ricky beggs editorial director · ricky beggs sr vp, editorial director [email protected]...
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Ricky Beggs Editorial Director · Ricky Beggs Sr VP, Editorial Director Rbeggs@BlackBookUSA.com 770.533.5221](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022071102/5fdb73b29316a9358134f38d/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
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Hybrids, Electrics and
Alternative Fuels:
Volumes, Values and Variances
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Gas at Annual Low
State & Federal Tax Incentives
Range Limitation
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Infrastructure
2013 new vehicle sales
avg MPG 24.1
Battery life
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$39,995 to $29,995
Mid-size ICE @ mid-30s MPG
ROI
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Headlines: Tricks or Treats?
• Va. Hopes to Double Alt-Fuel Infrastructure
• Fuel Economy Reaches All-Time High
• Gasoline Prices Fall to $3.12 Per Gallon
• Ford Lowers Price for 2015 Focus Electric
• As Gas Prices Drop, Hybrid Sales Shift Into Low Gear
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Headlines contd
• Hybrids or bi-fuel vehicles may work best in other areas
• Taxing Hybrids and Evs: a trick to going green
• Dealer lots loaded with hybrids and small cars
• Falling gas spooks alternative fuel into a tough sell
• Incentives ramp higher than ICE vehicles
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Alternative Penetration
Hybridcars.com
Hybridcars.comSep-14
Total sales CY 2014 CY 2013
Hybrid 356K 2.88% 3.32%
Plug-in 44K 0.36% 0.28%
Electric 44K 0.35% 0.30%
Diesel 109K 0.89% 0.82%
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Looking At Some Market Results
• Open market compared to Commercial Values
• ICE power vs Alternative trends
• Diesel retention
• Five year fuel savings and Cost of Ownership
• Where does the forecast lead
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More fuel efficient but drive less
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Higher new & used, open market
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Commercial fleet variance in $
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Used trends and new forecast
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Used trends and new forecast
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Used trends and new forecast Fusion: highest volume CV model
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Used trends and new forecast Hybrid CV better retention than open
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Used trends and new forecast
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Used trends and new forecast
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Used trends and new forecast CV and Open gap closes
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Diesel: New costs and retention 4 better than 100% of new cost @ 3 yrs
6@76% to 96%
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Seasonality consistent except for the
ghost and goblin economy
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Car: Alt, ICE, Segment
54%
50%
48%
50%
41%
51%
54%
51%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Volt EMC Cruze SCC Leaf SCC Versa ELC
2013 Volt/Cruze 2013 Leaf/Versa
Resid
ual P
erc
enta
ge o
f E
quip
ped R
eta
il
Hybrid vs. Gas, 36 Month Residual Forecast Segment Relationship
Volt has better forecast, No range anxiety
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Car: Alt, ICE, Segment
48% 47%
51% 50% 50%
53%
51%
46%
50%
53%
51% 50%
54%
51%
35%
45%
55%
65%
C-Max Focus SCC Prius V EMC Corolla SCC Prius EMC Corolla SCC Insight Civic SCC
2013 C-Max/Focus 2013 Prius V/Corolla 2013 Prius/Corolla 2013 Insight/Civic
Resid
ual P
erc
enta
ge o
f E
quip
ped R
eta
il
Hybrid vs. Gas, 36 Month Residual Forecast Segment Relationship
Only C-Max has higher residual forecast
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Mid-size: Alt, ICE, Segment
46% 48%
50%
48% 47%
50% 51% 52%
50%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
Fusion Hyb Fusion EMC Sonata Hyb Sonata UMC Camry Hyb Camry UMC
2013 Fusion 2013 Sonata 2013 Camry
Resid
ual P
erc
enta
ge o
f E
quip
ped R
eta
il
Hybrid vs. Gas, 36 Month Residual Forecast Segment Relationship
Mid size car segments, high volume and competitive
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Luxury: Alt, ICE, Segment
58%
56%
52%
47%
45%
52%
CT 200h IS 250 NLC MKZ Hyb MKZ NLC
2013 CT 200h/IS 250 2013 MKZ
Hybrid vs. Gas, 36 Month Residual Forecast Segment Relationship
Luxury hybrids better forecasts than ICE models
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Utility: Alt, ICE, Segment
60%
56% 56%
54%
60%
56%
45%
55%
65%
RX 450h RX 350 MXU Highlander Hyb Highlander MXU
2013 RX 400h/RX 450 2013 Highlander
Resid
ual P
erc
enta
ge o
f E
quip
ped R
eta
il
Hybrid vs. Gas, 36 Month Residual Forecast Segment Relationship
Lower volume RX450H Expected better retention
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Cost of Ownership & Fuel Savings
Vincentric
Vincentric
Fuel Savings: Hybrids vs ICE
Fusion $4,265
Sonata $2,672
RX350 $3,431
Q5 $3,169
One sedan & one utility with better Cost of Ownership
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Thank you!
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