rice situation and outlook robert coats, professor and extension economist southern outlook...
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Rice Situation and OutlookRobert Coats, Professor and Extension Economist
Southern Outlook ConferenceSeptember 22- 24, 2008
Monthly Rice
Rice - protected commodity Given global food price inflation, the scattered global food riots, and now a global financial crisis Do you now believe that rice will be less or more protected by the major rice producing countries of the world?
U.S. Long Grain Rice Harvested By State 1996-2008, Thousand Acres
Primary U.S. rice discussion will be on long grain rice
U.S. Medium Grain Rice Harvested By State 1996-2008, Thousand Acres
U.S. Short Grain Rice Harvested By State 1996-2008, Thousand Acres
U.S. All Rice Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
U.S. rice acreage declines with increasing cost of production and increased price uncertainty
Soybeans, Weekly
Corn, Weekly
Wheat, Weekly
Rice, WeeklyFood inflation/riots
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4%
Thai 100% grade B
Vietnam, 5 percent
RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Nominal Rice Quotes – 2007 to Present
One Outcome From High Rice Price Was Food Riots
Food riots were expected
April 10, 2008
Why is there a rice supply problem?
U.S. and global rice supplies aretight but adequate.
ProblemHording, processing, distribution and/or availability
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/0925
7 270 27
8 285
307 31
7
318
316
315
332 34
5 351
353
354
355 36
4 369 38
1 387 39
5 409
399
400
378 39
2 401
418
420 43
0
432
258 27
1
280
279 29
4
298 30
8
310
313 32
6 336
345
353
358
359
365
368 37
9
380
388 40
0
395 41
3
408
414
409
416
421
427
429
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Production Consumption
Millions of Metric Tons
3 of 48 of 13
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
Global ending stocks are projected to increase 4% in 2008/09
World Rice Area Harvested 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Hectares
World Rice Milled Production 1978/79-2008/09Millions of Metric Tons
World Rice Trade Calendar Year 1980-2009Millions of Metric Tons
ProtectionismFinancial Crisis
U.S. Long Grain Rice Situation
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
All Rice
4
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Supply 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
2
U.S. All Rice Imports 1970/71 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
U.S. Long Grain Rice Domestic and Residual 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
2
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Exports 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
Long Grain
3
U.S. All Rice Rough Exports 1970/71 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
3
U.S. Long Grain Rice Total Use 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
3
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
Rice Outlook
World Rice Ending Stocks 1978/79-2008/09
Millions of Metric Tons
Improvements in global supply and availability are projected… Global supply will remain tight but adequateSignificant damaging global weather event would once again raise major concerns about supply availability
World Rice Milled Consumption and Production 1979/80 – 2008/0925
7 270 27
8 285
307 31
7
318
316
315
332 34
5 351
353
354
355 36
4 369 38
1 387 39
5 409
399
400
378 39
2 401
418
420 43
0
432
258 27
1
280
279 29
4
298 30
8
310
313 32
6 336
345
353
358
359
365
368 37
9
380
388 40
0
395 41
3
408
414
409
416
421
427
429
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Production Consumption
Millions of Metric Tons
3 of 48 of 13
The major rice producing countries stand ready to take any required action to maintain adequate production
World Rice Trade Calendar Year 1980-2009Millions of Metric Tons
Exporting countries have and will continue to meet their commitment…Slowing global economy… Results in drop in global rice prices
ProtectionismCredit Crisis
U.S. long grain, No. 2, 4%
Thai 100% grade B
Vietnam, 5 percent
RICE: WORLD MARKETS AND TRADE
Nominal Rice Quotes – 2003 to Present
U.S. Long Grain Rice Production 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
USDA’s optimism about yields will not be realize which will provide rice prices some support
Financial Crisis B
earish For R
ice Prices
Dow Jones - Industrial Average
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
More weakness than strength
U.S. Dollar Index
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Corn
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Corn
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Wheat
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Wheat
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Soybeans
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Rough Rice
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
CBOT Rough Rice
Chart courtesy of TradingCharts.com: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/
U.S. Long Grain Rice Ending Stocks 1982/83 – 2008/09
Million hundredweight
Rice Long Grain Monthly Chart
USDA 2008/09$16.26 per cwtMarket direction
End
Arkansas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
California Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
Louisiana Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
Mississippi Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
Missouri Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
Texas Long Grain Rice Harvested Acres and Percent of U.S. Long Grain Harvested Acres, 1972-2008
1,000 Acres
September 1, 2008
U.S. All Rice Harvested By State 1996-2008, Thousand Acres