. 12, pp: 759-763. 111
Hazra, C. R., (2001), “Rice Production Scenario in India and Central Intervention”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LVIII, No. 1, pp: 3-8. 112
Sekhar, C. S. C., (2002), “Agriculture and Rural Development: Need and Reforms”, Artha Vijnana,
Vol. XLIV, No. 1, pp: 47-61.
64
Shenoi (2002)113
points out the agricultural policy during the tenth plan. He concluded
that the satisfactory performance of the agricultural sector during the last ten years,
despite increased outlays, which had been wasted on subsidy oriented stem to blame, not
the India farmer. Our scientists and farmers were amongst the best in the world, but we
had given them a system which defeated them all. The Indian farmer did not seek out
hand-outs, but only a fair support system with reasonable supply of technology, inputs
and market incentives. What was needed was the shedding of the subsidy syndrome, the
promotion of liberal input and output markets, and dynamic extension and research
systems in the course of the Tenth Plan.
Gupta and Athavale (2003)114
evaluated thirteen States of the country were
covered in this study. It was proposed that in the State, sample districts/blocks should be
so selected so as to cover all the agro-climatic zones/regions. The district selected for
field work among the districts of respective zones was representing the highest area under
pulse crop. From each of the selected districts 5 blocks were selected and from each
block one village was selected. A sample of 10 pulse growers from each village was
randomly selected by adjusting the available size classes. In this way, 50 farmers from
each of the districts were selected for their study. The study was based on both primary as
well as secondary data. Primary data was collected from sample farmers, mandis and dal
processors (mill). The reference year of the study was agricultural year 1998-99.
Kalamkar (2003)115
measured the economics of pulse production in Maharashtra.
He observed that the problems of increasing production of pulses in the state were
confronted with various economic constraints in the form of low yield, income, rainfed
condition under high risk situation and low level of technology with poor management.
In order to increase the production of pulses, particularly yield per hectare, it would be
113
Shenoi, P. V., (2002), “Agricultural Policy during the Tenth Plan”, Agricultural Situation in India,
Vol. LIX, No. 5, pp: 217-222. 114
Gupta, S. K. and M. C. Athavale, (2003), “Pulses Production: Constraints and Strategies – A State-
wise Analysis”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LIX, No. 11, pp: 685-692. 115
Kalamkar, Shrikant S., (2003), “Economics of Pulses Production and Identification of Constraints in
Raising their Production in Maharashtra”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LX, No. 2, pp: 81-91.
65
essential to develop some new high yield varieties suitable to agro-climatic regions.
Efforts would also had to be made to improve the efficiency of the marketing so that
producer could get their due share in the prices paid by the ultimate consumer.
Bhushan (2005)116
applied the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach to
estimate the Malmquist productivity index for the wheat producing states in India. With
the DEA approach, the Malmquist index could be decomposed into technical change and
efficiency change. The technical change component captured shifts in the production
frontier, provided a measure of innovation.
Kaur and Sekhon (2005)117
enquired into input growth, total factor productivity in
Punjab agriculture. They identified that total factor productivity had shown dismal
performance in Punjab agriculture, since the eighties. It was negative in two districts
during the eighties and in six districts during the nineties. The found the output growth in
all the districts and both in 1980s and 1990s had been quite significantly due to
technological change had been adopted by the farmers but the contribution of technical
efficiency was much lower and even negative in five districts during the 1980s and as
many as 10 districts in the 1990s suggested that the resource adjustments required for the
adoption of technological changes had not been forthcoming.
Singh et al., (2005)118
pointed out the rice economy of India. They noted that
India‟s rice economy had undergone tremendous changes since the launch of green
revolution technology during the late 1960s. The profound impact had been aptly
witnessed in the rice whose production had shown spectacular increase and enabled the
country to move from chronic food shortage to an era of food surplus. Besides,
technology and increased use of inputs, government interventions and support in terms of
minimum guaranteed prices of output and large scale procurements from producers at
remunerative prices had played a key role in the growth of rice economy.
116
Bhushan, Surya, (2005), “Total Factor Productivity Growth of Wheat in India: A Malmquist
Approach”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 60, No. 1, pp: 32-47. 117
Kaur, Manjeet and M. K. Sekhon, (2005), “Input Growth, Total Factor Productivity and Its
Components in Punjab Agriculture: District-wise Analysis”, Indian Journal of Agricultural
Economics, Vol. 60, No. 3, pp: 473-481. 118
Singh, N. P., Ranjit Kumar, R. P. Singh and P. K. Jain, (2005), “Rice Economy in India: Development
and Trade Prospects”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No. 6, pp: 427-435.
66
Bathla (2006)119
noted that regional dimensions of inter-crop diversification in
India. The overall analysis carried out at the national and state levels reveals intercrop area
shifts in favour of high yielding crops viz. wheat, paddy, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane up to
the eighties and towards paddy, sugarcane, fruits-vegetables, fibres, plantations, condiments
and spices during the nineties and early 2000 while area under wheat and paddy (rice) had
expanded solely at the cost of low yield growth crops viz. Coarse cereals and pulses due to
price support and HYV programme, high value commercial crops had benefited both from
area shifts as well as fresh land brought under cultivation.
Lekshmi et al., (2006)120
dealt with the yield gap among rice growers in
Kancheepuram District of North Eastern Zone, with the aims to study the profile
characteristics of farmers cultivating rice in specific agro-climatic zones and assess the
yield gap prevailing in popular rice varieties. They also studied the factors influencing
yield gap as perceived by the farmers.
Bhende and Kalirajan (2007)121
estimated farm-specific technical efficiency for
rice, sorghum, groundnut and cotton using Stochastic Frontier Production Function
approach. Further, they attempted to identify the determinants of technical efficiency.
They had used the farm level cross section data collected by the University of
Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore under the scheme of cost of cultivation of crops.
The analysis of technical efficiency indicated that there was a considerable scope to
improve the productivity levels of both food as well as cash crops with the existing level
of input use and the available technology.
Marothia et al., (2007)122
analyzed the crop diversification in Chhattisgarh state.
This study clearly indicated that there was no evidence of crop diversification in the
119
Bathla, Seema, (2007), “Regional Dimensions of Inter Crop Diversification in India: Implications for
Production and Productivity Growth”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXIII, No. 9, pp: 511-530. 120
Lekshmi, P. S. Swathi, K. Chandrakandan and N. Balasubramani, (2006), “Yield Gap Analysis Among
Rice Growers in North Eastern Zone of Tamil Nadu”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXII, No.
11, pp: 729-733. 121
Bhende M. J. and K. P. Kalirajan, (2007), “Technical Efficiency of Major Food and Cash Crops in
Karnataka (India)”, Indian Journal of Agricultural Economics, Vol. 62, No. 2, pp: 176-189. 122
Marothia, Dinesh K, R. K. Singh and A. K. Koshta, (2007), “Crop Diversification: Post Reform
Lessons from Chhattisgarh”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXIV, No.6, pp: 215-226.
67
agro-climatic zones as well as in the state even after a massive emphasis placed on
agriculture diversification, particularly after the formation of the state.
Verma et al., (2007)123
made an attempt on production and consumption pattern of
major food items in North Eastern Region of India. They found that rural people had
started spending more on pulses, milk and milk products, edible oils, meat, egg, fish,
vegetables and fruits. With the increase in level of income the urban as well as rural
people had started expending more on superior food items. With the change in
consumption pattern per capita per month demand for cereals and cereal substitutes had
decreased and expected to decrease further in near future. So there was a great need to
develop the strategies for increased the production of superior items keeping in view the
globalization of agricultural trade.
Sekhon et al., (2008)124
conducted a study of long term demand for foodgrains in
Punjab. They examined the present production and consumption level of foodgrains.
They also made an attempt to calculate demand for major foodgrains i.e. rice and wheat,
up to the year 2030 under different scenarios of growth in income.
Tuteja (2008)125
addressed long run vision for food management in India.
The author noted that the recent worldwide gallop in food prices had refocused attention
on food management that had been relegated to the sidelines. India was also experiencing
around 12 per cent inflation which was hurting the poor. Prices of food items were
skyrocketing despite fall in per capita consumption in rural and urban areas between
1999-2000 and 2004-05. This was due to shrinkage in the supply of food items in the
market. But in the long run, it was a problem of population pressure, productivity and
food management. These factors could be handled by vision and commitment.
The forgoing chapter provides the review of studies related to growth and instability
in agriculture, which would be helpful to formulate objectives given in the next chapter.
123
Verma, M. R. K. K. Datta, Subhasis Mandal and A. K. Tripathi, (2007), “Production and Consumption
Pattern of Major Food Items in North Eastern Region of India”, Agricultural Situation in India,
Vol. LXIV, No.3, pp: 89-95. 124
Sekhon, M. K., P. S. Rangi and Tejinder Dhaliwal, (2008), “Long Term Demand for Foodgrains in
Punjab: Projections Upto 2030”, Agricultural Situation in India, Vol. LXV, No. 8, pp: 523-528. 125
Tuteja, Usha, (2008), “Needed Long Run Vision for Food Management in India”, Agricultural
Situation in India, Vol. LXV, No. 5, pp: 317-324.