rick nye, populus: risky business - predicting the 2015 general election

PopulusRisky Business – Predicting the 2015 General Election

May 2014

The Signal & the NoisePublished National Opinion Polls GE2010 to date

May 10

July 10

August

10

October 1

0

November 1

0

January

11

March 11

April 11

June 11

August

11

Septe

mber 11

November 1

1

January

12

Febru

ary 12

April 12

June 12

July 12

Septe

mber 12

October 1

2

December 1

2

Febru

ary 13

March 13

May 13

July 13

August

13

October 1

3

December 1

3

January

14

March 14

May 14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

VAT TO 20% LOCALS 13OMNISHAMBLESEUROS &

LOCALS 14

Local Elections: National Equivalent Vote ShareThrasher & Rawlings

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

UKIP European Election v General Election PerformanceGB vote share

16%

2%

17%

3%

28%

?

2004 v 2005 2009 v 2010 2014 v 2015

Composition of UKIP European Election VoteLord Ashcroft Post European Election Poll (1200 UKIP voters)

52%

51%

0.15

0.21

0.18

0.11

0.1

0.14

2010 GE Vote

2015 Vot-ing Inten-

tion

Meanwhile in the marginalsLord Ashcroft Marginal Seats Poll (26,000 voters)

9% 22% 31% 13% 15% 9%

Tend to be older, more traditional voters who dislike the social & cultural changes they see as altering Britain for the worse.

ComfortableNostalgia

CosmopolitanCritics

Generally younger, more secular & urban-

based worried about growing inequality & the general direction the country is going

in.

OptimisticContentment

Confident, comfortable & usually on higher incomes

they are prudent & tolerant but think Britain is a soft

touch.

Many are serial strugglers; angry & alienated they feel little or no stake in the country or that anyone stands up for them.

Long-termDespair

Hard-PressedAnxiety

Pessimistic & insecure, these people want more help from government &

resent competition for that help particularly from new

comers.

Often coping rather than comfortable, they hope rather than expect things to get better.

CalmPersistence

A Different Way of Viewing the British ElectorateThe Portrait of Political Britain

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Comfortable Nostalgia










Comfortable NostalgiaComfortable

Nostalgia

LIB DEMS LABOURCONSER-VATIVES


Optimistic Contentment

Calm Per-sistence

Hard-pressed Anxiety

Long-term Despair

Cosmopolitan Critics

Party share of popular vote

Segm

ent s

hare

of p

arty

vot

eThe 2010 Voting coalitions

Base: All (4,088)

The Pollsters’ Nightmare The Eric Morecambe scenario

• PLAYING ALL THE RIGHT NOTES …

Predicting all parties’ vote shares correctly within the margin of error+/- 3%

• JUST NOT NECESSARILY IN THE RIGHT ORDER

Actual Order Predicted Order

CONS 37% 1st 35% 2nd

LAB 35% 2nd 37% 1st

UKIP 10% 4th 12% 3rd

LD 12% 3rd 10% 4th

Predictions

• Conservatives will be largest party in terms of votes

• Labour will end up as largest party in terms of seats

• Liberal democrats will end up with at least 13% vote share

• UKIP will end up with single figures vote share but with an MP

= POTENTIAL POLLSTERS’ DELIGHT: 2 GENERAL ELECTIONS IN THE SAME FINANCIAL YEAR

PopulusRisky Business – Predicting the 2015 General Election

May 2014

rick nye, populus: risky business - predicting the 2015 general election

News & Politics