richard arum and josipa roksa april 8, 2011 education writers association
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Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa April 8, 2011 Education Writers Association. Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Richard Arum and Josipa Roksa
April 8, 2011Education Writers Association
*We thank the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Lumina, Ford and Teagle Foundations for their generous financial support and the Council for Aid to Education for collaboration and assistance with data collection.Academically Adrift: Limited Learning on College Campuses
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Longitudinal DesignFall 2005, Spring 2007, Spring 2009, Spring 2010, Spring 2011 (planned)
Large Scale2005-2007: 24 diverse four-year institutions; 2,341 students2005-2009: 29 diverse four-year institutions, 1,666 students
Breadth of InformationFamily background and high school information, college experiences and contexts, college transcriptsCollegiate Learning Assessment (CLA)
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Note: Based on Spring 2007 survey.
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Note: Based on Spring 2007 survey.
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Academic time from 1925-1965 in time diaries relatively constant (39.2 to 34.1)
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Note: Predicting 2007 CLA scores while controlling for 2005 CLA scores.
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Note: Based on a 3-level HLM model, controlling for a range of demographic/family characteristics.
Chart2
1074.4361138.55
1079.1691184.615
1120.1131231.571
African American
White
descriptives
Descriptives
test scores by race and parental ed
based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)
NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)
Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,
which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)
200520072009200520072009
Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6
Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59
Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7
White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26
descriptives
2005
2007
2009
baseline models
2005
2007
2009
predict class and race
Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6
Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**
(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)
Parental education
Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094
(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)
Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847
(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)
Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078
(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)
Race/ethnicity
African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688
(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)
Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101
(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)
Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650
(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)
Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709
(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)
Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*
(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)
Other demographics
Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**
(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)
Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668
(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)
Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570
(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)
HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^
(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)
SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**
(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)
2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**
(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)
Interactions with Parental Education
2007*Some college5.439
(13.664)
2007*Bachelor's degree7.698
(12.937)
2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168
(12.453)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**
(11.473)(12.942)
2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860
(13.717)(13.737)
2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081
(18.115)(18.342)
2007*Other-16.307-15.420
(18.561)(18.572)
Interaction with SAT/ACT
2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029
(0.021)(0.024)
2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**
(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)
Interactions with Parental Education
2009*Some college-8.036
(15.961)
2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783
(14.978)
2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688
(14.237)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**
(12.998)(14.291)
2009*Asian-2.805-1.824
(17.525)(17.376)
2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^
(22.697)(22.736)
2009*Other7.9377.191
(22.678)(22.527)
Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032
2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)
^p
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23 percent of CLA growth between 2005 and 2009 occurs across institutions
Chart1
23
77
descriptives
Descriptives
test scores by race and parental ed
based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)
NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)
Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,
which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)
200520072009200520072009
Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6
Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59
Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7
White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26
descriptives
000
000
000
000
2005
2007
2009
baseline models
000
000
000
000
2005
2007
2009
predict class and race
Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6
Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**
(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)
Parental education
Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094
(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)
Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847
(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)
Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078
(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)
Race/ethnicity
African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688
(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)
Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101
(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)
Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650
(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)
Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709
(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)
Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*
(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)
Other demographics
Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**
(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)
Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668
(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)
Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570
(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)
HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^
(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)
SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**
(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)
2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**
(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)
Interactions with Parental Education
2007*Some college5.439
(13.664)
2007*Bachelor's degree7.698
(12.937)
2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168
(12.453)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**
(11.473)(12.942)
2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860
(13.717)(13.737)
2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081
(18.115)(18.342)
2007*Other-16.307-15.420
(18.561)(18.572)
Interaction with SAT/ACT
2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029
(0.021)(0.024)
2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**
(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)
Interactions with Parental Education
2009*Some college-8.036
(15.961)
2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783
(14.978)
2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688
(14.237)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**
(12.998)(14.291)
2009*Asian-2.805-1.824
(17.525)(17.376)
2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^
(22.697)(22.736)
2009*Other7.9377.191
(22.678)(22.527)
Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032
2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)
^p
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Note: Based on a 3-level HLM model, controlling for a range of demographic/family characteristics.
Chart3
1169.9751137.205
1214.3351163.875
1265.2821204.962
High selectivity
Low selectivity
descriptives
Descriptives
test scores by race and parental ed
based on the full sample (i.e., all students, even if not present in every year)
NOTE: the means and gaps across groups and years vary by sample (i.e., patterns would be different if we restricted to students present at all time points)
Black students go slightly down in 2007 because of the addition of 2005 scores in 2009 (i.e., retrospective addition of 2005 scores for students who made it through all four years,
which increases the 2005 score; if we considered 2005 score only for students present in 2005 and 2007, the 2005 score would be just under 1000)
200520072009200520072009
Black1010.51007.331073.04HS or less1079.381103.631175.6
Hispanic1108.471152.071164.7Some college1082.641118.471163.59
Asian1124.641147.791224.79College degree1135.031170.711223.7
White1166.121211.431267.79Grad/prof degree1177.031220.481280.26
descriptives
2005
2007
2009
baseline models
2005
2007
2009
predict class and race
Table 1. Three-level HLM models estimating the relationship between individual background and CLA scores
Model 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6
Intercept (average initial status)1144.760**1147.880**1138.550**1153.520**1153.560**1147.620**
(18.097)(18.680)(18.180)(12.554)(12.563)(12.689)
Parental education
Some college2.8662.6923.087-9.244-9.221-9.094
(8.424)(10.799)(8.420)(7.567)(7.567)(7.561)
Bachelor's degree11.7709.50112.086-9.032-9.045-8.847
(8.170)(10.357)(8.167)(7.367)(7.367)(7.361)
Graduate/professional degree23.587**16.915^23.910**-1.377-1.347-1.078
(8.196)(10.207)(8.194)(7.405)(7.404)(7.400)
Race/ethnicity
African-American-88.905**-88.980**-64.114**-40.825**-40.975**-16.688
(9.969)(9.968)(11.443)(9.034)(9.034)(11.052)
Asian-28.484**-28.456**-19.323-18.734*-18.736*-10.101
(9.829)(9.829)(12.068)(8.798)(8.797)(11.265)
Hispanic-22.355^-22.317^-14.2496.8646.86614.650
(12.159)(12.158)(15.164)(10.950)(10.949)(14.312)
Other-37.027**-36.947**-32.352*-22.956*-23.112*-18.709
(11.452)(11.453)(14.781)(10.270)(10.270)(13.919)
Male-2.438-2.420-2.300-11.286*-11.309*-11.190*
(4.999)(4.998)(4.997)(4.484)(4.483)(4.480)
Other demographics
Non-English home language-41.782**-41.799**-41.495**-22.080**-22.027**-21.599**
(8.792)(8.792)(8.790)(7.909)(7.908)(7.905)
Two-parent household2.3132.2782.660-2.840-2.915-2.668
(6.712)(6.713)(6.710)(6.027)(6.027)(6.023)
Number of siblings-3.320-3.332-3.3230.5070.5280.570
(2.286)(2.286)(2.285)(2.052)(2.052)(2.051)
HS 70% or more non-white-20.647*-20.593*-20.534*-15.251^-15.286*-15.158^
(8.691)(8.691)(8.691)(7.787)(7.787)(7.785)
SAT/ACT0.457**0.433**0.454**
(0.017)(0.020)(0.021)
2007 average growth rate36.215**28.493**46.065**36.467**36.511**44.999**
(4.062)(10.471)(5.062)(4.053)(4.050)(5.211)
Interactions with Parental Education
2007*Some college5.439
(13.664)
2007*Bachelor's degree7.698
(12.937)
2007*Graduate/professional degree12.168
(12.453)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2007*African-American-41.332**-34.617**
(11.473)(12.942)
2007*Asian-22.768^-21.860
(13.717)(13.737)
2007*Hispanic-3.0011.081
(18.115)(18.342)
2007*Other-16.307-15.420
(18.561)(18.572)
Interaction with SAT/ACT
2007*SAT/ACT0.059**0.029
(0.021)(0.024)
2009 average growth rate83.646**81.720**93.021**84.100**84.161**95.233**
(4.693)(12.118)(5.692)(4.659)(4.661)(5.869)
Interactions with Parental Education
2009*Some college-8.036
(15.961)
2009*Bachelor's degree-1.783
(14.978)
2009*Graduate/professional degree10.688
(14.237)
Interactions with Race/Ethnicity
2009*African-American-47.344**-55.035**
(12.998)(14.291)
2009*Asian-2.805-1.824
(17.525)(17.376)
2009*Hispanic-36.256-41.576^
(22.697)(22.736)
2009*Other7.9377.191
(22.678)(22.527)
Interaction with SAT/ACT0.018-0.032
2009*SAT/ACT(0.025)(0.028)
^p
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College Graduates, Spring 2010 follow-up survey - preliminary findings
60 percent reported loans (averaging $26,800)
9 percent are currently unemployed
Only 35% earn more than $30,00048% if working FT
Only 17% earn more than $40,00023% if working FT
31 percent living with parents and relatives
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Federal imposed accountability would be counterproductive (existing measurements are imperfect; unintended consequences likely)
Accountability should operate at lower levels in the system
Federal resources could provide incentives for institutional improvement, innovation and assessment
Federal resources needed to develop research infrastructure to advance scientific knowledge of learning in higher education
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http://highered.ssrc.org/
Richard Arum [email protected]
Josipa [email protected]
Table 1, Model 3Table 2, Model 2