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Risk Assessment in Ports
The Contingency Plan for the Port of Huelva
José F. SánchezCentre for Harbour and Coastal Studies, CEDEX
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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CONTENTS
Introduction– OPRC 90– RD 253/2004. PICCMA
Works carried out at CEDEX:– Study of Environmental Conditions– Spill Identification– Study of Trajectories– Study of Weathering– Risk Management (Proposals)
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
Risk Management
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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OPRC 90 Convention
OPRC 90:IMO’s International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Co-operation held in 1990
Parties to the OPRC convention are required to establish measures for dealing with pollution incidents, either nationally or in co-operation with other countries.
Introduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
Risk Management
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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OPRC 90 Convention
• Art 3. Oil Pollution Emergency Plans :– 1) …ships are required to carry a shipboard oil
pollution emergency plan…– 3) …authorities or operators in charge of such sea
ports and oil handling facilities under its jurisdiction…have oil pollution emergency plans or similar arrangements which must be co-ordinated with national systems for responding promptly and effectively to oil pollution incidents
• Art 6. Each Party shall establish a national system for responding promptly and effectively to oil pollution incidents…, including… a national contingency plan for preparedness and response… (6.1.b)
Introduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Spanish Regulations
OPRC 90’s Art 6. Order of February 2nd 2001National Contingency Plan
OPRC 90’s Art 3. Royal Decree 253/2004Internal Contingency Plan against Accidental Marine Pollution (Local Contingency Plan)PICCMA: Plan Interior de Contingencias contra la Contaminación Marina Accidental (in spanish)
Introduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Royal Decree 253/2004, February 13th, that establishes measures for prevention and combating the pollution caused during loading, unloading, handling and bunkering of oils at the sea and harbours
– Art 2: PICCMAs• 2.1 Contents• 2.2 Complementary studies
– Art 4, 5, 7: Combating equipment (countermeasures)– 2 Annexes:
• ANNEX I: Contents of the PICCMA• ANNEX II: Contents of the Complementary Studies
Royal Decree 253/2004Introduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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SECTION I: GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL VARIALBES IN THE AREA OF INFLUENCE OF THE TERMINAL/SHIP
– 1.1 Geographic Location and Coastal Typology– 1.2 Atmospheric and Oceanographic climate– 1.3 Description of the fisheries and aquacultures – 1.4 Natural sensitive / protected areas – 1.5 Touristic areas– 1.6 Hydrology
ANNEX IIIntroduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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SECTION II: STUDY OF THE POTENTIAL SPILLS FATE AND EFFECTS
– 2.1 Identification and description of the most probable incidents causing an oil spill.
– 2.2 Trajectories of a spill produced at any terminal identified in 2.1 and location of the potentially affected areas
– 2.3 Study of weathering of every oil spill in accordance with the oil properties and at any environmental condition
– 2.4 Location of natural or artificial barriers that could act as an obstacle to the spill
– 2.5 Location of areas where it is recommended the oil containment and subsequent recovering and pathways to these areas
ANNEX IIIntroduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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SECTION I: ENVIRONMENTAL VARIALBES– Entirely
SECTION II: POTENTIAL SPILLS FATE AND EFFECTS – 2.1 Spill Identification – 2.2 Trajectories – 2.3 Weathering– The last two parts were not commissioned to CEDEX:
• 2.4 … barriers that could act as an obstacle to the spill • 2.5 … areas … the oil containment and … recovering• Some guidance in the reports
CEDEX COMMISSIONIntroduction• OPRC 90
• Spanish Regulations
• RD 253/2004
• RD’s Annex II
• Works at CEDEX
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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GENERAL DESCRIPTION OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL - ECOLOGICAL CONDITIONS
(Report: October 2004)– Geography– Natural areas– Hydrology– Touristic areas
Results: a Set of maps
Océano Atlántico
RÍO TINTO
RÍO ODIEL
RÍA DEL TINTO Y DEL ODIEL
CANAL DEL CHATE
ESTERO DOMINGO RUBIO
MOGUER
PALOS DE LA FRONTERA
HUELVA
PUNTA UMBRIA
GUBRALEÓN
ALJARAQUE
DEHESA DEL ESTERO Y MONTES DE MOGUERDUNA S DEL ODIELENEBRA LES DE PUNTA UMBRIAESTERO DE DOMINGO RUBIOESTUARIO DEL RIO PIEDRASESTUARIO DEL RIO TINTOLAGUNA DEL PORTILLAGUNA S DE PALOS Y LAS MADRESMARISMA DE LA S CARBONERASMARISMAS DEL ODIELMARISMAS Y RIBERAS DEL TINTO
Lugares de Interes Comunitario (Lic´s)
Introduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
%U
Océano Atlántico
RÍO TINTORÍO ODIEL
RÍA DEL TI NTO Y DEL ODIEL
CANAL DEL CHATE
ESTERO DOMINGO RUBIO
#ASTILLEROS DE HUELVA
#
MUELLE DE THARSIS#
ASTILLEROS DE BACUTA#
MUELLE DE RIO TINTO
#
MUELLE DE LOS GABRIELES# FORET S.A.#
C.A.M.P.S.A.#
FERTIBERIA S.A.
# PUERTO PETROLERO#
MUELLE DE MINERALES#
MUELLE DE SALTES #
C.A.M.P.S.A.#
MUELLE DE JUAN GONZALO
#
A.I.P.S.A.#
MUELLE DE LA TURBA
#
MUELLE DEL VIGIA
# MUELLE REINA SOFIA
#
REFINERIA DE PETROLEO LA RABIDA
REFINERÍA DE PETRÓLEOLA RÁBIDA
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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WINDS INFLUENCE
Local Winds: oil slicks drift
Gulf of Cádiz: shore circulation patterns (current to be added to tidal currents in the outer area)
Introduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
FROM DATA BASES
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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TIDES, WAVES & CURRENTS IMPORTANCE
Tides: – Generate tidal currents– Help the spill to reach high lands
Waves: – Affect the dispersion in the first phases of weathering
Currents:– Main factor in the spill trajectory among with winds– Can generated by
• Tides• Circulation • River discharges
Introduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
NUMERICAL MODELLING WITH MIKE 21 HD
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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TIDES AND WAVES: FIELD / DATA BASEIntroduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
TIDES HUELVA (APRIL 20-21 2004)
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 0:00
Torre Arenilla Odiel Mazagon Caño del Burro
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CURRENTS (I): FIELD SURVEYIntroduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
CURRENTS APRIL 20-21 2004
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
0:00 4:48 9:36 14:24 19:12 0:00 4:48 9:36 14:24 19:12 0:00
RIO ODIEL RIO TINTO CAÑO DEL BURRO
RIVER DISCHARGES:
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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CURRENTS (II): NUMERICAL MODELLING
Numerical Model: MIKE 21 HDDomains:
– Inner– Outer
Scenarios:– Inner(3)
• 3 tides• 1 river discharge
(medium)
– Outer(5)• 5 circulation patterns
Introduction
Environmental conditions
• Environment
• Meteorology
• Oceanography
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Supplied by the involved entities:– Local Port and Maritime Authorities – General Directorate of the Merchant Marine– CEPSA– DECAL ESPAÑA
From technical literature:– (Anderson & LaBelle, 2000) Update of Comparative
Occurrence Rates for Offshore Oil Spills– (ITOPF, 2004) Oil Tanker Spill Statistics: 2003 – (TAP, 2001) Oil Spill Analysis for North Slope Oil Production
and Transportation Operations– (API, 2002) Oil Spill in U.S. Navigable Waters 1991-2000– (US Coast Guard, 2000) Petroleum Oil Spills Impacting
Navigable U.S. Waterways
REFERENCESIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
• Documents of Reference
• Spill type and location
• Probability of occurrence
• Estimation of the volume spilled
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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LOCATION OF POTENTIAL SPILLSIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
• Documents of Reference
• Spill type and location
• Probability of occurrence
• Estimation of the volume spilled
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
12
1110
9 7 - 8 6 5 4
3
2
1
Inner domain
Outer
dom
ain
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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METHODOLOGYIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
• Documents of Reference
• Spill type and location
• Probability of occurrence
• Estimation of the volume spilled
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Determine Occurrence Rate (OR): for each incident typeCalculate Reference Variable (RV): volume moved in 10 yearsμ = OR x RV mean value of the number of incidents of this type during this timePoisson distribution with parameter μ :
0 4 8 12n
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
Pr(n
) Distribución de Poissonμ = 5μ = 0,05
!)Pr(
nen
nμμ−=
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCEIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
• Documents of Reference
• Spill type and location
• Probability of occurrence
• Estimation of the volume spilled
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
PROBABILIDAD DE QUE OCURRAN EXACTAMENTE n INCIDENTES EN 10 AÑOS CON VERTIDOS DE CUALQUIER CANTIDAD
n 1 2 3 4 5Prob 0,11169 0,19113 0,21803 0,18654 0,12768
TUBERÍA SUBMARINA
TORRE ARENILLAS (PETROLEROS)
Todos >136 Tm >1 360 Tm >13 600 TmOPERACIONESCarga/descarga 2,13 0,011 0,002 0,000Bunkering 0,39 0,001 0,000 0,000Otras operaciones 0,83 0,002 0,000 0,000
ACCIDENTESColisiones 0,12 0,004 0,001 0,000Varadas 0,12 0,003 0,001 0,000Fallo estructural 0,16 0,001 0,000 0,000Incendio y explosiones 0,03 0,000 0,000 0,000
Todas las causas 3,77 0,023 0,004 0,001
Nº MEDIO DE INCIDENTES EN 10 AÑOS
Submarine pipeline
Torre Arenillas petrol terminal
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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After a meeting with the parts involved on the issue (port authorities, companies, CEDEX)
– Loading, unloading and bunkering: the volume spilled at the nominal flow rate in 10 min.
– Submarine pipeline: the volume of the pipeline– Tankers and barges for oil transportation: ½ tanks (for
self-motion) capacity + 1/6 cargo– Other vessels: ½ tanks (for self-motion) capacity
VOLUMES ESTABLISHEDIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
• Documents of Reference
• Spill type and location
• Probability of occurrence
• Estimation of the volume spilled
Trajectories
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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NUMERICAL MODELLING (I): HydrodynamicsIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
Numerical Model: MIKE 21 HDDomains:
– Inner– Outer
Scenarios:– Inner(3)
• 3 tides• 1 river discharge
(medium)
– Outer(5)• 5 circulation patterns
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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MIKE 21 PA/SA (particle analysis / spill analysis):– 2D (integrated in depth)– Same domains as in the currents numerical mod.– Trajectory = Drift of an oil particle at the water
surface: Udrif = cw × Uw + cc ×Uc
• Uc (Currents): MIKE 21 HD• cC = 1• Uw (Wind): wind charts• cw = 0.03 (= 3 %)
– Weathering: not evaluated with Mike 21 SA
NUMERICAL MODELLING (II): oil driftIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
¡¡¡INCIDENT!!!
Where?→ Code V03
What ?→ FUEL-OIL (code BA)
How much?→ 10 tons
Currents ?≈ Scenario nº 2 → code: 2_
Winds ?≈ S, 20 km/h → code: SS_1
20Km/h
¡¡INCIDENT!!V03_BM_2_SS
_1”run”
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Variables to combine (I): spill locations
Incident (Spill location): 14 sc.– Spill location– Type of spill
(load/unload, bunkering, collision, etc.)
Hydrodynamics (6 or 5 sc.)– Tide Coefficient (spring
tide, low tide) – Tide Instant (ebb, flow)– Circulation patterns (Gulf
of Cádiz)Local winds (4 or 8 scenarios)
– Intensity – Direction
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
V01. Monobuoy
V02. Pipeline
V03. Deployment
V04. B.Recalada
V05. Pto. MazagónV06. CDF
V01. Monobuoy
V02. Pipeline
V03. Deployment
V04. B.Recalada
V05. Pto. MazagónV06. CDF
V07- 08. R. Sofía
V09. Ing. Juan Gonzalo
V10. T. ArenillasV11. M. Fertiberia
V12. M. Levante
V07- 08. R. Sofía
V09. Ing. Juan Gonzalo
V10. T. ArenillasV11. M. Fertiberia
V12. M. Levante
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Variables to combine (II): winds / currents
NW NE
SESW
NW NE
SESW
NW NE
SESW
– Direction
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
WINDS
CURR
ENTS
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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TIME TO EXPOSURE: OUTER / INNERIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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TIME TO EXPOSURE
Time to exposure (T1): indicates, for each grid element (given by its coordinates x,y), the instant when it is affected by the spill, i.e. the first oil particle passes through it. Hence once the value is set, it do not change. Properties:
– As far as a spill can last for a long time:• It represents the trajectory with one simple graph• It gives some guidance on the trajectory, but not the
trajectory itself, that would require too many figures
– Gives the time when an area starts to be affected– Gives an idea of the velocity of the spill– However:
• Do not give the position of the slick at any time• Do not give the trajectory (position / time) of the slick.
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Zoning (Outer domain)
Having into account the results from the Study of Environmental conditions, i.e.:
– Nature– Value– Etc.
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Results (Outer domain)
Proportion of times that a zone is first area affected by the spill:
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories• Models features
• Modelled scenarios
• Atlas of trajectories
• Location of the affected areas
Weathering
RiskManagement
V01. Monobuoy
V03. Deployment
V01. Monobuoy
V03. Deployment V01: Monobuoy
V03: Deployment zone
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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ADIOS 2 (Automated Data Inquiry for Oil Spills)
Features:– Short term fate model (5d.)– Processes: Spreading,
dispersion, evaporation, emulsification
– Data base > 1,000 oilsInputs:
– Oil– Weather– Water– Spill
Output:– Balance– Processes: spreading, etc.– Properties: viscosity, density
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering• Models features
• Modeledscenarios
• Results
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Reduction of the number of scenarios
– Oil (properties): 2 crude oils (G1 + G3) + 2 products– Weather (wind and waves):
• Dependent (in order to reduce the number of scenarios, tough not entirely valid)
• Calms + Small winds/waves + Strong winds/waves
– Water properties: constant (after a sensitivity study)– Spill size: duration and flow rate (after Spill Id. study)
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering• Models features
• Modeledscenarios
• Results
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Spill data / Budget / EvaporationIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering• Models features
• Modeledscenarios
• Results
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Emulsification(% water in oil / density / viscosity)
Introduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering• Models features
• Modeledscenarios
• Results
RiskManagement
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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After revising model results:– Winds are key in the trajectory of the spill, specially
in the inner domain, given the narrowness of the channel. Here, the wind can drive the slicks towards the coastline, avoiding their transport out of the port.
– Tide coefficient are not as important as thought– Instant of spill (inner): much more important than
tide coefficientIn conclusion:
– The most critical areas are located in the outer port– Thus, it is recommended to locate the containment
equipment close to the port’s entrance
TRAJECTORIES HIGHLIGHTSIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
Risk Management
• Regarding containment
• Regarding oil weathering
Risk Management in Civil Engineering Advanced CourseLisbon, November 17-21 2008
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Light Fuel-Oil (F-O #2) or Gasoil– Use of dispersants not recommended– Containment and recovery with weak winds
Heavy or Medium Fuel Oil (#4 or #6)– Similar to Cat.3 crude oil
Saharan Blend (Cat.1 crude oil)– Containment and recovery with weak winds– Dispersants may be used with strong winds before 10
hrs off the spillMaya (Cat.3 crude oil)
– Containment and recovery are the only combating options given its ability to emulsify
OIL WEATHERING HIGHLIGHTSIntroduction
Environmental conditions
Spill Identification
Trajectories
Weathering
Proposals• Regarding
containment
• Regarding oil weathering