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Rising to Depletion ? Towards a dialogue on the state of national marine fisheries A PROFISH Preliminary Report presented to the World Bank on 26 May 2009

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Outline 1.Introduction 2.The approach 3.The data 4.Selected results 5.Discussion 6.Conclusions

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1. Introduction The study backdrop 90% of stocks are under national jurisdiction and the large majority is under excessive pressure Countries are responsible and committed to restore stocks by 2015 (WSSD POI) but progress is very slow At global level, information on stocks is often scarce, fragmented, too slowly updated and often outdated There is therefore no regularly updated and easily accessible indicator of fishery development level at national, regional or global level

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1. Introduction The study outcome An approach providing a simple, generally available and effective entry point into an interactive fishery reform process The approach is scalable, at sub-sectoral, sectoral, national, regional or global levels It may encourage countries to: Build on their existing efforts, making better use of available statistics Improve the quality of their statistics formalizing their use as indicators and Publicly account for the health of their fishery resources

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2. Approach The development cycle Time I II III IV V Undev. Developing Mature Senescent Recovering Aggregate landings 0 Zero growth Max growthMax landing Relative growth rate

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2. Approach T he phase graph Landings Growth rate 0 Zero growth Max growth Max landing II III I IV V

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Time 0 Landings ( ) II III IV V I Landings 0 I II III IV V 2. Approach The development cycle Landings Growth rate

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Growth Rate or landings Time 0 I II III II III IV? IV III 2. Approach The development cycle

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Landings Growth rate Fluctuation loops 0 2. Approach The phase graph I II III IV V?

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Country B Country A Home Area A Home Area B Limit of the FAO Area Long-range fleets grounds Offshore resources limit Country B Country A Home Area AHome Area B Limit of the FAO Area Offshore resources limit 2. Approach FAO Areas and Home Areas

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3. Data FAO FISHSTAT + landings database Marine capture fisheries 1950-2006 in Home Areas 5 taxonomic categories Total Fishes Bottom Fishes Small Pelagic Fishes Other Fishes Crustaceans 3 indicators (raw and smoothed) Reported landings Annual relative rates of increase Annual landing ratio (L t /L max )

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4. Selected results a.Typical patterns b.World level diagnostic c.Regional level diagnostic d.National level diagnostic e.Other observations

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4a Typical patterns World-Total Belgium-Total Denmark-Total

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4a. Typical patterns Albania - Total Albania-Total Fishes 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 195019601970198019902000 Landings (Tonnes) -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 ROI (%) Albania-Total -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 02.0004.0006.0008.000 Landings (tonnes) ROI (%)

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4b World level Total Fishes Bottom Fishes Pelagic Fishes

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Other Fishes Crustaceans Cephalopods 4b World Level

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Area 21-Total Area 27-Total Area 31-Total 4c Regional Level

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4. Colour coding Time I II III IV % of LMAX LMax 0 50 75 90 100 DevelopingMatureSenescent

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4.C Regional Total Fishes

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4c. Regional - Bottom Fishes

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4.C Regional Bottom Fishes % in development phases

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4d. National level Types of patterns Mature: Cameroon Landings (10 3 t)

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4d. National level Types of patterns

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Total Fishes Nb % Bottom Fishes Nb % Home Areas considered (*)224100224100 Un-conclusive assessment26122310 Not assessed2999442 Total assessed1697910748 Of which - Developing - Mature - Senescent 1 - Senescent 2 52 51 57 9 31 30 34 5 24 34 43 6 22 32 40 6 4d. National level Summary diagnostic *Note: countries bordering more than one FAO Area are counted more than once

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4d. National level Total Fishes Rising to depletion?

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4d. National level Bottom Fishes Rising to depletion?

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4d. National level Rising to depletion? 1952 2004 Home areas Total Fishes Home areas 1952 2004 Bottom Fishes

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4d National level % in development phases

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4d. National level Comparison of patterns

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4e. Other observations Oscillations Environment or business cycles?

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4e. Other observations Pattern similarities Data manipulations or large scale environmental signals?

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4e. Other observations Abnormal patterns Ind. war 1961-74

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5. Conclusion The title 0 Depletion Rising to As the aggregated level of saturation of the sector is reached, the risk of depletion increases

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5. Conclusion The bottom line Countries are responsible for meeting their WSSD commitments A robust country-level indicator on the state of the sector would help counties assess their progress and inform society Existing statistics offer a possibility to be fully examined. They are underused and could be improved Countries can improve on this first proposal through their own efforts. The Bank could help. Country reporting to FAO would also be improved

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5.Conclusions What next regarding the study? Continue peer review Complete the analyses by resource types Case studies (West Africa)

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Senegal (left) Ghana (right) 5 Conclusions

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5. Conclusions What next regarding cases studies ? Identify partner countries : normal, abnormal Check sensitivity to drivers: Integrate stock-specific and sector-wide analyses Integrate development and management Combine with sector-level economic analysis

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1950-2006Future Demise Towards what future? Many thanks for your attention

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1950-2006Future Many thanks for your attention 1950-2006Future Recovery Demise