risk analysis the fundamentals and applications k. subramaniam, lecturer (envt.health) & safety...
TRANSCRIPT
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Risk AnalysisThe Fundamentals and
Applications
K. Subramaniam,
Lecturer (Envt.Health) & Safety
Faculty of Health Science,
UiTM Jpuncak Alam.
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Risk : What is it?
The probability of an adverse
event and the magnitude of the
consequences…
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Risk vs Safety
Nutritious -vs- tasty
#1 rated car -vs- a good car
A contract -vs- agreement
The weather -vs- a bad day
Consider:
Risk is measurable, objective, and based on fixed criteria
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http://www.socialaffairsunit.org.uk/
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Elements of risk
Probability (or likelihood, chance)
Consequences (or impact)
Uncertainty
Ability to manage
There must be a potential ‘hazard’ for risk to exist
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Insurance Coverage for Risks
Company
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Risk Criteria
Choice of action Voluntary or involuntary
Chance for loss Probability or frequency
Magnitude of loss Character, extent, time
Ability to manage Resources, timing
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So, What is Risk Analysis?
A systematic way of gathering,
evaluating, and recording
information leading to
recommendations for a position or
action in response to an identified
hazard
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Why do Risk Analysis?
Before you can manage
something you must be
able to measure it
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Risk Analysis should:
Identify hazards
Characterize risks
Recognize uncertainty
Summarize conclusions
Recommend options
Document the basis for decisions
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Components of Risk Analysis
[Initiation]
Hazard Identification
Risk Assessment Probability, consequences, uncertainty
Risk Management Efficacy, feasibility, impacts
[Risk communication]
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The Hazard Question
What am I afraid will happen??
OR
What is the adverse event??
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Risk Assessment Questions
What information is available?
What is the quantity and quality of information?
What is the probability?
What is the magnitude of the consequences (if I do nothing)?
Should something be done?
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Exposure Assessment
http://www.cdphe.state.co.us/
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Risk Management Questions
What can be done to eliminate or reduce the hazard?
How effective are the options?
How feasible are the options?
What impacts do the options have?
What is the level and type of uncertainty?
What is the best option?
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Risk Matrix
3
2
1
1 2 3
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Variability and Uncertainty
Variability is not reduced with more or better
information
Uncertainty may be:
Modeling or measurement errors
Gaps in information
Out-of-date information
Incorrect assumptions
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Risk Communication
Open, multiple exchanges of information and opinions that lead to better understanding and decisions:
Consulting
Informing
Explaining or justifying
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http://www.epa.gov/oswer/riskassessment/images/risk_web_graphic3.gif
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Transparency
Document information sources
Identify processes/methods
Provide rationale for conclusions and
decisions
Describe uncertainty and identify data
gaps or areas for additional research
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Mitigationrequires
assessment
Risk requires
mitigation
Initiation
Identify hazard(s)
Estimate the likelihood ofoccurrence
Estimate the magnitudeof the consequences
Develop conclusions and describe uncertainty
Develop recommendationsand describe uncertainty
Evaluate mitigation options for: -Efficacy -Feasibility -Impacts
Identify mitigation options
Decisionmaking
Describe the concern which has the need.Understand the background and
expectations.
Evaluate recommendations against current environmentand values to select an option.
Risk Assessment
Risk Management
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http://www.risktaking.co.uk/images/Risk%20orientation%20diagram.jpg
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Benefits of Risk Analysis
a) Justify and defend decisions
b) Evaluate decisions of others
c) Prioritize resources
d) View risk objectively and realistically
e) Identify research and information needs
f) Identify technical points of difference
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http://www.in.gov/idem/images/risk_slide-03.gif
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Risk Screening
http://www.oracle-services.com.au/images/risk_matrix.gif
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The Stakeholders and Important Linkages
Policy makers
Regulators
Researchers
Civil society
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… And the Precautionary Approach?
Rio Declaration (1992) Principle 15
“In order to protect the environment, the precautionary approach shall be widely applied by States...
• lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation.”
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Art 2.2 - “Sufficient scientific evidence”
Is the absence of evidence of a hazard
evidence of absence of a hazard?
A key component of risk analysis is
identifying uncertainty …
A key component of decision-making is
considering the uncertainty.
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The Role of Precaution
In the judgment of the acceptable level
of risk - taking into account the
scientific evidence and uncertainty
In the judgment of strength of measures
- taking into account the scientific
evidence and uncertainty
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Some sources of information….
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More, faster, cheaper…
The Internet
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Integrated Risk Assessment
http://www.eu-vri.eu/images/public/IntegratedRisk.jpg
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References
D.O.E. (2004). EIA Guidelines for Risk Assessment. DOE, 2004.
Griffin, R.L. (2007). Pest Risk Analysis. International Plant Protection
Convention, Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN.
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Thank you…Please ask if
you are in doubt…