riskman vision and plans k. holmberg, a. jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 vtt industrial systems, finland

VTT INDUSTRIAL SYSTEMS

RISKMAN VISION AND PLANS, 13.2.2003, K. Holmberg, A.Jovanovic et al

RISKMANVISION and PLANS

K. Holmberg, A. Jovanovic et al

13.2.2003

VTT Industrial Systems, Finland



CONTENT

1. Background argumentation

2. Awareness and available tools

3. RISKMAN vision

4. Structure, roadmap and execution plan

5. Research areas, subprojects and deliverables

5. Consortium management

6. Role of partners

7. Supporting organisations

8. Global budget

9. Calendar for the preparation



Motivation and justificationMain arguments for launching RISKMAN IP:

1.Disasters result in a great number of human losses, large environmental damage, breakdown of societal functions and citizen insecurity

2. Security of urban environment, protection against terrorist attacks and individual sabotage

3. Safety and reliability will in future have a key role in industrial competitiveness, risk management will be a key element in business decision making

RISKMAN improves safety and reliability by systematic risk management



Motivation and justificationRISKMAN will strengthen the European industrial competitiveness as a provider of products, processes and services representing world excellence in terms of safety and reliability.

The novelty of this approach is to integrate fields with strong experience and high level safety and reliability related knowledge and skills with new business opportunities, with applications of new evolving technologies, with public security issues and with legislation aspects to form a holistic concept.



UNDERSTANDING RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES

Forerunner:• NUCLEAR INDUSTRY

High awareness:• CHEMICAL INDUSTRY• POWERPLANTS• AVIATION• OFF SHORE• PROCESS INDUSTRY• ENERGY SYSTEMS

Low awareness:• MARINE TRANSPORT• RAIL AND ROAD TRANSPORT• CONSTRUCTION• MANUFACTURING• CONSUMER PRODUCTS• INFORMATION SYSTEMS• PUBLIC SYSTEMS• FOOD PRODUCTION• SOCIETAL FUNCTIONS



TOOLS AVAILABLE OR UNDER DEVELOPMENT FOR IMPROVED SAFETY AND RELIABILITY

• Probabilistic risk analysis methods

• Condition monitoring: sensors, wireless communication, signal processing

• Diagnostic techniques: neural networks, fuzzy logic, expert systems

• Material and component lifetime estimation

• System modelling and control techniques, meta-modelling

• Design for reliability methods

• Inherent safety in design

• Safety management systems

• Intelligent safety and reliability information management

• Data bases, data collection, data validation

• New business concepts: availability contracts, capacity contracts

• Human behaviour in stressed situations

• Human error analysis

• Organisational interactions

• Training, education

• Legislation, standardisation



RISKMAN Research Areas

RA1. Integrated Approach to Risk Management (meta-modelling, networking, dynamic risk-assesment & safety and risk management grade)

RA2. Systems Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics

RA3. Human-Technology Interaction

RA4. Business Models Promoting Risk

Management

RA5. Public Safety and Environment Protection

RA6. IT and Infrastructural Security



Motivation and justification

There is a need to work out improved techniques, methods and guidelines for better risk management

This is not enough!

We need implementation of safety culture on all levels - both SME:s and large companies that control assets, production, products and services

Safety and risk management should be a key value in the European companies and communities

How is this done?



RISKMAN vision

“20 % of companies and communities in Europe have a Safety & Risk Management Grade (SRMG) in their balance 2008”



SRMG - Safety and Risk Management Grade

Comparable to:• “Basel II” for finance / loans• “Seveso II” for environment• ISO 9001 : 2000

Integrates:• Technical considerations• Business / financial considerations• Environmental considerations• Human factor considerations• Risk perception and communication considerations



RISKMAN Roadmap of RA’s and SRMG

2003

Implementation of Safety and Risk Management Grade concept (SRMG)

RA2. Systems performance monitoring and diagnostics

RA1. Integrated approach to risk management

RA3. Human-technology interaction

RA5. Public safety and environment protection

RA4. Business models promoting risk management



Precise definition of goals, specification and requirements for SRMG

New / alternative methods

Technology

Human factors

Business

Environment

Integration Implementation

2006

RA6. Information technology and infrastructural security

Technology



RISKMAN ROADMAP

OUTPUTRESEARCH AND DEVE-LOPMENT PROJECTS

EVALUATIONPROJECTS

OUTPUT IMPLEMEN-TATION

OUTPUT

RISKMAN VISION:

”20 %have

SRMGin com-

pany andcommu-

nitybalance

year2008”

RA1. Integration of risk management, SRMG concept

RA2. System performance monitoring and diagnostics


RA4. Business models for risk management


RA6. IT and infra-structural security

Guide-lines

Recomm-endations for regu-lations

Quantifi-cation /assess-ment ofSRMG

Corrections

RISKMANCONCEPT

ANDGUIDE-LINES

Pilot n

Pilot 1

Pilot 2

Pilot 3

Pilot 4

Pilot 5

Region n

Region 1

Region 2

Region 3

2003-2006 2007 20082006 2005-2006

2006-2008

Evaluation of effects

and benefits

Commu-nication

andtraining



RISKMAN Structure of Research Areas and Subprojects

RA1 Integra-ted approachto risk manage-ment, Crd:MPA (G), VTT (FI), Risö

RISKMANCoord: VTT (FI),

MPA (G), TNO (NL)

RA2 Systems performance monitoring and diagnosticsCrd: BZF (H),ARC (A), MPA(G),Metlogic (B), Univ.Ljub, VTT(FI)

RA3 Human-technology interactionCrd: CETIM (F),ISPRA (I), VTT(FI), RISÖ(DK),SITEF(N), INERIS(F)

RA4 Business models for riskmanagementCrd: OinetiQ (UK), JRC(I)

RA5 Public safety and en-vironment protectionCrd: TNO (NL),JRC (I), INERIS (F)

RA6 IT and infrastructuralsecurityCrd: AIA (E), Frhr (G), MIT (G), ARC (A)

EC 6FP, TPA3: Nano, materials & processes, 3.4.3.2, DL 6.3.03

EC 6FP: Science and Society, 4.3.3, any time until 9.12.2003

EC 6FP, TPA2: Information society tech, 2.3.2.9, DL 15.10.03



RISKMAN RA1: Integrated Approach to Risk Management

ENVIRONMENTAL“Hazard”

TECHNICAL“Probabilityof Failure”FINANCIAL

“Value at Risk ”

HUMAN“Qualitative”

New Approach:META-MODELLING

SRMG =SAFETY AND RISK

MANAGENEMT GRADE

INTEGRATION



RISKMAN RA1 Subprojects and DeliverablesIntegrated Approach to Risk Management

Coordinator: MPA, Germany Vicecoordinator: VTT, Finland Industrial leader: DVN, Norway?? Alexadar Jovanivitc Raija Koivisto NN

Subprojects: Deliverables:SP11. Meta-Modelling of Complex Systems, VTT, Raija Koivisto, 2004-06, 7 ry, TNO,…..

A novel meta-modelling based genericmethod for risk management of complexnetworks and structures

Result from RA1:

RISKMAN IntegratedMeta-Modelling Rsik

Management Concept=

Integates traditionaltechnical (Probability

of Failure), environmental(Hazard) and fiancial

(Value at Risk) approaches by meta-modelling

techniques

New knowledge aboutintegration of complexproduction, network,

organisational and businessrisk management systems

SP12.



RISKMAN RA2: Systems Performance,Monitoring and Diagnostics

DIAGNOSTIC MUL-TIPLE SOURCEALGORITHMS

WIRELESS ANDREMOTE COM-MUNICATION

NANO- AND MEMSSENSORS

INTELLIGENTLEARNINGSENSORS

FOCUSED INNOVATIVE

APPLICATIONS

LIFE-TIMEPREDICTION AND

CONTROL

INTEGRATION

LOCAL AND RE-MOTE DIAGNOSTIC

CENTERS

PROBABILITYCALCULATIONS

DISTRIBUTED AUTONOMOUS DIAG-NOSTIC NETWORKS



RISKMAN RA2: System Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics

1. Materialdegradation

control

2. Mechanicalcomponent lifetime

prediction

3. Instrumentationlifetime

prediction

4. New sensorapplications, MEMSfibre optical, Bragg

GENERIC DYNAMICAUTOMATIC DIA-

GNOSTIC CONCEPT

5. Multisensordiagnostic

methodology

DIAGNOSTICSAND

PROGNOSTICS

6. Self-diagnostics, learning and tutor fucktions7. Multi-modelling, heuristic, inversion techniques, genetic algorithms8. Probabilisticmethods9. Hybrid dynamic diagnostics: NN,FL, ES, BN10. Remote super-vision, diagnostic networks11. Decision support, safety barriers

SMRG =Safety

andRisk

Mana-gementGrade

APPLICATIONEVALUATIONS IN

Steel plant (SI)Power plant (PL)Off shore rig (NO)Paper machine (FI)Mobile vechicle (FI)SME product (??)

CONDITIONAND LIFETIMEPREDICTIONS,

RISK ESTIMATIONS



RISKMAN RA2 Subprojects and DeliverablesSystems Performance Monitoring and Diagnostics

New methods for life-time prediction resultingin probability estimations of failure risks of devices

and systems

New techniques to usemicro- and nanosensors, wireless communicationand remote diagnostics

in an integrated wayto monitor the condition

and safety of devices

New knowledge aboutintegrating multiple-sensor and -system

information for diagnosticand prognostic purposes

Coordinator: VTT, Finland Vicecoordinator: BZF, Hungary Industrial leader: Metalogic, Belgium??Kenneth Holmberg Lazlo Toth Marnix Surgeon

Actions: Deliverables:

Task 4-5 Multisensor systems andnovel sensor applications, MEMS,fibre optics, Bragg grits, nanosensors

A generic dynamic concept forautomatic diagnostics and prog-nostics

Result from RA2:

Task 6. Self diagnostics, learningand tutor functions, probabilisticmethods

Task 7-9. Hybrid dynamicdiagnostics, multimodelling,

Task 1-3. Material, component andinstrumentation lifetime prediction

Task 10-11. Diagnostic networks,remote supervision, decisionsupport

A method for optimising disag-nostic functions by multisensorapproach and using novel sensortechnology

A probability based methodfor lifetime prediction of mecha-nical and electronic componens

A method for building remotediagnostic centers includinglearning, tutor and decisionsupport functions



RISKMAN RA3: Human-TechnologyInteraction

PROBABILISTICCALCULATIONS

PSYCHOLOGICALAND SOCIOLOGICAL

ANALYSIS

RELIABILITY AND DEPENDABILITY

ANALYSIS

HUMAN COOPERATION

AND COMMUNICATION MODELS

HUMAN-BASED RISK ASSESMENT AND

MANAGEMENT NEW METHODS

INTEGRATIONDECISION MAKINGMODELS

COGNITIVE WORK ANALYSIS

TOOLS FOR THE IMPROVEMENT OF

HUMAN PERFORMANCE

REGULATIONSAND MANAGEMENT

SYSTEMS STANDARDS



RISKMAN RA3 Subprojects and DeliverablesHuman-Technology Interaction

Coordinator: CETIM, France Vicecoordinator: JRC/ISPRA, Italy?? Industrial leader: MIT, Germany??Philippe Lubineau NN NN

Subprojects: Deliverables: Result from RA3:

New methods to measure and express risks related to human and technology inter-action with hybrid qualitative/quantitative techniques

A new approach of companies’ organizationdesign, taking into account formal management and informal norms and values (human behaviour based method).

SP33: influences of the working conditions evolutions (flexibility, automation, globalization, ICT, …) on the informal norms and rules of the organisations

Methods about how to relate theactions of humans in technical systems to estimating its risk probability and consequences

SP30. Transfer or modification of existing knowledge from forerunner domains to industrial areas

SP31. Integrated reliability and psycho-logical analysis method for risk assessment,

SP32: improvement of human performances by the use of new technologies.

Set of indicators about human performance in relation with the SMRG

New tools of monitoring or measurement to improve human performances related to risk management

SP34: operator’s decision making process when unexpected situations arise.



RISKMAN RA4: Business ModelsPromoting Risk Management

DELIVERINGCAPACITY

LONG-TERMAVAILABILITYAGREEMENTS

STRATEGICDECISIONMAKING

SME - SAFETYAND RISK MANA-GEMENT GRADE

INTEGRATION

SECURE NETWORK/SYSTEM

OPERATION

INNOVATIVEACTIVITIES

RISK MANAGE-MENT BUSINESS

MODELS

FINANCIALRISKS

PUBLIC OPINIONRISKS - BRAND &

REPUTATIONRISKS

KNOWLEDGEMANAGEMENT

BENCHMARKING

ENERGYRISKS ADDED VALUE

SERVICES

ORGANISATION MODELS



RISKMAN RA4 Subprojects and DeliverablesBusiness Models Promoting Risk Management

Coordinator: QinetiQ, UK Vicecoordinator: ??? Industrial leader: ???Brian Spedding NN NN

Subprojects: Deliverables:•SP41. PRIKNOW - Risk-related knowledge management for dispersed organisations (VTT)

•SP42. MoRIS - Management of risks in projects and processes for SMEs (STZ R-Tech)

•SP43. ADDS - Added value products in service businesses (VTT)

•SP44. AscRisk - Europortal for assessment and management of commerce and business risks in operation of SME’s and daily life of European citizen (MIT GmbH)

•SP45. FAMEMAIN - Framework methodology for maintenance benchmarking

•SP46 BELIRIEN - Benchmarking liabilities for risks from energy systems (JRC-IE)

•SP47 SME Risk Portal - Providing access to risk management expertise

Result from RA4:

New techniques andmethodologies for handling riskand uncertainty, to assist actors

(especially SMEs) with innovativeactivities and strategic

decision making

Innovative, effective and robust business models that will

deliver capacity,long-term availability

agreements and added value products, in an

environment characterised by multiple and interacting risks

New knowledgeabout the relationship

between value, costs risks and safety

•Innovative methodologies that account for and combine business risk-related factors

•Tools to allow benchmarking of an organisation’s safety maintenance, to drive better equipment availability and safer working environment

•A common framework to compare the treatment of risk in different domain areas

•Effective integration of safety/risk management into revisions of general business models

•A survey and analysis of implementation of safety/risk management in multiple domains

•Toolsets to enable business risk management

•An internet portal to assist SMEs and European citizens to gain access to relevant expertise relating to business risks•Toolsets to facilitate the management of risk-related knowledge



RISKMAN RA5: Public Safety andEnvironmental Protection

DIAGNOSTIC,THERAPEUTICSTRATEGIES

NATURAL ANDMAN-MADE

RISKS

INTEGRAL RISK ASS-ESSMENT OF LARGE

SCALE SYSTEMS

CROWD AND PANICBEHAVIOUR

INFO. & COMM.,DECISION SUPPORTFOR EMENRGENCYRESPONSE TEAMS

SRMG =SAFETY AND RISK

MANAGENEMT GRADE

INTEGRATION

MEDICINE,HOSPITAL & HEALTH

RELATED RISKS

IMPROVEDMETHODS



RISKMAN RA5 Subprojects and DeliverablesPublic Safety and Environment Protection

New methods thatintegrate the risk

assesment of publicand environment

threting activities withcrowd and panic

control and informationsystems for emergency

response teams

New solutions to makestructures more resistant

to fires, explosions, toxic and terrorist

attacks

New knowledge abouthuman behaviour and

how to control it inemergency and panic

situations

Coordinator: TNO, Netherlands Vicecoordinator: ??? Industrial leader: Alps, Austria??NN NN NN

Subprojects: Deliverables:SP51. Integral risk assessment of largescale systems and structures

A

Result from RA5:

SP52. Guideline for public/stakeholderinteraktion for decision making in spatial planning

SP53. Fire and attack resistant structures and conceptual designfor emergency measures

SP54. Model for crowd behaviour inemergency situations

SP55. Management of natural andman-made risks in mountain areas,Univ. Insbruck

SP56. Management of risks pointingtowards human health and humanlife, Steinbeis technologiezentrum



RISKMAN RA6: InformationTechnology and Infrastructural Security

ENVIRONMENTALRISK MANAGEMENT

BY ADVANCED IT

DEPENDABILITYOF IT AND COMUNIC. INFRASTRUCTURES

IT RISKMANAGEMENT

IT SUPPORT FORRISK MANAGEMENT

& DECISION SUPPORTSW TOOLS,

PLATFORMS,ARCHITECTURES

NEW IT RISK MANA-GEMENT SOLUTIONS

AND SRMG FOR IT

INTEGRATION

CIVIL SAFETYAND SECURITYAPPLICATIONS

PUBLIC TRUSTAND CONFIDENCE

IN IT

SAFETY AND SECURITY FRAME-

WOKRS FROM NON-IT SECTORS



RISKMAN RA6 Subprojects and DeliverablesInformation Technology and Infrastructural Security

Coordinator: GROPPO AIA, Spain?? Vicecoord: Frauhofer, Germany?? Industrial leader: ??Marta Pierra Ysern?? Frank Bomarius?? NN

Subprojects: Deliverables:SP61. Photograph transmission servicefor rescue, YIT

A

Result from RA6:

New integrated methodsand platforms for risk

management of information systems and

networks for environmental management and civilsecurity applications

New knowledge aboutthe vulnerability of the

different parts and functions in information

and infrastructural systemsand how they can be

estimated and controlled

SP62.



RISKMAN ROADMAP

OUTPUTRESEARCH AND DEVE-LOPMENT PROJECTS

EVALUATIONPROJECTS

OUTPUT IMPLEMEN-TATION

OUTPUT

RISKMAN VISION:

”20 %have

SRMGin com-

pany andcommu-

nitybalance

year2008”

RA1. Integration of risk management, SRMG concept

RA2. System performance monitoring and diagnostics


RA4. Business models for risk management


RA6. IT and infra-structural security

Guide-lines

Recomm-endations for regu-lations

Quantifi-cation /assess-ment ofSRMG

Corrections

RISKMANCONCEPT

ANDGUIDE-LINES

Pilot n

Pilot 1

Pilot 2

Pilot 3

Pilot 4

Pilot 5

Region n

Region 1

Region 2

Region 3

2003-2006 2007 20082006 2005-2006

2006-2008

Evaluation of effects

and benefits

Commu-nication

andtraining



Need for a Safety and Risk Management Grade

If we by a car - how do we know the risks?• The car company assures the reliability - but

can we trust the company?

How do we know the risk managing level of the company?

• The balance gives us its economical value• The stock market gives the market value based

on balance, expectations, trends etc• But where are the risks evaluated?

We need a value for the Safety and Risk Management Grade in the companies balance!



Safety and Risk Management Grade

We need new methods and techniques to improve safety and reliability

We need guidelines about how to take them into use

We need methods to evaluate how they have been implemented

We need a number to show how safety and risk management has been implemented in companies

This should be a value in the balance



Safety and Risk Management Grade

Same Safety and Risk Management Grade for large and small companies

Same thinking in communities, how safety and security is included in the community balance

Needs hierarchical structure of guidelines

Easy and quick method - big uncertainty

Detailed and large method - accurate and credible

SRMG should be a competitiveness argument like ISO9000 - not mandatory by regulations



Hierarchical SRMG Guideline Structure

SAFETY AND RISK MANGE-GEMENT GRADE (SRMG)

LEVEL OFCONFIDENCE (LC)

SAFETY AND RISKMANAGEMENT LEVEL (SRL)

HIGH = 10

MEDIUM = 5

LOW = 1 Quick Spider-web Estimation (1 p.)Simple Method: - short (5 p.)

- large (20 p.)Moderate Method: - short

- largeDetailed Method: - medium

- largeDetailed Method + internal auditingDetailed Method + external auditingDetailed Method + certification,

accreditation

SRMG=

LCX

SRL



RISKMAN Management and Organisation

Governing Council- Senior partners repr.- External experts - EC representatives- Funding agency´s repr.

Steering Committee- Repr. from partners- IP & RA co-ordinators

Interest Group- Industrial org´s repr.- Interest org´s repr- Societal org´s repr.

Co-ordinators Group- IP co-ordinator- RA co-ordinators

Dissemination Team- Web,seminars,newsletters- Training, regional diss.

Management Team, VTT- IP co-ordinator: K.Holmberg- Administrative officer- Financial officer- Legal adviser

RA1 Scientific Advisory Board- RA1 co-ordinator- RA1 sucoordinator- RA1 Industrial leader- RA1 partners repr.

Delivery Team- Equalising guidelines, regulations, standards,recommendations

RA2 SAB- cord- subc- i.l.- p.r.




ST

EE

RIN

GO

PE

RA

TIO

N

Research Projects Research Projects



Role of participants during IP preparation

Core group:• responsible for the planning phase• participants committed to EoI

+ needed partners from e.g. Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic

Interest Group:• potential partners to participate with projects• are kept informed during the preparation phase



Role of participants during IP preparation

Business Organisations:• companies planned to be involved in the development and evaluation pilot projects

Supporting Organisations:• European and national business sector, legislation, standardisation etc organisations

• key organisations from which we need support



IP Consortium Management

Governing Council:• senior partner representatives, external experts, EC repr., funding agency repr.

Scientific Advisory Boards / RA:• scientific representatives from partners

Steering Committee:• representatives from partners

Consortium: partners

Interest Group: legislation, training etc org:s



IP Global Budget

• Total volume: 70 Me• Annual volume: 14 Me first 4 years and7 Me fifth year + 7 Me for co-ordination (max 6 %)



Calendar for RISKMAN preparation• 21.1.2003, RA expected results and deliverables from RA coordinators• 22.1.2003 Subproject call/template sent out• 3.2.2003, Dead line for subproject proposals• 7.2.2003, Draft from RA co-ordinators on RA content• 15.1.-10.2.2003 :

• Collect numbers for basic argumentation, radical breakthroughs• Contacts to industry in each RA• Contacts to interest organisations, other EC projects and networks

• 13.2.2003, Core Group meeting, Stuttgart 9.00-16.00• 18-28.2.2003, intensive preparation of the final version of the proposal• 26.2.2003, network/video meeting• 4.3.2003, RISKMAN proposal delivered to EC• 6.3.2003 Dead line for Stage 1

riskman vision and plans k. holmberg, a. jovanovic et al 13.2.2003 vtt industrial systems, finland

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