National Environmental Observing System to Mitigate the Effects of Nuclear-Biological-

Chemical (NBC) Attacks: Strategic and Tactical

Rex J. Fleming

UCAR

April 21, 2003 Orlando

Contaminated Plumes from NBC Terrorism

Source:

Nuclear or radiation device

Truckload of Anthrax

Large Toxic Gas Release

Time Response:Very Short—Save lives, ease human suffering

Short-term—Move people out of harm’s way

Long Term—Determine when ground zero back to economic productivity

Data Requirements for Plume Models (lowest 20,000 feet):Accurate 4-dimensional input on winds (advection, dry deposition)

Accurate 4-dimensional input on water vapor and temperatures (stability, wet deposition, moist physics/chemistry, etc.)

Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events

• Plume models driven by Mesoscale Models• Mesoscale (high resolution in space and time)

models: highly volatile, extremely sensitive to quality and quantity of initial data

• Above results in a wide spectrum of results in short time period– stable predicted as unstable and vice versa– convective weather lines moving too fast or too

slow– moisture regions geographically misplaced and

intensity wrong by factor of two or more

Stable Unstable

Strong Winds

Weak Winds

less intense

more area affected

more intense

less area affected

least intense

least area affected (locally)

Impact of Atmospheric Stability on Contaminant Plumes

• Current upper air data (radiosonde system)– 350 km average horizontal resolution– two/day (12-hour) temporal resolution– Large errors in system movement due to advection

uncertainty– Very large error if systems developing or

dissipating• No high resolution data input

poor mesoscale (high resolution) model outputpoor plume model input

poor plume model guidancepotential large loss of life - needlessly

Potentially Dangerous Chain of Events (continued)

National Strategic Observing System:

- Serves entire country prior to an NBC event.

- Provides 4-D high resolution input as most powerful information source at location and time of NBC terrorist event

- Allows time (2-4 hours) for Tactical Observing System to be brought into ground zero

- Further supports Tactical System in determining radioactive fallout in case of nuclear event (near-surround vs. far-surround)

• Commercial A/C measure winds and temp (lat, long, and time available)

• Water vapor measurements proven in 1999-2000 (WVSS-I)

• Very accurate water vapor measurements with WVSS-II. Uses diode laser, UCAR air sampler (patent pending), and differential frequency modulation spectroscopy– Air sampler is flush mounted, drag-free, stealthy, optimized for

diode lasers and quantum cascade lasers, works on anything that moves

• Commercial A/C vertical profile of winds, temp, and water vapor costs $1.10 each vs. radiosonde recurring cost of $250 each

Figure 2. Cross section of complete sampler

Turbulence enhancer

Cylindrical sampling tube

Inertial separator (inside, see Fig. 3)

Aircraft skin

8.89 cm

24 cm

WVSS-II Lifetime Costs (20 Years) Per Aircraft

Purchase and Installation $18,000

Maintenance ($2,000 every two years) 20,000

Comms. Cost ($1,600/year/aircraft) 32,000

Total $70,000

Profiles: (10/day)(320 flight days/year)(20 years) = 64,000

Price per profile = $1.10

Tactical Observing System:(staged throughout country serving dual benefits – one is NBC terrorism event)

- Consists of a variety of systems: function of (nuclear, biological, or chemical)

- Includes existing satellite systems and systems brought in by first responders

- Measures 4-D area around ground zero and near-surround

- Consists of highly mobile systems (aerial and ground-based)

- Measures environment and contaminated plume (composition, strength, 4-D movement, trends)

Ground Mobile Systems

- trucks/vans

- all-terrain Hummers

- fast moving choreographed array for environmental data

- optimally positioned array for species identification, concentration and trends

Figure 4: Cartoon showing a possible ground-based mobile platform configuration [the concentric circles shown are only symbolic as the actual paths for the ground mobile systems would be polygons of available paths (streets and/or fields) that could be traversed].

Aerial Mobile Observational Platforms:

Special Manned Aircraft

- Some existing government a/c

- Some existing university and government research a/c

- Some existing older commercial a/c suitable for purpose

Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAV)

- Range from GNAT (48 hr endurance and 140 lb payload) to GlobalHawk (42 hr endurance and 1960 lb payload)

- Smaller, simpler, in-situ data and plume info only

     

National Strategic Observing Systems to Help Mitigate Effects of NBC Terrorism

  

Principal Investigators: 

Rex J. Fleming (UCAR)Tom Warner (NCAR)

  

Draft of May 27, 2003

   

DRAFT OF JUNE 16, 2003    

Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security

     

Principal Investigators: 

Rex J. Fleming (UCAR)Farzin Amzajerdian (NASA)

Robert Atlas (NASA)David Bowdle (U. of Alabama, Huntsville)

G. David Emmitt (SWA)Bruce Gentry (NASA)

R. Michael Hardesty (NOAA)Grady Koch (NASA)Tom Warner (NCAR)

MM5 Model Use is proposed in both Proposals

Proposal #1 (National Strategic Mesoscale Upper Air)

•Improved model physics, 4DDA:

•Using 100 times as many (VTq) profiles/day

•National grid predictions to DHS and their designees

Proposal #2 (Additional Strategic and Tactical Systems)

•Improved further nested model (relocatable)

•Using tactical observing systems

•Regional grid predictions sent to DHS and/or those in

charge of ground zero operations

Mesoscale Aircraft Network

OtherFederal Users

NWS /NCEP

ARINC

delayed q.c.feedback

NEW

MM5Model Runs

All OtherUsers

High ResolutionData

from Carriers

delayed q.c.data

Later (new)

Broad Agency Announcement DAAD05-03-T-0024Mission Area: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Countermeasures (CB)

Requirement Number: R000-CB-UCAR-2003-325Proposal Title: National Strategic Observing Systems to Help Mitigate Effects of NBC Terrorism

Proposed Technical Approach:Task 1:

•Add water vapor sensors to 2400 of the +5200 commercial aircraft that fly each day over the CONUS, providing over 21,000 profiles per day of winds, temperature, and water vapor.

•Add real-time communication systems to some regional air carriers (some regional air carriers and all major carriers have such systems today and many are providing winds and temperatures – without proper resolution and water vapor).

Task 2:

•Improve 4-dimensional data assimilation procedures to take advantage of new mesoscale data.

•Improve NCAR MM5 model (currently providing 24x7 model results to US Army) with better physics and data.

Operational Capability to be Provided:Life saving measures and a spectrum of other decisions required after an CBRN terrorist event demand accurate knowledge of the associated CBRN plume. Plume models are of little value if not properly driven by mesoscale (fine structure in space/time) environmental models initiated with accurate mesoscale upper air data.

•Task 1 fills this national observing system void by augmenting operational profiles from commercial aircraft, thus providing over 100 times the current available data each day (see red stations on map).

•Task 2 provides significantly improved real-time predictions – greatly enhancing the plume model guidance for government decision makers at all levels of concern.

ROM Cost & Schedule:•Task 1 period of performance is 3 years from date of receipt of funds (this allows commercial aircraft sensor installation without impacting operations).•Task 2 is a 3-year on-going analysis and model improvement program.

•Total cost is $105 million divided evenly over 3 years.

DeliverablesObserving system hardware on aircraft becomes property of air carriers; aircraft certification from FAA; model results sent via computer in real-time to DHS designees.

Corporate InformationDr. Rex J. FlemingUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research3300 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301Phone (303)497-8165 Fax (303)497-8158 Email fleming@joss.ucar.edu

National Strategic Upper Air Network (red + signs)

UCAR6/13/2003

Broad Agency Announcement DAAD05-03-T-0024Mission Area: Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear Countermeasures (CB)

Requirement Number: R000-CB-UCAR-2003-326Proposal Title: Addition of Strategic and Tactical Observing Systems for Homeland Security

Proposed Technical Approach:Task 1:•Add automatic ground based Doppler wind profilers at major coastal cities for possible coastal nuclear detonations.•Add proven hand-held devices for measuring plume composition to air mobile (special manned aircraft and UAVs) and ground mobile platforms (trucks/vans and all-terrain Hummers). Also add environmental sensors for wind, temperature, and water vapor to above mobile platforms.

Task 2:•Improve 4-dimensional data assimilation procedures for the small regional movable grid required to monitor/predict conditions following a terrorist event.•Implement relocatable finer scale version of national NCAR MM5 model to be major information source for ground zero operations

Operational Capability to be Provided:Once a CBRN even has occurred the contaminated plume will continue to evolve due to a number of dynamical, chemical, and physical processes. A mobile tactical observing system is required to measure both the environment and the plume near ground zero and the near-surround. Several tactical observing system configurations are pre-staged at locations around the country. This information is crucial for all subsequent actions and decisions – including those involved in saving lives.

Task 1 implements new observations at key coastal cities and mobile tactical observing systems for both the plume and the environment (ground-based, special manned aircraft, and UAVs).

Task 2 provides detailed regional model results for the region of the CBRN event.

Cartoon showing a possible ground-based mobile platform configuration [the concentric circles shown are only symbolic as the actual paths for the ground mobile systems would be polygons of available paths (streets and/or fields) that could be traversed].

ROM Cost & Schedule:(This is a large interagency effort lead by UCAR)•Task 1 period of performance is 3 years from date of receipt of funds (this allows time to select and equip the 30 regional hubs around the country).•Task 2 is a 3-year on-going analysis and model improvement program.

•Total cost is $138 million evenly divided over 3 years.

DeliverablesObserving system hardware; data and model results sent to DHS and/or ground zero operations center in real-time.

Corporate InformationDr. Rex J. FlemingUniversity Corporation for Atmospheric Research3300 Mitchell Lane, Boulder CO 80301Phone (303)497-8165 Fax (303)497-8158 Email fleming@joss.ucar.edu

UCAR6/13/2003

•This BAA (due 6/13/03) is only first opportunity

•May not be best avenue, but gives exposure

•Our reading of DHS desires:

•Available proven technology

•Tailored to Homeland Security issues

•Implemented quickly

•Our team and institutional skill can get job done

BUDGET for National Strategic Upper Air Obsrving System (thousands of dollars)

FY 2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 TOTAL

Non-recurring costsWVSS-II units (2400) 14400 14400 14400 43200

Comms: Regional A/C (600) 10000 10000 10000 30000

Turboprop software/comms 600

Certification expense 500 500 1000

TOTAL 25500 24900 24400 74200

Recurring costs

Comms 2500 4500 6500 6500 20000

Maintenance 1600 2400 4000

4DDA Improvement 400 400 500 1300

MM5 Model Implementation 400 300 300 200 1200

UCAR Project Support 850 900 950 1000 3700

TOTAL 4150 6100 9850 10100 30200

TOTAL TOTAL 29650 31000 34250 10100 105000

BUDGET SUMMARY: ADDITIONAL STRATEGIC and TACTICAL OBSERVING SYSTEMS(Thousands of dollars)

Task description FY #1 FY #2 FY#3 FY #4 Total

Wind profilers for coastal cities 4000 3000 3000 10000

Water vapor profiles at coastal cities 1000 2000 1000 4000

Commercial a/c wind profilers 2000 2000 1000 5000

WVSS-II on military aircraft 6200 5000 5000 16200

SMA wind profilers 3000 3500 3500 10000

UAV sensor package 1000 1000 1000 3000

UAV wind profilers 4000 3000 3000 10000

Vans/trucks (purchase and sensors) 8000 8000 8000 24000

Hummers (purchase and sensors) 14000 14000 14000 42000

RECURRING COSTS

Communications 500 1700 1700 3900

4DDA improvements 400 700 1100 400 2600

Model improvements 400 900 1100 400 2800

Administration costs 1000 1400 1600 500 4500

TOTAL COSTS 45000 45000 45000 3000 138000

Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others

Wind profilers for 20 Coastal Cities

Procure & test

Interface with NWS

Sites selected by DHS

Water vapor profilers (DIAL or Raman) for 20 coastal cities

Procure & test

Interface with NWS

Sites selected by DHS

Commercial a/c wind profilers (20)

Develop, certify, procure & test

Interface with possible air carriers

Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others

WVSS-II on Military Aircraft (900)

Procure

Interface with DOD

USAF & Navy pick A/C

Special Manned Aircraft (SMA) wind profiler

Procure & test

Interface with Federal Agencies (NASA, NOAA, DOD, etc.)

Volunteers come forward

UAV sensor package (Diode & QC lasers) – 50

Test QC, procure (Diode & QC)

Interface with manufactures on options

DHS picks UAVs and hubs

Proposal Actions Liaison activities Related actions by others

UAV Wind Profilers (50)

Develop, certify, procure

Interface with manufactures on options

DHS picks UAVs and hubs

Vans/trucks (purchase [all or some] and sensors 10 each @ 30 sites)

Determine sensor location, purchase, equip, test

Interface with manufactures

DHS selects 30 regional hubs

Hummers (purchase [all or some] and sensors 10 each @ 30 sites)

Determine sensor location, purchase, equip, test

Interface with manufactures

DHS selects 30 regional hubs