risk factors that predict time to death prediction models ... · pulse oximeter 3-lead ecg arterial...
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Jason ShahinMD Msc FRCPCAssistant ProfessorMcGill UniversityDepartment of Critical Care
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DCD overview
Risk factors that predict time to death
Prediction models that predict time to death
Future research
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•1st cadaveric transplants•Poor outcomes
•Concept of brain death emerges
•Legislation adopted approving neurologicaldefinition of death
•Field of transplantation is opened up
•Due to success organ need outstrips supply
•DCD re-examined
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Criteria used to determine death
Time period required to confirm “irreversible death”
Autoresuscitation
Ethical considerations “violation of the dead donor rule”
Time to death prediction- warm ischemia
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60-120
minutes
Withdrawal of life
support therapy
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Are there risk factors and or models/clinical
decision rules that exist that can accurately
predict the time it will take a patient to die
after withdrawal of life sustaining therapy ?
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Systematic review of the literature
1. Jason Shahin
2. Laveena Munshi
Intensive Care Med (2015) 41:1014
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what are the risk factors/ risk prediction models/clinical decision tools that are associated with and/or predict time to death.
1. In general ICU patients who undergoes withdrawal of life support therapy
2. In potential organ donor who undergoes withdrawal of life support therapy
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Participants Study type Outcome
Pediatric and adults RCT Time to death from WLST
Withdrawal of life sustaining therapy
(mechanical ventilation and or hemodynamic
support)
Observational studies
WLST occuring in a critical care unit
Single centre or multicentre
No case series
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Most variables focus on pre withdrawal physiology and
clinical signs (neuro, cardiac, resp, treatment plan)
Most widely used models (University of Wisconsin)
developed using small sample sizes and require a ventilator
cessation trial
Other models exist but have not been externally validated
Physician assessment may be as good as any model??
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www.ddepict.com
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Sonny Dhanani Principal investigator- Critical Care, Children’s Hospital of Eastern Ontario,
University of Ottawa-Principal investigator
Laura Hornby Clinical Research Project Manager, Montreal Children’s
Hospital Research Institute
Katherine Smith Central coordinator, Loeb Research Chair in organ and tissue donation,
University of Ottawa
Sam Shemie Senior investigator-Critical Care, Montreal Children's Hospital, Chair Loeb
Research Consortium, Faculty of Arts, Univ. of Ottawa
Jason Shahin Lead investigator for complimentary study-time to death prediction tool-
Critical Care, McGill University Health Centre
www.ddepict.com
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DePPaRT
Collaborators/Co-investigatorsCANADA
Andrew Baker
Stephen Beed
Jane Chamber-Evans
Jennifer Chandler
Chip Doig
Peter Dodek
Rob Fowler
Jan Friedrich
Teneille Gofton
Vanessa Gruben
AnneMarie Guerguerian
Christophe Herry
George Isac
Greg Knoll
Jim Kutsogiannis
Lauralyn McIntyre
Maureen Meade
Laveena Munshi
Tim Ramsay
Steven Reynolds
Damon Scales
Jason Shahin
Andrew Seely
Janet Squires
Alexis Turgeon
Bryan Young
US
Tom Nakagawa
Paul Shore
UK
Christian Brailsford
Dale Gardiner
OTHER
Frantisek Duska
TRAINEES
Alvin Li
Loretta Norton
Amanda van Beinum
TEAM
Laura Hornby
Katherine Smith
Nathan Scales
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Criteria used to determine death
Time period required to confirm “irreversible death”
Autoresuscitation
Ethical considerations “violation of the dead donor rule”
Time to death prediction- warm ischemia
Resource use
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www.ddepict.com
DePPaRTstudy
Complimentary study 1
Time to death prediction study
Complimentary study 2
Surrogate decision making in DCD
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Primary Objective To determine the
incidence of autoresuscitation in critically ill adults and children who die in the ICU, following WLST
DePPaRT study
Complimentary study 1
Time to death prediction study
Complimentary
study 2
Surrogate decision making in DCD
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Primary Objective-Complementary study To develop a new
reliable tool to predict time to death following WLST in critically ill adults eligible for DCD
DePPaRT study
Complimentary study 1
Time to death prediction study
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WLST death declaration study end
consented
Waveform review
30 mins
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Inclusion criteria
Patients who have a WLST in an ICU
Age > 1 month
Subjects will have a minimum of the following bedside monitors in place:
▪ Pulse oximeter
▪ 3-lead ECG
▪ Arterial line for B/P
▪ EEG- (a few centres)
Exclusion criteria Declared dead by NDD criteria
Functioning pacemaker
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1. GROUP 1: DCD patients
2. GROUP 2: “DCD Eligible” patients
3. GROUP 3: “DCD non-Eligible” General ICU patients
At least 300
Up to 200
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DATA COLLECTION
Demographic Comorbidities Physiological Imaging (Ct head) Analgesia and sedatives Withdrawal process Intensivist opinion Time to death
ANALYSIS
Multivariable logistic regression analysis
Parsimonious model building
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Step 1-Systematic review, expert opinion
Step 2-Prospective data collection
Step 3Model development
Step 4Model
validation
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Specific, high threshold
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Sensitive, low threshold
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Improved tool with best prediction
Validation studies
Utility and practical use of tool
Do clinicians like or believe it
Cost savings and resource utilization
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Barrier to DCD includes uncertainty about time to death after WLST
Existing data has contributed to understanding of important variables- brain, heart , lungs, treatment related variables
Prediction tools may be insufficient
Future research on death determination being carried out at a hospital near you
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