risk assessment/analysis tools for project · pdf filerisk assessment/analysis tools for...
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Risk Assessment/Analysis Toolsfor Project Managers
State Risk Management Team
Greg Davis, Tim Brock, Rob Quigley, and Frank Chupka
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Training Objectives
1. Knowledge of the principles and techniques of risk analysis.
2. Knowledge of project risk threats & opportunities impact to cost and schedule.
3. Knowledge of entering data to identify & quantify project risk threats and opportunities.
4. Knowledge of generating cost & schedule graphs, risk register and other reports.
5. Ability to determine risk-based cost & schedule and the project contingency amount from risk analysis results.
UPDATE THIS
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What is Risk?
Project Management Institute (PMI) Says:
“An uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on the project’s objectives.”
$
S
S
Scope
Schedule
Cost
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Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment’s aim is to assess potential impact of various scope, event, and budget risks on the project’s cost and schedule.
Probability of Occurrence
Impact
Initial Risk
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Risk Management
Probability of Occurrence
Impact
Initial Risk
Managed Risk
Risk Management’s aim is to identify opportunities and mitigation strategies to reduce both the likelihood of an event occurrence and the potential effect if it occurs.
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Qualitative vs Quantitative Risk Analysis
Project Management Handbook, Risk Based Graded Approach Worksheet (Assess riskiness of all project to aide in consultant selection)
Risk Analysis Self Modeling Tool by HDR & SHRP2-R09 Risk Template(total project cost generally under $50 million)
Risk Analysis Workshop and Commercial Risk Modeling Software(total project cost greater than $50 million)
Independent Consultant-led Workshop (complex or major projects with total cost greater than $500 million)
6
What’s in your Tool Box?
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What’s the Risk Based Graded Approach Worksheet?
• PM Handbook – Chapter 19• Initial risk assessment (15 minutes)• Supports consultant selection decision
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What is the Self-Modeling Risk Tool?
• Worksheet with Macros
• Generally under $50 million
• Less than 24 Risk Events
• Needed to Determine “Project Unknowns” Factor in the LRE (i.e. Contingency)
• 3-Day Workshop Not Necessary
• FDOT & Consultants working on FDOT projects!
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What’s the Purpose of the Self-Modeling Tool?
Traditional• Contingency is intended to
include all risk (known & unknown)
• Little control of cost and schedule
• Reactive
Risk-Based Risk are clearly identified and
quantified
Reasonable control of cost and schedule
Proactive
Threat 1, 2, 3, etc.
Opportunity 1, 2, 3, etc.
Contingency
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Range of Cost at Completion
Cost
Time
How Can Cost Risk Analysis Help?
Construction
Open to Traffic
PD&E Design
Letting
Estimate PDC
Estimate Inflated $
As Planned Curve
Better than Planned Curve
Worse than Planned Curve
Range for Completion Date
Source: FHWA
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What are the Outcomesof Risk Management?
• Validation of Project Cost and Schedule
• Managed Risk Response Plan• Identification of high cost and schedule risk
drivers
• Managed District Contingency Box• Reduced Contingency as project evolves
• Understand and Communicate Cash Flow Requirements and Financial Plans
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Risk-based Estimating Process
• Identify Projects
• Project Manager – Estimators Coordination
• Identify Project Risk
• Quantify Project Risk
• Risk Self-Modeling Tool• Enter project parameters
• Enter quantified risk
• Generate cost & schedule graphs
• Generate risk register
• Determine project contingency
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What is needed to Get Started?
• Materials Needed:• Project Information• Long Range Estimate
• Summary by Component • Personnel Needed:
• Project Manager• Estimator• Consultant/Designer• Subject Matter Experts:
• Design• Construction• Other Stakeholders
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How Does It Work?Identify
Assess
Analyze
Response Strategies
Monitor& Control
Plan &Organize
RISK
Plan & Organize
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SHRP2-R09 - Structuring
2-9
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How Does It Work?
Identify
Assess
Analyze
Response Strategies
Monitor& Control
Plan &Organize
RISK
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Risk Management Process
•Where to Start?•Start-up Risk List•Lessons Learned •Project Knowledge•Project History•Team Brainstorming
Identify
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Risk Starter List
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SHRP2-R09 - Risk Identification
Generated by template once risks are categorized 2-18
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How Does It Work?
Identify
Analyze
Response Strategies
Monitor& Control
Plan &Organize
RISKAssess
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Assess
Probability
40%
Impact to Schedule
60 Daysx
Impact to Cost
$100,000x
10% 90%
40%
10% 90%
60 D
10% 90%
0.1M
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
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Risk Assessment
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SHRP2-R09 - Unmitigated Risk Assessment
2-25
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How Does It Work?
Identify
Assess
Response Strategies
Monitor& Control
Plan &Organize
RISKAnalyze
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Risk Analysis
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Risk Analysis
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SHRP2-R09 - Unmitigated Project Performance
Project Schedule Performance (Base vs. Unmitigated)
Note: Base performance results from Step 12-34
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SHRP2 Risk Management Template
HELP Step 07 - Unmitigated Risk Ranking Plots
<==BACK FWD==>HOME
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50
CR-1
PD-8
Mean Severity ($M)
Ris
k
Opportunities - Unmitigated
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70
SC-6PR-1RR-1RR-3RR-8RR-2CR-2CR-4
PD-13PR-2
PD-11CR-3
PD-12PD-14
PD-4SC-3SC-5
PD-16RR-7PD-5PD-6CR-5EP-2RR-6PD-1
PD-15CR-9PR-8PL-2CR-7
Mean Severity ($M)
Ris
k
Threats - Unmitigated
SHRP2-R09 - Unmitigated Risk Ranking Plots
2-36
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How Does It Work?
Identify
Assess
AnalyzeMonitor& Control
Plan &Organize
RISK
Response Strategies
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Mitigation StrategiesRisk Management Process
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Risk Response StrategiesThreats
Risk Factors that Increase Cost or Schedule
Opportunities
Risk Factors that Reduce Cost or Schedule
Avoid: Change the project scope to eliminate the impact of a risk.
Exploit: To make a proactive decision to take action to show that an opportunity is realized.
Transfer: Move a risk to another party who is more capable at handling the risk (such as the developer or insurance company).
Share: Assigning ownership of the opportunity to a third-party who is best able to capture the benefit for the project.
Mitigate: The project team may seek to lessen the impact of a specific risk item, which may involve the consumption of additional time and/or money. Mitigation usually requires positive action and has a cost.
Enhance: Take action to increase the probability and/or impact of the opportunity for the benefit of the project; seeking to facilitate or strengthen the cause of the opportunity, and proactively targeting and reinforcing its trigger conditions.
Accept: To take no action when a response may be too costly to be effective or when the risks are uncontrollable and no practical action may be taken to specifically address it. In active acceptance, the project team sets up a contingency reserve fund to account for the residual expected value of the remaining risks.
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Risk Response Strategies
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Risk Response Strategies
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SHRP2-R09 - Mitigated Project Performance
Project Schedule Performance (Unmitigated vs. Mitigated)
2-51
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How Does It Work?
Identify
Assess
Analyze
Response Strategies
Plan &Organize
RISKMonitor & Control
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Monitor & Control
The Risk Register is the single most powerful Control Tool
Incorporate it in your Progress Reports!
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SHRP2 Risk Management Template
HELP Step 10 - Mitigated Risk RegisterNOTE: Risks and opportunities are sorted by total severity, though the
order should be identical whether using raw severity or percent of total
severity
Risk
Label
Risk Description Risk
Type
Mean
Cost
Impact
(CY $M)
Mean
Duration
Impact
(months)
Mean
Disruption
Impact
(M-Hr)
Mean
Change to
Critical
Path
Schedule
Mean
Severity
(YOE $M)
Percent
of Total
Mean
Severity
Risk
Ranking
based on
Mean
Severity
Retire
Risk ?
RR-8 QDOT helps City pay for water and sewer-line relocation Threat 0.91 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.95 0.16 1 No
PR-1 Uncertainty in construction-cost inflation rate Threat 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.62 0.10 2 No
RR-1 Uncertainty in ROW inflation rate Threat 0.58 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.10 3 No
PD-13 Change in environmental documentation. Threat 0.13 1.00 0.00 1.00 0.38 0.06 4 No
PR-2 Uncertain Design/Build contracting market conditions at time of bid Threat 0.30 0.25 0.00 0.25 0.38 0.06 5 No
SC-6 Provide new lighting throughout project. Threat 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.31 0.05 6 No
RR-3 Unwilling sellers Threat 0.29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.05 7 No
RR-2 Accelerating pace of development in interchange area Threat 0.16 0.38 0.00 0.37 0.26 0.04 8 No
PD-12 Structures impacted by Main Street realignment are eligible for Historic Register. Threat 0.13 0.31 0.00 0.31 0.21 0.03 9 No
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SHRP2-R09 - Mitigated Risk Register
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SHRP2 Risk Management Template
HELP Step 12 - Mitigated Risk Ranking Plots
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0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00
RR-8PR-1RR-1
PD-13PR-2SC-6RR-3RR-2
PD-12CR-4
PD-11PD-14
PD-4CR-3CR-2SC-3SC-5
PD-16RR-7PD-5PD-6CR-5EP-2RR-6PD-1
PD-15CR-9PR-8PL-2CR-7
Mean Severity ($M)
Ris
k
Threats - Residual
0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 0.35 0.40 0.45 0.50
CR-1
PD-8
Mean Severity ($M)
Ris
k
Opportunities - Residual
SHRP2-R09 - Mitigated Risk Ranking Plots
2-53
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• Production Support Office Web Site• Project Management Handbook Chapter 19
• Program Management Office SharePoint Site• Cost Risk Analysis Tools CRA Tools
60
Where can I find the tools?
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Questions?
State Risk Management Team
Greg DavisTim Brock
Rob QuigleyFrank ChupkaKurt Lieblong