Rising AsiaA Quarterly Magazine of CEAF

Issue - 8January-March, 2017

Striving for Asian Solidarity

Centre for East Asia Foundation (CEAF)Dhaka, Bangladesh

Rising AsiaRising AsiaA Quarterly Magazine of CEAF

Editorial Board Honorable Advisers

Prof. Selina MohsinFormer Ambassador

Dr. Afsarul QuaderFormer Secretary & Ambassador

Prof. Sukomal Barua PhDDepartment of Pali & Buddhist StudiesUniversity of Dhaka

Barrister Masudur RahmanLegal Adviser

Nasim MahmmudChief Editor

Mohammed MahmuduzzamanManaging Editor

Rumman Uddin AhamedAssociate Editor

Md. Abdul KhalekAssistant Editor

Hossen Shahid ShurawardyHead of Production

Md. Shahabur RahmanGraphic Designer

Published by:Centre for East Asia (Foundation), BangladeshHouse- 49, Road-1, Flat-3AB, Dhanmondi R/A, Dhaka-1205Cell: 01711 825799, 01977825799, 01715185125, 01195058354Email: ndipu1966@gmail.com, info@ceafasia.orgWebsite: www.ceafasia.org, www.risingasiabd.com

All Rights Reserved:No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form orby any means electronic, mechanical, recording or otherwise without prior permission of the publisher.

Disclaimer:All the information and opinions expressed in the magazine is that of authors’ own.The Centre for East Asia (Foundation) does not take any responsibility of its correctness whatsoever.

ContentsPage No.

Editor’s Note i

Russia and Bangladesh: 45 Years of Diplomatic Relations 1H.E. Alexander Ignatov

Vibrant Bangladesh is in the offing – War Veterans of 1971 echo 3Desk Report: CEAF

Strategic partnership of China-Russia to open new horizons 5Prof. Sarwar Md. Saifullah Khaled

Cross Border Trade on Electricity (CBTE) 7Engr. Sheikh Faezul Amin

ASEAN and Bangladesh 9Shahriar Feroze

Anandi’s quest for Bangla 11AKM Moinuddin

SPECIAL FEATURE:Russian Operation in Syria: One Year On 13TASS

SPOTLIGHT: China's Belt and Road Initiative promotes connectivity, development along ancient route 18Xinhua

Indo-Asia Connectivity for Shared Prosperity 20H.E. Richerd Verma

MIDDLE EAST: Iran's former president Rafsanjani’s death leaves power vacuum 24Carol Morello

Megathrust Earthquake in Bangladesh! Not Unlikely 26Dr. Syed Humayun Akhter

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Bangladesh’s Prospects and Possibilities 28Imran Choudhury

Future prospects for Caspian energy 30Dr. Stephen Blank

‘Thailand after King Bhumibol’ 32Thitinan Pongsudhirak

Editor’s Note

The year 2017 marks the 45th anniversary of the establishment of Bangladesh-Russia diplomatic relations. The former Soviet Union had been a strong sup-porter of the Bengali freedom fighters during the Bangladesh Liberation War in1971 and provided extensive aid to the new nation. The Soviet Union support-ed our reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts and the development of theeconomy. Some even died while clearing mines in Chittagong Port. We have notforgotten those precious supporters’ sacrifices. We expect Russia and Bangladeshgovernment will stress their commitment to develop mutually beneficial andcomprehensive cooperation, focusing on the long-term, diversified of bilateraltrade, increasing investment and establishing joint high-tech companies.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang expressed China’s ‘seriousconcern’ over the US President Trump’s remarks on Taiwan issue. Geng Shuang said, “I want to stress thatthe Taiwan issue concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and involves China’s core interests.”He also said, “Upholding the One China policy is the political basis for developing China-US ties.” OneChina policy is the political foundation of bilateral ties and “is nonnegotiable.” It must be pointed out thatthere is but one China in the World, and that Taiwan is an inalienable part of China.

China is not an ordinary loitering folk in a crowded bazaar, and Mr. Trump’s illogical assertions have con-sequences for regional and global peace and prosperity. Bilateral trade between the US and China was over$558 billion in 2015 while China remains the world’s largest holder of U.S. Treasury bonds- worth about$2 trillion. Taiwan’s reliance on China is even more profound, over two-fifth of all Taiwanese exports,worth about $130 billion per year, heads towards the Chinese mainland.

We do believe the China-US relationship has global and strategic significance. This not only concerns thehappiness of their people but also involves the peace, stability, development and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region and the rest of the world.

In ASEAN vision, the community will be based on three pillars, namely a security community, an econom-ic community and a socio-cultural community. In spite of all odds and expectations, the Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has managed to survive 50 years and going to celebrate its goldenanniversary in 2017.

Bangladesh’s growing economy coupled with its geographical proximity makes it a natural candidate for apartnership with ASEAN. The need has been clearly identified, and to add further, Bangladesh’s greaterengagement with ASEAN would provide a valuable hub to improve our existing regional connectivity withSouth and South-East Asia.

“Have an enriching and pleasant Chinese Lunar New Year of the Rooster. Happy New Year-2017.”

Warm RegardsNasim MahmmudChief EditorRising Asia Magazine (RAM)Email: ndipu1966@gmail.com

i

This year Russia andBangladesh celebrate the45th anniversary of estab-lishing diplomatic rela-tions. Russia was amongthe first countries to recog-nize Bangladesh as an inde-pendent state. Theexchange of the relevantnotes verbal took place onJanuary 25, 1972.

Separated by thousands of miles, Russia and Bangladeshhave different cultures and modes of life. However, ourcountries established cordial relations based on strongfriendship and mutual respect, which goes back to 1971when our country actively supported the struggle ofBangladeshi people for independence, including in theUN. After the Liberation War of Bangladesh, the former

USSR also assisted Bangladesh in joining the UnitedNations Organization.

In 1972-74, the Soviet Union helped Bangladesh in reviv-ing its economy. At that time, the first highest and high-level contacts took place between Russia and Bangladesh.In March 1972, Bangladesh Prime Minister SheikhMujibur Rahman visited the USSR where intergovern-mental agreements were signed on economic and techni-cal cooperation, trade and trade representation, culturaland scientific cooperation, on providing free assistanceto Bangladesh for restoring navigation in its seaports, aswell as on air connection between our countries. Duringthe first years of Bangladesh’s existence, Russia conduct-ed a minesweeping operation in the port of Chittagongand provided financial and technical assistance to buildpower plants “Ghorashal” and “Siddhirganj”, electricalequipment factory in Chittagong and other objects. Allof this constitute a solid basis of our bilateral relations.

1

Russia and Bangladesh: 45 Years of Diplomatic Relations

Alexander Ignatov

President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina.

Nowadays, cooperation between Russia and Bangladeshis developing in many spheres. Moscow and Dhaka sharecommon stance on the majority of international issuesand maintain regular political contacts. Economic collab-oration between our countries is on the rise.

Bilateral trade volume in 2015 has reached an impressiveUS$ 1.64 billion. According to the latest data of theRussian Federal Customs Service, the bilateral trade inJanuary-August of 2016 has exceeded US$ 750.5 million,which is higher than at the same period last year.

Bangladesh is in the process of solving its power deficitproblem to ensure smooth economic development aswell as well-being of its people. That is why the mostimportant field of Russian-Bangladeshi cooperation isenergy. Suffice it to mention that Russian StateCorporation Rosatom is constructing the first nuclearpower plant in Bangladesh - Rooppur NPP in Pabna.Meanwhile such Russian giants as GazpromInternational and Inter RAO-Engineering are also active-ly working with Bangladesh. They are engaged in gasextraction projects and modernization of power plants("Ghorashal" and "Siddirganj") respectively. We have anumber of joint economic projects in other sectors aswell.

An important field of our bilateral cooperation is educa-

tion. It provides a direct contribution to the develop-ment of Bangladesh human resources. Since the 1970s,over five thousand students from Bangladesh have grad-uated from Russian institutions of higher education. In2016, the Ministry of Education and Science of theRussian Federation allocated 50 full-paid scholarships,20 of them – for nuclear science.

It is inspiring to see the successes of Bangladesh in socialand economic spheres. It has achieved impressive growthrates, reduced poverty level and now has a real prospectof becoming a middle-income country in the near future.I believe that further development of trade and econom-ic ties between Russia and Bangladesh will both con-tribute to economic progress of Bangladesh and make apositive impact on Russian economy.

There is no doubt that the potential of Russia-Bangladesh economic, technological, scientific and cul-tural interaction is inexhaustible. I believe that in theyears ahead our countries will open up new horizons ofcooperation and convinced that the warm relationsbetween Russia and Bangladesh will become evenstronger.

H.E. Alexander Ignatov, Ambassador of the RussianFederation to the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.

2

QUOTABLE QUOTE

Veterans of India and Russia, who fought for liberatingBangladesh in 1971, have expressed high hopes regardingBangladesh’s ‘bright future’.

While addressing a reception accorded to their honourby Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina at her Gonobhabanresidence, the war veterans spoke highly of the ‘massivetransformation’ of Bangladesh in the areas of socioeco-nomic development, and wished every success of thecountry and its people.

A total of 29 war veterans of India and five from Russiaand their spouses arrived Dhaka to join the celebrationof 46th Victory Day of Bangladesh.

Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina thanked the war veteransof India and Russia for coming to Bangladesh on the eveof 46th Victory Day. She said, “We’ll always rememberthe contributions that you made 45 years back.” Leaderof the Indian delegation Lt. General (retd) GurbakshSingh Sihota and leader of Russian delegation VictorKozhurin, war veterans of India Brig (retd) BhanotMadan Mohan, Air Commodore (retd) Chandra MohanSingla and Vice Admiral (retd) Raman Prem Suthanspoke on the occasion.

Recalling the war in Bangladesh, Indian delegation headLt Gen (retd) GS Sihota said that, “as they landed inBangladesh, they saw a nation that has transformedbeyond words.”

Extending his heartfelt thanks to the Prime Minister forinviting them to join the victory day celebration, Lt. Gen.Sihota said that they brought greetings from everybody inIndia and also from the Defense Forces of India. “Wewant to wish prosperity to the nation,” he added.

Victor Kozhurin, Captain 2nd rank, who served as aSenior Engineer of the Special Expedition-12Engineering Service, led the delegation of Russian offi-cers shared his experience as a marine officer and men-tioned how he swept mines in the Chittagong Port afterthe liberation war. He presented a book to the PrimeMinister written in Russian language on mine sweepingoperation, titled “The Fairway is Clean Again”. Hewished to translate the book in Bangla and donated theproceedings of the book for the welfare activities of thepeople of Bangladesh

The Prime Minister said that after assassination of Fatherof the Nation Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujibur Rahman in

3

Vibrant Bangladesh is in the offing – War Veterans of 1971 echo

1975, the country’s people could not talk about the truehistory of war of liberation as it was totally distorted.After coming to power in 1996, her government startedthe process of remembering the foreign friends whomade immense contributions and sacrifices during thewar of independence. She also said, “Once upon a time,it was all banned. But now people especially the youngergeneration is very much enthusiastic and they want toknow the real history.” PM Hasina recalled the contribu-tions of India and Russia in rebuilding Bangladesh.

Recalling her memory in captivity during the war of lib-eration after Bangabandhu was arrested by the Pakistaniforces, Sheikh Hasina said usually they did not have theopportunity to come out of the room of the house whereshe along with other members of her family were heldcaptive. But, the premier recalled that when there wereair strikes, they could hear the sounds and could see a lit-tle bit coming out of their rooms staying in their housein Dhanmondi.

The Prime Minister said that in the early morning onDecember 17, an Indian Army team led by Major AshokTara came in that house and forced the Pakistani forces

to surrender and they were released.

Former Foreign Minister Dr Dipu Moni and MahjabeenKhaled, MP, also spoke on the occasion. Indian HighCommissioner to Bangladesh Harsh Vardhan Shringla,PM’s advisor on international affairs Dr Gowher Rizviand four serving military officers of India and officials ofthe India and Russian embassies and senior officials ofPrime Minister’s Office (PMO) were present.

Desk Report: CEAF

4

Russian delegation leader Captain Victor Kozhurin meets with Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina.

The year 2016 marked the15th anniversary of thesigning of the Treaty ofGood-Neighborliness andFriendly Cooperationbetween China and Russiaand the 20th anniversaryof the establishment ofstrategic cooperative part-nership between the twocountries. Relationsbetween China and Russia

have entered a new historical period of all-round, acceler-ated and healthy development with in-depth cooperationin various fields. The active cooperation between Chinaand Russia has been built on a solid foundation, whichenables the two nations to go forward with confidenceand open new horizons in the development of friendlyrelations.

During his visit to Moscow in May 2015, ChinesePresident Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpartVladimir Putin signed joint declarations on deepeningthe two sides' comprehensive partnership and coopera-tion within the framework of the initiative on the con-

struction of the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). This develop-ment marks a new historic start in the development ofbilateral relations, which has pointed out the directionfor not only further deepening of bilateral cooperation,but also development and prosperity across the Eurasiaregion.

After more than a year since the signing of the declara-tions, China and the EAEU have established close con-tacts and initiated a large-scale research. The SupremeEurasian Economic Council (SEEC) has adopted at itsrecent meeting a resolution on the initiation of formalnegotiations with China, which was a significant steptoward the alignment of the Belt and Road Initiativewith the EAEU. It can be expected that the start of con-structive cooperation and rapid elaboration of a systemictrade and investment plan will give a new impetus to thedevelopment of economic and trade ties of China withRussia as well as with the EAEU at large.

If China and Russia can successfully align their nation-al development initiatives with each other, they will beable to fully reveal the enormous hidden potential ofmutual complementarity of their economies. That willnot only be in the interest of developing China's western

5

Strategic partnership of China-Russia to open new horizons

Prof. Sarwar Md. Saifullah Khaled

regions and Russia's Far East, but will also contribute tothe economic recovery of Russia and economic transfor-mation of China. The quality of economic and tradecooperation between China and Russia has been con-stantly improving in recent years. China has become thebiggest trading partner to Russia and an importantsource of foreign investment in the country. And Russiais one of China's main sources of imports of energy andhigh technology.

Despite the impact of certain external factors and areduction in overall trade volume in recent years, thescope and quality of bilateral trade between the twocountries have not decreased in any way, but ratherincreased. In the year 2015, China imported over 40 mil-lion tons of crude oil from Russia, a 28 percent increasefrom the previous year 2014. China's imports of Russianindustrial equipment and high-tech products grew by32.1 percent and 34.2 percent, respectively. New areas ofcooperation, like cross-border electronic trade, are alsogaining traction with Russia becoming the second largestplayer in cross-border e-commerce with China. This givesa significant boost to the development of trade and econ-omy of both sides, and enriches the livelihood of the peo-ples of both nations.

In addition, major strategic projects between China andRussia, including the Eastern Route pipeline, coopera-tion in satellite navigation systems and joint develop-ment and production of long-haul wide-body aircraft,have greatly promoted the development of high technolo-

gies, bringing tangiblebenefits to the two peo-ples. Along with thedeepening cooperation,the social foundation forChina-Russia relationshas been further strength-ened. Successful activitieshave been held such asreciprocal years of lan-guages, tourism, friendlyyouth and mediaexchanges, mutual visitsof diplomats, journalists,students and so on, aswell as jointly-conductedart festivals, film weeksand media forums, withthe aim of furtherstrengthening mutualunderstanding and

friendship between the two people.

The development of China-Russia relations is inseparablylinked with the strategic aspirations of the leaders of bothcountries. For 21 years, the two sides have effectivelyimplemented a mechanism of regular meetings betweentheir government heads and numerous committees, sub-committees and working groups, which have coveredalmost all areas of bilateral cooperation. The 21st regularmeeting of the Chinese and Russian heads of governmentwas held on November 07, 2016, in St. Petersburg, Russia.

The official visit to Russia by Premier of the StateCouncil of the People’s Republic of China Li Keqiangcame at the invitation of Russian Premier DmitryMedvedev. The visit by Chinese Premier Li Keqiang toRussia for the 21st regular meeting of Chinese andRussian government heads was an opportunity for bilat-eral strategic cooperation at a higher level to bring abouteven more substantial results. The Premier Li Keqiangand Premier Dmitry Medvedev had detailed discussionsof the key issues of China-Russia trade, economic, invest-ment, energy, humanitarian, interregional and cross-bor-der cooperation. The prime ministers issued a joint com-munique summarising the talks. A package of intergov-ernmental, interdepartmental and corporate documentshad been prepared for signing.

Sarwar Md. Saifullah Khaled is a retired Professor ofEconomics, Bangladesh Civil Service (General Education) Cadre.

6

Energy is one of the keyinputs to socio-economicdevelopment of any coun-try. The South Asian regioncomprising Bangladesh,Bhutan, India, theMaldives, Nepal, Pakistanand Sri Lanka is a home of1.3 billion people close to aquarter of the World’s pop-ulation. The region is cur-rently experiencing a rapid

growth in energy demand, along with economic growthand industrialization. Despite the rapid growth in energydemand, the average per capita energy consumption, isslightly more than 300 kWh in the region is far below theWorld average of more than 2500 kWh. Also, the regionis far behind their counterparts in terms of access toclean, reliable, and affordable energy, especially electricity.Power shortages and the rising import of fossil fuelsimpose a heavy cost on energy security.

The energy endowments of South Asia (SA) are limitedand dispersed across the region, with large, unexploitedhydro-electric potential of about 150 GW (Giga Watt) insome parts and growing dependence on fossil fuels inothers. There is a need to plug the increasing gapbetween demand and supply through the developmentof additional resources. This is possible by utilizing theavailable energy resources efficiently, creating a level play-ing field, assuring returns to investors, and providing

affordable electricity to consumers. This will make theregion well developed and energy secured as well as self-sustainable. In view of that, the concept of Cross BorderTrade on Electricity (CBTE) has come into focus and iswell practiced across the different region of the world.

Cross-border trade in electricity is not quite like interna-tional trade in other commodities. It has some uniquecharacteristics: it is constrained to an integrated wide-area transmission grid. Electricity is traded mostly overrelatively short distances with nearby jurisdictions withinan integrated electrical transmission grid. Electricitytrade across borders is also two-way in many instances. Ajurisdiction may import and export electricity over thecourse of a year, a single day or even at the same time ifthere are multiple transmission lines across a border.

The Government of Bangladesh has outlined the Visionwith a target to make Bangladesh as a middle incomecountry by 2021 and developed country by 2041.Economic development and demand for electricity aredirectly proportional to each other. Consequently hugemulti-dimensional development activities has been takenup for Power Sector. According to the revised PowerSystem Master Plan-2016(PSMP-2016), 24,000 MW willbe generated by 2021, 40,000 MW will be generated by2030 and 60,000 MW will be generated by 2041. Due tothe depletion of natural gas reserves, the proposition ofprimary fuel-mix have been revised giving more impor-tance on Cross Border Trade on Electricity. Accordingly,4500 MW power should have to be imported from neigh-boring countries by 2030.

7

Cross Border Trade on Electricity (CBTE):A pathway for achieving economic development and energy security

Engr. Sheikh Faezul Amin

Inauguration through a Video Conference between Bangladesh & India

Inauguration through a Video Conference between Bangladesh, India and Tripura (a state of India)

Under the dynamic and charismatic leadership ofHon’ble Prime Minister Her Excellency Sheikh Hasina,power sector made new history on importation of 500MW electricity from Baharampur, India throughBheramara, Kustia 400 kV back to back HVDC link on5 October 2013.

The historic event was inaugurated through a VideoConference between Bangladesh and India whereHon’ble Prime Ministers of both the countries were pres-ent as chief guests. Further work on TransmissionNetwork up-gradation in both India and Bangladesh arein progress for enhancing exchange capacity to 1000MW.

Besides, 2nd Grid interconnection on 400 KV AC radi-al mode for importation of 100 MW was installedbetween Palatona, Tripura of India and Comilla,Bangladesh on 23 March 2016. The event was inaugurat-ed through a Video Conference among Bangladesh,India and Tripura, where Hon’ble Prime Ministers ofboth the countries and Chief Minister of Tripura werepresent as chief guests.

On the other hand, Cross Border Power exchangebetween Bhutan and India is going on. During wintermonths Bhutan draws power from India and in balanceperiod India draws power from Bhutan through itsHydro based Power Projects. It is a win-win situation forboth the countries. Moreover, Cross Border Powerexchange of approximately 330 MW between India andNepal is operational. Though bilateral cooperation ontrade in electricity among Bangladesh, Bhutan, Indiaand Nepal are operational, but simultaneously, huge

effort is going on to expedite the multilateral coopera-tion on trade in electricity among Bangladesh, Bhutan,India and Nepal.

But, countries have been traditionally reluctant to tradeelectricity across borders. Global exports of electricity are

currently around 3 percent of total production. This isan anomaly in the energy sector. In case of oil, roughly64 percent of all oil produced is traded between coun-tries.

In conclusion, increasing cross-border trade in electricitycan play a major role in helping overcome these chal-lenges. Trade in electricity in this region can help bringdown energy prices, mitigate against power shocks,relieve shortages, facilitate decarbonization, increasequality of life, ensure energy security and provide incen-tives for market extension and integration. It could alsohelp promote regional trade among neighboring coun-tries that are now going to extra-regional countries.

Engr. Sheikh Faezul Amin, Joint Secretary (Development),Power Division, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources,Government of the People’s Republic of Bangladesh.

8

Revised PSMP 2016:Proposition of Primary Fuel-Mix

HVDC opening ceremony held at Bheramara station of PGCB on 5 October 2013

Covering a land area ofapproximately 4.4 millionsquare kilometres –ASEAN (Association ofSoutheast Asian Nations)-Asia’s first regional organi-sation comprising tenSoutheast Asian states forpromoting intergovern-mental cooperation andfacilitates for economicintegration has gradually

appeared as a strong potential regional body. Rangingfrom tourism, monetary union, free trade agreements tofree flow of skilled labour and many - the coalition hasindeed achieved many feats from which we must draw les-sons. In many ways the organisation is a success story ofhow a regional alliance can collectively thrive regardlessof the principle of non-interference in domestic mattersof neighbouring states.

It is ASEAN’s guiding principle of “non-interference”which has often appeared captivating that comes with amultifaceted meaning. As per the clarity of its connota-tion, many scholars are of the opinion – While the prin-ciple of non-interference is adopted by many organiza-tions throughout the world and is enshrined in the UNcharter, what appears to be unique to ASEAN’s conductof regional relations is therefore not merely the adoptionof non-interference as a behavioural norm, but rather itsparticular understanding and subsequent practices ofthis norm. Moreover, despite the fact that theAssociation has made no attempt to define what it meansby ‘interference’. Though, as many speculate regionalpractice prior to the mid 1990s imply that it was con-strued as a continuum of involvement in the domesticaffairs of states that ranged from the mildest of politicalcommentary through to coercive military intervention.

May appear rather complex, but the principal seems tohave altered with the changes taking within the politicallandscapes of the member states. Nevertheless, ratheramazingly this often changeable attribute has allowed themember-states to concentrate on nation-building whilemaintaining cooperative ties with other states –some-

thing greatly missed within other Asian regional bodieslike the SAARC for instance.

Economically, a little over a year ago the organisation'scombined nominal GDP had grown to more thanUS$2.8 trillion. To make a comparison, If ASEAN werea single entity, it would rank as the sixth largest economyin the world, falling little behind the USA, China, Japan,Germany and the UK

However, in recent years common interests have come toplay a more important role in the association’s conductof regional affairs. Sadly, Bangladesh may not be a mem-ber state of ASEAN yet, but many important lessons canbe drawn by the SAARC countries regarding regionalcooperation. In an increasingly interconnected world fol-lowing expanded memberships, we believe, Bangladeshtoo has immense possibilities with a series of commoninterests with the ASAEAN countries to become an effec-tual member state in the future.

Physically ASEAN shares land borders with India,China, Bangladesh, East Timor, and Papua New Guinea,and maritime borders with India, China, and Australia.Both East Timor and Papua New Guinea are backed bycertain ASEAN members for their membership in theorganization. In fact, for its strategic geographical loca-tion and to link our sub-continent, Bangladesh couldwell be the bridge for an expanded ASEAN body.Additionally, it is felt by many, instead of a more region-

9

ASEAN and Bangladesh

Shahriar Feroze

al binding the organisation can focus towards a moreinterconnected Asia for addressing common challenges.

The rays of optimism shine bright with “ASEAN plusThree" goal to improve existing ties with the People'sRepublic of China, Japan, and South Korea. This was fol-lowed by the even larger East Asia Summit (EAS), whichincluded India, Australia, New Zealand, the UnitedStates, and Russia. This new group acted as a prerequisitefor the planned East Asia Community which was suppos-edly patterned after the now-defunct EuropeanCommunity. Bangladesh can however - both contributeas well as yield benefits in terms of enhancing its existingtrade, tourism and security ties with many of the ASEANnations.

Regarding trade and commerce, Like India & Pakistan,

Bangladesh too needsto come with its owntrade agreement withthe ASEAN.

At a smaller scale, theAsean DhakaCommittee (ADC) atthe Indonesianembassy in Dhaka wasestablished in 2013with the aim tostrengthen tiesbetween ASEAN andBangladesh. Also as anindirect involvementwith ASEAN,Bangladesh is a mem-ber of ASEAN regionalforum, with Laos sup-porting Bangladesh forits observer status.

The scheme to deepenour ties with theASEAN has begun at adiplomatic level too,when our foreign min-ister stressed on theneed for Bangladesh tointensify its political,economic and culturalconnectivity with theregional body duringthe 3rd ASEAN FlagRaising Ceremony last

year. Describing ASEAN as the most successful regionalgrouping in the developing world, our minister saidBangladesh's growing economy coupled with its geo-graphical proximity makes it a natural candidate for apartnership with it.

The need has been clearly identified, and to add further,Bangladesh's greater engagement with ASEAN wouldprovide a valuable hub to improve our existing regionalconnectivity with South and South East Asia.

Given all of the above facts a boost, we believeBangladesh will pursue to get even closer with ASEAN.

Shahriar Feroze is the deputy editor for the Daily NewNation, Bangladesh.

10

One may hardly find aBangla-speaking person inChina, the world’s mostpopulous country. But youwill surely get surprisedonce you visit the ChinaRadio International’s(CRI’s) headquarters inBeijing.

One will find a vibrantteam there who are spread-

ing Bangla language beyond the boundary through news,views and other programmes in Bangla.

These Chinese nationals speak Bangla so nicely that anynative speaker will be surprised with their choice of allcommon Bangla words and also the less used difficultones. Though they have Chinese names, each of themuses Bangla names, too so that they can communicatewith each other smoothly.

I met the 20-member team, including its leader YuGuangyue alias Anandi during my recent visit to China.They shared their immense affection for Bangla duringconversations with the visiting Bangladesh delegationcomprising members of think thanks and media.

Sharing stories about her deep affair with Bangla,Anandi said she studied at the Institute of ModernLanguages under Dhaka University for three years a cou-ple of decades back.

“I joined the CRI in 1995 and became Director of itsBangla Department in 2003,” Anandi said.

She said it is rare to find Bangla-speaking people in China

and most of them work in Bangla Department of the CRI.

Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Bangladesh inOctober, 2016 and he wrote an article for Bangladeshimedia marking his historic visit. Anandi translated thearticle into Bangla which was published in a leadingBangla daily.

“I’m delighted to be part of it. Through this translationI think Bangladeshi people could easily understandChina’s top leader’s messages,” Anandi said.

She said they are aware of rapid changes in the media land-scape and laid emphasis on mobile journalism. “It’s not onlyimportant for you, but also for us. I think it will be good forus to have similar workshop on mobile journalism.”

Referring to CRI Vice President Xia Jixuan’s visit toBangladesh with the Chinese President, Anandi said,“He came from Bangladesh with high hopes. We seescopes for greater collaboration with Bangladeshi mediaoutlets in the coming days.”

Earlier, the Bangladesh delegation, led by formerBangladesh high commissioner to the Maldives ProfSelina Mohsin met CRI Vice President in Beijing anddiscussed various issues of mutual interests.

Xia Jixuan laid emphasis on strengthening cultural andpeople-to-people contact between the two countries,including collaboration among media outlets from thetwo countries.

CRI started its journey on December 3, 1941 and now itruns programmes across the world in 65 languages,including Bangla. It started its Bangla programmes onJanuary 1, 1969 and Bangladeshi listeners in Dhaka,

11

Anandi’s quest for Bangla

AKM Moinuddin

Chittagong and other parts of the country can hear theprogrammes.

On November 1, 2004, CRI launched its Bangla website.Currently, CRI Bangla Department has 14 Bangla-speak-ing Chinese nationals and four Bangladesh nationals.

Year of Friendship and Exchanges:

As developing countries, Bangladesh and China sharethe same desire for a better future for people of the twocountries. “If two people are of the same mind, theirstrength can cut through metal.” This old Chinese sayingshows the power of cooperation and concerted efforts.

China, today, is leading the world in many areas.Bangladesh and China are time-tested friends and therelations between the two countries are developing on allfronts. There is no problem between the two countriesbut have deep friendship, cooperation and mutual trust.Two countries achieved a lot in last decades.

At the invitation of Md. Abdul Hamid, President of thePeople’s Republic of Bangladesh, Xi Jinping, President ofthe People’s Republic of China, paid a state visit toBangladesh on 14-15 October 2016. The visit has ush-ered the traditional friendship between China andBangladesh into a new era and bears significant histori-cal importance to the bilateral relationship.

Bangladesh and China, after official talks between XiJinping and Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina last year,signed over two dozens of MoUs and agreements inDhaka. Of the signed documents, 15 were government-to-government MoUs and deals, while 12 loans andmutual deals.

The two countries signed documents of cooperation inareas such as: cooperation in the Belt and RoadInitiative, industrial capacity building, power and energy,information and communication technology, invest-ment, maritime cooperation, disaster management andcultural and people-to-people contacts.

The two sides agreed to maintain military cooperationand exchanges at various levels and deepen cooperationin areas such as personnel training, equipment and tech-nology and UN peacekeeping missions.

More interestingly, Bangladesh and China have dedicat-ed 2017 as the ‘Year of Friendship and Exchanges’between the two countries as they are now headingtowards a ‘promising future’. This is a positive sign of thegrowing engagement between our two countries.

During his stay in Dhaka, Chinese President Xi Jinping

said many colorfulevents will be heldin the year to carryforward to friend-ship betweenBangladesh andChina.

The two sidesagreed to strength-en cultural andpeople-to-peopleexchanges, andcarry forward thetraditional friend-ship between thetwo countries.

Both sides agreedto expandexchanges andcooperation in cul-ture, education, tourism and other fields, and to pro-mote interactions between the media, think tanks,youths, women organisations, non-governmental groupsand local authorities of the two countries. Bangladeshand China agreed to implement the annual action planunder the framework of the Executive Programme of theCultural Agreement between the two countries.

China will train 500 Chinese-language teachers forBangladesh, train 100 Bangladeshi cultural professionals,and invite 600 Bangladeshi students to visit China dur-ing 2016 to 2020.

The two countries are now happy over the traditionalfriendship and fast development of bilateral cooperation.It is true that the cooperation between China andBangladesh, two developing countries with large popula-tions, and their common development and prosperity areconducive to the improvement of the welfare of the twopeoples. The cooperation will also promote the develop-ment of the region and the self-relied growth of develop-ing countries.

The historic visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping hasopened doors for further cooperation between the twocountries. We hope Bangladesh-China relationship willgrow further in the coming days.

AKM Moinuddin is a Diplomatic Correspondent at UnitedNews of Bangladesh (UNB).

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The start of Russia’s military campaign in Syria a yearago came as a total surprise to the international commu-nity. Except for the 1999 incident in Kosovo, in which apeace-keeping force of Russian paratroops outpacedNATO to gain control of Pristina Airport, Moscow hasnot participated in military operations outside itsnational territory ever since the last Soviet soldier leftAfghanistan in 1989. Even though it agreed to throw its

weight behind the campaign against Al-Qaeda inAfghanistan, which the United States launched in 2001,Russia confined itself to political and logistics supportfor the Western coalition. Small wonder, therefore, theRussian leadership’s announcement it was beginning amilitary campaign in Syria and the rapid redeploymentof an air group to that country left foreign audiencesdumbfounded.

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Russian Operation in Syria: One Year OnWhat aims did Russia pursue? What has it achieved so far? And what was it that surprised the international community the most? Find the answers

to these questions in this special feature by TASS

Special Feature

Why did Russia launch the military operation in Syria?

Syria’s never-ending chaos posed a direct threat toRussia. According to statistics disclosed by secret servic-es, up to 2,500 Russian citizens and some 3,000 citizensfrom the other CIS member-states had been involved inIslamic State operations in Iraq and Syria by the autumnof 2015. The flow of recruits continued unabated. Therisk they might start returning to their home countriessomeday was high.

Back in June 2015 President Putin declared it was essen-tial to create an international coalition against theIslamic State on the following principles.

It should incorporate all countries of the region, firstand foremost, those who fight the Islamic State onthe ground (Syrian and Iraqi armies and the Kurdishmilitias).

The coalition was to have the approval of the UNSecurity Council and/or legitimate governments ofthe countries where the operations would be con-ducted.

By that time the US-led coalition had been conductingmilitary operations in the territory of Iraq and Syria fortwelve months already without having either the UN

Security Council’s consent or the approval of Damascus.But the Islamic State remained on the offensive. As amatter of fact, after losing some ground in Iraq the ter-rorists put the emphasis on Syria. By May 2015 theIslamic State had gained control of 50% of Syria’s terri-tory and of the main road leading to Damascus. With ahigh degree of probability the Syrian capital’s hypotheti-cal fall would entail the loss of the whole of Syria andeventually Lebanon. Christians, Alawites and otherminorities would face the risk of utter annihilation,while the Islamic State would have gained access to vasteconomic resources. The terrorists’ ambitions as they are,their clash with Russia would be imminent in any case,with Russia’s starting positions being far worse than theylooked just recently.

For several months Russia was trying to persuade theWest to clinch a deal with the Syrian authorities, becausewithout their support fighting the Islamic State on theground would make no sense. Nothing came of it,though. In the end, the Syrian government turned toRussia with a request for help. Moscow agreed to start amilitary operation.

The Russian authorities repeatedly emphasized the ideatheir paramount goal was to preserve the basics of Syria’s

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Facts and figures about the Russian Aerospace Force’s operation in Syria On September 30, 2015 Russia’s Federation Council (the upper house of the two-chamber parliament) voted insupport of President Vladimir Putin’s request for permission to use the national armed forces in Syria againstthe Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra (terrorist groups outlawed in Russia)

The Russian Aerospace group dealt the first strikes against the militants’ positions later in the day.

Initially, the group consisted of 50 combat planes and helicopters. In November 2015 Russia’s long-rangebombers started flowing sorties to Syria.

With time Russia’s Navy was involved in the operation as well. Combat ships in the land-locked CaspianSea and in the Mediterranean Sea launched cruise missiles.

On March 15, the main contingent of the Russian Aerospace group began to be pulled out of Syria onPresident Putin’s orders, while the Russian support facilities in Tartus and at the air base Hmeymim havemaintained routine operation ever since. The remaining Russian planes continued to provide combatsupport for Syrian troops.

According to May 2016 statistics more than 10,000 sorties had been carried out and 30,000 targets, includ-ing 200 oil extraction and refining facilities, were wiped out.

The Pentagon estimates that by that time the Islamic State militants lost 45% of the territory they had con-trolled in Iraq and 20% of the territory in Syria. The Syrian army regained Palmyra to turn the tide of thecampaign. TheRussianmilitaryparticipatedintheoperation.

Russia has airlifted to Syria 1,000 tonnes of foods, medical supplies and essentials.

statehood, and not keep President Bashar Assad inpower at any cost.

Western criticism

Public opinion in the West was generally negative aboutRussia’s military operation.Westernmediacriticismwasconfinedtotwoarguments.

Russia is allegedly fighting not against Islamic terror-ists but against the moderate political opposition.

Moscow decided to meddle for the sake of savingAssad.

A year later the Western establishment’s stance shows nofundamental change. But the Syrian president’s future isno longer an issue of paramount importance in discus-sions over the crisis in that country. As for the questionwho fights whom in Syria, there still remains great confu-sion who should be branded terrorist and who belongs tothe armed opposition.

Local groups keep changing disguises like chameleons tovow allegiance to anyone who may come their way, whileWashington keeps arguing with Russia.

Russian Armed Forces turn out effective

Whatever criticism Russia has faced so far and may stillhear in the future, most leading Western media did nothesitate to put its operation in Syria on the list of lastyear’s top events.

Regardless of their attitude to the air campaign Westernpoliticians, pundits and journalists agree the Russian mil-itary has changed beyond recognition. In particular, theypointed to smooth coordination, advanced hardware andeffective strikes against the terrorists. All that was unani-

mously interpreted as evidence the military reform hasborne fruit.

In Syria, many Russian air pilots have gained combatexperience. Long-range strategic aircraft and submarine-and surface ship-launched missiles were used in real com-bat for the first time. The fire power of Russian weapon-ry impressed potential customers. Until just recently ithad been maintained that Russia was unable to conductany major military operations far away from its borders.In March 2016, the overall value of weapons export con-tracts soared to $56 billion - a record-high since 1992.

Russia avoids another Afghanistan

In February 2016, US President Barack Obama claimedthat Russia would get bogged down in Syria precisely theway the Soviet Union in its day was stalled inAfghanistan. A large-scale operation on the ground andsuch adverse side effects as soaring costs and casualtiesand undesirable political developments at home weresaid to be more than guaranteed. A month later, though,the Russian president ordered the withdrawal of the bulkof the Russian contingent from Syria. Gloom propheciesthe involvement of a ground contingent would ensueturned out wrong. Russia had derived proper lessonsfrom the Soviet Union’s Afghan experience and also theexperience of the United States and its allies inAfghanistan and Iraq. It confined itself to air support,while the presence and role of special operations forcesand military advisers remained limited. The task of thecommando units was to conduct reconnaissance ofpotential targets for air strikes and to direct planes to tar-gets in remote areas, while the Syrian army was fightingon the ground. With Russian air support it managed tolaunch a counteroffensive. In the meantime, the United

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States has failed to identify any reliable allies on theground in Syria. The armed opposition it supports ispatchy and uncontrollable.

With Russia’s involvement in the military operation inSyria the diplomatic process went into high gear. InFebruary 2016, a ceasefire agreement was concluded butthe Islamic State and Jabhat al-Nusra were identified asparties that remaining outside its framework. TheUnited States and Russia pledged to monitor the situa-tion. Two weeks later Moscow made a decision to removeits main forces from Syria.

The Russian operation lasted five months and fourteendays to have cost an estimated $2.8 million a day. In con-trast the United States is spending about $11.9 million aday to fight against the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq.

Putin has restored Russia to the position of a key actor inthe region and he did so at a very moderate cost, analystssay.

Russia’s Rambo

The name of Russian officer Alexander Prokhorenko fea-tured in Western media headlines last spring probablymore often than in Russian ones. Senior lieutenant ofthe special operations force died a hero near Palmyra onMarch 24, 2016 while directing strikes by Russian aircraftagainst terrorist targets. When he realized he had beenspotted and surrounded, Prokhorenko called in anairstrike on himself as the enemy was about to seize him.

A real hero, Russia’s Rambo, as many media said.

Career military around the world did not hesitate to paytheir last respects to Prokhorenko and his courage. In aFacebook community for US military there appeared atranscript of Prokhorenko’s last conversation with hiscommander seconds before the surrounded officer urgedan air strike on the position he was taking. The transcriptappeared in the world web through unofficial channels.

Praying for Palmyra

Three days after Prokhorenko’s death the Syrian Army’scommand said the Syrian military and people’s militiashad regained full control of Palmyra. Russian planes flewabout 500 sorties during the battle for that city.

On the same day President Putin told UNESCO’sDirector-General Irina Bokova by telephone the Russiancontingent would participate in a mine-clearing opera-tion in the city featuring on UNESCO’s world heritagelist. By the end of April the road to Palmyra reopened toUNESCO’s researchers and specialists, who had formore than a year been watching Palmyra’s horribleplight.

On May 5, in the ancient outdoor theater the IS terror-ists had been using as a site for mass executions, theMariinsky Theater’s orchestra under conductor ValeryGergiyev gave a unique performance titled Praying forPalmyra.

Although many Western media reported the concertwith a great deal of skepticism, few doubted thatPalmyra’s liberation was Russia’s major military andimage-bolstering victory. Some watched the performancewith tears in their eyes. Italian Prime Minister MatteoRenzi said the concert demonstrated that Russia andEurope shared common values, such as the greatness ofhuman dignity.

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Russia casts a protective veil over Syria’s Christians

Russia’s efforts to protect the Christian population ofSyria drew the European media’ special interest. Whilethe Russian operation was still in the early phase,Western media made attempts to lend a negative flavorto Russia’s role in the Middle East, prompting allusionsto the era of crusades. In due course, though, Moscowbegan to be referred to as the sole force in the wholeworld that threw the spotlight on the need for taking careof Syria’s Christians.

Local residents – Christians, experts and Western andSyrian priests – unanimously express this opinion to themedia.

The rendezvous Patriarch of Moscow and All RussiaKirill and Pope Francis had in Cuba played an importantrole to draw worldwide attention to this issue.

What has Russia achieved?

Has the situation in Syria changed to any significantextent over the twelve months since the military opera-tion began?

On the one hand, the Islamic State’s onslaught has beenthwarted. The process of local reconciliations is proceed-ing. Armed opposition members achieve more negotiat-ed solutions with the authorities on leaving the zone ofcombat operations and laying down part of their arma-ments. On the other hand, the fundamental truce agree-ments continue to be violated.

One year after the question of concerted action by allforces involved in the war on terror in Syria is still rele-

vant. The main problem is the mediators distrust eachother.

Washington has groundlessly accused Russia and theSyrian army of attacking a humanitarian UN convoy nearAleppo. It is noteworthy this happened just a couple ofdays after the United States erroneously hit the Syrianarmy’s positions near Deirez-Zor.

Both incidents caused another disruption of ceasefire. AsRussia’s UN envoy VitalyChurkin has said, now it wouldbe possible to discuss the restoration of truce only on thecollective basis.

In a situation like this the chances of prompt stabiliza-tion in Syria look slim.

The Russian military has coped with its task and helpedthe Syrian army stop a major Islamic State offensive. Butif no diplomatic backup follows and if the US-Russianagreements on coordinating the struggle with terroristsin Syria remain just a sheet of paper, the march of eventsmay turn for the worse again. The conflict in Syriaadmits of no solution from the position of strength.Only joint efforts can succeed. Russia has been sayingthis all the time from the very first day the Syrian conflictflared up.

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QUOTABLE QUOTE

More than three years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinpingproposed to build the Silk Road Economic Belt and the21st-Century Maritime Silk Road.

Looking back at 2016, the Belt and Road Initiative hasgained fruitful early achievements, promoting connectiv-ity and opening up possibilities and potentials for devel-opment along the ancient trade route.

SILK ROAD ECONOMIC BELT STRINGS ROADSTOGETHER

One day in golden October in Kashgar of China'sXinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, a fleet of 50trucks of a joint trade convoy carrying large containersstarted to roll along the China-Pakistan EconomicCorridor (CPEC).

After passing the Pamirs, crossing the Har goolunRange, and threading Pakistan's western region, the fleetfinally arrived at its destination -- the Gwadar Port ofPakistan, concluding its 3,115-km journey in a month.

The containers carried by the fleet were shipped to theUnited Arab Emirates and other countries, marking theGwadar port's first export of containers to overseas des-tinations, and showing that the port has restored thedesigned handling capacity.

Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif said that CPECis destined to transform the entire country and open upa world of possibilities for not just Pakistan but alsoCentral Asian states.

In February 2016, China Railway Tunnel Group com-pleted building the Qamchiq Tunnel in Uzbekistan, thelongest tunnel in Central Asia. It is part of the 169-kmAngren-Pap railway line, a major state project. Aftercompletion of the rail line, Uzbekistan's domestic trans-port will no longer have to go through foreign territo-ries.

"If we say 2013 is the year of proposal, 2014 is the year ofguideline, 2015 is the year of top-level design, then 2016is the year of implementing landmark projects of theBelt and Road Initiative," said Zhao Lei, a professor atChina's Central Party School. "Many European coun-tries have high approval rates on the Belt and RoadInitiative."

Perhaps the busy-running China-Europe trains give the

best illustration to people's acceptance. Since the Beltand Road proposal, trains running between Europe andChina have been burgeoning. By June 2016, trains hadbeen running nearly 2,000 times between China andEurope, with a total of import and export value of 17 bil-lion U.S. dollars.

Many other projects are also under way. The China-Belarus industrial park is in development, the Hungary-Serbia railroad is to be constructed by the Chinese sidesoon, cooperation between China and Central andEastern European countries has been further expanded.

The Silk Road Economic Belt, with a nature of inclu-siveness and openness, has become a vital link connect-ing regional development and China's transformation.

21ST CENTURY MARITIME SILK ROAD CON-NECTS ROADS AND PORTS

In October 2016, the contract for the second phase ofthe China-Laos railway project was signed in Lao capitalof Vientiane.

Kicked off in late 2015, the construction of the projectis expected to be completed in five years. Upon comple-tion of the railway, a trip from Vientiane to the Chineseborder will take only four hours, turning Laos from alandlocked country into a land-linked nation.

On Jan. 21, 2016, at the ground-breaking ceremony ofthe Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway, IndonesianPresident Joko Widodo launched the country's first everhigh-speed railway project in Walini, West Java Province.

With a maximum design speed of 350 km per hour, thetravel time between Jakarta and Bandung will be cut

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China's Belt and Road Initiative promotes connectivity,development along ancient route

Spotlight

from over three hours to less than one hour once theproject is finished.

The Belt and Road Initiative provides opportunities notonly for a new round of China's opening-up, but also forthe growth of world economy.

On Aug. 10, 2016, Chinese shipping giant COSCOacquired 67 percent stake of Piraeus Port Authoritythrough the Athens Stock Exchange, officially becomingthe controlling shareholder of the Greek port. Piraeus isexpected to operate as a hub in Europe for the 21stCentury Maritime Silk Road, and to connect the SilkRoad Economic Belt with the China-Europe Land-SeaExpress Line. According to Chinese ambassador toGreece Zou Xiaoli, Piraeus was not merely an economicproject, but also a bridge to connect the peoples ofGreece and China.

In Africa, the Chinese-built Ethiopia-Djibouti railwayhas officially opened service, marking a milestone incooperation between China, Ethiopia and Djibouti.

In Cambodia, the Sihanoukville Special Economic Zonehas attracted hundreds of enterprises, providing a modelof China-Cambodia cooperation under the Belt andRoad Initiative.

In Myanmar, a consortium of six foreign companies ledby China's CITIC has won two bids to build an indus-trial park and a deep-sea port in the Kyaukpyu SpecialEconomic Zone in Rakhine State, which will improvethe country's infrastructure, local people's employmentand livelihood.

In Sri Lanka, the green light has been given to thedelayed Colombo Port City. Through the Maritime SilkRoad, China will support the country in becoming ashipping, logistics and even financial hub in the IndianOcean.

A CHINESE MATTER, ALSO A WORLD MATTER

It has been nearly two years since the Chinese-ownedcompany Southeast Asia Telecommunications enteredthe Cambodian market. With an investment of 150 mil-lion U.S. dollars, a fiber network extending 10,000 km,and over 1,000 base stations, the company has improvedthe efficiency of communications in Cambodia, and wasspoken highly of by Cambodian Prime Minister HunSen. Apart from opening up a new market in Cambodiawith the dedication to high-speed Internet and high-quality phone calls, the company is also shoulderingsocial responsibility by launching the Youth Sci-TechEducation Base and the Cloud Data Center.

"Previously, people saw most 'Belt and Road' programsin areas such as energy and infrastructure. In 2016, coop-eration between China and those countries along theroutes have been expanded to education, culture, med-ical care and telecommunications," said Zhao of theCentral Party School. If the "hard connection" of theBelt and Road draws countries geographically closer,then the "soft connection" brings people together. Tillnow, over 100 countries and international organizationshave expressed willingness to actively support and jointhe initiative, 40 of which have signed cooperation dealswith China.

In 2017, a Belt and Road summit will be held to furthermap out the blueprint of the initiative, explore businessopportunities and deepen alignment of developmentstrategies between China and the relevant parties. OnJune 22, 2016, during a speech at the LegislativeChamber of the Uzbek Supreme Assembly in Tashkent,Xi called for building a green, healthy, intelligent andpeaceful Silk Road, laying out the future of the initiative.

According to Huang Rihan, Executive Director of theBelt and Road Institute at the Center for China andGlobalization think tank, a green Silk Road urges envi-ronmental protection and intensive cultivation for sus-tained development.

A healthy Silk Road means closer cooperation in med-ical care and health among related countries. An intelli-gent Silk Road calls for people cultivation andexchanges. A peaceful Silk Road aims at implementing acommon, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainablesecurity concept in Asia, then promoting world peaceand stability, Huang added.

While addressing the Uzbek Parliament, Xi invitedother countries to attend the 2017 Belt and Road sum-mit. The summit will not only look back at the fruitfulharvest made so far under the initiative, but also set upa new starting point for the future, observers said.

"The Belt and Road Initiative will not be a flash in thepan, nor will it be formalism," said Zhao, "China will godeep with the initiative and turn it into real benefits."

"The agreement reached in November, 2016 by the UNGeneral Assembly to further promote the Belt and RoadInitiative worldwide shows that its construction involvesnot just China, but also countries along the routes andthe world at large," said Wang Yiwei, a professor atRenmin University of China.

Source: Xinhua

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It’s a pleasure to be here inKolkata, the “City of Joy.”When Mark Twain visitedthis marvelous city in 1896,he wrote in his diary“There was plenty to see inCalcutta, but there was notplenty of time for it.” Ishare the feeling, which iswhy I’m back for the sec-ond time this month!

I first want to thank our Consul General in Kolkata,Craig Hall, and his wonderful team at the AmericanConsulate, which as many of you know is one of theUnited States’ oldest consulates in the world. PresidentWashington sent the first American consul here 224years ago, so Craig has a long line of illustrious predeces-sors to live up to. Craig represents the very finest of theForeign Service and his team here has done a wonderfuljob. Hosting a conference with over 200 attendees is nosmall feat!

I also want to welcome our outstanding Ambassadorsfrom the region: Alaina Teplitz from Nepal, and MarciaBernicat from Bangladesh. We’re very lucky to have suchtalented envoys in South Asia and we appreciate themtaking time out of their busy schedules to join us today.I want to acknowledge the many senior government offi-cials here from the United States, India, Bangladesh,Nepal, Myanmar, and Sri Lanka. Thank you for joiningus. I am also grateful to the Consumer Unity & TrustSociety (CUTS) and the East-West Center whose supportmade this conference possible.

This is my second time attending a conference on Indo-Pacific connectivity in Kolkata. Situated on the littoralof the Bay of Bengal and the Indian Ocean, Kolkata haslong been a driver of regional and international trade. Itis also a city which shares a unique history with theUnited States. In the early 19th century, American shipscarrying ice from New England were a common sight inthe city ports. In fact, Henry David Thoreau once wit-nessed the ice being transported while at Walden Pond,and wrote “The pure Walden water will be mingled with

the sacred waters of the Ganges.” In 1879, after leavingoffice, President Ulysses S. Grant visited this city on atour around the world, becoming the first Americanpresident to visit India. And during World War II, thou-sands of young American service members deployed tonortheastern India under General Joseph Stillwell andmany received their first glimpse of the country here inKolkata. I had the honor of visiting the CommonwealthCemetery in Kohima-Nagaland earlier this month as areminder of the enormous sacrifices made during thatperiod. General Stillwell was something of a visionarywhen it comes to regional connectivity – the StillwellRoad, which ran from Assam all the way to China, wasconstructed under his leadership during World War II.So by virtue of history and geography, I think it’s quitefitting we’re holding a conference on regional connectiv-ity in this wonderful city.

A Common Vision for Connectivity

Not far from Kolkata, more than two millennia ago, theseeds that would bring this region together were plantedduring a teaching delivered at Sarnath. Before there weretrunk roads and broadband connections, this region wasfirst connected by ideas. The teachings of GautamaBuddha united the people of Asia, from the Swat Valleyin Pakistan to Japan, in debates over how to bring peaceand fulfillment to all peoples, regardless of nationality,class or origin. This philosophy was revolutionary and itspower transformed Asia. This millennia long traditionof intellectual and cultural connectivity, and a regionthat has long been accustomed to sharing and exchang-ing new ideas, is the most fertile ground possible onwhich to build a new architecture for the 21st century.

Whether it’s in trade, energy, water, or people-to-peopleties, connectivity is critical to South Asia’s future devel-opment. Take trade as an example. According to theWorld Bank, if barriers were removed and customs pro-cedures streamlined, intra-regional trade in South Asiacould increase from the current $28 billion to over $100billion. Unfortunately, South Asia today is one of theleast economically integrated regions in the world; intra-regional trade as a percentage of total trade in the region

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Highlights of the Keynote Speech by the US Ambassador to IndiaH.E. Mr. Richerd Verma on “Indo-Asia Connectivity for Shared

Prosperity” in Kolkata on December 15, 2016.

has languished between four and five percent. Comparethat to ASEAN where intra-regional trade stands at 25percent.

We know from history this wasn’t always the case. As Inoted, this region was an integrated entity, bound by arich tradition of dialogue, trade, and cultural exchange.The famous Grand Trunk Road, stretching more than1500 miles from Kolkata to Kabul was, in the words ofRudyard Kipling, a “river of life”. So if connectivity wasa reality for this region in the past, we know it can beagain in the future. What is required for it to take rootonce again is a common vision that takes into confidencethe region’s stakeholders. The Grand Trunk Road of the21st century is as much about ideas and shared values asit is physical infrastructure. I will return to this in amoment.

Let me say a few words about India and the unique roleit’s playing in the region’s economic integration, boththrough traditional infrastructure development and alsothrough its leadership as a democratic power. Under its“Neighborhood First” policy, the Government of Indiahas initiated a series of projects related to energy,hydropower, and transportation in Nepal, Bangladesh,Sri Lanka, and Bhutan. India’s resolution of territorialdisputes with Bangladesh and Burma stands as an exam-ple of its commitment to international norms andregional stability. And through the Bay of BengalInitiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and EconomicCooperation (BIMSTEC), the countries of the regionhave reenergized efforts to build linkages between Southand Southeast Asia. I’d like to thank Mr. SumithNakandala, the Secretary General of BIMSTEC, and Mr.Prashant Agrawal, Joint Secretary for SAARC in theIndian Ministry of External Affairs, for joining us today.

Northeast India

Nowhere are the challenges and potential for connectivi-ty more real than in northeast India, a region that ishome to some 45 million people and more than 200tribes, and, more importantly, one of Asia’s most strate-gic crossroads; bordering Bangladesh, Bhutan, China,Myanmar, and Nepal. I had the privilege of travelingthroughout northeast India earlier this month, coveringthe states of Tripura, Manipur, Nagaland, Meghalaya,and Assam. I have visited 27 of India’s 29 states and canattest the northeast is a region unlike any other in thisdiverse country with its stunning beauty, industriouspopulation, and remarkable blend of culture, language

and tradition. And while the connectivity challenges arereal, there are also important success stories and exam-ples of what expanded connectivity can look like.

In Tripura, I toured a gas-fired power plant that is utiliz-ing General Electric turbines to export 100 MW ofpower to neighboring Bangladesh. Another 100 MW inexport capacity is expected to come on-line soon. I visit-ed the Agartala-Akhaura border crossing, the secondlargest trading point between India and Bangladesh, withcross-border trade amounting to over $60 million.Meghalaya is home to some of the region’s finest educa-tional institutions, nurturing bright minds not only fromIndia’s northeast but from neighboring countries aswell. Nagaland has embarked on a program to nurturethe next generation of entrepreneurs in the region, lever-aging innovation and technology to overcome develop-mental challenges. And Manipur and Mizoram have thepotential to become gateways between India andMyanmar once local road and rail connectivity projectsare completed.

I also however witnessed the daunting challenges facingthis region. With its stunning mountains and jungletopography, much of the Northeast presents real chal-lenges in the building of traditional infrastructure.Simply moving from one state to another can be a chal-lenge. And while air connectivity has improved dramati-cally, many travelers must use Kolkata or Guwahati ashubs due to limited inter-state flights. With multiplestates, countries and sometimes contradictory rules forthe movement of goods and people, the regulatory andlegal framework can also pose a burden. And ironically,some cross-border threats like disease, human traffickingand drugs, can often flow easily across states and coun-tries, giving rise to multiple health and security chal-lenges. The HIV prevalence rate, for instance, in parts ofthe northeast can be twice as high as the national average.

But despite these challenges, I came away from my visitheartened, inspired and optimistic about the region’sfuture. With a young and talented population, this is aregion with vast potential that is already rolling out newand innovative solutions in clean energy, commerce, andeducation.

The United States – A Partner for Connectivity

Let me also say a few words about the role the UnitedStates is playing in spurring regional connectivity. Withmore than $130 billion in annual trade with South Asia,the United States has a vital interest in a region that is

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prosperous and interconnected. Through the Indo-Pacific Economic Corridor, or IPEC, we’re helping cre-ate new energy linkages, open up trade and transport cor-ridors, and streamline customs procedures at bordercrossings. USAID’s work with SARI, the South AsiaRegional Initiative, includes an energy integration proj-ect aimed at bolstering cross-border electricity trade andthe development of a regional energy market. TheUnited States also supported the initial feasibility studyfor the 500 MW energy link between India andBangladesh, which is now operational and being expand-ed to 1000 MW. Through the Self Employed Women’sAssociation (SEWA), a prominent Indian NGO, USAIDis funding exchanges between Indian and Burmesefemale entrepreneurs. The second exchange took placein July and brought together dozens of women entrepre-neurs. USAID also recently concluded a trade facilita-tion workshop in Sri Lanka which brought togetherregional leaders to discuss streamlining customs and bor-der procedures. The premise behind these efforts isstraightforward: the economic benefits of increased con-nectivity can generate the prosperity and people-to-peo-ple linkages necessary for strong partnerships based onshared values. This is an objective the United Statesstrongly supports.

There’s also a strategic element. As outlined in theJanuary 2015 Joint Strategic Vision for the Asia-Pacificand Indian Ocean Region, expanding U.S. engagementwith India in the Asia Pacific is an important element ofour bilateral partnership and is a natural complement toIndia’s “Act East” policy. The United States believes thatregional partnerships centered on strong economic ties,people-to-people linkages, and a shared commitment todemocracy and human rights are a force for good, notonly in this region, but around the world.

Areas of Opportunity

Before I close, I want to mention two areas of connectiv-ity that probably don’t get enough attention. The first isvirtual connectivity, by which I mean enhancing digitalconnections across the region. And second is strengthen-ing the connectivity of shared values and ideas – can youhave real connectivity without a common view of what isurgent, important or even objectionable?

Large-scale infrastructure projects, while important, doface many challenges, whether it is financing, land acqui-sition, or government red tape. Many states and citizenshave been left holding the bag and the bill for large scale

international projects that promised the moon, but deliv-ered only cement. That’s why I believe building digitalinfrastructure cannot be ignored. We are experiencingone of the largest technology transitions in human histo-ry; the coming decades will see successive transforma-tions in energy, bioengineering, robotics, artificial intelli-gence, genetics, cyber warfare – you name it. This digitaltransformation is expected to generate as much as $19trillion in economic value over the next decade. To bor-row a phrase, the “internet of things” will be the infra-structure of the information society and bridging the dig-ital divide is instrumental to ensuring our citizens cantake advantage of the new digital economy.

In the United States, we have invested more than $260billion in broadband infrastructure since 2009, and thenumber of households with high-speed internet accesshas increased to over 75 percent. Here in South Asia, theright investments in digital infrastructure can allow com-munities to leapfrog developmental challenges and fur-ther breakdown barriers posed by distance, geography,and governments. John Chambers, the former CEO ofCISCO Systems, once said, “There are two equalizers inlife: the Internet and education.” I think that holds espe-cially true in this region, where the median age is 25. Adigital surge has the potential to revolutionize the waypeople work, travel, and communicate.

The Government of India is making important progressin expanding broadband access through its Digital Indiaprogram, which is supported by many American compa-nies. Facebook launched an innovative “Express WiFi”solution earlier this year to bring the internet to under-served, rural populations in India. Google has partneredwith Indian Railways and RailTel to provide WiFi at over100 railway stations in India, and plans are underway toconnect another 400 by the end of next year. I hope oneday soon internet will be available on Indian airlines aswell! Google WiFi is also working in cities across Assamand West Bengal, including here in Kolkata, to bringinternet access to thousands without it. The basic prem-ise is that communities with greater connectivity, withmore broadband, will have more access to information,more opportunities for trade and education, and will bebetter informed and have greater control over theirfuture. This is a vision that is within our reach.

But finally, and as I’ve noted, connectivity is more thanconstructing bridges and ports– it’s also about building acommon vision based upon shared values and norms,and an open network of exchange that fosters innovativeideas and solutions. It does not mean we need to have

22

the same political systems or political philosophiesstretching across borders. We don’t. What I am suggest-ing however, is that values matter – and especially thosevalues that are universal in nature. Protecting vulnerablepopulations, standing up to terror and insurgency, resolv-ing disputes under the rule of law, combatting childlabor and human trafficking, ensuring women have anequal place in society, ending the scourge of drugs andcorruption – a region that shares strongly values likethese is one that will naturally be drawn together. Andfrom a practical level, that region can develop the operat-ing systems to support common values – that meansgreater coordination at border crossings, that means min-imum labor and environmental protections in cross bor-der transactions, that means greater protections forinvestments, and in the end greater health, prosperityand security for the region. Implementing this will be a

challenge, but clearly strong regional organizations, inter-governmental agreements, and regional events like thisone can help nurture a network where shared values andcommon operating platforms can become the norm, notthe exception. To put it another way, having the rightsoftware for connectivity is arguably more importantthan the hardware of connectivity.

In this endeavor, the United States stands as your part-ner, from the hardware to the software, we will continueto strongly support your efforts to bring this regiontogether. Former Indian Prime Minister ManmohanSingh once famously said he dreams of a region whereone could have breakfast in Amritsar, lunch in Lahore,and dinner in Kabul. We believe the same vision is with-in reach for Kolkata, Kathmandu, Dhaka, Yangon, andbeyond.

23

QUOTABLE QUOTE

Former Iranian president Ali Akbar HashemiRafsanjani, one of the most influential figures in Iransince the Islamic revolution and a driving force for mod-eration, has died at the age of 82 after suffering an appar-ent heart attack, state media reported on Sunday, 8January 2017.

Though his power had waned since serving two terms aspresident from 1989 to 1997, Rafsanjani retained signif-icant clout on the Assembly of Experts that will choose asuccessor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,who is 77 and has been treated for prostate cancer. Hisabsence also could have an impact on presidential elec-tions in May, when the pragmatic President HassanRouhani will seek re-election.

Rouhani, a protege of Rafsanjani, reportedly rushed tothe hospital in Tehran where Rafsanjani was taken onSunday morning. He seen leaving the hospital in tears.

Rafsanjani's death leaves a huge vacuum among moder-ate Iranians who seek reforms in the country's politicallife and economic and cultural openings to the West. Hisfuneral was held on Tuesday, 10 January and analysts willbe looking for clues that signal whether marginalisedreformists will be galvanised to come together or whetherhardliners will consolidate their power.

"It's a loss for the pragmatist and reformist camp," saidBarbara Slavin, acting director of the Future of IranInitiative at the Atlantic Council. "How big a loss

depends on when Khamenei dies, and where Iran is. Itdepends on where relations stand with the United Statesand the international community, whether we're back toa period of hostility, or whether the nuclear deal survivesand there's a kind of detente with the US. And we won'tknow that until our own new president takes office andputs his policies into effect."

Rafsanjani was one of the founding fathers of the IslamicRepublic, and an aide to Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni, theleader of the 1979 revolution. He was involved in the secretnegotiations between Iran and the US in the 1980s that ledto the Iran-Contra scandal. It was one of several Rafsanjaniefforts to find a way to mend relations with Washington.

State-run television announced that he had died "after alifetime of fighting and constant efforts in line with ful-filling the goals of Islam and the revolution".

"Although Rafsanjani has long been identified as a prag-matist, he was an integral part of the Islamic Republic'ssecurity apparatus, one which tortured dissidents andhelped cover the Iranian nuclear program in a shroud ofsecrecy while soliciting foreign assistance and material,"said Behnam Ben Taleblu, an Iran analyst with theFoundation for Defence of Democracies.

But in the eyes of many reformists, Rafsanjani redeemedhimself when he supported the Green Movement afterthe 2009 election contested by protesters demanding the

24

Iran's former president Rafsanjani’s death leaves power vacuum

Carol Morello

Middle eaSt

Former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, pictured in2015, died of a suspected heart attack. Photo- AP

Hassan Khomeini, centre, grandson of Iran's late revolutionaryfounder Ayatollah Khomeini, mourns over the coffin of former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, as Rafsanjani's son Mehdi, second right, comforts his sister Fatemeh at the Jamaran mosque in Tehran on Sunday. Photo: AP

removal of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from office.

"Since 2009, he was the centre of gravity for reformist andmoderate forces," said Hadi Ghaemi, head of the NewYork-based International Campaign for Human Rights inIran. "Now, in a way, they have lost their godfather."

Rafsanjani played a key role in Rouhani's election, evenleading Rouhani into parliament by the hand the firsttime he visited as president. Rouhani, whose administra-tion negotiated the 2015 Iran nuclear deal with the USand five other world powers, is often mentioned as a suc-cessor to become supreme leader once Khamenei dies.But the assumption was that Rafsanjani would be alive tohelp make that happen.

"His chances of winning this power struggle withoutRafsanjani pulling for him in the background is nowreduced," said Trita Parsi, head of the National IranianAmerican Council.

Rafsanjani was born in 1934 to a family of farmers incentral Iran, and studied theology in Qom withAyatollah Khomeini. During the 1960s and 1970s, hetook part in the Islamic student movement opposing theShah, and was imprisoned several times.

Carol Morello is a Senior Contributor at the Sydney Morning Herald.

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Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, right, and former presidentAkbar Hashemi Rafsanjani in 2013. Photo: AP

QUOTABLE QUOTE

“i've read hundreds of books aboutchina over the decades. i know thechinese. i've made a lot of moneywith the chinese. i understand thechinese mind.” ― donald J. trump,the art of the deal

Bangladesh, a densely popu-lated country in southeastAsia, is located in the north-eastern part of Indian sub-continent at the head ofBay of Bengal. Tectonically,Bangladesh lies in thenortheastern Indian platenear the edge of the Indiancraton and at the junctionof three tectonic plates –the India plate, the

Eurasian plate and the Burma subplate. These form twoboundaries where plates converge– the India-Eurasia plateboundary to the north forming the Himalaya Arc and theIndia-Burma plate boundary to the east forming theBurma Arc. The Indian plate is moving ~6 cm/yr in anortheast direction and subducting under the Eurasian (@45 mm/yr) and the Burmese (@ 46 mm/yr) plates in thenorth and east respectively. This continuous motion istaken up by active faults. However, they do so sporadical-ly, primarily in large earthquake ruptures. An active faultin the upper crust tends to be locked so that plate motionis absorbed elastically until stress rises to the breakingpoint and the fault ruptures. Thus the probability of anearthquake from a given fault depends on the rate ofmotion and on the time since the last rupture.

In broad terms, Bangladesh is an earthquake-prone coun-try; its northern and eastern regions in particular areknown to be subjected to earthquakes of magnitudesgreater than 5 on the Richter scale. The geotectonic set-up of the countryand the strain buildup at the converg-ing plate boundaries suggests high probabilities of dam-aging future earthquakes and the possibility of rarer butextraordinarily large earthquakes that can cause damagedeltaic Bangladesh far from their epicenters.

Significant damaging historical earthquakes haveoccurred in and around Bangladesh. The potential formagnitude 8 or greater earthquakes on the nearbyHimalayan and Burmese fronts, whichdepends on therate at which elastic strain is accumulated is veryhigh.The effects of strong shaking from such an earth-quake would directly affect much of the country includ-ing Dhaka. In addition, historical seismicity withinBangladesh indicates that potential for damaging moder-ate to strong earthquakes exist throughout much of the

country. The occurrence of earthquakes and theirdestructions in Bangladesh and neighbouring regions arepoorly documented. Few records of them are available inpublished and unpublished literatures. Large earth-quakes occur less frequently than serious floods, but theycan affect much larger areas and can have long-lastingeconomic, social, and political effects.

The eastern part of Bangladesh and further to the east innortheastern India and Myanmar is characterized by 250km wide and 1400 km long Indo-Burman fold and thrustbelt resulting from the oblique convergence of India-Burma plates. It marks the subduction zone betweentheunder-thrusting Indian plate and overriding Burma plate- a northern extension of the Sumatra–Andaman subduc-tion zone. TheIndo-Burman fold and thrust belt evolvedfrom typical oceanic subduction in the Paleogene to thepresent subaerial subduction of the Ganges-BrahmaputraDelta.Subduction of the thick sedimentary pile has creat-ed the broad accretionary prism thatprograding west-wardin Bangladesh. The deformation front i.e., the lead-ing edge of the locked Burma plate runs near the low ele-vation Meghna estuary to the south and Sylhet marshesto the north. It is further demarcated by the westernmostburied anticlines of the fold and thrust belt, theShahbazpur, Muladi, Kamta structures west of theMeghna River and Chatak structure in Sylhet. This posi-tion is reinforced by variations in the depth of theHolocene/Pleistocene boundary from shallow drilling.

Our recent study demonstrates that the Indo-Burmansubduction in deltaic Bangladesh is active with plate con-vergence of 1.3 to 1.7 m per 100 years and the shallowlyrooted detachment beneath the fold belt is locked and isburied under the deltaic plane in Bangladesh. The east-ern part of Bangladesh sits atop on the locked Burmaplate. A megathrust earthquake occurred along Teknaf-Arakan coast in 1762 and a great earthquake in UpperAssam in 1548 brought remarkable changes in topogra-phy of these regions. A seismic gap exists between thesetwo regions, i.e., in Chittagong-Sylhet segment. This seg-ment was ruptured in the past as evidenced by ~40 kmwestward shifting of Titas River to its present MegnaRiver course. The amount of elastic energy that has beenstored in this seismic gap for over 450 years (it could beeven 1000 years; we have records of historical earth-quakes for only 468 years in the fold felt) is likely to slip>6m of the megathrust with a potential earthquake of

26

Megathrust Earthquake in Bangladesh! Not UnlikelyDr. Syed Humayun Akhter

Mw 8.2+. It is unknown whether the accumulated elasticenergy will be released in a single event or in multipleevents and the rupture will reach all the way to the tip ofthe up dip blind megathrust.

The hazard that is inferred from tectonic analysis isbacked by historic evidence. Bangladesh, a country ofmultiple natural disaster vulnerabilities, and its capitalDhaka are under the looming threat of cataclysmic earth-quakes. Records show that large earthquakes have previ-ously ravaged the country and the neighbouring regionseveral times over the last 450 years. Dhaka is seismicallyactive, but with a low earthquake frequency. There arepotential sources of earthquakes from multiple geologi-cally active faults within 50 to 500 km distance from

Dhaka. The locked megathrust detachment inChittagong fold-thrust belt ofthe Indo-Burman Rangesto the east and DaukiFault to the north acts as potentialearthquake threats to densely populated Bangladesh.The Dauki Fault is the forward jump of the Sikim-Bhutan segment of the Himalayan Frontal Thrust.

DhakaCity is among the 20 major world cities that areat the greatest risk from earthquakes. This risk combinesthe probability of strong earthquakes, the number ofpeople and buildings exposed to this hazard, and theearthquake protection measures in place. The risk ishigh in Dhaka because of its position close to the blindmegathrust and the large number of people, but alsobecause its unplanned urbanization, poorly designedand constructed structures, extremely dense populationand poor preparation for the eventually necessaryresponse to an earthquake. There has been an increasingconcern about the earthquake vulnerability of the pres-ent built environment of DhakaCity. There have beenseveral incidents of building collapses unrelated toearthquake in last 15 years in Dhaka City that have pro-vided impetus to such concern. About 38 percent of thebuildings in Dhaka metropolis, including school andhospitals, are considered vulnerable to strong earth-quakes. The continuing plate motion is being absorbedwithin the earth’s crust as strain energy that willinevitably be released by earthquake ruptures of activefaults. The likelihood of a damaging earthquake from agiven fault increases as the time from the previous largeearthquake increases. It is possible for this energy to bereleased at any moment in a devastating earthquake. Ifthe 1885 Bengal Earthquake or the 1897 Great IndianEarthquake were to recur, or if an earthquake of magni-tude 6 were to occur beneath Dhaka, the situation ofDhaka City with its 12.8 million populations, wide-spread brick masonry, and non-engineered and poorlyconstructed buildings would be worst than ever in thehistory of Dhaka.

Awareness of the earthquake risk has been growingamong the city dwellers due to recent earthquakes in theregion. The scientific community is providing betterunderstanding and monitoring of tectonics and theearthquake process in and around Bangladesh. Thesetwo elements are key to implementing risk-reductionmeasures and they offer Bangladesh the opportunity tocatch up in earthquake preparedness and in reducingearthquake risk in DhakaCity.

Dr. Syed Humayun Akhter is a Professor of the Departmentof Geology, University of Dhaka, Bangladesh.

27

Figure-1: The Sumatran plate boundary continues to the north into theGanges-Brahmaputra Delta, one of the most populous regions of theworld.Assam segment ruptured in 1548. That’s first recorded earthquakein the history. Arakansegment last ruptured in 1762. Produced uplift of3m on St. Martin’s Island, 2.7m on Foul Island, 6.7m on Chedua Island,submergence at Chittagong and clastic dikes at Sitakund anticline.

These days, it is widely saidthat the contemporary erais an era of cross border,regional and multi-nationalcooperation. This is notabout covering the finan-cial and trade aspects only,now multi-national cooper-ation in the field of securi-ty or even national defenseis very much innate andtopical.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) orShanghai Pact has relevance in the above mentioned phe-nomenon. Though founded in 2001, this Eurasian polit-ical, economic, and military organization was like a dor-mant volcano during its first decade. Considering the sit-uation of this planet pro tempore, this organization, how-ever has emerged with gigantic prospects. And theseprospects, still having developing and unexploredaspects, not only covers economic and political issues,but also very much security centric issues also.

Shanghai Cooperation Organization at a Glance

This intergovernmental organization was founded ineastern port city of Shanghai, Peoples Republic of Chinaon 15 June 2001 by six countries, China, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Russia. Duringthe inception of this organization, the main objectives ofthe SCO are to:

• Strengthen relations among member states;

• Promote cooperation in political affairs, economics,trade and commerce, science and technology, cul-tural, and educational spheres as well as in energy,transportation, tourism, and environmental protec-tion;

• Safeguard of regional peace, security, and stability;and

• Create a democratic, equitable international politi-cal and economic order, with assistance from the

Asian Development Bank and the United NationsEconomic and Social Commission for Asia and thePacific.

SCO members have also developed an intergovernmen-tal agreement on facilitating international road trans-port.

Consequently, SCO has extended couple of times, con-taining several observer or dialogue partner states,including some such states which are not seems to besuitable with this organization. Reason behind thisgrotesque opinion of mine point towards countries likeIndia or Israel, which are applied for full membershipand dialogue partner status respectively. At present, itseems that the post-soviet unipolar world order is at abrink of extinction. It is indicative that, there are twopolitical axis, that has been emerged in global context.According to current trend, China and Russia leads anew axis, which is literally against the global politicalaspiration of the United States of America and the West.

This warp and woof has made India a strategic ally ofUnited States of America. On the other hand, Israelhowever has a deep bondage with USA from the verybeginning of its inception. Whereas this is a known factthat the SCO, headquartered in Beijing, is a strategicorganization that is primarily lead by China and Russia.Even some observers believe that, one of the original pur-poses of the SCO is to serve as a counterbalance to TheNorth Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and in par-ticular to avoid conflicts that would allow the UnitedStates of America to intervene in areas bordering bothRussia and China.

Recently, India along with China’s trusted ally Pakistanhas signed the memorandum of accession to the SCO.This indicates that as a multi-national Eurasian strategicorganization, SCO has such importance or all-embracingand general prospects, which can attract countries thatare foes to China, being docile to join the organizationwith a full membership. The SCO as an institution andas a concept represents the greatest potential and in waysis its major paradox as its capacities and their realizationto date are so far apart.

28

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization and Bangladesh’s Prospects and Possibilities

Imran Choudhury

Its full members account for majority of the land mass ofEurasia, and its population is a third of the world’s pop-ulation. With observer states included, its affiliatesaccount for half of the human race. In a contemplativesense, SCO is an alliance of five non-Western civiliza-tions – Russian, Chinese, Muslim, Hindu, and Buddhist.If a potential global entity like BRICS can form as apotential global economic entity, especially having Chinaand India; then SCO could also establish as a promisingnon-western alliance, even which can eventually replacefragile Non Allied Movement (NAM) ideologically.

Bangladesh and SCO

Geographically Bangladesh is situated in a covetablestrategic location, which has the elements of potentials aswell as risks. This toss and catch situation has made usimportant for any bilateral or multinational cooperationand partnership in terms of national security, asBangladesh is in a covetable strategic location. Our geo-strategic situation along with present circumstancesdemands that we should utilize the prospect of SCO.

Meanwhile, in 2012, along with Armenia, Azerbaijan,Belarus, Nepal and Sri Lanka, Bangladesh also appliedfor observer status within the organization. But as I openout earlier that, to grasp the share of potentialities,Bangladesh need to have a full membership within SCO.

The Shanghai Cooperation organization (SCO) hasemerged as a platform of boundless prospects forBangladesh. We have newer and harder security chal-lenges. To overcome these, we need a strong multi-national security partner, which will act as an umbrellaover our security concerns. SCO could be that kind of aplatform for us, perhaps only viable option forBangladesh.

Evermore, a country’s policy must be determined by thegeo-political factors looming around. With all the geo-political corporeality, opportunities are beetling aroundus. This is high time for Bangladesh, and it is an axiomthat every accomplishment owe to a proper timing.

Imran Choudhury is an Online Wright, Syncretistic Political Thinker.

29

There are several signs of a pos-sible turn for the better in theenergy prospects of Caspianstates, and especiallyAzerbaijan. The collapse ofenergy prices appears to havebottomed out. Even prices stag-nating at US$ 40-60 a barrelgives energy producers a certainmargin to cushion the shocksthey will endure. A major

aspect of the Caspian states’ comparative advantage istheir proximity to Turkey and Southeastern Europe. AsEuropean growth recovers, the demand for energy com-ing through those states will likely grow. Yet the perhapsmost encouraging sign is the construction of new capaci-ties to tie together and eventually integrate the Europeanmarket.

BACKGROUND

To be sure, we should not over-exaggerate these trends ordiscount forces making for instability and higher risk butwe should also not simply dismiss the positive signs offuture trends. The aftermath of the abortive Turkish coupof July 15 is producing great and well-deserved anxietyabout Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy future and thereports that Turkey will resume consideration of the TurkStream pipeline from Russia are of particular significance.It is clear that one goal of Turk Stream, beyond isolatingUkraine and splitting the EU, is to minimize if not elim-inate the role of Caspian providers, including Azerbaijan,in Turkey’s gas balance. Thus there is real concern aboutTurkey’s economic, political, and foreign policy agenda,not to mention its political stability. Likewise, reports ofthe renewal of the Burgas-Alexandropoulos oil pipelineportend a parallel Russian effort to undercut Caspian oilexports. Another destabilizing factor is the fact that thereis still no agreement on the legal status and disposition ofthe Caspian Sea and continuing signs of naval buildupsamong the littoral states.

However, while Russia is still trying to promote eitherSouth Stream or Turk Stream, as long as the situation inUkraine remains unresolved, the EU will likely blockthose alternatives as well as the Burgas-Alexandropoulos

oil pipeline. Moreover, it is unlikely that Russia itself hasthe capital to build either of these alternatives, and inany case dispassionate economic analysis of both SouthStream and Turk Stream shows that neither of them areeconomically viable. This opens for not just the continu-ation of the Trans-Anatolian pipeline connecting to theTrans-Adriatic pipeline (TANAP-TAP) for gas, but alsofor the expansion of the interconnector network inSoutheastern Europe.

Specifically the tripartite agreements among Ukraine,Bulgaria, and Romania, on the reversibility of intercon-nectors between Romania and each of the other twocountries, opens up prospects for gas to go from Ukraineto Bulgaria and Greece and further into Europe throughthe TAP or by sea or interconnector to Italy. But giventhe construction of interconnectors between Turkey andBulgaria and between Turkey and Greece as part of theTANAP-TAP pipeline, these agreements also mean thatAzerbaijani and potentially other Caspian gas can now godirectly to Ukraine or to countries in the Balkans otherthan Greece and up the Adriatic coast. Since gas flowsthrough these interconnectors will be reversible,Azerbaijan could ship gas either to Turkey or to Ukraineand it would go from either destination to more distantmarkets in Europe.

In the longer term, as these projects are completed alongwith others further north and west that connect to theseinterconnectors, gas will be able to come to Europethrough multiple ports of entry and go virtually any-where on the continent. When the Lithuanian liquefiednatural gas (LNG) terminal at Klaipeda and the Polishterminal at �winouj�cie come online, they will connect tointerconnectors to the south, which will link up withthose in the Balkans and connect to Ukraine. Assumingrising demand, as most forecasts seem to suggest, by themiddle of the next decade an integrated European mar-ket will be coming into view as a real possibility.

IMPLICATIONS

The gradual and admittedly long-term creation of thisintegrated network will transform the European gas mar-ket and economy, but it will also have a substantial effecton Eurasian politics. These processes and projects, to theextent that they do materialize, will reduce Russia’s and

30

Future prospects for Caspian energyDr. Stephen Blank

any other power’s capability to use gas as a political tool.Just as the international oil market is much less politi-cized because of the diversity and fungibility of oil sup-plies, so too the increasing multiplication of gas supplierswill foster that trend to depoliticize gas supplies. It isimportant to realize that this will not deprive Russia ofgas revenues given the existing infrastructure already inplace, Russia’s gas and oil production capabilities, and itsproximity to European markets. But these trends willsubstantially reduce if not eliminate efforts by Moscow topoliticize the use of gas for its own individual benefit.

Yet all these trends will enhance the security of Caspianproducers and may actually help resolve the thorny issueof the status of the Caspian Sea, which would allow forthe expansion of littoral states’ exports to Europe.Certainly the realization of these projects, and especiallyin a condition of rising demand, will further integrate allCIS producers to Europe in a more intimate and simul-taneously less conflictual manner. The political heat willbe removed from these relationships, which will in timebecome more purely commercial transactions.

Furthermore, to the degree that the integration of a sin-gle European market under EU auspices with commonrules and standards takes shape, the stability of supplyand of markets will benefit both producers and con-sumers. It is quite unlikely that we will see energy pricesskyrocket to the levels of the past, especially given theadvent of renewables, the limits on fossil fuels for envi-ronmental reasons and the globalization of productioncapabilities. However, mutually beneficial equilibriumprices will become a real possibility. In turn, this providesa greater breathing space for producers to secure theirsocieties against the shocks of a boom and bust energymarket that could lead to instability at home since theseproducers depend on energy prices to stay in power. Andsince greater economic integration implies greater politi-cal integration, we could well see a longer-term trend set-ting in to encourage and promote a greater diversifica-tion of capabilities within producing countries, makingthem less vulnerable to the vagaries of the energy marketand thereby broadening the basis of their own stability.

The construction of interconnectors, the attainment ofwhat might be the first signs of a less volatile energy mar-ket and a measure of price stability within a boundedframework, plus signs of rising European demand are allgood auguries for the middle and long-term future. Yet themost important signs are the steady, if slow and unobtru-sive, progress towards building a single European energymarket. This process must be encouraged, not just for thesecurity of European states who consume Eurasian energy.

In the long term, the security of the producers includesRussia, which would benefit from the depoliticization ofenergy and the necessity of building a more broadlybased economy. This would increase the country’s wealthand probably work to break down the astoundinginequality of income and wealth distribution. And as lib-eral political theory observes, to the extent that purelycommercial motives and outcomes supplant geopoliticalones, the incentives to conflict diminish over time.

Moreover, to the degree that international gas is depoliti-cized, producers gain not just security but also substan-tially increased opportunities for marketing energyabroad free of political interference. This includes EastAsia, the new horizon for energy sales. Indeed, if Europecan integrate its gas market under stable rules; that willhave a similar gravitational pull upon Asia, over timedepoliticizing that market and allowing for new infra-structures that bind suppliers and consumers together.

CONCLUSIONS

Admittedly, much can go wrong between today and theprojected dates for the completion of current Europeanand other projects like TANAP-TAP, resulting in moreupheavals and insecurities. But the gradual accretion oftrends now coming into view makes it possible to envi-sion what long-term futures look like if creative and pos-itive leadership is applied to current projects and devel-oping trends. Both political leaders and scholars like totalk about win-win solutions but in fact it is graduallybecoming possible to envision such solutions in the gasand oil markets of Eurasia. Now we must jointly work torealize them.

Dr. Stephen Blank is a Senior Fellow with the AmericanForeign Policy Council in Washington.

31

The passing of King Bhumibol Adulyadej bringsThailand as we know it to a close. Over a seven-decadereign, the late monarch presided over Thailand’s climbfrom a village backwater to a modern nation. His glori-ous reign was enabled by conditions and circumstancesthat were uniquely suited for his leadership. But he hasleft behind a grieving and grateful population who mustnow chart their own path into an uncertain future.

Foreign audiences are easily bewildered by the intenseaffection the Thai people harbour for King Bhumibol.When he celebrated his 60th year on the throne in June2006, hundreds of thousands of Thais lined Bangkok’sthoroughfares to catch a glimpse of their monarch and tocelebrate the milestone with him. In his final twilightthey flocked to the hospital where he stayed in order topray and pay their last respects.

When the leader of Thailand’s junta, Prime MinisterPrayuth Chan-ocha, publicly announced his passing on 13October, 2016 many tears were shed. The Thai people knewthe day would come but they wanted to hang on to the reignfor as long as possible because it had done so well for them.

The Thai people’s treatment of their collective father fig-ure can come across as god worship characteristic ofborn-again evangelicals or the manufactured adulationcommon in North Korea. But in the Thai kingdom, thelate monarch enjoyed reverence and respect that areorganic from the bottom up.

Such adoration derives from the Cold War decades,when Thailand had to go it alone as the last domino thatwithstood communist expansionism in Southeast Asia.In rapid succession during April–May 1975, Cambodiafell to the Maoist Khmer Rouge, Saigon to the NorthVietnamese Army and Laos to communist insurgents.On Thailand’s western front, then-Burma became reclu-sive and autarkic from 1962.

At home, Thailand was poor, beset with regular black-outs, unreliable waterworks and unpaved roads in mostplaces. It was in these early years of economic develop-ment that King Bhumibol exerted efforts beyond the callof duty and built an indelible bond with his people. Hetraversed far-flung corners of the land — at some risk asthe local communist insurgency was making headway —to promote agricultural production, irrigation, infrastruc-ture construction and a myriad of public goods.

A core componentof the Thai nationalidentity, the lateKing lived a modestlife when it couldhave been lavish,and endured hard-ship when comfortwas available. Hegave Thailand a uni-fying, rallying sym-bol behind which tothwart externalthreats and tobelieve in their country’s immense potential in the widerworld.

Detractors and critics will say all that was achieved cameat the great cost of a long period of authoritarian rule bythe military, that development was lopsided in favour ofthe urban elite and that democratic development wasstunted by repeated coups that kept the military–monar-chy symbiosis front and centre in Thai society.

These points are not invalid, but they do not discountthe reality that Thailand would not be where it is todaywithout King Bhumibol as a force of personality who ledby example with unsurpassable moral authority. Hisachievement is self-evident in view of the harsher timesthat befell Thailand’s neighbours over the same period.

By virtue of his success, the late monarch has left behinda modern country that now has to come to new terms.While the military junta will play an instrumental role inthe transition to a new monarch, elections and democrat-ic rule cannot be denied forever. Popular voices have beenheard time and again calling for a collective self-deter-mined future. For this reason, the monarchy KingBhumibol rebuilt will not be the same under his successor.

The imperatives of democratic rule require a 21st centu-ry monarchy, operating within a renegotiated constitu-tional order. Brokering and institutionalising this com-promise is Thailand’s way forward.

Thitinan Pongsudhirak teaches International PoliticalEconomy and directs the Institute of Security and InternationalStudies at Chulalongkorn University in Bangkok.

32

‘Thailand after King Bhumibol’Thitinan Pongsudhirak

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sq k

mGo

vern

men

t typ

e:Fe

dera

l Pr

esid

entia

l Rep

ublic

Capi

tal:

Mos

cow

Foun

ding

:25

Dece

mbe

r 199

1(fr

om th

e So

viet

Uni

on)

Popu

latio

n: M

illio

n pe

rson

s. Ja

nuar

y 01

, 201

6i

Tota

lU

rban

Rura

l

146.

5 74

%26

%

Cons

titut

ion:

The

Con

stitu

tion

was

ado

pted

by

natio

nal

refe

rend

um o

n De

cem

ber 1

2, 1

993

Nat

iona

lity:

Russ

ian(

s)Li

fe e

xpec

tanc

y at

birt

h: 6

5,9

year

s (M

), 76

,7 y

ears

(F)ii

Lite

racy

Rat

e (T

otal

15+

yr;

2007

-201

1):1

00%

iii

Adm

inist

rativ

e Di

visi

ons:

Rus

sia is

mad

e up

of 8

5 fe

dera

l ent

ities

. Som

e of

them

are

cal

led

repu

blic

s, o

ther

s are

regi

ons a

nd th

ere

are

also

aut

onom

ies a

nd c

ities

of f

eder

al im

port

ance

.La

bour

For

ce:T

hous

and

Pers

ons.

201

5iv

Loca

tion:

Nor

th A

sia b

orde

ring

the

Arcti

c O

cean

, ext

endi

ng fr

om E

urop

e (t

he p

ortio

n w

est o

fth

e U

rals)

to th

e N

orth

Pac

ific

Oce

an.

Tota

lM

ale

Fem

ale

8419

943

888

4031

1

Nat

ural

Res

ourc

es:W

ide

natu

ral r

esou

rce

base

incl

udin

g m

ajor

dep

osits

of o

il, n

atur

al g

as,

coal

, and

man

y st

rate

gic

min

eral

s, re

serv

es o

f rar

e ea

rth

elem

ents

, tim

ber.

GDP

at M

arke

t Pric

es (2

015)

: 80,

804

billi

on ro

uble

at c

ur-

rent

pric

esv

Mon

itory

Uni

t: 1

roub

le =

100

kop

ecks

Ge

ogra

phy:

Lar

gest

cou

ntry

in th

e w

orld

in te

rms o

f are

a bu

t unf

avor

ably

loca

ted

in re

latio

n to

maj

or se

a la

nes o

f the

wor

ld; d

espi

te it

s size

, muc

h of

the

coun

try

lack

s pr

oper

soi

ls an

d cl

imat

es (e

ither

too

cold

or t

oo d

ry) f

or a

gric

ultu

re; M

ount

Elb

rus

is Eu

rope

's ta

llest

pea

k; L

ake

Baik

al, t

he d

eepe

st la

ke in

the

wor

ld, i

s est

imat

ed to

hol

d on

e fif

th o

f the

wor

ld's

fres

h w

ater

.Cl

imat

e: (W

inte

r — -1

0°C

Sum

mer

— 2

0-25

°C) T

he R

ussia

n w

inte

r cer

tain

ly g

uara

ntee

s pl

enty

of s

now

and

fros

t but

not

eve

ryw

here

. And

it d

oesn

’t la

stfo

reve

r. Ru

ssia

’s cl

imat

e va

ries d

ram

atic

ally,

from

the

deep

Arc

tic c

hill

of th

e fa

r nor

th to

the

sear

ing

dese

rt h

eat o

f som

e in

land

are

as fu

rthe

r sou

th. Y

et,

thro

ugho

ut m

uch

of th

e co

untr

y th

ere

are

only

two

dist

inct

seas

ons –

win

ter a

nd su

mm

er. S

prin

g an

d au

tum

n ar

e on

ly b

rief s

pells

of c

hang

e in

bet

wee

n.

Maj

or R

elig

ions

: Ort

hodo

x Ch

ristia

nity

, Isla

m, B

uddh

ism a

nd Ju

daism

M

ajor

Lan

guag

e: R

ussia

n; R

ussia

n al

phab

et —

Cyr

illic

RUSSIA

| Fac

tshe

et

Com

pile

d by

:Rum

man

Udd

in A

ham

ed,A

ssoc

iate

Edi

tor,

Risin

g As

ia.

i. Fe

dera

l Sta

te S

tatis

tics S

ervi

ce o

f the

Rus

sian

Fed

erat

ion

ii.

Fede

ral S

tate

Sta

tistic

s Ser

vice

of t

he R

ussi

an F

eder

atio

niii

.U

N_U

NES

CO In

stitu

te fo

r Sta

tistic

s (U

IS)

iv.

Fede

ral S

tate

Sta

tistic

s Ser

vice

of t

he R

ussi

an F

eder

atio

nv.

Fede

ral S

tate

Sta

tistic

s Ser

vice

of t

he R

ussi

an F

eder

atio

n