richmond brothers, inc. is a registered investment adviser. richmond brothers, inc. does not provide...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser. Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor](https://reader038.vdocument.in/reader038/viewer/2022110116/551a3db9550346cb358b54ed/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Richmond Brothers, Inc. is a Registered Investment Adviser.
Richmond Brothers, Inc. does not provide tax or legal advice; consult your tax or legal advisor regarding your particular situation.
The indices mentioned in this seminar are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and statements of financial market trends that are based on current market conditions constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. We believe the information contained in this commentary has been obtained from sources that are reliable. This presentation is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or
solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security.
These are the views of Platinum Advisor Marketing Strategies, LLC, and not necessarily those of the named representative, Broker dealer or Investment Advisor, and should not be construed
as investment advice. Neither the named representative nor the named Broker dealer or Investment Advisor gives tax or legal advice. All information is believed to be from reliable sources; however, we make no representation as to its completeness or accuracy. Please
consult your financial advisor for further information.
FORMALITIES
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Source: National Clearing House for Long Term Care Information, 2011
GENERAL TRIVIA
Q: _____ percent of people over 65 will need help at some point with everyday living tasks (such as bathing, eating and dressing).
A: 40B: 50C: 60D: 70
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A Review of 2013Factors Affecting the Stock Market and
Economy2014 ForecastsTax Time Reminders
AGENDA
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The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2013.
SINCE THE 2007 PEAK
S&P 500 – October 2007 through December 2013
17.58% 1800
1600
1400
1200
1000
800
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The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2013.
2013 SNAPSHOT
Fed Hints At End of QEApproaching
Sequestration Deadline
Renewed Tapering
Fears
Government Shutdown
Budget Debates
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Source: Barrons.com
2013 FORECASTS
Analyst Expectation S&P 500 Close1400.00
1450.00
1500.00
1550.00
1600.00
1650.00
1700.00
1750.00
1800.00
1850.00
1562.00
1848.36
Analyst Expectations vs. Actual S&P 500 Close for 2013
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COMPARING RETURNS
Source: Google Finance, MSCI Barra. Disclosures on following slide.
2013 Index Performance
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DISCLOSURES
The indices mentioned on the previous slide are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. All data is sourced from Yahoo Finance and MSCI unless otherwise noted.
S&P 500 measures the performance of large capitalization U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 is a market-value-weighted index of 500 stocks that are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ. The weightings make each company’s influence on the Index performance directly proportional to that company’s market value.
S&P 500 Growth and S&P 500 Value measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in large cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the S&P 500 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those S&P 500 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than average growth orientation. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
Russell 2000 measures the performance of small capitalization U.S. stocks. The Russell 2000 is a market-value-weighted index of the 2,000 smallest stocks in the broad-market Russell 3000 Index. These securities are traded on the NYSE, AMEX, and NASDAQ.
Russell 2000 Value and Russell 2000 Growth measure the performance of the growth and value styles of investing in small cap U.S. stocks. The indices are constructed by dividing the market capitalization of the Russell 2000 Index into Growth and Value indices, using style “factors” to make the assignment. The Value Index contains those Russell 2000 securities with a greater-than-average value orientation, while the Growth Index contains those securities with a greater-than-average growth orientation. Securities in the Value Index generally have lower price-to-book and price-earnings ratios than those in the Growth Index. The indices are market-capitalization-weighted. The constituent securities are not mutually exclusive.
MSCI EAFE is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of the developed stock markets of Europe, Australasia, and the Far East.
MSCI Emerging Markets is a Morgan Stanley Capital International Index that is designed to measure the performance of equity markets in 21 emerging countries around the world.
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year.
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COMPARING HYPOTHETICAL RETURNS
This is a hypothetical example only, and is not intended to represent any actual investment. Indexes are unmanaged and not available for direct investment. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is an unmanaged group of securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general. The Barclays Aggregate Bond Index
includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of at least one year. The 50% Stock / 50% Bond blend is a hybrid of 50% S&P 500 and 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. All index returns exclude reinvested dividends. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data Source: Google Finance.
2013 Index Performance
S&P 500 Barclay's Aggregate Bond Index
50/50 Blend-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
29.6%
-2.0%
13.8%
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55
55.5
56
56.5
57
57.5
58
58.5
J F M A M J J A S O N D
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index - 2013 Performance
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of atleast one year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Data Source: Google Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2013.
BONDS
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Barclays Aggregate Bond Index (formerly the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index) includes U.S. government, corporate, and mortgage-backed securities with maturities of atleast one year. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Indices are unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
Data Source: Yahoo Finance. All data as of December 31st, 2013.
BONDS
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index – 2013 Performance
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Source: BLS.gov, online.wsj.com. Projections are based on opinions of analysts polled at the time of the survey. Survey conducted December 6-10, 2013. The Wall Street Journal surveys a group of 56 economists throughout the year.
FORECASTS: FED FUNDS TARGET RATE
Historical
Forecast
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Source: Bloomberg, 9/30/13. GDP (Gross Domestic Product) is the total value of all final goods and services produced
in a country in a given year. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
ECONOMIES OF THE WORLD
ChinaIndia
Brazil
Japan
Canad
aU.S. U.K.
Mexico
Russia
German
y
France
Greece
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
7.8%
4.8%3.3% 2.7% 2.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.3% 1.2%
6.0%
2.0%
-3.0%
Year Over Year GDP Growth by Country
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Source: FuelFix
FINANCIAL TRIVIA
Q: The biggest one-year jump in U.S. average daily oil production occurred in…
A: 1956B: 1980C: 2012D: 2013
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A Review of 2013Factors Affecting the Stock Market and
Economy
AGENDA
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HOUSING
Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor's, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes the prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and average new home prices excluding a 20% downpayment. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, National
Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
Home PricesIndexed to 100, seasonally adjusted
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HOUSING
Sources: (Left) National Association of Realtors, Standard & Poor's, FHFA, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. (Top right) Census Bureau, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Monthly mortgage payment assumes the prevailing 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rates and average new home prices excluding a 20% downpayment. (Bottom right) Census Bureau, National
Association of Realtors, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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EMPLOYMENT
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to the Markets - U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
6.7%
10%
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CORPORATE CASH
Source: Standard & Poor’s, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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INFLATION
Source: BLS, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. CPI used is CPI-U and values shown are % change vs. 1 year ago and reflect November 2013 CPI data. Core CPI is defined as CPI excluding food an energy prices. Guide to the Markets – U.S. Data are as of 12/31/13.
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Source: TreasurDirect.gov
FINANCIAL TRIVIA
Q: Today, the national debt is over $17 trillion. In 1981, it was less than…
A: $1 trillionB: $3 trillionC: $7 trillionD: $11 trillion
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A Review of 2013Factors Affecting the Stock Market and
Economy2014 Forecasts
AGENDA
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Source: Business Insider
2014 FORECASTS
2014 S&P 500 Target
Average 1,949
(5.46% growth)
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Source: The views displayed on this slide represent the opinions of Oppenheimer as of 12/31/13, are subject to change based on subsequent developments, arenot intended as investment advice, and are not intended to predict or depict the performance of any investment.
FORECAST
Interest Rates
U.S. Housing
Global Economic Growth
Credit
Inflation
U.S. Politics
Consumer
Equity Valuations
Geopolitical Risks
Cyclical Slowdown In Emerging Markets
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CURRENT INTERESTS
February 4, 2014
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Source: UBS U.S. Equity and Derivatives Strategy 2014 Outlook
RISING RATES AND STOCKS
1986 34.7% over 8 months
1988 41.9% over 28 months
1999 11.3% over 9 months
2004 37.2% over 40 months
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BE WELL.
“…a one-day drop in equities of around 1.5% is followed by about a 0.26% increase in hospital admissions on average over the next two days.
Equity-market losses appear to induce 3,700 market- related hospitalizations a year in California…”
Source: InvestmentNews
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Source: Huffington Post
FINANCIAL TRIVIA
Q: Start with a dollar. Double it every day. In 48 days you'll own…
A: $20 millionB: $200 millionC: $200 billionD: $200 trillion
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A Review of 2013Factors Affecting the Stock Market and
Economy2014 ForecastsTax Time Reminders
AGENDA
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TAX HELP
• February 18th, 2014 Most tax forms available• Visit website (www.richmondbrothers.com) for resources:
Tax bracketsMailing datesLinks to most requested tax forms on IRS
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FIDELITY LOGIN
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AGENDA
TAX STATEMENTS
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AGENDA
TAX STATEMENTS
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UNTIL NEXT TIME…
Contact us today:Phone: 517-536-5000
Toll Free: 877-467-2367E-mail: [email protected]
Web: www.richmondbrothers.com