revitalizing american competitiveness in solar technologies · revitalizing american...
TRANSCRIPT
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R. Ramesh, Former Director, SunShot
Deputy Director for Science and Technology
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Revitalizing American Competitiveness in Solar Technologies
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Lunar Landing: 1969
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“We choose to go to the moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard….Because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one which we intend to win…”
- President Kennedy
September 12, 1962
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“We’re telling America’s scientists and engineers that if they assemble teams of the best minds in their fields, and focus on the hardest problems in clean energy, we’ll fund the Apollo projects of our time.” - President Obama
2011 State of the Union
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So what is the SunShot Initiative?
5
SunShot Initiative SunShot Initiative
5 - 6¢/kwh without subsidy
A 75% cost reduction by the end of the decade
Pri
ce
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SunShot Program Structure
Photovoltaics (PV)
Concentrating Solar
Power (CSP)
DOE
SunShot
Soft BOS
Systems Integration
Distributed Generation
- on-site or near point of use -
Centralized Generation - large users or utilities -
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Technology Readiness Level 1
9
PV
C
SP
S
I T
M
BO
S
High Pen Solar Deployment, $24M, FY09-14
SEGIS-AC, $30M, FY11-13
Plug and Play $21M, FY12-16
Solar Forecasting, $15M, FY13-16
BOS-X, $30M, FY11-13
SolarABCs, $5M, FY08-12
RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT DEMONSTRATION DEPLOYMENT
HiBREDs, $20M, FY13 – FY15 CSP R&D, $39.7M, FY12-15
F-PACE, DOE/NSF, $35.8M, FY11-14, F-PACE II $15M FY13-16
BRIDGE, $2.6M, FY12
Next Generation PV, $24.5M, FY11-15
Incubator 1-7, $92M, FY07-12
Incubator 8, $12M, FY13-17
SUNPATH, $37M, FY11-13
Supply Chain, $20.3M, FY11-14 PVMI, $112.5M, FY11-16
Rooftop Solar Challenge I, $12.5M, FY11-13
SUNRISE, $10M, FY13-15 SunShot Prize, $10 M, FY12-16
Non-Hardware Balance of System, $13.6M, FY11-14
SEEDS, $9M, FY13-16
SunShot Projects FY08–16
F-PACE II, $12M, FY13-FY16
Distance Solar, $4M, FY13-FY16
PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY13-FY17
MURI, $10.5M, FY12-15
CSP Supply Chain, $22.9M, FY12-15
Rooftop Solar Challenge II, $12M, FY13-15
Solar(MAT) $15M, FY13-17
Baseload CSP Generation, $54.7M, FY10-14
CSP Storage, $27.9M, FY09-13
CSP ELEMENTS, $20M, FY13 – FY14
PREDICTS, $2.5M, FY13 – FY17
CSP Novel Concentrator, $20M, FY14 – FY17
CSP SunShot, $60M, FY12-16
GEARED, $12M, FY13-18
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Low Cost Power Electronics
Solar ADEPT (ARPA-E)
SEGIS-AC
SunShot Incubator
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
Inst
alled
Syst
em
Pri
ce (
$/W
DC)
8
SunShot Funding Philosophy : PV
System Price
2010
Power
Electronics
Cost Reductions
BOS
Hardware Soft BOS
Efficiency
Improvements
Module
Manufacturing
$0.30
$0.27
$2.04
$0.59
$1.02
$5.71/W
$1.50/W
SunShot
Target
$0.42
$0.46
$2.69
$2.15 $0.12 $0.19
$0.65
$0.54
Reducing BOS Hardware Costs
High Penetration PV
BOS-X (Extreme BOS)
SEGIS-AC
Reducing Soft Costs
Rooftop Solar Challenge
BOS – Software
Plug and Play
Instructor Training Network
Solar Forecasting
Incubator for Soft Costs
SunShot Prize: $2/W
more to come…
PV Made in the USA
PV Manufacturing Initiative
SUNPATH
PV Supply Chain
Regional Testing Centers
SunShot Incubator
Improving PV Efficiency
Next-Gen PV
F-PACE
BRIDGE
SunShot Incubator
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SunShot CSP Focus Areas & Targets
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energy.gov/sunshot energy.gov/sunshot
Soft costs reduction: 64% of cost of a
residential system
Grid integration with higher penetration of
solar and other renewables
CSP as an enabling technology for other
renewables, thanks to thermal storage:
Supercritical CO2 to advance CSP performance
As part of CEMI, capture a greater portion of
the global value add
60% progress towards 2020
objectives
More than 13 GW of Solar on the
nation’s grid, 4.75 GW added in
2013: 11x growth rate from 2009
Unprecedented job growth (143k
jobs, 20% growth year-over-year)
SunShot Incubator spurring small
business growth, private sector
investment: $18 in private
follow-on funding for every $1 of
DOE investment
MAJOR PROGRESS PRIORITY AREAS
2010 2020 2013
SunShot Initiative – Solar Grid Parity by 2020
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Its all about people…
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Concept Paper
Full Applications
Independent Merit Review
Rebuttal
Review Panel Meeting
In-Person Interviews
Selection and Award Negotiation
Project Monitoring
KEY : Reduce process time by ~50% !!
Active Program Management
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$
WattµManufacturing Cost
Efficiencyh µ JSC ×VOC ×FF
Barriers-based investments:
Cell and module efficiency
31%
18% 15% 13% 12% 10% 2%
43%
25% 20% 20% 17%
12% 8%
63%
29% 29% 29% 29%
20% 14%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
CPV (3J) c-Si mc-Si CIGS CdTe a-Si OPV
Effi
cie
ncy
Theoretical Maximum
Laboratory Record (cell)
Typical Production (Module)
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Goal:
Establish process to usher basic science
developed within BES/NSF into applied
technologies programs.
Sources of Basic Energy Research:
– Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and
Biosciences (CSGB - BES)
– Materials Science and Engineering
(MSE - BES)
– Scientific User Facilities (SUF - BES)
– Materials Research (DMR - NSF)
– Chemistry (CHE - NSF)
BRIDGE – Bridging Research Interactions through
Collaborative Development Grants in Energy
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PV Variability : A Fundamental Problem
–20 MW PV Plant in NV
Forecasting
Storage
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Grid Integration : Plug-and-Play Solar
Future (Smart) Home
• Smart outlet
• Smart circuit
• Smart breaker panel
• Smart appliances
• Home area network (HAN)
Future (Smart) Grid
• Distributed generation
• Two-way power flow
• Communication and
control
• Rich energy information
and transactions
• Microgrid
Future (Smart) City
• Integrated grid and city
planning
Utility Control Center
Vision : PV as an Appliance No permitting Easy installation Seamless grid integration
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From Science to Technology to Productization
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$-
$400
$800
$1,200
$1,600
$2,000
-12 0 12 24 36 48
Millio
ns
SunShot Incubator DOE funding as Catalyst for Private Investment
Source: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (2012) 21
Follow on Private Investment
$17.5M DOE
Investment
Months after Incubator Funding
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Cheaper Solar Trackers
One robot replaces 400 tracking motors
50% reduction in tracker cost
Robot manufactured exclusively in the USA
$1M in DOE funding 22
Solar powered by Robotics
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Manufacturing
“Abandoning today's ‘commodity’
manufacturing can lock you out of
tomorrow's emerging industry.”
- Andy Grove, co-founder, former CEO, Intel
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PV Manufacturing Initiative (PVMI)
Part I
Solving pre-competitive problems common across industry
(at pilot line manufacturing R&D)
Part II
Innovative domestic manufacturing processes at scale
Regional Test Centers
University and Industry Consortia
Cost sharing
Tools, materials, processes integration
Up to $50M over 2 years
Minimum 3 to 1 cost leveraging
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Background / Vision: – Accelerate adoption of renewable energy generation sources by helping U.S. PV manufacturers
overcome the commercialization “Valley of Death”
– Provide technical basis for bankability of PV systems
• Installation size: o Module-level testing: 10-50kW per site
o System-level testing: 50–300 kW per site
• Test in multiple climates, using a comprehensive validation approach to compare performance and
initial reliability against prediction
Locations:
PV Regional Test Centers
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“Even if you paid nothing for the hardware, you'd still
pay thousands of dollars to install a residential solar
power system.”
- Former Secretary Chu
Soft Cost : The Critical Issue
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Rooftop Solar Challenge
Permitting
Inspection
Interconnect Finance
Customer Acquisition
Soft Cost
SITN
Soft Cost Incubator
Soft BOS
Incubator 7+
Prize
SEEDS
Rooftop Solar Challenge II
USSD on Public Lands
Designation
LPDP GEARED
SUNRISE
Incubator 8+
FY 2010-12 FY 2012-13 FY 2013-14
SAC
Solar OPS (SAC-TO)
NA - SITN
• Reduce Soft Cost • Lower Barriers • Foster Maturity
BOS Multi-Year Approach
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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Round 7
SunShot Incubator
Round 5
SunShot Incubator
Round 4
PV Incubator
Sunshot Incubator : Changing the Game
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Round 2
PV Incubator
Round 1
PV Incubator
Round 3
PV / Pre-Incubator
Round 6
SunShot Incubator
for Soft Costs
Round 8
SunShot Incubator
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We remain the most innovative country in the world ... but “Invented in America” is not
good enough to guarantee our prosperity.
America has the opportunity to lead the world
in clean energy technologies and provide a
foundation for our future prosperity.
“Invented in America, Made in America, Sold World-wide”