Riverina Murray Region – What’s the Housing Demand?Population Forecast The population of the region grew overall by 4% between 2001 and 2016. Only

Hay and Narrandera experienced a decline in population over that time frame. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment have prepared population

and household projections for all of the local government areas in the Riverina Murray region for the period from 2011 to 2036. They forecast three growth scenarios for the region- a low rate peaking in 2021 and then gradual population decline to 2011 levels, a medium growth rate scenario or 6% with population reaching 284,250 by 2026 and a high growth scenario of 12% with population growing to 302,900 by 2039.

Albury, Murray River and especially Wagga Wagga are growth areas, with median scenario growth in Greater Hume, Griffith, Leeton and a high median scenario growth in Coolamon and Junee.

The Aboriginal population of the region was 11,807 at the 2016 Census, or 4.4% of the total, compared with 2.9% for NSW as a whole.

Age The median age of the population in each of the twenty LGAs comprising the

Riverina Murray region continued to increase from 2001 to 2016 and ranges between 35 years (Wagga Wagga) and 49 in Federation and Murray River. Only eight LGAs (Albury, Bland, Carrathool, Griffith, Junee, Leeton, Murrumbidgee and Wagga Wagga) have a lower median age than for the Rest of NSW (excluding the Sydney Statistical Division) of 43.

Berrigan, Federation, Gundagai and Murray River have a higher proportion of people over 65 than the Rest of NSW. The Department of Planning, Industry and Environment forecast a strong increase in residents aged over 65 across this region to 2036.

In contrast, Albury, Bland, Carrathool, Greater Hume, Griffith, Leeton, Murrumbidgee and Wagga Wagga have a higher proportion of people aged 24 and under.

This age profile indicates that a range of housing is required to meet the needs of the community, including family homes, student housing (in a limited number of LGAs) and especially housing suitable for seniors and frail aged. In 2015, over 85% of older Australians lived in private dwellings, with 73% of them owning their own home. 6.6% were in residential accommodation and 6.6% lived in 'other non-private dwellings' such as caravan parks and self-care units in retirement villages. Older Australians strongly prefer to age in place. However, for some, age-specific housing options provide more integrated accommodation and care, offer a way to release home equity, and may delay entry into residential aged care. Although the majority of older Australians own their own home, about 15% of older Australians are renters, and these people are generally a highly vulnerable and economically disadvantaged group with older women being the fastest growing demographic of people experiencing homelessness. There is therefore a need

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for more adaptable, accessible dwellings, well located, secure, low maintenance and affordable to meet the needs of seniors and frail aged in particular, within their communities. Those most in need are households in the private rental market, who struggle to afford housing on an Aged Pension or inadequate superannuation (Source: "Housing Decisions of Older Australians" Productivity Commission December 2015).

The graph below shows the key age cohorts for each LGA in the region at the 2016 Census.

Household Type At the 2016 Census, the bulk of households in the region were made up of

couples without children (27%), lone person households (26%), couples with children (25%) and one parent families (10%). Together, these types of households make up 89% of the total. This is fully consistent with the pattern in the Rest of NSW (excluding Sydney).

The household composition of Aboriginal households in the region varies from this overall pattern: one family couple households with no children make up 17% of total Aboriginal households, lone person households make up 18%, one family couples with children make up 29% and one family one parent households make up 28%. Together these make up 92% of Aboriginal households.

Griffith has the highest proportion of couple families with children (31%) and Berrigan the lowest (20%). Murray River has the highest proportion of couple families without children (33%) and Griffith the lowest (24%). Wagga Wagga has the highest proportion of one parent families (12%) and Murray River the lowest (7%). Albury, Berrigan, Gundegai, and Temora have the highest proportion of lone person households at 29%, and Coolamon the lowest (23%).

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There has been a continued decline in the proportion of couple family with children households in every LGA in Riverina Murray between 2001 and 2016 (2% decline for the whole region) except Wagga Wagga, Albury and Greater Hume Shire. The decline in Hay (27%), Bland ((19%) Edward River (18%) and Lockart (19%) is particularly apparent.

Couple households (no children) have increased significantly in the region (15%) especially in Albury (18%), Murray River (23%) and Wagga Wagga (17%). Contrary to this pattern, couple only households declined in Murrumbidgee by 11%. Notably one parent families increased in all localities (except Hay) with especially strong growth in Bland (32%) Lockhart (35%) Murray River ((32%) and Murrumbidgee (37%). Similarly, lone person households grew in proportion throughout the region by 22% on average, with especially strong growth in Murray River (45%) and Berrigan (35%).

These trends generally hold true for the Rest of NSW (excluding Sydney), with very slow growth in the proportion of couple families with children but significant growth over the period 2011-2016 in couple only families, one parent families, and especially one person households. The Department of Planning, Industry and the Environment predicts a decline in the proportion of couple families with children and an increase in the proportion of lone person households through to 2036 in most of the region except for Albury and Wagga Wagga. In Albury, lone person households will predominate, with couple only households increasing and couples with children showing a slower increase. In Wagga Wagga, couple only households, couples with children and lone person households will predominate. In the more rural areas such as Narrandera, Carrathool, Lockhart, Hay, Gundagai, Murrumbidgee and Edward River all household types will generally decline in numbers. In Federation, Berrigan, Murray River, Snowy Valleys, Temora, Junee and Leeton lone person households and couple only households will mostly tend to increase in numbers (with slight decline in Leeton in the longer term).

This data should be compared with the data on local bedroom numbers to determine if there is a good fit between household types and housing stock.

Although there should be plenty of housing suitable for families of different sizes, there is also a need for a variety of dwellings with different bedroom numbers to suit couples and single person households.

The graph below shows the proportion of the population in each of the key household types in each of the Riverina Murray region local government areas (LGAs) at the 2016 Census.

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Household Size In the Riverina Murray region, 8 LGAs have a higher average household size

than for the Rest of NSW (2.4 persons) while fifteen LGAs have an average household size equal to or lower than the average for the Rest of NSW. Across the region, average household size ranges between 2.2 persons per household (in Berrigan) and 2.7 (in Griffith). Since 1996, average household size has declined or stabilised in every LGA in the region (except Temora) in line with the trend for the Rest of NSW.

The table below gives the average household size in all Riverina Murray region LGAs for 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016.

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AreaAverage

Household Size 1996

Average Household Size 2001

Average Household Size 2006

Average Household Size 2011

Average Household Size 2016

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Albury 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3Berrigan 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.2Bland 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4Carrathool 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.4 2.4Coolamon 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5Edward River         2.3

Conargo 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7  Deniliquin 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.2  

Federation         2.3Corowa Shire 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.3  Urana 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4  

Greater Hume Shire 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.5Griffith 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7Gundagai         2.3

Cootamundra 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3  Gundagai 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5  

Hay 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.3Junee 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5Leeton 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5Lockhart 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5Murray River         2.3

Murray 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3  Wakool 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4  

Murrumbidgee         2.5Jerilderie 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5  Murrumbidgee 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.5  

Narrandera 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.3Snowy Valleys         2.3

Tumbarumba 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3  Tumut Shire 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.4  

Temora 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.4Wagga Wagga 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5Rest of NSW (excludes Sydney SD) 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4

DCJ Local Government Housing Kit Database- Source: ABS, Analysis FACS. Note that data for amalgamated LGAs is provided for 2016.

Income The graph below shows the percentage distribution of low, moderate and high

income households in each LGA in the Riverina Murray region and the Rest of NSW at the 2016 Census.

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Like the Rest of NSW, in all Riverina Murray LGAs low income households comprise the largest proportion of all households. The proportion of low income households ranges from 40% in Wagga Wagga to 55% in Berrigan and Gundagai. Only six LGAs in the region have a lower proportion of low income households than the Rest of NSW average of 48% (Albury, Carrathool, Griffith, Leeton, Murrumbidgee and Wagga Wagga).

Seventeen LGAs had a higher proportion of moderate income households than the Rest of NSW average of 21% and only five LGAs (Albury, Carrathool, Griffith and Wagga Wagga) had a higher proportion of high income households than the Rest of NSW average of 31%.

Between 2006 and 2016 the proportion and number of low income households increased in the region as a whole, but these increases were concentrated in Albury (789) and Wagga Wagga (336). Though there were smaller increases in low income households in Greater Hume Shire, Griffith and Murray River these LGAs, along with all the rest of the region saw a decline in total household numbers. Only Albury and Wagga Wagga showed an increase in household numbers over the period.

Low income renters increased in the region as a whole by 11% or an amount of 1,105 households. This is higher than the Rest of NSW (excluding Sydney) rate of 5.2%. Increases were particularly high in Albury (21.3%), Carrathool (28.6%) and Lockhart (21.4%) - this demonstrates the demand for affordable rental housing is increasing.

Industry Structure The graph below shows the key industry categories in Riverina Murray at the

2016 Census.

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Agriculture, forestry and fishing are dominant in the region, with every LGA (excepting Albury and Wagga Wagga) having a higher proportion working in this sector than the Rest of NSW average of 5.7%. Carrathool has the largest proportion of its activity in agriculture, forestry and fishing, at 46.5% and Murrumbidgee is at 36.4%.

The second most common employment activity in most LGAs is health care and social assistance, with Wagga Wagga at 15.8%, Albury at 15.2% and Lockhart at 14.7%- all higher than the Rest of NSW which is at 14.4%.

Retail trade and manufacturing are the third most common for most LGAs – with Griffith at 18.5% and Leeton at 18.2% in manufacturing and Griffith at 12.2% and Albury at 11.5% in the retail trade.

In contrast, and unlike the other LGAs in the region, Bland has 8.4% of its activity in mining, Murray River has 11.5% of its activity in accommodation and food services, and Coolamon has 10.9% in education and training.

Every LGA in the region had lower proportions employed in financial and insurance services, rental hiring and real estate services, administrative and support services and professional, scientific and technical services than the Rest of NSW average.

The graph below provides an overview of the change in employment in the region from 2011 to 2016:

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-1,500 -1,000 -500 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

192

2

-1,329

-123

636

-1,099

-1,169

144

-227

-74

-277

-53

155

612

-351

541

1,629

28

166

1,942

Change in Industry Employment 2011,2016

Inadequately described/Not statedOther servicesArts & recreation servicesHealth care & social assistanceEducation & trainingPublic administration & safetyAdministrative & support servicesProfessional, scientific & technical servicesRental, hiring & real estate servicesFinancial & insurance servicesInformation media & telecommunicationsTransport, postal & warehousingAccommodation & food servicesRetail tradeWholesale tradeConstructionElectricity, gas, water & waste servicesManufacturingMiningAgriculture, forestry & fishing

Change in number of jobs 2011-2016

Secto

r

Over the period 2011 to 2016 the region lost 3,597 jobs in manufacturing, whole sale and retail trade. There were also losses in public administration and safety, financial and insurance services and transport, postal and warehousing.

At the same time there was an increase of 3,418 jobs in health and social assistance, and growth in education and training, administrative and support services and construction.

Overall, there were 1,308 more jobs in the region between 2011 and 2016. Note that 1,942 jobs were not adequately defined or stated in the Census.

Homelessness In NSW, the number of homeless people increased by 37% between 2011 and

2016. Note that the ABS definition of homelessness identifies a person as homeless where they do not have suitable accommodation alternatives and their current living arrangement:

o Is in a dwelling that is inadequate;o Has no tenure or their initial tenure is short and not extendable; oro Does not allow them to have control of and access to space for social

relations. The number of people sleeping rough in NSW increased by 35% from 2011 to

2016. Severe overcrowding accounts for 45% of all homeless people in NSW. Severe

overcrowding is where usual residents in the dwellings need four or more extra

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bedrooms to meet occupancy standards. The number of people in severely overcrowded dwellings in NSW increased by 74% from 2011 to 2016.

Adjusting for population growth, the rate of young people in the homeless population increased by 31% and there was a 24% increase in the rate for older people. The rate of homelessness is calculated per 10,000 population.

The table below shows the number of homeless people in the Riverina Murray region according to the 2011 and 2016 Census. This is one indicator of unmet housing demand.

Area Total Homeless 2011

Total Homeless 2016

Albury 146 124Berrigan 17 11Bland 7 3Carrathool 6 0Coolamon 17 3Edward River   23

Conargo 3  Deniliquin 16  

Federation   15Corowa Shire 16  Urana 3  

Greater Hume Shire 6 6Griffith 101 140Gundagai   16

Cootamundra 4  Gundagai 3  

Hay 0 5Junee 10 13Leeton 21 31Lockhart 0 18Murray River   18

Murray 9  Wakool 8  

Murrumbidgee   17Jerilderie 0  Murrumbidgee 0  

Narrandera 4 20Snowy Valleys   39

Tumbarumba 3  Tumut Shire 20  

Temora 12 3Wagga Wagga 155 107Total 587 612

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The number of homeless in the region has increased over the period, especially in Griffith. The increase in employment opportunities in Griffith in recent years in the Hanwood chicken processing plant and possible increase in employment in the Murray-Darling Basin Authority has not been accompanied with an increase in the supply of affordable housing, with anecdotal evidence of increased homelessness since the 2016 Census. The proportion of homelessness among Aboriginal people in the region is around 2% and is more apparent in Wagga Wagga and Albury, with people living in improvised dwellings, tents or sleeping out, in supported accommodation for the homeless, staying temporarily with other households, living in boarding houses, in crowded/severely crowded dwellings or in caravan parks

Additional DataMore detailed housing data and tables used in this Snapshot are available from the Local Government Housing Kit Database on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Centre+For+Affordable+Housing/NSW+Local+Government+Housing+Kit/Local+Government+Housing+Kit+Database/

More detailed information and resources on an Ageing Population is available on the Local Government NSW website, in the Resource for an Ageing Population:

http://www.lgnsw.org.au/policy/ageing

More detailed information on population, household and dwelling projections is available on the Department of Planning and Environment website at:

http://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/en-us/deliveringhomes/populationandhouseholdprojections.aspx

More information on homelessness is available on the Housing NSW website at:

http://www.housing.nsw.gov.au/Help+with+Housing/Homelessness/

For more information/statistics on FACS clients by FACS districts:

http://www.facs.nsw.gov.au/facs-statistics

The Productivity Commission’s report Housing Decisions of Older Australians is at:

https://www.pc.gov.au/research/completed/housing-decisions-older-australians

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