Risks and Rewards of Working with the Federal Government

Daniel S. GaylinExecutive Vice President

Think Tanks and Knowledge Generation

May 15, 2011

Israel Democracy Institute Conference, “What Do Think Tanks Do” Jerusalem

NORC Core Principles

Excellence• Highest academic and

methodological standards

• Ideological independence and transparency

• Commitment to dissemination

Innovation• Leadership in methods

and tools

• Breakthrough technologies

• Flexible business and funding models

Collegiality• Collaborative and open

partnerships

• Interdisciplinary approach, learning culture

• Public discourse

2

Broad array of stakeholders

Long tradition of research in the public interest

Non-partisan, objective, evidence based

Close Affiliate of the University of Chicago

3

Economics and Population Studies

4

Violence, Criminal Justice and the Law

5

Health and Health Care

6

Early Childhood and Education

7

Security, Energy, and the Environment

8

International Development

Ghana Impact Evaluation

9

10

Academic Research Centers: “Yes but does that work in theory?”

Cultural Policy Center• Cultural Infrastructure

• Humanities and Arts Indicators

• Arts Participation

• Policies that Affects the Arts, Humanities and Cultural Heritage

Center for Education Research• Sociology of Education

• Post-Secondary Education

• Education Policy and Quantitative Research Methods

• Mathematics Education

Population Research Center• Children, families, and marriage

• Health

• Poverty and Inequality

• Method and Tools in Demographic Research

Center for the Study of Social Organizations• Social Networks in Various Social Contexts

• Behaviors and Social Structures Influencing STD Transmission • Human Sexuality

• Subjective Well-being

Center for in Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics• Evidence Generation, Knowledge Accumulation, and Principled Judgments

• Factors that Affect STEM Education and Learning

• Factors Affecting the Participation of Underrepresented Groups in STEM Education and Research Careers

Center for Excellence in Survey Research• Cutting-edge Statistical and Methodological Research on Problems of Design and Sampling

• Execution and Analysis of Surveys

• Geospatial Mapping

Center for Study of Politics and Society• Societal and Religious Change and Models to Explain It

• Survey Research Methodology through Experiments and Design Innovations

• Cross-national Research on Socio-demographic Sub-groups

Center on Demography & Economics of Aging• The Social Context of Aging

• Biobehavioral Pathways

• Health Care Research

• Social Relationships, Living Arrangements and Family

11

Think Tanks: Two Paths to Knowledge Generation

Pros• Seen as clean

and unbiased• Allows for

subjective scholarship

• Less risk of co-option

Cons• Smaller pot

• Often comes with strings

• Potentially diminishes opportunities for impact

Path1 : Focus on Private Funding

12

Think Tanks: Two Paths to Knowledge Generation

Path 2 : Focus on Federal Funding

Cons• Increased risk

of bias• Decreases

perceived independence

• Subjective scholarship is more difficult

• Reduced academic freedom

Pros• Large pot• Many highly

relevant opportunities

• Increased opportunity for impact

Maintain a tradition of independent, transparent scholarship

Create Centers of Excellence with acknowledged expertise

Expand and diversify the consumers of data and research

Diversify funding base: public sector (branches), private funds

Path 2: Avoiding the Pitfalls

Ensure bipartisan representation among senior

scholars Multi-year studies that develop into

objective knowledge sources

Conduct methods research to advance

the state of the science

Avoid projects that appear to promote

a political policy agenda

Use multiple funding sources for complementary or replication studies

Convene experts on controversial

results

Publish/disseminate findings of all

projects regardless of funder

FOIA is a key tool to preserve independence

13

14

Data Knowledge Informed Decisions

Key Research Areas, Central Core

Conceptualization/Design

6

Data Collection

6

Advanced Methods & Analysis

6

Evaluation and Assessment

6

Policy Recommendations

6

Defining Knowledge Gaps

6

Knowledge and Discourse

6

General Social Survey: Tracking the Public’s Attitudes on Key Social Issues for 40 Years

Trends of Free Speech, 1972-2010

Trends in Confidence in Executive Branch of Federal Government

by Party Identification, 1973-2010

Trends of Attitudes toward Sexual Behavior, 1973-2010

Trends in Overall and Domestic Welfare Spending, 1973-2010

Trends in Financial Satisfaction and Satisfaction with Work, 1972-2010

Trends of Approving of Gender Equality, 1974-2010

Trends in General and Marital Happiness, 1973-2010

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1972 1973 1974 1976 1977 1980 1982 1984 1985 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Atheist Communist

Racist Militarist

Homosexual Muslim Extremist

Year

%

Allowing

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

%

With

Great

Deal

of

Confidence

Year

Democratic Republican

Nixon (1969-1974)

Ford (1974-1977)

Carter (1977-1981) Reagan (1981-1989)

G.H.W. Bush (1989-

Clinton (1993-2001)

G.W. Bush (2001-2009)

Obama (2009- )

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1972 1973 1974 1975 1977 1978 1982 1983 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Extra-marital sex Teenage sex

Homosexual sex Pre-marital sex

%

Always

Wrong

Year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Support

for

Spending

Year

Overall Spending

Domestic Social Spending

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1974 1975 1977 1978 1982 1983 1985 1986 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

%

For

Gender

Equality

Year

Working mother OK for preschool children Female working outside home?

Female in politics? Working mother warm?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1993 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

%

Very

Happy

Year

General HappinessMarital Happiness

15

16

Florida Ballots Project: All Branchesof Government…and the Press

November 12, 2001

Study of Disputed Florida Ballots Finds Justices Did Not Cast the Deciding VoteBy FORD FESSENDEN and JOHN M. BRODER

A comprehensive review of the uncounted Florida ballots from last year's presidential election reveals that George W. Bush would have won even if the United States Supreme Court had allowed the statewide manual recount of the votes that the Florida Supreme Court had ordered to go forward.

17

Access to Information: Possibility Frontier

18

Optimizing Information Access: Data Enclave

DE Security/support Team

Internet

Locked down thin client with minimal software, hardware

authentication and self-monitoring mechanisms

Network connection control (fixed IP, no DNS resolution,

etc.)

2-factor authentication (optionally biometric)

Enclave Security & Support Center monitors activity and provide remote assistance and system maintenance

Optional facility surveillance/User

authentication•Access sensitive data per use agreement

•Statistical software available for analysis

Data Area

Data Enclave Desktop(Windows Environment)

•Interact with other researchers

•Receive information from data producers

Collaborative Area

•Perform computationally intensive tasks

•Configure environment

Customized Virtual

Machine

19

• Context: Commission investigates the causes, domestic and global, of the 2008 financial and economic crisis.

• Issue: hedge fund data very sensitive, difficult to obtain:

• risk of legal challenges• incomplete reporting. • funds given the “option”: enclave or subpoena

• Challenge: How to preserve firms’ confidentiality while also providing analytically useful data and results?

• Solution: Data Enclave becomes “honest broker” between private sector and government

Information Access: the Data Enclave as An Illustration of Think Tank Impact

Advising (and learning from) Other Think Tanks

Activities•Training in research tools and effective communication•Strengthening institutional management

Short-Term Outcome•Improved think tank performance•Better informed public

Long-Term Outcome•Improved efficiency of government spending•Improved government decision making

20

21

Data Liberación! (Inter)national Indicators for the General Public

Source: State of the USA analysis of OECD data

22

Assisting the Executive Branch in its Reports to the Legislative Branch

Medicaid and CHIP Payment Commission (MACPAC) was created by the Affordable Care Act of 2010.

Reviews Medicaid and CHIP operations and financial status; makes policy recommendations to Congress

This was Commission’s first report, as required by the new legislation

Received widespread bipartisan approval, notable given current climate on Capitol Hill

23

Associated Press/NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

STUDIES:High Social Value

Objective, Non-Partisan

Journalistic Impact

Maximized Public Relevancy

Global Dissemination

Methodological/Scientific Rigor

Deep Subject Matter Expertise

24

Thank You!

Please get in touch: gaylin-dan@norc.org