Richard DaviesDirector

NI 186 Per Capita Carbon Dioxide Reduction: The New Carbon Challenge

Never before have our emerging environmental crises been laid out so clearly before us. Rather than shouting from the fringes, respected

economists, scientists, and politicians are sounding the warnings in high-profile journals and the halls of government – warnings that our

oceans are dying, that the ice shelves are melting, and that we are setting ourselves up for the most massive and devastating market

failure humanity has ever seen.

So we recycle. We vote greener. We buy sleek new hybrid cars and fill our houses with energy efficient light bulbs. And we put our money and

faith in the brave and ingenious technologies that will rescue us from the whirlwind.

But it won’t be enough.

Because this is not, fundamentally a technological problem. Nor is it, fundamentally, a political problem. This is a problem of appetites, and

of self deceit. The planet is breaking, and it is breaking under the weight of our hunger for more.

To reform the world, we must first reform ourselves.Tom Green, Ecological Economist

Good Morning!

’We see nothing truly

till we understand it’

John Constable 1836

Jeroen van der Veer, CEO Shell28th January 2008

"Regardless of which route we choose, the world's

current predicament limits our maneuvering

room. We are experiencing a

step-change in the growth rate of energy demand

due to population growth and economic

development, and Shell estimates that after 2015 supplies of easy-to-access oil

and gas will nolonger keep

up with demand."

√

Solihull – How big are your feet?• Total Emissions 2005 (tonnes CO2)

– Industry & Commercial

– Domestic

– Road Transport

– TOTAL• Solihull per capita emissions (pop. 199,517): 9.7

tonnes• Average UK Emissions: 7.9 tonnes• Worse than average?• Why?

731,000

512,000

684,000

1,927,000

Local Authority Industry & Commerce Domestic Transport

Solihull 3.6 2.6 3.4

South Shropshire 2.6 2.7 4.7

Woking 2.6 2.5 1.6

Source: DEFRA/AEA Technology. Local & Regional estimates by end user, summary 2005.

Tonnes of carbon dioxide per capita

√√

Reduction Curve?

Low hanging fruit Political space Fair share

Future Techno Collapse Oops! Too much shopping…..

100%

40%

20%

~0%

Low Hanging Fruit? 2, 4 or 6%

1990 2050

Solihull’s first year target

• To reduce CO2 emissions by 2% per annum

= 38,540 t CO2

Estimated savings for Solihull??Year 2010 2020Business savings 4% 7%Road Transport savings (all measures) 4% 5%Domestic savings (all measures) 4% 9%

Savings in 2010 from all measures 12% 22%

National measures 7% 9%

National measures with LA influence 4% 11%

Local measures 1% 1%

Uncertainty range +/-% for all measures

2% 3%

√√√

Which might be the most effective measures in Solihull?

2010 - Poole Savings

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Car

bon

Trus

t

Build

ing

Reg

ulat

ions

(re

-eva

luat

ed)

Clim

ate

chan

ge a

gree

men

tsC

arbo

n Tr

ust s

uppo

rt fo

r in

vest

men

t in

ener

gy e

ffici

ency

in S

ME

sM

easu

res

to e

ncou

rage

or

assi

st S

ME

sto

take

up

ener

gy s

avin

g op

port

uniti

esE

nerg

y P

erfo

rman

ce o

f Bui

ldin

gsD

irect

ive

Bus

ines

s S

mar

t Met

erin

gN

ew m

easu

re fo

r ac

hiev

ing

carb

onsa

ving

s fro

m la

rge

non-

ener

gy in

tens

ive

Pro

duct

s Po

licy

Car

bon

Red

uctio

n C

omm

itmen

t

Rev

olvi

ng lo

an fu

nd fo

r the

pub

lic s

ecto

r

Act

iviti

es in

clud

ing

CT

Car

bon

Neu

tral

Gov

erne

men

tE

nerg

y P

erfo

rman

ce o

f Bui

ldin

gsD

irect

ive

Pro

duct

s po

licy

Ener

gy E

ffici

ency

Com

mitm

ent (

EEC

)(2

002-

05)

(re-

eval

uate

d)En

ergy

Effi

cien

cy C

omm

itmen

t (EE

C)

(200

5-08

) (r

e-ev

alua

ted)

Ene

rgy

Effi

cien

cy C

omm

itmen

t (E

EC

) (2

008-

11)

(re-

eval

uate

d =

CE

RT

)Su

pplie

r O

blia

gtio

ns a

fter 2

011

Build

ing

Reg

ulat

ions

(re

-eva

luat

ed)

Zer

o C

arbo

n H

omes

Ene

rgy

Per

form

ance

of B

uild

ings

Dire

ctiv

eP

acka

ge o

f mea

sure

s to

impr

ove

ener

gyef

ficie

ncy

in b

uild

ings

War

m F

ront

and

fuel

pov

erty

prog

ram

mes

Ene

rgy

Effi

cien

t Pro

duct

s/P

rodu

ct P

olic

y(a

dditi

onal

)Be

tter

billi

ng

Rea

l tim

e di

spla

ys a

nd S

mar

t met

erin

gW

inte

r fu

el p

aym

ents

link

ed to

ene

rgy

effic

ienc

y H

ouse

ext

ensi

on c

onse

quen

tial w

ork

Gre

en r

oofs

Gra

nts

to e

ncou

rage

top-

up lo

ftin

sula

tion

unde

r th

e E

ECR

aisi

ng m

imim

um s

tand

ards

for

win

dow

repl

acem

ents

Volu

ntar

y A

gree

men

ts p

acka

ge(e

xclu

ding

VA

ext

ensi

on b

eyon

d 20

09)

Fut

ure

Vol

unta

ry A

gree

men

tsR

enew

able

Tra

nspo

rt F

uel O

blig

atio

n(R

TF

O)

(re

-eva

luat

ed)

Fue

l dut

y es

cala

tor

exte

nsio

n to

sus

tain

able

dis

trib

utio

npr

ogra

mm

esm

arte

r ch

oice

s (s

ee e

xpan

ded

mea

sure

s be

low

)P

ublic

Tra

nspo

rt M

easu

res

ID number

kT C

O 2

Big Wind

• One 2 MW wind turbine installed in a decent site for wind speed…….

– 2,000 kW x 8,760 hours/year x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh x 0.3 load factor =

2,260 tonnes CO2/year

17!

Small Wind

• One 6 kW wind turbine installed on a 9m mast…….

– 6 kW x 8,760 hours/year x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh x 0.22 load factor =

5 tonnes CO2/year

7,708 turbines

• 1 in every 10 of houses with a 6kW wind turbine…….!

Solar Hot Water Heating

• A domestic scale solar hot water heating (SHWH) system will save around 1,400 kWh of water heating fuel per year. Let’s assume that this is mains gas…….– 1,400 kWh x

0.00019 tonnes CO2/kWh =

0.27 tonnes CO2/year

143,000! (only 80,930 houses)

Photovoltaics

• A domestic scale (1kWp) photovoltaic system will generate around 750 kWh of electricity per year.

– 750 kWh x 0.00043 tonnes CO2/kWh =

0.32 tonnes CO2/year

Help: Not all homes are suitable for PV. Assume that 33% of homes in Mansfield can be fitted with PV

120,000! (still only 80,930 houses)

Cavity Wall Insulation

• Cavity Wall insulation saves (average) 0.634 tonnes CO2 / year (Ref: CERT)

• 39.1% of UK homes have an unfilled cavity (Ref: Shorrocks & Utley 2004)

61,000! (only c. 15,000 unfilled in

Solihull)

Domestic Lighting• The average UK home has 25 lights

fittings (Market Transformation Programme (MTP) 2005)

• Assume that this means 25 light bulbs

• The average UK home has 3 low energy bulbs (MTP 2005)

• One low energy bulb will save 0.0081 tonnes CO2/annum

216,000 homes worth!

Loft Insulation

• Loft top-up saves (average) 0.313 tonnes CO2 / year (Ref: CERT)

• 43% of accessible lofts have less than 100mm of insulation (Shorrocks & Utley 2004)

123,000! (only c. 16,600 sub-standard

lofts in Solihull)

√√√√

Our target

To reduce CO2 emissions in three communities in Shropshire by 5.88% by April 2009

3,820 t CO2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

Month / Year

Carb

on D

ioxi

de S

aved

(t)

Travel behaviourchangeCommunityLight FantasticCommunity

Travel behaviourchange LCCB

Technology FairLCCB

Behavioralchange LCCB

Total annualcummulated

Total Annual CO2 Savings

“Make no little plans. They have no magic to stir men's blood... Make big plans; aim high in hope and work.” Daniel Hudson Burnham 1846-1912

“Search all the parks in all your cities; you'll find no statues of committees.” David Ogilvy 1911-1999

‘If future generations are to remember us more with gratitude than contempt, we must leave them more than the miracles of technology. We must leave them a glimpse of the world as it was in the beginning, not just after we got through with it.’ Lyndon B. Johnson

Don’t just stand there, do something!

thank you