richard perez - gw solar symposium 2012
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SOLAR ENERGY: A Path to Energy Significance 4/12/12
DISPERSED PV GENERATION: SOLAR RESOURCE VARIABILITY
Richard Perez Tom Hoff
DISPERSED PV GENERATION: SOLAR RESOURCE VARIABILITY
SPATIAL
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
TEMPORAL TIME SCALE
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
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One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m)
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One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m)
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
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0%
20%
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80%
100%Minute-to-Minute Change (% maximum yield)
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Minute-to-Minute Change (% maximum yield)
SINGLE LOCATION
20 UNCORRELATED LOCATIONS
© R. Perez et al
Relative Variability = 1/√N N locations
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
Variability = σ(∆kt*)
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One-Minute Global Irradiance (W/sq.m)
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%Minute-to-Minute Change (% maximum yield)
20 UNCORRELATED LOCATIONS
© R. Perez et al
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
Relative Variability = 1/√N N locations
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
16 Months of data -- 40 million data points
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
Virtual Networks Time space = f (cloud speed)
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
400x400km satellite-derived hi-resolution one-minute data
16 Months of data -- 40 million data points 16 Months of data -- 4 Billion data points
Very high density modular networks
66 stations
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∆K
t* C
orre
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Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
One minute
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
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∆K
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orre
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Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
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∆K
t* C
orre
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Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
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∆K
t* C
orre
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Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute
5-minutes
15-minutes
30-minutes
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
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∆K
t* C
orre
latio
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Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute5-minutes15-minutes30-minutesOne Hour
HAWAII LAND Nov 2011 CLOUD SPEED 13 km/h
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
NEVADA Jun 1998 CLOUD SPEED 24 km/h
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∆K
t* C
orre
latio
n
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute5-minutes15-minutes30-minutesOne Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
HAWAII Dec 2010 CLOUD SPEED 26 km/h
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∆K
t* C
orre
latio
n
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute5-minutes15-minutes30-minutesOne Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
CENT. CALIFORNIA Mar 1998 CLOUD SPEED 30 km/h
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∆K
t* C
orre
latio
n
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute5-minutes15-minutes30-minutesOne Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
SOUTH GT. PLAINS Dec 2010 CLOUD SPEED 44 km/h
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
∆K
t* C
orre
latio
n
Site-pair distance distance (km)
One minute5-minutes15-minutes30-minutesOne Hour
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
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∆K
t* C
orre
latio
n
-0.20 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Site-pair distance distance (km)
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
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0 5 10 15
Corr
elat
ion
Zero
Cro
ssov
er D
ista
nce
(km
)
Fluctuation Delta T (minutes)
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
∆t
Zero
Cor
rella
tion
Dist
ance
BASE GENERATION
VARIABLE GENERATION
SOLAR GENERATION STORAGE
CRITICAL TIME SCALE
Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour
Small PV
Large PV or dist. feeder
Utility
Balancing Area
Application
Technical Solutions
Interconnection Hardware
Voltage reg. devices
Storage
Load Management, contingency variable generation
SolarAnywhere High Resolution
SolarAnywhere Standard Resolution
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
CRITICAL TIME SCALE
Seconds Minutes Half Hour Hour
SolarAnywhere High Resolution
SolarAnywhere Standard Resolution
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
Measured and simulated 10 second fleet output for a 4 km x 4 km region
© R. Perez & T. Hoff.
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
-1
-0.5
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Delta
Kt*
-1
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1De
lta K
t*
-1
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Delta
Kt*
single point
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Delta
Kt*
single point
20-Second fluctuations
1-minute fluctuations
5-minute fluctuations
15-minute fluctuations
SINGLE POINT
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
-1
-0.5
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Delta
Kt*
-1
-0.5
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1De
lta K
t*
-1
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Delta
Kt*
-1
-0.5
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Delta
Kt*
20-Second fluctuations
1-minute fluctuations
5-minute fluctuations
15-minute fluctuations
SINGLE POINT
40x40 km AREA
© Richard Perez / Tom Hoff
Hourly Variability divided by 5
3-Hour Variability divided by 5
6-Hour Variability divided by 5
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1
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0 5 10 15
Corr
elat
ion
Zero
Cro
ssov
er D
ista
nce
(km
)
Fluctuation Delta T (minutes)
∆t = 24 hours
Source: Marc Perez, Columbia University
∆t
Zero
Cor
rella
tion
Dist
ance
Perez et al., ASRC
100oF
80oF
20oF
40oF
60oF
© Richard Perez, ASRC
Early 2012 Heat Wave
0 30 60 100
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
0.10 0.23 0.28 0.33 0.38 0.43 0.48 0.53 0.58 0.63 0.68 0.73 0.78 0.83 0.88 0.93 0.98 10 x10 km 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 3.9% 11.6% 79.2%
Clearness IndexDistributed
resource footprint
30x30 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 1.9% 2.9% 7.5% 84.3%
70x70 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 3.9% 94.4%90x90 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.0% 97.8%
110x110 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 97.3%
50x50 km 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 97.6%
A/C Solar Peak Shaving Guarantee increases with resource distribution
15-year Clearness Index distribution for all hours with T >88F, Central CA
Probability of having less than a 90% ideal solar resource: ZERO
10x10km 30x30km 50x50km 70x70km 90x90km 110x110km
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
More intense cloud impact
More intense turbidity impact
FLAT PLATE vs. CONCENTRATION
Capa
city
fact
or
© R. Perez & T. Hoff
Thank you
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