revival of the japanese economy and the u.s.-japan ... · (1) local production in the u.s. since...
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Revival of the Japanese Economy and the U.S.-Japan Relationship
June 29, 2015
Sadayuki Sakakibara
Chairman, Keidanren
1
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History of Toray U.S. Operation
2
2006 TMUS
1965 TAM
2002 TFA
1997 CFA
1992 TCA
1989 TREC
1988 TIAM
1985 TPA
Zoltek, St Louis, MO ★
2014 Zoltek
Dr. Sadayuki SakakibaraFormer CEO and ChairmanToray Industries, Inc.
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Dr. SakakibaraWashington D.C.Annapolis, MDRichmond, VA Columbia, Charleston, SC
3
Keidanren Mission to the United States (June 28 - July 3)
A Group of More than 100 CEOs and Experts of Major Japanese
Firms Divided into Three Groups, Visit Total of Ten States.
Mr. IwasaAustin, Houston, San Antonio, TXNashville, TNLos Angeles, San Francisco, CA
Sakakibara's GroupIwasa's GroupIshihara's Group
A
BC
Mr. IshiharaChicago, ILIndianapolis, INColumbus, OHTrenton, NJ
A
AA
A
C C CC
B
B
BCA
TX
TN
IL INOH
SC
VA
NJ
DC
MD
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Source: System of National Accounts (Cabinet Office, Government of Japan)
Japan's Economy No Growth in the Past 20 Years
Transition of Japan's Nominal GDP
(Fiscal year)
(trillion yen)
4
491496
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0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0.8
1.3
1.8
2.3
2.8
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
5.3
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: IMF “World Economic Outlook”
US, China and Republic of Korea Growing Steadily in the Past 20 Years
Japan Totally Left Behind in the Global Economic Growth
Growth of Nominal GDP by Country
5(Year)
(1993 = 1) (1993 = 1)
Republic of Korea5 times
China (right axis)17 times
US3 times
Japan<1 time
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What is Abenomics?
1st Arrow
2nd Arrow 3rd Arrow
Bold Monetary
Policy
Flexible Fiscal Policy
Growth Strategy encouraging
Private Investment 6
Economic Policies Advocated by Prime Minister Abe since the Inauguration of his Administration in December 2012
Aimed at Pulling Out of Deflation and Revitalizing the Japanese Economy
Mid- to Long-Term Goal:Real GDP Growth Rate 2%+Nominal GDP Growth Rate 3%+
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Japan Revitalization Strategy (June 2013)
7
1. Industrial Revitalization Plan
Employment SystemHuman ResourcesInnovationIT
2. Strategic Market Creation PlanHealthcareEnergyLocal Communities Infrastructure
3. Strategy of Global OutreachFTAsExporting InfrastructureInward Direct Investment
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Japan Revitalization Strategy (Revised, June 2014)
8
1. Restoring Earning PowerCutting Corporate TaxCorporate Governance
2. Cultivating Human Resources
Labor Law ReformWomen's ParticipationForeign Labor Utilization
3. Nurturing New Growth EnginesAgricultural ReformMedicare Reform
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Japan Revitalization Strategy (Revised, June 2015)
9
1. Productivity RevolutionBig Data, IoT, Artificial IntelligenceUniversity ReformElectronic AdministrationPromoting Ventures
2. Local Abenomics
Supporting SMEsProductivity in the Service IndustryICT in Healthcare
3. Reform 2020Promoting Large-Scale Projects towards Year 2020
4. INVEST JAPAN InitiativeFive Promises for Attracting Foreign Businesses to Japan
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-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
12/2
Q
12/3
Q
12/4
Q
13/1
Q
13/2
Q
13/3
Q
13/4
Q
14/1
Q
14/2
Q
14/3
Q
14/4
Q
15/1
Q
15/2
Q
15/3
Q
15/4
Q
16/1
Q
2012FY 2013FY 2014FY 2015FY
Real GDP (annual rate)
Predicted values
15/1Q+3.9%
Source: Cabinet Office, Government of Japan (Predicted values from the ESP Forecast Survey)
(%)Transition of real GDP
Forecast (+1.7%~+2.0%)
Positive Effects of Abenomics
Dec. 2012The start of Abenomics
Apr. 2014The consumption
tax increase
Japan's Economy Slumped in the FH of 2014, affected by Consumption Tax IncreaseStarted Improving Soon Afterwards. The End of Deflation Now in Sight
10
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Manufacturing
Non-manufacturing
All industries
65.9 trillion yen (estimate)(2014FY)
Source: Ministry of Finance “Corporate Enterprise Statistical Survey”
Positive Effects of Abenomics
(trillion yen)
(Fiscal year)
Dec. 2012The start of Abenomics
※The figure of 2014FY is estimated by the quarterly survey.
Record-High Profits Achieved by Many FirmsThe Sum of Ordinary Income of All Industries in 2014 IncreasedExpected to Exceed 65 trillion yen
Transition of Ordinary Income by Industry
11
$549 billion
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3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
7 7 7 7 7 7 7 1 4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Unemployment rate
Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications “Labor Force Survey”
(%)
Positive Effects of Abenomics
Dec. 2012The start of Abenomics
The Employment Situation is StrongUnemployment Rate Lowered to 3.3% in April 2015Recovering to the Levels Before Lehman Brothers
12
3.3%(Apr. 2015)
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
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6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2220
07
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Source: Materials from the Japan National Tourist Organization
Positive Effects of Abenomics
Dec. 2012The start of Abenomics
The Number of Foreign Tourists Visiting Japan Increased by Five millionin 2 years from 2012, and Exceeded 13 million in 2014
13
8 million(2012)
10 million(2013)
13 million(2014)
20 million(2020)
Number of foreign tourists visiting Japan(million people)
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KEIDANREN VISION
14
Title:Toward the Creation of a More
Affluent and Vibrant Japan- Innovation & Globalization -
Goal:A Nation where the Younger Generation Takes Pride Exercises their Can-do Spirit and Carves out a Future full of Hope
A Nation Worthy of Trust and Respect by the World
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Important Keys to “Japan's revitalization” are“Innovation” and “Globalization”
1. Innovation(1) Technological Innovation(2) Innovation of Society and Social Systems
2. Globalization(1) Building New Trade Strategy(2) Promoting Overseas Expansion of Infrastructure System
Innovation and Globalization
15
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Nurturing New Core Industries that can lead the New Era6 Areas have Great Potential for becoming New Core Industries
Create added value of 100 trillion yen by 2030 through these new industries ($830B)
Developing New Core Industries as Growth Engines in the New Era
16
6 Areas
Internet of Things
Artificial Intelligence / Robotics
Smart Cities
Biotechnology
Development of Marine Resources
Aerospace
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Promote the Participation of Women in the Workforce
17
Empowerment of Women is Key Growth Strategy for JapanIt is Also a Management Strategy for Companies to Survive Intensive Global Competition
World Assembly for Women in Tokyo: WAW! Tokyo 2014September 12, 2014 at Keidanren
Total number of participants: 1,200Main Guests:Prime Minister Shinzo AbeFirst Lady Akie AbeU.S. Ambassador Caroline KennedyIMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde
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Women's Empowerment
18
KEIDANREN Voluntary Action Plans on the Promotion of Women
To Display Clear Commitment of Top Managements, Keidanren Requests About 1,300 Member Companies to Formulate Action Plans
Set Target Goals for the Promotion of WomenEstablish Specific Action Plans to Achieve the Goals
As of May 2015, 440 Companies Published their own Action Plans on Keidanren's Website
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Important Keys to “Japan's revitalization” are“Innovation” and “Globalization”
1. Innovation(1) Technological innovation(2) Innovation of Society and social systems
2. Globalization(1) Building New Trade Strategy(2) Promoting Overseas Expansion of Infrastructure System
Innovation and Globalization
19
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2013 2014 2015 2020 2030
TPP
RCEP(ASEAN+6)
Japan-EU EPA
TTIP
Plurilateral agreements
(ITAs, environmental goods, TiSAs,
etc.)
Achieve FTAAP by 2020
Under Negotiation
Under Negotiation
Under Negotiation
Under Negotiation
Integrate into WTO
Agreement by 2030
Under Negotiation
Launch of New WTO
Round
Trade Strategy Process Leading to WTO Reform by 2030
20
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Early and Successful Conclusion of TPP Negotiations
"We can spread our shared values around the world and have them take root: the rule of law, democracy, and freedom.
That is exactly what the TPP is all about."Address by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to a Joint Meeting of the U.S. Congress
"Toward an Alliance of Hope" (April 29, 2015)(Source: Cabinet Public Relations Office) 21
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Current Situation of Japan-U.S. Economic Relations
U.S., 30.5%
Netherland, 13.6%France, 13.1%Singapore, 7.9%
UK, 7.4%
Cayman Islands, 5.1%
Switzerland, 4.9%Others, 17.4%
FDI in Japan in 2014 (stock, by country)
Source: Bank of Japan
The U.S. is the No.1 Direct Investor in Japan
22
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
107 91 105 111 118 113 115
167
119148 157
176 171 168
Total Volume of Japan-U.S. Trade
From US to Japan From Japan to US
Current Situation of Japan-U.S. Economic Relations
Source: US Department of Commerce
The U.S. is the Second Largest Trade Partner for Japan
(Billions of Dollars) $280B
23
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
$16B $17B
$22B
$44B
$34B
Japan's Direct Investment in the U.S.
Source: US Department of Commerce24
Billions of US Dollars
Japan's FDI in the U.S. is Generally Expanding, Ranked No.1 in 2013 and No.2 in 2014
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No. of Employees : 900,000
Output : $ 330B
Japanese-Affiliated Companies in the US
Output & Job Creation Effect of Japanese Companies
25
Direct+
Indirect
Direct
Economic Effect (Output) : $ 580B
Job Creation Effect: 1,700,000
About 3,000 Japanese Firms Operate in the U.S.
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Comparison with Other Countries' Economy
Source: IMF "World Economic Outlook" (April 2015)
Output of Japanese Companies in the U.S. Accounts for About $ 580BSurpassing the GDP of Sweden, Poland, Argentina, and so on
26
Countries and Regions (Billions of Dollars)
Indonesia 890
Netherlands 870
Turkey 810
Saudi Arabia 750
Switzerland 710
Output of Japanese Companies in the U.S. 580Nigeria 570Sweden 570Poland 550Argentina 540Belgium 540Taiwan 530Norway 500
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Contribution to the Expansion of U.S. Exports
(billions of US dollars)
Source: JETRO (Prepared from US Department of Commerce)
Japanese Companies in the U.S. Contributing to the Expansion of U.S. ExportJapan is No.1, Accounting for 4.4% of Total Exports of U.S.
27
Exports from foreign affiliates in the U.S. Share of Total Exports
1 Japan 67.6 4.4%2 UK 51.8 3.4%
3 Germany 45.5 2.9%
4 Italy 24.6 1.6%
5 France 22.7 1.5%
6 Canada 12.5 0.8%
7 Korea 10.0 0.6%
8 Australia 2.0 0.1%
9 Singapore 1.3 0.1%
10 China 1.1 0.1%
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Japanese Automakers' Activities in the U.S.
Source: Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association All data is for 2013. 28
Japanese Automakers have been
engaged in
(1) Local Production in the U.S. since
the 1980s
(2) 70% of the Vehicles Sold in the U.S.
Built in North America
Japanese Automakers contribute to
(1) Quality Job Creation
(2) Enhanced Productivity in the U.S.
(3) Increased Competitiveness of the
U.S. auto industry
3.63 million Vehicles Produced
$ 41B Invested Cumulatively
400,000 U.S. Workers Employed Directly
1.36 million Workers Including Indirect Employment
$ 57B of U.S.-made Auto Parts Purchased
390,000 Vehicles Exported from U.S.20.2% of Total U.S. Vehicle Exports
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Japan-U.S. Trade Negotiations
29
1972 Japan-U.S. Textile Negotiations
1981 Voluntary Export Restrictions on Japanese CarsEstablished an Export Limit of Approximately 1.68 million Vehicles
1986 Japan-U.S. Semiconductor Negotiations
1988 Talks on Liberalization of Imports of American Agricultural Products
1989 First SII (Structural Impediments Initiative) Meeting
1992 Action Plan for Expansion of Japan's Imports of U.S.-made Auto Parts
1994-96 Conclusion of Japan-U.S. Framework Talks(Insurance Sector, Government Procurement, Auto and Auto Parts etc)
2001-09 Talks on Japan-US Economic Partnership for Growth
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From Trade Friction to "PARTNERSHIP" for Mutual Prosperity
US-Japan Textile Negotiations
Japan's Voluntary Export Restraint of Steel
Japan's Voluntary Export Restraint of Autos
SII: Structural Impediment Initiatives
More Strengthened Partnershipthrough TPP
Towards the Future
60's
70's
80's
90's
(Source: UPI=Kyodo)
(Source: Cabinet Public Relations Office)30
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Toray and America, Especially with Boeing
Boeing and Toray Concluded the Comprehensive Agreement to Supply Carbon Fiber for Boeing 787 Dreamliner in April, 2006.Toray Became the Dominant Supplier of Carbon Fiber to Boeing for a Period of 16 Years.Realization of My Dream 40 Years Later Copyright Boeing Co.
31
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Toward Further Strengthening Japan-U.S. Relationship
"The relationship between our two countries stands as a model of the power of reconciliation: former adversaries who have become steadfast allies and who work together to advance common interests and universal values in Asia and globally."
"U.S.-Japan Joint Vision Statement" April 28, 2015
(Source: Cabinet Public Relations Office) 32
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Toward Further Strengthening Japan-U.S. Relationship
"The Finest Asset the U.S. Has to Give to the World was Hope, is Hope, will be, and mustAlways be Hope. Let us Call the U.S.-Japan Alliance, an Alliance of Hope. Let the Two of us, America and Japan, Join Our Hands Together and Do Our Best to Makethe World a Better, a Much Better Place to Live. Alliance of Hope.... Together, We Can Make a Difference." Address by Prime Minister Abe to a Joint Meeting of the U.S. Congress on April 29
(Source: Cabinet Public Relations Office)33
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34
Toward Further Strengthening Japan-U.S. Relationship
U.S.-Japan Relationship is the Most Important Bilateral Relation for
Japan, both Politically and Economically
The Two Countries Share the Same Fundamental Values of Freedom,
Democracy, Basic Human Rights, and Respect for the Market Economy,
and are Bonded to each other through Mutual Trust and Deep Friendship
Through Keidanren Mission, I strongly Hope to Reconfirm the Significance
of our Economic Relationship, and Deepen and Expand the Economic Ties
Between the Two Countries