Introduction

Rising Seas: Mapping the Future of Cape Cod 2050

Cartographer: Anna Cantell Intro to GIS May 10th, 2016 Data Sources: ESRI, MassGIS, Tufts GIS Center (MassGIS), NOAA. References: Cape Cod Commission . March 2010. Barnstable County Cape Cod, Massachusetts Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan. Accessed April

16, 2016. http://www.capecodcommission.org/resources/coastalresources/Final_RegMHM_031910.pdf Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management (CZM). December 2013. Sea Level Rise: Understanding and Applying Trends

and Future Scenarios for Analysis and Planning. Boston, MA. Executive Office of Energy and Environmental Affairs (EEA). Adaptation Advisory Committee. September 2011. Massachusetts

Climate Change Adaptation Report. Chapter 8: Coastal Zone and Ocean. Boston, MA.

Methodology

Findings

Cape Cod is a well-known tourist destinations that attract roughly

500,000 visitors each summer and has a total year-round population of approxi-mately 215,888 people (Cape Cod Commission 2010). Many people are attracted to this area because of the easy access to the coastline and the varied activities people can enjoy. However, in the future some areas may experience coastal inundation from sea level rise due to climate change. The Town of Barnstable in particular has a high rate of repeated flood losses. The purpose on this poster is to understand what the socio-economic impacts of a one-foot sea level rise for the time period 2050 would be for Cape Cod (Barnstable County) through a vulnerability assess-ment. Cape Cod is comprised of 15 towns that make up the mainland of the penin-sula.

The “still-water or bathtub” approach was used in this analysis for mapping coastal sea level rise scenarios to gain a basic understanding of the potential future impact of coastal flooding. The “bathtub” ap-proach does not include dynamic physical processes, such as wave dynamics, storm surge, or landform pro-cesses, but instead uses a set water level and topo-graphic information to assess the impacts of sea level rise (CZM 2013). Therefore, a one-foot sea level rise data was selected for the 2050 time period based from a possible relative sea level rise range for Massachu-setts between 8 – 16 inches, which depends on future emissions (EEA 2011).

Projection Coordinate System: NAD_1983_StatePlane_Massachusetts_Mainland_FIPS_2001 (Meters)

Key Data (Vector):

Residential Land-Use Data

Public Schools Data (K-12)

Commercial & Non-profit Buildings Data

1 FT Sea Level Rise Data

Population Data

Elevation Data

Main Tools:

Clip

Buffer

Select By 1 FT SLR with Population Density for Cape Cod

1 FT SLR with Elevation for Cape Cod

Town of Barnstable 1 FT SLR with Buildings

Cape Cod Overview Map

Town of Barnstable 1 FT SLR with Schools

Town of Barnstable 1 FT SLR with Residen-

tial Land Use

Town of Barn-

stable— 1 FT

SLR Impact

2 Mile Buffer

Zone

Buildings (Commercial & Public) 126 out of 16572

Public Schools 0 out of 72 (2 out-side)

Overall, in the year 2050 Cape Cod can expect to experience coastal inundation from a one foot sea level

rise in the locations depicted on the elevation and overview maps shown on this poster. The Town of Barn-

stable, which is prone to high rates of flood losses was selected to provide a close-up with a two miles buff-

er radius. The two mile buffer radius example showed people living within the area could be impacted. In

the example for the Town of Barnstable, it was estimated that 126 buildings and zero schools could poten-

tially be impacted. The population density map indicates that Cape Cod has low to moderate population

density. The residential land-use map also indicates that low density housing mainly occurs near the one

foot future SLR. To conclude, future studies of Cape Cod will need to conduct analysis on a micro scale to

understand the impacts of sea level rise.