Risk Factor Approach

Risk Factor Approach

Risk factors are taken from empirical research conducted for theory testing

Take the best predictors of delinquency and attempt to build a comprehensive understanding as to why youths engage in delinquency

Not theory specific—driven by a public health perspective Focus on factors that:

– Increase the likelihood of delinquency (risk factors), – Reduce the likelihood of delinquency (protective factors)

What are Risk Factors?

Risk factors are empirically supported characteristics that increase the probability that an individual will engage in crime/delinquency.

Risk factors are broken into five domains: • Individual Factors• Peer Factors• Family Factors• School Factors• Community Factors

Individual Factors Age

– Onset, peak, and desistence—age crime curve– Early onset of antisocial behavior

Prenatal and Perinatal factors– Complications while in the fetus and immediately after

birth– Poor breathing – Severe respiratory syndrome– Connection with hyperactivity– Lead exposure– Alcohol exposure

Individual Factors, Continued Antisocial/Aggressive behavior as a child Poor development of empathy, guilt, moral

reasoning Low self-control, impulsivity Lower verbal IQ Substance abuse and mental illness Attitudes favorable toward problem behaviors

Family Factors

Structural Characteristics– Single parent (resources, supervision)– Age of mother (resources, health)– Number of children (>4: delinquent siblings, supervision)– Multigenerational involvement in crime, substance abuse,

and dropping out of school Family Interaction

– Poor parenting practices (poor socialization)– Parent attitudes favorable toward problem behavior – Poor supervision– Poor, inconsistent, or extreme (high & low) discipline– Poor communication/attachment – Neglect/abuse

School Factors

Structural Factors– Grade retention– Use of suspensions and expulsions– Tracking

Functioning Factors– Early antisocial/aggressive behavior– Truancy in early adolescent years– Academic failure– Lack of commitment to learning– Lack of attachment to school setting

Community Factors

Extreme economic deprivation Concentrations of multi-family and public housing units Concentrations of unemployed men Concentrations of younger households Concentrations of single parent families Communities with little collective efficacy Lots of bars and liquor stores Drug markets High levels of violence Availability of firearms, alcohol, and other drugs Norms favorable to drug use and/or crime,

Static & Dynamic Risk Factors

Risk factors are both static and dynamic Static: Characteristics that cannot change

• Age at first referral/adjudication• Number of prior referrals/arrests• Number of out-of-home placements

Dynamic: Characteristics that can change with planned intervention or control of the situation

• School performance and behavior• Substance Abuse & Mental Health Problems• Family stability and control• Peer Relationships

What are Protective Factors?

Protective factors are conditions that counter risk factors or increase resistance to them; thus, inhibiting the development of problems.

Protective factors fall into three areas:1. Individual Characteristics such as temperament,

intelligence

2.Attachment/commitment to prosocial persons, institutions, and values

3.Healthy beliefs and clear standards for behavior

Important Characteristics

Risk, need, and protective factors vary in importance across life stages

Risk, need, and protective factors are cumulative and synergistic rather than additive

The more risk factors one has, the more likely they are to engage in problem behavior; however, the number and combination of factors is not necessarily the same for everytone

An effective justice system response depends on integrating interventions to address risk and protective factors simultaneously

Role of Risk Factor Approach

Program Development– Provides empirical foundation from which

to build programming– Structures interventions most appropriate

Risk Assessment – Predictor of dangerousness– Case management

Handling Risk Handling risk is the primary function of the juvenile court and

juvenile justice agencies—to increase public safety Options for handling risk:

– All offenders can be handled in the same way– Each offender could be handled in a random fashion, largely

dependent on the subjective opinions of the decision-makers– Each offender could be assessed using objective criteria

and given levels of supervision and interventions appropriate to his/her risk and need levels

Which is the best option? Which option occurs most often? Why use an objective tool?

– Accuracy, consistency in the decision-making process– Using resources efficiently—limited resources must be used wisely

Identifying and Managing Offender Risk: Risk Assessment Structured tools/surveys that use risk, need, and

protective factors to objectively determine appropriate types and levels of intervention– Pre-adjudication– Post-adjudication

Utilized to produce a case plan that – Integrates appropriate levels of supervision,

intervention, and treatment (if needed) – Decrease risk and need factors and increase

protective factors; thereby reducing his/her probability for future crime/delinquency

Building Effective Risk Assessments Use of empirically supported information and when available,

instruments that have proven strength and accuracy Inclusion of many decision-makers Clarity on the goal and reason for using a risk assessment

– Pre-adjudication detention– Post-adjudication disposition

• Supervision • Treatment planning

Risk assessments also play a valuable role in holding agencies accountable and evaluating the outcomes of decisions and programming

Example: A risk tool often includes the following:

– Age at First Offense (12 or younger)– Prior Record (Prior Record/Behavior is problematic)– Offense Types (Violent Offenses)– Attitude (Attitudes Favorable to Delinquency)– Personal Relations (Peer Delinquency)– Substance Abuse (Indications of Substance Abuse)– School/Employment (Dropped Out of School (Juveniles Only

and/or Working)– Maltreatment (Juveniles Only—History of Abuse/Neglect)– Overall Impression of Offender’s Risk to Reoffend

Composition of a tool depends on the goal and empirical evidence

Benefits of Risk/Need Assessment Benefits to Youth

– Promotes equitable treatment– Increases accuracy and encourages placement in least restrictive

environment Benefits to Staff

– Promotes equitable treatment– Increases consistency and accuracy– Saves time and energy– Expedites decision-making– Provides explicit justification and support for recommendations/judgments

Benefits to Program, Agency, Jurisdiction– Increases public safety– More efficient use of resources– Useful for program evaluation– Facilitates better control of offenders under supervision in the community

and in institutions

Strengths of Risk Factors and Assessment

Provides a comprehensive picture of the youth and the factors that influence his/her behavior

Allows for “classification” of a youth into levels of risk and need

Using classifications, system increases the chance that programming will be effective

Provides a guide to developing empirically supported programming

Weaknesses of Risk Factors and Assessment There is no magical formula that predicts

delinquency The same combination of factors in one

person may not result in the same behavior as that by someone with the same combination

Risk factors used in justice assessments can predict a problem incorrectly

Risk factor approach provides a road map but is still not a solution to crime

The Results of PredictionActual Behavior

No Violence Violence

Predicted

Behavior

No Violence True Negatives False Negatives

Violence False Positives True Positives

•True Negative=Accurate prediction of no violence

•True Positive=Accurate prediction of violence

•False Negative=Inaccurate prediction—violence did not occur despite prediction; civil liberties/labeling issue

•False Positive=Inaccurate prediction—violence did occur despite prediction; public safety issue