risks projects - hazard maps

8/10/2019 Risks Projects - Hazard Maps

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Hazard Maps

Fragility and Shake Maps

HONDURAS

- Risk Projects -

Presented by:

David Gutirrez Rivera

101082

January/2014

NHRE- Natural Hazards and Risks in Structural Engineering


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Risk Projects: Hazard Maps Fragility Maps Shake

CONTENTS

Page

Introduction----------------------------------------------------------------------- 4

Preliminaries--------------------------------------------------------------------- 5

1. Fundamentals---------------------------------------------------------------- 71. Fragility2. Performance

i. Capacityii. Demand

3. Probability4. Simulation

2. Fragility Maps---------------------------------------------------------------- 141. Fragility Curves2. Building Stock

3. Construction

3. Shake Maps------------------------------------------------------------------ 191. Ground Motion Prediction Equation (GMPE)2. Sensors Data3. Construction

4. Case Study Honduras----------------------------------------------- 241. Building Stock

i. Fragility Curves2. GSHAP Map3. Fragility Maps4. Shake Maps

References----------------------------------------------------------------------- 33


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LIST OF FIGURES

Page

Fig.1.1 Seismic Hazard Map----------------------------------------------------------------- 5

Fig. 1.2 Loss Estimation---------------------------------------------------------------------- 5

Fig. 1.3 2011 Japan Earthquake ShakeMap--------------------------------------------- 6

Fig. 1.4 Hammurabi, King of Babylon------------------------------------------------------ 8

Fig. 1.5 Damage States---------------------------------------------------------------------- 9

Fig. 1.6 Pushover Analysis------------------------------------------------------------------ 9

Fig. 1.7 Seismic Response Spectra Equations---------------------------------------- 10

Fig. 1.8 EC Seismic Response Spectra------------------------------------------------- 10

Fig. 1.9 Performance Point----------------------------------------------------------------- 11

Fig. 1.10 Normal Probability Distribution------------------------------------------------ 12

Fig. 1.11 Cumulative Probability Distribution------------------------------------------- 12

Fig. 1.12 Numerical Simulation------------------------------------------------------------ 13

Fig. 1.13 Monte-Carlo Simulation--------------------------------------------------------- 13

Fig. 2.1 Fragility Curves-------------------------------------------------------------------- 14

Fig. 2.2 Building Stock Classification--------------------------------------------------- 14

Fig. 2.3 Fragility Curve Construction----------------------------------------------------- 15

Fig. 2.4 Fragility Curve Construction Flow Chart------------------------------------- 16

Fig. 2.5 Fragility Map Construction Flow Chart--------------------------------------- 16

Fig. 2.6 GSHAP MAP----------------------------------------------------------------------- 17

Fig. 2.7 Fragility Curve Adobe Building------------------------------------------------- 17

Fig. 2.8 Table Fragility Data for Adobe Buildings------------------------------------- 18

Fig. 2.9 Fragility Map Adobe Buildings------------------------------------------------- 18


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Page

Fig. 3.1 GMPE (Attenuation Relation)------------------------------------------------- 19

Fig. 3.2 Dahles Attenuation Relation (Depth=30Km)----------------------------- 20

Fig. 3.3 Seimics Sensors LocationsMap---------------------------------------------- 20

Fig. 3.4 Shake Map Construction Flowchart----------------------------------------- 21

Fig. 3.5 Shake Map Earthquake Coordinates--------------------------------------- 22

Fig. 3.6 PGA Calculation using GMPE----------------------------------------------- 22

Fig. 3.7 Honduras Shake Map---------------------------------------------------------- 23

Fig. 4.1 Honduras Building Stock Map------------------------------------------------ 24

Fig. 4.2 Honduras Brick Building Fragility Curve------------------------------------ 25

Fig. 4.3 Honduras Masonry Building Fragility Curve------------------------------- 25

Fig. 4.4 Honduras Concrete Building Fragility Curve------------------------------ 26

Fig. 4.5 Honduras Timber Building Fragility Curve-------------------------------- 26

Fig. 4.6 Honduras Adobe Building Fragility Curve--------------------------------- 26

Fig. 4.7 Honduras GSHAP Map------------------------------------------------------- 27

Fig. 4.8 Honduras Brick Buildings Fragility Map----------------------------------- 28

Fig. 4.9 Honduras Masonry Buildings Fragility Map------------------------------ 28

Fig. 4.10 Honduras Timber Buildings Fragility Map------------------------------ 29

Fig. 4.11 Honduras Adobe Buildings Fragility Map------------------------------- 29

Fig. 4.12 Honduras Overall Fragility Map------------------------------------------- 30

Fig. 4.13 Honduras South Coast Collapsed Buildings--------------------------- 31

Fig. 4.14 Honduras South Coast Shake Map-------------------------------------- 31

Fig. 4.15 Honduras North Coast Collapsed Buildings---------------------------- 32

Fig. 4.16 Honduras North Coast Shake Map--------------------------------------- 32


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INTRODUCTION

In this project we study the theory behind the development of Hazard Maps, specifically

Fragility Maps and Shake Maps. We delve first on the fundamentals we need to know for the

generation of this maps, then we study the theory of Fragility Curves and Fragility Maps and

the theory behind Shake Maps, and finally we apply this knowledge to our Home Country

and develop its respective maps.


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PRELIMINARIES

Hazard Maps

A Hazard Map highlights areas that are

affected or vulnerable of a particular

hazard. They help use describe

qualitatively and quantitatively a specific

area in order to assess its vulnerability toa particular hazard.

The first type of Hazard Map well be studying are the so called Fragility Maps.

Fragility Maps show the vulnerability of

areas in the map with respect to a given

hazard.

Some applications for Fragility Curves and

Fragility Maps are:

Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Construction Code Development

Urban Planning

Loss Estimation Retrofitting

Shake Maps

With Fragility Curves at your disposal for each of this building types and damages states, and

also knowing the expense for repairing this damages on the buildings, we can estimate the

expected annual or monthly loss.

Fig 1.1 Seismic Hazard

Fig 1.2 Loss Estimation


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The other Hazard Map well be studying are Shake Masp.

Shake Maps are a representation of ground shaking produced by an earthquake. Shake Maps

focuses on the ground-shaking produced by the earthquake, rather than the parameters

describing the earthquake source.

Some applications of ShakeMaps are:

Seismological Research

Earthquake Scenarios Preparedness

Emergency Response Loss Estimation

Fig. 1.3 2011 Japan Earthquake ShakeMap


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FUNDAMENTALS

Fragility

It is a measure of part of the Vulnerability of a structure to loads induced by a hazard.

Mathematically, fragility can expressed by:

Where:

Pf is the failure probability for a specific damage state

Sd is the structural demand, and

Sc is the structural capacity.

Fragility of a Structure can be affected by the following aspects:

Type of Hazard (EQ, Wind, Flood,...)

Strength of Hazard

Structural Type

Construction Materials

Soil-Structure Interaction

Risk = Fun ( Hazard, Vulnerability, Cost )


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Performance

Hammurabi, King of Babylon once said:

Article 229: The builder has built a house for a man and his

work is not strong and if the house he has built falls in and

kills a householder, that builder shall be slain.

This is a performance statement. He addressed structural

safety entirely in terms of user requirements, did not statehow to construct the building, and did not refer to building

structure or building materials.

Performance-Based Design

The Performance approach consists of working in terms of Ends rather than Means. It isconcerned with what a building is required to do, and not with how it is to be constructed.

The two main important ingredients in a performance-based design are:

- Capacity

Performance-Based Design Ingredients:

- Demand

With this two parameters we follow with the determination of thePerformance Point.

The we proceed with the check of Structural Behavior under the defined Seismic Action and

your Defined Limit States.

Fig 1.4 Hammurabi, King of Babylon


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Capacity

Is a measure of the maximum load, or any other parameter, a structure can sustain for it to

achieve a predefined damage state. This will depend on the structural system, materials and

other structural attributes that affect the resistance of a structure.

Using Pushover Analysis we can obtain the Capacity of a Structure. The procedure consists on

applying either a small lateral displacement or force to the structure, iteratively increasingthis amount, re-analizing the structure at each step, until the predefined damage state is

obtained.

Fig. 1.5 Damage States

Fig. 1.6 Pushover Analysis


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Demand

Its a measure of the loads, or any other parameter, that a structure would be subjected to by

a given hazard. It will depend on characteristics of the hazard and site conditions, which

affect the overall effect on the structure. Seismic Demand is represented by using Response

Spectra.

A Response Spectra is a plot of the peak or steady-state response (displacement, velocity or

acceleration) of a series of buildings of varying Natural Frequency or Period, forced into

motion by the same base Ground Motion.

Fig. 1.8 EC Seismic Response Spectra

Fig. 1.7 Seismic Response Spectra Equations


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Performance Point

The performance point is the intersection between the capacity and demand

Fig. 1.9 Performance Point


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Probability

Inprobability theory,a probability density function (pdf), or density of acontinuous random

variable,is afunction that describes the relative likelihood for this random variable to take on

a given value.

In probability theory and statistics, the cumulative distribution function (CDF), or just

distribution function, describes the probability that a real-valuedrandom variable X with a

givenprobability distribution will be found at a value less than or equal to x. Intuitively, it is

the "area so far" function of the probability distribution.

Fig. 1.10 Normal Probability Distribution

Fig. 1.11 Cumulative Probability Distribution
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Function_(mathematics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distributionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_distributionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statisticshttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theoryhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Function_(mathematics)http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Continuous_random_variablehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_theory


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FRAGILITY MAPS

Fragility Curves

By assuming material properties and certain other structural attributes that affect the overall

Capacityof a structure, and with additional assumptions about the ground motion and site

conditionsboth factors that affect the seismic Demand,we can deterministically calculate

the performance of a structure.

Naturally, values of these parametersare not exact they invariably have a

measure of both randomness and

uncertaintyassociated with them.

When we take into account this

probabilistic characteristics we generate

what we know as Fragility Curves.

Building Stock

A Classification of the Building Stock

needs to be made in order to develop

their respective fragility curves.

Classification can be made according to:

Structural Type

Building Purpose

Building Quality

Fig. 2.2 Building Stock Classification

Fig. 2.1 Fragility Curves


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Construction

Now well see the process on developing a Fragility Curve and finally getting to the Fragility

Maps. First lets take a look at a Building stock and what data is important to collect from

them in order to develop fragility curves and get to the final destination of a fragility map.

To begin with we need an area of study with a population of buildings.

Then we need to classify these buildings according to some standardized classification

and collect the data from the Building Stock. This classification can be the buildings

general geometry (like in Fig.2.3), number of stories, building materials, quality or age,

usage or purpose etc.

With this a Fragility Curve is developed for each of this type of buildings, by using

simulation procedures like the Monte-Carlo Simulation.

Having the fragility curves we can obtain probability of occurrence of specific damage

state for a specific hazard event, and therefore asses the vulnerability of the area for a

specific hazard, like an earthquake or flooding.

Fig. 2.3 Fragility Curve Construction


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The process of developing a fragility curve generally

involves the following steps:

1) Building Properties Selection2) Structure Idealization3) Inclusion of Structural Variability

4) Pushover Analysis and Limit States Definitions5) Structural Analysis Numerical Simulation Run6) Data Fit to a Probability Distribution Function7) Which becomes the Fragility Curve

The Numerical Simulation run of the Structural Analysis is an iterative procedure were the

input of the structure is randomly generated according to stochastic parameter know of the

hazards and construction materials of the building, like described on section1.4 of Numerical

Simulation.

Fig. 2.4 Fragility Curve Construction Flow Chart

Fig. 2.5 Fragility Map Construction Flow Chart

___________

___________

___________

___________

___________

___________

___________

_________

____


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Now well explain step by step the construction procedure for a Fragility Curve and the Map,

specifically considering a Seismic Hazard for my Home Country.

1) Generate GSHAP Map

Map containing probability of PGA occurrence in a site

2) DefineFragility Curvesfor each of the differentBuilding Types

Fig. 2.6 GSHAP MAP

Fig. 2.7 Fragility Curve Adobe Buiding


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SHAKE MAPS

Shake Maps are a representation of ground shaking produced by an earthquake. Shake Maps

focuses on the ground-shaking produced by the earthquake, rather than the parameters

describing the earthquake source.

Depending on distance from the earthquake, depth, rock and soil conditions at sites, and

variations in the propagation of seismic waves from the earthquake due to complexities in

the structure of the Earth's crust, it produces a range of ground shaking levels at sitesthroughout the region.

Some areas of application for Shake Maps are:

Seismological Research - Calibration of GMPE

Earthquake Scenarios Preparedness

Emergency Response

Loss Estimation

Ground Motion Prediction Equation (Attenuation Relation)

Ground motion prediction equations are statistical models to predict ground shaking on a

site. They can be developed for different tectonic regions (shallow crustal regions,

subduction zones, intra-plate).

Fig. 3.1 GMPE (Attenuation Relation)


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The Attenuation Relation used in our region is the one proposed by Dahle.

DAHLE

Ycan be Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA).

This model is the one applied for the stable tectonic region in Europe.

According to some studies this Dahle model is the most adequate model to predict ground

motion for the Central America region, therefore is the one we will be using.

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

1 10 100

PGA-

g

Distance - Km

Attenuation Relation, Dahle's (depth=30km)

Mw=5.5

Mw=6.0

Mw=6.5

Mw=7.0

Mw=7.5

Mw=8.0

Fi . 3.2 Dahles Attenuation Relation De th=30Km


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Sensors Data

Sensors Data is prioritize over GMPE when

calculating site Ground-Shaking (PGA), IF there is

enough data available.

Interpolation and Extrapolation Schemes must be

implemented to calculate interior and exterior

PGA values, respectively.

Interpolation Methods

Uni-Dimensional

- Linear

- Polynomial

- Spline , others ...

Multi-Dimensional, Spatial

Bilinear

Natural & Nearest Neighbor

Kriging , others ...

Construction

Fig. 3.4 Shake Map Construction Flowchart

_____ ___________

______

__________________

_____

_____

___________

__________

Fig. 3.3 Seimics Sensors Locations Map


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Now well explain the step by step procedure for generating a Shake Map using critical

earthquake scenarios for my Home Country.

1) Earthquake Coordinates and Magnitude

This would mean to locate and determine the Earthquakes Magnitude and Coordinates, if it

event has just occurred, or to decide on the location and magnitude of the earthquake we

would like to study.

2) Calculate Sites PGA using aGMPE

This would mean to locate and determine the Earthquakes Magnitude and Coordinates, if it

event has just occurred, or to decide

Fig. 3.5 Shake Map Earthquake Coordinates

Fig. 3.6 PGA Calculation using GMPE


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3) CalculateProbability of Exceedancefor each and every Site

In the same way it is done for Fragility Maps we calculate the Probability of Exceedance of

each site, using the sites PGA calculate in the previous step.

4) Compile Data and Generate Shake Map

Fig. 3.7 Honduras Shake Map


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CASE STUDY HONDURAS

Building Stock

The Building Stock of my Home Country comprises the following building types:

Concrete

Brick

Masonry

Timber

Adobe

Fig. 4.1 Honduras Building Stock Map


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Fragility Curves

For each of this building types we generated their fragility curves, we used an European

database of Fragility Curves for different Types of Buildings as base to work on, this database

is called SynerG -http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/.

Fig. 4.2 Honduras Brick Building Fragility Curve

Fig. 4.3 Honduras Masonry Building Fragility Curve
http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/


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Fig. 4.5 Honduras Timber Building Fragility Curve

Fig. 4.6 Honduras Adobe Building Fragility Curve

Fig. 4.4 Honduras Concrete Building Fragility Curve


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GSHAP Map

The GSHAP map was used to obtain the PGA for the sites in order to evaluate the fragility of

the sites.

Fig. 4.7 Honduras GSHAP Map


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Timber Building Collapse Damage State

Adobe Building Collapse Damage State

Fig. 4.10 Honduras Timber Buildings Fragility Map

Fig. 4.11 Honduras Adobe Buildings Fragility Map


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Overall Fragility Map Collapse Damage State

Fig. 4.12 Honduras Overall Fragility Map


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SHAKE MAPS

Fig. 4.13 Honduras South Coast Collapsed Buildings

Fig. 4.14 Honduras South Coast Shake Map


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Fig. 4.15 Honduras North Coast Collapsed Buildings

Fig. 4.16 Honduras North Coast Shake Map


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REFERENCES

Seismic Hazard Study Hidroelectric Dam Project Site Tornillito

Eurocode 8 - Design of structures for earthquake resistance

Fragility Curve Development for Assessing the Seismic Vulnerability of Highway

Bridgeshttp://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/resaccom/99-sp01/ch10mand.pdf

http://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation

http://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdf

Performance-based design NHRE 3rd Course Lecture: Risk Projects

Seismic Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation

http://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdf

Application of the Applied Element Method to the Seismic Vulnerability Evaluation of

Existing Buildings

http://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_withou

t%20logo.pdf

Determination of Fragility Curves-http://www.merci.ethz.ch

http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/GSHAP/

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution
http://references/Fragility%20Curve%20Development%20for%20Assessing%20%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20of%20Highway%20Bridges.pdfhttp://references/Fragility%20Curve%20Development%20for%20Assessing%20%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20of%20Highway%20Bridges.pdfhttp://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/resaccom/99-sp01/ch10mand.pdfhttp://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/http://references/Summary%20%20-%20Seismic%20Risk%20Assessment%20and%20Loss%20Estimation.pdfhttp://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdfhttp://references/NHMSE_Performance-based-design_II_pushover.pdfhttp://references/Summary%20%20-%20Seismic%20Risk%20Assessment%20and%20Loss%20Estimation.pdfhttp://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_without%20logo.pdfhttp://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_without%20logo.pdfhttp://references/Jens_MERCI_ISPRA_workshop_20_05_2005.pdfhttp://www.merci.ethz.ch/http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/GSHAP/http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distributionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distributionhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distributionhttp://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/shakemap/http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/static/GSHAP/http://www.merci.ethz.ch/http://references/Jens_MERCI_ISPRA_workshop_20_05_2005.pdfhttp://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_without%20logo.pdfhttp://www.extremeloading.com/upload/Karbassi%20et%20Nollet_CSCE2008_without%20logo.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://references/Application%20of%20the%20Applied%20Element%20Method%20to%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20Evaluation%20of%20Existing%20Buildings.pdfhttp://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdfhttp://references/Summary%20%20-%20Seismic%20Risk%20Assessment%20and%20Loss%20Estimation.pdfhttp://references/NHMSE_Performance-based-design_II_pushover.pdfhttp://web.mit.edu/istgroup/ist/documents/earthquake/Part1.pdfhttp://references/Summary%20%20-%20Seismic%20Risk%20Assessment%20and%20Loss%20Estimation.pdfhttp://www.vce.at/SYNER-G/http://mceer.buffalo.edu/publications/resaccom/99-sp01/ch10mand.pdfhttp://references/Fragility%20Curve%20Development%20for%20Assessing%20%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20of%20Highway%20Bridges.pdfhttp://references/Fragility%20Curve%20Development%20for%20Assessing%20%20the%20Seismic%20Vulnerability%20of%20Highway%20Bridges.pdf

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